Colts @ chargers total

[winbet]

Another Year over and People still think Indianapolis is a high scoring shoot out Team, i'll say it again for next year, The Colts have a system in place that turns a game into 9-10 drives and challenges the opponents to outscore them. They do this by long sustained drives usually ending in a score, 36% of the time to be exact and playing a prevent Defense that also effectively uses up the clock. Although they give the impression of being a soft Defense, they are in fact above normal and rank in the top 5 of red zone defense, so plenty of time to score few points is their mentality.

As luck would have it they have drawn The Chargers, another Team People think are a high scoring Team, but look at who their scoring against and see how they do against the better Teams. The Chargers when given a chance to play their game(which The Colts will let them) also have a clock eating mentality averaging 10.5 drives per game, so one can expect 10 possibly 11 drives in this Game.

As I said in another thread, I do some figures which throw out all the games against inferior Teams, concentrate on Home/Road bias, strength of schedule and Divisional strength. The bottom line is a Total of 43.5 for this game as opposed to the 48.5 if done on overall season stats, obviously recent games against weak opposition has cemented the myth of these Two Teams, sending the Total to 51. It will be interesting to see how high the Books will go on this one but the UNDER is the smart play.

My spread comes out at PICK on this game but my stats do contain a bias to The Chargers so no bet there for me.

Good luck in the coming Weeks and a Happy New Year. :drink:

 

[billbeater]

would you say that both teams have gotten better since they last played, with superchargers showing more improvement ?

what did you see in indy/tenn ? anything notable ?

 

[benny0420]

Seems like a FG game again either way.

 

[winbet]

would you say that both teams have gotten better since they last played, with superchargers showing more improvement ?

what did you see in indy/tenn ? anything notable ?

In theory both have improved but in reality, only from a sub standard position in the Season. I'm not convinced The Chargers are in the same class at this Time but The Colts will let them play their runs up to the red zone, basically my argument is both Teams getting long drives which even at their strike rate falls short of the posted Total. Indy has a slight advantage in the turnover department but neither suggests points will be scored of them. As for the Titans game, like other pointless games, I've completely ignored them.:drink:

 

[I_Need_Money]

would you say that both teams have gotten better since they last played, with superchargers showing more improvement ?

They only played about 5 weeks ago, and since then the Chargers lost to ATL (in SD), and then beat Oak, KC, a reeling TB team, and then Denver.
I'd be hard pressed to say improvement is something I can take away from that schedule. They only played 1 game against a quality opponent, and they lost it, at home.

 

[AcesUp+]

You sold me.

I have one leg of a 10 pt teaser left, and as soon as I saw the total of 49.5 I thought over 39.5 was a lock.

Under 61 looks a whole lot better.

 

[billbeater]

They only played about 5 weeks ago, and since then the Chargers lost to ATL (in SD), and then beat Oak, KC, a reeling TB team, and then Denver.
I'd be hard pressed to say improvement is something I can take away from that schedule. They only played 1 game against a quality opponent, and they lost it, at home.

tell this to the suckers who bet Tampa...... :toast:
chargers are certainly more confident in running their offense, i would call it some swagger

 

[JakeT.]

Excellent points. Well said.

 

[I_Need_Money]

tell this to the suckers who bet Tampa...... :toast:
chargers are certainly more confident in running their offense, i would call it some swagger

I still wouldn't say you can claim the Chargers have shown huge improvement by looking at the games they've played since that 11/23 meeting. Indi's schedule has been weak since then as well, so it's hard to gauge improvement for either based upon their opponents.

You can be as confident as you want running your offense while facing Oakland, KC, Denver.....they are the bottom of the barrel defensively.
While Indi isn't spectacular against the run, their overall defense will provide much stiffer competition.

I'd say their offenses are a wash, and Indi's D gets a slight nod.

 

[shdw01]

this is my favorite play over the weekend....this and the future SB champion miami dolphins

 

[Railbird]

Chargers will get there 30, If the Chargers cover the TE they should win easy

 

[I_Need_Money]

Chargers will get there 30, If the Chargers cover the TE they should win easy

First, it's their.

Second, how do you figure that statement? It's a baseless claim.

