Sports Insights' contrarian betting strategy for Week 2 of the NFL
David Solar
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
After one week of NFL action, the contrarian approach continues to provide profitable results for bettors. Last week's system matches were 2-1 against the spread (ATS), which pushes the record to 27-20 ATS (57.4 percent) since the inception of this article last year.
As I have previously explained, the goal of this column it to extract value by capitalizing on market overreactions and exploiting artificially inflated lines created by public perception and betting habits.
Since the start of the 2003 season, a majority of spread bets have been placed on the favorite in more than 81 percent of all regular season games. Oddsmakers understand this tendency and shade their lines to account for the inevitable influx of public money on the chalk. These shaded lines have created additional value on the underdog.
Over the past 13 seasons, underdogs have covered at a <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>50.5 percent rate. Large underdogs have been particularly profitable with 'dogs of at least three points covering at a 50.9 percent rate, 'dogs of at least seven points covering at a 52 percent rate, and 'dogs of at least 10 points cover at a 54 percent rate.
Casual bettors tend to overvalue home-field advantage, which has created additional value on visitors. There has been a general consensus that home-field advantage is worth around three points to the spread, although the figure varies based on venue. My research found that home teams have won by an average of 2.56 points/game, which seems to disprove this widely held notion.
There is also a large segment of the betting population that believes that home-field advantage is heightened in divisional rivalries since the excitement of playing a familiar rival leads to louder, more raucous crowds. That assessment is patently false. Visitors have been tremendously undervalued in divisional games, especially road underdogs in low-scoring games.
In a recent article on the Sports Insights blog, I found that the average combined score during the 2015-16 season was 45.46. Using that as the starting point, I defined "low scoring" as any game with a closing total of 45.5 or less.
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</aside>Why does this work?
My analysis found that familiarity between teams levels that playing field, and that disproportionately benefits the team getting points. That edge has been magnified in games with low totals since points are at even more of a premium.
Since 2003, road underdogs in low-scoring divisional games have gone 318-253 ATS (55.7 percent) with +50.38 units won. It has been particularly profitable over the past two seasons, with system matches going 50-29 ATS (63.3 percent) with +18.71 units won.
To learn more about how sportsbooks view NFL home-field advantage, I reached out to Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for the market-setting Bookmaker.eu. "I do think [home-field advantage] is overvalued a tad. There are certainly circumstances where you might place more value on home-field advantage, such as the Vikings opening a new stadium this coming week, but for the most part it is worth 1-2 points."
Cooley elaborated that the Seahawks' home-field advantage is worth between 3-4 points, which is the highest in football. He also mentioned Lambeau, Arrowhead and Heinz Field as three stadiums where the home team has added value.
Last week, I examined a small sample size to capitalize on public perception during the opening week of the NFL season. This system is meant to identify several consistently profitable edges that bettors can utilize throughout the regular season. Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday evening.
Week 2 system matches
New York Jets (PK) at Buffalo Bills
In this week's Thursday night game, the Buffalo Bills opened as 3-point favorites against the New York Jets. Both sharp money and public money immediately came down on the Jets, which caused the line to drop three points. Although this game is currently a pick 'em, the Bills are still a slight favorite on the moneyline.
The Jets are offering value as a road underdog in this low-scoring divisional rivalry game, but there are several additional reasons to love Gang Green. Since 2003, visitors have gone 219-180 ATS (54.9 percent) on short rest. In divisional games, that win rate jumps to 59.6 percent.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has previously struggled against Rex Ryan-coached teams, but my numbers have the Jets ranked as the vastly superior team. Some of that early value is gone, but I still like the road team in this divisional showdown.
The pick: Jets PK
Miami Dolphins (+6.5) at New England Patriots
I'm a firm believer in a flat betting strategy with a consistent unit size, but it's worth noting that this game has triggered the most system matches in recent memory.
After beating the Cardinals in a nationally televised Sunday Night game, the Patriots opened as 5-point favorites at the Westgate. At the time of publication, 71 percent of total dollars wagered had taken the Patriots, which caused the line to move from minus-5 to minus-6.5. Since no bet signals have been triggered on this game, it's safe to say that public money is solely responsible for this 1.5-point line move.
This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Dolphins and sell high on the Patriots. It's also worth noting that Miami fits the criteria for our Week 3 and Week 5 systems from last season.
Last season the Dolphins won just six games, and historically there has been value taking these cellar dwellers in early season games, while the public is still overvaluing last season's results.
Jimmy Garoppolo had several months to prepare for the Cardinals, but he'll only have one week to prepare for the Dolphins. I'm anticipating a significant regression in this low-scoring game.
The pick: Dolphins +6.5
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Washington Redskins
In one of this week's most interesting games, the Dallas Cowboys opened as 3.5-point underdogs against the Washington Redskins, with an over/under of 46.5. Within hours of opening, the Cowboys had dropped from plus-3.5 to plus-2.5. That's a significant line move considering that "3" is the most common margin of victory.
Past analysis has found that teams who have played two consecutive home games are vastly overvalued. I have also found that it's profitable betting against teams who lost on Monday night. Both of those factors point toward value fading the Redskins this weekend.
The Cowboys are one of the most public teams, and it will be rare that they're listed as a contrarian system pick. That said, they're an excellent value in this NFC East showdown.
I should note that Dallas plus-3 is available at several offshore sportsbooks, so be sure to shop for the best line before placing your wager.
The pick: Cowboys +2.5
These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
David Solar
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
After one week of NFL action, the contrarian approach continues to provide profitable results for bettors. Last week's system matches were 2-1 against the spread (ATS), which pushes the record to 27-20 ATS (57.4 percent) since the inception of this article last year.
