Correlated Parlays - Discussion

[fhmesq44]

With CFB around the corner I figured I would start this to get some thoughts on what makes a parlay correlated enough to provide an advantage. The below link was posted by someone last year and proposes 33%.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Arti...y-formula.aspx

Discussion/Thoughts.

 

[ToddInVegas]

Are there many, if any books that allow correlated parlays?

 

[asufan550]

creditwagering.com i believe

 

[MtrCtyPimp]

Are there many, if any books that allow correlated parlays?

SportsInteraction will let you parlay any margin of victory along with totals...for example tonight you couldve parlayed Padres to win by 7 or more along with the Over 7.....I couldnt believe this when I first heard but its true.

They also let you parlay futures such as Missouri to win both the BIG 12 and the National Title.....freakin retarded if you ask me but if they really take them what the hell......I wouldnt put money in that book but people say that they do pay out.


PEACE

 

[fhmesq44]

depends how correlated the parlays are, 5Dimes will allow them up to a point, which is the case with most books.

Apparently a lot of books will allow it to be played as set forth in #24 below:

http://therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=535373&highlight=correlated+parlay

 

[patswin]

I remember last year being able to parlay NE -24 and over 47 and the jets +24 and under 47 or something like that at bookmaker. I forget the exact number but i was not able to play these at the greek but bookmaker took them

 

[CapNCash]

i thot it was 40% to be correlated

 

[ensign_lee]

Funny how little discussion actually happens when a topic that actually has substance comes up.

Threads like this and that bankroll management thread with calculus involved should be the ones with the most replies, not the least.

 

[Snookslayer]

This is the first time I've ever heard of correlated parlays. After reading the link I get the idea behind it... when the point spread is 33% or more than the total, parlay the favorite + over and parlay the dog + under.

According to the link, betting that system in college football games (which meet the 33% criteria) early in the season, will result in a profit - in spite of the fact that some games will lose both parlays.

Interesting. I wonder what the final tally was for all of last season's college football.

 

[CapNCash]

has anyone tried teasing the correlated ones instead of parlaying them? I would like to see the math on that. just too lazy to do it

 

[~Falco~]

With CFB around the corner I figured I would start this to get some thoughts on what makes a parlay correlated enough to provide an advantage. The below link was posted by someone last year and proposes 33%.


Correlated enough???:lol:

As Forrest would say, "Stupid is as stupid does" There is no such thing as correlation between 2 mutually exclusive events meaning there is no cause and effect. There is no correlation between the Total and the Side, it just appears that way, an illusion you might say.

But it gets worse, lets say you reside in a parallel universe and a correlation does exist. Then you would have to buck the following basic parlay math :

WW=W
WL=L
WT=L
LL+L

Notice that out of the 4 possible outcomes to your parlay bet only one of them is a winner.

1 winning outcome that is 3 to 1 against you winning your wager. If you do win, do they pay you 3 to 1 odds? Of course not. Its butt ugly odds against you . (Some places will give a straight up win on that WT or a Tie and give your money back so its 2 to 1 against).

Again IF there was such a thing as correlation the odds are completely skewed in their favor.

Sucker bets are for people that don't have a basic understanding of math.

If you have a desire to bet Parlays after understanding the simple math may I recommend GA.

 

[Snookslayer]

If you have a desire to bet Parlays after understanding the simple math may I recommend GA.

The day I realized the math, I quit parlays. Less reward with more risk makes absolutely no sense.

I don't know if there is a correlation between the Total and the Side, but it's interesting that the article showed that it yeilded a profit. Although like I said, I'd like to see how the system played out over the whole year instead of on a few selected "early games".

 

[trytrytry]

With CFB around the corner I figured I would start this to get some thoughts on what makes a parlay correlated enough to provide an advantage. The below link was posted by someone last year and proposes 33%.


Correlated enough???:lol:

As Forrest would say, "Stupid is as stupid does" There is no such thing as correlation between 2 mutually exclusive events meaning there is no cause and effect. There is no correlation between the Total and the Side, it just appears that way, an illusion you might say.

But it gets worse, lets say you reside in a parallel universe and a correlation does exist. Then you would have to buck the following basic parlay math :

WW=W
WL=L
WT=L
LL+L

Notice that out of the 4 possible outcomes to your parlay bet only one of them is a winner.

1 winning outcome that is 3 to 1 against you winning your wager. If you do win, do they pay you 3 to 1 odds? Of course not. Its butt ugly odds against you . (Some places will give a straight up win on that WT or a Tie and give your money back so its 2 to 1 against).

Again IF there was such a thing as correlation the odds are completely skewed in their favor.

Sucker bets are for people that don't have a basic understanding of math.

If you have a desire to bet Parlays after understanding the simple math may I recommend GA.

wrong wrong wrong

 

[fhmesq44]

With CFB around the corner I figured I would start this to get some thoughts on what makes a parlay correlated enough to provide an advantage. The below link was posted by someone last year and proposes 33%.


Correlated enough???:lol:

As Forrest would say, "Stupid is as stupid does" There is no such thing as correlation between 2 mutually exclusive events meaning there is no cause and effect. There is no correlation between the Total and the Side, it just appears that way, an illusion you might say.

But it gets worse, lets say you reside in a parallel universe and a correlation does exist. Then you would have to buck the following basic parlay math :

WW=W
WL=L
WT=L
LL+L

Notice that out of the 4 possible outcomes to your parlay bet only one of them is a winner.

1 winning outcome that is 3 to 1 against you winning your wager. If you do win, do they pay you 3 to 1 odds? Of course not. Its butt ugly odds against you . (Some places will give a straight up win on that WT or a Tie and give your money back so its 2 to 1 against).

Again IF there was such a thing as correlation the odds are completely skewed in their favor.

Sucker bets are for people that don't have a basic understanding of math.

If you have a desire to bet Parlays after understanding the simple math may I recommend GA.

Riddle me this Batman,

- last year USC was -39 and o/u was 57 against Stanford. How can you claim that USC is just as likely to cover a 39 point spread AND keep the game under 57 as Stanford is to cover that 39 and stay under 57? How is the number of points USC scores NOT correlated to the total number of points in the game? If USC covers, they score at least 40 points. Or, even better, USC was -49 against Idaho and o/u was 58.5.

- if there is no player advantage, why do virtually no books take parlays on games such as the above (go try to parlay the UT or A&M games this weekend, favorite to over and dog to under).

- today, in soccer, Hertha Berlin is -2 with an o/u of 2.5. By your logic, Hertha is just as likely to cover (25% chance) -2 AND stay under 2.5 (an actual impossibility) as their opponent is to cover +2 and stay under.

 

[fhmesq44]

Funny how little discussion actually happens when a topic that actually has substance comes up.

Threads like this and that bankroll management thread with calculus involved should be the ones with the most replies, not the least.

I thought the same thing, I figured there would be a good amount of discussion. Maybe the limited number of outs caused people to just ignore it.

 

[trytrytry]

fmhesq44 ask for my email address form one of the mods! thanks.

 

[steaktartar]

this is why these threads have less posts ensignlee...people like falco

 

[fhmesq44]

well, at least he has one thing correct, there is no correlation between mutually exclusive events.

 

[asufan550]

Do books in vegas take these plays?

 

[PO69]

Well they may be mutually exclusive bets, but certainly not entirely exclusive.


For instance, in college if you get a spread of +30 for an underdog and the under for the game is 60, then certainly you have an edge if you were to parlay 20 games where you got those numbers.


I remember about 7 years ago when Oklahoma was favored by 54 points against Baylor I believe. The total for the game was 60. At that time, quite a few internet books allowed one to parlay any side to any total.