Sports Insights' contrarian betting strategy for Week 1 of the NFL
PJ Walsh
ESPN INSIDER
9/6/17
The 2017 NFL season is set to kickoff on Thursday with the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to New England to take on the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots. While Week 1 doesn't get rolling until the first week of September, the frenetic appetite of NFL fans inspires the mainstream sports media to pump out 24/7 NFL content months in advance. Fantasy football has only amplified this further, as fans are digging for more content, statistics, trends and edges all summer long to win annual bragging rights among their league mates.
In fact, sportsbooks have capitalized on the ever-increasing desire for NFL coverage by releasing lines for Week 1 games months in advance. Market-setting sportsbooks like Westgate and Bookmaker opened their numbers way back in April, giving bettors four and a half months to analyze Week 1 lines.
However, a very small percentage of the information released over that span is actually meaningful, leading to public bettors overanalyzing mainstream media reports, coach speak and preseason game results. For the purpose of this column, we define public bettors as recreational bettors who place their wagers based on their gut instincts and often overreact to the most recent results and data. Public bettors historically bet for "action" because they'll be watching a game instead of betting value, which is a key difference between recreational players and professional bettors.
Understanding that the combination of a long offseason of NFL content/analysis and the tendency of public bettors to overvalue last season's records allows contrarian bettors to pin down valuable betting opportunities being overlooked by average NFL bettors. With this in mind, I turned to our Bet Labs sports betting analysis software and created a Week 1 NFL betting system that has returned a profit of plus-17.85 units and an ROI (return on investment) of +35.7 percent and covers the spread by an average of 4.82 points since the start of the 2005 season.
To start, I looked at how teams that didn't make the playoffs performed against teams that did. From a high level, it's reasonable to assume that bettors will overvalue last year's playoffs teams, especially when playing a "bad" team (defined by not making the playoffs) from last year. This simple concept returned an ATS (against the spread) win rate of 59.8 percent, plus-12.61 units won and an ROI of 15.4 percent since 2005.
Expanding on the theory that public bettors will fade (or bet against) poor teams from the previous season, I then filtered down our non-playoff teams even further by including only those that finished the year with an ATS record of below 50 percent. This ensures that we're isolating teams that were not profitable for bettors, providing even more reason for public bettors to avoid them in Week 1.
Why does this work?
I touched on it a bit in the introduction, but the saturation of NFL content and analysis during the summer months drives bettors to overvalue last year's "good" teams that made the playoffs. Conversely, bettors want no part of teams that weren't good enough to earn a postseason spot, especially when they covered the spread in less than 50% of their games.
Contrarian bettors understand that a full NFL offseason of the draft, free agency, player development and coaching changes means the upcoming season will be vastly different than last year and will take full advantage of the value this creates in the Week 1 betting market.
Week 1 system matches
Chicago Bears (+7) vs. Atlanta Falcons
We're hitting the ground running as contrarian bettors with our first play of the season. The Falcons were a couple of questionable play calls (run the ball!) from winning the Super Bowl last year, and they open their season against the Bears, a team that managed only three wins in 2016.
With a paltry 22 percent of spread bets taking the Bears, it's clear that public bettors want no part of Chicago in this matchup. At the time of publication, only the 49ers (receiving 20 percent against the Panthers) are a less popular public side.
This is a classic contrarian matchup, and with the public all over the Falcons, we'll zag and take Chicago as 7-point home underdogs.
The pick: Bears +7
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) at Houston Texans
One of the biggest storylines this offseason was the performance (or lack thereof) of Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles and whether he'd lose the Week 1 starting job to backup Chad Henne. Bortles held on to the job, for now, but this soap opera has certainly influenced bettors who are all over Houston in Week 1.
73 percent of spread bettors have more confidence laying 5.5 points with someone named Tom Savage than I do, making this another solid contrarian value based on nothing more than offseason drama.
The pick: Jaguars +5.5
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at Detroit Lions
This matchup is a rare situation where our contrarian betting system finds itself on the same side of public bettors. The action isn't overwhelmingly one-sided, but Arizona is receiving 62 percent of spread bets as 1.5-point road favorites.
Backed by this week's system results, we still believe this is a good opportunity to back a talented team that underperformed in 2016.
The pick: Cardinals -1.5
Tennessee Titans (-2) vs. Oakland Raiders
Oakland is a trendy pick among NFL analysts as a team who can possibly unseat New England atop the AFC. This storyline has had an effect on public bettors with 62 percent of spread tickets taking the Raiders.
Interestingly, this line opened with Oakland as small favorites, and even with the majority of public action, the line has moved in the opposite direction to Tennessee -2. This type of line movement, also known as "reverse line movement," is an indicator that sharp money has come down on one side of a game.
The public is overvaluing Oakland, and sharps have jumped on Tennessee, making Titans -2 a nice opportunity to fade the public while also following professional action.
The pick: Titans -2
Cleveland Browns (+8.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Following a 1-15 campaign with a rookie starter under center, it's not surprising to see public bettors avoiding Cleveland in their Week 1 matchup against Pittsburgh. Seventy percent of spread bets are on the Steelers, and don't be shocked to see that number climb as more recreational money hits the market this week and over the weekend.
This certainly qualifies as an ugly play, but there is data pointing towards the Browns as a side offering value. For those still reluctant, our recommendation is to shop for the best line as other market-setting sportsbooks are offering Cleveland +9, or even wait until the weekend to see if more Pittsburgh money shows up and pushes this line even higher.
