Pulled off a 4-1 week last week and started this week with a win on Miami-OH on Wednesday night. Hopefully that was the start of another solid week.
Home team in caps.
OHIO STATE -3 Purdue
Buckeyes domination of Michigan State last week, gaining 182 yards rushing and allowing just 5 yards rushing sets them up in a 92-36-3 (4-1-1 TY) situation. No question both defenses are somewhat equal, although Ohio State's defense is just a little better, while the Purdue offense is slightly better. The big difference here is a Purdue team who has played only one tough team on the road this year (Michigan) and were blown out 3-31. They face an Ohio State team, who hasn't lost at home over the last 1+ years Iowa and Michigan State this year at home. Home/road dichotomy favors Ohio State here in a very solid situation. While both teams rate close, OSU does rate one level better than Purdue in my ratings and, at home, laying a short number, that's a good position to be in. OHIO STATE 27 PURDUE 17
LOUISVILLE -6.5 Memphis
I can't remember the last time I took a team where I didn't have a situation favoring them. I don't have any situations on either team here but simply like Memphis as the better team getting points. No question Louisville has the better offense in this game, averaging 6.7 yppl against teams allowing 5.7 yppl (Memphis is averaging 6.0 yppl against 5.8 yppl) but the better defense is definitely on the side of Memphis. Memphis is allowing just 4.4 yppl against 5.2 yppl, while Louisville is allowing 5.2 yppl against 4.9 yppl. While Louisville moves the ball very well with both, the run and the pass, Memphis defends both very well too. And, while Memphis runs the ball very well (4.9 ypr against 4.5 ypr), they will face a Louisville rush defense, that allows 3.9 ypr against 3.7 ypr. Final numbers suggest only a four point Louisville win, giving us value with Memphis. Value and the better defense make this a play for me. MEMPHIS 27 LOUISVILLE 23
Louisiana Tech -1 TULSA
Getting back on the Tulsa train this week. I really don't understand this line. Similar to the Memphis game, L. Tech definitely has the better offense, gaining 6.4 yppl against 5.4 yppl (Tulsa is averaging 5.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl) but the better defense is on the Tulsa side and it isn't close. Tulsa is allowing just 5.3 yppl against 5.5 yppl and they defend best, what L. Tech likes to do on offense, and that's the pass. Tulsa is allowing just 6.4 yps against 7.1 yps, while L. Tech is averaging 7.4 yps against 7.0 yps. L. Tech does run the ball well, averaging 5.0 ypr against 4.0 ypr and Tulsa does allow 4.7 ypr against 4.5 ypr but L. Tech just doesn't run the ball much. They are throwing the ball 58% of the time. For Tulsa, they are continuing to run the ball extremely well, averaging 5.0 ypr against 4.1 ypr and they'll face a L. Tech rush defense, which is allowing 4.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr. L. Tech doesn't defend the pass well either (8.2 yps against 6.8 yps) but Tulsa doesn't throw the ball that well, averaging 6.4 yps against 7.0 yps. Tulsa qualifies in a great revenge situation this week, which is 156-88-4 (7-3 TY). Tulsa has played terrific at home this year, winning every game but their game against Nevada, which they lost by seven points but also lost the turnover battle 1-5, out gaining Nevada 427 to 303 yards. For L. Tech, throw out their last game against SMU, whose offense is the worse offense in the country, they have allowed at least 34 points in five straight games and I don't see that changing in this game. Better team in a 'just-win' scenario. TULSA 34 LOUISIANA TECH 24
GEORGIA -7 Auburn
Well, I sure appreciate one college team qualifying in the scenario that Auburn qualifies in today, in what has become a weekly basis for me the past seven weeks now. I talk about this scenario each week because it has given us a winner in each of the last six weeks and is now 66-21-0 (6-0 TY). Last week it was Wisconsin (Minnesota), two weeks ago it was Utah (Air Force), three weeks ago it was Oregon State (Washington State), four weeks ago it was Washington (Oregon State), five weeks ago it was Florida (LSU) and six weeks ago it was Kansas State (Texas). And this week, we get back to the subset of this, which is an amazing 52-13-0 and an even better 45-9-0 since 1991. Both teams rate about equal on offense and defense, while Auburn has played a slightly tougher schedule. The situation is an automatic play, no matter what, and I'll ride it again as Auburn bounces back from last weeks disappointment. Georgia also qualifies in a negative 43-20-1 situation. AUBURN 21 GEORGIA 17
TEXAS -16 Texas Tech