They lost to Indi last time they played (in SD), then they lost to another balanced team in Atlanta the very next week (in SD again).
They were an onsides coverage blunder by KC away from being out of the playoffs a couple weeks ago.....and now all of a sudden if they "cover the TE" (which they haven't done all year by the way), then they "win easy"?

It's a nice prediction, it sounds good I guess, but where's the reasoning why?
Looking good the last month against teams like Oakland, KC, Denver is great and all, but come on.
So far it's like I said, a baseless claim.

 

[CrimeTime]

First, it's their.

Second, how do you figure that statement? It's a baseless claim.

They lost to Indi last time they played (in SD), then they lost to another balanced team in Atlanta the very next week (in SD again).
They were an onsides coverage blunder by KC away from being out of the playoffs a couple weeks ago.....and now all of a sudden if they "cover the TE" (which they haven't done all year by the way), then they "win easy"?

It's a nice prediction, it sounds good I guess, but where's the reasoning why?
Looking good the last month against teams like Oakland, KC, Denver is great and all, but come on.
So far it's like I said, a baseless claim.

You say all this stuff about the schedule. What about the fact the Colts were tied with DETROIT in the 4th quarter, and Jax was owning them until they choked. The first matchup between these two teams was dictated by some hugely bad breaks and calls that went against sd. If Rivers doesnt get hit and fumbled going in they win that game...that was 5 weeks ago. The offense is more on fire now than they have ever been and they hung 400 yards of offense on the colts that day

 

[I_Need_Money]

Crime Time, either you're not paying attention, or you're intentionally ignoring what I've already written....or both.

The reason I've mentioned the schedule (which should be obvious with some simple reading comprehension) is because others, including you, are using their last 4-5 games to claim they are an entirely different team.

The offense is more on fire now than they have ever been

Uh well yeah....that's what happens when you face Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver. Little secret for ya....those teams suck, especially on defense.

So when people say man, they've been on fire lately, I must bring up who they've been playing (ie their schedule). I also said that the Colts last few games have also been against not so great competition, so it's hard to say they're much different or better than the last time these two teams played either.

and they hung 400 yards of offense on the colts that day

Uh yeah.....and Indi hung 350 yards of offense on the Chargers that day.....
Which is why neither team is going to:

win easy

Ya hear? That's all I've said.
(Also, no Bob Sanders in that game played on 11/23.....do your homework. Something tells me I should probably explain to you the difference that makes).

I never said Indi was going to win easy....all I've said is:
1- Using SD's last 4-5 games to claim they're on fire offensively is silly
2- That saying either team will "win easy" is plain retarded.
But that's fairly obvious if you take the time to comprehend what's been written.

 

[I_Need_Money]

Fact is Bob Sanders is the only thing keeping me off the Over in this game.

Another thing, update on LT is that he's got strained groin. I don't think I need to mention that he has not looked good this year when not 100%.

 

[krk1030]

LT looked great on Sunday, he finally gets healthy and then is hurt again.

 

[ivan722]

As I said in another thread, I do some figures which throw out all the games against inferior Teams, concentrate on Home/Road bias, strength of schedule and Divisional strength. The bottom line is a Total of 43.5 for this game as opposed to the 48.5 if done on overall season stats, obviously recent games against weak opposition has cemented the myth of these Two Teams, sending the Total to 51. It will be interesting to see how high the Books will go on this one but the UNDER is the smart play.

Bol on your 'under' play in this matchup between the Chargers and Colts.

:lolBIG:

 

[winbet]

Never question Railbird, he spends 4 Hours capping NFL every week. :missingte

Cover the TE, :lol: so what then do you do Coach with Two TEs in the game or when Addai is running wild out of the backfield because the TE has taken Two defenders deep down field? If only games were that simple we would have as much Cash as you. :drink:

 

[Thomas]

Great post winbet, I concur with your findings and it's a pleasure to read a well thought out lucid post like this, there's so few anymore.

 

[winbet]

Thomas,
Thank you and you are right, there isn't enough discussion of any meaning on here anymore, too many one line nonsense by jokers. Good luck in the Playoffs. :drink: