Cnotes WCup - Group Breakdown

[CNOTES]

WCup - Group Breakdown

May 27, 2014

Confederation Breakdown

Now that we have laid out which teams are in this year’s competition & broken down which confederations have the most success let’s jump into group analysis. In this article we are going to examine each team and give some color behind their chances this year.

Group A
Prior World Cup Finishes
World Cup Hosts S. AFRICA GERMANY JAPAN FRANCE USA FIFA
Country Region 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 Rank
BRAZIL CONMEBOL QF QF WIN 2ND WIN 4
CROATIA UEFA - G G 3RD - 20
MEXICO CONCACAF 16 16 16 16 - 19
CAMEROON CAF G - G G G 50


Brazil heads into this year’s competition as the host nation & clearly the favorite to hoist the trophy – especially considering the pounding they put on Spain in Brazil last summer. Brazil has failed to meet expectations in each of the last two World Cups bowing out in the QF round each time – and will be a hungry nation this year – in a relatively weak group expect them to advance. The 2nd team to advance from this group could really be any of the other three, with Cameroon the least likely. Mexico has reached the knockout stage in each of the last four World Cups and thus is likely the favorite to finish 2nd – however they certainly played a less than inspiring qualification having to compete vs. New Zealand in a playoff to earn the final spot. Croatia missed out on the last World Cup & has failed to reach the knockout stage since their 1998 team lost in the semifinals – but they are the only UEFA team in this group which could give them a small edge in chances of advancing. I expect that second spot to come down to the final game of group stage, June 23rd between Mexico & Croatia and give Croatia the edge.

Group B
Prior World Cup Finishes
World Cup Hosts S. AFRICA GERMANY JAPAN FRANCE USA FIFA
Country Region 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 Rank
SPAIN UEFA WIN 16 QF G QF 1
NETHERLANDS UEFA 2ND 16 - 4TH QF 15
CHILE CONMEBOL 16 - - 16 - 13
AUSTRALIA OFC G 16 - - - 59


In one of the stronger groups sans Australia Group B will be very competitive with Chile likely trying to bounce one of the two UEFA powerhouses to reach the knockout stage. Australia did shock the world by advancing to the knockout stage in 2006 Germany, but the deck is really stacked against them this time around. Defending World Cup & UEFA Champions Spain are currently ranked #1, and despite more failures than successes in the World Cup they finally broke through in South Africa to win the title – and thus with virtually the same team have to be considered one of the favorites again. Netherlands, who lost to Spain in the 2010 Championship game, are the 2nd UEFA team in this group but actually have a lower FIFA rank than Chile; these two figure to battle it out for the 2nd knockout stage bid from this group, and Chile may have the slight advantage with lots of home fans & what figures to be a weather edge playing in some hot & steamy conditions most likely.

Group C
Prior World Cup Finishes
World Cup Hosts S. AFRICA GERMANY JAPAN FRANCE USA FIFA
Country Region 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 Rank
COLOMBIA CONMEBOL - - - G G 5
GREECE UEFA G - - - G 10
IVORY COAST CAF G G - - - 21
JAPAN AFC 16 G 16 G - 47


Group C is clearly one of the weaker groups on paper with a team reaching the knockout stage in just 2 of 20 chances (going back five World Cups) – and one of those was the year the Cup was played in Japan & Japan advanced losing in the Round of 16. No team has reached the Quarterfinal round of the World Cup since at least 1990 – so we will have two very happy countries once this year’s group stage is played out. Colombia is the top ranked team according to FIFA checking in at #5 in the World, yet they have not played in a World Cup since 1998 France! Greece checks in at #10 in the World & has had some recent success reaching the group stage in 2010 South Africa & being the last team not named Spain to win Euro (2004). But let’s be honest – that success isn’t overbearing or too relevant considering that Euro title was 10 years ago! Ivory Coast has reached the group stage in each of the last two competitions, but has failed to advance. Japan is the only team that has advanced past a group stage, doing so last time in 2010 South Africa & in 2002 Japan – but they easily have the worst FIFA ranking checking in at #47. This group really is wide open but at this moment I would give the edges to advancing to Greece & Colombia considering CAF has only had one team advance in each of the last 5 World Cups (I believe Nigeria & Cameroon have better chances at advancing than Ivory Coast), and Japan seems to have overachieved in two of the last three World Cups meaning they may fall back some.

Group D
Prior World Cup Finishes
World Cup Hosts S. AFRICA GERMANY JAPAN FRANCE USA FIFA
Country Region 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 Rank
URUGUAY CONMEBOL 4TH - G - - 6
COSTA RICA CONCACAF - G G - 34
ENGLAND UEFA 16 QF QF 16 - 11
ITALY UEFA G WIN 16 QF 2ND 9


Group D is the 2nd strongest when taking a pure average of the FIFA rankings, but on paper they certainly have the most name recognition and dangerous squads – but are the teams as good as the names suggest this time around? I am not so sure. Uruguay figures to be a dangerous squad with how well Suarez is playing, their success in 2010 South Africa & the fact this year’s competition will take place in South America – but how come they struggled so mightily in qualification, needing to win a playoff to secure their spot? England & Italy are two powerhouse names from UEFA, but when taking a closer look outside Italy’s win in 2006 Germany neither has advanced past the Quarterfinal round since Italy’s 2nd place finish in 1994 USA. Italy has a lot of roster turnover of late, especially when comparing to their 2006 Championship team, and may be too young & inexperienced to battle for a championship this year. England also has a changed roster from recent competitions, but some of their key pieces are still in place – albeit aging. Costa Rica could be a dangerous team in this group, clearly perceived as the worst of the group having missed out on qualifying from the last World Cup & being eliminated in the group stage in the two Cups before that. This is another tough group to call, but right now I will give the edge to Uruguay to win the group, with Italy likely to secure the other bid to the knockout stage – but I frankly would not be shocked seeing any of these 4 teams advance to the next stage.

Group E
Prior World Cup Finishes
World Cup Hosts S. AFRICA GERMANY JAPAN FRANCE USA FIFA
Country Region 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 Rank
SWITZERLAND UEFA G 16 - - 16 8
ECUADOR CONMEBOL - 16 G - - 28
FRANCE UEFA G 2ND G WIN - 16
HONDURAS CONCACAF G - - - - 30


This is another group I would classify as relatively weak despite it rating mid-class when using FIFA rankings compared to other groups. Switzerland is rated tops in this group but hasn’t had any success in the World Cup to write home about – they have only made the competition three times of the last five (granted they have reached the last two), topping out in the Round of 16 at Germany in 2006. France, another UEFA squad, is certainly on the downswing of late, checking in the FIFA rankings at #16, failing to get out of the group stage in 2 of their last 3 appearances since winning it all at home in 1998. The group is rounded out with CONMEBOL country Ecuador, who has made the competition only twice of the last five including missing it last time, while Honduras is making its second appearance since 1994, going out in the group stage of 2010 South Africa. I could really see any of these four teams advancing here – and will likely be playing whoever has the best odds to advance (my next article, as mentioned above, will focus on odds and good bets). For this exercise I will project France & Switzerland to advance.

Group F
Prior World Cup Finishes
World Cup Hosts S. AFRICA GERMANY JAPAN FRANCE USA FIFA
Country Region 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 Rank
ARGENTINA CONMEBOL QF QF G QF 16 7
BOS & HERZ UEFA - - - - - 25
IRAN AFC - G - G - 37
NIGERIA CAF G - G 16 16 44


Group F is easily the weakest group when using the FIFA rankings as Argentina is the only team ranked in the Top 24 of the world, and also the only team that has advanced to the knockout stage since Nigeria reached the single elimination tournament in 1998 & 1994. There is no question to me Argentina has some demons to exercise in this year’s competition & will play well leading to an easy advance – perhaps the easiest of any team. The 2nd spot from this group is likely to come from the winner of the middle game on June 21 between Bosnia & Herzegovina vs. Nigeria; I would give the slight edge to Nigeria considering they are the more experienced team & have underachieved in the last few World Cups.

Group G
Prior World Cup Finishes
World Cup Hosts S. AFRICA GERMANY JAPAN FRANCE USA FIFA
Country Region 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 Rank
GERMANY UEFA 3RD 3RD 2ND QF QF 2
PORTUGAL UEFA 16 4TH G - - 3
GHANA CAF QF 16 - - - 38
USA CONCACAF 16 G QF G 16 14


In the toughest region if using average FIFA world rank as the metric Group G is this year’s “Group of Death” – frankly an overused term but I will join the rank & file by using it here. UEFA power Germany leads this group checking in at #2 in the world, having reached at least the QF round in each of the last 5 World Cups including playing in the SF round or Championship game in the last three years. With much of the same team I expect Germany to certainly advance to the knockout stage. The 2nd spot could arguably come from any of the remaining three teams with each reaching the knockout stage in the last World Cup, and each competing in the last two World Cups. Ghana has to be considered the longest shot considering the success of CAF teams recently, and a low FIFA ranking of #38. Portugal should be hungry after only reaching the Round of 16 last time out following a SF loss in 2006 Germany, while the Americans are seeking to at least reach the QF round for the first time since Japan 2002. I like this US team – I certainly feel this is the best team we have put forth perhaps ever, but the group will do us no favors. At least one CONCACAF team has advanced to the knockout stage in each of the last 5 World Cups, thus I will project USA to come in 2nd here (Mexico has been far too inconsistent for my liking).

Group H
Prior World Cup Finishes
World Cup Hosts S. AFRICA GERMANY JAPAN FRANCE USA FIFA
Country Region 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 Rank
BELGIUM UEFA - - 16 G 16 12
ALGERIA CAF G - - - - 25
RUSSIA UEFA - - G - G 18
SOUTH KOREA AFC 16 G 4TH G G 55
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In the 2nd easiest group (only to Group F) according to FIFA rankings – but perhaps the easiest considering how much Argentina is impacting the average ranking of Group F – Group H is wide open and ironically the lowest ranked team in the competition South Korea has enjoyed the most success by far of the four teams in this group! Over the last two World Cups outside the aforementioned South Korea only one of the other three teams Algeria has even played in a World Cup – and they were knocked out in the group stage in 2010 South Africa. Belgium is making its first appearance since 2002 Japan & they are led by Vincent Kompany – who led Manchester City to BPL titles in 2 of the last 3 years. Russia is also a dangerous team from UEFA checking in at #18 in the FIFA world rankings despite not making a World Cup appearance since Japan 2002 where it bowed out in the group stage. At the end of the day despite not having much recent success I feel both UEFA teams are the ones to beat here – and they will ultimately advance to the knockout stage with Belgium winning the group.

Based on those predictions here is what the knockout stage bracket would look like:

Round of 16:
Brazil vs. Chile
Greece vs. Italy
France vs Nigeria
Germany vs. Russia
Spain vs. Croatia
Uruguay vs. Colombia
Argentina vs. Switzerland
Belgium vs. USA

Quarterfinals:
Brazil vs. Italy
Nigeria vs. Germany
Spain vs. Uruguay
Argentina vs. Belgium

Semifinals:
Brazil vs. Germany
Uruguay vs. Argentina

Finals:
Brazil vs. Argentina (Winner - Brazil)

Not only did I lay out what the bracket would look like based on my projections for the group stage I also went ahead and predicted the outcome of each game in the knockout stage leading to the champion being Brazil. Nothing bold there certainly, but I really feel like this is the year Brazil breaks through and wins its first title since 2002. Here is the breakdown by region for my 2014 projections using the matrix I introduced in the beginning of this article:

2014 Predictions
Region 16 QF SF FINAL WINNER
CONCACAF 1 1 - - -
CONMEBOL 5 3 3 2 1
UEFA 9 3 1 - -
AFC - - - - -
CAF 1 1 - - -
OFC - - - - -


As you can see & compare to above it’s very similar to the breakdowns we have seen in the past – which is an important exercise to visually see making it “more likely” your projections have a chance at coming true. Sure many of the UEFA teams feel like favorites & they will be tough outs – but we will likely see about half the Round of 16 made of UEFA teams – the rest coming from other regions.

Weather could play a big part in this year’s Cup because it’s likely to be very hot & humid – something the European teams aren’t familiar with playing in often. That is likely to be an edge to CAF & CONMEBOL squads – meaning we could see a surprise or two from those two regions advancing deep into the knockout stage.

 

[CNOTES]

U.S. World Cup Props

June 1, 2014

The 2014 World Cup from Brazil begins on Thursday June 12 with group play as 32 teams go head-to-head on the soccer pitch.

The United States will open its group play on Monday June 16 against Ghana from Natal, Brazil.

Based on the numbers below, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag expect the first game for the U.S. to be very tight. Ghana has eliminated the United States in both of the last two World Cups – in the group stage of 2006 and in the Round of 16 during the 2010 tournament.

World Cup 2014 Lines (6/16/14)
Ghana +150
USA +140
DRAW +220
Over 2.5 (+140)
Under 2.5 (-160)

Prior to the opening game, bettors can take advantage of proposition wagers for the United States at Sportsbook.ag.

Odds to win Group G
Germany 4/7
Portugal 27/10
USA 9/1
Ghana 10/1

Will USA qualify from Group G?
YES +250
NO -450

Stage of Elimination
Group Stage3/10
2nd Round11/4
Quarter Final14/1
Semi- Final40/1
Runner Up125/1
Winner160/1

Total Group G points for USA
0 - Point7/2
1 - Point10/3
2 - Points15/2
3 - Points10/3
4 - Points4/1
5 - Points20/1
6 - Points12/1
7 - Points28/1
9 - Points105/1

Over/Under Group G Points for USA
Over 2.5 (-145)
Under 2.5 (+105)

Over/Under Group Stage Goals Scored for USA
Over 2.5 (-130)
Under 2.5 (+100)

Over/Under Group Stage Goals Allowed for USA
Over 4.5 (-125)
Under 4.5 (-110)

Top Goal Scorer for USA
Clint Dempsey 15/8
Jozy Altidore 4/1
Chris Wondolowski 6/1
No USA Goalscorer 12/1
Michael Bradley 16/1
Aron Johannsson 16/1
Kyle Beckerman 25/1
Da Marcus Beasley 30/1
Mikkel Diskerud 30/1
Graham Zusi 30/1
Omar Gonzalez 33/1
Brad Davis 33/1
Jermaine Jones 40/1
Julian Green 40/1
Matt Besler 40/1
John Brooks 40/1
Alejandro Bedoya 50/1
Timmy Chandler 66/1
Fabian johnson 66/1
DeAndre Yedlin 66/1
Geoff Cameron 66/1

 

[CNOTES]

Tickets for top WCup matches sell out fast

June 4, 2014



SAO PAULO (AP) - The remaining tickets for the most important World Cup matches were sold out fast on Wednesday, disappointing hundreds of fans who waited in line across Brazil.

