COLLEGE WEEK 15

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SixthSense

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Sep 21, 2004
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Last week produced a 4-3 +0.20% week, with barely a profit. Since going a miserable 2-7 back in week nine, the college picks have now gone 18-12-1 +7.10% over the last five weeks. Hopefully, I can continue that positive run this weekend.

Home team in caps.

LSU -9.5 Arkansas

I don't expect this to be an easy game for LSU, but I do expect them to come out on top and cover the game. LSU qualifies in a terrific 73-32-0 (8-3 TY) home momentum situation. LSU hasn't allowed more than 19 points in any one game this year. LSU has allowed just one team to gain over 100 yards rushing this season (L. Tech) and that was probably because they were way ahead. In the one game Arkansas failed to get 100 yards this year, they only scored seven points at Mississippi, losing 7-19. On the flip side, LSU has rushed for at least 100 yards in every game but one this year (Florida loss) and Arkansas has allowed 100 yards or more rushing in every game but one this year (Texas win). My final numbers suggest a 12 point LSU win and that value combined with the great situation and the potential for LSU to shut down the Arkansas running game make this a play. LSU 31 ARKANSAS 14

Florida State -1 FLORIDA

Prefer to side with an improving Florida team here, who has at least beat some formidable opponents this year. Florida led Miami most of the game before losing in the very end. They defeated LSU and Arkansas on the road. For Florida State, they were never really in their game against Miami, lost badly at Clemson and barely got by NC State. Florida qualifies in my rivalry system, which is 216-149-3 (12-8 TY) and they also qualify in a revenge situation, which is 158-91-4 (9-6 TY). Final numbers make this game a tie, before accounting for the situations Florida qualifies in. I just like the way Florida is playing, getting better each game, and the value and situations definitely lean their way. FLORIDA 27 FLORIDA STATE 17

Notre Dame -4.5 STANFORD

Never thrilled with taking ND, especially laying points, but this is a good spot for them. ND has played the toughest schedule this year. Even with that tough schedule, they still have much better numbers than Stanford. The ND offense hasn't been great this year, gaining just 4.4 yppl against 4.7 yppl but their rushing offense is above average, gaining 3.9 ypr against teams allowing 3.3 ypr and they'll face a below average Stanford rush defense, which is allowing 3.7 ypr against teams averaging only 3.4 ypr. The biggest weakness on the ND team has been their pass defense, which is allowing 7.8 yps against teams averaging 7.5 yps but it's doubtful Stanford can take advantage of that, averaging a terrible 5.1 yps against 6.7 yps. When Notre Dame has been successful this year (winning), they have rushed the ball. In each of their four wins, they have averaged 250 yards rushing, with at least 163 yards in each of those games. In each of their six losses, they have averaged just 85 yards rushing with no more than 111 yards in all but one of those losses (146 in one loss). Stanford, meanwhile, when they have been dominated, has allowed an average of 195 yards rushing in five blowout losses, losing by an average of 22 points. So, the question becomes, can ND run the ball on Stanford? As already shown, ND is above average running the ball and Stanford is below average stopping the rush. ND has only faced two teams that allow more yards per rush than their opponents are averaging and they beat both of those teams (Pittsburgh and Navy) and averaged 316 yards rushing the ball in those two games (23.5 points per game). Stanford has only faced two teams that are above average rushing the ball by gaining more yards per rush than their opponents are allowing and they lost badly to both of those teams, USC and California. Oregon State isn't above average rushing the ball. In those two games, Stanford allowed an average of 197 yards rushing (36 points per game). ND has only faced one offense this year that is as anemic as this Stanford offense, and that was BYU, who they held to just 14 points. Stanford has faced numerous defenses as good as ND this year (six in all) and averaged just 13 points per game. We know ND has averaged about 23.5 points per game against similarly poor rush defenses and Stanford has allowed 36 points per game against similarly good rush offenses. One game was against USC, of which ND is not, and so I would expect Stanford to allow closer to the 28 points in the other game and not the 44 points they allowed USC to score. And, we know ND allows about 14 points per game against similarly poor offenses and Stanford scores about 13 points per game against similarly good defenses. This all adds up to a ND offense scoring somewhere in the mid twenties and Stanford scoring around 14 points. Besides this, ND also qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 132-87-5, which plays on teams who are not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread, which usually gives us added line value. NOTRE DAME 27 STANFORD 13

BOWLING GREEN -8 Toledo

Certainly respect the Toledo program here but this is a bad spot for them this week. Both team's offenses are similarly good, with Toledo averaging 6.3 yppl against 5.7 yppl and BG averaging 6.0 yppl against 5.4 yppl. But the biggest difference between these two is the defenses, where BG is much better. BG is allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl (an average defense), while Toledo is allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl (a below average defense). Both teams run the ball well and face defenses, which are below average stopping the rush. But the big difference is the BG pass defense, which allows just 6.3 yps against 7.0 yps, while the Toledo pass defense allows 7.0 yps against 6.8 yps. The BG passing offense is slightly better as well. BG also applies to a home momentum situation, which is 107-53-4 and a revenge situation, which is 158-91-4. My final numbers also suggest an eleven point BG win before accounting for the situations they qualify in. BG has defeated a similar N. Illinois team here by 16 and Toledo has really struggled on the road this year, losing three of their toughest four games on the road to UNLV, Syracuse and Ball State by an average of 17 points. They did defeat Marshall on the road but that has been their lone quality win on the road. BOWLING GREEN 37 TOLEDO 21

YTD 37-40-2 -19.30%

2% LSU -9.5
2% FLORIDA +1
2% NOTRE DAME -4.5
2% BOWLING GREEN -8
 

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