Colorado Avalanche

[VegasVic]

Colorado went 30 games over .500, (52-22), in 2013-14 and had a goal differential of 30. Quick reasoning would suggest they won a gang of 1 goal games. That’s a bunch of fortunate bounces and pucks finding the right hole at the right time. These things have a way of evening out in the parity that is today’s NHL.

We can remember Semyon Varlamov standing on his head numerous times last year. Not surprisingly despite the Avs being 30 games over .500 last year their SOG differential, (-3.2) was atrocious. Worse differential than bottom dwellers Calgary, NY Islanders, and Florida.

Some 2014-15 questions I have with Colorado is.... will Patrick Roy continue to inspire this group or does his act wear ordinary a second time around? Can Varlamov save at a .927 clip again? Can their offense score enough to make up for their defensive liabilities.

I think teams like Dallas and Minnesota will continue to improve this year and take some of those points away from teams like the Avalanche. Colorado could prove to be a +EV fade in 2014-15.

 

[guil0000]

good stuff. I agree

 

[Bushay]

I don't see how Roys influence will wane so quickly. They struggled with that high end talent until he arrived and took them from a worst to first type of season. I think he's just warming up the bus. They played fantastic for the better part of last season then underperformed by getting knocked out in the 1st round. So what did they do in the offseason? They went out and got Iginla and Breire. One looking to complete his scorecard by adding a Stanley Cup, the other, another French-Canadian to join his stable there that's had quite a few solid playoff games under his belt. He may be more important in the room than on the ice. I think the D will be better too.
Roy's a winner man. And if they come out and underperform, we're gonna get that partition pushing Patrick back from last season. He's intense. One thing for sure, if they don't....we'll get some good entertainment throuout the season.

 

[VegasVic]

I understand the Avs are loaded. I’m not saying they don’t make the playoffs. But there is no way I believe they end up with another 52 win season again. They snuck up on people last year. No one takes them lightly this year. The 45 wins, (under -130), 5dimes is offering is much closer to reality. Even that might be hard. Regardless of their loaded roster they stayed mainly healthy last year excluding Tanguay missing 66 games and Duchene late in the year. Can’t handicap injuries but you’d think they might not be so fortunate again.

Substituting Iginla and Briere for Stastny and Parenteau is not a upgrade.

Don’t forget they went from 39 points in 2012-13 to 112 last year. Quite a large jump and considering the talent of the Western Conference I say there is a regression for Colorado.

 

[VegasVic]

note:

Colorado 39 points in 48 games, (2012-13). On pace for 67.

 

[Bushay]

Yea, I hated to see Stastny go. But let's face it, he is on the decline. Iginla too, but he's coming in fresh. And Roy said PA was moved because he wasn't going to be able to crack his top 6. Don't believe they will have the same reg season as last either, but come playoff time, I think they're better prepared. Varlamov the key. He played out of his mind early and it set the tone. If he starts out again in the same fashion, they can play tit for tat with the top teams in the West all season long.

 

[AdamINC]

interesting read on Roy's coaching style

http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/592457

 

[Feddz]

http://www.tsn.ca/yost-a-mountain-of-statistical-challenges-for-avalanche-1.97188

I think the Avs will make the playoffs this year, but I also think it's going to be a sweat...

 

[VegasVic]

But what's most troubling about what Colorado did last season can be seen in two numbers, which indicate that its 2013-14 success simply cannot be replicated.

The first of which is its PDO, a statistic that combines a team's save percentage with its shooting percentage and, at its most basic definition, quantifies the level of a team's luck. Colorado had the third-highest PDO in hockey a year ago, on the strength of the second-highest shooting percentage in the league. Luck is a hard concept to quantify in hockey, but converting on shots at an extremely high rate while simultaneously earning an extremely high save percentage from your goaltender is generally something that doesn't repeat season to season.

If you're looking for a comparable situation, the Toronto Maple Leafs posted similar splits to the Avalanche during the lockout-shortened 2013 season. Toronto had the highest PDO in the league that year, with the worst Corsi and second-worst overall Fenwick numbers in all of hockey. After making the playoffs in that statistical anomaly of a half-season, Toronto missed out on the postseason last year.

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/9/...che-projection-outlook-season-preview-2014-15

The above article offers good reasoning, by using advanced stats, to support what I’ve already deducted in comparing the Avs goal differential to win percentage of last year and simply watching their games. No matter how you slice it Colorado had a very lucky season last year. As is the case with their comparison of the Toronto Maple Leafs, luck tends to run in streaks. We, as gamblers, already know that.

 

[VegasVic]

http://www.tsn.ca/yost-a-mountain-of-statistical-challenges-for-avalanche-1.97188

I think the Avs will make the playoffs this year, but I also think it's going to be a sweat...

“Not only are those percentages running against the Avs but they also go into the next season missing their two best puck possession forwards from last season, with Paul Stastney going to St. Louis and P.A. Parenteau traded to Montreal”


Very nice article using some sound logic. Again based on advanced analytics and above my ability to fully comprehend. However I still know if it looks like a duck, it is a duck.

 

[VegasVic]

The Wild outworked the Avalanche and skated circles around them all night.

The Avalanche hardly looked like a team that won 52 games last season and claimed the Central Division title before falling to the Wild in the playoffs. They were shut out once in the regular season last year, losing 2-0 to Boston at home in the 71st game.

The Avalanche's top six forwards combined for four shots.

The Wild outshot the Avalanche 48-16 for the game and a whopping 78-29 including blocked and missed shots. Minnesota's 48 shots were a franchise record.

The Avalanche had four power plays and didn't register a shot on goal on any of them.
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Rick-Sadowski/Downright-ugly-opener/188/62939

Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

 

[Slickwitdadick]

the avs looked exactly like they looked in the playoffs last year vs minny while on the road

minny is my sleeper team this year (if i can call them that) only concern is goaltending. still took over 94.5 pts prop for the season

like you mentioned the fancy stats guys expect big regression from the avs this year and they are usually spot on with things like this. every leafs collapse has been predicted by them

so glad i got granlund on my fantasy team!