College Bases - the Super Regional plays Thread

[winkyduck]

this is a follow-up to the Regionals play thread:

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=282029&highlight=omaha

Regionals

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Overall: 7-2: +9.60 units

Games: 4-2: +2.10 units

Series: 3-0: +7.50 units

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To win Corvalis Regional: <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace><st1laceName>Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType>State</st1laceType></st1lace> -250: WIN +1.00 units

To win Long Beach Regional: USC +500: WIN +5.00 units

To win Tempe Regional: ASU +150: WIN +1.50 units

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06/05/05: Long Beach -177 over Pepperdine: Pepp 6-3 --- LOSS: -1.77 units

06/04/05: USC +110 over Long Beach: USC 6-4 --- WIN: +1.10 units

<st1:date Year="2005" Day="4" Month="6">06/04/05</st1:date>: Pepperdine -3.5 -123 over <st1:State><st1lace>Rhode Island</st1lace></st1:State>: Pepp 2-1 --- LOSS: -1.23 units

<st1:date Year="2005" Day="3" Month="6">06/03/05</st1:date>: <st1:City><st1lace>Fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> -170 over Harvard (2-unit play): <st1:City><st1lace>Fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> 19-0 --- WIN: +2.00 units

<st1:date Year="2005" Day="3" Month="6">06/03/05</st1:date>: <st1:City><st1lace>Long Beach</st1lace></st1:City> -165 over <st1:State><st1lace>Rhode Island</st1lace></st1:State>: <st1:City><st1lace>Long Beach</st1lace></st1:City> 11-2 --- WIN: +1.00 units

<st1:date Year="2005" Day="3" Month="6">06/03/05</st1:date>: <st1lace><st1laceName>Florida</st1laceName> <st1laceType>State</st1laceType></st1lace> -210 over Army: FSU 3-2 --- WIN: +1.00 units

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After a nice run in the Regionals it is time to move on to a round I actually think is easier because we know who will be pitching each game – and that is such a key in college ball.

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There are a few series plays I like and a few of the G1 I like, too

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As for Friday, June 10:

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(Pinnacle) <st1:City><st1lace>Miami</st1lace></st1:City> +121 @ <st1:State><st1lace>Nebraska</st1lace></st1:State> (-135): Sorry Steroid M0ngers – PROVE IT to me. NOT for ONE second do I – or many others – believe you are the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> best team in the nation! <st1:Street><st1:address>NO WAY</st1:address></st1:Street>! Congrats on winning your weak regional last week – but now you play someone who can play some ball. Carillo is starting for <st1:City><st1lace>Miami</st1lace></st1:City> and in his “Crimicanes” career he has lost only 1 game going XX-1 in the process. I like the fact this is an early start which could negate the HFA for the M0ngers. This is just a classic case of taking a great pitcher and program against a program I am not sold on.

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<st1:City><st1lace>Miami</st1lace></st1:City> +121 (10A)

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(Pinnacle) <st1:State><st1lace>Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State> +103 @ Ga. Tech (-120): As has been pointed out – UT STUD pitcher Luke Hochevar is as GREAT as it gets. He dropped to 40<SUP>th</SUP> overall in the draft to the Dodgers ONLY because of who his agent is – Scott Borass. Tech on the other hand is infamous for gagging this time of year. Add the 2 up and I agree 100% with the post someone said was posted at Fezzik’s place – Hochevar will win this game. This is my fave play of all of the SR G1’s.

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<st1:State><st1lace>Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State> +103 (<st1:time Hour="12" Minute="0">Noon</st1:time> on ESPN2)

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Saturday, June 11:

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(Olympic) Texass (+110) @ Ole Miss -130: I have trashed the SEC the past 2 years (rightfully so) but here I am going with them. Texass is NOT the same Texass teams of year’s past. This year’s squad really isn’t as good as in the past and now they get an Ole Miss team hungry to make amends for last year’s terrible showing. The G1 line – and the series price – shows this to be a competitive game/series. Sorry – I don’t see that either way.

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Ole Miss -130 (2P)

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Leans in the other 5 G1 games:

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(Pinnacle) <st1:State><st1lace>Florida</st1lace></st1:State> -123 (FSU)

(Olympic) <st1:City><st1lace>Fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> -280 (ASU – although all the value is with ASU – but they have lost the last 2 years at <st1:City><st1lace>Fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> to end their season – this will make #3)

(Olympic) Baylor -130 (Clemson)

(Pinnacle) Tulane -215 (Rice)

(Pinnacle) USC +139 (<st1:State><st1lace>Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> State – although OSU hit Ian Kennedy somewhat hard a few weeks ago)

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Series I am playing:

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(Olympic) Miami +120 (Nebraska -140): If I like the Canes in G1 – that puts me 1 win away from cashing and I think that will happen. As I said – NO WAY are the Steroid M0ngers the 3rd best team in the nation and <st1:City><st1lace>Miami</st1lace></st1:City> will expose them as the frauds they are here. <st1:City><st1lace>Miami</st1lace></st1:City> +120 to win the series and make <st1:City><st1lace>Omaha</st1lace></st1:City>.

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(Olympic) Tennessee +165 (Ga Tech -185): I am fairly certain I am getting G1 to go UT’s way so now I am only 1 win away from cashing – like Miami’s situation. And as stated – Ga. Tech has to show me they aren’t choke artists any longer – and so far – they have not. <st1:State><st1lace>Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State> +165 to win the series and make <st1:City><st1lace>Omaha</st1lace></st1:City>.

