College Basketball Sweat Baromoter (ATS Success)

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hacheman@therx.com
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College Basketball Sweat Barometer
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By Jeff Gold
ESPN INSIDER
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What is the Sweat Barometer?

The Sweat Barometer measures how well college basketball teams do against the spread -- and how much they will make you sweat when you bet them. We'll know this by tracking the margin by which they cover -- or don't. For example, through the first 15 Vegas-posted games this season, the Georgetown Hoyas went 7-1 against the spread and covered by a margin of 5.8 points. Generally, that would make the Hoyas a good bet. On the flip side, through the Pittsburgh Panthers' first 15 posted games, they were minus-6.94. That's bad.
The against-the-spread (ATS) margin is based on the closing lines for each team's games.
The Sweat Barometer will run during the college hoops season and will list each team's ATS record (overall/home/away), its RPI and its sweat margin.

After I sort through the Sweat Barometer data each week, there is one final task before submitting my piece: I add each school's nickname.


Adding nicknames can be tedious. No matter how many weeks in a row South Dakota State is atop the board, I seem unable to remember that the team name is the Jackrabbits. Same goes for North Texas (Mean Green), Wofford (Terriers) and Middle Tennessee State (Blue Raiders).


It becomes remarkably easier as I make my way down the "Remaining Top 25" part of the chart as those are the teams we all know so well. And look who is at the bottom this week: Duke … yes, the Blue Devils have been a terrible bet this season.


It again brings back the all-important lesson of "public" teams that Chad Millman explores frequently on this blog and in his podcasts. These are teams backed by the masses and the ones you probably don't want to get into the habit of betting because you aren't getting much value in their lines. In college basketball, one prime example is Duke.


"They are always overrated because of the name on the jersey," said professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of MadduxSports.com, the data provider for the Sweat Barometer. "They are going to get everyone's best game every time they play, because they're Duke. It's similar to what Miami goes through in the NBA when it gets everyone's best."


Selvaggio went even further. Not only is Duke generally a bad bet, but this is the time of the year when it's especially wise to stay away.


"In conference play all these teams are very familiar with each other and the value often lies playing against the 'named' schools more often than not," Selvaggio said.


Duke has won six of its past eight games … and also failed to cover in six of those eight. Duke's average line against ACC opponents has been -10.


The Blue Devils have a legend on the sidelines, a roster full of McDonald's All-Americans and one of the best home courts in the nation. They even have legitimate Final Four hopes. But that doesn't make them a good bet.


With that said, let's turn to the latest Sweat Barometer of the best and worst teams to bet in college basketball, once again topped by South Dakota State … the Jackrabbits.

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<!-- begin inline 2 -->Sweat Barometer Ranking Top 25 (minimum 14 games ATS)

<table><thead><tr><th style="width: 120px;">Team (AP Rank)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>ATS/H</th><th>ATS/A</th><th>SB</th><th>Closing Line</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>South Dakota State Jackrabbits</td><td>17-6-0</td><td>11-3-1</td><td>4-0-0</td><td>6-3-0</td><td>8.27</td><td>-3.8</td><td>62</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Texas Mean Green</td><td>13-9-0</td><td>12-3-0</td><td>4-1-0</td><td>7-1-0</td><td>5.93</td><td>1.73</td><td>201</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wofford Terriers</td><td>15-8-0</td><td>11-6-0</td><td>7-0-0</td><td>4-6-0</td><td>5.5</td><td>1.74</td><td>161</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders</td><td>20-3-0</td><td>14-5-1</td><td>6-4-0</td><td>8-1-1</td><td>5.05</td><td>-6.3</td><td>46</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Manhattan Jaspers</td><td>16-7-0</td><td>16-5-0</td><td>4-3-0</td><td>10-2-0</td><td>4.98</td><td>0.64</td><td>111</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wyoming Cowboys</td><td>17-4-0</td><td>11-5-0</td><td>7-3-0</td><td>4-2-0</td><td>4.88</td><td>-5.5</td><td>79</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Michigan State Spartans (9)</td><td>16-5-0</td><td>13-6-0</td><td>8-2-0</td><td>4-3-0</td><td>4.82</td><td>-7.76</td><td>5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Florida State Seminoles (21)</td><td>14-6-0</td><td>11-6-1</td><td>7-2-0</td><td>3-3-0</td><td>4.72</td><td>-5.44</td><td>24</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>La Salle Explorers</td><td>16-6-0</td><td>11-4-1</td><td>6-1-1</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>4.69</td><td>-1.81</td><td>66</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ohio Bobcats</td><td>17-4-0</td><td>8-6-0</td><td>3-4-0</td><td>5-2-0</td><td>4.68</td><td>-3.32</td><td>71</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Providence Friars</td><td>12-10-0</td><td>6-8-0</td><td>2-4-0</td><td>4-2-0</td><td>4.68</td><td>5.96</td><td>133</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Iowa State Cyclones</td><td>16-6-0</td><td>11-7-0</td><td>5-5-0</td><td>4-2-0</td><td>4.58</td><td>-1.64</td><td>41</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Montana Grizzlies</td><td>15-6-0</td><td>10-5-1</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>5-2-1</td><td>4.41</td><td>-4.03</td><td>107</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Nevada Wolf Pack</td><td>18-3-0</td><td>13-4-0</td><td>6-2-0</td><td>6-1-0</td><td>4.03</td><td>-2.79</td><td>59</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Akron Zips</td><td>14-7-0</td><td>11-6-0</td><td>5-0-0</td><td>6-5-0</td><td>3.94</td><td>1.41</td><td>58</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Harvard Crimson</td><td>18-2-0</td><td>9-5-0</td><td>1-2-0</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>3.86</td><td>-8.64</td><td>44</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Missouri Tigers (4)</td><td>19-2-0</td><td>11-6-0</td><td>7-2-0</td><td>3-3-0</td><td>3.68</td><td>-10.44</td><td>12</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Creighton Bluejays (13)</td><td>19-2-0</td><td>12-6-0</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>7-3-0</td><td>3.67</td><td>-5.44</td><td>16</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New Mexico Lobos</td><td>18-4-0</td><td>14-5-0</td><td>6-3-0</td><td>6-1-0</td><td>3.5</td><td>-9.39</td><td>38</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans</td><td>9-13-0</td><td>14-5-0</td><td>6-2-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>3.42</td><td>7</td><td>169</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Buffalo Bulls</td><td>11-6-0</td><td>8-9-0</td><td>3-5-0</td><td>5-4-0</td><td>3.35</td><td>-2.76</td><td>96</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Colorado Buffaloes</td><td>14-7-0</td><td>10-7-0</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>4-2-0</td><td>3.35</td><td>0.18</td><td>81</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>California Golden Bears</td><td>17-5-0</td><td>13-6-0</td><td>9-3-0</td><td>3-3-0</td><td>3.32</td><td>-9.26</td><td>31</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>UTEP Miners</td><td>10-11-0</td><td>10-7-0</td><td>5-2-0</td><td>2-5-0</td><td>3.29</td><td>2.53</td><td>158</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 2 --><!-- begin inline 3 -->Remaining AP Top 25 (minimum 14 games ATS)

<table><thead><tr><th style="width: 120px;">Team (AP Rank)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>Home ATS</th><th>Away ATS</th><th>SB</th><th>Closing Line</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Ohio State Buckeyes (3)</td><td>18-3-0</td><td>10-7-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>2-4-0</td><td>3.26</td><td>-14.85</td><td>6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Baylor Bears (6)</td><td>17-2-0</td><td>6-5-1</td><td>1-4-0</td><td>4-1-1</td><td>2.71</td><td>-3.96</td><td>3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Murray State Racers (10)</td><td>21-0-0</td><td>7-8-1</td><td>1-4-1</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>2.59</td><td>-8.91</td><td>35</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Virginia Cavaliers (16)</td><td>18-3-0</td><td>10-6-0</td><td>3-5-0</td><td>5-0-0</td><td>2.38</td><td>-7.19</td><td>39</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Michigan Wolverines (23)</td><td>16-6-0</td><td>10-8-0</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>2-4-0</td><td>1.78</td><td>-3.06</td><td>17</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Indiana Hoosiers (20)</td><td>15-5-0</td><td>9-5-1</td><td>6-2-0</td><td>3-3-1</td><td>1.5</td><td>-3.37</td><td>22</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Georgetown Hoyas (14)</td><td>16-4-0</td><td>8-7-0</td><td>2-4-0</td><td>4-3-0</td><td>1.4</td><td>-5.07</td><td>14</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>St. Mary's Gaels (18)</td><td>21-2-0</td><td>9-7-1</td><td>4-3-1</td><td>4-3-0</td><td>1.09</td><td>-10.15</td><td>19</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>San Diego State Aztecs (17)</td><td>18-3-0</td><td>8-8-0</td><td>4-5-0</td><td>4-3-0</td><td>0.94</td><td>-3.88</td><td>20</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Syracuse Orange (2)</td><td>22-1-0</td><td>13-9-0</td><td>8-8-0</td><td>5-1-0</td><td>0.93</td><td>-14.84</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>UNLV Rebels (11)</td><td>18-3-0</td><td>7-10-0</td><td>5-4-0</td><td>2-6-0</td><td>0.62</td><td>-8.68</td><td>7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kansas Jayhawks (8)</td><td>16-4-0</td><td>8-10-0</td><td>5-5-0</td><td>2-2-0</td><td>0.47</td><td>-10.03</td><td>8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wisconsin Badgers (19)</td><td>18-5-0</td><td>11-8-0</td><td>5-5-0</td><td>4-3-0</td><td>-0.08</td><td>-9.92</td><td>23</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Mississippi State Bulldogs (22)</td><td>16-5-0</td><td>10-10-0</td><td>5-7-0</td><td>3-3-0</td><td>-0.43</td><td>-5.83</td><td>37</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Gonzaga Bulldogs (24)</td><td>17-3-0</td><td>9-10-0</td><td>8-6-0</td><td>1-4-0</td><td>-0.5</td><td>-11.71</td><td>21</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Vanderbilt Commodores (25)</td><td>16-6-0</td><td>9-9-0</td><td>3-7-0</td><td>5-1-0</td><td>-0.53</td><td>-5.81</td><td>25</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kentucky Wildcats (1)</td><td>21-1-0</td><td>7-14-0</td><td>3-10-0</td><td>2-3-0</td><td>-0.6</td><td>-17.74</td><td>4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Florida Gators (12)</td><td>16-4-0</td><td>9-7-0</td><td>6-4-0</td><td>3-3-0</td><td>-0.69</td><td>-10.44</td><td>15</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Marquette Golden Eagles (15)</td><td>19-4-0</td><td>10-9-1</td><td>3-6-1</td><td>5-1-0</td><td>-0.78</td><td>-8.68</td><td>9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Carolina Tar Heels (5)</td><td>15-3-0</td><td>9-9-0</td><td>5-5-0</td><td>2-4-0</td><td>-1.58</td><td>-15.53</td><td>10</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Duke Blue Devils (7)</td><td>17-3-0</td><td>7-13-0</td><td>3-7-0</td><td>2-3-0</td><td>-3</td><td>-12.75</td><td>2</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 3 --><!-- begin inline 4 -->SB Bottom 5 (minimum 14 games ATS)

<table><thead><tr><th style="width: 120px;">Team (AP Rank)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>Home ATS</th><th>Away ATS</th><th>SB</th><th>Closing Line</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Cal State Northridge Matadors</td><td>6-13-0</td><td>7-7-0</td><td>2-3-0</td><td>5-4-0</td><td>-4.89</td><td>8.32</td><td>298</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Western Carolina Catamounts</td><td>7-14-0</td><td>6-13-0</td><td>2-3-0</td><td>3-9-0</td><td>-5.03</td><td>4.55</td><td>241</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Pittsburgh Panthers</td><td>14-9-0</td><td>8-10-0</td><td>2-7-0</td><td>6-2-0</td><td>-5.19</td><td>-5.36</td><td>65</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Santa Clara Broncos</td><td>8-13-0</td><td>5-13-0</td><td>2-7-0</td><td>1-5-0</td><td>-5.72</td><td>1.78</td><td>261</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Northern Arizona Lumberjacks</td><td>4-17-0</td><td>4-13-1</td><td>1-4-1</td><td>3-7-0</td><td>-7.14</td></tr></tbody></table>
 

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