[h=1]Sports Insights' contrarian betting strategy for Week 6 of the NFL[/h]David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
When discussing contrarian betting in the NFL, there are many strategies that can be used to extract value each week. Betting against the public is one of the cornerstone philosophies implemented by Sports Insights, but there are many ways that bettors can use public betting information in conjunction with historically profitable trends.
In last week's column, I explained how bettors could find value by going against the public and buying low after a loss. Sportsbooks shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception and, assuming books don't receive balancing action from their sharpest bettors, one-sided public betting will continue to inflate the number, which creates additional value for bettors willing to back the unpopular side of a game.
The betting system featured in Week 5 focused on underdogs receiving less than 25 percent of spread bets, but the highest return on investment actually came at the 20 percent threshold. Since the start of the 2003 season, underdogs receiving no more than 20 percent of spread bets have gone <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>107-85 ATS (55.7 percent) with +16.66 units won; hence, it was termed the "80-20 rule."
This is the sports equivalent of contrarian investing -- find out what everybody else is doing, and do the exact opposite. In the real world, somebody who consistently disagrees with others is often described as combative and antagonizing, but for bettors it's highly profitable to challenge the status quo.
Oddsmakers will only adjust their point spreads based on public money in games with extreme levels of one-sided betting, but with many sportsbooks adapting and changing the manner in which they operate, sometimes betting against the public isn't enough. That's why it's crucial to account for supplementary trends.
Past research has found that underdogs are slightly undervalued in conference games, since the familiarity between teams levels the playing field. That disproportionately benefits the team getting points. In fact, my analysis shows that teams fitting the 80-20 rule have covered at a 56.6 percent clip in conference games, but only covered 53.6 percent of the time against non-conference opponents.
By examining progressively larger underdogs, our ATS win rate and return on investment (ROI) both climb steadily. It's also worth noting that this strategy has been highly lucrative for both home teams and visitors. Week 6 Betting System
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020;">Betting Underdogs In Conference Games</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</aside>Why does this work?
Imagine the sports betting marketplace as a seesaw. If too many bettors load up on one side (typically caused by an overreaction to recent results), oddsmakers need to even up the weight on the other side of the seesaw by adjusting the line and encouraging action on their opponent. These shaded lines create additional value for contrarian bettors that are willing to take the unpopular side and go against the grain.
As I've stated repeatedly in this column that the public loves betting favorites, which is why most of my contrarian systems focus on underdogs. When public bettors hammer the favorite, oddsmakers often shift the betting lines to encourage action on the underdog.
After examining these 55 past system matches on underdogs of seven-plus points, my research found that the opening line has improved in 33 games, declined in 8 games, and remained unchanged in 14 games. That means bettors should wait until closer to game time before placing their wager -- particularly when attempting to exploit lines that have been artificially inflated by public bettors.
Past system matches mentioned are always based on the closing line at Pinnacle, so it's important that bettors visit ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page to ensure that games still fit the aforementioned criteria before placing a wager.
Casual bettors habitually overreact to recent results and place bets purely based on instinct. These weekend warriors often wait until Sunday morning to place their wagers, and this influx of public money will often cause massive line movements right before kickoff.
This season, five favorites have received at least 75 percent of spread bets, and the underdogs have gone 4-1 ATS in these games. Bettors shouldn't always take favorites late and underdogs early, but they should consider this strategy when looking at extremely one-sided levels of public betting.
[h=2]Week 6 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
[h=3]Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5) at New England Patriots[/h]I always encourage bettors to buy on bad news and sell on good news, and bettors will certainly have that opportunity this weekend. Last week the Bengals lost by 14-points to the Cowboys, while the Patriots dominated the Browns inTom Brady's return from suspension.
The Patriots opened as 7.5-point favorites and, according to Sports Insights public betting trends, have received 83 percent of spread bets and 85 percent of total dollars wagered. This overwhelming public support has caused the line to move from New England -7.5 to -8.5. There's already value jumping on that artificially inflated line, but it's particularly noteworthy since the preseason lookahead line was New England -4.
Since 2003, teams playing in their second consecutive road game have gone 504-400 ATS (55.8 percent), which also points towards value on the Bengals. It's also fascinating to see that Andy Dalton has gone 22-10 ATS (68.8 percent) as an underdog during the regular season.
Sports Insights' Bet Signals triggered a reverse-line move on Cincinnati, which further indicates they are offering value. The Bengals currently fit last week's system as well, and this seems like an excellent opportunity to buy low on a very talented team.
This line is currently in no man's land, so ideally bettors would wait until later in the week to back Cincy. If the line reaches Bengals +10, get ready to pounce -- no pun intended.
The pick: Bengals +8.5
[h=3]Miami Dolphins (+7.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]In the two games since Le'Veon Bell returned from suspension, Pittsburgh has outscored its opponents 74-27. That means the Steelers are the perfect sell-high candidate.
The Steelers opened as 7-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, receiving 87 percent of spread bets and 84 percent of total dollars wagered. Once again, this one-sided public betting has caused the line to move from Pittsburgh -7 to -7.5.
Since 2003, home underdogs of at least seven points have gone 125-96 ATS (56.6 percent), including a 100-70 ATS (58.8 percent) record against conference opponents. The Dolphins also fit the criteria for last season's Week 6 system, further validating this pick.
Over his career Ryan Tannehill has gone just 29-39 ATS (42.6 percent), but he's actually been productive (7-4 ATS) as a home underdog. Coming off of a 13-point home loss, this could be another buy low opportunity.
The pick: Dolphins +7.5
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
When discussing contrarian betting in the NFL, there are many strategies that can be used to extract value each week. Betting against the public is one of the cornerstone philosophies implemented by Sports Insights, but there are many ways that bettors can use public betting information in conjunction with historically profitable trends.
