From my friend Nick:toast:
7/11/2009
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
CONTINUING OUR LOOK AT
REGULAR SEASON WINS WITH THE NFC
Earlier this week, I posted the Regular Season Win totals for AFC teams that are available right now in Las Vegas and offshore. As promised, I'm back today to look at the NFC.
The NFC has a very interesting cluster of divisions that can create some illusions for handicappers. The East division is very tough, with four good teams who will be beating up on each other all year. The South is very close, though Tampa Bay is expected to fall off the pace in 2009. That's creates a condensed set of numbers where everyone's projected in the 8-10 range even though they're expected to be very good.
The North and West divisions are weaker, but also competitive. As a result, THOSE teams are largely projected in the same range. If you had matchups on neutral fields between the divisions (say...the whole NFC East playing the whole NFC North), the East teams would be favored across the board. Yet, the nature of their schedule shapes make the league seem more condensed than that.
Oh, within the NFC this year, the East plays the South! So, the best divisions will play each other, making it even tougher for the 'true' powers of the conference to make a run at 11 or 12 victories. Last season only the Giants, Carolina, and Atlanta made it as high as 11 wins, and the best divisions weren't playing each other.
With that in mind, let's run through the four remaining divisions in our trip across the league this week...
NFC EAST
NY Giants: 9.5 or 10
Philadelphia: 9.5 or 10
Dallas: 9 or 9.5
Washington: 8 or 8.5
Nobody was under .500 last year in this group, and oddsmakers have priced everyone within striking distance of that range again in 2009. What a great division! The Giants have won a recent Super Bowl. Philadelphia just missed last year. Dallas is usually seen as one of the best teams in the conference even though it's been awhile since they played to that level. Washington should get more respect from the national media given how well they've held up their end of the bargain in this very tough group.
Most of the sharp action I've seen has been on the Giants Under 10, and Philadelphia Over 9.5. The 'value of a win' is so high within the likely strike zone that many sharps are just betting toward the whole number with those teams.
I was also seeing pessimism about Washington at 8.5. The vigorish is high on the Under at stores that are still carrying that number.
It's too bad so many good teams are clustered in two divisions. In my view that helped set the stage for Arizona's surprising run last year. They were so much fresher in January because they hadn't played grueling divisional wars throughout the season.
NFC NORTH
Chicago: 8.5 or 9
Minnesota: 8.5
Green Bay: 8.5
Detroit: 4.5
The quality may not be here, but we're still looking at a very interesting race. Chicago got bet by sharps after they acquired Jay Cutler from Denver. The Bears were always seen as 'being a quarterback away' from having a top notch team. Cutler has a great arm (if not great composure and maturity), and was seen as an upgrade. There hasn't been much betting action on these teams other than the Bears thus far.
Detroit's an interesting case because they were winless last year and have cleaned house. An 'expansion' team would have trouble reaching 5 wins. Will Detroit be an expansion caliber team this year? Maybe with the dead weight gone from management the team will bounce back quicker than expected.
Oh, I thought it worth noting that none of these teams had a winning record against the spread last year. Minnesota was 10-6 straight up but 6-10 ATS. It's possible to better expectations against season win totals while failing to even reach them on a game by game basis.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans: 9
Carolina: 8.5
Atlanta: 8.5
Tampa Bay: 6.5
Conversely, nobody in the NFC South had a losing record against the spread last year! This stuff can get tricky. If you think a team is going to be underrated, so you bet their season win total Over, or do you bet them against the weekly numbers every Sunday? To each his own. To me, they're different issues. One takes a big picture look at overall potential. The other can be influenced by injuries, letdowns, lookaheads, and a tendency for the public to ignore developments during the regular season.
Did you realize that New Orleans finished last in 2008? Now they're projected to finish first! This is more a case of oddsmakers knowing that the public would probably try to bet New Orleans. Drew Brees gets a lot of hype because of his big passing numbers. And, the Saints were 10-5-1 ATS last season. Gamblers have a good taste in their mouth for the Saints, so their total is a bit higher than the others.
Tampa Bay made a coaching change, and has the look of a team in turmoil. In a tough division, that can turn 3-3 into 0-6 at the drop of a hat. Throw in those matchups against the NFC East, and you can see why the Bucs fell so far. They were 9-7 last year, but are now seen as a potential 6-10 or 7-9 type team. Sharps were looking to bet Under, but oddsmakers nullified that to a large degree by posting such a low total.
