Core42's 2009 MMA bets

[core42]

Overall 2008 wasn't too bad but ended horribly. My posted record here wasn't that great due to the last UFC & K-1 events of the year. Year end posted record here: 10-8 -4.35 units. On to a new year and right away UFC 93 has some good looking fights to bet on:

Marcus Davis - 7u to win 5.2u
This is my biggest bet of this event and I really think we're getting a good line here based on Davis' loss to Mike Swick. Davis is 13-1 since 2006 and even though he was a pro boxer at one time out of those 13 wins only 3 were by TKO, 2 by decision and 7 were submissions. I don't believe that Davis will sub Lytle but I believe if it goes to the ground Davis will be strong enough to tie Lytle up. Also remember that Lytle stated publicly that they have a "gentleman's agreement" to keep the fight standing where I believe Davis' pro boxing background along w/his Muay Thai work with Mark Dellagrotti at Team Sityodtong gives him a big advantage. Lytle showed in his last fight that he appears to have Gurgel syndrome caring more about producing an exciting fight vs getting a favorable outcome.

Dennis Kang - 2.45u to win 1u
This will be Alan Belcher's toughest test to date having cleaned up on some of the old TUF alumni. Dennis Kang is very well rounded with 12 wins by KO and 15 wins by submission and is just a couple of notches better as a fighter than Belcher. I would risk more but we've seen quite a few of the old Pride fighters struggle to adapt in their first fight in the cage vs the ring so I'll go slow in this one looking to win 1u.

Shogun Rua - 4u to win 1u
Mark Coleman is just flat out too old. He was great in the early days of the UFC & Pride but hasn't had a significant win since beating Vovchanchyn in 2000. He did "beat" Shogun in 2006 but it was due to a freak injury which is what Coleman would need to win again. This line should really be closer to -600 but I believe we get a break due to Shogun's loss to Forrest in which we knoe that he was hurt entering the fight. I hate betting fights that are this big of a line but I believe we have value at -400 so I'm playing it to win 1u.

Rousimar "Toquinho" Palhares 8.4u to win 2.2u
Toquinho's opponent Jeremy Horn falls into the same category as Mark Coleman, he was a great fighter years ago but he should've hung up the gloves a couple of years ago. Horn was known as a submission specialist and a guy that would fight anywhere, anytime as evidenced by his record of 80-18-5. In the last 3 years Horn is 3-4 with 3 of his losses by submission and really not looking very interested in being in those fights. Toquinho in that same time period is 8-2 with 6 wins by submission including submitting Ivan Salaverry, a submission specialist himself who's only sub loss came from Toquinho.
Add in that Horn is normally a 205er that had to cut weight whereas Toquinho is a normal 185er along with being younger and on the rise. This should end by sub in the 1st round.


GL everyone and let's make that :money8:

 

[turbozed]

This all makes sense. I can't bet too much on Davis since, unless one guy is vastly superior in striking, betting on two guys who plan on slugging it out is too much of a coin-flip. At minus odds it's not very appealing.

 

[core42]

Not a bad start and really should've been a clean sweep but I'll take it.

2009 record: 3-1 +5.95u

 

[core42]

Ufc 94

GSP 2.25u to win 1.5u

I may have more of a write up later but a couple of quick notes:

-GSP is naturally bigger
-GSP's wresting is some of the best in MMA and can help to neutralize BJ's bjj
-After watching their first fight again GSP really had the better of the stand up throughout the fight. BJ did almost all of his damage after GSP took a finger to the eye and the fight was never stopped. Once GSP recovered he qwned rounds 2 & 3.
-BJ looks like he's back to his old lazy ways on the UFC Primetime lead up shows, although I wouldn't put it past BJ to do that on purpose thinking he's getting in GSP's head. See this article http://mmajunkie.com/news/13781/trouble-in-paradise-b-j-penn-cuts-short-ufc-primetime-taping.mma
-It's a 5 rd fight and although BJ's cardio has been much better lately, this will continue to be a question mark. GSP's tank is never questioned.
-GSP has more to lose since this is for the Welterweight title. If BJ loses, so what he's still the LW champ.

Ok, wrote more than I planned. I got GSP at -150 a couple days ago and he's moved to the -160 to -170 range.

 

[core42]

Affliction: Day of Reckoning

Alright, I'm expanding out again away from the UFC. One thing that Affliction seems to be doing is really trying to put together mismatches to build up their name fighters. Often times matching up their "poster boys" against former name opponents that aren't the same anymore.
Because of some of the long odds, I've thrown together a couple of parlays I like to help with the juice & be a little more risk averse so we'll see how those go.


Antonio Rogerio Nogueira - 2.3u to win 2u
I wish I would've caught this when Lil Nog was an underdog but he's been steamed up to a favorite now but still worth it.
Vladdy is actually older than Lil Nog and hasn't fought anyone since he got KO'd by Arlovski a couple of years ago. Ring rust could be a concern as well since Vladdy only fought once in 2008 due to the IFL folding. Lil Nog on the other hand hasn't beaten a lot of great fighters incl. Alistair Overeem 2x (once by KO), he actually subbed Dan Henderson (only 1 of 3 guys) so he has more ways to win the fight. Last time they fought Lil Nog took the fight on late notice & Vladdy still couldn't finish him.

Parlay - LC Davis/Brett Cooper - 1.42u to win 1.5u
Quach is a late replacement against Davis & really doesn't deserve to be in there: he's 15-8-1 against weak competition & every decent fighter he's gone against has beaten him plus of his 15 wins only 6 were stoppages so he has to hope to outpoint Davis.
Cooper's line keeps rising and I think started low due to his 7-4 record but he's 6-1 in his last 7 with 3 TKO's & 2 subs including a win against Rory Markham. Cooper's opponent is 7-1 but the guys he beat have a combined record of 39-30-1.

Parlay - Fedor/Barnett/Lindland - 1u to 1.34u
-Sorry but Arlovski won't win...lots of reasons not the least of which is it's Fedor.
-Yvel looks like a beast but doesn't do well against wrestlers so Barnett will either win by GnP or unanimous decision, not to mention he hasn't fought anyone decent in years.
-Belfort is one of those names of the past but he's just not the same fighter anymore and Lindland is still a top notch fighter. I think the line is close due to Belfort looking good against Terry Martin who is on a 2-4 run and fought his way OUT of the UFC. Lindland hasn't fought much and didn't finish his last opponent but these are two fighters on different levels.

Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou - 1u to win 1.45u
I know, I know that you don't know what you're gonna get with Sokoudjou but I don't think this is a good match up for Babalu. I don't see him out striking Sokoudjou and Sokoudjouhas been good at stuffing takedowns so this will probably stay up for most of the fight & has a chance to look like the Babalu vs Jason Lambert fight


GL to all & let's make some :money8:

 

[turbozed]

Note about the Davis/Quach fight. Quach hasn't lost since 2006, like Davis. Since then, I think Davis has had the tougher opponents, but it's really hard to judge the FW division small time circuit. Career-wise, Quach has faced the tougher guys (and lost a bunch of times as you correctly pointed out). However, this may be a plus instead of a minus.

Good luck on your plays

 

[core42]

Updated record

2009 YTD: 5-3 +7.45u

Thoughts on Affliction:
- Should've gone w/my first thought of a Barnett/Fedor parlay & played Lindland seperate but tried to get better odds. Damn Vitor was fast, he may be reborn at that lower weight.
- F Sokoudjou...why did I put any money on him. Good 1st rd but apparently too much to ask for him to do it two more times
- With Davis & Cooper at -270 & -200 I should've played them seperately instead of parlayed...props to Quach for a game effort on 2 weeks notice.
- Matyushenko looked scared & except for a couple of power shots, Lil Nog dominated
-Arlovski looked as good as I've seen but damn Fedor is great!
- Affliction please get rid of the 3 man announcer crew & get rid of Tito


Oh well, not stellar but still a winning event :toast:

 

[core42]

Wec 38

Alright a couple of fights I like on this card. I'm laying off the bridge-jumpers (Faber, Muira, Cruz, Aldo) and going with these:

Charlie Valencia - 2.25u to win 1u
Valencia is a tweener guy meaning he beats all the guys he should but loses to the ones he should. His losses are a who's who at the lighter weights (Maeda, Bowles, Swanson, Faber) so his record is not impressive but he wins by sub the majority of the time going against a guy who has fought no one & has 2 sub losses.

Danillo Villefort - 2.1 to win 1.5
Villefort is fighting a guy that is 4-0 but his opponents comined record is 24-25-1 so he's pumped up his record against scrubs, none of which has a ground game to speak of. Villefort subbed Mike Massenzio who's very good on the ground himself & it seems Campbell is the first victim while the WEC pumps up their new star in the making. Both guys are making their WEC debuts yet this fight made the main card. Villefort trains with American Top Team & normally walks around at 205 so he'll be big for this weight class.