Tickets for the opener, the final and the two semifinals were sold out shortly after becoming available on FIFA's website at midnight Wednesday Brazilian time (0300 GMT). All matches in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro also sold out quickly online.

The tickets not sold online would be put on sale at ticket centers across the country the following morning. However, only matches between less prominent teams were still available by the time the centers opened, prompting complaints from many fans who spent the night in line to get a ticket.

About 180,000 extra tickets were made available by FIFA for all 64 matches of the monthlong tournament that begins next week.

There were long waits for people trying to purchase the tickets on FIFA's website. Fans were put on virtual waiting lines before being redirected to the actual ticketing site. Some people had to wait nearly two hours to get in, and by then most of the top tickets had already gone.

Tickets for the June 12 opener between Brazil and Croatia in Sao Paulo were sold out in about an hour, as were all those for the July 13 final at the Maracana Stadium.

There were also long lines at the ticket centers in the 12 host cities, with some fans arriving overnight to try to secure one of the remaining tickets.

Many complained that organizers were not prepared for the amount of people that showed up.

''They talk about the disorganization of the Brazilian people but they are those disorganized,'' Brazilian Alexander Barbosa told APTN in Rio de Janeiro. ''Sadly the disorganization is from FIFA and not from the Brazilian people.''

By the end of the day on Wednesday, there were tickets left for only about 15 matches. The games with the most tickets still available included Bosnia-Iran in the northeastern city of Salvador on June 25 and Greece-Ivory Coast in the nearby city of Fortaleza on June 24.

A total of about 3.3 million tickets will be sold for the first World Cup in Brazil since 1950, according to FIFA. More than 2.5 million tickets had already been allocated, including through FIFA's hospitality programs.

The game's governing body couldn't put all tickets on sale earlier because it didn't have all the seating charts at the most delayed stadiums in Brazil.

 

[CNOTES]

World Cup Predictions

June 6, 2014

Golden Boot Predictions

Argentina to rule in Rio

The World Cup is only days away. Punters and soccer fanatics all over the world have done their research. Everyone has their favourites, but in the end there will only be one team left to rule supreme over the others, and I think that team will be Argentina.

The well-documented major strength of Argentina is their incredible forward line. Their front four of Lionel Messi, Gonzalo Higuain, Sergio Aguero and Angel Di Maria, is comfortably the most formidable in the world. All of them are coming off the back of excellent seasons. Having been handed a fairly straightforward route to the final (Nigeria, Bosnia and Iran in the group, and a likely clash with either Switzerland or Ecuador in the last 16), I'm happy to take the 4/1 offered by Sportsbook.ag on the Argentines to win their first World Cup since 1986.

The man to watch is Angel Di Maria, of Real Madrid. He has moved into a narrower, deeper role this year, and it has resulted in the season of his life. Di Maria was the star man in the Champions League final and, in contrast to many players who play in Europe, Di Maria got better and better as the season went on. By May he was virtually unplayable. 50/1 on him to win the Player of the Tournament award looks a fantastic bet.

So what lies behind that front four? The deeper lying midfield duo of Javier Mascherano and Fernando Gago are just as good at their jobs as the Messi and co. While Mascherano is often deployed as a centre-back for Barcelona, at international level he is very much the battling midfield terrier he was before moving to Catalonia. Gago, the playmaker, is someone who seems to play better for country than for club. His excellent understanding with Messi is one the main reasons coach Alejandro Sabella is so keen on him.

There is a myth that Lionel Messi can't perform for Argentina. Let's just bust that one right now. Under the frankly incompetent Diego Maradona, he was shunted out wide and not given the key role a man of his quality deserves. However, once Sabella made the shrewd decision to hand Messi the captaincy - a sign that he was to be the focal point of the team, he flourished. Since the first World Cup qualifier in September 2011, Messi has scored 20 in 22 games for Argentina.

The main weakness is the defence. This has as much to do with Argentina's cavalier approach that can leave the defence exposed, as the quality of the defenders themselves. The extent to which this is a weakness has been overstated. Pablo Zabaleta is the right-back - he has been a regular with a top European club in Manchester City for several years. Ezequiel Garay, who had a superb season with Benfica, partners Federico Fernandez, who was part of a mean defence at Napoli. The weak link is Marcos Rojo at left-back, who is naturally a centre-back, while Sergio Romero does not inspire great confidence in goal.

The 3/1 favourites are Brazil. They are the rightful favourites after a fantastic year where Luis Felipe Scolari has really got his team in shape. They play the same first XI every game (4-2-3-1 Julio Cesar; Dani Alves, Thiago Silva, David Luiz, Marcelo; Luiz Gustavo, Paulinho; Hulk, Oscar, Neymar; Fred). It is not a stellar team, but Scolari has fostered a club-like team spirit that is very hard to replicate at international level, with such limited time available.

Their strengths are the great understanding between star man Neymar and unfairly-maligned forward Fred, and the attacking menace of their full-backs. However there is a slight lack of game-changing attacking quality off the bench, with young Bernard the only real option. 3/1 is just a shade too short to get involved.

Bookies have a clear 'big four' with two South Americans and two Europeans. The most appealing of the Europeans are the 13/2 holders Spain. This is a team that knows how to win. This alone means they cannot be discounted. However the last two years has seen several high-profile matches where teams have beaten teams playing the Spanish passing style. Think of Bayern Munich's 7-0 aggregate defeat against Barcelona, and then this season Real Madrid's 4-0 win at a Bayern Munich side who, under Pep Guardiola, played the 'Spanish way'.

People have worked out how to beat this style of football. A refusal to compromise their principles will, I think, cost Spain.

The most opposable team in the 'big four' are Germany, who seem far too short at 5/1. They play all three games in the daytime, in cities near the Equator, which will inevitably curb their fast attacking style and leave them drained for the later stages. Their group is difficult, they are likely to face Argentina in the quarter-finals, and their best recognised striker is 36 year-old Miroslav Klose. After coming so close in every tournament since Euro 2004, I feel the Germans may have missed their chance.

So what of the outsiders? Belgium can be immediately dismissed at 13/1, while I am not as keen on 20/1 shots Colombia as I would have been a year ago. The injury to Falcao, along with a creaking defence, mean I cannot see them getting beyond the quarters.

France are an interesting option. Since an almighty scare in their play-off against Ukraine, they have put in some excellent performances. Even with doubts over Franck Ribery's fitness, the French have some superb attacking options in Karim Benzema and Mathieu Valbuena, while young centre-midfielder Paul Pogba is tipped by many to be a future Best Player in the World. At 22/1 they are appealingly priced.

However, the best bet outside the big four comes in the shape of 30/1 shots Portugal. Of all the Europeans they will feel most at home in Brazil, and in Cristiano Ronaldo, they have the Ballon d'Or winner. Much will depend on Ronaldo's fitness, but if 100% fit he wins matches on his own. They are 3/1 to beat Germany in their opening game, which is hugely attractive.

Top Bets

Argentina to win the World Cup at 4/1

France to win the World Cup at 22/1

Portugal to win the World Cup at 30/1

 

[CNOTES]

WCup Top Bets - Group E-H

June 8, 2014

Top Group Bets: A - B - C - D

Group E

Group E is possibly the weakest group at the World Cup, and France are the 20/29 favourites to win it with Sportsbook.ag. However I’d be wary of going in too hard at this price. While I expect the French to do well, they never seem to nail the group stages. In Euro 2012 they surrendered top spot to England thanks to a defeat to Sweden, and even when they reached the World Cup final in ’06, they stumbled through a similarly weak group with just five points. The loss of Franck Ribéry will hit Les Bleus hard, but in Karim Benzema they have a striker on top form, while Paul Pogba is touted by many as a future great.

The bookmakers make Switzerland the 2/3 favourites to qualify with the French. They have a team packed with flair: Xherdan Shaqiri on the right wing is the star, while Granit Xhaka, Ricardo Rodriguez and Josip Drmic all have great potential. Their opening clash with Ecuador in Brasília will be crucial. Ecuador’s main strength is their excellent wide men Antonio Valencia and Jefferson Montero, but their defence could let them down. However I’m happy to take even on them qualifying, as I think home advantage could be crucial.

Honduras are a physical side, but at 6/1 to qualify I expect their contribution to be more about denting other side’s prospects with doughty draws than winning themselves.

Group E - Top Bets:
Ecuador to Qualify at even (+100)

Group F

Group F looks like a fairly straightforward affair for Argentina, who are my pick to win the World Cup. Alejandro Cabella’s side are1/4 favourites to win the group. Their three opponents all look shaky at the back, and Argentina’s devastating front three of Gonzalo Higuain, Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero look set to plunder plenty of goals in this section. They are evens to score over 6.5 goals in these three games.

The main match in this group will be Bosnia-Herzegovina’s match against Nigeria, and bookmakers are correct in making Bosnia (the only debutants in Brazil) the 5/7 favourites. They scored 30 goals in 10 games in qualifying with the deadly duo of Vedad Ibisevic and Edin Dzeko scoring eighteen of them. Even if defence is a concern, between the sticks they have the excellent Asmir Begovic. I’m very keen on them scoring over 3.5 group goals at 20/23.

Nigeria look one of the strongest of the five African sides represented, and in Stephen Keshi they have an excellent home-grown coach. However like Cameroon, they have a shortage of creativity in a largely workmanlike midfield, which is why I’m backing Bosnia ahead of the 7/5 Super Eagles. Iran look, on paper, the weakest side at the competition. They got through the Asian qualifying section thanks to good defending (eight goals scored and only two conceded in eight games), but that defence could be found out. The attack looks toothless, and 5/4 on them to score under 1.5 group goals looks a banker.

Group F - Top Bets:
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score over 3.5 Group Stage Goals at 20/23
Iran to score under 1.5 Group Stage Goals at 5/4

Group G

Group G is split in two. Germany and Portugal, whom everyone expects to qualify, and Ghana and USA. Germany look one of the teams to oppose this year. They have had four golden opportunities to win a tournament since winning Euro 1996, and have missed every one. Now, Joachim Löw manages a side blighted by injuries and key men out of form. The loss of Marco Reus will hit them particularly hard. They are 4/7 to win the group.

This leaves the door open for Portugal to take top spot off the Germans. If Cristiano Ronaldo is fully fit and firing then the 27/10 on Paulo Bento’s side winning the group has great appeal. Sceptics will look at a lack of depth in quality behind Ronaldo, but the whole team is geared up to get the best out of the Real Madrid man.

The USA do not look as strong as in recent years. Klinsmann’s men will travel 10,188 to and from games - more than any team, and that will take its toll. I also have huge doubts that Jozy Altidore, despite his good international record, is up to it at the highest level of soccer. They are 2/1 to qualify, and while they won’t be thrashed, I’m sorry to say, guys, that it’ll be an early flight home.

Ghana hold more appeal at 3/1 to disrupt the ‘big two’ in this group. They have an abundance of talent going forward, with Andre Ayew, Kevin-Prince Boateng and Kwadwo Asamoah behind Asamoah Gyan. While not blessed with quite the same stardust, they have a better team ethic than fellow West Africans Ivory Coast, and this should stand them in good stead.

Group G - Top Bets:
Portugal to win Group G at 27/10

Group H

Leading the betting in Group H are Belgium. Congratulations to those who backed them at monster prices a few years ago (they were 500/1 after the last World Cup), but they hype seems to have gone too far and I can’t have any of the 4/7 on them winning a competitive section. Some of their stars, like Marouane Fellaini, have had poor seasons, and there is a real issue at full-back, where they play two players who are naturally centre-backs.

Russia have been hit hard by an injury to captain Roman Shirokov, and with the 2018 competition being hosted in Russia, this team looks like a work in progress. A good result against South Korea in their first game is certainly realistic, and I’d be happier backing them to win the group at 2/1 than Belgium. South Korea had a dodgy qualifying campaign, but they are excellent at raising their game for the big time. They never shirk away from a fight and are 9/5 to qualify.

Algeria have been written off as a no-hoper, and it’s very hard to see why. In Sofiane Feghouli, Islam Slimani and Hilal Soudani they have an abundance of creativity, while Madjid Bougherra commands the defence well. They’re not going to win the World Cup of course, but they seem well worth a punt at 9/2 to qualify.

Group H - Top Bets:
Algeria to qualify at 9/2

 

[CNOTES]

WCup Top Bets - Group A-D

June 8, 2014

Top Group Bets: E - F - G - H

GROUP A

Group A is all about Brazil, the 3/1 favorites to win the tournament. With home advantage, an excellent team with an even better team spirit, the Seleção should have trouble getting through what is a fairly straightforward group of Croatia, Mexico and Cameroon. Scolari’s men are 15/1 not to qualify, and a $10 accumulator on three wins for the Brazilians would only pay out $19.42 with Sportsbook.ag.

Many see this as a straight fight between Croatia and Mexico for second spot. Mexico have incredibly gone out at the last 16 at each of the last five tournaments, but I think that run could come to an end in Brazil. They were very goal shy in qualifying and consecutive 1-0 friendly defeats in the run-up to the competition have not changed that perception.

Croatia at 11/10 make more appeal than the 23/20 Mexicans. They have a superb midfield with Luka Modric, Ivan Rakitic and Mateo Kovacic all capable of terrifying defences, while front man Mario Mandzukic is a clinical finisher of the highest order. Cameroon will be competitive, but squad infighting has led to a dreadful recent World Cup record. While the defence is solid enough, their midfield looks very short on creativity. They are 9/2 to qualify.

Group A - Top Bets:
Croatia to qualify at 11/10

GROUP B

Group B is the ‘Group of Death’. Spain are the defending holders. The Netherlands is the most major football country never to have won the World Cup, and Chile have an attack that will score goals against anyone. And then Australia. Spain are the rightful favourites, and their squad has vast experience: They have five players with over 100 caps, and this will prove vital. They are the 5/7 favourites to win the group, but it might be worth backing them not to score many goals. They are the major tournament 1-0 specialists, and it may be worth having a wedge on them to score under 5.5 goals at 50/69.

Chile are the top bet in this group at 5/6 to qualify over the Netherlands, who are 4/7. The Dutch are another team that are often beset by disharmony in the camp, and Chile’s energetic pressing game will make them very difficult opponents. Defence is an issue, but in Alexis Sanchez and Arturo Vidal they have two real superstars. An inexperienced Australia will be totally out of their depth here. Many experienced names have retired since 2010, and the new generation have yet to convince. A treble on three defeats for the Soceroos is a 2.04/1 shot.

Group B - Top Bets:
Chile to qualify at 5/6
Spain to score under 5.5 tournament goals at 50/69

Group C

Group C looks the hardest of all to call, with no truly outstanding team and no real weak link. Colombia are the 5/7 favourites to win the group. The loss of Falcao means they are not as tempting a bet to go far as they once were, but in Carlos Bacca, Teofilo Gutierrez and Jackson Martinez they have three able deputies who will share the goalscoring load. I don’t see them getting beyond the quarters, but they should navigate their way through this group.