NFC WEST
Arizona: 8.5
Seattle: 8.5
San Francisco: 7 or 7.5
St. Louis: 5.5 or 6
San Francisco was hit hard at Over 7 by sharps who saw that number. The vigorish is high if you still see that number posted anywhere. Sharps have a lot of respect for what Mike Singletary brought to the table in the weak West. Toughness is just want was needed to make the 49ers competitive again.
Seattle is an interesting case. They don't have Mike Holmgren any more as head coach. Jim Mora is the replacement. He's not seen as a great coach...but this isn't a great division either! Seattle will be healthy this year, meaning there's a good chance they get back in the playoff mix. Oddsmakers anticipated that to a degree with a number like 8.5. Remember the Seahawks were just 4-12 last year because of all the injuries.
Can Arizona make another run at history? I can't say that people are lined up to bet Over 8.5, which is odd for a Super Bowl team! It's true that last year was a bit flukey. But, Kurt Warner is a great quarterback when he has time. Given the friendlier rules for offensive lineman last year in the area of holding, Warner is fully capable of having another big season if he stays healthy. You might be surprised that the prior Super Bowl teams were actually bargains for bettors last season. The Giants passed their season win total with a 12-4 mark, and were also a whopping 12-4 against the number (best in the league along with Tennessee). New England was 11-5 even with Tom Brady missing the year, and went 9-7 ATS. Maybe Arizona will be the steal of the year in 2009!
Some quick notes:
*Three NFC teams were 5-11 or worse last year, yet only Detroit is priced at a number of five or lower this year. If your analysis sees a potential disaster coming for one or more franchises, you may have a pretty good sized margin for error.
*Three NFC teams were 11-5 or better last year, but only one team is priced at 10 wins or more right now. Both of those numbers are much lower than in the AFC. The NFC is seen as a much deeper conference where it's difficult to post a really great record.
*Biggest differences between 2008 final record and 2009 market projection:
Detroit: 4.5 games (an 0-16 team with a projection of 4.5)
Carolina: 3.5 games (a 12-4 team with an 8.5 projection)
Seattle: 3.5 games (a 4-12 team with a 7.5 projection)
St. Louis: 3.5 games (a 2-14 team with a 5.5 projection)
We've now gone through regular season win totals for all 32 teams, all eight divisions in the NFL. Exhibition football is about a month away. I know we're all looking forward to that! Nothing beats the excitement around Las Vegas and Reno when a new football season is about to start.
7/11/2009
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
CONTINUING OUR LOOK AT
REGULAR SEASON WINS WITH THE NFC
Earlier this week, I posted the Regular Season Win totals for AFC teams that are available right now in Las Vegas and offshore. As promised, I'm back today to look at the NFC.
The NFC has a very interesting cluster of divisions that can create some illusions for handicappers. The East division is very tough, with four good teams who will be beating up on each other all year. The South is very close, though Tampa Bay is expected to fall off the pace in 2009. That's creates a condensed set of numbers where everyone's projected in the 8-10 range even though they're expected to be very good.
The North and West divisions are weaker, but also competitive. As a result, THOSE teams are largely projected in the same range. If you had matchups on neutral fields between the divisions (say...the whole NFC East playing the whole NFC North), the East teams would be favored across the board. Yet, the nature of their schedule shapes make the league seem more condensed than that.
Oh, within the NFC this year, the East plays the South! So, the best divisions will play each other, making it even tougher for the 'true' powers of the conference to make a run at 11 or 12 victories. Last season only the Giants, Carolina, and Atlanta made it as high as 11 wins, and the best divisions weren't playing each other.
With that in mind, let's run through the four remaining divisions in our trip across the league this week...
NFC EAST
NY Giants: 9.5 or 10
Philadelphia: 9.5 or 10
Dallas: 9 or 9.5
Washington: 8 or 8.5
Nobody was under .500 last year in this group, and oddsmakers have priced everyone within striking distance of that range again in 2009. What a great division! The Giants have won a recent Super Bowl. Philadelphia just missed last year. Dallas is usually seen as one of the best teams in the conference even though it's been awhile since they played to that level. Washington should get more respect from the national media given how well they've held up their end of the bargain in this very tough group.
Most of the sharp action I've seen has been on the Giants Under 10, and Philadelphia Over 9.5. The 'value of a win' is so high within the likely strike zone that many sharps are just betting toward the whole number with those teams.
I was also seeing pessimism about Washington at 8.5. The vigorish is high on the Under at stores that are still carrying that number.
It's too bad so many good teams are clustered in two divisions. In my view that helped set the stage for Arizona's surprising run last year. They were so much fresher in January because they hadn't played grueling divisional wars throughout the season.
