College Football 2014 Statistical difference bets

[quantumleap]

This thread will be a discussion and bets regarding teams that have a good offense playing teams that have a bad defense. I'm going to specifically target teams that have a good rushing offense vs. teams that have a bad rushing defense. The reason for this is because good rushing teams control the time of possession better than good passing teams.

I will be bringing up potential matchups ahead of time so that there may be a good discussion. I'll try to make a heading such as "Potential bets" so readers won't think I'm making an actual bet. When I do make a bet I will include the sports book I'm betting at and the line/juice of the bet.

I will be using the statfox.com web site to see the yards gained vs. yards given up.

 

[Dualnautical]

I'm interested to see how this goes

 

[quantumleap]

I just wanted to bring up a couple games that fit this scenario that have already finished.

Ga. Southern -16 1/2 over Appalachian State
I don't have the stats for this game since it happened yesterday. Ga. Southern had good rushing stats and Appalachian State had a poor run defense.

Ga. Southern dominated in the first half going up 21-0 only to let Appalachia State pull to within 24-14 at the half. Ga. Southern scored 10 points in the second half to none for Appalachian State to win 34-14 to cover the -16 1/2.

In Appalachian State's defense, they were in danger of scoring on Ga. Southern 3 times in the game and came up with no points so Ga. Southern's defense definitely was a factor here.

New Mexico +6 1/2 over Fresno State
NM averaged 350 yards rushing and were at home and Fresno State averaged giving up 218 ypg. So why was Fresno State favored? Well they have generally been a much better team in the last few years. In addition to this, Fresno State played rushing powerhouse Nebraska so their rushing defense yards were inflated. This is why I like discussion and not just comparing stats.

Fresno State fell behind 14-17 at the half but pulled away for a 35-24 win and cover. This bet would have lost. I just wanted to post this to show that straight statistics shouldn't be the only criteria.

 

[quantumleap]

I'm interested to see how this goes

As you might see from the 2 games I posted after your post, nothing is a sure thing. That's what makes things interesting. After all, this is College Football. How many more sports are more exciting than this?

I hope you find it interesting.

 

[quantumleap]

Here are some games I'm going to be looking at-

Indiana -3 1/4 over Maryland
Indiana averages 310 rushing ypg while Maryland averages giving up 200 rushing ypg.

Pitt -20 1/2 over Akron
I'm going to try to stay away from such big spreads. That's why I'm skipping Baylor -22 over Iowa State, especially since Baylor is on the road. However, in this game Pitt averages 304 rushing ypg while Akron gives up 179 rushing ypg so it was too tempting to pass over. I'm thinking a backdoor cover by Akron is less likely since Pitt will control the late game by chewing up the clock on the ground.

Penn St. -11 over Northwestern
Pa St. averages 330 passing ypg vs. NW giving up 257 passing ypg.

BC -9 1/2 over Colorado St.
BC averages 336 passing ypg vs. Colorado St. giving up 264 passing ypg.

Texas St. +3 over Tulsa
Texas St. averages 243 rushing ypg. vs. Tulsa giving up 231 rushing ypg. Why is Tulsa favored here? Well one thing to consider is that Tulsa has a good passing offense.

Colorado +14 1/2 over Cal
Colorado averages 290 passing ypg vs. Cal giving up 317 passing ypg. Look out for Cal though as they average 335 passing ypg. Perhaps the over 67 1/2 might be a good bet.

Rice -8.5 over So. Miss
Rice averages 222 rushing ypg vs. So. Miss averages giving up 255 rushing ypg.

Clemson -15 1/2 over UNC
Clemson averages 320 passing ypg vs. UNC giving up 222 passing ypg.

 

[indiana]

Q/leap...........good luck with all your action............looks to sound.........indy

 

[Soriano12]

In Appalachian State's defense, they were in danger of scoring on Ga. Southern 3 times in the game and came up with no points so Ga. Southern's defense definitely was a factor here.

The 1st one of those 3 redzone trips without a score imo had less to do with good defense but was just pisspoor coaching: After struggling with their running game for pretty much the whole game up to that point, they go for it with about 12min to go in the 3rd(!) quarter, being down by 10 at Ga Southerns 9 yard line on a 4th and 4 (not even 4th and 1) instead of kicking a FG???

Best of luck with your project, QL. ^!:

 

[tmader7]

I'm either a little ahead of ya QL or on the same page. I put together a spreadsheet for the same info, still got a bug or two to work out, but I'm adding ATS info to your logic as well. The only things you can't figure in the spreadsheet are look ahead and letdown situations, and of course injuries. That TX State game has a number of guy's here, including me, attention. Tulsa ranks 124th in Defense in the country. Yeah, they pass the ball, but TX's stong suit on D is against the pass, 157/game, whereas they allow 233/game rushing. I'm not gonna comment on every scenario above, this is your thread, but if you'd like me to share the spread sheet with you once I've got it done, shoot me a note. GL

~T~

 

[quantumleap]

Q/leap...........good luck with all your action............looks to sound.........indy

Thanks Indy.

