Cnotes Week # 12 College Football Rated Games - Trends - News !!

[CNOTES]

SBPI Rankings - Week 12


November 16, 2015




Here is the sixth College Football SportsBoss Power Index (SBPI) installment of the 2015 season.


Without further ado here are the Top 25 rankings through action on Saturday November 14.


The columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team statistically ranks across 128 teams in the FBS; we also included ESPN’s FPI & Sagarin’s rankings which can be used as a solid comparison tool followed by each team’s SOS adjusted RATING and RANK:


TOP 25 RATINGS


Record Raw Unit Ratings Rankings SOS Adjusted Numbers


Wins Loss Team Off Def Total FPI SAG Rating Rank


10 0 Clemson 10 7 1 5 3 286.2 1


9 1 Alabama 45 2 5 3 1 281.9 2


9 1 Oklahoma 7 19 3 1 2 263.5 3


8 2 Stanford 14 31 13 11 9 250.2 4


9 1 Florida 64 3 15 14 10 246.7 5


10 0 Iowa 27 12 8 29 16 241.4 6


10 0 Ohio State 30 9 6 4 4 239.9 7


9 1 Notre Dame 15 45 18 7 6 239.7 8


9 1 TCU 1 51 9 6 8 236.5 9


8 2 Michigan 56 6 13 17 12 236.0 10


6 4 Arkansas 2 82 35 21 24 231.8 11


7 3 USC 19 54 28 8 11 228.2 12


7 2 LSU 27 49 32 10 17 226.8 13


8 2 Utah 40 35 32 23 19 226.0 14


8 2 Florida State 30 30 20 16 15 222.7 15


10 0 Oklahoma State 20 35 19 13 7 222.0 16


7 3 Boise State 36 4 4 32 41 221.8 17


7 3 Georgia 66 10 23 18 23 221.7 18


7 3 Pittsburgh 43 35 37 38 30 220.8 19


9 1 North Carolina 5 52 16 15 14 218.6 20


7 3 Mississippi 23 52 32 9 13 218.1 21


9 1 Michigan State 29 33 21 22 21 217.3 22


7 3 Mississippi State 39 35 30 20 22 216.7 23


8 2 Wisconsin 68 4 16 24 20 214.9 24


6 4 Tennessee 45 49 47 12 18 214.2 25


Currently there is 85% correlation between SBPI ranking & wins & that correlation has increased each week.


Breakdown of Top 25 by Conference:


AAC: 1


ACC: 4


Big 10: 5


Big 12: 3


CUSA: 0


IND: 1


MAC: 0


MWC: 1


Pac-12: 3


SEC: 8


SUN: 0


Here are additional teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 25 but were ranked inside the Top 25 of at least one of the other two power rating sources I use for comparative purposes:


#29 UCLA (#19 FPI)


#31 Baylor (#2 FPI, #5 SAG)


#38 West Virginia (#25 FPI)


Here are the five lowest rated SBPI teams that have a winning record:


#105 New Mexico (faced 122nd toughest schedule)


#92 Tulsa (faced 93rd toughest schedule)


#90 Nevada (faced 120th toughest schedule)


#89 Georgia Southern (faced 116th toughest schedule)


#85 Buffalo (faced 113th toughest schedule)


Strength of each conference taking average RATING of ALL TEAMS:


SEC: 80.35


ACC: 78.80


IND: 78.64


Pac-12: 78.00


Big 10: 77.89


Big 12: 76.20


AAC: 71.88


MWC: 70.78


MAC: 70.30


CUSA: 66.60


SUN: 65.09




Next up let’s look at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams (excluding Notre Dame):


TOP 10 NON-POWER 5


Record Raw Unit Ratings Rankings SOS Adjusted Numbers


Wins Loss Conf. Team Off Def Total SAG Rating Rank


7 3 MWC Boise State 36 4 4 41 221.8 17


10 0 AAC Houston 7 25 6 27 211.5 26


7 3 IND BYU 60 25 41 48 204.3 30


8 2 AAC Memphis 7 79 39 36 201.8 32


7 3 MWC San Diego State 48 8 9 56 200.0 33


8 2 SB Appalachian State 5 18 2 63 199.6 35


7 3 MWC Air Force 25 16 9 69 196.7 39


6 4 AAC South Florida 52 35 46 66 195.2 40


8 2 AAC Temple 64 13 27 51 190.8 41


8 2 MAC Bowling Green 10 71 36 37 189.6 43


Here are the Bottom 10 teams:


BOTTOM 10 POWER 5


Record Raw Unit Ratings Rankings SOS Adjusted Numbers


Wins Loss Conf. Team Off Def Total SAG Rating Rank


1 10 MAC Eastern Michigan 92 118 114 127 86.1 119


3 7 MWC Fresno State 114 103 120 102 85.4 120


2 9 MAC Miami (Ohio) 121 90 119 124 85.2 121


2 8 P12 Oregon State 113 119 123 95 84.6 122


2 7 SB Texas State 87 128 121 120 75.3 123


1 9 CUSA North Texas 111 127 124 126 63.6 124


0 10 B12 Kansas 123 125 127 107 63.1 125


1 9 SB Louisiana-Monroe 126 112 124 122 61.3 126


2 9 MWC Hawai'i 128 107 126 118 54.0 127


0 10 AAC UCF 127 121 128 114 42.9 128


Lastly here are the Bottom 5 Power 5 conference teams:


BOTTOM 5 POWER 5


Record Raw Unit Ratings Rankings SOS Adjusted Numbers


Wins Loss Conf. Team Off Def Total SAG Rating Rank


4 6 SEC Kentucky 111 82 107 76 119.7 97


3 6 B12 Kansas State 107 103 116 55 114.7 100


2 8 B10 Purdue 116 93 117 92 106.7 106


2 8 P12 Oregon State 113 119 123 95 84.6 122


0 10 B12 Kansas 123 125 127 107 63.1 125

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 12


November 17, 2015


WEDNESDAY, NOV. 18


Matchup Skinny Edge


WESTERN MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WMU 16-7 last 23 vs. line, and if dog note Broncos 8-2 last ten in role, 10-3 last 13 as visiting dog. Broncs no SU wins in series since 2008, however. NIU has covered last five and 8 of last 9 this season.
Slight to NIU, based on series trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at KENT STATE
CMU 14-2 vs. line last sixteen away from home.
CMU, based on Chip road trends.




THURSDAY, NOV. 19


Matchup Skinny Edge


EAST CAROLINA at UCF
UCF no covers in four home games this season, 2-9 last 11 on board since late 2014. No covers last four TY for ECU, however.
Slight to ECU, based on UCF woes.


ULM at TEXAS STATE
Franchione 1-6 vs. line last seven TY. ULM also 1-6 vs. line last seven TY. Note dog team has covered last two in series.
Slight to ULM, based on recent series dog trend.


FRIDAY, NOV. 20


Matchup Skinny Edge


CINCINNATI at SOUTH FLORIDA
Taggart 8-2 vs. line this season and has covered all five in Tampa. Home team won and covered last three in series.
Slight to USF, based on team and series trends.


AIR FORCE at BOISE STATE
Force has covered last three in series and pulled upset at Falcon Stadium LY. Calhoun 5-3 as dog since LY. Broncos only 4-6 vs. spread last ten on blue carpet.
Air Force, based on series trends.


SATURDAY, NOV. 21


Matchup Skinny Edge


LOUISVILLE at PITT
Petrino has dropped 3 of last 5 vs. spread away from Papa John's. Cards "under" 14-8 since LY for Petrino. Panthers 0-4 vs. spread at Heinz Field TY.
Slight to 'Ville, based on recent Pitt home woes.


BUFFALO at AKRON
Buff no covers last three overall TY and no covers last three on MAC trail for Leipold. Also 1-5 vs. spread last six on MAC trail. Buff routed Bowden 55-24 LY. Zips only 2-6-1 last nine vs. line at InfoCision.
Slight to Buffalo, based on extended Zip home woes.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA
Richt 3-7 vs. line last ten in reg. season, also "under" 8-3 last eleven. GS 5-2 vs. line last 7 TY.
GSU, based on team trends.


RUTGERS at ARMY
Army just 2-5 last seven vs. line at Michie. 'Gers no covers last 4 or 7 of last 9 TY, 1-3 vs. spread away TY after good road marks previous.
Slight to Army, based on recent trends.


CHARLOTTE at KENTUCKY
Stoops no covers last six TY as UK just 2-8 vs. spread in 2015, 3-12-1 last 16 since mid 2014. Though Stoops is 6-2 as chalk since 2013 and 6-2-1 last nine vs. spread against non-SEC.
Slight to UK, based on team trends.


INDIANA at MARYLAND
Locksley hard-to-believe 3-0-1 vs. line for Terps, also 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 TY . IU 0-6 SU last 6, "over" 13-5 last 18 since mid 2014. Terps "over" 7-4-1 last 12.
Maryland and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


MIAMI-OHIO at UMASS (McGuirk Stadium)
UMass 3-9 last 12 on board. RedHawks are 10-6-1 last 17 on board for Chuck Martin, 5-1 last six as MAC road dog. RedHawks end their season with this game!
Miami-O, based on team trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at KANSAS
Holgorsen 7-12 last 19 overall vs. number. Also no covers last four away from Morgantown. Though KU just 3-9 last 12 on board. Jayhawks have covered last two in series!
Slight to KU, based on recent series trends.


