[h=1]Where contrarian betting value lies in NFL Week 2[/h]David Solar, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
With the first week of the NFL season behind us, we can celebrate America's proudest unofficial holiday. No, not May the Fourth (Star Wars Day), March 14th (Pi Day) or even the soon-forgotten International Beer Day. No, I'm talking about Overreaction Monday -- the day after the first weekend of NFL action that's filled with hyperbolic "hot takes" and bold observations that decimate every belief fans held dear before the season.
My advice to you: Do not overreact to Week 1. Last year, hysterical New Englanders lamented the Patriots' 13-point opening loss to the Dolphins. Talk-show faithful said Tom Brady was over the hill, the offensive line was inept, and offseason defensive acquisitions were a colossal mistake. Five months later, the Pats were hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for a fourth time during coach Bill Belichick's reign.
Barely a week into this season, the rumbling begins again -- from claims that Peyton Manning's arm is a wet noodle to Tyrod Taylor's status as the Next Big Thing. Marcus Mariota's greatness has been compared to sliced bread, while the Titans have somehow been transformed from laughingstock to worthy adversary.
Broad statements like these based on a small sampling will likely seem foolish at year's end, but that doesn't calm all the fans who are prone to panic and hysteria. Our goal is to help bettors capitalize on these overreactions.
Football fans place excessive significance on the previous game's outcome, which has created historical value. Since 2003, teams coming off a loss have a winning percentage of 51.0 percent against the spread (ATS). Similarly, bettors would win 50.9 percent of their spread bets by fading teams that won the previous game. When we combine these filters and look at teams coming off a loss against teams coming off a victory, that winning percentage increases to 52.0 percent.
This shows a clear edge, one we believe will be amplified based on Week 1 overreactions. We found that underdogs (since 2003) coming off a loss have gone 51-37 ATS in Week 2, while home teams have shown exceptional value, with a 26-12 ATS record and +12.77 units won.
Last week our system matches went 2-1 ATS, and we will look to continue our winning ways. Here are our best contrarian system bets for NFL Week 2.
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</tfoot></aside>("units won" is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example below, a $100 bettor would have won $1,277 -- $100 x 12.77 units -- by following the system.)
Why does this work?
Oddsmakers understand the behavior that drives public betting. Teams that lost the previous game aren't popular among square sports bettors, and as a result, sportsbooks shade their opening lines to make these teams more desirable.
Last week, we explained that these shaded lines create additional value for the contrarian bettor willing to take an unpopular stance. Getting an extra point or half-point based on public perception can increase your expected winning percentage by 2-5 percent, which is crucial for long-term success in the sports betting marketplace. The importance of that extra half-point is amplified around key numbers like 3, 7 and 10.
[h=2]Week 2 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Wednesday morning.
Washington Redskins (+3.5) vs. St. Louis Rams
The Redskins opened as 3-point underdogs and, at the time of publication, were receiving just 12 percent of spread bets. This one-sided public betting pushed the line from +3 to +3.5. Over the past 12 seasons, 18.69 percent of all games were decided by exactly three points, making it the most important key number for bettors.
In addition, this game perfectly fits our mentality of buying on bad news and selling on good. The Rams are riding high after defeating the Seahawks last week, while things couldn't seem grimmer for the Redskins. Washington has been mired in a quarterback controversy and the head coach is on the hot seat. The Skins lost in Week 1 to the Dolphins and will be without star wideoutDeSean Jackson for 3-4 weeks.
The Redskins also fit the criteria for our 2015 NFL betting against the public report, which details a system that has gone 111-66 ATS with +38.06 units won.
With a plethora of indicators in our favor, we're happy to take Washington +3.5 this week.
Cleveland Browns (+1) vs. Tennessee Titans
In his first career start, Titans rookie QB Marcus Mariota completed 13 of 16 passes for 209 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions, which resulted in a perfect QB rating of 158.3.
For Cleveland, QB Josh McCown suffered a concussion in the Browns' 21-point loss against the lowly Jets. With backup Johnny Manziel expected to get the Week 2 start, Cleveland opened as a 2-point favorite but has received just 10 percent of early spread bets. This schism among public bettors has caused Cleveland to move from -2 to +1.
Not only does Cleveland fit our often-discussed 80-20 rule, but teams that lost the previous game by at least 20 points have gone 332-280 ATS (+33.7 units) since 2003, which further validates our system pick.
Johnny Football may be a wild card, but we'll happily buy low and take Cleveland +1 against an overhyped Titans team.
Chicago Bears (+2) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Chicago lost by eight points to Green Bay last week, but there were a lot of positive takeaways for Bears fans. Matt Forte showed he is still an elite back, John Fox looked to be a more capable coach than Marc Trestman, and the team actually entered the fourth quarter with a narrow lead.
Chicago is receiving just 13 percent of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks, which has moved the line from +1.5 to +2. Once again, we'll gladly take this artificially inflated line and bet the Bears as a home underdog for the second straight week.
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</article>Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Betting on the Jaguars is a lot like picking up after your dog. It's not pretty and nobody likes doing it, but most of the time you don't have much of a choice.
The Jaguars are one of the least popular teams among spread bettors and consistently fit our contrarian criteria. This week they opened as 6-point home underdogs and are receiving just 9 percent of spread bets. This lopsided public betting has moved the line to +6.5, but it's worth monitoring throughout the week as it may reach the key number of +7.
Nobody ever wants to bet on the Jaguars, but that's what creates the value. Getting 6.5 points at home, we'll take Jacksonville against its in-state rival.