This is the last chance for this golden generation of Ivory Coast players to make a mark at a World Cup, after group stage exits in difficult groups in 2006 and 2010. They are 10/11 to qualify here, but this to me looks overpriced. They still struggle to find the right balance and the defence is dodgy. I’d swerve them in favour of Japan at 11/10. In Shinji Okazaki they have finally found a reliable goalscorer, and Shinki Kagawa, Hiroshi Kiyotake and Keisuke Honda all contribute well in an exciting team.

Greece are the outsiders and will be what Greece has been since they won Euro 2004: dour, defensive and hard-working. At 2/1 they cannot be written off and always have a shock up their sleeve, but forward Kostas Mitroglou has hardly played since December and is a key part of their team.

Group C - Top Bets:
Japan to qualify at 11/10

Group D

Of the 19 FIFA World Cups, teams in Group D have won seven of them. England, Italy and Uruguay all have huge footballing pedigree and this looks like another fiendishly difficult section to call. Of these three teams, it is Uruguay who I think have what it takes to come top of the pile. The draw has come out perfectly for them, with group minnows Costa Rica first up followed by England, then the Italians. If they beat Costa Rica they can afford to play it safe against the tougher opponents. Their game is to defend deep and counter-attack, and in Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez they have two of the world’s great strikers. I’m happy to take the 8/5 on them winning the group.

England and Italy are almost impossible to split. Italy are the favourites to qualify at 8/5, with the Three Lions at 2/1. I have them neck and neck. Italy knocked England out of Euro 2012 on penalties after dominating a goalless match, but England have improved their attack since then, while there are still big question marks over Italy’s forward line with Ciro Immobile relatively unproven and Mario Balotelli predictably unpredictable.

Rather unusually, England’s weakness is probably the defence, where there is a lack of real leadership after the retirements of John Terry and Ashley Cole. Glen Johnson continually looks vulnerable at right-back. Their strength is the youthful pace of their attack, but Hodgson is a safety-first manager who can be reluctant to give full freedom to his most creative players. Costa Rica stand little chance of qualifying at 10/1, but they could throw a spanner in the works with a pesky draw. This is most likely to come against Italy, who have a history of being inept at disposing of inferior opposition.

Group D - Top Bets:
Uruguay to win the group at 8/5

 

[CNOTES]

Current Form - Group E-H

June 10, 2014

Group A-D

In this piece, we’re breaking down each group in much more detail, going through the final stage of qualification for each team initially, breaking down their last 10 games (thru June 6) on the pitch overall followed by some qualitative analysis on recent form & perhaps what we can expect from a gambling angle.

Each group will have 3 pieces:

1 - Final stage of qualification results
2 - Last 10 match results
3 - Analysis

Before analyzing each group, please note the qualification comments on the two teams below:

Group E
France: Won playoff vs. Ukraine for bid. 2-0 loss at Ukraine, 3-0 win at home (aggregate 3-2)

Group G
Portugal: Won playoff vs. Sweden for bid. 1-0 win at home, 3-2 win at Sweden (aggregate 4-2)
Group E
World Cup June 6th Final Stage of Qualification Group W/O TM
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW GF + - +/- AVG Rank
SWITZERLAND 6 UEFA 7 0 3 17 1.70 0.60 1.10 68.00 18
ECUADOR 26 CONMEBOL 7 5 4 20 1.25 1.00 0.25 29.50 1
FRANCE 17 UEFA 5 1 2 15 1.88 0.75 1.13 60.00 14
HONDURAS 33 CONCACAF 4 3 3 13 1.30 1.20 0.10 34.60 6
Group E
World Cup June 6th Recent Form - Last Ten Games (Thru 6/4) Goal Margin
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW + - +/-
SWITZERLAND 6 UEFA 7 1 2 17 9 8
ECUADOR 26 CONMEBOL 2 3 5 13 15 (2)
FRANCE 17 UEFA 6 1 3 23 5 18
HONDURAS 33 CONCACAF 3 4 3 14 22 (8)
Analysis - Group E

Switzerland: Enter competition with just one loss over their last 10 games, but they have just faced three fellow World Cup teams going 1-1-1 beating Brazil, tying Croatia & losing at South Korea. They have scored in each of their last 10gms while subsequently keeping six clean sheets. Decent track record at World Cup, will be in the mix for certain - who wouldn't be beating Brazil recently?

Ecuador: La Tri is one of six World Cup teams who have a negative goal differential over their last 10 games (the 2nd in their group). Over their last five they have gone 1-1-3 vs. 5 World Cup teams beating Australia, losing to Mexico while tying England, Netherlands & Honduras - hard to get a solid feel on this team obviously. Goals are plentiful in their games as they have played just one 0-0 draw since 7/3/11! Expect wide open play and a lively underdog here - in this questionable group Ecuador, especially playing on their home continent has a legitimate chance to reach the knockout stage for the 1st time since 2006.

France: France remains a defensive juggernaut holding clean sheets in seven of their last 10 outings although just three of those have come against World Cup teams, one of which was a 6-0 win over Australia. In their last six home games they went 5-0-1, outscoring opponents 18-1; in six road games they are just 1-3-2 getting outscored 4-8 (all four of their goals scored came in a win at Belarus on 9/10/13). Goal scoring will be a concern, defense will not so under plays seem to hold value with the French.

Honduras: Just three wins over their last 10 all by 1 goal over Venezuela, Costa Rica and Mexico. Have allowed two or more goals in seven of last 10 games while scoring two goals in six of last 10. No question the biggest longshot of group, difficult to envision many scenarios where they reach knockout stage.
Group F
World Cup June 6th Final Stage of Qualification Group W/O TM
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW GF + - +/- AVG Rank
ARGENTINA 5 CONMEBOL 9 2 5 35 2.19 0.94 1.25 32.13 5
BOS & HERZ 21 UEFA 8 1 1 30 3.00 0.60 2.40 87.60 27
IRAN 43 AFC 5 2 1 8 1.00 0.25 0.75 85.25 26
NIGERIA 44 CAF VS. ETHIOPIA 2.00 0.50 1.50 107.00 31
Group F
World Cup June 6th Recent Form - Last Ten Games (Thru 6/4) Goal Margin
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW + - +/-
ARGENTINA 5 CONMEBOL 5 1 4 19 8 11
BOS & HERZ 21 UEFA 6 4 0 18 12 6
IRAN 43 AFC 6 1 3 19 7 12
NIGERIA 44 CAF 5 1 4 17 11 6
Analysis - Group F

Argentina: Lone loss over last 10 came at Uruguay (2-3) on 10/15/13. Six of last 10 have come against fellow World Cup squads including a 2-1 win at Italy last summer. Struggled some over their last three going just 1-0-2 with scoring margin 2-0. Still clear favorite in relatively weak group.

Bosnia & Herzegovina: Head into this one winning their last two vs. fellow World Cup squads beating Ivory Coast 2-1 and Mexico 1-0. They have virtually no history in the World Cup and not many trends to follow based on recent competition leaves them squarely in the mix to grab that 2nd spot to the knockout round.

Iran: Despite record to left and goal differential they head into this competition in very poor form drawing three straight vs. Angola, Montenegro and Belarus (1-1 aggregate) which followed a home loss to Guinea (1-2). Iran has only faced one World Cup team, South Korea, who they beat 1-0 way back on 6/18/13. This country is the clear longshot in the group, and frankly doesn't seem to have much of a chance.

Nigeria: Has played four draws over their last five, three of which were 0-0. All three of those 0-0 draws came against fellow World Cup teams (Ghana, Mexico, Greece), which were the only three WC teams they faced. Nigeria will be competitive in this group, battling Bosnia for that 2nd bid to the knockout stage.
Group G
World Cup June 6th Final Stage of Qualification Group W/O TM
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW GF + - +/- AVG Rank
GERMANY 2 UEFA 9 0 1 36 3.60 1.00 2.60 87.80 28
PORTUGAL 4 UEFA 6 1 3 20 2.00 0.90 1.10 77.20 23
GHANA 37 CAF VS. EGYPT 3.50 1.50 2.00 36.00 8
USA 13 CONCACAF 7 2 1 15 1.50 0.80 0.70 38.60 11
Group G
World Cup June 6th Recent Form - Last Ten Games (Thru 6/4) Goal Margin
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW + - +/-
GERMANY 2 UEFA 6 0 4 22 9 13
PORTUGAL 4 UEFA 6 1 3 20 10 10
GHANA 37 CAF 4 3 3 6 5 1
USA 13 CONCACAF 6 2 2 15 8 7
Analysis - Group G

Germany: The Germans head into the World Cup as the only unbeaten team over their last 10 matches. Four of their last five have come against fellow World Cup squads & they have gone 2-0-2 beating England and Chile 1-0, while tying Italy and Cameroon. With Germany having reached at least the semifinals in the last three World Cups, but having not won the title since 1990 they enter in top form and are amongst the short list of favorites.

Portugal: Portugal has faced very strong competition over their last 10 with five coming against fellow World Cup teams including Brazil and Netherlands and another two vs. Sweden in a UEFA home & home playoff for a bid. They have not lost a game since 9/10/13 vs. Brazil in Massachusetts while allowing more than one goal just once since that game (3-2 win at Sweden 11/19/13). Ronaldo has been playing very well in qualification & Champions league, thus Portugal will be seeking just their 2nd appearance past the round of 16 since 1994 - but it has a tough group to overcome.

Ghana: As evidenced by recent form Ghana really struggles to score goals, but does play solid defense. Their schedule in qualification and of late is not top notch as they have only faced two fellow World Cup teams over their last 10 (0-0 vs. Nigeria, 0-1 loss to Netherlands), but their defense held up well against the high powered Dutch on the road. Ghana has not scored more than one goal since a 6-1 win over Egypt on 10/15/13 which could be a big concern especially in this group. Expect low-scoring games when Ghana is involved, but it’s unlikely they will score enough to reach knockout stage.

United States: This may be the best USA squad to ever enter the World Cup, but recent comments by head coach Klinsman leave many scratching their heads about what to expect from the Red, White & Blue this time around. Outside of Mexico, whom they have dominated over the last decade plus, they faced just one World Cup team over their last 10, a 2-0 win over lower tier South Korea. Offense doesn't appear to be an issue, but they have struggled defensively against teams that are legitimate challengers especially from UEFA. Most likely over bets will be solid and getting thre points from Ghana/Portugal games will be critical to reach the knockout stage for the 3rd time in 4 World Cups.
Group H
World Cup June 6th Final Stage of Qualification Group W/O TM
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW GF + - +/- AVG Rank
BELGIUM 11 UEFA 8 0 2 18 1.80 0.40 1.40 39.20 12
ALGERIA 22 CAF VS. BURKINA FASO 1.50 1.50 0.00 60.00 14
RUSSIA 19 UEFA 7 2 1 20 2.00 0.50 1.50 74.20 21
SOUTH KOREA 57 AFC 4 2 2 13 1.63 0.88 0.75 81.75 24
Group H
World Cup June 6th Recent Form - Last Ten Games (Thru 6/4) Goal Margin
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW + - +/-
BELGIUM 11 UEFA 5 2 3 16 11 5
ALGERIA 22 CAF 8 1 1 19 8 11
RUSSIA 19 UEFA 6 1 3 19 7 12
SOUTH KOREA 57 AFC 4 6 0 10 15 (5)
Analysis - Group H

Belgium: Belgium is a popular sleeper selection this year but the numbers don't really support that. Of their last 10 games, five have come against fellow World Cup teams and they have gone 1-2-2 beating Croatia 2-1 on road, losing to Colombia and Japan while tying France and Ivory Coast. Outside of a 5-1 win over Luxembourg on 5/26/14 they have just a +1 goal differential over their last 10. They only held one clean sheet in the five vs. World Cup teams we just mentioned, and allowed 2+ goals in four of those games. The group does them a favor not being too strong.

Algeria: Algeria, with eight wins over their last 10 games (2nd to Brazil’s 9), heads into this competition with confidence despite not facing many strong clubs. In fact, Algeria has not faced another World Cup team since a 1/30/13 tie vs. Ivory Coast! They can score goals as evidenced by not being shutout once since 1/26/13 vs. Togo; combine that with the lack of competition & overs are probably strong plays in their games. No question Algeria is the longest shot to advance to the knockout stage from group h

Russia: Russia is a very solid, not talked about often club as they head into the World Cup with just one loss over their last 10 games, which was 10 games ago at Northern Ireland (0-1). Since then they have dominated their opponents scoring in all nine games, while holding three clean sheets defensively and not allowing more than one goal in any game - matter of fact they have not allowed more than one goal since 11/14/12 vs. USA. Their competition has not been truly top notch, but this will be a hungry team since they have never advanced past the group stage.

South Korea: Surprisingly South Korea has advanced to the knockout stage in two of the last three World Cups; this time around, even in a weak group, it will be a clear uphill battle as they, along with Algeria, are the two longest shots of Group H. They are one of just three teams (Brazil, Bosnia) to not have a draw over their last 10 games - but they also have six losses, the most of any World Cup team. In 2014 they have beaten a pair of World Cup teams in Costa Rica and Greece (in Athens), and they have not had a 0-0 draw since summer of 2013 - lean on overs in their games for certain. Can South Korea surprise again? It's likely they will need 3 points against either Belgium or Russia to do so - they recently dropped a 2-1 decision vs. Russia on 11/19/13.

 

[CNOTES]

Current Form - Group A-D

June 10, 2014

Group E-H

In this piece, we’re breaking down each group in much more detail, going through the final stage of qualification for each team initially, breaking down their last 10 games (thru June 6) on the pitch overall followed by some qualitative analysis on recent form & perhaps what we can expect from a gambling angle.