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(Olympic) Texass (+100) @ Ole Miss -120: My FAVE play of the SR. This has the makings of a 2-0 Miss win – and a rather easy one at that. Miss is better at almost every position and it will be shown here. Ole Miss -120 to win the series and make <st1:City><st1lace>Omaha</st1lace></st1:City>

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Leans in the other 5 series:

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Florida -145 (FSU – Mike Martin’s Noles choke every year around this time – what makes anyone think this year will be any different)

<st1:City><st1lace>Fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> -300 (AT THIS PRICE – ASU has all of the value – but not the heart and with a SRO packed house at <st1:City><st1lace>Fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> we won’t let them lose)

Baylor -140 (Clemson – The ACC might think they are a great conference – but they aren’t)

Tulane -300 (Rice – NO WAY I lay this – but NO WAY I want Rice, either)

<st1lace><st1laceName>Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType>State</st1laceType></st1lace> -185 (USC – although too much wood here to lay)

 

[winkyduck]

quick follow-up on 1 thing

Miami starter Cesar Carrillo's record - i have seen things saying he has no losses, 1 loss or 2 losses. whatever the case may be - the fact is he rarely loses and with that being the case he is unbeatable

 

[LEYKIS101]

Lines moved sharply in every game you and Box are on the last few minutes. You two and the RX followers are causing some major line moves.



:drink:

 

[Omni]

Hey, thanks a lot. I'm not very knowledgable about College baseball, but I love nothing more than to get in on some action on some of the smaller known sports (where the lines move everywhere quickly and a few sharp guys can make a load of cash!). I threw a bit on each of these a few minutes after you posted, and I can tell by the line moves already that I've got some very good prices.

 

[surveyor]

Are you kidding me?

Miami from +120 to -125
Tenn from +103 to -150(-165 at pinn)

Thanks and good luck

 

[winkyduck]

Are you kidding me?

Miami from +120 to -125
Tenn from +103 to -150(-165 at pinn)

Thanks and good luck

tenn is still -110 to win the series. since tenn -150 is now the G1 price - you are better off taking Tenn -110 for the series - for if Tenn loses G1 - they are most likely DONE!

and as the poster at Fezzik's place said - Tenn w/Hochevar SHOULD be the heavy fave and opening him up +115 (which is what it opened at) was a bad line

 

[NYReb]

Winky,

Thanks for your excellents writeups and insights. This is about as well as it can be presented, and the best part is that most of the time you are absolutely right about the outcome.

Anyway, you know I am also on Ole Miss as my top game, as well as Tennessee and Miami. I have always respected you, but my respect grew when you picked Ole Miss over Texas. It was quite clear to me, knowing Ole Miss like you know Fullerton, that the Rebels were clearly the superior team even though Texas has the name and rep, and I was impressed that this was also obvious to you. I might think a little more of the Texas pitching staff than you do, because it's really been the pitching that has carried them through. Their records and statistics are fairly impressive. Yet the Ole Miss pitchers are at least as good, and the Rebels have an offense that the Longhorns are lacking this year. They have solid hitters throughout their lineup.

Ole Miss swept Arkansas on the road this season.

Ole Miss also won 3 of 4 from Florida this year, although the Gators idiotically continue to be ranked higher.

This is a very talented, highly motivated, and well coached team who are primed to show America how good they really are. I also predict Ole Miss in 2.

Take care, man, and best of luck on all your plays.

 

[winkyduck]

Adding a Saturday play

(Olympic) Clemson +120 @ Baylor -140: So far the ACC is showing basketball is its forte - NOT baseball and until the ACC shows me a reason to bet ON them - i will bet against them when i feel it is best to do so. I feel it is best to do so here - Baylor is a National Seed - Clemson is not. Clemson plays in the ACC - Baylor does not - so Baylor is my play - and the fact Baylor is the better team doesn't hurt, either

Baylor -140 (9A)

i KNOW i will be back with more plays after i wake up saturday morning

 

[NoPartials]

thank you in advance. Your effort is greatly appreciated

 

[winkyduck]

Adding 1 late play, too

(Olympic) Baylor -140 over Clemson to win the series. As I said above - the ACC is showing what a fraud conference they are and until they show me a reason to bet ON them - i will bet against them to go 0-fer-4 in the Super Regionals

Baylor -140 to beat Clemson and make Omaha

 

[res]

Good luck Winky. Had the Titans on the radio last night, was thinking about you considering how the game was going. Place must have been crazy after the way it ended. You slip that ump a mickey or a c note to get that call??? LOL

I look for the Titans to bury em today. All the best to you.

 

[winkyduck]

Adding a Saturday play

(Olympic) Clemson +120 @ Baylor -140: So far the ACC is showing basketball is its forte - NOT baseball and until the ACC shows me a reason to bet ON them - i will bet against them when i feel it is best to do so. I feel it is best to do so here - Baylor is a National Seed - Clemson is not. Clemson plays in the ACC - Baylor does not - so Baylor is my play - and the fact Baylor is the better team doesn't hurt, either

Baylor -140 (9A)

i KNOW i will be back with more plays after i wake up saturday morning

as tough a bad beat as it gets

TWO times Baylor had the bases loaded and NO ONE out and TWO times Baylor fails to get ONE run in a 4-2 loss

gambling is tough enough as is - but when you have the right side - and this happens - brutal

 

[bolivar]

Think McCormack wins for Baylor tomorrow and Clemson out of pitchers at that time and Monday a cake2walk.


WD - This third baseman for Nebraska is as good a player as I have seen in some time.

Thanks for the posts - We gonna be ok

 

[winkyduck]

One last SR play for this round

(Olympic) Ole Miss -125 over Texass: I have Ole Miss -130 to win this SR and I still believe Ole Miss is the better team in this regional and will show it. To me this is a nice price to lay with what is the better team.

Ole Miss -125 (4P on ESPN2)