Where contrarian betting value lies in Week 4
David Solar, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
So far this season, the focus of our contrarian strategies has involved how bettors can capitalize on market overreactions based on public perception. As NFL games are played weekly, it's important to know what drives line movement to determine whether it's provoked by sharp bettors or overzealous -- and overconfident -- square bettors.
History demonstrates that our most consistently profitable contrarian strategy is betting against the public. In simple terms, if the public is loading up on one team, bet on its opponent.
The public loves taking winning teams and naturally gravitates toward favorites. Sportsbooks adjust for this public sentiment by shading their opening lines, and an influx of public money can artificially move these lines even further. Getting an extra point or half-point might not seem like much, but it can increase your winning percentage by 1 percent to 3 percent -- a huge gain for patient sports bettors with a long-term outlook.
As detailed in a recent article by David Purdum, Las Vegas sportsbooks took a Mike Tyson-esque beating last weekend. According to our public betting trends, the Seahawks, Cardinals and Broncos were three of the most popular bets on Sunday.
Unfortunately, all three teams posted big wins, which led to a profitable day for many bettors and a huge hit for the sportsbooks.
When sportsbooks suffer, so do our betting-against-the-public strategies. Last week, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets went just 4-11 against the spread, while teams receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets were just 1-4. With contrarian dogs struggling, our picks posted a 0-2 ATS record last week, dropping our season record to 5-4 ATS.
That said, you might never find better value than you will after the public posts a huge week. These square bettors are now more confident and equipped with additional funds to help inflate these favorite lines.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Our goal this week was to combine our betting-against-the-public strategy with the public's propensity to overreact to low-scoring games. Bettors won't always overreact when a defense gets lit up, but they will almost always overreact to an inept offensive performance. It's more predictable than the plot of a Michael Bay movie.
Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets have gone 526-500 ATS (51.3 percent). Although that represents an edge, it doesn't eclipse the 52.4 percent winning rate necessary to overcome the standard -110 juice charged by sportsbooks.
When we look at contrarian teams that also scored fewer than 10 points in their previous game, that winning percentage skyrockets to 62 percent.
Week 3 betting system
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David Solar, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
So far this season, the focus of our contrarian strategies has involved how bettors can capitalize on market overreactions based on public perception. As NFL games are played weekly, it's important to know what drives line movement to determine whether it's provoked by sharp bettors or overzealous -- and overconfident -- square bettors.
History demonstrates that our most consistently profitable contrarian strategy is betting against the public. In simple terms, if the public is loading up on one team, bet on its opponent.
The public loves taking winning teams and naturally gravitates toward favorites. Sportsbooks adjust for this public sentiment by shading their opening lines, and an influx of public money can artificially move these lines even further. Getting an extra point or half-point might not seem like much, but it can increase your winning percentage by 1 percent to 3 percent -- a huge gain for patient sports bettors with a long-term outlook.
As detailed in a recent article by David Purdum, Las Vegas sportsbooks took a Mike Tyson-esque beating last weekend. According to our public betting trends, the Seahawks, Cardinals and Broncos were three of the most popular bets on Sunday.
Unfortunately, all three teams posted big wins, which led to a profitable day for many bettors and a huge hit for the sportsbooks.
When sportsbooks suffer, so do our betting-against-the-public strategies. Last week, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets went just 4-11 against the spread, while teams receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets were just 1-4. With contrarian dogs struggling, our picks posted a 0-2 ATS record last week, dropping our season record to 5-4 ATS.
That said, you might never find better value than you will after the public posts a huge week. These square bettors are now more confident and equipped with additional funds to help inflate these favorite lines.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Our goal this week was to combine our betting-against-the-public strategy with the public's propensity to overreact to low-scoring games. Bettors won't always overreact when a defense gets lit up, but they will almost always overreact to an inept offensive performance. It's more predictable than the plot of a Michael Bay movie.
Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets have gone 526-500 ATS (51.3 percent). Although that represents an edge, it doesn't eclipse the 52.4 percent winning rate necessary to overcome the standard -110 juice charged by sportsbooks.
When we look at contrarian teams that also scored fewer than 10 points in their previous game, that winning percentage skyrockets to 62 percent.
Week 3 betting system
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CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
---|---|---|---|
Receiving <30% of spread bets | 526-500 (51.3%) | -1.93 | -0.2% |
Receiving <30% of spread bets, Scored <10 points previous game | 129-79 (62.0%) | +42.66 | +20.5% |
* Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |