Cnotes Thursday's MLB Early / Evening Best Bets + WNBA + CFL + NFL !

[CNOTES]

NFL Preseason
Short Sheet


Thursday, 8/11/2011

BALTIMORE at PHILADELPHIA, 7:30 PM ET
BALTIMORE: 21-8 Under in road games
PHILADELPHIA: 11-27 ATS if line is +3 to -3

JACKSONVILLE at NEW ENGLAND, 7:30 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 21-9 ATS in road games
NEW ENGLAND: 2-8 ATS vs. conference

SEATTLE at SAN DIEGO, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
SEATTLE: 4-0 ATS vs. AFC West
SAN DIEGO: 37-24 Over vs. non-conference

DENVER at DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET
DENVER: 34-21 ATS vs. non-conference
DALLAS: 17-29 ATS as favorite

ARIZONA at OAKLAND, 10:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 4-0 Under in road games
OAKLAND: 7-0 Over on grass field

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Preseason


Thursday, 8/11/2011

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NFL preseason Thursday: What bettors need to know
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Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-3.5, 35.5)

Starter Report

Jaguars: Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert will start for the Jags against the Patriots Thursday. Gabbert gets the nod because first-string QB David Garrard is out with a stiff back. Veteran backup Luke McCown will run out with the second team and Jags coach Jack Del Rio says Gabbert and McCown should split the majority of snaps.

Recently signed 39-year-old Todd Bouman will lead the Jags’ scrub offense in the latter parts of Thursday’s game.

Starting running back Maurice Jones-Drew, tight end Marcedes Lewis and defensive end Aaron Kampman all will not play Thursday.

Patriots: New England head coach Bill Belichick isn’t talking about his player rotations for Thursday, although he did hint that players who didn’t practice on Tuesday would most likely not suit up for the team’s first preseason game.

That would rule out defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth, tight end Rob Gronkowski, offensive linemen Dan Connolly and Chris Morris, and linebacker Brandon Spikes.

If we follow Belichick’s past rotation patterns for the first week of the preseason, we can expect to see Tom Brady and the rest of the first-string offense in for most, if not all, of the first quarter.

Things to remember: This is the first preseason meeting between these two teams since 2004 when the Jaguars ran roughshod over the Patriots on this field in a 31-0 victory… Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio is 20-12 SU and 20-10-1 ATS during the preseason, including 10-1-1 ATS as a dog… Bill Belichick is 36-29 SU and 33-26-6 ATS in the preseason, including 20-11-1 ATS when seeking revenge from a preseason loss.

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 34)

Starter Report

Ravens: Starting quarterback Joe Flacco will play the entire first quarter with backups Tyrod Taylor and Hunter Cantwell playing the rest of the game. Rookie QB Taylor is expected to get the bulk of the action. The Baltimore Sun reports the rookie from Virginia Tech will play for two and a half quarters before giving way to Cantwell midway through the fourth quarter.

The Ravens will be missing a few starters from the lineup Thursday. Center Matt Birk will not play due to a sore knee while corners Jimmy Smith and Domonique Foxworth are both doubtful.

Eagles: Philadelphia coach Andy Reid says Michael Vick and the rest of the first-team offense will play the first 12 minutes, while Vince Young and the backup unit will play the second and some of the third quarters. That leaves third stringer QB Mike Kafka with the mop-up duties.

Receivers Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson both won’t play Thursday. Maclin is dealing with an undisclosed illness and Jackson just reported to camp Monday after ending a brief holdout.

Things to remember: The Ravens defeated the Eagles 29-3 and 20-10 in the two most recent preseason meetings between these teams in 2007 and 2006… Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh is 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS in the preseason, including 3-0 SU and ATS in the first game… Andy Reid is 18-30 SU and 19-27-2 ATS in exhibition games, including 8-15 ATS at home and 3-9 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in lid lifters.

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 35.5)

Starter Report

Seahawks: Coach Pete Carroll refuses to reveal his playing time schedule for Thursday’s preseason opener but he has told reporters all healthy and available players will see the field.

We know Seattle will start Tavaris Jackson under center followed by Charlie Whitehurst and Josh Portis. Receiver Mike Williams will not play because of a toe sprain.

Chargers: Norv Turner is just as wishy-washy discussing preseason playing time as he making tough calls in big games. The Chargers coach told reporters earlier in the week that running back Ryan Matthews likely wouldn’t play Thursday because of a strained muscle in his leg but wouldn’t rule out the second-year pro taking the field in the preseason opener after a good Tuesday practice.

The Bolts aren't elaborating on playing time for their starters either but bettors can assume Philip Rivers and the rest of the first-string offense will play the majority of the first quarter. Billy Volek will take over the reins after Rivers, while Scott Tolzien will finish the game off under center.

Things to remember: Rivers played just one quarter in 2010 with top targets Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates all healthy and available.

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 34)

Starter Report

Broncos: The early talk was on whether Tim Tebow would win the starting quarterback job in Denver but things have changed pretty quickly. Quarterback Kyle Orton will lead the Broncos first-team offense onto the field Thursday and is expected to stay for 12 offensive snaps.

Tebow is listed as the second-string QB right now, but, from the way Denver writers are talking, Brady Quinn is playing well enough to push Tebow all the way to the bottom of the depth chart. Quinn and Tebow should split the last three quarters against Dallas.

Cowboys: Coach Jason Garrett says his starters will see between eight to 12 plays before turning the ball over to his backup players.

Tony Romo will lead the first-string offense followed by Jon Kitna and Stephen McGee. Tom Brandstater, last on the team’s depth chart at quarterback, will likely get some action at the end of the game as well.

Dallas will be missing a few starters because of injuries: G Montrae Holland, CB Mike Jenkins and NT Jay Ratliff all won’t suit up Thursday.

Things to remember: Dallas is 9-16 SU and 8-17 ATS in the first game of the preseason… Fox is 19-17 SU and 16-19-1 ATS during the preseason, including 3-0 SU and ATS as a pick or underdog of less than three points.

Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders (-3.5, 32.5)

Starter Report

Cardinals: Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt wouldn’t go into specifics about how long his starters would play but he did say newly acquired quarterback Kevin Kolb would play more than starting QBs typically play in the first preseason game of the year.

Max Hall and John Skelton will get the majority of action under center once Kolb leaves the game.

Arizona Republic reporter and Cardinals beat writer Kent Somers

had a beautiful line talking about the high-turnover this past

offseason in Arizona and how it might affect the Cards game plan:

“Coach Ken Whisenhunt cares little about winning in the preseason, but

that has to be especially true this year.”

Raiders: New coach Hue Jackson said he’ll use Thursday night's exhibition opener against Arizona to evaluate his players.

“I want our guys to get used to when we step out on the field we’re playing to win," Jackson told the media. "Some people use it for evaluation and I do, too. That’s part of it. But it’s also about winning.”

Oakland’s top three quarterbacks, Jason Campbell, Kyle Boller and Trent Edwards, are all former starters in the NFL. Raiders running back Darren McFadden is still recovering from a broken orbital bone and won't play Thursday.

Things to remember: The Cardinals have not made winning a priority during the preseason since the arrival of Whisenhunt four years ago, going 5-11 SU and 6-10 ATS, including 1-3 SU and ATS in the first preseason games of the season.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Preseason


Thursday, 8/11/2011

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NFL preseason betting: Coaches to follow and fade
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The NFL preseason is a month-long opportunity for sports bettors to exploit generic lines that can offer plenty of value if you're paying attention.

While teams' against the spread numbers tend to fluctuate from year to year during the regular season, that often isn't the case in the preseason, where most coaches have very pronounced histories and ATS trends.

Unlike in the regular season, many coaches will reveal to the media details about their upcoming game, such as who will play and how long, what their intentions are, what areas of improvement they'll try to identify, and so on.

