NL Futures Analysis - Post-deadline
August 3, 2015
Last week, we took a glimpse at the major league pre-trade deadline futures, marveling at how many teams had decisions to make regarding how seriously they planned on pursuing the postseason. The Blue Jays, Royals and Astros were buyers, indecisive Detroit wound up selling and the Yankees, Orioles, and Padres essentially stayed put.
Less than half of the National’s teams are above .500., yet the Padres clung to their assets in the hopes of an unlikely run at the postseason. San Diego and Arizona opened Monday’s action 6.5 games back of the second Wild Card, and even though there’s still some movement still ahead via waivers, we can now bet futures confidently now that we know every team's personnel going forward.
Odds to win the AL and NL pennants as well as the World Series have been updated at numerous shops, so below are our post-trade deadline recommendations for the National League. Find the American League here. (Odds via 5Dimes)
Arizona (+8000 to win NL, +20000 to win it all): While Paul Goldschmidt is having an MVP-type season, the Diamondbacks look like a team whose current ceiling is .500. They were on the verge of getting there over the weekend in Houston but dropped the final two games to lose the series and snap a six-game winning streak. Considering the Snakes won 64 games last year in finishing with baseball’s worst record, shooting for the stars and topping 80 would be an impressive improvement. That won’t make the playoffs though. Odds moved from +12000 and +23000, but even if they had stayed put at those figures, Arizona wouldn’t be worth backing.
Atlanta (+9500 to win NL, +25000 to win it all): The Braves knew coming into the season that they were rebuilding and have actually performed far better than expected, entering the week just 10 games under .500. Even with Freddie Freeman back, this offense would struggle to do enough damage to win your Tuesday night softball league.
Chi.Cubs (+1225 to win NL, +2500 to win it all): Despite falling well behind the Cardinals and Pirates, the Cubs have realistic aspirations of making their first postseason since 2008. Including the Bartman game, they’ve lost eight straight and this year’s best-case scenario likely offers one crack to snap that nasty streak and advance in a one-game playoff. You’ll either hear they’re too young or so young they’re bullet-proof, depending on the results. Adding Dan Haren and Tommy Hunter to bolster the pitching didn’t move the needle much, so even if Joe Maddon’s team is going to be short on ammo even if they manage to extend their season.
Cincinnati (+18500 to win NL, +50000 to win it all): Selling off Johnny Cueto was your cue to check out here, even though the Reds did enter the season with a talent base that should’ve produced more victories than they’ve managed. Closer Aroldis Chapman and slugger Jay Bruce were coveted by contenders but remained in place, while Mike Leakewas moved to the Giants. Manager Brian Price should be on a short leash going forward for failing to get more out of this group.
Colorado (+30000 to win NL, +85000 to win it all): Last year’s Rockies won 66 games due to massive injuries. This year’s team barely got going and has often appeared disinterested despite the usual gaudy offensive numbers. They moved All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto for Jose Reyes and prospects, ultimately choosing to keep Reyes for now. Carlos Gonzalez too. This will be an interesting team to watch since they appear to be retooling on the run, but there’s obviously no value in chasing what would be an astronomical payoff this season.
LA Dodgers (+335 to win NL, +700 to win it all): Despite picking up starters Alex Wood and Mat Latos to round out the rotation, their odds barely moved, which tells you books were protecting themselves against the possible acquisition of David Price or Cole Hamels, who ended up in Toronto and Texas, respectively. The brilliance of starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are still worth backing, but there are still questions that remained unanswered. Flammable Jim Johnson and lefty Luis Avilan joined the shaky bullpen. Michael Morse as an offensive reinforcement is yawn-worthy. The hope now is that Yasiel Puig finds his groove in order to hold off rival San Francisco.
Miami (+18500 to win NL, +50000 to win it all): Since Jose Fernandez, Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon have all missed significant time, the Marlins never had a chance this season. The Fish could play a spoiler role in September despite trading a few of their assets to NL contenders, but they have no chance at making the playoffs.
