[h=1]Where contrarian betting value lies in NFL Week 10[/h]David Solar, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
More than halfway through the season, our contrarian strategies continue to succeed. Underdogs alone have gone 70-57 against the spread (55.12 percent), while underdogs receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets have posted a record 21-14 against the spread (60.0 percent). Although our system picks weigh in at 15-13 against the spread this season, bad luck is also a factor, as the featured systems have combined to go 42-30 against the spread on the year.
This week's newly created contrarian system seeks to find value by capitalizing on square bettors' tendency to overvalue home-field advantage and undervalue teams coming off a loss.
Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, we expanded upon our previous research to find the best opportunities to buy low and utilize market overreactions.
Our past research indicates visitors consistently provide value for bettors, but teams in the midst of a road streak have been particularly profitable. Since 2003, visitors have gone 1,640-1,565 against the spread (51.2 percent), which exhibits a clear edge. However, when that team has played at least two consecutive road games, the record improves dramatically (475-381 against the spread, 55.5 percent).
We explain ad nauseam how square bettors consistently overreact to negative events. Last week we focused on teams who had been blown out in their previous game, but there has been value for all teams that lost their previous game.
Our database shows that visiting teams that lost their previous game have gone 714-625 against the spread (53.3 percent), but that record improves to 285-196 against the spread (59.3 percent) when they have played at least two consecutive road games.
Although simply looking at teams on road streaks coming off a loss has produced exceptional returns, there was one more filter we wanted to layer onto our system.
We frequently examine the line movement from open to close -- in conjunction with our public betting trends -- to determine which factors are driving line movement. If, for example, Team A moves from -4 to -5 or +7 to +6, it would indicate that they have received a higher number of total dollars wagered or they are being hammered by well-respected sharps.
With this knowledge driving our decision, we chose to factor out any game in which the line moved against us. This simple addition caused our sample size to drop substantially, but our return on investment jumped from 16.0 percent to 26.9 percent.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 10 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tfoot></aside>"Units won" is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $6,406 -- $100 x 64.06 units -- following the system.
Why does this work?
If you are a weekly reader, you're likely tired of hearing us explain how bettors are prone to overreacting to the past week's results; however, that's a large part of contrarian betting. Bettors typically eschew teams that have not played well recently in favor of whichever flavor of the week seems to be trending upward.
Oddsmakers can accurately anticipate this public perception and react by shading their opening lines to force these bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game.
By tracking the line movement and looking for historically profitable betting trends, we are able to exploit these shaded lines and ensure that we're taking teams that are receiving sharp action.
[h=2]Week 10 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Detroit Lions (+11) at Green Bay Packers
I can unequivocally state that the Detroit Lions are one of the strongest plays of the season, as they fit several previously discussed betting systems and have already triggered numerous sharp money indicators.
Since 2003, double-digit underdogs have gone 221-190 against the spread (53.8 percent) during the regular season and that record improves to 93-68 against the spread (57.8 percent) in division games. The Lions are currently receiving just 24 percent of spread bets and fit our Week 6, Week 7, Week 8 and Week 9 betting systems.
In addition, there was a reverse line-movement alert triggered on Detroit at Pinnacle, which is one of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks. This is an excellent indicator that early sharp money loves the Lions.
Need more reasons to back Detroit? We always advocate that bettors buy on bad news, and after Lions allowed 45 points to the Chiefs in London, now is the opportune time to buy low. In fact, teams that allowed at least 42 points in their previous game have gone 116-81 against the spread (58.9 percent).
Following a contrarian betting strategy requires that bettors take some ugly plays, and this game undoubtedly qualifies. The Lions have been atrocious and borderline unwatchable this season, but 11 points is simply too much in this divisional rivalry.
Cleveland Browns (+4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite the fact that Landry Jones will be filling in for the injured Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers opened as 4.5-point favorites and have received 71 percent of spread bets. This has certainly created contrarian value along with additional sharp money indicators pointing toward value on the Browns.
We have already mentioned how underdogs have performed exceptionally well in division games due to the familiarity between teams, but there have also been a number of betting systems triggered on Cleveland.
The Browns fit our Week 3 and Week 9 betting systems, as well as an unpublished betting system that has gone 97-53 against the spread (64.7 percent) and focuses on teams that were blown out by "good" teams in their previous game.
In what should be a low-scoring game, we'll gladly take Cleveland and the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Taking Jacksonville as a contrarian play is a lot like my workout schedule: It happens once every week or two, and I usually feel sick afterward.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>This week the Jaguars opened as six-point road underdogs against the injury-depleted Ravens, and they have dropped to +5.5 in early betting. Considering Baltimore's 2-6 record and the season-ending injuries to Steve Smith Sr., Terrell Suggs and Matt Elam, this line comes as somewhat of a surprise.
The most likely rational is that oddsmakers have shaded their lines because the Ravens are coming off a bye week. In our database, teams with at least 11 days between games have gone 224-203 against the spread (52.5 percent), but the tide has been changing in recent years. Since the start of the 2010 season, those same teams have gone just 80-87 against the spread (47.9 percent).
Many offshore sportsbooks are still offering Jacksonville +6, so make sure to shop for the best line before placing your bet.