With that in mind, here is a look at coaches you should consider betting on or against in the 2011 preseason, which kicks off Thursday:

COACHES TO FADE

Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts

In reality, this isn't a fade on Caldwell, the Colts' third-year coach, but rather on Bill Polian, the team's president. As an organization, the Colts don't believe there is any correlation between preseason and regular season success. They are routinely among the league's worst preseason teams both straight up and against the spread but still find themselves in the playoffs every year.

The Colts pamper their veterans and give Peyton Manning extremely limited action, often times looking for reasons to avoid playing him at all. Manning is expected to miss the Colts' first preseason game, and it's a safe bet he'll play just a series or two at most in the other three.

Caldwell is 1-7 straight up and 2-6 ATS in his two seasons as coach, continuing the Colts' tradition of preseason ineptitude that began with Tony Dungy. Since 2005, the Colts are 4-22 straight up and 7-18-1 ATS, which includes a 1-3 ATS mark last year, in which the Colts lost games by 20, 13 and 35 points.

Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks

Carroll is 11-10 straight-up and 12-8-1 ATS all-time in the preseason, a record that includes his first two head coaching jobs in the 1990s with the New York Jets and New England Patriots. But now, more than a decade later, it seems Carroll has mellowed with age.

Carroll's Seahawks went 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS last year during the preseason, and this year, despite the layoff from the lockout, it doesn't appear that Carroll is approaching these games with any level of seriousness. The second-year Seahawks coach has been on Twitter all week imploring fans to send in their suggestions for Seattle's first play call, and it's become a bit of a circus act.

With so much uncertainty surrounding the Seahawks already, it might not be a bad idea to fade Carroll's club.


COACHES TO FOLLOW

Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars

If Del Rio's teams performed as well in the regular season as they do in the preseason, then perhaps he wouldn't find himself on the hot seat every year. But unfortunately for Del Rio, his preseason success rarely carries over, as he's led the Jaguars to just two playoff appearances in eight seasons as a head coach.

Del Rio is 20-12 SU and 20-11-1 ATS since 2003, including a 5-2-1 ATS mark the last two seasons. Overall, Del Rio has never finished worse than 2-2 ATS in the preseason, posting a 3-1 record four times, a 2-1-1 record once and a 2-2 record three times.

This preseason might offer Del Rio his biggest challenge yet, as he'll be up against two organizations — the Patriots and Falcons — who take the preseason seriously. However, he'll also be up against one of the worst preseason coaches, Chan Gailey of the Bills, who is 4-10 ATS all time.

Mike Shanahan, Washington Redskins

Expect the Redskins to play with a real sense of urgency during the preseason, since these exhibition games will represent the team's four best opportunities to win a game this season.

Shanahan has always played to win in the preseason, and that's apparent when looking at his 44-28 SU mark, which is far and away the best of any active head coach. More impressive is Shanahan's ability to cover the spread, as he's posted a 39-31-2 ATS mark all time, including a 2-2 ATS mark last year.

With many people questioning the direction of the Redskins franchise, Shanahan will be looking to deliver reasons for optimism throughout the month of August.

 

[CNOTES]

CFL
Dunkel


Week 7

Edmonton at Montreal
The Eskimos look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home games. Edmonton is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+6 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 11

Game 491-492: Edmonton at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 112.450; Montreal 116.340
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 4; 51
Vegas Line: Montreal by 6 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+6 1/2); Under

CFL
Long Sheet


Week 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, August 11

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EDMONTON (5 - 1) at MONTREAL (4 - 2) - 8/11/2011, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-1 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CFL
Write-Up


Week 7

Edmonton (5-1) @ Montreal (4-2)-- Eskimos turned ball over five times in Winnipeg last week, losing first game of year; they're 2-1 on foreign soil, winning SU as dogs in Regina/Calgary. Five of six Alouette games went over total; four of last five Edmonton tilts stayed under. Montreal is 2-3 vs spread as a favorite, but their last three wins are by 14-23-13 points- they're 4-0 allowing less than 27 points.
CFL


Week 7

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Trend Report
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Thursday, August 11

7:30 PM
EDMONTON vs. MONTREAL
Edmonton is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Montreal is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home

CFL


Week 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Canadian bacon: CFL Week 7 betting preview and picks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Edmonton Eskimos at Montreal Alouettes (-6.5, 54.5)

The Eskimos have performed way above expectations in the first third of the CFL schedule, mainly because of the extraordinary play of their young linebackers, who have excelled at man-to-man coverage.

