Conference by Conference my best ATS teams of 2009

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Feel free to chime in with opinions. This is just a preliminary forecast. Teams could be added or subracted to this list by September. Keep this in mind with these teams: If I leave somebody off it's not because I don't think they'll have a winning season or a good year. It's because I simply don't think they'll do well against the spread. Big difference. Here are my personal favorites to be the moneymakers from each conference. The standard I'm setting for each of these teams is getting to at least 8 wins ATS for the season.

Big 12

Kansas
Texas A&M

Big 10

Michigan St.

SEC

Arkansas
Tennessee


ACC

Miami
Florida St.

Pac-10

Oregon
Stanford

Big East

Syracuse


I'm still doing some studying on the non-BCS conferences. I list them later.
 

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May and June is my months to start accumulating all the info I have stored up and others have added, so for now I'll thank you for posting some teams for me to think about. I'm wondering just off the cuff how good of value we will get with all the hype that tennessee is getting in the preseason.

I also have to do some research on Texas A&M because I wonder if they are still a year early from being a cash cow for us.

Nevertheless, I thank you for posting your thoughts, GS, and you will be giving me something to research and mull over . . . . .
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In non BCS in would add So. Miss because they have a doable schedule. I also like Illinois in the Big 10. The Big 10 may be all over the place this year. I am with you on Kansas all the way.
I notice you left G Tech off. I am of the opinion that their schedule will do them in but I do look for them to knock off North Carolina in a big revenger.

Do you have an opinion on Illinois?
 

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May and June is my months to start accumulating all the info I have stored up and others have added, so for now I'll thank you for posting some teams for me to think about. I'm wondering just off the cuff how good of value we will get with all the hype that tennessee is getting in the preseason.

I also have to do some research on Texas A&M because I wonder if they are still a year early from being a cash cow for us.

Nevertheless, I thank you for posting your thoughts, GS, and you will be giving me something to research and mull over . . . . .
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I'll have a better idea myself by June or July. Like I said these are just preliminary selections. The reason I like Texas A&M is they are a team still flying under the radar. When you combine that with a favorable schedule (7 home games & one neutral site game in Texas) and a second year coach I think this could possibly be the year. I look for their win total to be around 5 or 6. But their ATS to be around 8. You never know about 2010. There could be too high of expectationjs for them and a tougher schedule. I think this could be the year to play them. But I still want to look at them a little further. Especially their offense and if Sherman is going to stick with Jerrod Johnson at QB. You might notice I didn't have Baylor on my list. For two reasons: They might be getting a little too much hype this year after a surprisenly competetive season last year. Plus the system I use throws out teams who got to 8 wins or more ATS the year before and trying to repeat that number the next season. It basically very seldom happens. It's only happend once in the last 2 years. And Baylor got to 8 wins ATS last season, mainly because they were flying under the radar with a new coach. Although I expect them to be a better team. I don't expect the lines Vegas sets to be quite as favorable to them.
 

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In non BCS in would add So. Miss because they have a doable schedule. I also like Illinois in the Big 10. The Big 10 may be all over the place this year. I am with you on Kansas all the way.
I notice you left G Tech off. I am of the opinion that their schedule will do them in but I do look for them to knock off North Carolina in a big revenger.

Do you have an opinion on Illinois?
I left Ga Tech off because my system throws out any team who had 8 or more wins ATS last season. GT had 8. Illinois is a team I'm looking at. But the negative thing that goes against right off the bat is Ron Zook. He has a way of getting outcoached in games he should have won. So I'm a little hesitant here. But Illinois does fit the formula of a team that should improve greatly ATS. Like I said...Zook. North Carolina is still a real possibility to make my list. The only thing holding me back right now is that after last season they might be considered the juggernaut of their conference this year along with VT, and may not get as favorable of lines as we would like to see. But I'm going to wait for the preseason publications to come out. And I'll see how much hype they give them before i decide.
 

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I'll have a better idea myself by June or July. Like I said these are just preliminary selections. The reason I like Texas A&M is they are a team still flying under the radar. When you combine that with a favorable schedule (7 home games & one neutral site game in Texas) and a second year coach I think this could possibly be the year. I look for their win total to be around 5 or 6. But their ATS to be around 8. You never know about 2010. There could be too high of expectationjs for them and a tougher schedule. I think this could be the year to play them. But I still want to look at them a little further. Especially their offense and if Sherman is going to stick with Jerrod Johnson at QB. You might notice I didn't have Baylor on my list. For two reasons: They might be getting a little too much hype this year after a surprisenly competetive season last year. Plus the system I use throws out teams who got to 8 wins or more ATS the year before and trying to repeat that number the next season. It basically very seldom happens. It's only happend once in the last 2 years. And Baylor got to 8 wins ATS last season, mainly because they were flying under the radar with a new coach. Although I expect them to be a better team. I don't expect the lines Vegas sets to be quite as favorable to them.


I understand your reasons for posting who you did and I may be on them myself after I have researched them more fully.

I agree with you on Baylor 100%.
 

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SoonerBS;6681822I'm wondering just off the cuff how good of value we will get with all the hype that tennessee is getting in the preseason. [/quote said:
BS...My thoughts on Tennessee is that despite the hype they should either be catching points in half of their conference games or being only short favorites in the rest. Right now, what will make me decide yes or no on this team is how much their offense progresses from last season. Any kind of improvement and this team will be dangerous. Mainly because of their defense, which should be one of the best in the nation. Despite how poor this team played last season in going 5-7, they did go 6-6 ATS. So there is room for improvement there with almost all of their defense coming back intact.. Just call it a feeling, but I see Kiffin as one of these guys who is going to kick the weaklings while they're down to impress the regents. In other words teams like Ohio and especially Western Kentucky in their first game are probably in for a lickin'.
 

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BS...My thoughts on Tennessee is that despite the hype they should either be catching points in half of their conference games or being only short favorites in the rest. Right now, what will make me decide yes or no on this team is how much their offense progresses from last season. Any kind of improvement and this team will be dangerous. Mainly because of their defense, which should be one of the best in the nation. Despite how poor this team played last season in going 5-7, they did go 6-6 ATS. So there is room for improvement there with almost all of their defense coming back intact.. Just call it a feeling, but I see Kiffin as one of these guys who is going to kick the weaklings while they're down to impress the regents. In other words teams like Ohio and Western Kentucky in their first game are probably in for a lickin'.


Good point . . . . .
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BS...I'll tell what I think could happen with Kiffin. For the most part he's actually inheriting a pretty experienced team this year. Especially on defense.. But I see the same thing happening to him that happened to Charlie Weis in his first year. Weis inherited a very experienced ND team from Willingham and they went 9-2 his first year. And then all of that experience graduated and he fell on his face the next year. And it's taken him 3 years to slowly build back to a winning team. I can see the same thing happeneing to Kiffin in 2010. But I bet they don't give him 5 years like they have Weis. He better produce.
 

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In non BCS in would add So. Miss because they have a doable schedule. I also like Illinois in the Big 10. The Big 10 may be all over the place this year. I am with you on Kansas all the way.
I notice you left G Tech off. I am of the opinion that their schedule will do them in but I do look for them to knock off North Carolina in a big revenger.

Do you have an opinion on Illinois?

Any team that has a two+ season starting QB back has an advantage, especially early in the season. Speaking of Big 10 teams, Michigan will still be horrible. Non-conference is very soft though. Record will be deceiving.
 

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Miami sucks and is so overhyped and overrated this year. They have a starting QB who is in his first year as a full time starter and weighs about 180lbs and will not make it through the year. Both lines suck and you win games on the line. They do have some good RBs and a good LB.
Their biggest weakness is their head coach who is a complete joke. This guy is not even close to being a real D1 head coach. In addition they cant keep coordinators around because they are thrown under the bus because their head coach cant coach and they use the coordinators as scapegoats. Miami's only benefit is that they play in a weak conference but they still wont win it or even be in the ACC champ. game.
 

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Their biggest weakness is their head coach who is a complete joke. This guy is not even close to being a real D1 head coach. In addition they cant keep coordinators around because they are thrown under the bus because their head coach cant coach and they use the coordinators as scapegoats.

