* College Football Goy Play *

TheComputerGroup · Nov 1, 2016

I quit betting college over a month ago after losing my 6k profits, wasn't comfortable with college at all until this game.

Thursday night:

UCLA +12 (-110)........(GOY).......X-Large str wagers are 2k plays, this is twice as much.

JChapman823 · Nov 1, 2016

The Computer Group said:
I quit betting college over a month ago after losing my 6k profits, wasn't comfortable with college at all until this game.

Thursday night:

UCLA +12 (-110)........(GOY).......X-Large str wagers are 2k plays, this is twice as much.

I like the pick. Any insight as to what makes it the GOY pick?

CUSE15 · Nov 1, 2016

Your going against Conan the West Coast specialist may the best man win!

Pickle2728 · Nov 1, 2016

CUSE15 said:
Your going against Conan the West Coast specialist may the best man win!

That's definitely a goocher. BOL

PeePee · Nov 1, 2016

Buffs is 8-0 ATS this year. They've been outperformed oddsmaker by a mile.

solrosenberg · Nov 1, 2016

GL TCG I have no idea what makes this a goy....

varkeyboy · Nov 1, 2016

CUSE15 said:
Your going against Conan the West Coast specialist may the best man win!

Eeks.

varkeyboy · Nov 1, 2016

PeePee said:
Buffs is 8-0 ATS this year. They've been outperformed oddsmaker by a mile.

Wow, very impressive!

r.a. · Nov 1, 2016

C.U. alum and there hasn't been this much enthusiasm for the football program since Colorado was ranked number two in the nation under Gary Barnett in 2001. This is MacIntyre's 4th year as coach and now playing with many of the players he has recruited. Not knocking your pick but this game features one of college football's biggest surprises vs. arguably one of it's biggest disappointments. UCLA hasn't defeated anyone with a winning record and will very likely finish with a losing record and be Mora's adios. Colorado has a decent chance of running the table and going 10-2. Buffs are the only division I team with a perfect ats ... 8-0.

fballgenius · Nov 2, 2016

Please, CG, could you give us some insight into what makes this a GOY. The Bruins are really floundering. Thanks and good luck.

tmader7 · Nov 2, 2016

r.a. said:
C.U. alum and there hasn't been this much enthusiasm for the football program since Colorado was ranked number two in the nation under Gary Barnett in 2001. This is MacIntyre's 4th year as coach and now playing with many of the players he has recruited. Not knocking your pick but this game features one of college football's biggest surprises vs. arguably one of it's biggest disappointments. UCLA hasn't defeated anyone with a winning record and will very likely finish with a losing record and be Mora's adios. Colorado has a decent chance of running the table and going 10-2. Buffs are the only division I team with a perfect ats ... 8-0.

Out of 128 FBS schools, he picks the 119th team to cover against the numero uno team: http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/statistics/2016-2017/ats.html WOOOOOOOOOOOW!!!

~T~

solrosenberg · Nov 2, 2016

UCLA no running game and no quarterback.... yikes

ShortBusDriver7 · Nov 2, 2016

getting hit hard by big money, up to 13

GoSooners · Nov 2, 2016

sol rosenberg said:
UCLA no running game and no quarterback.... yikes

I actually like their backup QB more than Rosen

ThaDude · Nov 2, 2016

Made same post in Conan's thread:

Is Colorado 5 points better than Wazzu on a nuetral field?

Is Colorado 9.5 points better than Utah on a nuetral?

That is what Colorado -12 is implying assuming home field is worth standard 3.

I certainly understand other things are factored into the line other than straight power rating but this is as good a starting point as any. Let's not pretend they're dreadful with Faufal in the lineup. They're 1-1 ATS against 2 top 25 teams.

This is is not an argument for UCLA, just a starting point to assess line value.

tmader7 · Nov 2, 2016

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Yeah Dude, see what you're looking at. They haven't been beaten by more than 9 this season. My bad men, I'm seeing some 13 (Arrrrgh) out there now, I can't argue with this play.

~T~

ThaDude · Nov 2, 2016

r.a. said:
C.U. alum and there hasn't been this much enthusiasm for the football program since Colorado was ranked number two in the nation under Gary Barnett in 2001. This is MacIntyre's 4th year as coach and now playing with many of the players he has recruited. Not knocking your pick but this game features one of college football's biggest surprises vs. arguably one of it's biggest disappointments. UCLA hasn't defeated anyone with a winning record and will very likely finish with a losing record and be Mora's adios. Colorado has a decent chance of running the table and going 10-2. Buffs are the only division I team with a perfect ats ... 8-0.

All reasons why the line is -12, not why Colorado covers it.

PeePee · Nov 2, 2016

ThaDude said:
All reasons why the line is -12, not why Colorado covers it.

See my comment above.... Colorado has been outperformed oddsmaker numbers thia year...they have no choice but adjust. Maybe they had been undervalued thus far.
Would we say the same if/had they won both games where their QB couldn't finish. Let's not forget they were leading Michigan when he went down.

ThaDude · Nov 2, 2016

PeePee said:
See my comment above.... Colorado has been outperformed oddsmaker numbers thia year...they have no choice but adjust. Maybe they had been undervalued thus far.
Would we say the same if/had they won both games where their QB couldn't finish. Let's not forget they were leading Michigan when he went down.

You're not even making a clear argument. Are you saying they're still undervalued at -12? Or is the line right? There's no value laying -110 into a line you feel splits the results 50/50.

PeePee · Nov 2, 2016

Can't be much clearer than that...y'all valued Colorado as top 25 team. Wash st is 25, Utah is 16... Oddsmakers think a healthy Colorado team is top 10. When will you adjust the line... 8 games is not enough? Wait until they kick your butt 12-0???
What would the spread be for #3 Michigan vs. UCLA at home? I'm sure its near 3 td