SOUTH ALABAMA at GEORGIA STATE
Note the road team is 8-0-1 vs. line in GSU games this season! Though Jags only 2-6 vs. line TY and 4-11-1 last 16 on board.
Slight to USA, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at UCONN
Cougs 4-0 vs. line away TY, 14-0-1 vs. spread last 15 as visitor! Also 25-12-1 last 38 vs. spread overall. Diaco 3-9 vs. line at Rentsch since LY.
UH, based on team trends.


WAKE FOREST at CLEMSON
Wake 2-6 vs. line last eight away. Dabo 7-3-2 last 12 on board.
Clemson, based on team trends.


WKU at FIU
Ron Turner 8-4 vs. line last 12 as host and 15-9 last 24 vs. spread since late 2013. He's 4-3 last seven as home dog and 11-6 last 17 as dog overall. Tops only 3-6-1 vs. spread last 10 away from home.
FIU, based on team trends.


LSU at OLE MISS
Dog has covered last three in series. But LSU 1-4 last five as dog. Hugh Freeze 40-20-1 vs. spread since 2011.
Ole Miss, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNT has covered 4 of 5 for Canales but 2-10 last 12 as road dog since LY. Stockstill 8-3 vs. number last 11 at Murfreesboro vs. C-USA foes.
MTSU, based on team trends.


ILLINOIS at MINNESOTA
Gophers 3-0 vs. line for Claeys and 9-1 vs. spread for him since 2013 (counting his fill-in games for Kill in 2013). Gophers have won and covered 3 of last 4 in series but lost 28-24 at Champaign-Urbana LY. Illini 4-13 last 17 as dog away from home (1-2 TY).
Minnesota, based on team trends.


MEMPHIS at TEMPLE
Rhule has covered last two years vs. Fuente. Tigers only 4-4-1 vs. line TY while Owls have covered 7 of 9. Memphis 8-3-1 "over" last 12.
Slight to Temple, based on team and series trends.


DUKE at VIRGINIA
Cutcliffe has won and covered last three and 6 of 7 vs. Cavs since arriving at Durham in 2008, but 0-3 SU and vs. line last 3 TY. Cavs are 13-3-1 last 17 as dog for Mike London, 6-1 last 7 as home dog.
UVa, based on recent trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH
Final home game for Beamer. He's only 3-8 vs. line last 11 at Lane Stadium. But he has won and covered last two years vs. Fedora. Heels 4-1 vs. line last five on ACC trail.
Slight to UNC, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at WISCONSIN
Pat Fitz 10-5 last 15 as visiting dog. Paul Chryst only 5-5 vs. line TY and was almost .500 vs. line (18-17) at Pitt as well.
NU, based on Fitzgerald road dog marks.


SYRACUSE at NC STATE
NCS on 9-4 spread streak since late 2014 and 7-1 last 8 as chalk. Cuse 1-5 last six vs. number on road.
NCS, based on team trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at ARKANSAS
Dan Mullen has won last three SU vs. Hogs and is 7-2 vs. spread last nine as visitor. If Mullen a dog note 8-2 mark last ten in role. Bielema has covered 5 of last 6 TY though just 2-3 vs. spread as host TY.
MSU, especially if dog, based on team and series trends.


FRESNO STATE at BYU
Fresno no wins or covers five of last six away and 3-8 last 11 on board. Cougs 5-1 vs. spread last six at Provo.
BYU, based on team trends.


NAVY at TULSA
Tulsa great vs. line on road lately but not so much as home (1-4 TY, 2-8 last 10). Mids 8-2 vs. line last nine on board, 10-4 last 14, and 6-1 as chalk TY.
Navy, based on team trends.


GEORGIA TECH at MIAMI-FLA
Prior to 2014 this had been a bad matchup for GT, as Canes had won and covered five straight in series. Jackets now on 1-7 SU and spread skid.
Miami, based on team and series trends.


TENNESSEE at MISSOURI
Mizzou has won and covered all three vs. Vols since entering SEC in 2012. But Tigers just 3-7 vs. line TY. Butch 4-1 vs. spread last five away from Knoxville, 6-3 last nine.
UT, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA STATE
Surging OSU 5-2-1 last eight on board. Gundy 6-1 SU and vs. line against Briles since 2008. Baylor only 5-9 last 14 on board.
OSU, based on series trends.


MICHIGAN STATE at OHIO STATE
These teams have split SU and vs. spread past four seasons. Spartans only 2-7-1 vs. line in 2015 but Dantonio 10-1 last 11 as dog. Urban only 3-6 vs. spread last nine TY himself and 1-5 vs. spread at big horseshoe in 2015.
MSU, based on team trends.


TCU at OKLAHOMA
Frogs 1-4 vs. spread on road TY and 1-6 vs. number last seven as visitor. But if Patterson a dog note 5-2 mark last seven in role. Stoops 4-1 vs. line in Norman TY.
OU, based on recent trends.


MICHIGAN at PENN STATE
Home team is 13-4 vs. spread last 17 Penn State games under Franklin, though most of that due to poor Penn State road marks (Franklin 6-4 vs. line last 10 as host). Franklin 6-12 last 18 vs. spread in reg season. Harbaugh has covered 5 of last 9 TY.
Slight to Michigan, based on team trends.


ODU at SOUTHERN MISS
ODU improving but still just 2-8 vs. line this season. USM 8-2 vs. spread in 2015.
USM, based on recent trends.


ARIZONA at ARIZONA STATE
Territorial Cup! Teams have split last eight SU. ASU only 3-7 vs. line TY. Cats "over" 8-2 this season. Last three and four of last five "over" in series.
Slight to Arizona and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


IOWA STATE at KANSAS STATE
Competitive series, 2-2-1 last five vs. spread. Though Cyclones just 2-5-1 vs. line last 8 away. Bill Snyder 0-2 as home chalk TY but was 14-6 in role previous three seasons.
Slight to KSU, based on Snyder trends.


NEVADA at UTAH STATE
Pack has covered 6 of last 8 TY and Polian 8-2 vs. points last 10 as visitor. Utags have covered last three at Logan, though just 5-5 vs. spread at Romney since LY.
Nevada, based on Wolf Pack road mark.


CAL at STANFORD
Big Game! Cal has faded again, Bears just 2-3 vs. spread away TY after 5-0 mark vs. spread in role last season. Tree has covered last three and won last five Big Games SU.
Stanford, based on team and recent Big Game trends.


TULANE at SMU
No covers last 4 or 5 of last 6 TY for SMU, no covers last 4 at home. Wave has covered last 4 of 6 of last 8 TY.
Tulane, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at ULL
NMSU has covered last 2, 3 of 4, and 4 of 6, not bad after the bad slump prior. Cajuns no covers last four and just 1-4-1 vs. spread last six this season.
Slight to NMSU, based on team and series road trends.


COLORADO STATE at NEW MEXICO
McElwain was 3-0 SU and vs. line against Davie past three years but Rams just 1-5 vs. spread last six away from Fort Collins. Lobos 8-4 last 12 as dog overall.
UNM, based on recent trends.

WASHINGTON at OREGON STATE
Beavs just 2-8 vs. line TY, 4-18 since 2014. Just 2-8 last 10 vs. line at Corvallis. Huskies won and covered last three years vs. Riley. UW "under" 20-5 last 25.
UW and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


RICE at UTSA
Owls slumping with no covers last four or 5 of last 6 but Bailiff still 8-4 last 12 vs. spread away from home. Owls have won and covered last three vs. Coker. UTSA just 6-13-1 last 20 on board.
Rice, based on team and series trends.


UCLA at UTAH
Mora 14-8 vs. spread as pure visitor since 2012 and is 2-1 SU vs. Whittingham, though Utes did win LY at Rose Bowl. Utes just 2-5 vs. line last seven in SLC.
Slight to UCLA, based on team trends.


TEXAS A&M at VANDERBILT
Derek Mason surprising 12-6-1 vs. line last 19 on board, and have covered 5 of last 6 as SEC host. Ags no covers last five TY and just 3-10 last 13 vs. spread in SEC games.
Vandy, based on team trends.


COLORADO at WASHINGTON STATE
Buffs have covered 3 of last 4 TY, but WSU has covered last 7 and 8 of last 9 TY.
Slight to WSU, based on recent trends.


FAU at FLORIDA
McElwain 28-10-1 vs. line last 38 on board at CSU and Florida but note FAU 18-4 vs. points last 22 away!
Slight to FAU, based on team trends.


IDAHO at AUBURN
Vandals are 9-1 as visiting dog since LY! Malzahn 2-13 last 15 on board since mid 2014.
Idaho, based on team trends.


NOTRE DAME at BOSTON COLLEGE (at Fenway Park)
Irish 7-3-1 last 11 vs. line since late LY, rock-ribbed BC just 2-7-1 its last 10 on board. Though Eagles and have covered 9 of last 12 meetings!
Slight to ND, based on recent trends.


USC at OREGON
Trojans just 8-11 last 19 on board (5-5 TY) and 3-7 last ten as dog. Ducks have won and covered 3 of last 4 meetings, though no meetings since 2012. Ducks have covered 4 straight and 5 of last 6 TY.
Oregon, based on team trends.


LA TECH at UTEP
LT 10-4 vs. line last 14 away from Ruston and 11-6 last 17 as chalk. Skip 2-0 SU and vs. line against Sean Kugler.
La Tech, based on team trends.


PURDUE at IOWA
Ferentz only 2-4 vs. line at Iowa City TY despite unbeaten SU mark. Boilermakers a startling 7-1 vs. number their last eight on Big Ten road!
Slight to Purdue, based on recent Big Ten road dog mark.