Very true.
 

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Miami sucks and is so overhyped and overrated this year. They have a starting QB who is in his first year as a full time starter and weighs about 180lbs and will not make it through the year. Both lines suck and you win games on the line. They do have some good RBs and a good LB.
Their biggest weakness is their head coach who is a complete joke. This guy is not even close to being a real D1 head coach. In addition they cant keep coordinators around because they are thrown under the bus because their head coach cant coach and they use the coordinators as scapegoats. Miami's only benefit is that they play in a weak conference but they still wont win it or even be in the ACC champ. game.
Miami may be getting alot of publicity where you live, but I have heard absolutely nothing about this team on ESPN or otherwise this preseason. So I don't know about the hype part. From everything that I've seen of him, Jacory Harris has more upside than most of the other young QB's in the ACC. And they got rid of OC Nix, who was inexperienced an awful, and brought in Mark Whipple, who is known for for his innovative uptempo offenses and being very good with QB's. As for the lines, last season they had a sophomore and a true freshman on the D-Line that had zero starting experience. And on the other side the O-Line has 2 starters who had a total of 3 starts between them. So expectations shouldn't have been high for this team last year.. Yet they still made a bowl. Despite having Shannon, who I have the same opinion of as you, I think they have a chance to be a moneymaker on the spread. But none of these teams on this list are a for sure until the fall. I may heed your advice and drop them off the list if I see they aren't making progress in the fall practices. Right now, with who they have returning compared to the rest of the ACC, they look like they'll be very competetive in conference.
 

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Miami may be getting alot of publicity where you live, but I have heard absolutely nothing about this team on ESPN or otherwise this preseason. So I don't know about the hype part. From everything that I've seen of him, Jacory Harris has more upside than most of the other young QB's in the ACC. And they got rid of OC Nix, who was inexperienced an awful, and brought in Mark Whipple, who is known for for his innovative uptempo offenses and being very good with QB's. As for the lines, last season they had a sophomore and a true freshman on the D-Line that had zero starting experience. And on the other side the O-Line has 2 starters who had a total of 3 starts between them. So expectations shouldn't have been high for this team last year.. Yet they still made a bowl. Despite having Shannon, who I have the same opinion of as you, I think they have a chance to be a moneymaker on the spread. But none of these teams on this list are a for sure until the fall. I may heed your advice and drop them off the list if I see they aren't making progress in the fall practices. Right now, with who they have returning compared to the rest of the ACC, they look like they'll be very competetive in conference.

College Gridiron 365 has them sitting at 6th as a preseason prediction in the ACC this year. Here is their take on them:


ACC Spring Prospectus: No. 6 Miami

posted by Andrew Carter on May 12, 2009 9:26:07 AM

We're getting into the nitty-gritty now, folks ... Here's our look at No. 6 Miami:

MIAMI HURRICANES
2008 record: 7-6 (4-4); tied for 3rd in the Coastal Divsion

Head coach: Randy Shannon
Record at school: 12-13
Seasons at school: 2

Lettermen returning: 58
Lettermen lost: 22

Offensive starters returning: 8
Defensive starters returning: 8

Biggest loss:
Miami didn’t lose much from 2008 and, in fact, the Hurricanes return the second-most starters in the ACC. Among those gone, though, are two starting offensive linemen (T Chris Rutledge and C Xavier Shannon), as well as QB Robert Marve, who decided to transfer from the program at the end of the season after he split time with Jacory Harris throughout the season.

Most important returnee:
The Hurricanes return pretty much all of their important skill players from a season ago, including Harris, who completed better than 60 percent of his passes for 1,195 yards and 12 touchdowns. But the most important guy coming back is probably RB Graig Cooper, who finished 7th in the ACC with 841 rushing yards. On an offense that at times struggled to find consistency a season ago, Cooper was probably the team’s best option.

