Coochie vs The Bookie

[dacoochiebets]

Guardians vs Rays​

Rays ML -125

Tampa’s post-all-star break struggles continued to persist last night, as they fell for the 6th time in 8 games, and it’s in large part due to their lack of offensive bite. The pitching has been great, and it’s needed to be, Rays have only scored 16 runs combined in their last 7 games! And today, the formerly Devilish Rays should hold an advantage in this match-up as TheBiebs takes the bump looking to secure the win against Zac Plesac —- and despite the Rays’ shaky offense, they should be excited to be going up against an overperforming pitcher in Zach Plesac who has a 2-8 record to go along with a 4.08 ERA. His xERA is even higher at 5.43, and in addition, Plesac performs noticeably worse on the road with an ERA of 4.97 on the road compared to a 3.02 ERA at home. Simply put, his metrics and expected numbers are not very appealing, which gives the Rays a chance to break out of their slump and put some runs up on the board on Saturday afternoon.

For the Rays, Corey Kluber has been solid this season with a 6-6 record and a 3.91 ERA —— so while he’s not been overly dominant, what he does do is consistently eat up innings and gets deep into games while providing the bats an honest chance to win. They’ve just not cashed in for him as of yet, though I think that changes today. Plesac’s inline for some regression, and the Rays have the advantage when the bullpens come in for mop-up work.

Building the BankRoll --- Episode 6

My Picks and Analysis for a LONG day of sporting goodness.

coochievsbookie.substack.com

 

[dacoochiebets]

Mariners vs Yankees​

Yankees RL +110

This one comes down to the Mariners pitcher Marco Gonzales —- and I can’t lie about it, the last time he started I bet the man and cashed the ticket gladly. That said, last time out Marco wasn’t going up against the BRONX BOMBERS BB BOI. No team in the BigLeague hits more long bombs than the guys wearing the pinstripes, and that ain’t good news for Gonzales or the Mariners today as the soft-tossing lefty has allowed more than 1.3 HR/9 this year.

Worse still, that number only climbs when Gonzales is packing a travel bag, as his HR/9 away from Seattle is a staggering 1.5. To top it all off; is since the Covid-shortened season that saw him essentially never issue a free pass, his command’s left him. He’s walking north of 2 batters per nine innings, and when you just don’t strike guys out, you find yourself creating the perfect recipe for a MONSTER day at the plate of NYC. Some negative regression is coming Marco’s way —- and I got an inkling it starts early and often tonight.

NOTE: If the Mariners get crushed up early, look for a LIVE under in this one as well. Mariners bullpen is putting opposition lineups in straight jackets lately, and while the Yankees bullpen is starting to show signs of cracks —- the loss of Julio Rodriguez is MASSIVE for the Mariners.

 

[dacoochiebets]

DO NOT LET ME GET HOT.

Make that Two wins a row on this here thread --- at what # do you all subscribe to my FREE newsletter? 10? BET.

Jays vs Rays **2 Unit Play**​

Over 7 -110

A pair of dynamite pitchers will tow the rubber this evening down at Tropicanna field, as Drew Rasmussen goes for Tampa as they play host to the BlueJays and Kevin Gausman —- so why am I laying multiple units on an over then?

Well first and foremost we only have to get to 8, but beyond that, there are some interesting trends I’m looking to key in on. The total is 5-3 to the over in the season series to this point, better still it has gone over in each of the last 4 matchups. The over is 11-5-1 this season when Drew Rasmussen starts and 10-9 when Kevin Gausman starts; BUT when set at 7 runs, the over is 11-3-3 in Rasmussen starts and 9-7-3 in Gausman starts. More importantly though, at least to me, is just how HOT HOT HOT these two teams have been against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days.

Over the course of the past 30 days against righties, the Maple Syrup bats of the Canadians are 1st in baseball in AVG at .308, SLG at .477, and OPS at .835. They also have a league-best wRC+ of 133 during this span. BAD news for Drew Rasmussen, as he shouldn’t go much more than 5 innings and will hand the ball off to a bullpen that has ranked just 19th in WHIP in the last 30 days. Safe to say Toronto is gonna score some runs.