SAN DIEGO STATE at UNLV
Rebs have covered last three in series but just 3-9 last 12 vs. spread as host. Aztecs have won and covered six straight TY.
Slight to SDSU, based on recent trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at HAWAII
UH 1-8 vs. line last nine TY and has dropped 9 of last 10 vs. line at Aloha Stadium vs. MW foes.
SJSU, based on team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

ACC Report - Week 12


November 17, 2015


2015 ACC STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Boston College 3-7 0-7 4-5-1 2-8


Clemson 10-0 7-0 5-5 6-4


Duke 6-4 3-3 5-5 3-7


Florida State 8-2 6-2 6-4 3-7


Georgia Tech 3-7 1-6 3-7 5-5


Louisville 6-4 5-2 5-5 4-5-1


Miami (Fla.) 6-4 3-3 5-5 5-5


North Carolina 9-1 6-0 7-3 5-5


North Carolina State 6-4 2-4 6-4 4-6


Pittsburgh 7-3 5-1 5-5 4-5-1


Syracuse 3-7 1-5 6-4 9-1


Virginia 3-7 2-4 6-3-1 5-4-1


Virginia Tech 5-5 3-3 5-5 5-5


Wake Forest 3-7 1-5 5-5 4-5-1




North Carolina at Virginia Tech (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Tar Heels roll into Blacksburg looking to keep their championship hopes alive. With a win, they clinch the Coastal Division title and a spot in the ACC Championship Game. The Tar Heels have covered five of their past six conference tilts, and they're 5-2 ATS in their past seven road games. And they have had tremendous success building upon success, going 12-5 ATS in their past 17 games following a cover in the previous week. The outlook is good for the Tar Heels to continue their success, as the road team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series, and the favorite has covered in four of the past five. The Hokies are also 3-7 ATS in their past 10 against teams with a winning record, and they have followed up a cover by going 6-15 ATS in their next game. The under is also an overwhelming trend here, going 5-1 in UNC's past six road games and 5-1 in Virginia Tech's past six overall. The under is also 7-1 in the past eight meetings in this series, and 5-0 in the past five meetings in Blacksburg.


Syracuse at North Carolina State (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
The Orange haven't been winning games, coming out on the winning side just three times in 10 games. But, their games have generally been competitive, and usually high scoring. The Orange have covered four of their past five against teams with a winning record, although they're just 1-5 ATS in their past six games on the road. N.C. State has been covering, regardless of the venue, going 9-4 ATS in their past 13 overall, and 10-4 ATS in their past 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. As mentioned, the over is prevalent in Syracuse games, going 9-1 in 10 games this season. However, the under is 18-7-1 in their past 26 road games against a team with a winning home record. The under is 7-2 in N.C. State's past nine against teams with a losing overall record, and 5-2 in their past seven ACC games. The underdog has cashed in each of the past four meetings in this series.


Georgia Tech at Miami-Florida (ESPN3, 12:30p.m. ET)
Miami is licking its wounds once again after getting spanked at North Carolina last weekend, allowing 59 points in the process. This game opened with Miami as a one-point favorite, and Georgia Tech money quickly poured in to make it a pick 'em, or have Georgia Tech favored slightly at some shops. It's a curious line considering Ga. Tech is just 3-7 overall, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight games overall, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven ACC games and 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games against a team with a winning home record. Of course, Miami hasn't been hot, either, going 1-6 ATS in their past seven against losing teams, and just 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series, with the Yellow Jackets 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings.


Wake Forest at Clemson (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
This game is shaping up like a slaughter, but the Demon Deacons could have a couple of things on their side. Clemson already has sewn up a spot in the ACC Championship game, and they could be looking ahead to their rivalry game with South Carolina. Of course, the Tigers just so happen to be No. 1 in the College Football Playoff standings, so they cannot afford to take any of their games lightly. Still, it's a tricky spot for the Tigers as a 30-point favorite. Of course, Wake is just 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games, and 8-18 ATS in their past 26 road games against a team with a winning home record. Clemson is just 3-9 ATS in their past 12 ACC games, and 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a losing record. The home team has dominated the series lately, going 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings.


Duke at Virginia (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)
Duke has been in freefall lately, losers of three straight since their controversial lateral-filled kickoff return for score in the loss against Miami. Duke is just 1-4 ATS in their past five ACC games, although they have still managed to cover six of their past seven on the road. Of course, that one loss is their most recent road game, a 66-31 spanking in Chapel Hill against the rival Tar Heels two weeks ago. Virginia isn't winning a lot of games, but they're keeping it close. The Cavs have covered four in a row, and they're 4-0 ATS in their past four ACC games, but they're just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven at Scott Stadium against teams with a winning road record. Duke is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, while the under has connected in five of the past six meetings in Charlottesville.


Louisville at Pittsburgh (ESPNews, 3:45 p.m.)
Louisville started off super slow, but they rebounded nicely to win four in a row and six of the past seven to become bowl eligible after an 0-3 SU start. The Cardinals might be winning, but they're just 1-4 ATS over their past five after going 4-1 ATS in their past five. Needless to say, it's been a strange season for head coach Bobby Petrino's bunch. Pitt was 6-1 SU until their loss to North Carolina Oct. 29, and they have won two of the past three games. The Panthers are also 1-3 ATS in the past four games while the 'under' has hit in three of those four outings, too. The trends are not helpful, as Pitt is 0-5 ATS in their past five home games. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, but the road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. And the Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings overall.


Boston College at Notre Dame (NBCSN, 7:30 p.m.)
Over the years Boston College has been a thorn in the side of Notre Dame, even when they haven't had their best team. The Eagles could be very dangerous in this one, as they sport one of the country's top defensive units, although their offense is in shambles. This game will be played at Fenway Park in Boston, and that doesn't bode well for the Eagles, either. They're 1-5 ATS in their past six neutral-site games. Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS in their past eight, although they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a losing record. B.C. has covered four of the past five, with the underdog cashing in eight of the past 10. The under is a perfect 6-0 in the past six meetings, too, although the over is 11-5 in Notre Dame's past 16.


Other Games
Chattanooga at Florida State (ESPN3, 3:00 p.m.)

 

[igglez]

If Iowa played in the sec, PAC 12, big 12, acc, they'd have 3-4 losses, they didn't even have to play any if the top teams in the big 10. if they get in, it'll be a travesty, and they'll get throttled by any team they play. It'll show how weak the big ten really is.

 

[CNOTES]

Big 12 Report - Week 12


November 18, 2015


2015 BIG 12 STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Baylor 8-1 5-1 4-4 6-3


Iowa State 3-7 2-5 5-4-1 3-6-1


Kansas 0-10 0-7 3-7 5-5


Kansas State 3-6 0-6 4-5 5-4


Oklahoma 9-1 6-1 8-2 7-3


Oklahoma State 10-0 7-0 6-4 6-4


Texas 4-6 3-4 4-6 4-6


Texas Christian 9-1 6-1 4-6 5-5


Texas Tech 6-5 3-5 6-4-1 8-3


West Virginia 5-4 2-4 3-6 3-6




West Virginia at Kansas (NO TV, 12:00 p.m. ET)
West Virginia heads to Lawrence to take on winless Kansas, and they're favored by four touchdowns. After last week's 23-17 near-miss against Texas Christian, Kansas really received a lot of respect from around the conference for continuing the play hard despite their winless record. They easily covered a 46 1/2-point number, and they're 2-3 ATS over the past five. Kansas has managed to scored at least 17 points in three of their past five games, and they have an impressive running back in Ke'aun Kinner, who can be a difference maker when the Jayhawks aren't taken out of the game early and forced to abandon the run. West Virginia is 0-3 SU/ATS in three road games, but those games were also at Oklahoma, at Baylor and at TCU, all teams highly ranked and not winless like KU.


Iowa State at Kansas State (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Iowa State is already ineligible for a bowl after losing a seventh game last weekend in heartbreaking fashion against Oklahoma State. They'd love to help K-State join them in the loser's lounge by hanging the Wildcats a seventh loss. The Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against teams with a losing record, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 road games agianst a team with a losing home mark. K-State is 8-3 ATS in their past 11 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, and the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. However, the underdog is also 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.


Baylor at Oklahoma State (FOX, 7:30 p.m. ET)
In the first of two marquee games in the Big 12, the Bears look to get back into the playoff picture by ruining Oklahoma State's undefeated season. The Cowboys opened as a one-point favorite, but the line quickly changed to a pick 'em early in the week.


Baylor is 15-6 ATS in their past 21 against teams with a winning overall record, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. However, the Bears looked human in last week's loss against Oklahoma, and the coaching staff needs to kick the training wheels off and unleash freshman QB Jarrett Stidham.


OK State averted disaster with a fourth quarter comeback at Iowa State, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat and keeping their national championship aspirations alive. OK State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning record, and 17-8 ATS in their past 25 games in Stillwater. Baylor needs to overcome some tough history if they're to cover in this one, as OK State is 13-3 ATS in their past 16 against Baylor, including 8-0 ATS in the past eight in Stillwater. The favorite has cashed in 12 of the past 16 in this series. If you're looking to the total, the over is the overwhelming trend for both sides recently, but the under is actually 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings in this series.




Texas Christian at Oklahoma (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
TCU was obviously looking ahead to this matchup last weekend, as they were nearly upset at home by a winless Kansas team. The Horned Frogs survived 23-17, but left plenty wondering aloud about their chances in this game. After all, TCU is just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games, and 1-5 ATS in their past six road outings against a team with a winning home record.