Each group will have 3 pieces:

1 - Final stage of qualification results
2 - Last 10 match results
3 - Analysis

Before analyzing each group, please note the qualification comments on the six teams below:

Group A
Brazil: Qualified automatically as host nation
Cameroon: CAF's final stage of qualification is a home & home vs. one opponent
Croatia: Won playoff vs. Iceland for bid. 0-0 draw at Iceland, 2-0 win at home (aggregate 2-0)
Mexico: Won Inter-Continental playoff vs. New Zealand for bid. 5-1 win at home, 4-2 win at New Zealand (aggregate 9-3)

Group C
Greece: Won playoff vs. Romania for bid. 3-1 win at home, 1-1 draw at Romania (aggregate 4-2)

Group D
Uruguay: Won Inter-Continental playoff vs. Jordan for bid. 5-0 win at Jordan, 0-0 draw at home (aggregate 5-0)

Group A
World Cup June 6th Final Stage of Qualification Group W/O TM
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW GF + - +/- AVG Rank
BRAZIL 3 CONMEBOL Host Country
CROATIA 18 UEFA 5 3 2 12 1.20 0.90 0.30 37.80 10
MEXICO 20 CONCACAF 2 3 5 7 0.70 0.90 (0.20) 37.20 9
CAMEROON 56 CAF vs. TUNISIA 2.00 0.50 1.50 48.00 13
Group A
World Cup June 6th Recent Form - Last Ten Games (Thru 6/4) Goal Margin
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW + - +/-
BRAZIL 3 CONMEBOL 9 1 0 32 3 29
CROATIA 18 UEFA 4 3 3 13 12 1
MEXICO 20 CONCACAF 6 2 2 24 10 14
CAMEROON 56 CAF 3 4 3 12 13 (1)
Analysis - Group A

Brazil: Dominating of late, only loss (0-1) at Switzerland on 8/14/13. Have not yielded more than one goal since Confederations Cup win over Italy 4-2 on 6/22/13. They have reached the knockout stage every World Cup since 1966 & no question that streak will continue in 2014 - but they have much bigger goals especially with the competition taking place on their soil.

Croatia: Only kept two clean sheets over last 10 games both vs. Iceland. Only win vs. World Cup team over South Korea on 9/10/13. Croatia has only played one 0-0 draw since at least summer of 2012 - meaning over plays could be solid selections here. Have not escaped group stage since 1998 France & that is clearly their goal here - target 2nd place which should be accomplished vs. lesser teams Mexico & Cameroon.

Mexico: First loss (0-1) of 2014 vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina on June 3. Only two of last 10 games saw combined goals less than 3 (over bets look solid perhaps during world cup). New coach Miguel Herrara seems to be getting more out of El Tri than recent past managers, especially offensively. Strong record escaping group play as they have reached knockout stage in each of last 5 World Cups, but have not reached quarterfinals since 1986 - that's clearly the goal this year.

Cameroon: Struggled of late outside home win over Tunisia 4-1. Only faced two fellow World Cup teams: lost to Portugal 5-1 on 3/5/14, tied Germany 2-2 on 6/1/14. Seem to be longshot of group considering they have not reached knockout stage since 1990 with higher ranked teams & have not faced strong competition much - and when they did it often did not turn out well.
Group B
World Cup June 6th Final Stage of Qualification Group W/O TM
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW GF + - +/- AVG Rank
SPAIN 1 UEFA 6 0 2 14 1.75 0.38 1.38 64.00 17
NETHERLANDS 15 UEFA 9 0 1 34 3.40 0.50 2.90 81.80 25
CHILE 14 CONMEBOL 9 6 1 29 1.81 1.56 0.25 31.00 2
AUSTRALIA 62 AFC 3 1 4 12 1.50 0.88 0.63 73.00 19
Group B
World Cup June 6th Recent Form - Last Ten Games (Thru 6/4) Goal Margin
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW + - +/-
SPAIN 1 UEFA 7 2 1 15 8 7
NETHERLANDS 15 UEFA 5 1 4 20 8 12
CHILE 14 CONMEBOL 6 2 2 22 11 11
AUSTRALIA 62 AFC 3 5 2 14 24 (10)
Analysis - Group B

Spain:Ten games ago was loss at Brazil in Confederations Cup finale 3-0. Since they have scored two goals in seven of nine and only loss was 1-0 at South Africa. They have reached the knockout stage in every World Cup but one since 1982 (1998 France) and are clearly the favorite of this group & to return to the championship game at the least. Keep an eye on a variety of injuries that could derail their chances.

Netherlands: Outside of an 8-1 win at home over Hungary on 10/11/13 the Dutch scoring margin is just 12-7 (nine gms). They have not scored more than two goals outside aforementioned Hungary game since 6/7/13 vs Indonesia. Just 1-1-3 last five vs. World Cup teams with lone win 1-0 over Ghana at home on 5/31/14. Concern for Dutch is evident.

Chile: Perhaps no team is more prepared for the World Cup as seven of their last 10 games has come against World Cup teams including a tie vs. Spain & a pair of one-goal defeats on road against Brazil & Germany. Chile has scored less than two goals just twice over last 10 vs. aforementioned Germany & Brazil. Solid sleeper here.

Australia: Outside of a pair of 6-0 road losses to France & Brazil they are near level in record and goal differential. Their only three wins came when they pitched shutout. Longshot of group for certain, perhaps of entire tournament despite escaping group stage in 2006.
Group C
World Cup June 6th Final Stage of Qualification Group W/O TM
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW GF + - +/- AVG Rank
COLOMBIA 8 CONMEBOL 9 4 3 27 1.69 0.81 0.88 31.7 3
GREECE 12 UEFA 8 1 1 12 1.20 0.40 0.80 89.40 30
IVORY COAST 23 CAF VS. SENEGAL 2.00 1.00 1.00 74.00 20
JAPAN 46 AFC 5 1 2 16 2.00 0.63 1.38 77.00 22
Group C
World Cup June 6th Recent Form - Last Ten Games (Thru 6/4) Goal Margin
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW + - +/-
COLOMBIA 8 CONMEBOL 5 1 4 14 9 5
GREECE 12 UEFA 6 1 3 10 4 6
IVORY COAST 23 CAF 5 2 3 21 14 7
JAPAN 46 AFC 6 3 1 21 15 6
Analysis - Group C

Colombia: Only loss over last 10 was at Uruguay (0-2) on 9/10/13. Last three outings were draws including less than inspiring efforts vs. Tunisia and Senegal. Recent form and lack of experience may be cause for concern, as is the loss of striker Radamel Falcao to injury.

Greece: A goal in three matches thus far in 2014 (pair of 0-0 draws vs. fellow World Cup squads Portugal and Nigeria along with 2-0 loss at home to South Korea). Have not scored more than two goals in a match since 6/4/11 vs. Malta at home! Will likely play tight to vest looking for draws - thus playing draws & unders in their matches likely solid selections.

Ivory Coast: Since beating Gambia back-to-back 3-0 and Tanzania in next outing 4-2 during WC qualifying they are just 2-2-3 with goal differential of (1). In last 10 have faced three fellow World Cup teams going 0-2-1 with lone point a 2-2 tie vs. Belgium. Since aforementioned games vs. Gambia both teams have scored in their last three games thus over plays may be solid here. May be longest shot of group to reach knockout stage.

Japan: Unbeaten over l5 dating back to 1-0 road loss at Belarus on 10/15/13. Have faced five World Cup teams over last 10 games going 3-1-1 with lone loss to Uruguay, draw with Netherlands and beating Ghana, Belgium and Costa Rica by combined 9-4 score. Having exceeded expectations reaching the knockout stage in two of last three World Cups no reason in this weak group the Japanese cannot advance again. A case could even be made they are the favorite.
Group D
World Cup June 6th Final Stage of Qualification Group W/O TM
Country FIFA Rank Region W L DRAW GF + - +/- AVG Rank
URUGUAY 7 CONMEBOL 7 5 4 25 1.56 1.56 0.00 31.88 4
COSTA RICA 28 CONCACAF 5 2 3 13 1.30 0.70 0.60 35.60 7
ENGLAND 10 UEFA 6 0 4 31 3.10 0.40 2.70 88.80 29
ITALY 9 UEFA 6 0 4 19 1.90 0.90 1.00 61.00 16
Group D

 

[CNOTES]

Team Analysis - E-H

June 11, 2014

Group A-D

With Brazil knee-deep in soccer fans worldwide, the 5th largest country in the world - which occupies nearly half of South America and an Amazon rainforest that constitutes almost half of the rainforests on Earth – will have the eyes of the international football world glued to its twelve World Cup venues for the next 31 days.

While soccer is growing in the United States at all levels, it’s interest in the sport is a splinter among a forest next to the global passion shared by futball aficionados worldwide.

As fans, though, Americans put their money where their mouth is, with only host Brazil buying more tickets for this event than the United States.

Here is a brief snapshot of what each team from the final four groups brings to the table in this year’s event, with each team’s FIFA rank in parenthesis.

GROUP E

Ecuador (28) – For all the fervor Ecuador brings to this tournament – its third in the last four events – they are heartbroken and hamstrung with the death of its leading scorer, 27-year old Christian “Chucho” Benitez to heart failure last summer, along with defender Jayro Campos and midfielder Segundo Castillo out with injuries… coach Reinaldo Ruea coached Honduras to its second World Cup berth in 2010… midfielder Christian Noboa, who joined the club in 2012, has played the last six years in Russia.

France (16) – Les Blues left the 2010 World Cup red-faced following a mutiny and a boycott of practice… The French have reached the final four five times, winning the event in 1998. On the other 11 occasions since WWII they have gone out in the group stage or failed to qualify… winger Franck Ribery, arguably the third-best player in the world, is out with a bad back… coach Didier Deschamps was France’s team captain in its 1998 World Cup championship campaign.

Honduras (30) – One of two teams that failed to score in the 2010 World Cup, Los Catrachos managed wins over Mexico and the United States during the qualifying game … Honduras has never won a World Cup game, but facing Switzerland in the Amazon jungle (Manaus) lends hope to that possibility… striker Jerry Bengston scored nine goals in qualifying games… head coach Luis Fernando Suarez took over in 2011 and has led Honduras to the semifinals of the 2011 and 2013 CONCACAF Gold Cup tournament.

Switzerland (8) – The Swiss went 7-0-3 in qualifying against a very weak group (49th ranked Iceland was second)… watch this team in four years in Russia as starting 11 average age is 25… became the first team in World Cup history to be eliminated without conceding a goal in 2006… defeated eventual champion Spain, 1-0, in 2010 World Cup.

GROUP F

Argentina (7) - Scored 35 goals in South America in qualifying, most of any team… a two-time winner in the event in 1978 and 1986), and a 2nd place finisher in 1990, Albiceleste’s best finish since was as a Round of 16 team in 1994… 4-time World Player of the Year, Lionel Messi, will be playing in his third World Cup… the World Cup has been held in South America four times with South American teams winning every time... many locals considered it “divine intervention” on the part of Buenos Aires-born Pope Francis – a fervent soccer fan – when the country was drawn into arguably the weakest of the World Cup’s eight groups.

Bosnia-Herzegovina (25) – First World Cup appearance for the Dragons, the only team making it’s debut this summer… went 8-1-1 in UEFA, outscoring its opponents by 24 goals… with Manchester United’s Edin Dzeko (averaged a goal a game during qualifying) and former St. Louis University All-AmericanVedad Ibisevic up front, they can score in bunches… a vulnerable defense figures to put pressure on goalkeeper Amsir Begovic.

Iran (37) – Team Melli features a veteran coach in Carlos Quiroz who has managed Portugal’s national team and coach with Real Madrid and in the USA… team relies on foreign based imports who qualify for Iranian citizenship… due to economic and political sanctions, they went 119 days without a game after qualifying… the cash-strapped team’s short stay will be at an airport hotel while players are banned from participating in traditional postgame exchange of jerseys with their opponents.

Nigeria (44) – Fifth World Cup appearance for the Super Eagles who have twice reach the second round… won the 2013 African Nations Cup for the first time in 20 years and then won the Under-17 World Cup… after going winless in its last two World Cups, Nigeria’s president briefly banned the team from international competition… last World Cup win was in 1998… lost 1-0 to Argentina in the finals of the 2008 Olympics.

GROUP G

Germany (2) – A three-time winner in the World Cup, sparing no expense, the Germany soccer federation built a training center in Brazil complete with housing units, a soccer filed, a media center and treatment facilities… Die Nationalmannschaft scored 36 goals in qualifying - the most of any team in the European zone – and has registered 222 goals in World Cup games, the most of any country… midfielder Mesut Ozil scored eight goals in 12 games during qualifying.

Ghana (28) – The Black Stars were the only one of six African nations to survive group play… played in only two World Cup and knocked out the United States by a 2-1 score both times… led by the Asamoah’s – midfielder Kwadwo Asamoah and super-fast striker Asamoah Gyan. Kwadwo was named the country’s top player the last two years; Gyan’s goal beat the U.S. in the 2010 World Cup… coach James Kwesi Appiah is the first black African coach to take a team to the World Cup.

Portugal (3) – Classic underperformer in this tournament, despite the presence of superstar Cristiano Ronaldo , the world’s highest paid soccer player who has scored 49 goals in 110 international games… Ronaldo has over 25 million followers on Twitter… team has been characterized as “Cristiano Ronaldo and 10 other guys.”… tied Israel two times in qualifying games… coach Paulo Bento replaced Carlos Queiroz in 2010. Queiroz will coach Iran the this year’s World Cup.

United States (14) – 9,000 miles of travel in Brazil awaits the Americans… best chance to advance will be to beat Ghana in opener and draw with Portugal… much hyped dual-nationalist squad with four players on roster of German descent… 10 players on roster from MLS teams… solid in goal with Tim Howard and in the midfield with Michael Bradley. Inexperienced back line is a question… Team USA hasn’t gotten a World Cup goal from a striker since Brian McBride in 2002… DaMarcus Beasley becomes the first U.S. player to appear in four World Cup games.

GROUP H

Algeria (25) – The Desert Foxes have never made it past the group stage and needed a playoff win over Burkina Faso to quality this year… haven’t won a major trophy since capturing the African Cup of Nations in 1990… a young and inexperienced team, Bosnian coach Vahid Halilhodzic often goes to his bench mixing and matching lineups to take advantage of opponent’s weaknesses… striker Islam Slimai of Sporting Lisbon has nine goals in 17 appearances with Algeria.

Belgium (12) – The Red Devils have soared more than 50 spots in the FIFA rankings since 2009 and are considered by many to be a dark-horse in this event… young roster is loaded with players from the top clubs around the world… midfielder Eden Hazard is commonly referred to as the “Belgian Messi.”… veteran captain Vincent Kompany (28) is considered of the best center backs in the world… will be the least-traveled team in the group stage, having to cover fewer than 1,400 miles for its three games.

Russia (18) – Team Sbornaya will host the 2018 World Cup… only two of the 42 players called up in the last year compete for teams outside the Russian Premier League. Neither made the World Cup roster… five core players are older than 30… this is Russia’s second World Cup since the breakup of the Soviet union… best result was a 4th place finish in 1966… prolific striker Alelsandr Kerzhakov has scored 50 goal in last 94 games for his RPL team… defensive-minded coach Fabio Capello, who managed England for four years after stints with Real Madrid and A.C. Milan, took over in 2012 and guided the tam past Portugal in World Cup qualifying games, conceding just five goals in 10 games.

South Korea (55) – When co-hosting the 2002 World Cup the Taeguk Warriors were the first and only Asian team to reach the semis… this is South Korea’s eighth consecutive, and ninth overall, World Cup appearance, having reached the knockout stage in two of the previous three World Cups… a young team with only one player older than 30… dangerous striker Son-Heung-Min from Bayer Leverkusen is a legitimate scoring threat.

 

[CNOTES]

Team Analysis - A-D

June 11, 2014


When Spain captured the World Cup Trophy for the first time in 2010 little did they realize only two countries have managed to win back-to-back titles in World Cup history.

Furthermore, no European team has won the World Cup in South America.

They say there is a first time for everything, although oddsmakers disagree with Brazil (3/1) and Argentina (4/1) listed as favorites to hoist the 2014 Cup, with Spain the 3rd choice at 13/2 (Bet $100 to win $650).

Here is a brief snapshot of what each team from the first four groups brings to the table in this year’s event, with each team’s FIFA rank in parenthesis.

GROUP A

Brazil (4)– Only 5 of 23 players on its roster return from 2010… won last year’s Confederations Cup (no reigning Confederations Cup champion has won a World Cup)… have not lost a competitive game at home since September, 1975, a string of 57 games… the host nation has won the World Cup five times.

Cameroon(50)– Forward Samuel Eto’o has won four African Player of the Year awards… scored two goals in three games in 2010 World Cup while failing to win a point… beat Argentina in 1990 opening round match en route to reaching the quarterfinals… seventh World Cup appearance, most by an African nation.

Croatia (20)– First competed in World Cup in 1998, seven years after declaring independence from Yugoslavia… Real Madrid’s Luka Modric is known as “The Croation Cryuff” for his elegant passing skills… stunned here-time champion Germany. 3-0, in its third place finish in 1998… striker Mario Mandzukic is suspended for the first game for a red card in the final qualifying game.

Mexico (19)– Coach Miguel Herrera forbids his players from alcohol, sex and eating red meat while in Brazil… El Tri went through four coaches before grabbing one of the last qualifying spots with win over New Zealand in November - and then proceeded to go 6-0-2 after … lost to Argentina, 3-1, in the Round of 16 in 2010 World Cup.

GROUP B

Australia (59)– First team to arrive in Brazil. Set up camp 16 days early… Only two of the Socceroos starters are older than 29… Tim Cahill, 34, is the team’s all-time scoring leader… Aussies hold the record for the most one-sided wins in international soccer history, a 31-0 romp over American Samoa in a 2001 World Cup qualifier.

Chile (13)– Lost 3-0 to Brazil in the Round of 16 in 2010 World Cup… La Roja’s last three national team coaches have come from Argentina… color them dangerous: scored 29 goals in qualifying, beat England and Costa Rica, lost by a goal to Brazil and Germany and played Colombia and Spain to a draw… slogan is “For a Chilean, nothing is impossible,” based on miners trapped underground for 69 days in 2010.

Netherlands (15)– Runner-up in last year’s World Cup, the Oranje own three second-place finishes in the tournament… will open against Spain in Match 3 play, the team they lost 1-0 to in the 116th minute in the finals of the 2010 World Cup… experienced squad, with the majority of players back from the 2010 team, went 9-0-1 in qualifying games, finishing +29 in net goal differential… Bad news for opponents: Robin van Persie is healthy again and is one of the best goal-scorers in the world… Van Persie, recently named team captain, has nearly 5 million followers in the Twitter universe.

Spain (1)– With wins in the last two Euros and the 2010 World Cup, in which they allowed 6 goals in 19 matches, Spain is the only country to win three consecutive major international championships…the Spaniards became the first team to ever win a World Cup last season after losing its opening match… it’s been 52 years since there has been a repeat winner in the World Cup.

GROUP C

Colombia (5)– First appearance in the World Cup on 16 years when Carlos Valderrama was on the team… star player Radamel Falcao tore his ACL in January and was left off the roster… Falcao, who scored 8 goals in 11 qualifying games last year, has more than 4.5 million followers on Twitter… 22-year old midfielder James Rodriguez assumes the scoring load for Los Cafeteros… coach Jose Pekerman, an Argentine, managed Argentina in the 2006 World Cup.

Greece (10)– The Greeks won the 2004 European Championship but has never advanced out of World Cup group play… play a low scoring, boring style of soccer, allowing 6 goals in 12 qualifying matches… have lost five of six World Cup matches in two previous World Cups, outscored 15-2… professional soccer was not played in Greece until 1979. Fifteen years later they qualified for their first World Cup.

Ivory Coast (21)– The Elephants have gone 22 years since winning its last major title in the 1992 African Cup of Nations… Aging forward and two-time African Footballer of the Year 36-year old Didier Drogba leads a veteran team that can outrun and overpower most of its opponents… unbeaten in qualifying games this year… have never made it out of group play.

Japan (47)– The Blue Samurai has reached the Round of 16 in 2002 and 2010… outscored opponents 30-8 in qualifying games but lost all three Confederation Cup group games to Brazil… first team to qualify in each of the last three World Cups… Manchester United’s Shinji Kagawa and Milan’s Keisuke Honda are among other with a European pedigree… have never won a game beyond group play.

GROUP D

Costa Rica (34)–Second to the U.S. with five wins in 10 games in CONCACAF qualifying, including a 2-1 win over Mexico… they ended the United States 12-game winning streak in September… leading scorer Alvaro Sabrio is out with a broken foot… Los Ticos is the only Central American nation to win a World Cup game.

England (11)– World-class striker Wayne Rooney headlines a relatively non-descript roster… Manchester United’s Joe Hart is solid in goal… the Three Lions have gone unbeaten in 14 games since Roy Hodgson took over as coach two years ago… Hodgson had players begin training camp working out in three layers of clothing to simulate Brazil’s heat and humidity.

Italy (9) – The Azzurri went undefeated through qualifying but left home players responsible for nine of its 19 goals in those 10 qualifiers… New Jersey-born striker Guisippe Rossi, Floretina’s top scorer with 16 goals, was among the final cuts, as he was four years ago… Milan midfielder Riccardo Montolivo broke his leg in last week’s friendly with Ireland… Mario Balotelli insists he’s the No. 1 striker in the world… Along with Brazil, the 4-star Italians are the only other team to win the World Cup twice in a row.

Uruguay (6)– Los Charruas was the first host nation to win a World Cup in 1930 and is the smallest country (3.4 million people) to win a World Cup… scored one goal or fewer 10 times in 16 CONMEBOL qualifiers, including three shutouts… Luis Suarez (fighting to return from knee surgery) is one of the top strikers in the world, leading the CONMEBOL qualifier with 11 goals in 16 World Cup qualifiers.

 

[CNOTES]

WCup Group Best Bets

June 11, 2014

By The SportsBoss

Group Analysis - A-D · Group Analysis - E-H

Regional Breakdown · Group Breakdown
In my final article prior to the World Cup competition kicking off let’s take a close look at some of the futures wagers available to us. Anyone that has followed me for any period of time knows I generally frown upon future type wagers as there are so many variables that can occur in the future that I feel the prudent sports investor should pass in most instances – but here for the World Cup it’s a smaller sample size we are playing futures on (compared to win totals in the four major sports that extend over months of action where the instances of injury or other variables greatly increases).

Format wise I will break down these wagers according to Groups – starting with A and ending with H. I will list teams in order of their current FIFA ranking (which was released on June 6th).

I also initially wrote down all prices for the futures discussed in previous pieces, and will thus comment where applicable changes in price.

Group A: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon

To Win Group: Brazil is my favorite to win this tournament so I obviously believe they are going to win their group here. The price of -400 however is the second highest amongst all the groups, just short of Argentina’s -550 to win Group F. I very rarely play any money lines that high, especially on future wagers, but in this instance I feel strongly Brazil has no trouble in this group.

To Reach Knockout Stage: Brazil has gone from -1900 to -3500 to reach the knockout stage meaning you would have to lay three thousand five hundred dollars to win just one hundred on the chance they finish either 1st or 2nd in the group. I rarely use the term LOCK, but here this would appear to be one of those rare spots to apply it – however, I would never recommend a play at that price; plus you do not need a handicapper to tell you that’s a good play – the odds do it alone. Croatia & Mexico sit at +115, while Cameroon is the longshot at +500; all three teams have not seen their odds shift much. Mexico has reached the knockout stage in each of the last four World Cups, while Croatia has not advanced that far since 1998 – however I feel Croatia is the better team this year, especially with Mexico struggling. Cameroon has an outside shot since neither Mexico nor Croatia are juggernauts, but I will pass here.

To Not Reach Knockout Stage: Similar to the above breakdown I do not suggest any plays here.

To Win World Cup: Brazil currently sits at 3/1 to win the championship & I do like that play despite the fact there is little value in that price. The shortest price amongst the other three teams is 130/1 on Mexico – but considering the 2nd place team is likely to open their knockout stage against Spain there is no value on any other Group A team.

Group B: Spain, Chile, Netherlands, Australia

To Win Group: Right away I would knock Australia out of any potential future plays here as the only one that would make sense from a team perspective is To Not Reach Knockout Stage – but considering that price is -2000 to win 100 it’s much too high. Spain is a small favorite -140 to win this group which I also like – and would recommend a play on them.

To Reach Knockout Stage: Again like Group A, I like Spain to certainly reach the knockout stage but would not suggest laying -700 to win 100. However, I do see some value in playing Chile, currently even money to advance to the knockout stage over a Netherlands team that lost in the final to Spain in the last World Cup.

To Not Reach Knockout Stage: Tying into my comment above I do see value in Netherlands here +155 (plus money) to not make it out of the group stage this year.

To Win World Cup: While I do like Spain to go deep in this tournament (who doesn’t?) I do not think the value is there at +650 for them to win back-to-back World Cups. Chile, at 40/1 odds, does seem attractive as they will be playing on their home continent, have a lot of support, and are in solid form going 6-2-2 their L10 with a +11 goal differential. However, when considering the fact they will likely face Brazil in their opening knockout stage matchup, it’s hard to pull the trigger even at those odds.

Group C: Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan

To Win Group: Colombia is the favorite to win this group, however recent injuries in particular to key striker Radamel Falcao leave their chances in peril. The longest shot of the group is Greece at +800, and I love a play on them here. They are a defense first team that plays with a ton of discipline – which I feel will really stifle both Colombia & Ivory Coast’s more reckless, offense first game plan. Over the last five World Cups Japan is the only team in this group that has advanced past the group stage in any World Cup, but I feel this year they will fall short.

To Reach Knockout Stage: All four of these teams come into the World Cup with positive goal differentials in their last ten games; that being said, with Colombia the biggest favorite to advance at -450, along with Ivory Coast & Japan also laying money at -110, I would pass with a play already on Greece to win the group.

To Not Reach Knockout Stage: Although I am not bullish on Colombia’s chances in the competition due to injuries & inexperience (despite their high FIFA ranking) I am also not going to pull the trigger at +300 that they will not reach the knockout stage, although it tempted me.

To Win World Cup: Colombia sits at 20/1, the clear favorite amongst the group with the next team Japan checking in at 140/1! Based on the fact the two teams that reach the knockout stage will likely face some combination of Uruguay, Italy or England in their opening knockout stage matchup I will pass on any of these teams having value as far as winning the championship goes.

Group D: Uruguay, Italy, England, Costa Rica

To Win Group: This is clearly the strongest group top to bottom with an average FIFA ranking of 13.5 & all four teams settling inside the Top 28. Costa Rica is the clear longshot of the group, and also the only team heading into this competition with a negative goal differential over their last ten games. No value here as I could easily see any of the top 3 teams winning this group – all three have odds between +160 & +200.

To Reach Knockout Stage: The three favorites are all priced -175 to -225, too high for such even teams. It’s also hard to make a case for Costa Rica as discussed above, even at +1000.

To Not Reach Knockout Stage: Same comments as above.

To Win World Cup: The three favorites all have 25/1 odds to win the World Cup, and frankly the only team I could see winning the championship is Uruguay as they finished 4th in 2010, are playing on their home continent this year & perhaps no striker has played better this past season than Luis Suarez. There is however some concern about the health of Suarez heading into the competition which combined with the strength of this group is enough for me to lay off playing anyone from this group to win the championship.

Group E: Switzerland, France, Ecuador, Honduras

To Win Group: I am not a huge fan of this France team especially with the recent injury to Franck Ribery, while Switzerland is overrated sitting at #6 in the FIFA rankings; Ecuador has just 2 wins over their last ten games but are very explosive offensively, while Honduras has not enjoyed any success in prior World Cups. Oddly enough Honduras has been bet to win this group as their odds have dropped from +3300 to +2000, and with the uncertainty amongst the rest of the teams in this group they are worth a very small play at long odds. Along with Group C this seems to be the most wide-open. In every World Cup at least one group is turned upside down, and this may be the group in 2014.

To Reach Knockout Stage: This is the only group that doesn’t have a team that reached the knockout stage in the prior World Cup. France is -650, very rich in my opinion for a team that leaves a lot to be desired; Ecuador & Switzerland are laying small odds while Honduras is the longshot at +600. Again, like above, I do see some value in Honduras and would recommend another small play on them here.

To Not Reach Knockout Stage: Tying into my comment above I feel France has some value here at +450 to not escape the group stage.

To Win World Cup: This group is the least likely to produce the champion in my opinion, thus no value here

Group F: Argentina, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria

To Win Group: Argentina is the biggest favorite on the money in the competition to win their group at -550. I feel they will win this group but feel stronger about Brazil taking Group A than I do about Argentina taking Group F thus I will pass.

To Reach Knockout Stage: Again I do not see any value here as B&H is -140 followed by Nigeria +140; neither has enough value on the money to warrant a wager, and Iran’s odds at +750 do not tie into how big a longshot I feel they are to advance.

To Not Reach Knockout Stage: Same comments as above, no value here.

To Win World Cup: Argentina is the 2nd favorite (to Brazil) checking in at 4/1 to win the championship – too short IMO. B&H is next up in this group at a whopping 210/1 & I see value there as this team could be a solid sleeper – and the hedging opportunities would start early at those odds so long as they advanced to the knockout stage. Consider if they finished 2nd in Group F they would face the winner of Group E which I do not feel is a strong group; that would be a great opportunity to reach the QF round where hedging could easily commence, if not sooner.

Group G: Germany, Portugal, USA, Ghana

To Win Group: This is the 2nd strongest group (only behind Group H) in the competition with Ghana dragging the group’s overall rating down. Germany is a modest -175 favorite to win this group, and considering they have reached at least the semifinal round in each of the last three groups they are certainly worthy of that distinction. Portugal is next up at +270, then it’s a big drop-off to USA at +900 & Ghana +1000. Call me crazy but I do see some value in USA as I just have a hunch Germany is not going to be peaking in the heat of South America (and you know Klinsmann will have the red, white & blue ready to face the Germans), they have suffered numerous recent injuries & their front line is aging. Portugal is certainly more than formidable, but the US could get the inside track with a win over Germany. I will roll the dice on USA at 9/1 odds to win Group G.