Jamie Varner - 2.4u to win 1.5u
Although I like Cerrone I believe that Varner has an advantage in almost every area. Although Cerrone was a kickboxer prior to his MMA career it doesn't seem to have translated over to MMA since he doesn't have even one KO/TKO victory. Varner's hands are much better and I expect him to push the pace while the two most likely stalemate on the ground. Looking at a common opponent (Razor Rob) Cerrone had him hurt but couldn't finish & rode out a decision while Varner finished the Razor by KO.
Varner's stand up & experience, I believe, will be the keys to his victory.


GL all & let's make some :money8:

 

[core42]

Alright, after sleeping on it I really like the matchup for Villefort so I'm adding another unit to this fight. As long as he avoids the power shot he should get this to the ground & then it's a complete mismatch.

Danillo Villefort - 1.5u to win 1u

 

[core42]

...another addition

After reading some of the boards I took a quick look at the Henderson/Njokuani fight and I really like this play on the underdog:

Benson Henderson - .79u to win 1.5u
Initially ANTHONY NJOKUANI was supposed to face Ed Ratcliff which was a better matchup as they are strikers w/NJOKUANI being a better, more polished striker & the line was set accordingly. Henderson is more well rounded than Ratcliff & along with some striking he has a wrestling/bjj base which will allow him to dictate where the fight takes place. Add in that NJOKUANI's opponents haven't been very good and he has a history of not always showing up & giving 100%. NJOKUANI's only loss was a submission loss whereas Henderson has finished 5 of 7 wins by sub making this a very live dog.

 

[onemorebet]

Henderson also turned down a previous chance to fight on a WEC card and withdrew from another competition a week before the event... He said he is cautious not to take the wrong matches in order to create the best opportunity for his future in MMA...There is a reason he decided to take this fight on short notice with an opponent as one dementional as Anthony...All Henderson has to do is get this match to the canvas and play his game

The only concern is when Henderson is on his feet but Anthony has not had enough knockouts on his record to prove he can stay on his feet for 15 minutes

 

[core42]

Glad I dove in...

Well I'm really glad I didn't pass on this event as I had originally planned!!

Updated 2009 YTD record: 9-3 +13.95u

:drink: :money8: :massage:

 

[dps831]

nice night, congrats

 

[core42]

GSP 2.25u to win 1.5u

I may have more of a write up later but a couple of quick notes:

-GSP is naturally bigger
-GSP's wresting is some of the best in MMA and can help to neutralize BJ's bjj
-After watching their first fight again GSP really had the better of the stand up throughout the fight. BJ did almost all of his damage after GSP took a finger to the eye and the fight was never stopped. Once GSP recovered he qwned rounds 2 & 3.
-BJ looks like he's back to his old lazy ways on the UFC Primetime lead up shows, although I wouldn't put it past BJ to do that on purpose thinking he's getting in GSP's head. See this article http://mmajunkie.com/news/13781/trouble-in-paradise-b-j-penn-cuts-short-ufc-primetime-taping.mma
-It's a 5 rd fight and although BJ's cardio has been much better lately, this will continue to be a question mark. GSP's tank is never questioned.
-GSP has more to lose since this is for the Welterweight title. If BJ loses, so what he's still the LW champ.

Ok, wrote more than I planned. I got GSP at -150 a couple days ago and he's moved to the -160 to -170 range.

Adding another one:

Stephan Bonner - 3.2u to win 2u
I think Stephen Bonner gets a bum rap because every remembers him as being the 2x loser against Forrest Griffin and I don't really think he's the most "impressive" fighter from a viewing standpoint. Realistically he's 11-4 with his losses against Forrest 2x, Rashad Evans & Lyoto Machida who are all very good. He's facing Jon Jones who is athletic, quick & has a cool Youtube video of a one punch knockout but a glimpse at his 7-0 record (5 KO's) shows he's beaten some scrubs with a combined record of 13-12. The best fighter he faced (Andre Gusmao) is his only decision victory. Let's remember that Bonnar has a very solid chin & against a pure striker I'm sure he'll take it to the ground & work a submission which he's done in 7 of his 11 wins. Jones will get his chance but he's over his head in this one and Bonnar has the experience & the ground game to handle him.