No question the situation in the Auburn game has been golden this year, but the situation that applies in this game has been even better, in terms of net wins this year, and has been solid year after year for me. Texas qualifies in a home momentum situation this week, which is 129-52-3 (11-3 TY) and has won rather easily every week this year. I don't see much changing this week. TT throws for 8.3 yps but they are doing it against teams allowing 7.9 yps so their passing game is really just above average. This week they'll face a Texas pass defense, which is allowing just 6.7 yps against 7.5 yps and I don't see them being nearly as effective against Texas as they have been against some inferior teams they have faced this year. And that spells trouble because the TT defense has not been good this year, allowing 4.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 7.8 yps against 7.2 yps. Texas, who averages 5.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 8.7 yps against 6.8 yps, should be able to take advantage of this. Texas has struggled against the better teams they have faced this year but when they have faced inferior teams, they have dominated them, winning every one of those by at least 21 and by at least 24 at home. TT hasn't faced a quality defensive team yet but they did face Missouri, who has a very good pass defense, and were destroyed 31-62. I see similar things happening again this week. TEXAS 51 TEXAS TECH 20
CALIFORNIA -5.5 Washington
Washington qualifies in the same situation as Auburn, which is 6-0 this year and now 66-21-0 since 1988. California also qualifies in a negative 89-37-3 situation based on their loss last week. The California offense is slightly better than the Washington offense and both defenses are equally bad, but the situation that Washington qualifies in is an automatic play on situation and I'll take my chances getting the points. WASHINGTON 31 CALIFORNIA 30
WAKE FOREST -9.5 Connecticut
It's been a solid year for UCONN and they play their last game of the season on Saturday. UCONN has lost only three games this year and only one by more than 10 points, when they lost by 34 at Virginia Tech, which is explainable. They have already gone to NC State and lost by only seven and they match up well with WF in this game. UCONN rushes for 4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr and they'll face a WF rush defense, which is allowing 4.1 ypr against 3.7 ypr. The UCONN offense is actually slightly better than the WF offense (6.0 yppl against 5.8 yppl to 5.2 yppl against 5.4 yppl), while the biggest difference is the defenses, which favor UCONN. UCONN is allowing 4.9 yppl against 5.1 yppl, while WF is allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.3 yppl. UCONN sets up in a 111-68-2 fundamental rushing situation, and WF qualifies in a negative 89-37-2 situation based on their loss last week. Final numbers favor WF by nine points before accounting for the positive situations that UCONN is in. I like the better defense, who can rush the ball getting points. WAKE FOREST 30 CONNECTICUT 27
YTD 29-34-1 -20.90%
2% MIAMI -12.5 (WED. NIGHT)
2% OHIO STATE -3
2% MEMPHIS +6.5
2% TULSA +1
2% AUBURN +7
2% TEXAS -16
2% WASHINGTON +5.5
2% CONNECTICUT +9.5
Home team in caps.
OHIO STATE -3 Purdue
Buckeyes domination of Michigan State last week, gaining 182 yards rushing and allowing just 5 yards rushing sets them up in a 92-36-3 (4-1-1 TY) situation. No question both defenses are somewhat equal, although Ohio State's defense is just a little better, while the Purdue offense is slightly better. The big difference here is a Purdue team who has played only one tough team on the road this year (Michigan) and were blown out 3-31. They face an Ohio State team, who hasn't lost at home over the last 1+ years Iowa and Michigan State this year at home. Home/road dichotomy favors Ohio State here in a very solid situation. While both teams rate close, OSU does rate one level better than Purdue in my ratings and, at home, laying a short number, that's a good position to be in. OHIO STATE 27 PURDUE 17
LOUISVILLE -6.5 Memphis
I can't remember the last time I took a team where I didn't have a situation favoring them. I don't have any situations on either team here but simply like Memphis as the better team getting points. No question Louisville has the better offense in this game, averaging 6.7 yppl against teams allowing 5.7 yppl (Memphis is averaging 6.0 yppl against 5.8 yppl) but the better defense is definitely on the side of Memphis. Memphis is allowing just 4.4 yppl against 5.2 yppl, while Louisville is allowing 5.2 yppl against 4.9 yppl. While Louisville moves the ball very well with both, the run and the pass, Memphis defends both very well too. And, while Memphis runs the ball very well (4.9 ypr against 4.5 ypr), they will face a Louisville rush defense, that allows 3.9 ypr against 3.7 ypr. Final numbers suggest only a four point Louisville win, giving us value with Memphis. Value and the better defense make this a play for me. MEMPHIS 27 LOUISVILLE 23
Louisiana Tech -1 TULSA
Getting back on the Tulsa train this week. I really don't understand this line. Similar to the Memphis game, L. Tech definitely has the better offense, gaining 6.4 yppl against 5.4 yppl (Tulsa is averaging 5.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl) but the better defense is on the Tulsa side and it isn't close. Tulsa is allowing just 5.3 yppl against 5.5 yppl and they defend best, what L. Tech likes to do on offense, and that's the pass. Tulsa is allowing just 6.4 yps against 7.1 yps, while L. Tech is averaging 7.4 yps against 7.0 yps. L. Tech does run the ball well, averaging 5.0 ypr against 4.0 ypr and Tulsa does allow 4.7 ypr against 4.5 ypr but L. Tech just doesn't run the ball much. They are throwing the ball 58% of the time. For Tulsa, they are continuing to run the ball extremely well, averaging 5.0 ypr against 4.1 ypr and they'll face a L. Tech rush defense, which is allowing 4.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr. L. Tech doesn't defend the pass well either (8.2 yps against 6.8 yps) but Tulsa doesn't throw the ball that well, averaging 6.4 yps against 7.0 yps. Tulsa qualifies in a great revenge situation this week, which is 156-88-4 (7-3 TY). Tulsa has played terrific at home this year, winning every game but their game against Nevada, which they lost by seven points but also lost the turnover battle 1-5, out gaining Nevada 427 to 303 yards. For L. Tech, throw out their last game against SMU, whose offense is the worse offense in the country, they have allowed at least 34 points in five straight games and I don't see that changing in this game. Better team in a 'just-win' scenario. TULSA 34 LOUISIANA TECH 24
GEORGIA -7 Auburn
Well, I sure appreciate one college team qualifying in the scenario that Auburn qualifies in today, in what has become a weekly basis for me the past seven weeks now. I talk about this scenario each week because it has given us a winner in each of the last six weeks and is now 66-21-0 (6-0 TY). Last week it was Wisconsin (Minnesota), two weeks ago it was Utah (Air Force), three weeks ago it was Oregon State (Washington State), four weeks ago it was Washington (Oregon State), five weeks ago it was Florida (LSU) and six weeks ago it was Kansas State (Texas). And this week, we get back to the subset of this, which is an amazing 52-13-0 and an even better 45-9-0 since 1991. Both teams rate about equal on offense and defense, while Auburn has played a slightly tougher schedule. The situation is an automatic play, no matter what, and I'll ride it again as Auburn bounces back from last weeks disappointment. Georgia also qualifies in a negative 43-20-1 situation. AUBURN 21 GEORGIA 17
TEXAS -16 Texas Tech
No question the situation in the Auburn game has been golden this year, but the situation that applies in this game has been even better, in terms of net wins this year, and has been solid year after year for me. Texas qualifies in a home momentum situation this week, which is 129-52-3 (11-3 TY) and has won rather easily every week this year. I don't see much changing this week. TT throws for 8.3 yps but they are doing it against teams allowing 7.9 yps so their passing game is really just above average. This week they'll face a Texas pass defense, which is allowing just 6.7 yps against 7.5 yps and I don't see them being nearly as effective against Texas as they have been against some inferior teams they have faced this year. And that spells trouble because the TT defense has not been good this year, allowing 4.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 7.8 yps against 7.2 yps. Texas, who averages 5.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 8.7 yps against 6.8 yps, should be able to take advantage of this. Texas has struggled against the better teams they have faced this year but when they have faced inferior teams, they have dominated them, winning every one of those by at least 21 and by at least 24 at home. TT hasn't faced a quality defensive team yet but they did face Missouri, who has a very good pass defense, and were destroyed 31-62. I see similar things happening again this week. TEXAS 51 TEXAS TECH 20
CALIFORNIA -5.5 Washington
Washington qualifies in the same situation as Auburn, which is 6-0 this year and now 66-21-0 since 1988. California also qualifies in a negative 89-37-3 situation based on their loss last week. The California offense is slightly better than the Washington offense and both defenses are equally bad, but the situation that Washington qualifies in is an automatic play on situation and I'll take my chances getting the points. WASHINGTON 31 CALIFORNIA 30
WAKE FOREST -9.5 Connecticut
It's been a solid year for UCONN and they play their last game of the season on Saturday. UCONN has lost only three games this year and only one by more than 10 points, when they lost by 34 at Virginia Tech, which is explainable. They have already gone to NC State and lost by only seven and they match up well with WF in this game. UCONN rushes for 4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr and they'll face a WF rush defense, which is allowing 4.1 ypr against 3.7 ypr. The UCONN offense is actually slightly better than the WF offense (6.0 yppl against 5.8 yppl to 5.2 yppl against 5.4 yppl), while the biggest difference is the defenses, which favor UCONN. UCONN is allowing 4.9 yppl against 5.1 yppl, while WF is allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.3 yppl. UCONN sets up in a 111-68-2 fundamental rushing situation, and WF qualifies in a negative 89-37-2 situation based on their loss last week. Final numbers favor WF by nine points before accounting for the positive situations that UCONN is in. I like the better defense, who can rush the ball getting points. WAKE FOREST 30 CONNECTICUT 27
YTD 29-34-1 -20.90%
2% MIAMI -12.5 (WED. NIGHT)
2% OHIO STATE -3
2% MEMPHIS +6.5
2% TULSA +1
2% AUBURN +7
2% TEXAS -16
2% WASHINGTON +5.5
2% CONNECTICUT +9.5