To Reach Knockout Stage: No solid odds here as USA is just +200 while Ghana, the clear cut 4th best team in this group in my opinion, sits at +300.

To Not Reach Knockout Stage: Similar to my comments in the opening portion of the Group G analysis I feel playing Germany to not advance at +550 odds is a decent value play as well. In addition, although I do not like laying big numbers often, playing Ghana here to not advance to the knockout stage at -400 is worthy of a wager as well.

To Win World Cup: I think two teams have value here and they are Portugal at 30/1 & USA at 200/1. Portugal only lost one game in qualification and one game over their last 11 including a pounding of Ireland in their last match prior to the World Cup. USA has been downplaying their chances the last few months, which is just when teams typically sneak up and surprise folks. Plus, again, the hedging opportunities on USA at those long odds could start early – and considering they would be in the bottom portion of the bracket if they came in second place (facing teams from Groups E-H) things could really open up for a deep run with Argentina the only team they would like to avoid.

Group H: Belgium, Russia, Algeria, South Korea

To Win Group: I am not quite sold on Belgium despite being a Manchester City fan with Vincent Kompany my favorite player. They did not qualify for each of the last two World Cups, and have failed to get past the Round of 16 since at least 1990. They are the only team laying odds to win the group checking in at -175; following them is Russia at +200, the only other team in this group I feel can win it. I am a big fan of an underappreciated Russia team & like a play on them to win this group even at the short odds.

To Reach Knockout Stage: Oddly South Korea is the only team from this group to reach the knockout stage since 2002. The two teams discussed above are big favorites to advance with the aforementioned South Korea squad up next at a short price of +180, with Algeria bringing up the rear at +450. No value here.

To Not Reach Knockout Stage: Considering recent injuries to the Belgian squad I see value here on them not reaching the knockout stage at +500. Although I consider this a three team group as far as who has a chance at legitimately advancing to the knockout stage, I think 5/1 odds is attractive enough to fade a banged up and inexperienced Belgium team.

To Win World Cup: The only team from this group whose odds I find attractive is Russia, who checks in at 75/1 odds to win the championship. Russia has not allowed more than 1 goal in a match since November of 2012 vs. USA, and has only lost once in their last ten games. As mentioned in Group G analysis I like the chances of teams in Groups E-H as they will be pitted against each other in the knockout stage, and whoever can avoid Argentina will have value & could make a deep run. Keep in mind the deeper the run, and the longer the odds the bigger the profit you can lock in from hedging.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's World Cup Tips

June 12, 2014

By Toby Maxtone-Smith


Spain vs. Netherlands (ESPN2, 3:00 p.m.)

With Brazil and Argentina so clearly leading the betting for the World Cup winner, it can be easy to forget about Spain, who have won their last three major tournaments. Spain are available at 13/2 with Sportsbook.ag, and the fourth favorite, although several bookmakers have them ahead of Germany in the betting.

Spain have not necessarily declined, although the influence of Xavi has certainly waned, but instead teams have gradually worked out how to combat their slow, patient passing style. This game against the Netherlands is a repeat of the 2010 final, which Spain won 1-0 after an extra time goal from Andres Iniesta. The Dutch approach then was to kick the Spanish out of the game and, while it got them lots of criticism after the game, it almost worked. The Netherlands had some wonderful chances to win the match before the decisive moment.

Just as in South Africa, Spain are the favorites and are 77/100, with Louis Van Gaal's Oranje at 3/1 and the draw a 5/2 shot.

Netherlands are everyone's favorites to be the big-name flop at this World Cup. A combination of a difficult group, a dreadful performance (three defeats from three) at Euro 2012 and a feel that their great players are getting slightly over the hill are the reasons for this. As often, the defense is the weakness, and while players like Bruno Martins-Indi and Ricardo van Rhijn are improving quickly, there is a lack of top level experience along the back line. The front three of Wesley Sneijder in behind Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie is the strength. However there is a chance they could get isolated against teams that dominate possession.

The common myth about Spain is that they simply thrash sides through their devastating passing play. In fact, their strength is in not conceding goals. Although their defenders are excellent, this is more because how much of the ball they have. They regularly top 70% possession, and this hugely limits what the opposition can do. 9 of their last 10 wins in major tournaments have been to nil, and this is why I like the 11/10 on Spain keeping a clean sheet.

Opening games in the group stages are generally cagey affairs with both teams prioritizing 'not losing' over winning. Bookmakers have certainly picked up on this, with over 2.5 goals at 29/20, with under 2.5 at 57/100.

I'm predicting 1-0 to Spain. They are not the most ruthless of teams and, even though the Dutch defense is suspect, don't expect Vicente Del Bosque's side to really fill their boots. Del Bosque is a surprisingly cautious manager, and will just want to get away from Salvador with a win.

Top Bet: Spain to keep a clean sheet at 11/10

Mexico vs. Cameroon (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

In Group A's other opening game Mexico face Cameroon in the searing midday heat of Natal, in the north-east of Brazil, not far from the equator. The temperature and the humidity will certainly have an effect on this game, and will lead to a slow-paced, patient game. As with ever opening group games between fairly even sides, a defeat spells disaster, as the vanquished would go into their fixture with Brazil needing at least a draw.

Mexico, incredibly, have been eliminated at the last 16 at each of the last five World Cups. Their World Cup qualification went dreadfully, and they needed a play-off win against New Zealand to reach Brazil. They will attempt to dominate possession, and in Oribe Peralta they have a ruthless finisher.

Cameroon have a strong defense and a dangerous, pacey attack. Their midfield, however, has a real lack of creativity with Alex Song, who often plays at center-back for Barcelona, the most likely to make chances. They will not be easy to play through, but much will depend on how efficiently they distribute the ball to their dangerous wingers, Aboubakar and Choupo-Moting.

Mexico are the 11/10 favorites, with Cameroon quoted at 9/4, but I'm very keen on the 11/5 draw. A draw would not be a total disaster for either side, and the conditions could make for a slow game with few chances.

Top Bet: Draw at 11/5

Chile vs. Australia (ESPN, 6:00 p.m.)

Poor old Australia. They've been given an absolute stinker of a group, with 2010 finalists Spain and Holland, and Chile - one of the most exciting, attacking teams at the tournament. The Socceroos are not a bad side, but with lots of high profile retirements since 2010, there is a sense that, while the new generation have potential, they are just not quite ready yet.

Chile have their weaknesses - they don't perhaps score as many as they should, and the defense is suspect - but they have some fantastic strengths as well. Manager Jorge Sampaoli plays a fascinating formation. There are three center-backs, with two attacking wing-backs in Mauricio Isla and Jean Beausejour. Eduardo Vargas and the fantastic Alexis Sanchez play as wide-forwards, with Arturo Vidal powering forward from midfield through the middle. The emphasis from Sampaoli is enormous width - their game is all about firing quick balls out to the flanks and stretching teams all over the pitch.

Chile are the big 2/5 favorites with Australia out at 5/1 and a draw at 7/2. The bet I like here is over 2.5 goals at 21/20 - Australia's defense has a huge job dealing with Chile's vast array of attacking options, and I think they'll struggle.

Top Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20

 

[CNOTES]

Kings eager to raise Cup in Game 5

June 12, 2014


LOS ANGELES (AP) - The Los Angeles Kings already know there's no place like home ice for a coronation.

They've got the chance to lift the Stanley Cup at Staples Center again when they host the New York Rangers in Game 5 of the finals on Friday night, giving the ultimate celebration to their long-suffering fans for the second time in three years.

Yet the Kings' memories of that night in June 2012 weren't a popular subject Thursday as they prepared for the chance to finish another draining, two-month postseason with one big party.

''It doesn't matter where you win the fourth,'' Jarret Stoll said at the Kings' training complex. ''This time of year, it's all about the result.''

With the weary poise of a team that has already been through three seven-game series this spring, the Kings insisted they're not bothered by their inability to finish a sweep in New York. Mike Richards and the Kings calmly flew home, grabbed a few hours of sleep and focused on a good start to Game 5, figuring it will lead to the big finish.

''It's not going to be easy, but confidence is there,'' Richards said. ''If we play well, we think that we can have success. You don't make it to this point of the season without having confidence in your team.''

Stoll is tired of the Kings' weak starts, however. The Rangers have taken 2-0 leads in three of the series' four games, forcing Los Angeles to play catch-up hockey - something the Kings do extraordinarily well, but would prefer to skip Friday.

''We know we can do more, especially at the start of games,'' Stoll said.

Henrik Lundqvist gave the Rangers hope with his 40-save performance in Game 4, earning another cross-country trip for the Eastern Conference champions. The goalie's unflappable poise - and one or two puck-slowing mounds of snow - helped keep the Rangers in the series with a 2-1 win in Game 4.

And now that they're off the canvas, the Rangers realize they have ample reason to be comfortable at Staples Center, where they never trailed in their two series-opening overtime losses. The Rangers still mixed it up in their return to the visitors' dressing room for practice Thursday: except for their two goalies, every player took a new locker.

''I know if we win (Game 5), they're definitely going to feel the pressure,'' Lundqvist said. ''We were in that spot playing Montreal. The closer you are to your final goal, obviously you tend to think more. That's just the way you work. It's hard not to.''

Lundqvist is the Rangers' best hope, and the Swedish star is at his best with the season on the line. He is 11-2 in the Rangers' last 13 elimination games with a 1.30 goals-against average and a .959 save percentage.

''It comes down to how much you want to battle, how much you want it,'' Lundqvist said. ''Not only for me, but for the group. ... Sometimes when everything is on the line, that's actually easier sometimes to focus in on the important thing and not so much on consequences.''

Lundqvist's dominance in the Kings' 10th loss of this postseason was frustrating but not discouraging to a team that has repeatedly surmounted all difficulties over the past three years.

Two seasons ago, the Kings had lost just two games in the entire playoffs when they had their first chance to clinch their franchise's first championship. The Devils beat Los Angeles 3-1 at Staples Center in Game 4 and then won again in New Jersey in Game 5, making the eighth-seeded Kings uncomfortable for the first time in their charmed run.

The Kings returned home and won Game 6 in a rout. Most of the Kings' current roster was on that team, and the players remember the innumerable distractions: ticket requests, media pressures and a wellspring of natural excitement.

''I think everyone is more equipped now, or more ready for it, more aware of what the distractions are and how they can present themselves, and what you need to do to push them away,'' Richards said.

Game 5 is Los Angeles' NHL-record 64th playoff game in the last three seasons, and the Kings will tie the single-season record with their 26th postseason game of this season. The game will be the 93rd of the entire postseason, making it the longest playoff in league history.

But if the Kings are exhausted at the brink of their 10th series victory in the most grueling three-year stretch in hockey history, they haven't shown it. The Kings dominated the Rangers for much of Game 4, outshooting them 15-1 in the third period, but failing to get anything past Lundqvist.

The Kings uniformly scoff at the notion of fatigue playing any role with hockey's ultimate prize just a game away.

''This is why you play the game,'' Stoll said. ''It doesn't matter how many games you play. You've got energy. You've got jump. You should, (if) you realize what you're playing for. Yeah, it's a lot of games, but it's why we play.''

 

[CNOTES]

Spain hits the field

June 13, 2014


Group B: Spain vs. Netherlands

Sportsbook.ag Line
Spain -135, Netherlands +350, Tie +250
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals under -175/over +145

Group B play of the 2014 World Cup begins on Friday afternoon when Spain begins its defense of its 2010 World Cup title against the Netherlands, the team that fell one goal short of a World Cup four years ago.

Tipping world and double-European champions Spain to fail in Brazil has been all the rage since last year’s 0-3 Confederations Cup final loss to the hosts. However, their place as fourth favorites to win the World Cup again suggests that the bookies aren’t fully convinced that their era is over.

Vicente del Bosque's options have increased since La Roja's Euro 2012 victory, with defender Cesar Azpilicueta, midfielder Koke and Brazil-born striker Diego Costa barging their way into the coach's first-team thoughts. That emerging trio complements an uber-experienced core roster of winners who will not relinquish their hard-fought crown without a fight, and the mustachioed manager will be eager to avoid a repeat of Spain's 1-0 win over the Netherlands in the championship game in South Africa four years ago.

The Netherlands will draw inspiration from Switzerland's 1-0 defeat of Del Bosque's side in their opening fixture at World Cup 2010, but that was against a far less-medaled Spanish outfit with a heavy weight of expectation that they would fall short again on their shoulders.

Louis van Gaal's Oranje breezed through a particularly poor European qualifying Group D and have looked disconcertingly ordinary in several friendlies since, losing 2-0 to France and drawing against Colombia and Japan. They made the 2010 final in Johannesburg, losing 1-0 to Spain after extra-time, but their dreadful, pointless campaign at Euro 2012 indicated that the aging generation of Dutchmen are in decline.

Group A: Mexico vs. Cameroon

Sportsbook.ag Line
Mexico even money, Cameroon +260, Tie +240
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals Under -208/over +165

The 2014 World Cup continues on Friday afternoon when Mexico and Cameroon complete the opening round of Group A play.

After only just emerging from a shambolic Hexagonal qualifying campaign in which they won just 2-of-10 matches, this strife-torn Mexico outfit cannot be backed with any confidence to prosper in Brazil.

The Mexican Football Federation scrambled for the panic button during the Hex, releasing three different coaches from their duties between last September and October alone before placing 46-year-old Miguel Herrera in charge for the second chance play-off double header against New Zealand. Herrera's brave decision to ignore all non-Mexico-based players in favor of a roster comprised largely of his former Club America charges paid off with a 9-3 aggregate win over the All Whites. However, the coach has since abandoned that approach by recalling Manchester United's Javier Hernandez, scorer of five goals in his last 27 club appearances, and Giovani dos Santos of Spanish team Villarreal back into his striking ranks.

The return of seven European-based players risks creating factions within the camp, and a Cameroon side that won five and lost one of their eight qualifiers will know that only an opening-fixture win will do if they are to get past the group stage for the first time since 1990. The Indomitable Lions' 0-1 reverse against Japan in 2010 was the first time that they kicked off a World Cup campaign by losing in six participations.

Group B: Chile vs. Australia

Sportsbook.ag Line
Chile -277, Australia +750, Tie +367
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals Under -135/Over +105

Group B play of the 2014 World Cup continues on Friday afternoon when heavy underdog Australia tries to upset Chile.

It seems strange that Europe are the shortest-priced continent to produce the World Cup winners considering no country from outside South America lifted the trophy on the four prior occasions that the competition was held there. The host continent will be represented by Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, Chile and Ecuador this time round, and the first five of that sextet all look capable of strong showings in familiar surroundings.

