Pirates-Braves conclude marathon series
PITTSBURGH PIRATES (53-49, +15.2 Units)
at ATLANTA BRAVES (61-44, +7.5 Units)
First pitch: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -160, Pittsburgh +150, Total: 7.5
Sportsbook.com Prop Bets:
Pittsburgh Total Runs: 3.5 – Over (EVEN), Under (-120)
Atlanta Total Runs: 4 – Over (-120), Under (EVEN)
Team to Score First: Pittsburgh (-105), Atlanta (-115)
Will There be a 1st-Inning Run? Yes +115, No -145
Pittsburgh tries to salvage a series split in Thursday’s finale of a four-game set in Atlanta. This has been a well-pitched series so far, with both teams scoring just seven total runs apiece over 38 innings in the first three contests. Pittsburgh won 3-1 on Monday, but Atlanta took the past two games, both in extra innings, including a 19-inning marathon on Tuesday.
This game figures to provide much more offense with two struggling pitchers on the mound in Pittsburgh’s Kevin Correia and Braves hurler Derek Lowe. Although Lowe is a perfect 10-0 in 10 career starts versus the Pirates, the Bucs have pushed the Braves to the limit this series. With Correia’s sparkling success on the road this year, and injuries to three key Atlanta offensive players (C Brian McCann, 3B Chipper Jones and OF Jordan Schafer), the pick is PITTSBURGH with favorable 3-to-2 odds.
The FoxSheets show two highly-rated trends favoring the Pirates.
KEVIN CORREIA is 10-2 (83.3%, +11.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record). The average score was CORREIA 6.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 4*).
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (ATLANTA) - after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games. (25-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.5%, +26 units. Rating = 3*).
Like most opponents of the Pirates recently, Atlanta has had the upper hand in head-to-head contests. The Braves are 11-5 in the past 16 home meetings, but the Pirates have been a strong road team this year, going 27-24 (+13.1 Units) and outscoring opponents by an average of 4.2 to 3.9.
Correia (11-8, 4.38 ERA) has certainly struggled in his past three starts, allowing 15 runs and 22 hits in 14.1 innings. In his last outing, St. Louis lit him up for seven runs (2 HR) in 4.2 innings. However, Correia has been masterful on the road this year, going 9-2 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has only made two lifetime starts at Turner Field, but they were both pretty good, with a combined three runs and 11 strikeouts in 9.2 innings.
Lowe (6-8, 4.49 ERA) has had a July to forget. In four starts this month, he has a 5.96 ERA, .315 opponents’ BA and a pathetic eight strikeouts in 22.2 innings. Lowe has also pitched poorly at home this year, posting a 5.04 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in eight starts at Turner Field. However, pitching against Pittsburgh has been quite a boost to his career with a perfect 10-0 record in 10 starts versus the Bucs. He has a 2.64 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .223 opponents’ BA against the Pirates, including 2.00 ERA in three wins against them last season.
Atlanta will be without both catcher Brian McCann (oblique) and OF Jordan Schafer (finger) who were recently placed on the Disabled List. Braves 3B Chipper Jones (quadriceps) is limited to pinch-hitting duties. Pittsburgh has also put two offensive players on the DL in the past two days in OF Alex Presley (thumb) and SS Chase d’Arnaud (finger).
