[h=1]Best bets to go undefeated[/h][h=3]Ranking the 10 likeliest teams to finish the 2013 regular season unbeaten[/h]
By Brian Fremeau | ESPN Insider
here's a lot of football left to be played this season, but one of the biggest regular-season games is already in the rearview mirror. Alabama defeated Texas A&M on Saturday in a 49-42 shootout at Kyle Field, and the Crimson Tide are expected to remain in the driver's seat in the SEC West and in the national championship race the rest of the season.
Our drive-based, opponent-adjusted FEI ratings are still somewhat influenced by preseason projected data due to the limited amount of 2013 game data that's already in the books. The early weeks of the season have had a big impact on teams' rankings (Texas fell from No. 6 to No. 56 in the last two weeks) and a few have moved up significantly -- Central Florida, Washington and Arizona all started the season outside the top 40 and have since moved into the top 20 in FEI after strong starts.
Which teams can continue their strong starts and potentially win out over the remainder of the regular season? Here is a rundown of the 10 teams most likely to remain undefeated.
[h=3]1. Alabama Crimson Tide[/h]No. 1 overall FEI rating
52.4 percent likelihood to win out
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Alabama has at least a 90 percent win likelihood in eight of its remaining 10 games. It projects to be a solid favorite in the other two games, as well, home dates against Ole Miss and LSU. The Texas A&M game exposed defensive weaknesses in the secondary, but the Crimson Tide won't face an attack quite as potent as the Aggies the rest of the regular season. Alabama is giving up 2.0 points per opponent non-garbage drive, the worst rate of the Saban era, but our projections expect that number to fall in the coming weeks.
[h=3]2. Northern Illinois Huskies[/h]No. 44 overall FEI rating
29.1 percent likelihood to win out
The Huskies haven't been particularly dominant early this season, winning games against Iowa and Idaho by a combined 13 points. But they won't have to be dominant to win out against a schedule ranked 116th according to FEI. The highest-ranked Northern Illinois opponent remaining on the schedule is No. 66 Toledo. There are six opponents in the bottom 40 of our rankings and an FCS foe on the slate. Northern Illinois ranks 11th nationally in turnover margin (plus-1.5 per game), a factor in both of their victories to date.
[h=3]3. Louisville Cardinals[/h]No. 7 overall FEI rating
28.4 percent likelihood to win out
Louisville also has a light remaining schedule (102nd nationally), and the Cardinals have been more efficient than projected in the first few weeks. Against FBS opponents, Louisville ranks No. 6 nationally in net points per non-garbage drive, scoring 3.6 points per possession and holding opponents to only 0.7 points per possession. The best opponent left on the schedule, according to our data, is Central Florida, which will play at Louisville. The Cardinals may need to focus on field position as an area to improve. They have started 37 percent of their non-garbage drives from inside their own 20-yard line, a higher percentage than all but three other FBS teams.
[h=3]4. Oregon Ducks[/h]No. 2 overall FEI rating
17.4 percent likelihood to win out
The Ducks have been very impressive early this season, averaging 61.5 points per game and 59.0 points per game against FBS opponents. The offense hasn't missed a beat under new head coach Mark Helfrich, ranking sixth in available yards (71.7 percent), fourth in explosive drives (33.3 percent) and fifth in points per drive (4.3). The Oregon defense is also ranked fifth in limiting opponent points per drive (0.8). The reason Oregon doesn't rank higher in our projected likelihood to run the table is that three future Ducks opponents have also looked good early on, and Oregon must travel to Washington, Stanford and Arizona. Our projection model gives Oregon a 74.8 percent chance of losing at least one of those three.
[h=3]5. UCF Knights[/h]No. 13 overall FEI rating
14.5 percent likelihood to win out
No Top 25-ranked team has improved its projection more than Central Florida over the first few weeks, according to FEI. UCF has jumped 33 ranking spots from the preseason, replacing Cincinnati as the most likely contender standing in the way of Louisville and an undefeated season. The Knights don't have many obstacles left in their way, either (80th-ranked strength of schedule), and their offense is playing very efficiently. Central Florida ranks No. 6 overall in offensive efficiency, averaging at least 10 yards per play on 27 percent of its drives.
[h=3]6. Florida State Seminoles[/h]No. 7 overall FEI rating
12.4 percent likelihood to win out
The Seminoles have outscored their two FBS opponents by a total score of 103-20, impressive wins and an impressive debut for first-year starting quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston leads the nation in completion percentage (88.9 percent) and ranks second nationally in passer rating. Florida State ranks only behind Baylor in explosive drive percentage, earning at least 10 yards per play on 47 percent of its offensive non-garbage possessions. The big obstacles to an undefeated campaign include road trips to Clemson and Florida, plus a home game against Miami. Our projection model gives the Seminoles only a 16.6 percent chance of winning all three games.
