College World Series - National Title Thread

[Boxslayer]

As I mentioned previously, I'm done for the year. Went ice cold 2 days in a row, and lost more than 1/3rd of the winnings. Still went up about 35 units in the short post-season, and I have plays pending. All of my pending plays are against North Carolina and on Oregon State, so I will be hedging. My pending futures:

1. Oregon State to win the National Title +860, +748
2. ACC vs. the Field: Field -155

and

3. Will an ACC Team win the National Title? No -162


On to the series, all insights welcome.



Previous Predictions and Where We Stand
In the beginning of this whole thing I said you needed pitching to get through the brackets, pitching in case you fell into the loser's bracket, and pitching to win the best of 3 Championship Series. I stated the 3 teams with the best pitching STAFFS were Rice, Cal State Fullerton and Oregon State.

The truth is, North Carolina should have been included in that, but weren't because I have followed this Tar-Heel team closely, and I didnt think they had the mental toughness as a staff to get through Omaha.

I faded, faded and faded some more on NC, waiting for that UNC collpase and they havn't shown it yet. In fact, not only have they avoided this total mental breakdown, they have shown confidence.


Hot Baseball
Both teams are hot, or they wouldn't be here. Both teams have shown flahses of brilliance this post-season. Both teams are oozing with confidence. Both teams are on a roll. All of that gets thrown out the window, and it comes down to who has the better team, and better matchup on each game.


Series: Who Has the Edge?
This series couldn't set up better for UNC in my opinion. Oregon State has fought valiantly out of the loser's bracket. The day off helps them recharge a bit, but it's just the way the rotations are meeting. Oregon State had to blow their ace Nickerson on 2 days rest to get by Rice, while UNC had to the priveledge of bringing in Andrew Miller to close because he would have so much rest before his next start.

The rotation shapes up as follows (these are my projections, unofficial):

______________________________________________________________

Game 1: UNC Ace #6 Overall Pick LHP Andrew Miller
vs.
OSU Friday Night Starter 3rd round Pick RHP Dallas Buck

Advantage: UNC

______________________________________________________________

Game 2: UNC Stop Gap, Herky Jerky Senior Leader RHP Robert Woodard
vs.
OSU Underrated Sunday Night Flame Thrower Mike Stutes

Advantage: EVEN

______________________________________________________________

Game 3: UNC "the other 1st rounder" mental headcase RHP Daniel Bard
vs.
OSU Ace Gutsy 6th rounder RHP Jonah Nickerson

Advantage: OSU

______________________________________________________________



Keys to the series

North Carolina:

1. Don't Beat Yourself.
This UNC team is shaky. I dont say that for my heatlh. Everyone must think I'm nuts because they have played outstanding baseball since making it to Omaha. If this team continues to play error-free, mistake-free, headstrong baseball, I don't see them losing.
2. Damage Control: Stay Away from the Big Run Inning
Oregon State can not outscore this UNC team. UNC needs to prevent the big inning, damage control. Limiting walks, getting critical outs in critical situations. Giving up 1 run here and there will not beat UNC. But if they have a disaster inning, then they can be outscored, their confidence may waver, and disaster may follow.
3. Bullpen Production
After Andrew Miller, I don't see Woodard repeating his performance. And if it gets to a decisive game 3 with Bard, he will feel the pressure. They are going to need good outings from their bullpen in this series.



Oregon State

1. Force a Game 3.
This is obvious or they lose. But what I mean is Oregon State can almost afford to lose game 1. They don't need to sweep to win this thing. If they can force a game 3 with their ace Nickerson vs. headcase Bard, Oregon State will be sitting pretty in that final game.
2. Patience at the Plate
UNC's staff can be erratic at times. And they are very talented. Don't help them out. I would be almost taking a strike early in the game. Make UNC throw strikes and get ahead in the count. Elevate their pitch counts, and get their starters out of the game.
3. Continued Great Pitching
Oregon State held Rice 2 straight games without a run. They only got 3 hits in game 2 vs. Rice and they won. If they pitch like that, nobody can beat them. They can't afford to get into a slugfest, they dont have the bats. They need great pitching, or this thing is over.


Who has the edge overall?

Starting Pitching: Even (Game 1, North Carolina has the edge)
Bullpen: Oregon State
Hitting: North Carolina
Defense: Oregon State
Well-Rested: North Carolina
Tradition: Even

 

[XANDER]

Nice writeup. I have to take UNC because I have thought they were the most complete team here and they have showed it. Beaves pitching could be a problem, but I will take my chances because UNC is hot and they have hit good pitching. They have gotten it done. I didnt' mean to start a pissing war the other night. I do respect your picks and writeups. Look forward to more. I just think the better team wins this and from what i have seen, it is UNC. good luck

 

[Boxslayer]

I hope my posts didnt come off as a pissing war. I was just having a friendly conversation. I single things out that people say, and I respond to them. Hope that doesnt come off as me nit picking and shooting things down.

I like UNC game 1
I am laying off game 2
and if Oregon State pulls out game 2
I like Oregon State Game 3

If the pitching goes as I planned that is.

 

[Boxslayer]

A couple of things to consider today:

UNC has won all of their games with the knockout blow homerun. They need it at Bama to come from behind. They needed it to beat Fullerton both times. They will need it again today. Can UNC put together hit after hit against this OSU Staff to plate runs? Or will they need that knockout blow homerun to plate the runs?

Can they do it off Dallas Buck? Derek-Lowe style sinker ball pitcher, all of his pitches get good sink and good downward action. He may be able to keep UNC in the yard today.

8 HR given up in 120 IP with that sinker.

______________________________________________________________

Everyone has seen the outstanding OSU Pitching Staff, holding RICE to 2 shutout games. Rice isnt some crappy hitting lineup, but OSU made them look that way.

But people might not notice that in the game where OSU eliminated Rice, and shut them down on 2 hits, that OSU didnt fare much better themsevles, managing only 3 hits. Can OSU keep up offensively with UNC?

_____________________________________________________________


Omaha is a typically laid back atmosphere compared to the wild environments these teams face in Super Regionals and Regionals.

Will the National Title game bring back that pressure element. And if it does, it definitely plays into the favor of Oregon State. This is their 2nd year here in a row, they finally look comfortable playing here.

_____________________________________________________________

 

[oldmanTED]

Box:

Didn't Buck pitch the first game in the 11-1 loss to Miami? Plus, didn't the Beavers go with Nickerson on 3 days rest in Game 2 against Rice because of Buck's outing against Miami? Also, I understand he is nursing some sort of injury. Any knowledge of that? BTW, I just noticed your hedging question as I have been paying attention to the World Cup. Tulsa covered the possibilities pretty well, particularly in light of how you feel about today's game.

 

[Boxslayer]

Box:

Didn't Buck pitch the first game in the 11-1 loss to Miami? Plus, didn't the Beavers go with Nickerson on 3 days rest in Game 2 against Rice because of Buck's outing against Miami? Also, I understand he is nursing some sort of injury. Any knowledge of that? BTW, I just noticed your hedging question as I have been paying attention to the World Cup. Tulsa covered the possibilities pretty well, particularly in light of how you feel about today's game.

Buck was the loser in the game vs. Miami. 7 earned runs. Very uncharacteristic of him.

There have been rumors around MLB Draft circling that Buck may be injured and isnt telling anyone because his velocity slipped this year about 3 MPH. It has effected the sink of his pitches in some games, particularly the Miami game. Overall, Buck has been a good big game pitcher for the Beavers, and he has had plenty of rest since his Miami start. He should be good to go tonight.

I'm sure they went to Nickerson vs. Rice for a few reasons: one was maybe they had concern about Buck's outing, maybe he is a slow recoverer from starts, and finally Jonah Nickerson is their ace. He showed that gutsy performance vs. Rice to prove that. Overall, I still think Dallas Buck is a good pitcher. He was taken in the 3rd round of the draft, and he plays defensive back for Oregon State, so this kid is an athlete on the mound. This is important for bunt defense, etc, you dont want some big stiff tumbling off the mound and throwing one into the stands in a critical situation.

Nickerson had some finger blisters, fingernail issues, etc. Not sure how that will effect him for game 3. All depends on how he heals.

Overall, as much as I like North Carolina tonight, they are a mentally weak team. They have yet to show it. But maybe this National Championship atmosphere brings it out of them. I'm scared to hedge with them game 1.

I think I am going to let game 1 play out for tonight. And see where I stand for hedging tomorrow.

 

[oldmanTED]

Box:

Thanks for the response. I'm having a difficult time with this game as I've seen Miller and CS Fullerton did hit him even though the Tarheels won in the 13th inning. I haven't seen Buck and only have his outing against Miami to go by which I didn't view. Didn't realize Nickerson was the ace of the Beaver staff. I assumed it was Buck because he started the first game for Oregon State against Miami. Looking at the total, sounds like if Buck's sinker is working and Miller is sharp and/or the Beavers can't hit him, the score may go Under 9. Still undecided but as always appreciate your insight and hope that you cash your pending tickets.

 

[Boxslayer]

It's probably not fair for me to label Nickerson the ace. It's definitely an Ace 1A, Ace1B scenario. It's like Pedro/Schilling. Are you gonna screw up your rotation for the past 2 years just because Schilling is pitching a little better?