What about the Rays? The bats have sucked this year, haven’t they?

WELL WELL WELL…. Tampa Bay has been on fire in their own right, ranking 6th in OPS, 7th in AVG, and they have a wRC+ of 124 during that span, good for 4th best. They have also recently added David Peralta to the lineup who should prove to be a valuable addition.

Lastly, with the familiarity that exists between these two squads, most of the bullpen arms have been seen by the opposition bats. Not a good thing for a pair of relief corps that aren’t the best, to begin with —— GET THE OVER LOCKED AND LOOOOOADED.

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https://coochievsbookie.substack.com/

 

[dacoochiebets]

Tigers vs Twins​

Under 8.5 (-115)

TIGERS UNDER —— THE GIFT THAT NEVER STOPS.

For the Twins starting Joe Ryan is coming off the worst outing of his career, but fortunately for him, this game will be at home, and he gets to pitch against the LOWLY Tigers attack. Ryan’s ERA drops to 3.05 when he starts at Target Field, and the under is 6-2 in his 8 starts in Minnesota. This will be Ryan’s third start against the Tigers this season, and he’s dominated the Detroit lineup so far. Through 12.2 innings against the Tigers this season, he has allowed 1 run on 5 hits with 16 strikeouts. So through 45 plate appearances, the Detroit lineup has a .214 batting average with a .203 xBA and a 35.6% strikeout rate. HELPLESS TIGERS.

Before Tuesday night’s game, the Tigers had averaged just 3.14 runs per game in their last 7 contests and they lost Robbie Grossman and Michael Fulmer at the trade deadline to make a weak team, even weaker. I expect Ryan to come out with a vengeance after his last start and dice up this team, which means can the Twins score 6+ against Lefty Tyler Alexander?

Hard to say, the guys had a real rollercoaster ride of a season in Detroit. From injuries, to constantly swapping roles —- some with more success than others (1.29 ERA as a reliever, ERA spikes to 7.71 when he’s a starter), the guy has been asked to do handle a weird situation for such a young arm. That said, the Twins’ offense isn’t exactly crushing left-handed pitching, ranking 13th in OPS and 14th in wRC+, and with how good the Tigers’ bullpen arms are —- I’m thinking we go LIMBO’ing once more with Tony the Tiger.

---

 

[dacoochiebets]

Orioles vs Pirates
​

Orioles Win x Over 5.5 (+104)

• The Orioles are 12-3 in their last 15 home games
• Pirates have the 4th-worst road record at 19-33

Fresh off showing the BrewCrew all about the Pirate life, having swept the visiting Brewers away in a three-game series early this week, the Pirates board their ships and travel to Baltimore in hopes of sabotaging another playoff team’s aspirations for gold.

For the one-eyed men of the seas, at the plate, the Pirates are scoring 3.70 runs per game and they are hitting .220 as a team, and rank middle of the road in long flies per game at just over 1. Those are some UGLY numbers for a team whose defense and pitching leave even more to be desired —— Pittsburgh is currently allowing 5.18 runs per game and they have the lowest overall team fielding percentage. So it’s really not too hard to understand how their record looks the way it does (42-62), and with the three wins against the Brewers this week being the only ones they’ve managed in the last 10 —- it’s easy to understand why the stands are empty.

This means it’s not been an easy task, picking up the win that is, anytime Mitch Keller has gone out there this season. His numbers aren’t sparkling by any means, but Keller, who sits with a 3-7 record and an ERA of 4.37, pitched brilliantly last time out against the Phillies going 5 innings and giving up only one hit. If he is to get a win today he’ll likely need to replicate a similar performance, though getting deeper in the game would certainly help as the Pirates bullpens are one of the worst in the NL.

Oh, did I mention Balto has stayed hot as hell post-all-star break? 7-3 over their last 10, fresh off a sweep of another miserable team (Texas), seemingly undeterred by the front office hacking away at their own playoff chances, this team has the feel of one that’s not going quietly into the night. Still very much alive in this playoff race, the Orioles will hope that today’s starter, Dean Kremer, can continue his solid performances. Kremer, who sits with a 3-3 record and an ERA of 3.86, will need to better than his last outing —- but will get a Pirates team whose not exactly hard-hitting.