[h=3]7. Clemson Tigers[/h]No. 10 overall FEI rating
12.1 percent likelihood to win out
A 38-35 victory over Georgia on the opening weekend is the best win of the season so far, according to our FEI ratings, and Clemson projects to cruise through the next few games before is next-biggest challenge against Florida State on Oct. 19. That game and a season-ending date with South Carolina are the only other games on the Tigers' schedule that don't project to at least a 75 percent win likelihood. Clemson's first road test is Thursday against NC State. Both teams were powered by turnover value generated in their first FBS wins.
[h=3]8. Fresno State Bulldogs[/h]No. 46 overall FEI rating
11.3 percent likelihood to win out
The Bulldogs have played only one FBS opponent to date because of the postponement of the Colorado game, which had been scheduled for Saturday. Fresno State edged out Rutgers by a single point in overtime and hasn't dramatically improved its FEI projection. But Fresno State's top conference competition has fallen back, and the Bulldogs will have their chance to take control of the Mountain West standings against Boise State at home on Friday night. With a victory, Fresno State may be in cruise control the rest of the year. The Bulldogs project to have single-game win likelihoods of at least 60 percent in all of their remaining games.
[h=3]9. Ohio State Buckeyes[/h]No. 9 overall FEI rating
8.6 percent likelihood to win out
The Buckeyes have been strong early this season but haven't improved their overall undefeated win likelihood due to improved projections for Michigan and Northwestern. The Buckeyes have scored at least 37 points in all three FBS games, and their special-teams play has generated value in all three games. That's a good sign since one of Ohio State's issues last season was special teams, which cost them value in seven of their last nine games. The other great sign is that the Buckeyes' offense hasn't missed a beat despite an unexpected quarterback change after Braxton Miller was injured in Week 2. Ohio State ranks 19th nationally in available yards earned.
[h=3]10. Miami Hurricanes[/h]No. 16 overall FEI rating
8.1 percent likelihood to win out
Miami is off to a solid start with wins over Florida Atlantic and Florida, and the Hurricanes have been led by their defense out the gate. They Canes rank fourth overall in defensive efficiency, generating 26.5 points of scoring value from that side of the ball in terms of field position and allowing fewer than one point per opponent drive. The toughest games on the remaining schedule are road trips to North Carolina and Florida State, and our projection model gives the Hurricanes a 78 percent chance of losing one or both of those games.
Teams that have already suffered a loss, like Georgia, could also factor into the BCS championship run, but the Bulldogs have only a 6.2 percent chance of winning out the rest of the season.
By Brian Fremeau | ESPN Insider
here's a lot of football left to be played this season, but one of the biggest regular-season games is already in the rearview mirror. Alabama defeated Texas A&M on Saturday in a 49-42 shootout at Kyle Field, and the Crimson Tide are expected to remain in the driver's seat in the SEC West and in the national championship race the rest of the season.
Our drive-based, opponent-adjusted FEI ratings are still somewhat influenced by preseason projected data due to the limited amount of 2013 game data that's already in the books. The early weeks of the season have had a big impact on teams' rankings (Texas fell from No. 6 to No. 56 in the last two weeks) and a few have moved up significantly -- Central Florida, Washington and Arizona all started the season outside the top 40 and have since moved into the top 20 in FEI after strong starts.
Which teams can continue their strong starts and potentially win out over the remainder of the regular season? Here is a rundown of the 10 teams most likely to remain undefeated.
[h=3]1. Alabama Crimson Tide[/h]No. 1 overall FEI rating
52.4 percent likelihood to win out
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Alabama has at least a 90 percent win likelihood in eight of its remaining 10 games. It projects to be a solid favorite in the other two games, as well, home dates against Ole Miss and LSU. The Texas A&M game exposed defensive weaknesses in the secondary, but the Crimson Tide won't face an attack quite as potent as the Aggies the rest of the regular season. Alabama is giving up 2.0 points per opponent non-garbage drive, the worst rate of the Saban era, but our projections expect that number to fall in the coming weeks.
[h=3]2. Northern Illinois Huskies[/h]No. 44 overall FEI rating
29.1 percent likelihood to win out
The Huskies haven't been particularly dominant early this season, winning games against Iowa and Idaho by a combined 13 points. But they won't have to be dominant to win out against a schedule ranked 116th according to FEI. The highest-ranked Northern Illinois opponent remaining on the schedule is No. 66 Toledo. There are six opponents in the bottom 40 of our rankings and an FCS foe on the slate. Northern Illinois ranks 11th nationally in turnover margin (plus-1.5 per game), a factor in both of their victories to date.
[h=3]3. Louisville Cardinals[/h]No. 7 overall FEI rating
28.4 percent likelihood to win out
Louisville also has a light remaining schedule (102nd nationally), and the Cardinals have been more efficient than projected in the first few weeks. Against FBS opponents, Louisville ranks No. 6 nationally in net points per non-garbage drive, scoring 3.6 points per possession and holding opponents to only 0.7 points per possession. The best opponent left on the schedule, according to our data, is Central Florida, which will play at Louisville. The Cardinals may need to focus on field position as an area to improve. They have started 37 percent of their non-garbage drives from inside their own 20-yard line, a higher percentage than all but three other FBS teams.