NFC NORTH
Chicago: 8.5 or 9
Minnesota: 8.5
Green Bay: 8.5
Detroit: 4.5
The quality may not be here, but we're still looking at a very interesting race. Chicago got bet by sharps after they acquired Jay Cutler from Denver. The Bears were always seen as 'being a quarterback away' from having a top notch team. Cutler has a great arm (if not great composure and maturity), and was seen as an upgrade. There hasn't been much betting action on these teams other than the Bears thus far.
Detroit's an interesting case because they were winless last year and have cleaned house. An 'expansion' team would have trouble reaching 5 wins. Will Detroit be an expansion caliber team this year? Maybe with the dead weight gone from management the team will bounce back quicker than expected.
Oh, I thought it worth noting that none of these teams had a winning record against the spread last year. Minnesota was 10-6 straight up but 6-10 ATS. It's possible to better expectations against season win totals while failing to even reach them on a game by game basis.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans: 9
Carolina: 8.5
Atlanta: 8.5
Tampa Bay: 6.5
Conversely, nobody in the NFC South had a losing record against the spread last year! This stuff can get tricky. If you think a team is going to be underrated, so you bet their season win total Over, or do you bet them against the weekly numbers every Sunday? To each his own. To me, they're different issues. One takes a big picture look at overall potential. The other can be influenced by injuries, letdowns, lookaheads, and a tendency for the public to ignore developments during the regular season.
Did you realize that New Orleans finished last in 2008? Now they're projected to finish first! This is more a case of oddsmakers knowing that the public would probably try to bet New Orleans. Drew Brees gets a lot of hype because of his big passing numbers. And, the Saints were 10-5-1 ATS last season. Gamblers have a good taste in their mouth for the Saints, so their total is a bit higher than the others.
Tampa Bay made a coaching change, and has the look of a team in turmoil. In a tough division, that can turn 3-3 into 0-6 at the drop of a hat. Throw in those matchups against the NFC East, and you can see why the Bucs fell so far. They were 9-7 last year, but are now seen as a potential 6-10 or 7-9 type team. Sharps were looking to bet Under, but oddsmakers nullified that to a large degree by posting such a low total.
NFC WEST
Arizona: 8.5
Seattle: 8.5
San Francisco: 7 or 7.5
St. Louis: 5.5 or 6
San Francisco was hit hard at Over 7 by sharps who saw that number. The vigorish is high if you still see that number posted anywhere. Sharps have a lot of respect for what Mike Singletary brought to the table in the weak West. Toughness is just want was needed to make the 49ers competitive again.
Seattle is an interesting case. They don't have Mike Holmgren any more as head coach. Jim Mora is the replacement. He's not seen as a great coach...but this isn't a great division either! Seattle will be healthy this year, meaning there's a good chance they get back in the playoff mix. Oddsmakers anticipated that to a degree with a number like 8.5. Remember the Seahawks were just 4-12 last year because of all the injuries.
Can Arizona make another run at history? I can't say that people are lined up to bet Over 8.5, which is odd for a Super Bowl team! It's true that last year was a bit flukey. But, Kurt Warner is a great quarterback when he has time. Given the friendlier rules for offensive lineman last year in the area of holding, Warner is fully capable of having another big season if he stays healthy. You might be surprised that the prior Super Bowl teams were actually bargains for bettors last season. The Giants passed their season win total with a 12-4 mark, and were also a whopping 12-4 against the number (best in the league along with Tennessee). New England was 11-5 even with Tom Brady missing the year, and went 9-7 ATS. Maybe Arizona will be the steal of the year in 2009!
Some quick notes:
*Three NFC teams were 5-11 or worse last year, yet only Detroit is priced at a number of five or lower this year. If your analysis sees a potential disaster coming for one or more franchises, you may have a pretty good sized margin for error.
*Three NFC teams were 11-5 or better last year, but only one team is priced at 10 wins or more right now. Both of those numbers are much lower than in the AFC. The NFC is seen as a much deeper conference where it's difficult to post a really great record.
*Biggest differences between 2008 final record and 2009 market projection:
Detroit: 4.5 games (an 0-16 team with a projection of 4.5)
Carolina: 3.5 games (a 12-4 team with an 8.5 projection)
Seattle: 3.5 games (a 4-12 team with a 7.5 projection)
St. Louis: 3.5 games (a 2-14 team with a 5.5 projection)
We've now gone through regular season win totals for all 32 teams, all eight divisions in the NFL. Exhibition football is about a month away. I know we're all looking forward to that! Nothing beats the excitement around Las Vegas and Reno when a new football season is about to start.
