Conference Champ bets: NE at -160 to win AFC & NYG at 11:1 to win NFC

[i'mshockedshocked]

NE -160

I normally do not like taking odds on favorties in the futures market, but I am making an exception here. I mean, NE is going to be favored by 2 TDs over the Oak/ Hous winner, and then will have to face either Pitt or KC. The fact that Pitt and KC will knock the other off for NE so it doesnt have to face both of these teams is huge. When the AFC championship game is either of those at NE, the line will be something like NE -6 with a money line of NE -250 or higher, so it seems to be like NE -160 to win the AFC is a nice deal.


NYG at 11:1 to win NFC


I think this is a great bet. NYG have the best defense heading into the playoffs. Eli can turn hot any time. They have already beaten the favorites, Dallas, twice. Seattle isnt operating on all cylinders, Atlanta has no defense, and those types of teams rarely make it to the SB. So to me, if NYG can get past Rodgers this weekend, they are set up well to go all the way. Of course they will have to beat Dallas for the third time and then face Atlanta probably, but 11:1 are normally odds I see for teams that I can't really see in the SB, while this is not the case with the NYG.

 

[degen]

You would make more by taking the giants on the moneyline and pressing it for 3 consecutive games. You would be getting at least 15:1 maybe 20:1.

 

[dsong]

I would recommend against betting into 20+% juice.

 

[i'mshockedshocked]

Degen,


Thanks for the reply. I think you're doing the math for 4 games instead of 3, which would include winning the SB. Right now NYG are +188 on the money line at GB. If they win, they play at DALL and I am thinking the line will be Dallas -6 at the most which would be a money line of maybe +250 for NYG. Finally they would play at Atlanta if Atlanta beats Seattle. The line on that would be no more, I think, than Atlanta -4.5, much like with GB, so again we would have NYG at +188. Do that math, starting with $100 X 1.88X 2.50 X 1.88= $890. It would only be $1500 to $2000 if NYG had to win a 4th game, i.e., win SB, but the 11:1 odds are just to win NFC, not the SB, and are better than the 9:1 odds you would get with pressing the money line 3 Xs.

Of course if I am way off regarding wht the lines are , e.g, Dallas by 9 or something, then the above math would not apply. But based on my expected lines as stated above , the 11:1 is better than pressing.

 

[degen]

You forgot to add in the original risk amount. If you bet $100 on the Giants +188 against the Packers, you will win $188. Now you put $288 (100+188) on the Giants to beat the Cowboys @ +188. That grosses $829 (288+541). And then you put the $829 to beat the Falcons @ +150. That will get you over the $2000 mark.

 

[i'mshockedshocked]

Degen,

Thanks for the feedback. You're right. I typically play the futures during the middle/ late of the season, and for ex have NYG at 25:1 to win SB, and there is no pressing alternative in that case. But I guess that once it gets to post season, it is always going to be better to press than take futures, unless the team wins in such an impressive fashion in the wild card game that the line dramatically changes in their direction on the next game(s). Like if after destroying GB say 30-10, the NYG would go to Dallas at PK instead and would actually be favored at Atlanta. But without major line moves in the direction of your team, it seems like it is not worthwhile to take futures vs pressing.

 

[i'mshockedshocked]

Degen,

Actually, I think I was being too general in the last comment about it probably always being good to press in post season vs futures. Of course, you were pointing out the bad math for NYG bet, and you were right with that one. But For NE, I think they will be a 14 point favorite over the Hous Oak winner, which would be a money line of -1000. So you bet $100 and just win $10, so you have $110. Then if NE is -6 vs KC or Pitt, that is -260 so the $110 you lay gets you just $42, so now you have $152. So in the end if you press on NE you're likely to win just $52 for your $100, i.e, -195, whereas with the futures bet, you are able to lay at only -160 rather than -200. So it seems like the NE futures bet is better than pressing. It probably works so that with long odds, like with the NYG, they always rip you off in futures, but not necessarily with short odds plays like NE.

 

[TomandJerry]

You forgot to add in the original risk amount. If you bet $100 on the Giants +188 against the Packers, you will win $188. Now you put $288 (100+188) on the Giants to beat the Cowboys @ +188. That grosses $829 (288+541). And then you put the $829 to beat the Falcons @ +150. That will get you over the $2000 mark.

this

 

[dsong]

5dimes has Atlanta to win the Super Bowl at +860; Kansas City to win AFC at +425; Patriots to win Super Bowl at +170. Those are the kind of numbers you have a chance to beat.

 

[dsong]

I think New England has ~61% chance of winning AFC and NY Giants has ~5% chance of winning NFC. So you're getting close to fair value on the Patriots and maybe 55 cents on the dollar on the Giants.

Why not take a stab on the Falcons instead? They only have to win 2 games instead of 3 and get at least one game at home.

 

[i'mshockedshocked]

Dsong,

If I didnt already have NYG, I agree that Atlanta is the best risk reward bet in the NFC, but if you bet more than one of the teams, you really dilute your chances of coming out again considering the vig, as you pointed out earlier. I just cant remember the last time a team went to the SB with a poor defense

 

[TomandJerry]

someone please help me calculate the odd that PIT win AFC, right now my book has +392

think bet $200 on next game vs MIA @ -515 and next game and the game after will be more than that +392 odd

 

[i'mshockedshocked]

T&J,

The futures ripoff vs the pressed bet for Pitt is even worse than the ripoff on the NYG. If you start with $100, and you bet the ML on the wild card gm vs Miami at -515, you win $20. Then you take that $120 you have and bet on Pitt at KC at a likely line of KC-2 or ML of Pitt +120, to win $144. Then you take that $120+$144=$264 and bet it on Pitt at NE at a likely line of NE-7 or ML of +280 on Pitt to win $739. you then win up with $739+$264= $1003. So if you press bet you are getting 9:1 odds instead of the terrible odds of just +392!! This will be the last time I make the mistake of betting on post season futures on long odds teams...it is always a ripoff. Short odds teams, where there is less room for the bookie to maneuver to steal your money, like with NE this year, are better candidates for post season futures betting.

 

[TomandJerry]

thank shocked shocked

 

[dsong]

At the odds I'm seeing it's Falcons or bust.

Kansas City, maybe.

 

[mickj]

I think New England has ~61% chance of winning AFC and NY Giants has ~5% chance of winning NFC. So you're getting close to fair value on the Patriots and maybe 55 cents on the dollar on the Giants.

Could you post all teams?

 

[dsong]

I think New England has ~61% chance of winning AFC and NY Giants has ~5% chance of winning NFC. So you're getting close to fair value on the Patriots and maybe 55 cents on the dollar on the Giants.

Could you post all teams?

I've posted a complete analysis in the thread, "Early Wildcard Lines".

 

[theerodfather]

Kc chiefs will kick assssssss..

Theerodfather

 

[PatsFanatic]

I feel like KC had their chance to knock off NE in Foxboro last year. NE wasn't nearly as good as they are this year.
Almost feels like those Indy teams trying to come to Foxboro and win in January, never happened, and they had a top notch QB.