 

[onemorebet]

Stephan Bonnar vs Jon Jones

You make a sound argument for Bonnar but you seem to have left out some the the crucial negative aspects that go along with him. He was suspended for using steroids after his first fight with Griffin and has not been the same fighter since then. The use of steroids puts a strain on tendons and ligaments with the expansion of muscle mass and leads to serious injury...Coincidence Bonnar has been out for 15 months due to a serious knee injury?? Maybe but he has not been the same fighter since he was caught he has lost twice and beat scrubs that in no way resemble the style of Jon Jones. Jones has superior wrestling and I would compare him to a raw form of Rashad Evans given his wrestling background. But Rashad is the champ?? Right but he also had a terrible reach advantage against Bonnar which led to the fight going to a decision. Jones is 6' 4'' and a better wrestler and I'm betting he actually knows what he is getting into in this fight. Bonnar look really bad against Evans who had no idea what to do on top of the guard and Bonnar's "superior" ground game looked terrible. I see this fight going much of the same way. Jones will push the pace and rack up point with takedowns and have a better defense. We saw in the last fight he had a strong chin and Bonnar is extremely slow and methodical. Someone as unorthodox as Jones is tough to fight because he is unpredictable. I'm betting the ring rust, lack of roids, and slow pace in Bonnar will lead to a decision in favor of Jones because he will predict the pace. I could be wrong but at least there is a better risk reward value at a +140...

Also, does anybody remember the 1st fight on Affliction?? The kids name was Green and listed his style of fighting as "hood". He was so bad but was unpredictable and if is wasn't for his complete lack of knowledge and 3 blows under the belt, this kid could have taken this fight to a victory. Jones was the same way. He had two low blows and was throwing SPINNING BACK FISTS haha as his offense that he learned from movies and youtuube videos... Since then he has been training and learned some technique

I'm taking the true athlete here in Jones because you can't teach speed and this kid has something...

 

[core42]

Bonnar never took roids for size he has publicly stated he took them to help get over an elbow injury which is actually the reason most athletes take it for the recuperative values not size gain. My main concern is the ring rust due to his injury but nothing in your argument makes me think I'm on the wrong side...anything can happen in sports/mma but I feel like I'm on the right side win or lose

 

[onemorebet]

Who takes his word for his reasons of taking steroids?? He was looking to reduce recovery time, gain strength, and power. I'm sure Barry Bonds and Andy Pettite are completely honest about their steroid usage. Regardless of his personal reasons for cheating, he is not as good as people think. This is why he has never gone anywhere with his career. Bonnar is not good enough on the ground to submit someone like Jon Jones, he is just to fast and athletic for someone like Bonnar. Look at Frank Mir's struggles entering back into the ring, only Stephan does not rememble half of Frank Mir's potential. Look Bonnar is in his 30's and past his prime years. His time is over and well past him now. He recently was in a movie as a small actor roll during his recovery, which shows his only interest is in money. The UFC or any other production looks to set up great fights but also wants to promote these fighters for the future. Jon Jones is 21 years old with raw talent, why would he be paired up with someone like Bonnar? Because its a name to build his status to MMA fans. Bonnar is being used as a name and the UFC prob has no intention of letting him fight again. I can say this because he is fighting once again without a contract. Put yourself in Dana White's shoes, would you sign someone who was caught with roids and coming off a serious knee injury to a long term contract?
Jon Jones is just like Rashad Evans. He is taller and doesn't dance as much in the ring. He doesn't strike like Rashad yet, but he def has better takedowns. Watch Bonnar and how slow he was on the bottom of the guard. Do you think his knee is flexible to go for a triangle choke?
The problem is the UFC has 5 min rounds and is a disadvantage to jiu jitsu players, but Bonnar fuckin sucks at jiu jitsu and I give it to the wrestler to push the pace and not get caught in a sub.

 

[core42]

UFC 94 full card

Consolidated & added more fights, nothing huge just trying to pick up some extra units.

GSP 2.25u to win 1.5u
-GSP is naturally bigger
-GSP's wresting is some of the best in MMA and can help to neutralize BJ's bjj
-After watching their first fight again GSP really had the better of the stand up throughout the fight. BJ did almost all of his damage after GSP took a finger to the eye and the fight was never stopped. Once GSP recovered he qwned rounds 2 & 3.
-BJ looks like he's back to his old lazy ways on the UFC Primetime lead up shows, although I wouldn't put it past BJ to do that on purpose thinking he's getting in GSP's head. See this article http://mmajunkie.com/news/13781/trou...ime-taping.mma
-It's a 5 rd fight and although BJ's cardio has been much better lately, this will continue to be a question mark. GSP's tank is never questioned.
-GSP has more to lose since this is for the Welterweight title. If BJ loses, so what he's still the LW champ.