This defensive squad often rolls the dice and goes for those high risk/high reward plays by constantly blitzing the opposing quarterback. However, that could prove costly against Montreal's powerful offense.

Edmonton's offense just isn't the same without WR Fred Stamps who was the best receiver in the CFL as of last week. Stamps is out until September with an abdominal injury and the Eskimos will struggle to fill the void no matter how good QB Ricky Ray is even if WR Andrew Nowacki returns from injury.

The Eskimos will need to overuse versatile RB Jerome Messam and that may not be a very good idea against Montreal. Another poor idea was to have the Eskimos spend the week in Winnipeg before flying to Montreal instead of going back home to enjoy their fabulous facilities in Edmonton.

As for the Alouettes, they will be playing at home with the support of their fans and are recharged after a convincing win against the Argonauts in Toronto. Anthony Calvillo has more options in front of him than Ray and he’ll take full advantage of them in Week 7.

Pick: Montreal

 

[CNOTES]

WNBA
Dunkel


Atlanta at Phoenix
The Dream look to build on their 7-2-2 ATS record in their last 11 Thursday games. Atlanta is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+6). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 11

Game 601-602: San Antonio at Connecticut (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 109.490; Connecticut 113.708
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 4; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 6; 151
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+6); Over

Game 603-604: Tulsa at Seattle (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 97.460; Seattle 114.595
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 17; 136
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 13; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-13); Under

Game 605-606: Atlanta at Phoenix (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 111.859; Phoenix 116.182
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 180
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 186
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+6); Under




WNBA


Thursday, August 11

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. CONNECTICUT
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio's last 10 games when playing Connecticut
San Antonio is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
Connecticut is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Connecticut is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home

10:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Phoenix's last 12 games at home

10:00 PM
TULSA vs. SEATTLE
Tulsa is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Tulsa is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tulsa
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


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WNBA


Thursday, August 11

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Lady luck: Thursday's best WNBA bets
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San Antonio Silver Stars at Connecticut Sun (-6, 151)

All of a sudden, the San Antonio Silver Stars are in desperation mode.

After tearing up the league early this season, the Silver Stars have dropped four of their last five straight up, covering only twice during the slide.

On Tuesday, it got downright ugly. San Antonio was outscored 20-5 in the second quarter against Indiana en route to an 81-68 loss as a 6.5-point underdog.

"We didn't come out aggressive," Sophia Young, who had 13 points but hit just three of 10 on free throws, told reporters. "You can't expect to win when you don't come out hard. We have to get ready for Connecticut ... We have to get one of the (next) two on the road."

That’s going to be difficult unless the team’s offense comes around. The Silver Stars are averaging fewer than 72 points per game since starting the season 7-1, when they put up more than 90 points per contest.

The Sun have covered in five straight and should keep that run going against San Antonio.

Pick: Sun


Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury (-6, 186)

The Dream have been on a nice run after opening the season with a bunch of injuries. They have won seven of their last nine games to pull within a game of .500 but Thursday’s date with the Mercury will be a major test.

Phoenix was mired in a rotten stretch that saw the club go 1-5 both straight up and against the spread before dropping the surging Minnesota Lynx 85-80. Diana Taurasi stepped up with 26 points and had a key steal in the final minute to secure the victory.

"We usually like to fight (defensively)," Taurasi told reporters. "We have to get that fighting spirit back and I think tonight we gained that back."

That’s bad news for Atlanta visiting a rejuvenated Mercury club.