In last week's column, I explained how bettors could find value by going against the public and buying low after a loss. Sportsbooks shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception and, assuming books don't receive balancing action from their sharpest bettors, one-sided public betting will continue to inflate the number, which creates additional value for bettors willing to back the unpopular side of a game.
The betting system featured in Week 5 focused on underdogs receiving less than 25 percent of spread bets, but the highest return on investment actually came at the 20 percent threshold. Since the start of the 2003 season, underdogs receiving no more than 20 percent of spread bets have gone <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>107-85 ATS (55.7 percent) with +16.66 units won; hence, it was termed the "80-20 rule."
This is the sports equivalent of contrarian investing -- find out what everybody else is doing, and do the exact opposite. In the real world, somebody who consistently disagrees with others is often described as combative and antagonizing, but for bettors it's highly profitable to challenge the status quo.
Oddsmakers will only adjust their point spreads based on public money in games with extreme levels of one-sided betting, but with many sportsbooks adapting and changing the manner in which they operate, sometimes betting against the public isn't enough. That's why it's crucial to account for supplementary trends.
Past research has found that underdogs are slightly undervalued in conference games, since the familiarity between teams levels the playing field. That disproportionately benefits the team getting points. In fact, my analysis shows that teams fitting the 80-20 rule have covered at a 56.6 percent clip in conference games, but only covered 53.6 percent of the time against non-conference opponents.
By examining progressively larger underdogs, our ATS win rate and return on investment (ROI) both climb steadily. It's also worth noting that this strategy has been highly lucrative for both home teams and visitors. Week 6 Betting System
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | *ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Underdogs in conference games | 77-59 (56.6%) | +14.30 | +10.5% |
| Underdogs of 3+ points in conference games | 73-52 (58.4%) | +17.23 | +13.7% |
| Underdogs of 5+ points in conference games | 58-32 (64.4%) | +22.72 | +25.2% |
| Underdogs of 7+ points in conference games | 39-16 (70.9%) | +20.40 | +37.1% |
| * - In games that fit the "80/20" rule | |||
| Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020;">Betting Underdogs In Conference Games</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
</aside>Why does this work?
Imagine the sports betting marketplace as a seesaw. If too many bettors load up on one side (typically caused by an overreaction to recent results), oddsmakers need to even up the weight on the other side of the seesaw by adjusting the line and encouraging action on their opponent. These shaded lines create additional value for contrarian bettors that are willing to take the unpopular side and go against the grain.
As I've stated repeatedly in this column that the public loves betting favorites, which is why most of my contrarian systems focus on underdogs. When public bettors hammer the favorite, oddsmakers often shift the betting lines to encourage action on the underdog.
After examining these 55 past system matches on underdogs of seven-plus points, my research found that the opening line has improved in 33 games, declined in 8 games, and remained unchanged in 14 games. That means bettors should wait until closer to game time before placing their wager -- particularly when attempting to exploit lines that have been artificially inflated by public bettors.
Past system matches mentioned are always based on the closing line at Pinnacle, so it's important that bettors visit ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page to ensure that games still fit the aforementioned criteria before placing a wager.
Casual bettors habitually overreact to recent results and place bets purely based on instinct. These weekend warriors often wait until Sunday morning to place their wagers, and this influx of public money will often cause massive line movements right before kickoff.
This season, five favorites have received at least 75 percent of spread bets, and the underdogs have gone 4-1 ATS in these games. Bettors shouldn't always take favorites late and underdogs early, but they should consider this strategy when looking at extremely one-sided levels of public betting.
[h=2]Week 6 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
[h=3]Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5) at New England Patriots[/h]I always encourage bettors to buy on bad news and sell on good news, and bettors will certainly have that opportunity this weekend. Last week the Bengals lost by 14-points to the Cowboys, while the Patriots dominated the Browns inTom Brady's return from suspension.
The Patriots opened as 7.5-point favorites and, according to Sports Insights public betting trends, have received 83 percent of spread bets and 85 percent of total dollars wagered. This overwhelming public support has caused the line to move from New England -7.5 to -8.5. There's already value jumping on that artificially inflated line, but it's particularly noteworthy since the preseason lookahead line was New England -4.
Since 2003, teams playing in their second consecutive road game have gone 504-400 ATS (55.8 percent), which also points towards value on the Bengals. It's also fascinating to see that Andy Dalton has gone 22-10 ATS (68.8 percent) as an underdog during the regular season.
Sports Insights' Bet Signals triggered a reverse-line move on Cincinnati, which further indicates they are offering value. The Bengals currently fit last week's system as well, and this seems like an excellent opportunity to buy low on a very talented team.
This line is currently in no man's land, so ideally bettors would wait until later in the week to back Cincy. If the line reaches Bengals +10, get ready to pounce -- no pun intended.
The pick: Bengals +8.5
[h=3]Miami Dolphins (+7.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]In the two games since Le'Veon Bell returned from suspension, Pittsburgh has outscored its opponents 74-27. That means the Steelers are the perfect sell-high candidate.
The Steelers opened as 7-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, receiving 87 percent of spread bets and 84 percent of total dollars wagered. Once again, this one-sided public betting has caused the line to move from Pittsburgh -7 to -7.5.
Since 2003, home underdogs of at least seven points have gone 125-96 ATS (56.6 percent), including a 100-70 ATS (58.8 percent) record against conference opponents. The Dolphins also fit the criteria for last season's Week 6 system, further validating this pick.
Over his career Ryan Tannehill has gone just 29-39 ATS (42.6 percent), but he's actually been productive (7-4 ATS) as a home underdog. Coming off of a 13-point home loss, this could be another buy low opportunity.
The pick: Dolphins +7.5