Oklahoma might be playing better than anyone in the country over the past month, and they flexed a little muscle in their win at Baylor last weekend, handing the Bears their first loss of the season. Oklahoma has covered five in a row, each of their past four against teams with a winning record and four of their past five at home. However, they are just 1-4 ATS in their past five at home against teams with a winning road record.


TCU has recent series trends on their side, as the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, and TCU is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series. For those playing totals, the over is 4-0 in Oklahoma's past four at home, and 24-8-1 in their past 33 conference tilts. The over is 8-3 in the past 11 road games for TCU, and 5-1 in their past six against teams with a winning record. Of course, the under is 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series.


Teams on a bye
Texas, Texas Tech

 

[CNOTES]

No. 11 TCU hurting with QB Boykin, WR Doctson questionable
November 17, 2015


FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) Things have gotten twisted for No. 11 TCU - as in the right ankle of dual-threat quarterback Trevone Boykin and the left wrist of star receiver Josh Doctson.


Both are hurting as the defending Big 12 co-champion Horned Frogs (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) prepare to play at No. 7 Oklahoma (9-1, 6-1). Coach Gary Patterson said Tuesday that both are questionable for the game.


''We're going to find out Saturday if they play,'' Patterson said after repeated inquiries about the status of the offensive standouts during his weekly news conference. ''I told you they're questionable and I'll know by Thursday.''


On a run in Saturday's home game against Kansas, Boykin awkwardly turned his right ankle after planting his foot and didn't play after halftime.


''He's better right now than he was Sunday,'' Patterson said of Boykin, the Big 12 leader with 402 total yards per game.


Doctson was back on the field Saturday, but had only one reception for 12 yards a week after injuring his wrist on a catch in TCU's loss at Oklahoma State on Nov. 7. A Cowboys defender fell on his arm after Doctson planted his hand on the turf while going down.


The Frogs held on for a 23-17 victory over the winless and seven-touchdown underdog Jayhawks. The only offensive touchdown came on the lone completed pass by redshirt freshman Foster Sawyer, the likely starting quarterback if Boykin can't play.


''There's not any quit. Somebody said we didn't have any emotion,'' Patterson said. ''I think we had a letdown because of senior day, I think a little bit of hangover from Oklahoma State. As the game went on, (the players) became more emotional and had to overcome Trevone and Doctson not being in a whole lot.''


While the Big 12 is no longer declaring co-champions, TCU still has a chance to claim another title if it wins its last two games and Oklahoma State loses its last two - both at home, vs. No. 10 Baylor and then the Sooners.


Patterson said Boykin and Doctson should both be full strength when TCU plays its bowl game. The Frogs' regular season finale is at home against Baylor the night after Thanksgiving.


Doctson was expected to see another specialist this week to determine if anything more needs to be done for his wrist. The NFL prospect wore a protective wrap Saturday, but never was able to get into any kind of rhythm.


Before getting hurt, Doctson had at least 129 yards receiving with multiple touchdowns in each of the six previous games. Doctson has 79 catches for a national-best 1,337 yards with 14 touchdowns, but no scores the past two weeks.


''The biggest thing for him is he just wants to play really well. It's one of those things where you got to get used to it. So we'll decide what the pros and cons of doing that,'' Patterson said. ''If you go and permanently fix it, which it needs at some point in time to be done, then he needs some weeks and then he can be back.''

 

[CNOTES]

UCLA's Pac-12 goals still in grasp, even after Wash St loss
November 18, 2015


LOS ANGELES (AP) Although the Pac-12's vicious internal competition has all but eliminated the conference from the College Football Playoff chase, UCLA is still in a prime position in its own playoff race.


Even after a home loss to Washington State last weekend, regular season-ending wins over No. 18 Utah and No. 22 Southern California would put the Bruins into the Pac-12 title game for a chance at its first conference title and Rose Bowl berth in 16 years.


''The way we see it is we're in the quarterfinals,'' defensive line coach Angus McClure said. ''You got to win in the quarterfinals to get to the semifinals. Win the semifinals and you're in the championship game, that's the way we are looking at it as a program.''


The Utes' double-overtime loss at Arizona essentially rendered UCLA's last-minute 31-27 loss to the Cougars irrelevant in the race for the Pac-12 South. Running back Paul Perkins admitted keeping an eye on the scoreboard Saturday night to see what was happening with Utah, and the redshirt junior was glad for the reprieve.


''Us as players, we're not going to admit it - well, we will - we always look at the scores and see what is going on around college football,'' Perkins said. ''Once we lost, we realized we still had a mulligan. Our goal is still within our grasp.''


Whether UCLA can reach it is a question that pits the program's road dominance under coach Jim Mora against its occasionally overwhelming tendency to self-destruct. With a 16-5 road record in Mora's four seasons, winning nine of its last 10 games away from the Rose Bowl, UCLA knows how to perform away from its scenic home stadium.


''I personally thrive off of a hostile environment,'' center Jake Brendel said.


Said Perkins: ''We just go out there with the mentality that the whole world is against us.''


But that same mentality too often forces UCLA to overcome a litany of self-inflicted mistakes, something it could not do against Washington State. There were punts of 29 and 0 yards, two lost fumbles, 13 penalties for 75 yards and only one touchdown in five trips to the red zone. The latter two issues were clearly linked, Perkins said.


Consecutive false starts forced UCLA to settle for a 22-yard field goal on its first drive, and a delay of game penalty helped scuttle another red-zone possession in the fourth quarter.


''We had to stay on track,'' Perkins said. ''We can't get out of whack, can't get penalties. We definitely need those (touchdowns) against a good Utah team.''


After committing seven false starts at Oregon State, there were six more flags for early movement against Washington State. Offensive lineman Caleb Benenoch said those issues should be resolved by being more disciplined.


''It's simple. It's on us,'' Benenoch said. ''We just got to handle our business. Can't worry about what anyone else does, what the defensive line does, what gets called and what doesn't. We just have to do our job.''


Brendan believes the use of a silent count against Utah and USC should help cut down on those issues, seemingly another benefit of playing on the road. In a de facto playoff, UCLA needs every edge it can get.

 

[CNOTES]

College Football Trend Report


W MICHIGAN (6 - 4) at N ILLINOIS (7 - 3) - 11/18/2015, 8:00 PM


Top Trends for this game.
W MICHIGAN is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 1-1 against the spread versus W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 2-0 straight up against W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




C MICHIGAN (5 - 5) at KENT ST (3 - 7) - 11/18/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
C MICHIGAN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[CNOTES]

Western Michigan
@
Northern Illinois
Game 305-306
November 18, 2015 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating: Western Michigan
92.619
Northern Illinois
90.813
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Western Michigan
by 2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Northern Illinois
by 3
61
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan
(+3); Over






Central Michigan
@
Kent State
Game 307-308
November 18, 2015 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating: Central Michigan
78.948
Kent State
70.888
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Central Michigan
by 8
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Central Michigan
by 11
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kent State
(+11); Over

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday's six-pack


NFL trends with Week 11 around the corner........


-- Dallas covered eight of their last 12 road games.


-- Lions covered twice in their last twelve games.


-- Colts covered eight of last ten post-bye games.


-- 49ers are 2-7-1 vs spread in their last ten post-bye games.


-- Arizona is 15-6 against spread in its last 21 games overall.


-- Minnesota covered its last eight games.




Wednesday's List of 13: Thoughts from the basketball marathon


13) If any of this doesn't make sense, its because I skipped sleep last night to watch a lot of college basketball. Think I slept for an hour of the Dayton game, which was a terrible game-- Alabama is awful. Here are some of my thoughts from the first five days of the college basketball season.


12) Kentucky 74, Duke 63-- Watching basketball without sound can be revealing; I watched about half of this game while having dinner at a bar. You see contact around the basket and you wait for the action to stop and it doesn't-- Duke was KILLING the Kentucky guys around the basket but very few fouls were called, then Coach K is bitching at a ref during a TV timeout. Duke took 23 FTs, Kentucky 18.


11) The new rules have been a huge success so far; they've promoted a much more free-wheeling style of play-- lot less flopping in the lane, which was needed. Tired of seeing inferior players flopping to draw fouls on guys they can't guard otherwise.


10) Maryland 75, Georgetown 71-- Hoyas led by 7 in second half but Terps came on down stretch, in renewal of local rivalry that hadn't been played in years. I give credit to JTIII for playing this game; his dad can't agree with it. When he coached the Hoyas, they almost never played a quality opponent in their pre-conference schedule.


9) Hawai'i 76, Nevada 75-- This was the best game I've seen this week; too bad it was a 4am tipoff here at Armadillo World HQ. Rainbows led by 12 at half, but Nevada PG Marqueze Coleman scored 32 points in the second half and teams traded hoops in last few minutes, the lead changing with every basket. Nevada is going to be a force in the Mountain West in years to come, with Eric Musselman on the bench.


8) ESPN under-utilizes analyst Adrian Branch, the former Maryland star who is easy to listen to and says some good stuff- he did the game in Hawai'i. He told a story about how his parents live near Washington DC-- they TIVO'd the game instead of staying up until 6am to hear their son broadcast it live. He was laughing about it.


7) Oklahoma 84, Memphis 78-- Sooners made 11-26 from arc; this is solid road win for them, against an athletic, improved Memphis team. Dedric Lawson had 22 points, 15 rebounds for Memphis-- his brother is also on the team and his dad is an assistant coach. As well as young Lawson played, they should give his mom a job, too.