Milwaukee (+70000 to win NL, +200000 to win it all): Oddsmakers were still protecting themselves entering deadline week, but after the Brewers moved outfielders Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra in addition to pitchers Mike Fiers and Jonathan Broxton, their numbers skyrocketed. Starting 4-17 effectively ended their season early.
NY Mets (+1075 to win NL, +2400 to win it all): After sweeping the Nats to even the NL East over the weekend, it’s definitely tempting to take a shot on those wonderful Mets arms. They added Jose Uribe and Kelly Johnson in underwhelming moves, but went for it in dealing highly-regarded pitching prospects Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa to acquire Yoenis Cespedes. He’s the kind of hitter who makes everyone in the lineup better merely via his presence, so since David Wright should be back at some point, the anemic offense that has cost this team so many games likely won’t be such a detriment going forward. Tyler Clippard joining the bullpen should also help, so if you want to back a long shot, the payoff isn’t likely to get much better.
Pittsburgh (+675 to win NL, +1400 to win it all): If Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano and AJ Burnett can get into October without wearing down, there’s enough pitching to take a shot here, especially with Cole around to trust in a one-and-done Wild Card. Of course, Burnett just went on the DL with elbow inflammation and the 38-year-old doesn’t feel it’s a problem that will go away. They added lefty starter J.A. Happ and elite reliever Joakim Soria to edge the bullpen, so there’s enough here to hold on to the top Wild Card. They won 3-of-4 against the Cardinals and Nationals in July, not to mention sweeping the Padres. It’s time to hop on the bandwagon if you’re going to.
San Diego (+3500 to win NL, +8000 to win it all): GM A.J. Preller unexpectedly held on to all his major potential trade pieces, so books re-adjusted significantly since these odds were at +5500 and +21000 just last week due to the anticipated fire sale of guys like James Shields, Craig Kimbrel and Justin Upton. They’re not necessarily through yet, but need to win at nearly a 70 percent clip to overcome a lethargic season thus far. There’s no way to seriously expect the Padres to play well enough to overcome the teams already in front of them. Fairy tale endings are nice, but irrational to consider given what we’ve seen thus far from this bunch of underachievers.
San Francisco (+750 to win NL, +1500 to win it all): Following wins in 13 of 14 games, the defending champs looked like they were going to run away and hide, but enter a week’s worth of road games against the Braves and Cubs as losers of three of four. They’re right on the Dodgers heels and still have a number of intangibles in play, including Madison Bumgarner to pitch a potential Wild Card game. Adding Cincinnati’s Leake to help strengthen the rotation with Tim Hudson on the DL can only help. Take advantage of these odds while your still can. They’re not likely to be this friendly much longer.
St. Louis (+280 to win NL, +500 to win it all): Because the Dodgers failed to make a major splash, oddsmakers have now installed the Cardinals, armed with the best record in baseball, as NL favorites. They’ve got a substantial lead for home field advantage in the National League, but there are certainly questions about their starting rotation since they didn’t replace Adam Wainwright. Although John Lackey, Carlos Martinez, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha can hold the fort down, there are enough question marks to resist riding with the Redbirds. They’ve added Broxton and Steve Cishek to the bullpen and picked up another bat in Brandon Moss, but I’d wait to see if there’s not a more lucrative payoff available in the coming weeks if they hit a rough patch. At the moment, having the best record in baseball in spite of a few glaring question marks doesn’t make for a good buy.
Washington (+390 to win NL, +800 to win it all): Ace Max Scherzer has done his part in anchoring a rotation that was expected to be baseball’s deepest and most formidable, but only Jordan Zimmermann has joined him in being consistent. Doug Fister, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez have all had their issues, as has the bullpen. Fortunately, Fister and Gonzalez has picked up their level and Jonathan Papelbon came on board to close, instantly making Drew Storen one of baseball’s premier set-up men. Both the defense and the bats have also had moments that haven’t inspired confidence, though it will help that Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman both returned to the lineup to provide better protection for standout Bryce Harper. Playing in baseball’s weakest division lends itself nicely to ensuring the Nats will make the playoffs, but nothing Matt Williams has done as a manager leads you to believe he can lead this team to the top.
