AL Futures Analysis - Post-deadline
August 4, 2015
Last week, we took a glimpse at the major league pre-trade deadline futures, marveling at how many teams had decisions to make regarding how seriously they planned on pursuing the postseason. The Blue Jays, Royals and Astros were buyers, indecisive Detroit wound up selling and the Yankees, Orioles, and Padres essentially stayed put.
All but four of the American League's teams entered the week with 50 or more wins, so there is a ton of meaningful baseball left since all of those teams can legitimately believe they're only a hot streak away from knocking on the postseason door. Even though there's still some movement still ahead via waivers, we can now bet futures confidently now that we know every team's personnel going forward.
Odds to win the AL and NL pennants as well as the World Series have been updated at numerous shops, so below are our post-trade deadline recommendations for the American League. Find the National League here. (Odds via 5Dimes)
Baltimore (+1350 to win AL, +3000 to win it all): They weren't all fancy and cut-throat about it like Toronto, but the Orioles did reinforce their playoff push by adding Gerardo Parra as a significant outfield upgrade. He'll bat second and can play left or right at an extremely high level. Questions about their pitching remain, but the Birds have scored at least six runs in four of their last five and got their critical West Coast road swing off on the right foot with a rout in Oakland. Baltimore has seven September dates against the Jays, so that should be how its fortunes are decided.
Boston (+6000 to win AL, +15000 to win it all): Books had a dramatic change of heart on the Red Sox. They didn't do much, trading Shane Victorino and making no additions, but the plug appears to have been pulled on a late resurgence. Entering deadline week, odds were still a rather conservative +2500 and +5000, but these new numbers come off like a carrot is being dangled for anyone who wants to thow away money on the miracle Sox. Flushing money down the toilet would serve the same purpose as backing this bunch.
Chi.Sox (+2400 to win AL, +5500 to win it all): A small surge saw their odds reworked from the +4000 and +10000 that were available last week, but this team remains a long shot and made no moves at the trade deadline. Chris Sale hasn't gotten the support from Jeff Samardzija to make the top of the rotation as formidable as the White Sox hoped it would be. Jose Quintana hasn't taken another step forward. Offensively, Jose Abreu hasn't gotten enough help. This team has too many holes to legitimately get behind despite the enticing odds.
Cleveland (+2800 to win AL, +6600 to win it all): The Tribe (+1900, +3500 last week) has been written off. Rebuilding on the run as young players like Giovanny Urshela and Francisco Lindor gain valuable experience, the Indians aren't worth backing.
Detroit (+2200 to win AL, +5000 to win it all): The decision to trade David Price and Yoenis Cespedes for young prospects was the right one. Disappointing all season, the Tigers had too many holes to try and use Miguel Cabrera's expected return in a few weeks as a rallying point. They'll be playing spoiler this year instead.
Houston (+665 to win AL, +1500 to win it all): Since they've lost at least 90 games in each of the last seven seasons, it probably shouldn't come as a surprise that the Astros are really going for it. Nope, no one expected this. Too young. A history of ineptitude. Wins in 11 of the first 15 games coming out of the All-Star break has this team looking like a contender. 20-year-old shortstop Carlos Correa looks like the game's next great star, Jed Lowrie is back to play third base and Carlos Gomez should help create a spark as the team's center fielder. The talent is there. The bullpen, one of the best in baseball, is worth backing. New additions Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers fill out the rotation behind ace Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh, so there's enough depth to hang on and finish this breakthrough season. They likely will run out of gas at some point, but it will be fun to watch the ride while it lasts.
Kansas City (+250 to win AL, +550 to win it all): The Royals have emerged as the clear favorite in the AL and, odds-wise, are second to only the Cardinals to win the World Series. Adding Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist were strokes of brilliance that supply KC with the finishing touches to a championship team. They'll get Alex Gordon back very soon. If Yordano Ventura, Edinson Volquez, Danny Duffy and Chris Young remain consistent, and get to one of baseball's best bullpens is certainly capable of hanging on to the cushion they've built atop the AL. If they end up with home field throughout the postseason, the Royals are the team to beat.
LA Angels (+625 to win AL, +1400 to win it all): With CJ Wilson on the DL and Jered Weaver coming off only his first rehab start as he returns from a hip injury, the Angels failing to acquire an arm at the deadline looks like a massive setback. David DeJesus, David Murphy and Shane Victorino improve Mike Sciocia's offensive options, but this group is still overly reliant on the brilliance of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. Despite the enticing odds, there doesn't appear to be enough here.
NY Yankees (+450 to win AL, +1050 to win it all): This is a terrible time to invest in the Yanks. Despite not coming up with another ace like Price or a closer like Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel, oddsmakers got stingier on the payoff. Since Michael Pineda has landed on the DL and the offense is bound to cool off at some point, there's going to be a time in the next few weeks where the much-improved Blue Jays or the plucky Orioles narrow the gap in the AL East. If you believe the Bronx Bombers have enough to shockingly win a pennant the year after Derek Jeter retires, there's going to be a much more lucrative opportunity than the current one to pounce on. Realistically, Dallin Betances and Andrew Miller could've really used another partner to help shorten games. GM Brian Cashman, to his credit, went hard after Kimbrel, but couldn't get a deal done.
Oakland (+10000 to win AL, +26000 to win it all): Stick a fork in this team. The books have. The A's were at +3700 and +9000 last week, but Billy Beane selling off assets and cutting his losses on a lost season forced the books to adjust aggressively. Selling off Zobrist, Kazmir and Tyler Clippard sealed the deal. There's no reason to invest any energy in the AL team that beat everyone else to 60 losses.
Seattle (+5500 to win AL, +13500 to win it all): A double-digit win streak would only get the disappointing Mariners to about .500, so there's not a lot to be hopeful about here. Still, with Felix Hernandez anchoring a rotation featuring talented arms like Hisashi Iwakuma, Mike Montgomery and Taijuan Walker, the Mariners probably do have a run in them. It isn't likely to be enough, but since James Paxton returning in September might make things interesting if the Mariners are able to hang around, this is the team to back if you're looking to irrationally chase a big payday. Among the current true longshots, this would be the only one to get behind since the odds are so juicy and the remaining schedule appears manageable.
Tampa Bay (+2200 to win AL, +5000 to win it all): A solid bullpen and some promising young bats have kept the Rays in contention, especially with ace Chris Archer emerging as a Cy Young candidate. That said, a losing home record and a lineup filled with guys who have no proven track record performing when the competition intensifies makes this a team to fade.
Texas (+3300 to win AL, +8000 to win it all): The Rangers have made a late push that certainly got the attention of the books, who were offering +4500/+13500 odds last week. Back near .500 and with more games remaining in Arlington than any team in baseball has left in their own park, there's still some life in this group. Although they have baseball's worst winning percentage at home, Cole Hamels is on board and Derek Holland should return from the DL later this month. Texas will play the spoiler role well, but a postseason berth seems far-fetched.
Toronto (+625 to win AL, +1400 to win it all): Hope you were able to take a shot at +1300/+3300 that were available last week, because those odds will never be seen again for this bunch. At .500 through 100 games, the Blue Jays have gone on a run after landing Price, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Revere in addition to relievers LaTroy Hawkins and Mark Lowe. They're going for it. Of Toronto's next 13 games, 10 will be at home, so this surge should continue since their schedule looks quite friendly. Armed with the best top-six of any batting order in the sport, the Jays are going to outscore a lot of people and should be a factor in the chase for both the division crown and the Wild Card race.