Chile would have hoped for friendlier Group B bedfellows than World Cup 2010 finalists Spain and the Netherlands, but an opening fixture against significantly weaker Australia should ensure that Jorge Sampaoli's side is brimming with confidence for its clash with champions Spain. Alexis Sanchez and company lost just two of their 14 games in 2013, earning excellent victories over Uruguay, Paraguay and England and claiming credible draws against Brazil, Spain and Colombia.

Finishing second – four points behind Japan – in an Asian qualifying group that also contained Jordan, Oman and Iraq will prove poor preparation for what Australia, who lost four of six fixtures between July 25, 2013 and May 25, 2014, are about to face. Crack Chile goal-getters Sanchez and Arturo Vidal have scored over 40 goals between them for club and country since last August, and Sampaoli's men conceded just three times across recent friendlies against fellow World Cup attendees England, Brazil, Costa Rica and Germany.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's World Cup Tips

June 13, 2014


England vs. Italy (ESPN, 6:00 p.m. ET)

England face Italy in what is surely the game of the day in Group D of the World Cup on Saturday. These two sides have five World Cups between them and have two of the world’s most famous and history national leagues. However neither national team is among the front-runners to win the World Cup, with England at 28/1 and Italy quoted at 20/1, both with Sportsbook.ag.

This group, with Uruguay and Costa Rica the other two teams represented, looks very likely to be a ‘two from three’ scenario, with few expecting Costa Rica to challenge the ‘big three’. This game will be played in the steamy heat of Manaus, albeit at nighttime when the heat will be less oppressive. The pitch does not look the best, and this could have an effect, particularly on Italy who are more comfortable on the ball than England.

Both teams have had dodgy pre-tournament qualifiers, with Italy’s 1-1 draw with Luxembourg particularly embarrassing, but it is dubious how important these matches are, and I would not advise paying too much attention to them. The World Cup is about who can perform on the big stage, and warm-up matches where players’ main concern is avoiding injury are certainly not that big stage.

Bookmakers have this down as a real low-scorer. However in the four games so far, we have seen an incredible 15 goals - the traditional slow start to the tournament has not happened at all with every team going for it. What a breath of fresh air. Italy are the slight favourites at 147/100, with England at 9/5 and the draw as short as 197/100.

It’s very short indeed, but I fancy the draw here. The two sides played out a 0-0 in the quarter-finals of Euro 2012 (Italy went through on penalties), and there seems to be a lack of real magic in the final third from either team, particularly if Mario Balotelli has one of his off-days. In the end, this group may come down to who beats Costa Rica by the most goals, and a draw would be a decent result for both sides. Under 1.5 goals is as short as 13/10, illustrating how cagey the match is expected to be.

In the goalscorer markets, Mario Balotelli is at 6/1, but the leader in the market is Andrea Pirlo. Although he does take set-pieces and penalties, he is unlikely to threaten much from open play and this price seems based more on reputation that facts.

For England, Daniel Sturridge leads the line and is a 7/1 shot, but his finishing was poor in the warm-up games, despite a clinical season at Liverpool. Wayne Rooney is a continual underperformer at major tournaments and should be avoided at 9/1.

Top Bet: Draw at 197/100

Uruguay vs. Costa Rica (ABC, 3:00 p.m. ET)

The other game in this group sees Uruguay, the winners the last time Brazil hosted the World Cup, in 1950, face group outsiders Costa Rica. Uruguay will see this game as a great chance to take the initiative in this group with both or one of their main rivals set to slip up. Three years ago, they were undoubtedly South America’s best team after they won the 2011 Copa America, but since then it has gone downhill for them and they needed a play-off victory against Jordan to secure a place in Brazil.

They are as short as 19/50 to win this game. Costa Rica are not the worst side at the tournament, but they stand very little chance of winning any of their games, and their main aim will be to frustrate. A draw is at 7/2 with a Costa Rica win an 11/2 chance.

The two bets I like here are a 2-0 Uruguay win - they rarely thrash teams but have great tournament know-how and will put in a professional performance. This is 9/2. The other one is for Joel Campbell, Costa Rica’s lightning-quick forward, to score. The Arsenal loanee is Costa Rica’s star player and has the quality to get in behind a slow Uruguay defence. If anyone will score for Costa Rica, it will be him. At 4/1 it’s worth a punt.

Top Bets: Uruguay to win 2-0 at 9/2, Joel Campbell to score anytime at 4/1

Greece vs. Colombia (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)

The first game of the day sees Colombia take on Greece at the Estadio Mineirão in Belo Horizonte. Colombia are the South American equivalent of Belgium - a team that hasn’t qualified for the World Cup for a long time, but has suddenly found themselves blessed with a golden generation of players, particularly in attacking positions. Greece, meanwhile, will be what they always are: stubborn, defensive, and able to cause a shock.

Colombia are the big 71/100 favourites, but I think the 13/5 draw makes great appeal. Greece only conceded four goals in ten matches of qualifying, and Colombia’s ability to stick the ball in the back of the net will be greatly diminished with Falcao’s injury, even though it means Colombia will play five in midfield which suits their players better.

Greece are devoid of any real creativity, but in Kostas Manolas and (breathe in) Sokratis Papastathopoulos they have two fine centre-backs. They will rely on Colombia committing too many men forward and breaking into space. Over 2.5 goals is 8/5, with the under option quoted at 1/2.

Top Bet: Draw at 13/5

Japan vs. Ivory Coast (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

The last game of the day sees Ivory Coast and Japan meet in Recife at the Arena Pernambuco. Both teams have been among the best in their continent for several years now. Japan have one of the most underrated midfields in the World Cup, with Shinji Kagawa, Yasuhito Endo and Keisuke Honda all capable of dominating the midfield. In Shinji Okazaki the Japanese have finally found a regular goalscorer.

This is the last chance for the Ivory Coast team of Didier Drogba and Yaya Touré to really make a splash at the World Cup after group stage exits in 2006 and 2010. However their team is a collection of individuals with little cohesion between the players, while the defence is old and creaking. While Yaya Touré had a great season at club level, for the national team he is often played out of position

The bookies have got the prices a bit wrong here, for me. I’m all over Japan at 7/4 - they have a great team ethic to go with their individual quality, and I think they could be one of the real surprise packages in Brazil. Ivory Coast are far too short to touch at 29/20 with the draw at 53/25.

Top Bet: Japan at 7/4

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's WCup Action

June 14, 2014


Group E: Switzerland vs. Ecuador (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag Line
Switzerland +135, Ecuador +190, Tie +205
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +170, Under -222)

Group E play of the 2014 World Cup opens on Sunday afternoon with what should be a tight matchup between Switzerland and Ecuador.

Ecuador made it to their third World Cup in four renewals by finishing above well-fancied Uruguay in CONMEBOL qualifying, and can land decent outsider odds by beating Switzerland in Group E's opening fixture. The South Americans improved on their early exit in 2002 when emerging from a group containing hosts Germany, Poland and Costa Rica four years later. They've won three and lost four of seven World Cup matches since debuting in 2002, prevailing in their first in Germany against Poland, so backing a draw in Brazil seems a fool's errand.

Reinaldo Rueda's men pit their wits against a Switzerland outfit managed by wily former Bayern Munich coach Ottmar Hitzfeld, but the Europeans could arrive in Brazil somewhat undercooked after an undeniably straightforward preliminary campaign.Seven wins and three draws from 10 qualifiers launched the Swiss into the FIFA world rankings top-10, but the fact that Iceland – who have never qualified for the World Cup – finished a distant second in their group tempers that form line. Erratic recent performances offer little indication as to how they might fare in the land of samba, with a 1-0 autumn win against Brazil and a 2-2 March draw with Croatia sandwiching a 2-1 loss to South Korea among other results.

Switzerland exited early in 2010 despite beating eventual winners Spain in their opener, but Ecuador – who have held Argentina twice since last June – have enough quality to ensure that only the former of those eventualities can occur in their home continent.

Group E: France vs. Honduras (ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag Line
France -400, Honduras +750, Tie +450
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +120, Under -149)

Group E play of the 2014 World Cup continues on Sunday with France heavily favored to breeze past Honduras.

France travels to a fifth successive World Cup with their usual roster full of talent, but Didier Deschamps' side's chaotic qualifying campaign – allied with their erratic tournament form – makes them a tough team to trust in Brazil. Deschamps' best 11 will feature seasoned performers Hugo Lloris, Patrice Evra and Franck Ribery, while much is expected of World Cup debutants Karim Benzema, Paul Pogba and Raphael Varane.

However, being a gifted bunch hasn't stopped France imploding at recent World Cups. The last time Les Bleus won their opening fixture was against South Africa 16 years ago, when they went on to become champions for the first and only time. A farcical trophy defense in Japan and South Korea four years later began with Fabien Barthez, Marcel Desailly, Patrick Vieira, Thierry Henry and company going down 1-0 against Senegal, who were playing in their first World Cup. A brace of opening-day 0-0 ties against Switzerland and Uruguay then followed in the last two editions.

However, though betting on another low-scoring bore draw is a tempting prospect, the 12 fixtures featuring either France or Honduras between September 10 and mid-May produced a whopping combined total of 43 goals.

With that in mind, a split-stake strategy on 2-2 and 3-3 draws should be implemented for this match, but Deschamps' men are worth tracking as their campaign unfolds. France followed up World Cup final appearances in 1998 and 2006 with group-stage exits in 2002 and 2010, a pattern that suggests they'll go well again in Brazil.

Group F: Argentina vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina (ESPN, 6:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag Line
Argentina -277, Bosnia-Herzegovina +550, Tie +350
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -125, Under -105)

Group F play of the 2014 World Cup begins on Sunday afternoon with Argentina heavily favored to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Despite the exile of Juventus' Carlos Tevez from their roster, Argentina have the firepower to justify their status as second favorites at neighbors Brazil's World Cup party, and Alejandro Sabella's men should possess too much class for Group F second favorites Bosnia-Herzegovina. A frightening Albiceleste forward contingent containing Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain and four-time world player of the year Lionel Messi will be unleashed upon the tournament debutants, with goals expected to rain down on Safet Susic's side.

The Europeans only lost one qualifier and in goalkeeper Asmir Begovic, midfielder Miralem Pjanic and striker Edin Dzeko, they possess individuals worthy of their places among the planet's finest. Subsequent clashes with Iran and Nigeria should see them accrue two wins that deliver them to the last 16 at the first attempt, but a 2-0 loss to Argentina before the World Cup draw was made gives an accurate reflection of their chances against Sabella's side in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday.

The aforementioned Argentine forward trio’s combined club strike tally came in at just under 100 during the 2013-14 season and the last winners on South American soil will frighten every defense that they encounter in Brazil, but their own backline proved far from impregnable in qualifying. Argentina conceded seven goals in their final four fixtures when topping the CONMEBOL preliminary section. With that in mind, backing Messi and company to win a match in which both teams score, looks the way to squeeze as much value as possible from this fixture.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday's World Cup Tips

June 15, 2014


Germany vs. Portugal (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

Germany face Portugal in what is definitely Monday’s Game of the Day at the Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador. The game pits two of Europe’s most likely winners against each other, and the result will probably determine the winner of Group F, unless either Ghana or USA causes a shock.

After arriving on the world stage in 2010, this German generation has reached two semi-finals before going out. It is a generation rich in attacking talent - very different from what they used to be like: defensive, physical, five in defence. Many people earmarked this tournament as one where Germany might be the team to beat, but the hype has cooled over the last six months. The squad does not look as good as the one Joachim Löw took to Euro 2012, but a succession of injuries has robbed Germany of some of their best players. Marco Reus will be a particularly big loss.

They only go into the competition with one recognised striker, and although Miroslav Klose’s World Cup record is stellar, he is now 36. Travel times, as well have locations and times of games, have conspired against Germany.

Portugal’s main strength is the interesting link-up play between midfielders…. ah who am I kidding? It’s Cristiano Ronaldo. While they are not quite a ‘one-man team’, their whole strategy is set up to get the best out of the current World’s Best Player. The rest of the team is competent, with João Moutinho and Fabio Coentrão particularly good. With Cristiano in the side, Portugal will have a chance in any match they play.

Germany are the 19/20 favourites with Sportsbook.ag, but I can’t have any of that. Not one area of the team is hugely convincing, and I’m swaying towards backing Portugal at 5/2. The draw is a 13/5 shot. Interestingly there have been no draws in the ten games so far in Brazil.

Let’s have a look at the goalscorer markets where, despite representing the underdog, Cristiano Ronaldo leads the betting at 4/1. He scored 51 goals in 47 matches this year and is now probably just ahead of arch-rival Lionel Messi. The German goalscorer I like is 6/1 Thomas Müller, the joint winner of the 2010 Golden Boot. He is a strange, ungainly type of player, but he has the intelligence to be in the right place at the right time, and is a fantastically hard worker.

This World Cup has been much more open than people expected, and I predict this game will be similar. Both teams to score is a 20/27 shot, but I prefer over 2.5 goals at 4/5. It has been very refreshing seeing proactive attitudes from most teams in Brazil, and I see no reason why Germany and Portugal will be any different.

Top Bet: Portugal to win at 5/2

United States vs. Ghana (ESPN, 6:00 p.m.)

We are still waiting for our first draw of the 2014 World Cup. And while the tournament has been much more open than expected, I am all over the 5/2 on Ghana and USA to draw. With Portugal and Germany the other teams in the group, this is a game neither team can afford to lose. It would all but end their tournament. Bookmakers are finding it almost impossible to split the two teams, with USA the very slight favourite at 8/5 against the 17/10 Ghanaians.

I would have Ghana as slight favourites. Although the USA’s long travel schedule will not yet have taken its toll, the conditions in Natal will be more favourable towards Ghana. Kwesi Appiah’s Black Stars are a real team, and they have a strength in depth virtually unrivalled on their continent. They were the most impressive team in African qualifying, scoring 26 in 8 games and conceding just 5.

This is a more youthful USA side than in previous World Cups, but I have a concern as to where the goals are going to come from, particularly after Jozy Altidore suffered a confidence-sapping season in the English Premier League at Sunderland.

Top Bet: Draw at 5/2

Nigeria vs. Iran (ESPN, 3:00 p.m.)

Iran face Nigeria in the middle game on Monday. The game comes from Group F, where Argentina and Bosnia are the other sides. Iran are simultaneously the most unknown and the least highly rated team at this World Cup. They are coached by the vastly experienced Carlos Queiroz, who is an expert in the art of building a solid defence. They scored only eight goals in eight games when they won their qualifying group, but conceded just twice. Their pre-tournament friendlies ended 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 and a 2-0 win.

It is easy to see them frustrating Nigeria who look short of creative talent. Their most creative midfielder is Jon Obi Mikel, who plays a very defensive role for Chelsea, and they may struggle to break down an unambitious Iranian side. My favourite bet here is under 2.5 goals at 69/100.

