Europe Surpasses America--in Crime
By Morgan O. Reynolds, Published in the Wall Street Journal 19-10-98
The conventional wisdom is that the U.S. is the most crime-ridden of modern industrial democracies. Yet the truth is that in many respects we have less crime--and America's crime rate has been declining dramatically.
Property crimes represent about nine out of 10 serious crimes. The burglary rate in Australia is 40% higher than that in the U.S., in Canada 12% higher and in England and Wales 30% higher. Sweden and the Netherlands, despite their reputations as nearly crime-free, have burglary rates 35% and 84% greater than the U.S. Only a few nations, including France and Switzerland, have lower burglary rates than the U.S. The picture is much the same for auto theft.
Locking up criminals reduces crime.
What about crimes of violence? The picture is mixed, but the risk of minor violence is generally no higher in America than in other common law countries (i.e., descendants of the British legal system). The glaring exception is the U.S. murder rate, which is about six times higher than in other industrialized nations. But comparing a country with a diverse population such as the U.S. with other, largely homogenous populations ignores important demographic differences.
Half the murderers and victims in the U.S. are African-Americans, whose victimization rate is seven times that of whites. The white homicide rate in the U.S. is about twice that in Europe, though the gap has been closing because the U.S. murder rate has been falling.
This reflects a broader pattern: As our crime rates have fallen, serious crime rates in England have risen substantially, as a recent study from the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics found. For example, victim surveys show that: The English robbery rate was about half the U.S. rate in 1981, but was 40% higher than America's in 1995. The English assault rate was slightly higher than America's in 1981, but more than double by 1995. The English burglary rate was half America's in 1981, but nearly double by 1995.
Why these dramatic increases in English crime rates, while Americans' lives and property grew safer? The obvious explanation has been too often downplayed or ignored: The U.S. has instituted tougher, more predictable punishment for crime. The study's authors attribute the trends they note to the increasing conviction rates and longer sentences meted out in the U.S., vs. the decreasing conviction rates and softer sentences in England and Wales. English conviction rates for rape, burglary, assault and auto theft have plunged by half or more since 1981, while the likelihood of serving prison time for committing a serious violent crime or a burglary has increased substantially in the U.S. Other relevant social trends have been moving in similar directions in both nations, so they cannot explain the divergent crime trends.
Social scientist Charles Murray points out that the England of 1954 operated on the assumption that the best way to keep crime down was to intervene early and sternly. Crime was very low, and the number of youths picked up by the police went down by about half as children matured from the early teens to their late teens. England today operates on the assumption that the way to deal with crime is to be caring and forgiving toward the young offender. Crime is very high, and the number of youths picked up by the police in the 1990s roughly triples from the early teens to the late teens.
For some time the U.S. criminal justice system also lacked the will or the ability to punish, especially in dealing with juveniles. For example, during the U.S. crime explosion in the 1960s and 1970s, the number of new commitments to prison by the courts for serious predatory crimes actually fell, to 37,000 in 1970 from 40,000 in 1960, while the number of serious crimes reported to the police nearly tripled, to 2.9 million from one million. As a result, the probability of imprisonment for committing a serious crime reported to the police plunged to 1.3% per crime in 1970 from 3.6% in 1960.
But in the past few years deterrence has reasserted itself and has driven crime down. Since 1993 in the U.S.: Murder has dropped 30% as the probability of going to prison for murder has risen 53%. Rape has decreased 14% as the probability of imprisonment has increased 12%. Robbery has decreased 29% as the probability of imprisonment has increased 28%. Burglary has decreased 18% as the probability of imprisonment has increased 14%. Moreover, once in prison, criminals are staying there longer. The median time served by those released has risen since 1993 for every category of serious crime except aggravated assault.
This doesn't mean "root causes" don't matter. Being born out of wedlock and raised in a fatherless household doubles the odds that a young male will become a criminal. But no matter how bad root causes may or may not be, a tough approach pays, especially over the long run. The growth of prison admissions eventually stopped America's rising crime rate and then began to push it back down.
England and Wales are going in the opposite direction. For the safety of their citizens and their property, England and other developed countries should begin the long--and expensive--road back to law and order. And the sooner the better.