6) Tulsa 77, Wichita State 67-- Good upset for everyone in the AAC. Frank Haith has been coach at Miami/Missouri; not sure why he went from Mizzou to Tulsa, but his teams usually do pretty well.


5) East Tennessee State 103, Green Bay 90-- Many years ago, before the basketball marathon started, we used to joke that teams would play at 3am if TV wanted them to, because teams love to be on TV. We thought this was very funny.


Fast forward to 2015 and this game was a 6am tipoff; Buccaneers had lot of energy, are lot more athletic than Green Bay and they seem to argue with each other a lot on the court, but I'll say this-- they had a 2-on-0 break one time and guy with the ball passed it to his teammate, so he could dunk it. Thats usually a sign of good team chemistry.


4) Michigan State 79, Kansas 73-- Tom Izzo did at least three interviews during this game, one at halftime, two while the clock was running. Think he'd do that during Big 14 league play? Its all about recruiting. This turned out to be a really good game, with two of the all-time great coaches. Seemed more like March than November.


Kansas has a kid named Check Diallo who is a very bright kid from another country but he hasn't been cleared by the NCAA yet-- it makes no sense. The kid is obviously bright; he knows several languages-- let him play already.


3) Long Beach State 66, BYU 65-- Announcers kept praising Long Beach for playing a hard non-league schedule; they do it because they get guarantee money to play (lose) games at Arizona-Duke-Oregon with lot of that money going to keep coach Monson from leaving Long Beach for greener pa$ture$.


If they let Monson walk and hired a younger coach who made maybe 1/3 as much $$$, they wouldn't have to schedule automatic losses and their players might have more confidence. I'm wondering how it would affect their recruiting-- its not like Monson is John Wooden or Dean Smith-- would they still recruit well with a lesser schedule in November and December?


If I'm paying Monson $600K to coach in the Big West, I'd expect more league titles than he has been producing, I guess thats my main point.


2) I'm 55 so I remember the way basketball used to be; its funny now that players have to call all live-ball timeouts, coaches have to get the players' attention for them to call timeouts. Kids are used to the coach bailing them out with timeouts; now they'll have to do it themselves.


1) If I learned one main thing this week, it is this: you damn well better have good guard(s) who can get to the basket with their dribble. Defenders aren't allowed to impede much anymore and that makes a good ballhandler worth his weight in gold.

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday's game


Northern Illinois won its last six games with Western Michigan, winning last three here 33-14/51-22/38-3; underdogs covered three of last four in series. Broncos won five of last six overall but lost to Bowling Green at home LW; WMU is 2-0 as home dog this year. NIU won/covered its last five games; they're 2-1 as home favorite. MAC home favorites are 12-7 against spread. Four of last five NIU games went over the total.


Central Michigan-Kent have met once since 2007; teams split last six in series. Chippewas are 5-5 SU, 7-2 vs spread; they're 2-3 SU on the road, Dogs covered four of the five games. CMU is 1-1 as a favorite. Kent lost last three games by combined score of 93-17; they're 1-1-1 as home dog, losing home games by 7-1-48 points. MAC home underdogs are 6-14 vs spread. Last three CMU games, last six Kent games stayed under total.

 

[CNOTES]

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 18


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS




WMU at NIU 08:00 PM

NIU -3.0 DOUBLE PLAY


U 60.0 *****






CMU at KENT 08:00 PM


CMU -8.5 TRIPLE PLAY


O 40.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Game of the Day: East Carolina at Central Florida


East Carolina Pirates at Central Florida Knights (+15, 54.5)


The last time UCF quarterback Justin Holman met East Carolina, his Hail Mary pass fell into the hands of Breshad Perriman with time expiring to give the Knights a share of the American Athletic Conference title. A few weeks shy of a year later, Holman tries to lead UCF to its first victory of the season in its 11th attempt when the Pirates pay a visit Thursday night.


The Knights have struggled with injuries – including Holman – and turnovers (28) while successful head coach George O’Leary announced his retirement after eight games. UCF looks to find its best form and spoil East Carolina’s chance to reach its ninth bowl game in 10 years before taking on USF in its finale. The Pirates have dropped three straight with their talented offense producing just 14.7 points per contest and need to win their final two – including a home game against Cincinnati on Nov. 28 – to become bowl eligible. East Carolina coach Ruffin McNeill told reporters he is going back a two-quarterback system with Blake Kemp and James Summers, who have both put up good numbers.


TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.


LINE HISTORY: East Carolina opened as 15-point road favorites and have stayed there. The total as also stayed put at its opening number of 54.5.


INJURY REPORT:


East Carolina - OL D. Levingston (out indefinitely, shoulder), OL C. matau (out for season, undisclosed), WR J. Williams (out indefinitely, ankle), LB J. Beavers (out indefinitely, knee), QB K. Benkert (out for season, knee).


Central Florida - OL J. Grant (out for season, shoulder), WR J. Akins (out for season, knee), DL D. Anderson (out for season, knee), DB C. Williams (out indefinitely, arm).


WEATHER REPORT: Temperatures will be in the low 70's and there is a 60 percent chance of rain around kickoff. There will also be a five mile per hour wind blowing towards the southern end zone.


ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (4-6, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U): Summers has rushed for 443 yards and thrown for 673 while Kemp has completed 69.8 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, averaging 208.7 yards through the air. Receiver Isaiah Jones (72 catches, 794 yards, three TDs) and tight end Bryce Williams (47, 502, three) provide two top targets. Linebacker Zeek Bigger leads the way with 81 tackles for a defense which boasts 24 sacks – 7.5 by linebacker Montese Overton.


ABOUT UCF (0-6, 2-8 ATS, 5-4-1 O/U): One of the bright lights in this season has been the emergence of freshman Tre’Quan Smith as a receiving threat for an offense that stands last in the AAC in several categories. Smith (41 receptions, 572 yards, three TDs) needs one catch and 13 receiving yards to set freshman records in both categories. Holman threw for 23 scores in 2014 but has struggled as a junior while recording only six TD passes to go along with 11 interceptions, and the Knights have allowed 156 points in the last three games.


TRENDS:


* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* East Carolina is 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in East Carolina's last four games overall.
* Central Florida is 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.


COVERS CONSENSUS: The public is backing UCF, despite just covering twice all year, with 56 percent of wagers on the Knights. Fifty-nine percent of wagers are on the over.

 

[CNOTES]

nice sweep yesterday going 4 - 0..................hope you were onboard...

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


ECU at UCF 07:30 PM


UCF +14.5 DOUBLE PLAY


O 53.5 DOUBLE PLAY




ULM at TXST 09:30 PM


TXST -5.5 *****


U 59.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Tip Sheet


November 19, 2015




**Cincinnati at South Florida**


-- As of Thursday morning, most books had Cincinnati (6-4 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) listed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 64 points. The Bulls were +110 or +115 on the money line.


-- Tommy Tuberville’s team has won three of its last four games both SU and ATS, but it failed to cover the number in last week’s 49-38 win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 87 points climbed ‘over’ the 76.5-point total to end of a five-game surge of ‘unders’ for the Bearcats. Gunner Kiel completed 29-of-42 passes for 386 yards and two TDs, while Mike Boone rushed 18 times for 137 yards and three scores. Tion Green had 64 rushing yards and one TD on 12 totes. MeKale McKay had six receptions for 101 yards, while Shaq Washington had eight catches for 91 yards.


-- Cincy has lost outright in three of its four road assignments this year, posting a 2-2 spread record. As a road favorite on Tuberville’s watch, the Bearcats own a 5-4 spread record.


-- Kiel has connected on 66.1 percent of his throws for 2,423 yards with an 18/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He missed most of a 56-49 loss at Memphis after getting injured (concussion) in the first half. Kiel also missed a 34-23 home win over Miami and a 38-24 loss at BYU before returning to the lineup.


-- Cincy splits up the carries between three excellent RBs. Boone has rushed for a team-high 633 yards and seven TDs while averaging 8.8 yards per carry. Hosey Williams has run for 630 yards and four scores while averaging 5.8 YPC. Finally, Green has 620 rushing yards and six TDs with a 5.2 YPC average.


-- Washington has made a team-best 67 catches for 795 yards and five TDs. Chris Moore has 31 receptions for 671 yards and six TDs, while Max Morrison has 40 grabs for 490 yards and three TDs. Johnny Holton has 17 catches for 461 yards and three TDs, while McKay has 20 receptions for 418 yards and two TDs.


-- I loved South Florida head coach Willie Taggart when he was at Western Ky., where he led the Hilltoppers to back-to-back winning seasons in his second and third seasons after taking over a program that went 0-12 the year prior to his arrival. Most important for our purposes, Taggart went 24-10 ATS in his last 34 games with the ‘Tops, including a 10-2 spread ledger in his second campaign. I thought he would do wonders for the USF program but after losing to Memphis on Oct. 2, Taggart’s name could be found on any list of coaches on the hot seat. At that point, he had an atrocious 5-21 record. However, the Bulls have turned things around since then, going 5-1 both SU and ATS to not only get their coach off the hot seat but also prove that the future under Taggart is a bright one.


-- USF (6-4 SU, 7-2-1 ATS) is off its biggest win of Taggart’s tenure, a 44-23 beatdown of previously-once-beaten Temple as a 2.5-point home underdog. Sophomore RB Marlon Mack was the catalyst with 230 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 21 carries. Quinton Flowers was outstanding as well, rushing 18 times for 90 yards and one TD. The sophomore quarterback connected on 15-of-22 throws for 230 yards and two TDs without an interception. There was nothing fluky about the win over the Owls, as USF won the yardage battle 556-380. And that’s 556 yards against one of the nation’s top defenses, a unit that had allowed more than 26 points just once before its ill-fated trip to Tampa.