[h=3]4. Oregon Ducks[/h]No. 2 overall FEI rating
17.4 percent likelihood to win out
The Ducks have been very impressive early this season, averaging 61.5 points per game and 59.0 points per game against FBS opponents. The offense hasn't missed a beat under new head coach Mark Helfrich, ranking sixth in available yards (71.7 percent), fourth in explosive drives (33.3 percent) and fifth in points per drive (4.3). The Oregon defense is also ranked fifth in limiting opponent points per drive (0.8). The reason Oregon doesn't rank higher in our projected likelihood to run the table is that three future Ducks opponents have also looked good early on, and Oregon must travel to Washington, Stanford and Arizona. Our projection model gives Oregon a 74.8 percent chance of losing at least one of those three.
[h=3]5. UCF Knights[/h]No. 13 overall FEI rating
14.5 percent likelihood to win out
No Top 25-ranked team has improved its projection more than Central Florida over the first few weeks, according to FEI. UCF has jumped 33 ranking spots from the preseason, replacing Cincinnati as the most likely contender standing in the way of Louisville and an undefeated season. The Knights don't have many obstacles left in their way, either (80th-ranked strength of schedule), and their offense is playing very efficiently. Central Florida ranks No. 6 overall in offensive efficiency, averaging at least 10 yards per play on 27 percent of its drives.
[h=3]6. Florida State Seminoles[/h]No. 7 overall FEI rating
12.4 percent likelihood to win out
The Seminoles have outscored their two FBS opponents by a total score of 103-20, impressive wins and an impressive debut for first-year starting quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston leads the nation in completion percentage (88.9 percent) and ranks second nationally in passer rating. Florida State ranks only behind Baylor in explosive drive percentage, earning at least 10 yards per play on 47 percent of its offensive non-garbage possessions. The big obstacles to an undefeated campaign include road trips to Clemson and Florida, plus a home game against Miami. Our projection model gives the Seminoles only a 16.6 percent chance of winning all three games.
[h=3]7. Clemson Tigers[/h]No. 10 overall FEI rating
12.1 percent likelihood to win out
A 38-35 victory over Georgia on the opening weekend is the best win of the season so far, according to our FEI ratings, and Clemson projects to cruise through the next few games before is next-biggest challenge against Florida State on Oct. 19. That game and a season-ending date with South Carolina are the only other games on the Tigers' schedule that don't project to at least a 75 percent win likelihood. Clemson's first road test is Thursday against NC State. Both teams were powered by turnover value generated in their first FBS wins.
[h=3]8. Fresno State Bulldogs[/h]No. 46 overall FEI rating
11.3 percent likelihood to win out
The Bulldogs have played only one FBS opponent to date because of the postponement of the Colorado game, which had been scheduled for Saturday. Fresno State edged out Rutgers by a single point in overtime and hasn't dramatically improved its FEI projection. But Fresno State's top conference competition has fallen back, and the Bulldogs will have their chance to take control of the Mountain West standings against Boise State at home on Friday night. With a victory, Fresno State may be in cruise control the rest of the year. The Bulldogs project to have single-game win likelihoods of at least 60 percent in all of their remaining games.
[h=3]9. Ohio State Buckeyes[/h]No. 9 overall FEI rating
8.6 percent likelihood to win out
The Buckeyes have been strong early this season but haven't improved their overall undefeated win likelihood due to improved projections for Michigan and Northwestern. The Buckeyes have scored at least 37 points in all three FBS games, and their special-teams play has generated value in all three games. That's a good sign since one of Ohio State's issues last season was special teams, which cost them value in seven of their last nine games. The other great sign is that the Buckeyes' offense hasn't missed a beat despite an unexpected quarterback change after Braxton Miller was injured in Week 2. Ohio State ranks 19th nationally in available yards earned.
[h=3]10. Miami Hurricanes[/h]No. 16 overall FEI rating
8.1 percent likelihood to win out
Miami is off to a solid start with wins over Florida Atlantic and Florida, and the Hurricanes have been led by their defense out the gate. They Canes rank fourth overall in defensive efficiency, generating 26.5 points of scoring value from that side of the ball in terms of field position and allowing fewer than one point per opponent drive. The toughest games on the remaining schedule are road trips to North Carolina and Florida State, and our projection model gives the Hurricanes a 78 percent chance of losing one or both of those games.
A handful of other undefeated teams that are ranked highly in FEI play too many tough opponents down the stretch to be candidates to run the table. But teams like Stanford (7.6 percent), Oklahoma (6.8 percent), LSU (3.6 percent), Michigan (2.2 percent) and others could improve their standing dramatically with one more big victory.Teams that have already suffered a loss, like Georgia, could also factor into the BCS championship run, but the Bulldogs have only a 6.2 percent chance of winning out the rest of the season.