Stephan Bonner - 3.2u to win 2u
I think Stephen Bonner gets a bum rap because every remembers him as being the 2x loser against Forrest Griffin and I don't really think he's the most "impressive" fighter from a viewing standpoint. Realistically he's 11-4 with his losses against Forrest 2x, Rashad Evans & Lyoto Machida who are all very good. He's facing Jon Jones who is athletic, quick & has a cool Youtube video of a one punch knockout but a glimpse at his 7-0 record (5 KO's) shows he's beaten some scrubs with a combined record of 13-12. The best fighter he faced (Andre Gusmao) is his only decision victory. Let's remember that Bonnar has a very solid chin & against a pure striker I'm sure he'll take it to the ground & work a submission which he's done in 7 of his 11 wins. Jones will get his chance but he's over his head in this one and Bonnar has the experience & the ground game to handle him.

Parlay - Chris Wilson/Lyoto Machida 2.5u to win 2u
Like the Affliction show I'm just being a little risk averse by parlaying these two instead of playing them together.
Wilson is taller than his opponent & a better striker while Howard probably has the advantage on the ground (from the top at least) but getting Wilson down will very difficult & he will use his reach to pick apart Howard throughout the fight.
Machida is boring because he doesn't takes risks which is exactly why this is a very good matchup for him. Silva loves to drive forward & Machida will retreat & counter punch w/amazing accuracy until Silva gasses himself which will actually give Machida a chance to finish a fight.

Dong Hyun Kim - .8u to win 1.5u
For all of Karo Parisyan's name recognition, one thing he is not is a finsher; in his last 8 wins only 1 was not a decision. The script is generally the same he starts on his feet and once he starts losing that battle he uses his great judo to throw the guy, land on top then control him while sprinkling in punches. Unfortunately he's meeting a guy who is better than Karo at judo and loves the GnP. Karo is coming off a back injury & this fight won't help as I see Kim getting the better of the stand up but when they clinch Kim has a better chance of getting the throw or else they'll stalemate...either way advantage Kim. I wouldn't be surprised to see this end by injury to Karo but if not expect Kim to GnP Karo into a TKO later in the fight.

Matt Arroyo - 1.75u to win 1u
Arroyo's stand up is fairly horrendous so the good news is that his opponent, Cramer, has equally as bad takedown defence. Once Arroyo gets it to the ground (he'll probably eat a couple on the way in) he'll impose his will on Cramer controlling him until he gets the submission attempt or attempts to go for. I say submission in the 1st rd

Nate Diaz - 1.3u to win 1u
Clay Guida's style is much the same as Karo Parisyan except he uses wrestling instead of judo but similarly he doesn't win many by stoppage. Usually Guida's energy & pace will unnerve his opponents but don't expect to see that with Diaz who is super cool in the cage. Stand up wise Nate can hang w/Guida & can use his jab to keep Guida outside until he falls back to his wrestling base and looks for a takedown. On the ground Guida's energy & constant forward action will hurt him as he'll constantly be in danger of submissions. Look for Nate to sub Guida in the 2nd rd.


As always GL to all :drink:

 

[turbozed]

Nice writeups. I agree pretty much with everything there. Don't have much of a read on the Diaz fight so I think I"m gonna lay off of it.

I have a larger position on Kim since the news of Karo being on some questionable medication and his last minute decision to fight. He looked somewhat soft in the weigh-ins and I've heard reports that he might not be feeling well. Also, there's that whole back injury you mentioned and his panic attacks. Seems like a convergence of bad situations for Karo against a pretty strong opponent.

As for Silva, he should really get beaten to the punch and picked apart by Lyoto. I'm thinking we're going to hear some boos as Machida keeps him at distance and makes him miss. Machida has enough faith in his fighting style to not let that bother him though.

As for GSP, I think his size and strength advantage will be too much. The longer the fight goes, the more cardio will be a factor benefiting GSP as well. I just wish I had gotten more down at -150.

Good luck to us

 

[sphincter]

guida will have diaz on his back here.....i don`t think either guy will mind this happening....the problem will come when guida postures up to effectuate his g&p.....that`s where he can get into real trouble with diaz...

given the height differential,i don`t see guida`s stand-up as being a huge factor...i really don`r consider either guy a stand-up whiz....

guida has been subbed several times before....is this the only way for diaz to win?....does he HAVE to sub guida?....

i expect diaz to be on his back trying for subs or to somehow transition onto guida`s back...

looks like nate gets the sub or guida lays and prays his way to a decsion...

which is the correct answer?

btw...i was thinking gsp but i though he looked gaunt at the weigh-in...is he having trouble making 170?