-- Flowers’ emergence as a quality QB has been the key to USF’s reversal of fortunes. Consider this: During Taggart’s first season in 2013, USF played four QBs who had seven TD passes compared to 16 interceptions. In 2014, USF played a trio of signal callers who posted an 11/11 TD-INT ratio. Flowers has a 14/6 TD-INT ratio this year and hasn’t been intercepted in more than a month. He has completed 60.4 percent of his throws for 1,676 yards. Flowers also provides versatility with his legs, rushing for 747 yards and eight TDs.


-- Mack has surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for a second straight season. He has 1,065 rushing yards and six TDs while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Rodney Adams, yet another sophomore, has made a team-high 31 catches for 575 yards and seven TDs. Mack has 15 receptions for 99 yards and one TD, while D’Ernest Johnson has 19 grabs for 249 yards and four TDs.


-- USF remains in the thick of the AAC race, trailing East-leading Temple by only one game. The Bulls, who are 4-2 in league play, own the tiebreaker with the Owls, who have to host Memphis this weekend. Taggart’s team finishes up at winless UCF next Thursday.


-- USF has won four of its five home games, posting a 4-0-1 spread record. The Bulls are 2-0-1 ATS as home underdogs this season. They’re 5-7-1 ATS as home ‘dogs since Taggart took over in 2013.


-- The ‘under’ is 5-4-1 overall for USF, but the ‘over’ is 3-2 in its five home games. The Bulls, who saw a three-game streak for the ‘under’ end last week vs. Temple, have seen their games average combined scores of 51.6 points per game. If this total of 64 holds, it will be the highest USF has seen this season. The previous high was 62 in a 38-14 home win over SMU that saw the ‘under’ cash.


-- Totals have been a wash overall (5-5) and on the road (2-2) for Cincinnati. However, the Bearcats have seen the ‘under’ go 5-1 in their last six games. They have seen their games average a combined score of 66.9 PPG.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on Friday night, with the CBS Sports College Network providing the telecast.


**Air Force at Boise State**


-- As of early Thursday morning, most spots had Boise St. (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) installed as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 55. The Falcons were +350 on the money line (risk $100 to win $350).


-- Air Force (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS) has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including last week’s 35-28 win over Utah St. as a two-point home underdog. Senior QB Karson Roberts completed 11-of-17 passes for 271 yards and one TD without an interception. Roberts also ran for 53 yards and one TD on 12 carries. D.J. Johnson rushed 13 times for 79 yards and one TD, while Jacobi Owens produced 58 rushing yards and a pair of scores on 17 carries. Jalen Robinette hauled in seven receptions for 210 yards and one TD.


-- Air Force has dropped three of its four road games, but it has managed a 2-2 spread record. The Falcons are 1-1 ATS as road underdogs this season, 12-15-1 ATS as road puppies during Troy Calhoun’s nine-year tenure.


-- Air Force will be without three defensive starters for a fourth consecutive game. DT David Harris (undisclosed), DB Kalon Baker (hamstring) and LB Patrick Healy.


-- Boise St. is looking pull even with Air Force in the Mtn. West’s West division. The Falcons are 5-1 in league play, leading New Mexico and BSU by one game. They wrap up the regular season by facing the Lobos on the road next Saturday. The Broncos wrap up the regular season next Saturday at San Jose St.


-- Boise St. had won back-to-back games until New Mexico showed up on the smurf turf and captured a stunning 31-24 win as a 31-point road underdog. Bryan Harsin’s squad racked up 638 yards of total offense compared to just 413 for the Lobos, but four turnovers by the Broncos proved to their undoing. Brett Rypien, the true freshman QB who is the nephew of Redskin legend Mark Rypien, threw for 503 yards and two TDs, but he also had three costly interceptions.


-- In the losing effort versus UNM, BSU’s Thomas Sperbeck produced a spectacular performance, hauling in 20 receptions for 281 yards. Jeremy McNichols paced the Broncos in rushing with 128 yards and one TD on 26 totes.


-- Rypien has completed 63.3 percent of his throws for 2,539 yards with a 14/7 TD-INT ratio. Sperbeck has made 69 receptions for 1,210 and seven TDs. McNichols has rushed for a team-best 901 yards and 15 TDs with a 5.0 YPC average. McNichols is also effective catching the ball out of the backfield, catching 37 balls for 302 yards and four TDs.


-- BSU owns a 6-6 spread record in 12 games as a home favorite during Harsin’s tenure. The Broncos are 2-3 ATS in five such spots this season.


-- The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for Air Force, 3-1 in its road assignments.


-- The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for Boise St., 5-0 in its home games. The Broncos have seen their games average combined scores of 57.9 PPG.


-- When these team met in Colorado Springs last year, Air Force won a 28-14 decision as a 13-point home underdog. The 42 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 57.5-point total. Owens rushed for 108 yards and one TD for the winners.


-- ESPN2 will have the broadcast Friday night at 9:30 p.m. Eastern.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- Duke’s David Cutcliffe dismissed three players from the program this week, including WR Terrence Alls, WR Johnell Barnes and LB Chris Holmes. Barnes had started eight of 10 games and was second on the team in catches (34), receiving yards (411) and TD grabs (two). Holmes had appeared in six games this season. He had 30 tackles in 2014.


-- Northwestern owns a 21-15 spread record as a road underdog during Pat Fitzgerald’s tenure. The Wildcats are 10-point underdogs Saturday at Wisconsin.


-- Florida DE Alex McAllister is ‘out’ vs. FAU and there’s concern that his foot injury could keep him out vs. FSU next week and possibly beyond that. McAllister has enjoyed a monster season for the Gators and was the SEC Defensive Player of the Week after the win over Vandy two weeks ago.


-- TCU senior WR Josh Doctson is out for the next two games due to a wrist injury. Despite seeing limited playing time the last two games, Doctson ranks fifth in the country in receptions (79), second in receiving yards (1,327) and is tied for second in TD catches (14). QB Trevone Boykin remains ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s showdown at Oklahoma due to an ankle injury. Also, senior center Joey Hunt is ‘questionable’ with an undisclosed injury. Hunt was a second-team All Big-12 selection in 2014. As of early Thursday, OU-TCU remained off the board.


-- Ole Miss LB Denzel Nkemdiche is ‘doubtful’ vs. LSU after being hospitalized this week for undisclosed reasons. He was reportedly in intensive care at one point, but it isn’t considered to be a “life-threatening” condition. The Rebels were favored by four from Sunday through Wednesday, but the number moved to six Thursday morning.


-- If Baylor QB Jarrett Stidham can’t go Saturday at Oklahoma St. due to a back injury sustained in last week’s home loss to Oklahoma, the Bears will turn to Chris Johnson to start at QB. Johnson has spent most of the season playing WR.

 

[CNOTES]

Air Force, Boise clash


November 20, 2015




AIR FORCE FALCONS (7-3) at BOISE STATE BRONCOS (7-3)


Sportsbook.ag Line: Boise State -10.5, Total: 55.5


Air Force swoops into the Gem State on Friday night to take on struggling Boise State.

The Falcons (7-3 SU and ATS) registered a school record 12th straight home win last weekend in dispatching Utah State 35-28. The team is riding a four-game winning streak coming into Friday’s matchup, trailing only their opponent for best record in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference.

The Broncos (7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS) will try to shake off an uncharacteristic 31-24 loss at home to New Mexico, the team’s first on the blue turf since 2012. Despite the recent loss and a record comparable to its opponent, Boise State is still favored by a sizeable margin on Friday.

In the short history of this Mountain West rivalry, the Broncos have a 2-1 SU advantage, though Air Force has won 3-0 ATS. The Falcons got their sole SU win last season in a 28-14 upset that saw the Broncos cough up seven turnovers.

Air Force doesn’t have many trends in its favor this week, but the team is 26-11 ATS after covering the spread in four or five of its previous six games since 1992, and underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points who are good teams (60% to 80% win pct.) are 85-42 ATS since 1992 after beating the spread by a total of 21+ points in their previous three games and facing a winning team.

Bettors looking to wager on Boise State have a variety of trends to lean on, as the team is 32-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of its previous three games since 1992, and 80-48 ATS after playing a conference opponent in the same span.

Air Force’s offense has been better than most this season, averaging 34.1 PPG (34th of 128 FBS teams), though it has been middle of the pack on the road (28.2 PPG). After the season-ending injury to QB Nate Romine, senior QB Karson Roberts has filled in ably for Air Force, registering one of the best games of his career last week with 11-of-17 completions for 271 yards and a touchdown, while contributing 53 yards and a score on the ground. Roberts routinely tallies more rushing attempts than passing attempts in the Falcons’ run-first offense, which averages just 121.7 YPG through the air, the fourth-lowest of the FBS teams.

On the flip side, the team averages a whopping 333.2 rushing YPG, the third-highest among teams in the nation. RB Jacobi Owens leads Air Force with 673 yards on 139 attempts and 6 TD, followed by Roberts’ 463 yards on 109 attempts and eight touchdowns. In total, the team has an astonishing five players with 320+ rushing yards and 4+ rushing touchdowns.
The Falcons’ defense has been stout this season, allowing opponents just 19.8 PPG (26th out of 128 FBS teams) and 306 total YPG (12th out of 128).

Boise State has been solid on both sides of the ball this season, though its offense is not as potent as usual, generating 38.3 PPG and 499 YPG, 19th and 15th best of the FBS teams, respectively.

Freshman QB Brett Rypien has averaged 317.4 passing YPG in eight games filling in for injured starting QB Ryan Finley, and tallying 14 TD along the way. He’s also thrown seven interceptions, three of which came in last week’s loss to New Mexico. Rypien has a pair of offensive weapons in WR Thomas Sperbeck, with whom he connected 20 times for 281 yards last week, and RB Jeremy McNichols, who leads the team with 901 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns.

The Broncos’ defense gives up just 19.6 PPG (23rd out of 128) and 302 total YPG (11th out of 128), with their secondary hauling in 15 interceptions on the season. The team has slipped a bit of late, allowing opponents a higher-than-average 31.0 PPG in its past four games.

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Report - Week 12
November 20, 2015


2015 PAC-12 STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Arizona 6-5 3-5 6-5 8-3


Arizona State 5-5 3-4 3-7 3-7


California 6-4 3-4 5-5 3-7


Colorado 4-7 1-6 4-6-1 4-7


Oregon 7-3 5-2 6-4 6-4


Oregon State 2-8 0-7 2-8 4-6


Southern California 7-3 5-2 5-5 4-6


Stanford 8-2 7-1 7-3 5-5


UCLA 7-3 4-3 4-5-1 3-7


Utah 8-2 5-2 5-5 6-4


Washington 4-6 2-5 5-5 2-8


Washington State 7-3 5-2 8-2 4-6




Arizona at Arizona State (NO TV, 3:30 p.m. ET)
In the 'Disappointment Bowl', it is Arizona and Arizona State. Each team entered with high expecations in 2015, with some even tabbing the Sun Devils as a potential playoff team. That ship sailed back in September, and both of these clubs are simply fighting for bowl eligibility, or to improve their bowl profile. Arizona State is favored by 7 1/2 in this game at most shops, and the underdog is 8-3 in the past 11 meetings in this series. That's something to remember. The under has also hit in five of the past six meetings in Tempe, although the over is 4-1 in the past five meetings overall and the over is 9-3 in Arizona's past 12 overall.


Southern California at Oregon (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Ducks were written off earlier in the year after a horrible home loss against Utah and an overtime setback against Washington State sent them to 3-3. However, the Ducks have rolled to four straight wins, and they're 4-0 ATS during the span to vault back into the Top 25. USC has had a similar season, stumbling to 3-3 back on Oct. 17 at Notre Dame. That loss came after the firing of head coach Steve Sarkisian. However, they too have rattled off four wins in a row, covering two of them. The 'under' has also hit in three in a row for USC. The Trojans are a dismal 7-16 ATS in their past 23 road games, and 4-10 ATS in their past 14 road games against a team with a winning home record, while the Ducks are 13-3 ATS in their past 16 Pac-12 contests. However, the Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their past six at Autzen Stadium. In this series, the 'over' has cashed in four straight, and the favorite has hit in seven of the past nine.


UCLA at Utah (FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET)
This is a very important game in the Pac-12 South. The Utes were once in the Top 5 of the standings, but have since tumbled back in the pack. They already have a loss at USC, so while tied at 5-2 they are technically behind for the conference division lead. A win against UCLA, and a Bruins win over the Trojans would have the Utes positioned for their first conference championship game. It will be a tall order, though, as the Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their past five road games, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Utes are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven at Rice-Eccles, but 11-4 ATS in their past 15 overall against teams with a winning overall mark. Utah is also 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, with the 'under' cashing in each of the past four meetings.


Washington at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m.)
The Huskies hit the road for Corvallis as more than two-touchdown favorites. The Beavers have been brutal this season, and they're 1-5 ATS over their past six home games and just 5-16 ATS in their past 21 conference tilts. Washington hasn't been much better, going 1-4 ATS in their past five overall (all conference tilts). However, Washington is 12-5 ATS in their past 17 against teams with a losing record, and 5-1 ATS in their past six road outings against a team with a losing home mark. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series, though, and Washington is 3-8 ATS in their past 11 against Oregon State. The 'under' looks attractive based on recent trends, as the 'under' is 7-0 in Washington's past seven road games and 20-6 in their past 26 overall. The 'under' is also 9-1 in Washington's past 10 conference tilts. The 'under' is 5-2 in Oregon State's past seven at Reser Stadium, and 9-4 in their past 13 overall. However, the 'over' is 5-0-1 in the past six meetings in this series in Corvallis. The latter might be a bit meaningless considering the falloff in offense for both sides in recent seasons.


California at Stanford (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
It's time for the 118th installment of the 'Big Game'. While the playoff hopes of Stanford likely went up in flames in last week's 38-36 loss against Oregon, the Cardinal are still on track for a nice bowl game if they can pick up their sixth straight victory over their rivals from Cal. The Golden Bears are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 road games, but 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall record. Stanford has been good against the number, going 7-2 ATS in their past nine overall and 6-2 ATS in their past eight against clubs with a winning overall mark. In this series Cal is 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings, with the road team hitting in five of the past six against the number. The 'over' has connected in five of the past seven in this series.


Colorado at Washington State (ESPN, 10:45 p.m.)
In a rather disappointing season for the Pac-12 as a whole, Washington State has been one of the better stories. It didn't start out that way, as they lost their season opener to FCS Portland State. But they have fought and climbed all the way into the Top 25 this week, and are favored by more than two touchdowns at home. The Buffaloes are just 8-17 ATS in their past 25 road games against a team with a winning home record, but the underdog and road team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. While the Cougars have covered seven in a row, and four of the past five against losing teams, they're 0-2 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Notes - Week 12
November 20, 2015




Here's what we got for Week 12.


1) Correct sharp movement: Michigan State/Ohio State OVER


Sharps and the public alike lining up to move this game upward and I doubt it stops until the number reaches at least 56, so if you like this game OVER the total……jump in now. This number was held down a bit due to injury concerns for Spartans quarterback Connor Cook but it looks like he'll go and be reasonably healthy. Respect still be given to both of these defenses despite the fact that they are rarely producing the numbers to back them up.


Ohio State will be much better with QB J.T. Barrett back and entrenched as the starter and they've yet to truly explode in a game, perhaps this is the one. The Spartans have sorely missed departed defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi as they've surrendered 28, 24, 26 and 39 to the four decent offenses on their schedule. Ohio State's numbers are skewed by a weak schedule as this will be their first game vs a ranked opponent all season long. This has the makings of a game where these offenses exploit some lightly tested defenses.


2) Incorrect sharp movement: Memphis/Temple UNDER


A little surprised at the movement downward in this one considering the respect showered on the Memphis offense and QB Paxton Lynch. The Tigers average 541 yards of offense per game and have faced a decent slate of opposing defenses, including Ole Miss, Tulane, and Houston. The Tigers can move the football and have a defense that is accustomed to playing in shootouts as they've allowed 29 points per game.


Temple does own a strong defense but it looks as if the pressure of a tough schedule and the unfamiliarity of being the hunted has started to take it's toll on them. The Owls have allowed 42 PPG the last two weeks and are now allowing 27 ppg to average offenses. Memphis plays fast and has strong skill position players and just two of their games all season long have stayed UNDER this current number (58).


think the Owls defense is slipping and that Temple we be forced into a "shootout" type game with this one flying over the 60 point mark.


3) Public movement: USC/Oregon OVER


Well, things are back to normal in the Pac-12 totals market as the public just pounces on Oregon OVER the total to start every week. With the return to health of QB Vernon Adams the Ducks offense is clicking and they seem to be a completely different team with him at the helm. USC has a plethora of talented skill position players and neither of these teams have shown any indication that they are able to stop a competent offensive unit. Oregon now averaging their customary 42 PPG but allowing a surprising 37 PPG, which should ensure that a Trojan offense averaging 465 YPG of offense, should find some success.


Both of these teams are on offensive kick-ups and these offenses will be MUCH better than the defenses they are facing. The last three times these teams faced each other we saw combined totals of 85, 73, and 113. I'll agree with the public on this movement up to 76 and it would take 77 or better for me to even consider coming in on the other side. This opener was a mistake and the public found some low hanging fruit.


4) Market manipulation: Mississippi State/Arkansas OVER


I have no idea who is moving these Mississippi State totals but they are moving them aggressively and somehow the market continues to follow along. This is the 3rd consecutive week that we've seen heavy movement on a Mississippi State total OVER despite their being little statistical or modeling parameters to support it. I called it a "head fake" last week and produced a winner so we will return to the well once more. Arkansas is on an uptick and the Hogs have finally begun to achieve their potential with improved QB play.


The Bulldogs continue to be solely reliant on QB Dak Prescott for the entirety of their offense and it limits them. There are some indicators that the Hogs could have a good day running the ball but I don't think it'll be enough to achieve this total. Number is on the rise (58) and will likely reach 60 before seeing any buyback. Arkansas roles in this one and the Bulldogs struggle offensively, holding this one UNDER this inflated total.


Aloha!

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ten Report - Week 12
November 19, 2015




Northwestern at Wisconsin – BTN, 3:30 p.m. EST


This line opened with Wisconsin an 11-point favorite and has dropped to 10 as of Wednesday. The Badgers are coming off a bye week and this is their home finale. The host has won 8 straight in this series by an average score of 36-18. Northwestern seems to have turned things around since a mid-October mini slump. They started the season with 5 straight wins and then were blown out on back to back weekends vs Michigan & Iowa. The Cats have since beaten Nebraska, Penn State, & Purdue. Last Saturday’s win over Purdue was a struggle as NW scored late in the 4th quarter (about 4:00 minutes remaining) to pick up the 21-14 win. The Cats are the worst statistical offense in the Big Ten averaging 21 PPG (14th in the conference) on just 4.7 YPP (14th in the conference). That presents a very interesting match up vs a Wisconsin team that ranks 1st nationally in scoring defense allowing just 12.3 PPG and allows opponents to average just 4.5 YPP.