 

[quantumleap]

The 1st one of those 3 redzone trips without a score imo had less to do with good defense but was just pisspoor coaching: After struggling with their running game for pretty much the whole game up to that point, they go for it with about 12min to go in the 3rd(!) quarter, being down by 10 at Ga Southerns 9 yard line on a 4th and 4 (not even 4th and 1) instead of kicking a FG???

Best of luck with your project, QL. ^!:

Thanks Soriano. Good to see you around.

How are the ladies in Brazil treating you? I'm looking for a new destination to visit. Maybe Brazil is in my future.

 

[quantumleap]

I'm either a little ahead of ya QL or on the same page. I put together a spreadsheet for the same info, still got a bug or two to work out, but I'm adding ATS info to your logic as well. The only things you can't figure in the spreadsheet are look ahead and letdown situations, and of course injuries. That TX State game has a number of guy's here, including me, attention. Tulsa ranks 124th in Defense in the country. Yeah, they pass the ball, but TX's stong suit on D is against the pass, 157/game, whereas they allow 233/game rushing. I'm not gonna comment on every scenario above, this is your thread, but if you'd like me to share the spread sheet with you once I've got it done, shoot me a note. GL

~T~

Great input.

Yes, I've considered ATS info as well but don't quite know how to factor it in yet.

The "look ahead" and "letdown" situations and injuries are good but I also like to look at turnovers which can play a big part of the game, especially if it disrupts momentum.

I guess this is why it's so difficult to handicap games. There are so many variables but any input is welcome.

 

[quantumleap]

Going with these early-

Penn State -10 -105 5dimes (1 unit)

Indiana -2 1/2 -105 5dimes (1 unit)
Indiana/Maryland over 70 (1 unit)
Going with this pick early since it's now down to -2 1/2. I've also decided to play totals to see how that plays out. This particular total seems low due to the passing yards for both teams and the lack of a passing defense for Indiana.

Texas State +3 +100 5dimes (2 units)
I've liked this one from the start. Going with this early since some shops have gone to +2 1/2 already.

I most probably will add more later.

 

[quantumleap]

Going with this one on the favorable odds change-

BC -6 1/2 -105 5dimes (2 units)

 

[quantumleap]

Going to pass on Pitt. Just too many points for the first week I'm playing this.

Going with:

Colorado +15 -110 betDSI (1 unit)
Colorado/Cal over 67 5dimes -105 (1 unit)

Both Cal and Colorado have good passing offenses. Cal has a terrible pass defense.

 

[quantumleap]

Looks like Indy didn't show up which caused me to lose the spread and the total. So I went 0-3 for the first 2 games but it looks promising for the later games.

Going with-

Rice -8 -110 SIA (1 unit)

Clemson -14 -108 Heritage (1 unit)

That should do it for this week. I'll post a recap later today.

 

[quantumleap]

-1.00 Penn State -10 -105 5dimes (1 unit)
-1.00 Indiana -2 1/2 -105 5dimes (1 unit)
-1.00 Indiana/Maryland over 70 (1 unit)
-2.00 BC -6 1/2 -105 5dimes (2 units)
+0.91 Colorado +15 -110 betdsi (1 unit)
+0.95 Colorado/Cal over 67 5dimes -105 (1 unit)
+0.91 Rice -8 -110 SIA (1 unit)
+0.93 Clemson -14 -108 Heritage (1 unit)

Lost the first 4, then won the next 4. Let's see how Texas State finishes.

 

[tmader7]

I'm watchin the game, I think you'll be fine.....as I throw a few dolls, hair samples, you name it into the fire, lol, I'm on them also. GL and I'll try and add a little to this thread as you progress, I've only lost USTA today which really pissed me off since they were up 10 with about 5 to go.

~T~

 

[tmader7]

Two-dick dog'd that one. What you didn't point out, but I'm sure you knew as I did, was that TX State's Achilles heel is defending the run and it damn near cost them the game. But, money in the account. Congrats.

~T~

 

[quantumleap]

I'm watchin the game, I think you'll be fine.....as I throw a few dolls, hair samples, you name it into the fire, lol, I'm on them also. GL and I'll try and add a little to this thread as you progress, I've only lost USTA today which really pissed me off since they were up 10 with about 5 to go.

~T~

LOL! Thanks for the voodoo tmader.

Yes, Texas State's poor run defense shows up on the statfox.com page. Thanks for the input.

+2.00 Texas State +3 +100 5dimes (2 units)

YTD: 5-4, +0.70

 

[8ate]

Indiana is a basketball school....put that in your algorithm...gl