The pick: Browns +8.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
PJ Walsh
ESPN INSIDER
9/6/17
The 2017 NFL season is set to kickoff on Thursday with the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to New England to take on the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots. While Week 1 doesn't get rolling until the first week of September, the frenetic appetite of NFL fans inspires the mainstream sports media to pump out 24/7 NFL content months in advance. Fantasy football has only amplified this further, as fans are digging for more content, statistics, trends and edges all summer long to win annual bragging rights among their league mates.
In fact, sportsbooks have capitalized on the ever-increasing desire for NFL coverage by releasing lines for Week 1 games months in advance. Market-setting sportsbooks like Westgate and Bookmaker opened their numbers way back in April, giving bettors four and a half months to analyze Week 1 lines.
However, a very small percentage of the information released over that span is actually meaningful, leading to public bettors overanalyzing mainstream media reports, coach speak and preseason game results. For the purpose of this column, we define public bettors as recreational bettors who place their wagers based on their gut instincts and often overreact to the most recent results and data. Public bettors historically bet for "action" because they'll be watching a game instead of betting value, which is a key difference between recreational players and professional bettors.
Understanding that the combination of a long offseason of NFL content/analysis and the tendency of public bettors to overvalue last season's records allows contrarian bettors to pin down valuable betting opportunities being overlooked by average NFL bettors. With this in mind, I turned to our Bet Labs sports betting analysis software and created a Week 1 NFL betting system that has returned a profit of plus-17.85 units and an ROI (return on investment) of +35.7 percent and covers the spread by an average of 4.82 points since the start of the 2005 season.
To start, I looked at how teams that didn't make the playoffs performed against teams that did. From a high level, it's reasonable to assume that bettors will overvalue last year's playoffs teams, especially when playing a "bad" team (defined by not making the playoffs) from last year. This simple concept returned an ATS (against the spread) win rate of 59.8 percent, plus-12.61 units won and an ROI of 15.4 percent since 2005.
Expanding on the theory that public bettors will fade (or bet against) poor teams from the previous season, I then filtered down our non-playoff teams even further by including only those that finished the year with an ATS record of below 50 percent. This ensures that we're isolating teams that were not profitable for bettors, providing even more reason for public bettors to avoid them in Week 1.
Why does this work?
I touched on it a bit in the introduction, but the saturation of NFL content and analysis during the summer months drives bettors to overvalue last year's "good" teams that made the playoffs. Conversely, bettors want no part of teams that weren't good enough to earn a postseason spot, especially when they covered the spread in less than 50% of their games.
Contrarian bettors understand that a full NFL offseason of the draft, free agency, player development and coaching changes means the upcoming season will be vastly different than last year and will take full advantage of the value this creates in the Week 1 betting market.
Week 1 system matches
Chicago Bears (+7) vs. Atlanta Falcons
We're hitting the ground running as contrarian bettors with our first play of the season. The Falcons were a couple of questionable play calls (run the ball!) from winning the Super Bowl last year, and they open their season against the Bears, a team that managed only three wins in 2016.
With a paltry 22 percent of spread bets taking the Bears, it's clear that public bettors want no part of Chicago in this matchup. At the time of publication, only the 49ers (receiving 20 percent against the Panthers) are a less popular public side.
This is a classic contrarian matchup, and with the public all over the Falcons, we'll zag and take Chicago as 7-point home underdogs.
The pick: Bears +7
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) at Houston Texans
One of the biggest storylines this offseason was the performance (or lack thereof) of Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles and whether he'd lose the Week 1 starting job to backup Chad Henne. Bortles held on to the job, for now, but this soap opera has certainly influenced bettors who are all over Houston in Week 1.
73 percent of spread bettors have more confidence laying 5.5 points with someone named Tom Savage than I do, making this another solid contrarian value based on nothing more than offseason drama.
The pick: Jaguars +5.5
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at Detroit Lions
This matchup is a rare situation where our contrarian betting system finds itself on the same side of public bettors. The action isn't overwhelmingly one-sided, but Arizona is receiving 62 percent of spread bets as 1.5-point road favorites.
Backed by this week's system results, we still believe this is a good opportunity to back a talented team that underperformed in 2016.
The pick: Cardinals -1.5
Tennessee Titans (-2) vs. Oakland Raiders
Oakland is a trendy pick among NFL analysts as a team who can possibly unseat New England atop the AFC. This storyline has had an effect on public bettors with 62 percent of spread tickets taking the Raiders.
Interestingly, this line opened with Oakland as small favorites, and even with the majority of public action, the line has moved in the opposite direction to Tennessee -2. This type of line movement, also known as "reverse line movement," is an indicator that sharp money has come down on one side of a game.
The public is overvaluing Oakland, and sharps have jumped on Tennessee, making Titans -2 a nice opportunity to fade the public while also following professional action.
The pick: Titans -2
Cleveland Browns (+8.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Following a 1-15 campaign with a rookie starter under center, it's not surprising to see public bettors avoiding Cleveland in their Week 1 matchup against Pittsburgh. Seventy percent of spread bets are on the Steelers, and don't be shocked to see that number climb as more recreational money hits the market this week and over the weekend.
This certainly qualifies as an ugly play, but there is data pointing towards the Browns as a side offering value. For those still reluctant, our recommendation is to shop for the best line as other market-setting sportsbooks are offering Cleveland +9, or even wait until the weekend to see if more Pittsburgh money shows up and pushes this line even higher.
The pick: Browns +8.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