The Badgers were hoping to get a few key players back after the bye but that now looks like it may not happen. RB Corey Clement (hernia) has played in one full game this season putting up big numbers (115 yards on 11 carries) vs Rutgers on Oct 31st. The hope was he would progress a bit more each week and carry more of the load. He went the other direction and hasn’t played since the Rutgers game and our word is he will most likely be out again this Saturday. One of our close contacts within the program told us not to be surprised if Clement didn’t play again this season. Wisconsin went into the bye with a road win over Maryland 31-24. They were outgained in that game for the first time since the Alabama game to open the season. Speaking of yardage, the Badgers have the 2nd best YPG differential in the Big Ten at +126 per game. Only Ohio State is better in that category. The 8-2 Badgers still have an outside shot at winning the Big Ten West but in order for that to happen they would need Iowa to lose at home vs Purdue and at Nebraska in the finale and Wisconsin would have to win out. Wisconsin 8-2 SU last 10 at home vs NW and 19 seniors will play their final game at Camp Randall on Saturday.


Michigan at Penn State – ABC, 12:00 p.m. EST


Is Michigan’s defense starting to wear down late in the season? It looks like that might be a possibility. After starting the Big Ten season with back to back shutouts and allowing a TOTAL of 38 points through their first 5 games, the Wolverines have allowed 110 points (27.5 PPG) over their last 4 games. After allowing none of their first 5 opponents to gain over 4.8 YPP, Michigan has allowed 3 of their last 4 opponents to put up at least 5.4 YPP. While that’s still solid, there has been a decent sized drop off. Not to mention this defense was on the field for 89 plays in last week’s 48-41 win at Indiana on now on the road again, it will be worth keeping an eye on. Offensively, Michigan and QB Rudock has looked great the last two weeks putting up 49 & 48 points albeit against two of the worst defenses in the nation (Rutgers & Indiana). Last week, Rudock set career highs in passing yards (440), completions (33), and TD’s (6). However, that was against the Hoosiers 122nd ranked pass defense. We’ll see if he can come anywhere close to that against a PSU pass defense that ranks 2nd nationally allowing only 159 YPG through the air.


In our opinion, PSU has been overrated all season long as they are in an advantageous spot here for their home final off a bye week. Despite their 7-3 record they are only outgaining their opponents by an average of 39 YPG. Their offense continues to be sporadic at best and ranks 12th in the league averaging only 350 YPG. QB Hackenberg has played much better as of late but he sets up behind a leaky offensive line that has allowed 33 sacks this year which is 8 more than any other Big Ten team. Last year Michigan got their first win over PSU since 2007 topping the Nits 18-13 in Ann Arbor. It was a game lacking in offense as the two teams totaled just 460 yards.


Michigan State at Ohio State – ABC, 3:30 p.m. EST


The big question in this game is the health of MSU QB Connor Cook. He’s had a shoulder problem for a few weeks and last week he did not return after halftime vs Maryland because of that shoulder problem. The offense as a whole was poor and even more so when Cook was out in the 2nd half. For the game MSU averaged only 3.6 YPP on a defense that has allowed 5.3 YPP on the season. Cook will need to be close to 100% if Sparty wants to have a shot at the upset. He says he’s 95% and ready to go but others in the know think he’s hurting more than he’s leading on. Cook is 32-4 as a starter and MSU has actually won 19 of their last 23 road games yet they are getting nearly 2 TD’s here.


It’s a huge game for both teams. Both teams are in the same position. Win out and head to the Big Ten Championship game. Ohio State got QB Barrett back last week after a one game suspension and the Bucks dominated Illinois on the road 28-3. The Bucks outgained the Illini 440-261 and 5.9 YPP to just 3.6 YPP. OSU leads the Big Ten in YPG differential at +155 YPG in in YPP differential at +2.2. Despite MSU’s 9-1 record they have not been all that impressive in the stat column outgaining teams by only +42 YPG and +0.2 YPP. These two met last year and put up a ton of offense (over 1,100 total yards) and OSU prevailed 49-37 at Michigan State. The underdog has covered 4 straight in the series and the road team has cashed 6 of the last 7 meetings.


Indiana at Maryland – BTN, 12:00 p.m. EST


It’s do or die time for Indiana. Win this game and then beat Purdue in the season finale and get to a bowl game. Lose either game and they will stay home again over the holidays. The Hoosiers have been “this close” the last two weeks at home vs two of the Big Ten’s best. Two weeks ago they lost 28-20 to undefeated Iowa and last week they fell short 48-41 in OT vs Michigan. As we’ve stated in this column in past editions, if the Hoosiers could stop or even slow down anyone they’d be tough to beat. They lead the Big Ten in total offense at 467 YPG but they are dead last in total defense allowing 511 YPG. The defense, as usual, was the problem again last week as Michigan ripped off nearly 600 total yards on 7.9 YPP. Offensively, IU and mainly RB Howard were great. Howard ran for 238 yards on a Michigan defense that is allowing only 81 YPG on the ground.


Maryland has actually played their best football after head coach Randy Edsall was fired a few weeks ago. They did lose 24-7 at Michigan State last week but the game was closer than that. The Terps actually outgained the Spartans by 27 yards in the game but turned the ball over a whopping 5 times. Because of the turnovers, MSU was left with a short field on many occasions scoring a TD on a 50 yard drive and a 4 yard drive and a FG on an 18 yard drive. Speaking of turnovers, the Terps are AVERAGING 3 interceptions per game which is by far the worst in the nation. It’s almost impossible to win when you do that. Can the Terps continue to stay focused and play for interim head coach Mike Locksley now that the rumors have surfaced the Maryland brass are interested in Texan coach Bill O’Brien and he seems to be interested in them? We’ll see. Maryland comes into this game as a slight home favorite of 2.5 and IU is just 6-28 their last 34 road games.


Purdue at Iowa – ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. EST


The Hawks don’t need style points and they don’t need to be fancy. Win out, including winning the Big Ten Championship Game, and they are in College Football’s Final 4. Iowa plays their final home game on Saturday vs last place Purdue. Do you think Iowa will try and run the ball in this one? We’re pretty sure they will facing a Boilermaker defense that has allowed 632 yards on the ground just in the last two weeks (vs Illinois & Northwestern). Iowa “escaped” again last week holding off Minnesota for a 40-35 win. That win moved Iowa to 10-0 on the season but half of their wins (5) have come by 9 points or less. They are 6-0 in the Big Ten and 4 of those 6 wins have come by 9 points or less. They sit just 4th in the Big Ten in YPG differential behind Ohio State, Wisconsin, & Michigan. Iowa is laying 21 points in this game but they’ll be happy to just move on with a win.


Purdue has been all over the map. After getting destroyed at home vs Illinois two weeks ago, they bounced back and nearly upset Northwestern on the road last Saturday. The Cats scored a TD with just under 5:00 remaining to grab the 21-14 win. The Boilers key offensive weapon has become freshman RB Jones. He injured his knee in last week’s game and didn’t return. He’s expected to play this week. When Jones went out at the end of the 3rd quarter last week, from that point on Purdue was able to muster just 22 total yards in 12 plays. He is key if Purdue hopes to hang with Iowa this weekend. The Boilermakers are playing their 2nd of back to back road games but that isn’t necessarily a terrible thing. Purdue has actually played better in their 4 road games where they have been leading, tied or within one score deep into the third quarter. In half of their home games (3) the game has been well out of hand in the third quarter.


Illinois at Minnesota – ESPNNews, 12:00 p.m. EST


The Gophs have played three of the Big Ten’s best over their last 3 games and they’ve been right there with a chance to win in all of them. They played host to Michigan a few weeks back and despite completely dominating the game (461 yards to 296) they lost 29-26. Minnesota was held at the goal line as time ran out in that one. A week later they last at Ohio State 28-14 but it was closer than that as the Bucks returned an interception for a TD late in that game to put the margin at 14. Last week they went back and forth with undefeated Iowa before falling 40-35 on the road. Minny’s offense is humming right now and QB Leidner is averaging 290 YPG passing in his last 4 games. The defense, on the other hand, is banged up. They lost players in the defensive backfield earlier this year and some are still out. Now the injury bug has hit the defensive line where starting DT’s Richardson & Epke were out last week at Iowa. We’ll keep an eye on this. Minnesota has to win this week and next week vs Wisconsin to qualify for a bowl game.


Illinois continues to struggle offensively. They put up just 3 points last week vs OSU and have been held to 20 points or fewer in 5 of their 6 Big Ten games. They rank dead last in scoring offense (16 PPG) in Big Ten play (conference games only). QB Lunt has been inconsistent all year and while he has thrown for 224 YPG, he is not ranked in the top 10 in the league in QB rating. The return of RB Ferguson has been big as he is their main offensive threat. He came back from injury 2 weeks ago and rushed for 133 yards at Purdue. Last week he was held in check and tweaked his hamstring but should be good to go here. The other Illini RB Vaughn (their leading rusher) most likely will not play this weekend (concussion). As of Wednesday, Vaughn is not even scheduled to make the trip north. These two met in Champaign last year and the Illini captured a 28-24 win despite being outgained 411 to 263. Illinois scored the winning TD on a fumble return with just 6:00 left in the game.