Buck was the Friday starter and ace last year, this year, Nickerson overtook him as the ace in my opinion, but they never flip flopped roles, adn they kept with what worked for them. It's not like Buck had a bad year.

3rd round pick. 12-3, 3.43 ERA, opponents bat .214 off of him, which is lower than Nickerson's .220.

Thats why the start vs. Miami was uncharcteristic of him. I think he had an off night, coupled with running into that red hot Miami lineup that was crushing right handed pitching. Then they faced the big lefty St. Clair, and he shut them down.

The first inning will be huge in this game for both pitchers.

The first inning of those nerves being able to settle into the game. If Buck can go 1-2-3, or even let a harmless base-runner on, it will be a great start for OSU.

Same for Miller and UNC.


Dallas Buck vs. Stanford in Super Regionals

<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace><st1laceName>Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType>State</st1laceType></st1lace> IP H R ER BB SO<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
------------------------------------------------<o></o>
Buck, Dallas W,12-2....... 8.0 8 3 3 2 6<o></o>
Gunderson, Kevin S,17..... 1.0 0 0 0 0 0


Buck outdueled Greg Reynolds in this game, the #2 overall pick in the draft. Miller was #6 overall. That's Buck's style in my opinion. He's not going to shut out UNC, he's going to give up 2-3 runs on a good day. 4 on an average day. And 7 on a terrible day like Miami.

Now we have UNC scoring at least 3.
Can Oregon State match that?

That's the question of the game.

They dont have homerun power. They dont have a lot of good hitting. But they pitch good enough to win every game, and they play solid defense. They turned some fantastic double plays vs. Rice with their backs against the wall. I liked how they responded.

It's all going to come down to nerves. What will Andrew Miller give them? What will the UNC defense give them? Will the UNC pitching staff and defense have one of their breakdowns? Or will they continue to play solid baseball.

If UNC continues to play solid baseball, UNC can't lose this game. If they dont shoot themselves in the foot, they will not lose this game.

But, will they shoot themselves in the foot is the question. They havnt yet. Are they due? Is the National Championship envrionment enough to show their true colors?

Thats my debate for this game as a bettor.

 

[oldmanTED]

After taking all your and Rawpimple's information into consideration and the fact that the line has just recently moved to -180/+170, I've decided to play the total of Under 9. I'll reason that both pitchers will perform plus the players might be a bit anxious the first couple of innings, shortening the game. Small play only on this one. Had a great day in the World Cup, so let's see a game between these two and go from there. Thanks again for all your time and effort. Truly hope you are rewarded for what you provide to the forums.

 

[Boxslayer]

I like the play, and considering Im rooting for the Beavers tonight, the only way they win the game is keeping the score low.

UNC 5-3
or UNC 5-2 are my score predictions.

Any other score predictions out there before game time??

 

[CarolinaKid]

here my opinion 6-2 UNC.......ck

 

[Boxslayer]

I wonder if ESPN reads my posts: uppy:

Harold Reynolds keys to the game:

1) UNC Defense. Its been there achilles heal all year, North Carolina cant afford any errors.

Key 2

2) Pitch Count: Get Andrew Miller's pitch count up and make him throw strikes.


Bwhahahha. Obviously they dont read this thread. But Harold Reynolds and Mike Patrick agree with my keys to the game. ope:

 

[NYReb]

I wonder if ESPN reads my posts: uppy:

Harold Reynolds keys to the game:

1) UNC Defense. Its been there achilles heal all year, North Carolina cant afford any errors.

Key 2

2) Pitch Count: Get Andrew Miller's pitch count up and make him throw strikes.


Bwhahahha. Obviously they dont read this thread. But Harold Reynolds and Mike Patrick agree with my keys to the game. ope:

Probably.

 

[NYReb]

BTW, Box, your wager on Oregon St to win the series at +860 could be a stroke of genuis. Great wager at any rate.

Otherwise, SSI's wager on North Carolina was a stroke of genius, lol. Either one or another.

 

[Boxslayer]

BTW, Box, your wager on Oregon St to win the series at +860 could be a stroke of genuis. Great wager at any rate.

Otherwise, SSI's wager on North Carolina was a stroke of genius, lol. Either one or another.

It's all about pitching. You need 3 solid starters. Remember that for next year - And the year after that and you will find value everytime.

Couple that with the bracket they were in, Rice was their only real threat.

That other bracket was a war.

I didnt give UNC's staff credit because Daniel Bard is a big time headcase, and Woodard is only a starter because he is a senior. If Woodard was a freshman or sophomore, he wouldnt be a starter. He's sort of a gimmick with that herky jerky windup. He needs to have outstanding location to be effective. He had that last game, and a generous umpire.

Both of them stepped up in their respective starts, though. So youcant take anything away from them. SSI found great value with that.