Spring standout:
The stars of Miami’s spring weren’t players but instead the two leaders of the Hurricanes’ revamped coaching staff. Shannon during the off-season hired a new offensive coordinator, Mark Whipple, and a new defensive coordinator, John Lovett. As a result, this was a spring, then, in which the new staff spent the bulk of its time implementing new systems and learning what it has to work with. Shannon also singled out Harris as one who particularly came a long ways during spring workouts.

Others to know:
OT Jason Fox, Sr. – With 37 career starts, he’s among the most experienced linemen in the conference.
WR Travis Benjamin, Soph. – Electrifying playmaker is a scoring threat every time he touches the ball.
LB Sean Spence, Soph. – One of four players who was named a freshmen All-American a season ago.

Spring storylines:
The arrival of Whipple and Lovett was by far the biggest storyline of the spring for the Hurricanes who, like Florida State, are attempting to return to national prominence. Whipple was an assistant with the Philadelphia Eagles before joining the Canes’ staff, and Lovett came to Miami from North Carolina. Shannon has described both as high-energy, enthusiastic guys who easily motivate those they coach to play hard for them. Getting accustomed quickly to a new offensive and defensive system was especially important this spring for Miami because there will be no time to waste once the season begins. Miami’s first four games – at Florida State, against Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech and against Oklahoma – are probably the most difficult in the nation.

Miami Coach Randy Shannon:
“John brings a lot of experience in … but also he brings a lot of excitement in. And I think that’s one thing you look at from any coordinator, offensively and defensively. You bring some excitement to the table and players really respond to your excitement and enthusiasm. They’re going to play for you.”

Schedule:
Sept 7: at Florida State
Sept. 17: Georgia Tech
Sept. 26: at Virginia Tech
Oct. 3: Oklahoma
Oct. 17: at UCF
Oct. 24: Clemson
Oct. 31: at Wake Forest
Nov. 7: Virginia
Nov. 14: at North Carolina
Nov. 21: Duke
Nov. 28: at South Florida

Key games:
No, FSU-Miami ain’t what it used to be, but the season-opener for both teams on Sept. 7 is huge for both programs. If Miami loses here, the Hurricanes could easily start the season 0-4 – and how would they respond from that? Conversely, a win against the Seminoles could vault UM back into the national spotlight, depending how it does in its next three games.

Way too early 2009 prediction:
7-5 (4-4)
The Hurricanes are more talented than a typical 7-win team but it’s difficult to predict what kind of toll that brutal opening four-game stretch will take. If the Hurricanes can win two or three of those, they could have a 9- or 10-win season. But it’s just as likely, perhaps more so, that Miami wins just one – or none – of its first four.
 

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That is a brutal beginning to the season with their first 4 games. How would you like to have to face that as a coach?
 

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That is a brutal beginning to the season with their first 4 games. How would you like to have to face that as a coach?
BS...Thanks for the info on Miami. I think that game with FSU is very winnable. Although the winner of that game could jumpstart their season. I think the one advantage that Miami has over FSU is Whipple. FSU won't really know what kind of offense that Miami is going to throw at them. I also like Miami's QB more than FSU's. Like I said, the key for me is the covers, not the wins. I do think that Miami will probably be the dog in each of those first four games. I'm curious to see the Blue Ribbon report when it comes out on Miami. I know that despite the D-Line troubles that was mentioned above that Miami was rated a pretty high #28 in total defense last season. And with 8 starters back they could even improve on that number. I don't know. I'm going to look at this team a little further. But except for the schedule I see more upside than downside.
 

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I think this bears watching as a reminder to those who plan on betting this team. I really like Harris as a QB but with a coach like this I would be nervous. This is perhaps the worst example of clock management that I have EVER seen in college football.

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<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/gXARG1ngzaU&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></object>
 

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I couldn't help but notice a little smile on Tedford's face before the last play with 5 seconds left.

What goes around comes around, eh?
 

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I couldn't help but notice a little smile on Tedford's face before the last play with 5 seconds left.

What goes around comes around, eh?

I am sure that you must be referring to Riley in the end of that OSU game? Brutal.
 

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Ducks

I hope they have a repeat for the OU game this season. I liked hearing that part about the 180+ yard rushing for Cal also.
 

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