HUNGRY DOG RUNS FASTER.

Baltimore still in it, Pirates enjoying a win-streak, without much to keep it going for other than pride? Give me Baltimore, and parlay it with Over 5.5 runs to get me to + money. Keller and Kremer will give up a few, but the Orioles will smash up the Pirates bullpen and cash this SGP easily.

 

[dacoochiebets]

Angels vs Athletics
​

A’s F5 ML -125

A’s ML -125

As expected, the Oakland Athletics have had a tough season thus far, posting the worst record in the American League. Not sure what else can be expected from a team who pays their roster as much as other teams pay their stars; but of late, the lads from Oakland have had recent success in Cole Irvin’s starts and will turn to him at home on Monday against the Los Angeles Angels in hope of picking up a win. AND ME THINKS OAKLAND WILL WIN.

Because Irvin has done his best work when he’s pitching in Oakland this season, posting a 1.73 ERA with just one home run allowed across 62.1 innings in 10 home starts this season. So while Irvin’s enjoyed a fair bit of fortunate luck (4.34 xERA), the Angels line-up just doesn’t seem interested in plating runs if they’ve gotta come from stringing together good at-bats/hits. Hell, they hit 7 solo jacks earlier in the week and still lost.

So while I’m not expecting the same level of fireworks from the Angels bats today, I do expect Oakland to get to the Angels starter today —— Jose Suarez. Jose Suarez to counter ain’t ever where you want to be as a baseball club; espescially because Saurez does his best work out of the bullpen; posting a career 5.86 ERA with a 9-19 record as a starter with 1.7 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings compared to a 3.75 ERA out of the bullpen.

Unfortunately for the Angels though they need him to start today, which means a heavy workload for an already mediocre at-best bullpen (20th ranked bullpen in baseball). So while it’s hard to imagine this A’s team has much of an advantage on anyone they play —— The A’s send the better pitcher/pitching into this game and I think it’ll be enough to cash my PLAY OF THE DAY.

Building the Bankroll --- Episode 13

MY PICKS AND ANALYSIS FOR LUCKY NUMBER 13 of August

coochievsbookie.substack.com

 

[dacoochiebets]

BlueJays vs Orioles
​

Orioles ML +135

The Bluebirds and Orioles find themselves in the heat of an avian battle for the American League Wild Card race as the Orioles look for the home sweep on Wednesday and will look for the continued improvement of Dean Kremer to keep the Blue Jays in the nest.

Because although it’s not always been sunshine and lollipops from Kremer —- the guy started his career with some UGYL results. The Orioles went 3-15 in Kremer’s first 18 career starts, but are 7-3 in his last 10 starts, turning it around nicely as he’s acclimated properly to the Bigs, posting a 3.21 ERA with 0.8 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings allowed in the span. Once the sticker shock of playing in the best in the world left Kremer’s mind, Cosmo’s been dynamite.

And the man across from him is certainly not so dynamite when he’s got his travel bag —- Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios throughout his career has had a rather large home and road splits. Those splits have become far more extreme this season north of the border; I guess some guys just hate hotels; because with a 7.50 road ERA with 2.5 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 3.23 home ERA with under 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed —- it’s hard to not wonder what the hell’s going on there.

Regardless though, the Orioles should hold the pretty sizeable pitching advantage in this one despite what the name recognition might illustrate —- and having watched this Jays team all year, they’ve not got that DOG in’em just yet. Other teams, I’d be concerned about the getaway day —- but I just can’t trust the Maple Syrup boys.

Orioles ML —— THE DOGS BARK TONIGHT.

 

[Zapbrother]

Love the write-up and your writing style!