These lines are always subject to change, so be sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
ESPN INSIDER
More than halfway through the season, our contrarian strategies continue to succeed. Underdogs alone have gone 70-57 against the spread (55.12 percent), while underdogs receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets have posted a record 21-14 against the spread (60.0 percent). Although our system picks weigh in at 15-13 against the spread this season, bad luck is also a factor, as the featured systems have combined to go 42-30 against the spread on the year.
This week's newly created contrarian system seeks to find value by capitalizing on square bettors' tendency to overvalue home-field advantage and undervalue teams coming off a loss.
Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, we expanded upon our previous research to find the best opportunities to buy low and utilize market overreactions.
Our past research indicates visitors consistently provide value for bettors, but teams in the midst of a road streak have been particularly profitable. Since 2003, visitors have gone 1,640-1,565 against the spread (51.2 percent), which exhibits a clear edge. However, when that team has played at least two consecutive road games, the record improves dramatically (475-381 against the spread, 55.5 percent).
We explain ad nauseam how square bettors consistently overreact to negative events. Last week we focused on teams who had been blown out in their previous game, but there has been value for all teams that lost their previous game.
Our database shows that visiting teams that lost their previous game have gone 714-625 against the spread (53.3 percent), but that record improves to 285-196 against the spread (59.3 percent) when they have played at least two consecutive road games.
Although simply looking at teams on road streaks coming off a loss has produced exceptional returns, there was one more filter we wanted to layer onto our system.
We frequently examine the line movement from open to close -- in conjunction with our public betting trends -- to determine which factors are driving line movement. If, for example, Team A moves from -4 to -5 or +7 to +6, it would indicate that they have received a higher number of total dollars wagered or they are being hammered by well-respected sharps.
With this knowledge driving our decision, we chose to factor out any game in which the line moved against us. This simple addition caused our sample size to drop substantially, but our return on investment jumped from 16.0 percent to 26.9 percent.
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| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON |
|---|---|---|
| Road Teams | 1,640-1,565 (51.2%) | +3.03 |
| Road Streak of 2+ Games | 475-381 (55.5%) | +75.16 |
| Road Streak of 2+ Games, Lost Previous Game | 285-196 (59.3%) | +76.88 |
| Road Streak 2+, Lost Pvs Game, Favorable Line Move | 154-84 (64.7%) | +64.06 |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 10 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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Why does this work?
If you are a weekly reader, you're likely tired of hearing us explain how bettors are prone to overreacting to the past week's results; however, that's a large part of contrarian betting. Bettors typically eschew teams that have not played well recently in favor of whichever flavor of the week seems to be trending upward.
Oddsmakers can accurately anticipate this public perception and react by shading their opening lines to force these bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game.
By tracking the line movement and looking for historically profitable betting trends, we are able to exploit these shaded lines and ensure that we're taking teams that are receiving sharp action.
[h=2]Week 10 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Detroit Lions (+11) at Green Bay Packers
I can unequivocally state that the Detroit Lions are one of the strongest plays of the season, as they fit several previously discussed betting systems and have already triggered numerous sharp money indicators.
Since 2003, double-digit underdogs have gone 221-190 against the spread (53.8 percent) during the regular season and that record improves to 93-68 against the spread (57.8 percent) in division games. The Lions are currently receiving just 24 percent of spread bets and fit our Week 6, Week 7, Week 8 and Week 9 betting systems.
In addition, there was a reverse line-movement alert triggered on Detroit at Pinnacle, which is one of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks. This is an excellent indicator that early sharp money loves the Lions.
Need more reasons to back Detroit? We always advocate that bettors buy on bad news, and after Lions allowed 45 points to the Chiefs in London, now is the opportune time to buy low. In fact, teams that allowed at least 42 points in their previous game have gone 116-81 against the spread (58.9 percent).
Following a contrarian betting strategy requires that bettors take some ugly plays, and this game undoubtedly qualifies. The Lions have been atrocious and borderline unwatchable this season, but 11 points is simply too much in this divisional rivalry.
Cleveland Browns (+4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite the fact that Landry Jones will be filling in for the injured Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers opened as 4.5-point favorites and have received 71 percent of spread bets. This has certainly created contrarian value along with additional sharp money indicators pointing toward value on the Browns.
We have already mentioned how underdogs have performed exceptionally well in division games due to the familiarity between teams, but there have also been a number of betting systems triggered on Cleveland.
The Browns fit our Week 3 and Week 9 betting systems, as well as an unpublished betting system that has gone 97-53 against the spread (64.7 percent) and focuses on teams that were blown out by "good" teams in their previous game.
In what should be a low-scoring game, we'll gladly take Cleveland and the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Taking Jacksonville as a contrarian play is a lot like my workout schedule: It happens once every week or two, and I usually feel sick afterward.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>This week the Jaguars opened as six-point road underdogs against the injury-depleted Ravens, and they have dropped to +5.5 in early betting. Considering Baltimore's 2-6 record and the season-ending injuries to Steve Smith Sr., Terrell Suggs and Matt Elam, this line comes as somewhat of a surprise.
The most likely rational is that oddsmakers have shaded their lines because the Ravens are coming off a bye week. In our database, teams with at least 11 days between games have gone 224-203 against the spread (52.5 percent), but the tide has been changing in recent years. Since the start of the 2010 season, those same teams have gone just 80-87 against the spread (47.9 percent).
Many offshore sportsbooks are still offering Jacksonville +6, so make sure to shop for the best line before placing your bet.
These lines are always subject to change, so be sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