Pick: Mercury

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Dunkel


San Diego at NY Mets
The Mets look to take advantage of a San Diego team that is 2-9 in its last 11 road games against a left-handed starter. New York is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-125). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 11

Game 901-902: San Diego at NY Mets (12:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Luebke) 14.787; NY Mets (Niese) 15.804
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-125); Over

Game 903-904: Colorado at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 15.174; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.820
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Under

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.928; St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.223
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Under

Game 907-908: Houston at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 14.185; Arizona (Saunders) 15.840
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-180); Over

Game 909-910: Kansas City at Tampa Bay (12:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 15.870; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 14.955
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+155); Over

Game 911-912: Oakland at Toronto (12:37 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Moscoso) 15.259; Toronto (Mills) 15.676
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-135); Under

Game 913-914: LA Angels at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Chatwood) 15.179; NY Yankees (Colon) 16.471
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-200); Over

Game 915-916: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.687; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.118
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Under

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.064; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.441
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-130);

Game 919-920: Washington at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 15.753; Cubs (Dempster) 14.276
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-105); N/A

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Write-Up


Thursday, August 11

Hot pitchers
-- Gallardo is 3-1, 2.25 in his last four starts. Carpenter is 3-1, 3.38 in his last five outings.
-- Zimmerman is 3-2, 2.08 in his last seven road starts. Dempster is 3-1, 3.24 in his last four home starts.
-- Saunders is 2-1, 2.79 in his last four starts.

-- Niemann is 4-0, 1.90 in his last six starts.
-- Colon is 2-0, 3.24 in his last three starts.
-- Verlander is 4-0, 2.90 in his last four starts.
-- Buehrle is 3-0, 3.00 in his last four starts. Tillman is 2-1, 3.69 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Niese has a 7.17 RA in his last four starts. Luebke is 1-3, 4.62 in his last four starts.
-- Cueto is 1-2, 5.60 in his last three starts. Chacin is 0-4, 5.48 in his last four road starts.
-- Myers is 0-6, 5.72 in his last eight starts.

-- Duffy is 1-3, 6.07 in his last five starts.
-- Moscoso is 1-2, 7.84 in his last four starts. Mills is 1-1, 3.65 in his two starts for Toronto this season.
-- Chatwood is 1-3, 6.08 in his last four starts.
-- Carmona is 0-1, 5.27 in his last couple starts.

Totals
-- Six of last nine Cincinnati home games went over the total.
-- Padres' last nine road games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Cardinals' last six home games.
-- Under is 6-1 in Dempster's last seven home starts.
-- Six of last seven Houston games went over the total.

-- Under is 13-3 in White Sox' last sixteen road games.
-- Seven of last ten games in Bronx went over the total.
-- Over is 13-1-2 in last sixteen Oakland games.
-- Under is 11-6 in Kansas City's last seventeen road games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Carmona starts.

Hot Teams
-- San Diego won five of its last seven games.
-- Cubs won eight of their last ten games.
-- Colorado won five of its last seven road games.
-- Brewers won 13 of their last 14 games. Cardinals won four of their last six games.
-- Arizona won three of its last four games.

-- Bronx won nine of its last twelve games. Angels won four of their last six games.
-- Blue Jays won five of their last seven home games. A's won three of their last four games.
-- Tampa Bay won six of its last eight games.
-- Indians won three of their last four games.
-- White Sox won five of their last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Mets lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Washington is 6-9 on the road since the All-Star break.
-- Reds lost six of their last eight games, allowing 42 runs.
-- Astros lost nine of their last twelve games.

-- Detroit lost its last three games, scoring eight runs.
-- Orioles lost 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Royals lost five of their last six games.

Umpires
-- SD-NY-- Five of last seven Carapazza games went over the total.
-- Col-Cin-- Over is 11-5 in last sixteen Johnson games.
-- Mil-StL-- Under is 10-0-1 in last eleven Gibson games.
-- Hst-Az-- Five of last six Scott games stayed under the total.
-- Wsh-Chi-- Under is 12-5-1 in Porter games this season.