ESPN INSIDER
With the first week of the NFL season behind us, we can celebrate America's proudest unofficial holiday. No, not May the Fourth (Star Wars Day), March 14th (Pi Day) or even the soon-forgotten International Beer Day. No, I'm talking about Overreaction Monday -- the day after the first weekend of NFL action that's filled with hyperbolic "hot takes" and bold observations that decimate every belief fans held dear before the season.
My advice to you: Do not overreact to Week 1. Last year, hysterical New Englanders lamented the Patriots' 13-point opening loss to the Dolphins. Talk-show faithful said Tom Brady was over the hill, the offensive line was inept, and offseason defensive acquisitions were a colossal mistake. Five months later, the Pats were hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for a fourth time during coach Bill Belichick's reign.
Barely a week into this season, the rumbling begins again -- from claims that Peyton Manning's arm is a wet noodle to Tyrod Taylor's status as the Next Big Thing. Marcus Mariota's greatness has been compared to sliced bread, while the Titans have somehow been transformed from laughingstock to worthy adversary.
Broad statements like these based on a small sampling will likely seem foolish at year's end, but that doesn't calm all the fans who are prone to panic and hysteria. Our goal is to help bettors capitalize on these overreactions.
Football fans place excessive significance on the previous game's outcome, which has created historical value. Since 2003, teams coming off a loss have a winning percentage of 51.0 percent against the spread (ATS). Similarly, bettors would win 50.9 percent of their spread bets by fading teams that won the previous game. When we combine these filters and look at teams coming off a loss against teams coming off a victory, that winning percentage increases to 52.0 percent.
This shows a clear edge, one we believe will be amplified based on Week 1 overreactions. We found that underdogs (since 2003) coming off a loss have gone 51-37 ATS in Week 2, while home teams have shown exceptional value, with a 26-12 ATS record and +12.77 units won.
Last week our system matches went 2-1 ATS, and we will look to continue our winning ways. Here are our best contrarian system bets for NFL Week 2.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; padding: 0px !important;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lost Week 1 Game | 77-75 (50.7%) | -0.78 | -0.5% |
| Underdog, Lost Week 1 Game | 51-37 (58.0%) | +11.73 | +13.3% |
| Home Underdog, Lost Week 1 Game | 26-12 (68.4%) | +12.77 | +33.6% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-weight: 600; height: 39px; line-height: 32px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 12px; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; background: rgb(221, 221, 221);">Week 2 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 1px 0px 1px 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 10px; font-weight: 600; line-height: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 6px 12px; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgb(242, 242, 242);">
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Why does this work?
Oddsmakers understand the behavior that drives public betting. Teams that lost the previous game aren't popular among square sports bettors, and as a result, sportsbooks shade their opening lines to make these teams more desirable.
Last week, we explained that these shaded lines create additional value for the contrarian bettor willing to take an unpopular stance. Getting an extra point or half-point based on public perception can increase your expected winning percentage by 2-5 percent, which is crucial for long-term success in the sports betting marketplace. The importance of that extra half-point is amplified around key numbers like 3, 7 and 10.
[h=2]Week 2 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Wednesday morning.
Washington Redskins (+3.5) vs. St. Louis Rams
The Redskins opened as 3-point underdogs and, at the time of publication, were receiving just 12 percent of spread bets. This one-sided public betting pushed the line from +3 to +3.5. Over the past 12 seasons, 18.69 percent of all games were decided by exactly three points, making it the most important key number for bettors.
In addition, this game perfectly fits our mentality of buying on bad news and selling on good. The Rams are riding high after defeating the Seahawks last week, while things couldn't seem grimmer for the Redskins. Washington has been mired in a quarterback controversy and the head coach is on the hot seat. The Skins lost in Week 1 to the Dolphins and will be without star wideoutDeSean Jackson for 3-4 weeks.
The Redskins also fit the criteria for our 2015 NFL betting against the public report, which details a system that has gone 111-66 ATS with +38.06 units won.
With a plethora of indicators in our favor, we're happy to take Washington +3.5 this week.
Cleveland Browns (+1) vs. Tennessee Titans
In his first career start, Titans rookie QB Marcus Mariota completed 13 of 16 passes for 209 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions, which resulted in a perfect QB rating of 158.3.
For Cleveland, QB Josh McCown suffered a concussion in the Browns' 21-point loss against the lowly Jets. With backup Johnny Manziel expected to get the Week 2 start, Cleveland opened as a 2-point favorite but has received just 10 percent of early spread bets. This schism among public bettors has caused Cleveland to move from -2 to +1.
Not only does Cleveland fit our often-discussed 80-20 rule, but teams that lost the previous game by at least 20 points have gone 332-280 ATS (+33.7 units) since 2003, which further validates our system pick.
Johnny Football may be a wild card, but we'll happily buy low and take Cleveland +1 against an overhyped Titans team.
Chicago Bears (+2) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Chicago lost by eight points to Green Bay last week, but there were a lot of positive takeaways for Bears fans. Matt Forte showed he is still an elite back, John Fox looked to be a more capable coach than Marc Trestman, and the team actually entered the fourth quarter with a narrow lead.
Chicago is receiving just 13 percent of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks, which has moved the line from +1.5 to +2. Once again, we'll gladly take this artificially inflated line and bet the Bears as a home underdog for the second straight week.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Betting on the Jaguars is a lot like picking up after your dog. It's not pretty and nobody likes doing it, but most of the time you don't have much of a choice.
The Jaguars are one of the least popular teams among spread bettors and consistently fit our contrarian criteria. This week they opened as 6-point home underdogs and are receiving just 9 percent of spread bets. This lopsided public betting has moved the line to +6.5, but it's worth monitoring throughout the week as it may reach the key number of +7.
Nobody ever wants to bet on the Jaguars, but that's what creates the value. Getting 6.5 points at home, we'll take Jacksonville against its in-state rival.