Nigeria go into the match as the 19/20 favourites - they have a strong and quick front three, but the question is how often they can get the ball to them. A draw is available at 5/2, with an Iran victory a 3/1 shot.

Top Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 69/100

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday's WCup Tips

June 17, 2014


Chile vs. Spain (ESPN, 6:00 p.m. ET)

Spain vs Chile is surely the biggest game of Wednesday’s trio of soccer matches. After an astonishing 5-1 humbling at the hands of the Netherlands on Friday night, Spain are in the last chance saloon if they are to prove to the world that their style of patient passing football, ‘tiki-taka’, is still competitive at the highest level. Chile, meanwhile, got past Australia 3-1. They started the game in rip-roaring fashion, going two nil up inside the first quarter of an hour, but struggled to deal with Australia’s crossing thereafter. They only sealed the game thanks to a last minute strike from Jean Beausejour.

Spain are the 61/100 favourites with Sportsbook.ag, but after their traumatic result of just a few days ago this seems far too short, and I find the 4/1 about a Chile win much more appetising. The Chileans have the same devastating pace on the counter-attack that the Netherlands do. Their defence is suspect, but the primary weakness there is height, however Spain don’t put in many crosses at all, so this disadvantage may not be preyed upon by Spain. Spain are not a team that takes any notice of the opposition; they play their way, whoever the opponent may be.

A draw is available at 13/4 - this would be a great result for Chile, and would all but see them through. These are two very bold teams, and the game could be high-scoring. Chile aren’t a ‘grinding out a draw’ kind of side, but the price isn’t bad.

The most interesting tactical question of the match is whether Spain persist with Diego Costa as a centre-forward. He has just had a blistering season at Atletico Madrid, but Spain simply do not play to his strengths. Do they try and adapt their game to him, or do they play Cesc Fabregas as a ‘false number 9’? Spain’s attack was very blunt against a relatively inexperienced Dutch defence. Someone like Pedro, a real winger with more penetration and directness than many in the team, would be a good addition from Del Bosque.

In the First Goalscorer market, Diego Costa leads the way at 9/2, but this price looks much too short with Costa’s lack of fitness and how he doesn’t fit into the Spanish system. A better bet for a Spain goalscorer would be 10/1 Xabi Alonso, who takes penalties. Chile’s defence is not the most careful, and it is easy to imagine them diving into rash challenges in the box.

The nicest bet here, however, is Alexis Sanchez of Chile to break the deadlock at 8/1. While he often becomes a secondary star at Barcelona, he is well and truly the main man for Chile. He broke the deadlock against Australia, and with 23 goals from 66 internationals, he looks well placed to plant a dagger into Spanish hearts with the first goal.

Top Bet: Alexis Sanchez to score first at 8/1

Netherlands vs. Australia (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The first game of the day sees Australia meet Netherlands in Porto Alegre. Australia are comfortably the weakest-looking team in the group. They are an inexperienced bunch but, apart from a nightmare first 15 minutes, gave much-fancied Chile a bit of a scare in their first game, despite going down to a 3-1 defeat. The Netherlands stunned Spain 5-1 and are now in pole-position to win the group. They are the 9/50 favourites, with Australia all the way out at 25/2 and the draw a 13/2 chance.

None of these make a huge amount of appeal, and there is more interest in the goalscorer markets. Apart from defenders from set-pieces, Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie and Wesley Sneijder are the only real Dutch goal threats. Of these, Robben at 4/1 looks the most attractive after his brace on Friday. Tim Cahill plays up front for Australia and is renowned as one of the best jumpers in world football. Cross it to him and there’s always a chance he’ll leap up onto the end of it. He’s a 10/1 shot.

Top Bet: Arjen Robben to score first at 4/1

Croatia vs. Cameroon (ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET)

The last game of the day is from Group A and sees Cameroon meet Croatia in the Arena Amazônia in Manaus. Both teams lost their first game, but in very different ways. Croatia were hugely unfortunate to lose 3-1 to hosts Brazil in the tournament opener, having taken the lead; Cameroon, meanwhile, were extremely poor in a 1-0 (with two perfectly decent goals disallowed for offside) defeat to Mexico that left them with a huge uphill task to qualify.

Croatia are the 49/100 favourites. Cameroon are 5/1 and a draw is available at 7/2. Croatia are clearly better, but I’m happy to leave their price and instead look at prices opposing Cameroon goals. Alex Song, who often plays at centre-back for Barcelona, is the Indomitable Lions’ most creative midfielder, which says a lot. The team frequently looks lost in the final third.

Many people saw Croatia’s defence as a potential weakness, but they managed to keep out Brazil for much of their game in Sao Paulo, and 20/21 on Niko Kovac’s side keeping a clean sheet seems like a good bet.

Top Bet: Croatia to keep a clean sheet at 20/21

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's WCup Tips

June 18, 2014


Uruguay vs. England (ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET)

Uruguay face England in Thursday’s most important World Cup match at the Arena São Paulo. Both teams lost their opening group matches, but in very different circumstances. While England came out of an unlucky 2-1 defeat to Italy with some credit, there was some serious soul-searching to be done in the Uruguayan camp as the two-time champions went down 3-1 to Costa Rica.

Italy look very likely to qualify, and unless Costa Rica prove that their victory over Uruguay was no flash in the pan, this game could go a long way to deciding who follows Italy to the knockout stages. A defeat would be almost fatal. A draw would be a better result for Roy Hodgsons’s England side - they would back themselves to get a better result against Costa Rica than Uruguay do against Italy (assuming Italy beat Costa Rica on Friday).

The big team news is that Luis Suarez returns for Uruguay. He terrorised the English Premier League last year and will be the key if the South Americans are to unlock the English defence. For England, the main question comes over the role of Wayne Rooney. Will he play through the middle, or on the left. Will he play at all?

England’s good performance against Uruguay has seen them backed into 91/100 favourites with Sportsbook.ag, but this seems too short against a side that, whatever its faults, has good tournament experience. Uruguay are 14/5 with a draw chalked up at 27/10.

Traditionally, both these teams have had their strength in defence, but I’d question whether that is the case this year. England creative lots of chances against Italy, and they have a less formidable defence than at most past tournaments, with full-backs Glen Johnson and Leighton Baines particularly suspect defensively.

Likewise Uruguay aren’t great at the back. Diego Godin had a fine season with Atletico Madrid, but his partner is 33 year-old Diego Lugano. Never the quickest, Lugano’s lack of pace has now become a severe problem. It forces Uruguay to sit very deep and play too uncreative destroyers in central-midfield, both of whom have disciplinary problems. Daniel Sturridge, who leads the England attack, is very quick and can certainly exploit this lack of pace. I’m very keen on over 2.5 goals at 19/20.

The joint leaders of the First Goalscorer market are Liverpool duo Sturridge and Suarez, both at 4/1. With superior service and without a strike partner to take half his chances, Sturridge looks a better shout at the prices. Raheem Sterling, who almost broke the deadlock for England against Italy and was their outstanding player, is now as short as 7/1 to score first. Rickie Lambert will be England’s Plan B - it is easy to foresee him scoring late on.

Top Bet: Over 2.5 goals - 27/10

Colombia vs. Ivory Coast (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

In the first game of the day, Colombia meet Ivory Coast. Having been backed from 150/1 three years ago into around 25/1 now, Colombia are tipped by many to do well in Brazil. They were very convincing in a 3-0 win against a limited Greece side, and they are 11/10 favourites to all but seal qualification with a win in Brasília. Ivory Coast came from behind to beat Japan 2-1 in their first game, putting them in a great position to qualify.

Ivory Coast are available at 23/10 here, and a draw is 5/2, but I’d be inclined to get on Colombia. They have the attacking weapons to open up the ageing Ivorian defence. Juan Cuadrado was excellent on the wing against Greece, while James Rodriguez in behind Teofilo Gutierrez both have lots of goals in them.

In Kolo Touré and Sol Bamba, Ivory Coast have a defence that is vulnerable to pace, and Colombia certainly have that.

Top Bet: Colombia to win at 11/10

Greece vs. Japan (ESPN, 6:00 p.m. ET)

In a real ‘do or die’ game in Natal, both Japan and Greece know that a defeat is likely to end their participation at the World Cup, while a draw would not be of much more help. This is a must-win. Japan played some good stuff in their 2-1 defeat to Ivory Coast, but as so often, they were let down in both penalty areas. Their finishing wasn’t good enough, and their defending was naive. Everywhere else, they were excellent.

Greece were totally outplayed in a 3-0 defeat to Colombia in a match they did not for one moment look like getting anything out of. There is a chronic lack of creative players in their team, although their defence is not the worst.

Japan should win this one. They are the 11/10 favourites and rightfully so. Greece are at 11/4 with a draw at 5/2. While Greece’s centre-backs are good, their two full-backs (particularly left-back Jose Holebas) often get caught far too high up the field. Japan have the pace and the quick passing to exploit that. Shinji Okazaki, who can play both wide right and up front, looks a good pick for first goalscorer at 6/1. He has scored 38 in 76 goals, and has recently become the regular goalscorer Japan have craved.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday's WCup Tips

June 22, 2014


Croatia vs. Mexico (ESPN2, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Croatia play Mexico in what is effectively a play-off for who qualifies for the last 16 of the World Cup. The game takes place at the Arena Pernambuco in Recife and Croatia need to win to qualify. A draw or a defeat, and Mexico will progress.

Both sides have been impressive at the World Cup so far: Croatia were hugely unlucky to lose 3-1 to Brazil in the tournament’s opening game. They matched the Brazilians until a highly dubious penalty went against Niko Kovac’s side in the 71st minute. They then dismantled an appalling Cameroon side 4-0 in a ruthless display of attacking football. Mario Mandzukic, the wantaway Bayern Munich striker, scored twice.

Mexico faced Cameroon first up and, after having two perfectly good goals ruled out for offside, eventually broke through to win 1-0 thanks to Oribe Peralta’s strike. El Tri then put in a superb display to frustrate Brazil to a 0-0 draw, with goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa sensational.Their two results have been particularly notable because their defence was seen as a weakness before the tournament.

Neither team has any issues with injury or suspension, although there is a chance Mexico boss Miguel Herrera could introduce Manchester United forward into the team. However, this looks unlikely given that a draw would send his team through.

Croatia is the very slight favourites at odds of 3/1 with sportsbook.ag, and given the confidence with which they played when needing a win against Cameroon, this price looks quite attractive. Worries about a vulnerable defence have been eased a bit with impressive performances from Dejan Lovren and Sime Vrsaljko, while the midfield is packed with invention and creativity. Wingers Ivica Olic (naturally a striker) and Ivan Perisic (normally plays out wide, but has the physique of a centre-forward) both have plenty of goals in them.

Mexico is available at 8/5, but given that a draw would see them through, fanciers of the Mexicans will be more tempted by quotes of 5/2 about a stalemate. However the pace of Croatia’s attack could give them a hard time, and their centre-backs, while strong and brave, are not quick.

Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 looks much too long. Both sides’ strength is arguably their attack, and given the way teams have approached crucial matches at the World Cup so far, it is surprising to see anything longer than evens on a high-scoring game.

In the first goalscorer market, Mario Mandzukic leads the betting at 9/2, but my favourite bet here is the 6/1 Ivica Olic, who just seems to keep on going. His fantastic work rate means he gets a lot of chances, and he gave Benoît Assou-Ekotto of Cameroon a torrid time the last time Croatia played. For Mexico, Oribe Peralta is 6/1 with Giovani Dos Santos 8/1.

Top bets: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10, Ivica Olic to score first at 6/1

Brazil vs. Cameroon (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The other match in Group A sees probably the biggest mismatch of the tournament. Brazil, needing a point to qualify and a win to all but guarantee winning the group, play a Cameroon side that has been the worst team at the World Cup so far.

Having offered nothing in a 1-0 defeat by Mexico, Cameroon, nicknamed the ‘Indomitable Lions’ disintegrated completely in an indisciplined 4-0 loss to Croatia. Alex Song was sent off, and Assou-Ekotto and Benjamin Moukandjo started fighting each other on the pitch. Even at 21/1, Cameroon make no appeal.

Brazil is as short as 9/100, with a draw at 19/1, but there is no appeal in this market. Brazil is 2/1 just to keep a clean sheet. There may be more value in the first goalscorer market. Neymar is the market leader at 5/2, but for someone who isn't a centre-forward this should be avoided.

Fred has lived up to his reputation as Brazil’s weakness with two poor performances. The best bet here is to get on Oscar to score first at 9/2. He was Brazil’s brightest spark against Croatia and plays with more freedom for Brazil than for Chelsea.

Top bet: Oscar to score first at 9/2

Netherlands vs. Chile (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The Netherlands face Chile in one Group B at the Arena Corinthians in São Paulo. Both teams have already qualified, notably at the expense of Spain, so this match is a decider for who wins the group. Chile need to win, or they face the likely task of a game against the hosts Brazil in the last 16, so there is plenty to play for.

Before the tournament started, Netherlands was the favorites for this game, but Chile have been backed into very slight favouritism at 31/20. There is good reason for this - Sampaoli’s men were more convincing in their defeat of Australia than the Dutch were, and they probably afforded Spain fewer chances than Holland. A Dutch victory is at 8/5 with a draw a 5/2 shot.

Bookmakers are expecting a high-scoring game, and with less at stake than usual in World Cup matches, they should not be disappointed and over 3.5 goals is as short as 17/10. This is a decent price given that these are two teams with much better attacks than defences. Chile is highly vulnerable to crosses, and the Netherlands should send many more of these over than Spain did. Chile has more attacking options than almost anyone in the tournament, and their attacking movement is a joy to behold.

Top bet: Over 3.5 goals at 17/10

Australia vs. Spain (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Well, who would have thought it? The game between Australia and Spain, instead of being a match between the group winners and the whipping-boys, is in fact a battle to avoid the wooden spoon. Spain, whatever the outcome here, will leave Brazil embarrassed. They have utterly failed to realise that their tiki-taka style of football has been worked out, and they have been well and truly blasted off their perch.

Australia has lost twice, but scorelines of 3-1 and 3-2 demonstrate that Australia have made an excellent account of themselves. Their side is young, and they have given defences some real problems. having been around 18/1 to win this match before the tournament started, the two sides’ contrasting fortunes has seen Australia shortening into 11/2. Spain are 2/5 with a draw 17/4.

Spain’s defense has been so porous, with seven conceded from two games, that Both Teams To Score simply cannot be ignored at 10/13. They struggle to deal with crosses, and in Tim Cahill Australia have one of the best jumpers in world football. He could give Pique and Ramos some serious problems.

Top bet: Both Teams To Score at 10/13