-- Chi-Balt-- Home teams won last eight Conroy games.
-- LA-NY-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Winters games.
-- A's-Tor-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Danley games.
-- Det-Clev-- Underdogs won last five Carlson games, with four of those five going over the total.
-- KC-TB-- Road team won ten of last thirteen Reyburn games.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB


Thursday, August 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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12:10 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. TAMPA BAY
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

12:10 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. NY METS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 5 games
NY Mets are 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

12:35 PM
COLORADO vs. CINCINNATI
Colorado is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

12:37 PM
OAKLAND vs. TORONTO
Oakland is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Oakland's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto's last 15 games when playing Oakland
Toronto is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home

1:05 PM
LA ANGELS vs. NY YANKEES
LA Angels are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels

2:20 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CHI CUBS
Washington is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Chi Cubs are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 12 games

7:05 PM
DETROIT vs. CLEVELAND
Detroit is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cleveland
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

7:05 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. BALTIMORE
Chi White Sox are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Chi White Sox's last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Baltimore's last 17 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

8:15 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

9:40 PM
HOUSTON vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Houston's last 24 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Arizona's last 14 games
Arizona is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Houston

 

[CNOTES]

MLB


Thursday, August 11

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Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
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Streaking

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (16-5, 2.30 ERA)

Verlander pulled into a tie with CC Sabathia for the MLB win lead at 16 by picking up his fourth straight victory the last time he took the ball, downing the Royals 4-3.

"He was drained," Leyland said of Verlander after that win. "He was spent, I could see that. But I thought he pitched great.”

Verlander has thrown at least seven innings in each of those wins while striking out at least seven batters. The big righty sits just inside the top 20 in MLB’s money starters, earning just over six units for his supporters.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers (13-7, 3.56)

Gallardo has allowed just four runs over his last four outings and has given up just eight hits during his last 15 innings on the mound.

Gallardo cruised past Houston as a -200 favorite in his last start, yielding a single run over eight innings while striking out six and walking one.


Slumping

Tyler Chatwood, Los Angeles Angels (6-8, 4.10 ERA)

Chatwood has just one win on his resume since Jun 24 and his last two outings weren’t pretty. He allowed 11 runs over 11 2/3 innings combined over those two starts.

Still, he has been pretty solid most of the time. The Angeles have failed to score a run while the rookie has been in the game in eight of his starts this season.

“Once we give him a little bit more support, he'll feel more comfortable on the mound,” teammate Bobby Abreu told reporters of Chatwood. “The more times he goes out there the better he'll be and his command is going to help him stay in the game longer."

Brett Myers, Houston Astros (3-12, 4.76 ERA)

These are tough days to be a starting pitcher for the Houston Astros. Myers leads the club with 14 quality starts, but is mired in a career-high six-game losing skid.

Myers allowed five earned runs on 11 hits over six innings of work during a 7-5 loss to Milwaukee his last time out.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB


Thursday, August 11

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Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets
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Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds (-135, 8)

Johnny Cueto had everything the Reds were looking for when he broke into the league – a great delivery, excellent movement on his pitches, and some swagger on the hill.

His problem was always consistency. He often spoiled solid outings with one bad inning.

This season Cueto’s shown maturity, keeping himself out of those big innings while posting a sparkling 2.06 ERA and three complete games to date. However, he had a rough outing in his last trip to the hill, getting drilled for seven hits and five earned runs over 3 2/3 innings in a blowout loss to the Cubs.

Cueto also hit a couple of batters and walked three others.

"He wasn't sharp early in the count," Reds manager Dusty Baker told reporters. "He was spinning off. We were hoping he'd get sharp. We didn't make a couple of defensive plays.”

In all, it was one of those games you just throw out the window. We’re betting Cueto will bounce back strong.

Pick: Reds


San Diego Padres at New York Mets (-120, 7.5)

With two lefties sharing the hill, many bettors begin their handicapping by taking a long look at the under. Thursday’s matchup between the Padres and Mets could be a major exception.

Despite and offense that’s producing only 3.72 runs per game (27th in MLB) and a .237 team batting average, the Padres are hammering the over.