As I have previously explained, the goal of this column it to extract value by capitalizing on market overreactions and exploiting artificially inflated lines created by public perception and betting habits.
Since the start of the 2003 season, a majority of spread bets have been placed on the favorite in more than 81 percent of all regular season games. Oddsmakers understand this tendency and shade their lines to account for the inevitable influx of public money on the chalk. These shaded lines have created additional value on the underdog.
Over the past 13 seasons, underdogs have covered at a <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>50.5 percent rate. Large underdogs have been particularly profitable with 'dogs of at least three points covering at a 50.9 percent rate, 'dogs of at least seven points covering at a 52 percent rate, and 'dogs of at least 10 points cover at a 54 percent rate.
Casual bettors tend to overvalue home-field advantage, which has created additional value on visitors. There has been a general consensus that home-field advantage is worth around three points to the spread, although the figure varies based on venue. My research found that home teams have won by an average of 2.56 points/game, which seems to disprove this widely held notion.
There is also a large segment of the betting population that believes that home-field advantage is heightened in divisional rivalries since the excitement of playing a familiar rival leads to louder, more raucous crowds. That assessment is patently false. Visitors have been tremendously undervalued in divisional games, especially road underdogs in low-scoring games.
In a recent article on the Sports Insights blog, I found that the average combined score during the 2015-16 season was 45.46. Using that as the starting point, I defined "low scoring" as any game with a closing total of 45.5 or less.
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| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog | 1,634-1,603 (50.5 percent) | -43.78 | -1.4 percent |
| Road Underdog | 1,108-1,046 (51.4 percent) | +11.21 | +0.5 percent |
| Road Underdog, Divisional Game | 426-359 (54.3 percent) | +46.31 | +5.9 percent |
| Road Underdog, Divisional Game, O/U <46 | 318-253 (55.7 percent) | +50.38 | +8.8 percent |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
<tbody>
</tbody>
</aside>Why does this work?
My analysis found that familiarity between teams levels that playing field, and that disproportionately benefits the team getting points. That edge has been magnified in games with low totals since points are at even more of a premium.
Since 2003, road underdogs in low-scoring divisional games have gone 318-253 ATS (55.7 percent) with +50.38 units won. It has been particularly profitable over the past two seasons, with system matches going 50-29 ATS (63.3 percent) with +18.71 units won.
To learn more about how sportsbooks view NFL home-field advantage, I reached out to Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for the market-setting Bookmaker.eu. "I do think [home-field advantage] is overvalued a tad. There are certainly circumstances where you might place more value on home-field advantage, such as the Vikings opening a new stadium this coming week, but for the most part it is worth 1-2 points."
Cooley elaborated that the Seahawks' home-field advantage is worth between 3-4 points, which is the highest in football. He also mentioned Lambeau, Arrowhead and Heinz Field as three stadiums where the home team has added value.
Last week, I examined a small sample size to capitalize on public perception during the opening week of the NFL season. This system is meant to identify several consistently profitable edges that bettors can utilize throughout the regular season. Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday evening.
Week 2 system matches
New York Jets (PK) at Buffalo Bills
In this week's Thursday night game, the Buffalo Bills opened as 3-point favorites against the New York Jets. Both sharp money and public money immediately came down on the Jets, which caused the line to drop three points. Although this game is currently a pick 'em, the Bills are still a slight favorite on the moneyline.
The Jets are offering value as a road underdog in this low-scoring divisional rivalry game, but there are several additional reasons to love Gang Green. Since 2003, visitors have gone 219-180 ATS (54.9 percent) on short rest. In divisional games, that win rate jumps to 59.6 percent.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has previously struggled against Rex Ryan-coached teams, but my numbers have the Jets ranked as the vastly superior team. Some of that early value is gone, but I still like the road team in this divisional showdown.
The pick: Jets PK
Miami Dolphins (+6.5) at New England Patriots
I'm a firm believer in a flat betting strategy with a consistent unit size, but it's worth noting that this game has triggered the most system matches in recent memory.
After beating the Cardinals in a nationally televised Sunday Night game, the Patriots opened as 5-point favorites at the Westgate. At the time of publication, 71 percent of total dollars wagered had taken the Patriots, which caused the line to move from minus-5 to minus-6.5. Since no bet signals have been triggered on this game, it's safe to say that public money is solely responsible for this 1.5-point line move.
This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Dolphins and sell high on the Patriots. It's also worth noting that Miami fits the criteria for our Week 3 and Week 5 systems from last season.
Last season the Dolphins won just six games, and historically there has been value taking these cellar dwellers in early season games, while the public is still overvaluing last season's results.
Jimmy Garoppolo had several months to prepare for the Cardinals, but he'll only have one week to prepare for the Dolphins. I'm anticipating a significant regression in this low-scoring game.
The pick: Dolphins +6.5
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Washington Redskins
In one of this week's most interesting games, the Dallas Cowboys opened as 3.5-point underdogs against the Washington Redskins, with an over/under of 46.5. Within hours of opening, the Cowboys had dropped from plus-3.5 to plus-2.5. That's a significant line move considering that "3" is the most common margin of victory.
Past analysis has found that teams who have played two consecutive home games are vastly overvalued. I have also found that it's profitable betting against teams who lost on Monday night. Both of those factors point toward value fading the Redskins this weekend.
The Cowboys are one of the most public teams, and it will be rare that they're listed as a contrarian system pick. That said, they're an excellent value in this NFC East showdown.
I should note that Dallas plus-3 is available at several offshore sportsbooks, so be sure to shop for the best line before placing your wager.
The pick: Cowboys +2.5
These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