 

[dacoochiebets]

Cubs vs Nationals
​

Cubs ML x Over 4.5 Cubs TT (+120)

The Nationals probably were hoping that if they skip Patrick Corbin’s turn in the rotation once for extra rest, he’ll be a brand new pitcher. Unfortunately, for all those involved, I’m not sure it works like that. If all it took was 5 extra days to get significantly better at your job, well then lots of us would suck way less —- and the reality of the situation at hand is, that you can’t just turn a guy with a 7.02 ERA into a serviceable starter with less than two months left in the season with some minor tweaks. It’s been an undeniably hard year for Corbin, and it also feels unjust to rip him any harder than the following numbers do;

• The lefty has failed to get out of the first inning in 2 of his last 3 starts. He has allowed 16 runs and 19 hits in his last 5.2 innings, which spans over his 3 most recent starts. He has allowed at least 4 runs in 6 consecutive outings and has been arguably the worst pitcher in baseball this season.

And across for a struggling Corbin is his fellow lefty, Justin Steele, who himself is actually enjoying a great! The 2nd year pitcher has been an excellent addition to the Cubs’ starting rotation and will be a centerpiece of their rotation for the future. Steele has a 3.63 ERA and a 3.64 xERA through 101.2 innings this season, but he’s been stellar in the second half. Post-all-star break, the lefty has a 1.40 ERA in 4 starts and should be more than equipped to pick up a win here today.

So ya, give me the Cubs ML and TT over 4.5 against Patty C and the DC Boys — cause cashing tickets and avoiding juice is all I do.

For my whole betting card today --- sign-up for my FREE newsletter!

Building the Bankroll ---- Episode 21

My Picks and Analysis for August 16th

coochievsbookie.substack.com

 

[dacoochiebets]

Royals vs Twins Twins RL +105

HUNGRY DOGS FOLKS —- THEY RUN FASTER.

The Twins have fallen their way out of first place in the AL Central, struggling over the past few weeks which has allowed the Guardians to jump them in the standings. However, they only sit 1 game back heading into their game today against the Royals, and they have a great opportunity to tack on another win in this matchup. Taking the mound for the Twins will be Tyler Mahle, who was acquired from the Reds at the trade deadline.

On paper, Mahle’s numbers don’t stand out with a 6-7 record and 4.26 ERA, but he’s been a bit unlucky as evidenced by his very impressive 3.39 xERA. His metrics also indicate he’s been better than advertised, ranking in the top 30% of pitchers in xBA and K%. He should be able to navigate his way through the rebuilding Royals lineup that had no answer for Sonny Gray in last night’s game, being shut out and losing the game 9-0. (WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER.)

On the otherside of this starting pitching matchup should see the Twins find some more success today against lefty Daniel Lynch who is the man going for KC; as his season numbers are hardly worth writing home about. The Richmond Virginia native is the owner of a 4-7 record and 4.52 ERA for Kansas City this season, which considering the dumpster fire around him really is commendable.
Who knows in a few years they may be able to deal him for some more prospects! Back the Twins to pick up the win here as they NEED to keep doing so if they are to make the playoffs (cash one of my futures)

https://coochievsbookie.substack.com/

 

[dacoochiebets]

Rangers vs Twins
Twins RL +105
Cole Ragans is the man taking the ball for the Rangers, and with Ragan having pitched just 14.1 innings at the Major League level and his inexperience may cost him on Monday. Because through his 3 starts, he has a 10.9% strikeout rate and a 12.5% walk rate—— not the ratio a starting pitcher should have. Which is exactly the type of pitcher the Twins need to shake off their current slump!
The bats from the TwinCities have recorded just 10 combined hits in their last 2 games. Because of this, they are now 1.5 games back of the Guardians in the AL Central standings —- and frankly, for the Twinkies fans they were hoping to secure 4 wins, but now the Twins find themselves in desperate need of just to get a series split. Which they should be able to do here today as they send the man that has consistently provided the Twins with a great pitching performance —— Sonny Gray has been dynamite, especially since the ASG. Gray has a 3.08 ERA and has held opponents to a .229 batting average on the season — but post-all-star break The veteran’s numbers are downright dazzling —— 1.69 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. So despite how the series has gone, I think we see the Twins take care of business here today.

I just can’t ignore Gray’s dominance since the all-star break and with a rookie pitcher on the mound for Texas, this is a perfect opportunity for the Twins’ offense to come alive.

 

[G-Man!]

Better Ingredients - Better Pizza.
Better Pitcher - Better Outcome.
GL today

 

[HotRocks]

 

[dacoochiebets]

Giants @ Tigers
​

Under 7.5 -107 (Pinnacle)

Distance makes the heart grow founder didn’t ya know? So after a little hiatus from this season’s cash cow, I have returned to pump more milk out of this bad boy.

BECAUSE TIGERS UNDER’S FOREVER.

As I’ve spoken about ad nauseam for running on 4+ months now, I’m unsure if there’s ever been a more perfectly configured unders team than this Tigers team, and man does today exemplify exactly what I’ve been talking about.

Going for the Tigers today is Matt Manning (WHO), and while there may be some skepticism in that with the rather unknown name of Matt Manning on the mound for the Tigers, the reality is because no one knows, we get some VALUE. That’s because Mr. Manning much stronger pitcher than most would expect, and so far this season has pitched REALLY well.

Two of his last 3 starts have been everything the Tigers could have hoped for and more —— as Manning went a full 7.0 innings in each, allowing just a single run and striking out 13 batters. PRETTY PRETTY IMPRESSIVE.

Now his lone road start against the White Sox wasn’t great, but those 2 home starts provide hope for Detroit that perhaps this season wasn’t entirely lost. Because lord knows this offense of Detroit is FEEBLE, which naturally is CRUCIAL another piece of this perfect under team.

So while it’ll be Logan Webb going for the Giants in this one, I think he should be able to handle (like everyone else has all year), this Tigers offense that lacks really any meaningful identity or threat. It has gotta feel bleak in the motor city right now if you are a fan of baseball —- but if you like LIMBO you should be ecstatic because this one’s staying under the total.


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Coochie vs The Bookie | DaCoochieCoo | Substack

Daily Plays and Betting Tips from the Danny Ocean of Sports Handicapping. Click to read Coochie vs The Bookie, by DaCoochieCoo, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

coochievsbookie.substack.com

 

[G-Man!]

GL today on the under

 

[dacoochiebets]

GL today on the under

Got a little fortunate on this one --- didn't project the tigers scoring 6. But we take wins however they come.

 

[dacoochiebets]

Twins vs Astros​

Astros RL +120 (BetRivers)

Tale of two pitchers who are on the opposite side of the regression tree take the mound in this one as the Astros look to continue their destruction of my Twins to Make the Playoffs future. But I digress…. the man pitching for the Astros today is Luis Garcia, and while Verlander and Valdez gtt much of the applause (rightfully so), Garcia has been incredibly trust-worthy all year long. Moreover, his peripherals would indicate he’s actually been a tad unlucky to be sporting an ERA norther of 4, as his xFIP and xERA are both south of 4.

The opposite is true for the Twins starter today, as Chris Archer is vastly outperforming his peripheral numbers and should be in line for some serious regression. Archer’s 4.66 xERA compared to a 4.02 ERA indicates there’s about half a run un-answered for this year, and facing an Astros line-up that’s not struggled at all these series —- feels like a spot in which the former STUD gets touched up. Moreover, what we know for certain is Archer ain’t getting deep into this game, which means an already tired and “seen” bullpen for the Twins will have a big load to carry if they are to win this game.

Just don’t see it happening, Houston’s got no problem. ASTROS STOMP.

 

[G-Man!]

Twins vs Astros​

Astros RL +120 (BetRivers)

Tale of two pitchers who are on the opposite side of the regression tree take the mound in this one as the Astros look to continue their destruction of my Twins to Make the Playoffs future. But I digress…. the man pitching for the Astros today is Luis Garcia, and while Verlander and Valdez gtt much of the applause (rightfully so), Garcia has been incredibly trust-worthy all year long. Moreover, his peripherals would indicate he’s actually been a tad unlucky to be sporting an ERA norther of 4, as his xFIP and xERA are both south of 4.

The opposite is true for the Twins starter today, as Chris Archer is vastly outperforming his peripheral numbers and should be in line for some serious regression. Archer’s 4.66 xERA compared to a 4.02 ERA indicates there’s about half a run un-answered for this year, and facing an Astros line-up that’s not struggled at all these series —- feels like a spot in which the former STUD gets touched up. Moreover, what we know for certain is Archer ain’t getting deep into this game, which means an already tired and “seen” bullpen for the Twins will have a big load to carry if they are to win this game.

Just don’t see it happening, Houston’s got no problem. ASTROS STOMP.

On them myself today. GL

 

[dacoochiebets]

VACATION IS OVER ---- THE KID IS BACK.

Cubs vs Jays
​

F5 Under 4.5 -120 (PowerPlay)

Kevin Gausmass should be firmly in the AL-CyYoung conversation, and YES, my future on him is coloring this analysis. But my lord the guy has been absolutely dealing all year, and while the numbers aren’t exactly shocking (3.15 ERA and 3.50 xERA), the reality is he’s about as good as an analytics staff could hope for a starter to be.

If you look at his “three-true outcomes” numbers you begin to see what I’m talking about; the guy has a 10.38K per 9, while only surrendering 1.47 walks per 9, but most impressive still is, he’s average under half a HR per 9 innings this season. What this says is the guy is doing everything in his power to win baseball games, pitch deep into outings, and provide the opponents with very little to even dream on. If at any point his BABIP can stabilize a little (currently sitting at a crazy .373) then we’ll see some truly spotless outings out of the Jays ace.

So with my assumption being the Cubs aren’t doing much scoring today, this F5 total will come down to whether or not the Jays can touch up a familiar face in Marcus Stroman. And while it’s not been the season the enigmatic Stroman was hoping to have (his 4.10 ERA being paired with a 4.50 ERA indicates he’s probably just this guy), the guy carries a massive chip on his shoulder. That can rub people the wrong way, but in a spot where he gets to come pitch against the team that drafted him, then traded him —- I think it is likely we see the best Stroman can offer.

Now, do I think that’ll be a turn-the-clock back performance in which the StroShow finds his former self? Well no I do not, but I do think he can do his job adequately, perhaps allowing 2 runs through 5 innings. For this game in which Gaus will handle his business, a solid if not spectacular performance from Stroman will be more than enough to keep this total under.

 

[dacoochiebets]

A’s ML -104 (Pinnacle) <2UnitBANGER>

One of the few bets we had yesterday that was nothing but sweet cash is one I’m going back to the well on —- and loading up two bullets in the chamber in doing so. And I know what you are thinking —- these games featuring 2 bad teams, 2 bad pitchers, and very little split this true toilet bowl match-up. So why bet it?

Well humans still play the game my friends, and if we know one thing about this As an organization it’s this; to a man, every player understands what the end goal is —- GET TRADED AND PAID ELSEWHERE.

So a meaningless game in August really ain’t that much different from their typical motivation —- play well for me so I can have a career. It ain’t about winning, it ain’t about much out there in Oakland let’s be honest. But because of that —- these A’s players are used to the late season circumstance bad teams find themselves in. In particular, the starting pitching match-up today screams fade the old dog, ride the young buck trying to make his name.
James Kaprielian has shown flashes in the past, but it’s been a tough year no two ways about it. HOWEVER, put together a dynamite September and maybe you find yourself pitching for a real team this time next year.

Anibal Sanchez on the otherside is old enough to be the father of some of the A’s hitters. He’s playing out the course of his career, he’ll probably get a camp invite regardless of how it goes —- and he’s not too far removed from real playoff baseball. He doesn’t care if he shuvs or gets touched up any more than a Nationals bettor does.

So find me with these A’s —- this is what this franchise does. Analytics count the same when the games don’t matter!

Coochie vs The Bookie | DaCoochieCoo | Substack

Daily Plays and Betting Tips from the Danny Ocean of Sports Handicapping. Click to read Coochie vs The Bookie, by DaCoochieCoo, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

coochievsbookie.substack.com