They had the over on a 9-1-1 run heading into Wednesday’s action, moving the team’s season over/under record to 60-52-5. On Thursday they’ll start Cory Luebke, who has seen each of his last three outings play over as well.

Meanwhile, the Mets counter with Jon Niese who has been very good to over bettors as well. He has seen 14 of his last 19 home starts and 21 of his last 30 trips to the hill overall play above the posted total.

Pick: Over

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Short Sheet


Thursday, August 11

National League

SAN DIEGO at NY METS, 12:10 PM ET
LUEBKE: 4-1 TSR as an underdog of +100 to +150
NIESE: 12-3 OVER at home when the total is 7.5 or less

COLORADO at CINCINNATI, 12:35 PM ET
CHACIN: 0-4 TSR as an underdog
CUETO: 8-1 OVER as a favorite

MILWAUKEE at ST LOUIS, 8:15 PM ET
GALLARDO: 2-8 TSR as a road underdog of +100 to +125
CARPENTER: 17-5 UNDER in home games against division opponents

HOUSTON at ARIZONA, 9:40 PM ET
MYERS: 10-4 TSR as a road underdog of +150 to +175
SAUNDERS: 28-15 UNDER in night games

WASHINGTON at CHICAGO CUBS, 2:20 PM - ** Write-In Game ET
ZIMMERMANN: 6-2 TSR as a road underdog of +100 to +150
DEMPSTER: 39-19 TSR at home when the money line is +125 to -12

American League

KANSAS CITY at TAMPA BAY, 12:10 PM ET
DUFFY: 4-10 TSR in all games
NIEMANN: 10-2 UNDER as a home favorite of -150 to -200

OAKLAND at TORONTO, 12:37 PM ET
MOSCOSO: 1-5 TSR as a road underdog
MILLS: 4-1 TSR when the total is 9 to 9.5

LA ANGELS at NY YANKEES, 1:05 PM ET
CHATWOOD: 6-2 OVER as a road underdog
COLON: 6-0 TSR in day games

DETROIT at CLEVELAND, 7:05 PM ET
VERLANDER: 18-4 TSR against division opponents
CARMONA: 5-10 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5

CHI WHITE SOX at BALTIMORE, 7:05 PM ET
BUEHRLE: 15-7 TSR in all games
TILLMAN: 7-4 OVER as a home underdog

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

TSR = Team Start Record

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, August 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Jacksonville - 7:30 PM ET New England -3.5 500
New England - Under 35.5 500

Baltimore - 7:30 PM ET Baltimore +3 500
Philadelphia - Under 34 500

Seattle - 8:00 PM ET San Diego -3.5 500
San Diego - Over 35.5 500

Denver - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -3 500
Dallas - Over 34.5 500

Arizona - 10:00 PM ET Arizona +3.5 500
Oakland - Under 33 500


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MLB

Thursday, August 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chi. White Sox - 7:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox -119 500
Baltimore - Under 8.5 500

Detroit - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland +166 500
Cleveland - Under 7.5 500

Milwaukee - 8:15 PM ET Milwaukee +122 500
St. Louis - Under 7.5 500

Houston - 9:40 PM ET Houston +161 500
Arizona - Under 9 500


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CFL

Thursday, August 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Edmonton - 7:30 PM ET Edmonton +6.5 500

Montreal - Under 54 500

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WNBA


7:30 PM ETSan Antonio at Connecticut

Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

SA 601 12-9 (6-5 V) - 150.5 UNDER

CONN 602 14-7 (9-1 H) - -5.5 CONN

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts


10:00 PM ETAtlanta at Phoenix

Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

ATL 605 10-11 (4-5 V) - 186 UNDER

PHO 606 12-9 (6-4 H) - -6 PHO

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts



10:00 PM ETTulsa at Seattle

Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

TUL 603 1-20 (0-10 V) - 142.5 UNDER[/B

]SEA 604 12-10 (8-1 H) - -13.5 Seattle

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts