Cnotes preseason thread with stats-trends- qb rotation- picks etc. !!

[CNOTES]

HERE IS YOUR QB ROTATION DURING PRESEASON SOMETHING GOOD TO KNOW.....THE STARTERS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF GAMES USUALLY GO 1 OR 2 SERIES THEN OUT TO THE BACK UPS.

Preseason Report - NFC

July 25, 2014

Coaches · AFC · NFC

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach: Jason Garrett

Quarterback Rotation: Tony Romo, Brandon Weeden, Caleb Hanie, Dustin Vaughan (Rookie West Texas A&M)

Garrett and the Cowboys have not fared well in the preseason going 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 regular preseason games. Plus a total trend to watch for this preseason is that the Cowboys seem to just want to go thru the motions in their final game as the UNDER has gone 3-1 the last four years.

New York Giants

Head Coach: Tom Coughlin

Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib, Curtis Painter

A solid money-making trend has shown up for the Giants as of late as Tom Coughlin in the past four years has seemed to put no effort in the Giants dress rehearsal game as the Giants are 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 22 against the Jets.

Philadelphia Eagles

Head Coach: Chip Kelly

Quarterback Rotation: Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley, G. J. Kinne

There is not too much to look at for any preseason trends for head coach Chip Kelly. In his first year the Eagles went 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. However, the OVER went 3-1 in those games, which is something to keep an eye on as the Eagles preseason begins. Also, one thing that carried over from the Reid era is that the Eagles again lost their first preseason game which makes them 1-8 against the spread in the last nine opening preseason games. Philadelphia’s preseason opener this year is on Aug. 8 at Chicago.

Washington Redskins

Head Coach: Jay Gruden

Quarterback Rotation: Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy

Some solid trends going for the Redskins that Jay Gruden may went to build on. Washington went a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in last year’s preseason games, and they also have been money in their dress rehearsal games the last four years going 4-0 against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game for the Redskins is on Aug. 23 at Baltimore.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

Head Coach: Marc Trestman

Quarterback Rotation: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen, Jordan Palmer, David Fales (Rookie San Jose State)

In Trestman’s first year as head coach of the Bears – his prior offensive coordinator experience paid off as three of the four Bears games saw the OVER connect. In their dress rehearsal game against the Raiders the Bears scored a whopping 34 points. So let’s look for more wide-open play from Chicago as we head into this year’s preseason.

Detroit Lions

Head Coach: Jim Caldwell

Quarterback Rotation: Matthew Stafford, Kellen Moore, Dan Orlovsky, James Franklin (Rookie Missouri)

In the past two preseasons the Lions saw the OVER go a money making 6-2 – something I feel will continue with Caldwell now the Lions new head coach. Let’s not forget Caldwell tutored a pair of quality quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco – So offense is his forte. Just keep an eye on how the Lions come out offensively in their early preseason games.

Green Bay Packers

Head Coach: Mike McCarthy

Quarterback Rotation: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, Chase Rettig (Rookie Boston College)

Mike McCarthy and the Packers used to have a great preseason trend where the OVER hit at a super high rate – however the oddsmakers have finally caught up with this trend and now overvalue the OVER posted in the Green Bay games – resulting in the UNDER going 6-2 in the past two preseasons. So I would recommend that you take advantage of these high posted totals and lean towards the UNDER going forward. Plus another trend to watch this preseason is that the Packers have lost their opening preseason game the past four years. This year’s opener is on Aug. 9 at Tennessee.

Minnesota Vikings

Head Coach: Mike Zimmer

Quarterback Rotation: Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater (Rookie Louisville)

With Mike Zimmer taking over as coach of the Vikings, look for defense to be the forefront this preseason as Zimmer has been a defensive coordinator the last 14 years in the NFL. In his last two seasons as coordinator of the Bengals the UNDER was the easy winner in the Bengals dress rehearsal games. Look for this to continue this year in the Vikings dress rehearsal game on Aug. 23 at Kansas City.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Head Coach: Mike Smith

Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, T.J. Yates, Sean Renfree, Jeff Mathews (Rookie Cornell)

One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game. In the last nine years, the Falcons have gone 8-1 outscoring their opposition 203-88 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 23 when they play Tennessee at home. After last year’s down season I really look for the Falcons to be very motivated coming into this dress rehearsal game and use it as a starting point to get the season on a winning note. However if we take a look at the whole body of work for the Falcons over the past two preseasons we will see that they have lost seven of their eight preseason games played – with their only win coming in the above mentioned dress rehearsal game. And one last thing about Atlanta here is that in their first preseason game the past three years they have been dominated losing all while allowing 34, 31, and 28 points, which also made all three of these games fly OVER the posted total.

Carolina Panthers

Head Coach: Ron Rivera

Quarterback Rotation: Cam Newton (Injury- Ankle), Derek Anderson, Matt Blanchard, Joe Webb

A couple of trends have started to develop with Rivera settling in as head coach in the preseason for the Panthers. First off Rivera seems to want to look good in his dress rehearsal game going 2-0 the past two years. While in the fourth and final game, Rivera seems to just want to get this game over with as the UNDER has been the winning play the past two years. Both of these preseason finales have been against the Steelers which they finish up again on Aug. 28.

New Orleans Saints

Head Coach: Sean Payton

Quarterback Rotation: Drew Brees, Ryan Griffin, Luke McCown, Logan Kilgore (Rookie Middle Tennessee State)

A strong preseason trend we can follow with the Saints as their high octane offense sure gears up as the preseason progresses. In the past four seasons the Saints have seen the OVER go a perfect 8-0 in their last two preseason games (Week 3 & 4) of the year with 51, 57, 60, 41, 51, 61, 54, and 45 points scored. This year the Saints finish up with Indianapolis on Aug. 23 and Baltimore on Aug. 28.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Head Coach: Lovie Smith

Quarterback Rotation: Mike Glennon, Mike Kafka, Josh McCown, Alex Tanney

In his last two years in Chicago Lovie Smith had winning preseasons going 6-2 against the spread. I can see him wanting to get a winning attitude right off the bat in Tampa Bay – so let’s look for the Buccaneers to be a team to bet this preseason. Plus the Buccaneers used to be one of my favorite trend plays in the preseason as they were 6-2 against the spread in their first preseason game – this might be something to look into as Smith will want to win his first game as the Buccaneers head coach, especially in front of the home crowd on Aug. 8th against the Eagles.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

Head Coach: Bruce Arians

Quarterback Rotation: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, Logan Thomas (Rookie Virginia Tech)

Only one year of stats for Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians for us to look at, however Arizona went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in its four preseasons games from a year ago, with the UNDER also going 3-1. Something to keep an eye out for as this year’s preseason begins.

San Francisco 49ers

Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh

Quarterback Rotation: Colin Kaepernick, Josh Johnson, Blaine Gabbert, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Kory Faulkner (Rookie Southern Illinois)

Whether its preseason or regular season games, Jim Harbaugh wants to win every time his team takes the field. This sure has been a solid money maker the last two preseasons as the 49ers have gone 6-2 both straight up and against the spread. It is also important to post here that in this same timeframe San Francisco has seen the UNDER be the right play on both of their first two preseason games the past two years – while just the opposite is true as in their dress rehearsal game and final preseason game the OVER was the winning play. Making for a solid 8-0 run for us to look forward to this year.

Seattle Seahawks

Head Coach: Pete Carroll

Quarterback Rotation: Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, Terrelle Pryor, B. J. Daniels

Usually we like to fade the Super Bowl champions in the proceeding preseason – as how can a team be up for these early meaningless games. However if there is one exception it’s sure the Seahawks under Carroll – as Seattle is a money making 11-1 both straight up and against the spread the past three years. Top rated preseason trend in effect here especially when you throw in this year’s quarterback rotation.

St. Louis Rams

Head Coach: Jeff Fisher

Quarterback Rotation: Sam Bradford, Shaun Hill, Garrett Gilbert (Rookie SMU), Austin Davis

In his return to coaching Jeff Fisher has already shown us a trend that can help make us some money this preseason – as the OVER has gone 6-2 in the eight preseason games the Rams have played with Fisher calling the shots. The one other trend I found was that Fisher sure tries in the Rams dress rehearsal game where St. Louis is a perfect 2-0 ATS with both of these games being played on the road – this year’s dress rehearsal game is on the road again as the Rams visit Cleveland on Aug. 23.

----------------------------------------------------------------------


Preseason Report - AFC

July 25, 2014

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Head Coach: Doug Marrone

Quarterback Rotation: E.J. Manuel, Jeff Tuel, Dennis Dixon, Thad Lewis

Doug Marrone enters his second season as Buffalo’s head coach. He’s been in the NFL for seven years, from 2006-08 he served as the offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints after a four-year span as the offensive line coach of the New York Jets (2002-05). With this being only Doug Marrone’s second year as a Head Coach: we don’t have much to go on for his preseason trends – however I’ve isolated something that may give us a solid play for the Bills this preseason. Since he's still a fairly new head coach, I can see Marrone wanting to impress the home crowd in his first home game this preseason and this is backed by a strong recent trend for the Bills in the preseason – as Buffalo is 4-0 against the spread in their first home preseason game of the year last four years.

New York Jets

Head Coach: Rex Ryan

Quarterback Rotation: Geno Smith, Michael Vick, Matt Simms, Tajh Boyd (Rookie Clemson)

The Jets have been consistent in their first and last preseason games over the last four years. Rex Ryan has never put any effort in the Jets opening preseason game, evidenced by their 0-4 against the spread. While in their last preseason game of the year Ryan and the Jets defensive coaches sure take the day off as the Jets have seen the OVER go 4-0 since 2010. So right off the bat here we have a perfect 8-0 trend on the Jets to keep an eye on this preseason.

Miami Dolphins

Head Coach: Joe Philbin

Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Brock Jensen – (Rookie - North Dakota State)

This will be Philbin’s third year as head coach of the Dolphins, after going over his first two preseason campaigns, it’s very apparent that he puts very little effort into winning these meaningless games. In his first nine preseason games the Dolphins are a woeful 1-8 against the spread with their only win coming against the hapless Jaguars. So let’s make the Dolphins a definite fade this preseason.

New England Patriots

Head Coach: Bill Belichick

Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo (Rookie - Eastern Illinois)

Here is one of my top rated preseason plays, and it focuses on coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Belichick has never liked to give anything away to his opponents – just look at one of his press conferences to see what I mean – well something shows up in the preseason every year from New England that we can take advantage of. Week 3 of the preseason is when all teams do their dress rehearsal for the season with all starters on both sides of the ball playing into the third quarter. Well again Belichick doesn’t want his regular season Week 1 opponent to get any films to look at so he doesn’t take this game seriously – and it show shows up in the point spread logs as the Patriots over the past six seasons are a dismal 0-6 against the spread in this situation. Just to give you an example of how strong this is in last year’s dress rehearsal against the Lions, the Patriots were crushed 40-9 as one-point underdogs. So mark down Aug. 22 on your calendar as the Patriots host Carolina in their dress rehearsal game this year.

AFC North

Cleveland Browns

Head Coach: Mike Pettine

Quarterback Rotation: Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel (R Texas A&M), Tyler Thigpen, Connor Shaw (Rookie South Carolina)

With Pettine’s specialty being defense – let’s keep an eye out on the Browns UNDER this preseason – as he may concentrate on what he knows best trying to build the team. Another strong trend that has developed for Cleveland is its dress rehearsal games. The Browns are 0-3, losing all of these games both straight up and against the spread with the UNDER also going 3-0. One other note – when you see that Johnny Football will be getting the majority of the playing time in any of these Cleveland preseason games – I feel the Browns will be a solid bet – as his style will be perfect to easily move the ball up and down the field especially against the substitutes.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Head Coach: Mike Tomlin

Quarterback Rotation: Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, Landry Jones, Brandon Kay (Rookie Cincinnati)

The new CBA rules sure took its effect on the Steelers in last year’s preseason – with Tomlin not being able to incorporate his usual intense training camp, and it showed on the field as the Steelers went 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. Something to watch for as the preseason starts this year. Plus the Steelers are on a 0-4 run in their preseason home games over the past two years all as a favorite, and 1-7 ATS overall.

Cincinnati Bengals

Head Coach: Marvin Lewis

Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, Jason Campbell, AJ McCarron (Rookie Alabama), Matt Scott

With the Bengals being a consistent playoff team – Lewis doesn’t take these preseason games too seriously – however a strong trend has developed in the Bengals first home preseason game over the past four years – where the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread – so it sure looks like Lewis wants to win this first home game for the fans. The Bengals first home game this year is on Aug. 14 versus the Jets.

Baltimore Ravens
Head Coach: John Harbaugh

Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Keith Wenning (Rookie Ball State)

Here we have another team that has been effected with the new CBA rule changes – Harbaugh and the Ravens used to be a strong bet in the preseason as they mostly played low-scoring games making the UNDER the way to go. However with the less intense training camp routines now in place, the Ravens have seen the OVER go a money making 7-1 the past two preseasons. Strong trend to watch for again this year!!!

AFC South

Houston Texans
Head Coach: Bill O’Brien

Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Tom Savage (R Pittsburgh)

O’Brien’s offensive experience may help us make some money with the Texans this preseason – As I found that Houston as seen the OVER be the winning play in their first preseason game the last 4 years. Plus the Texans have seen the OVER go 6-2 the past two years. So let’s look for some high-scoring games form the Texans this preseason.

Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano

Quarterback Rotation: Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish

With Pagano as head coach, the Colts sure like to play a very wide-open game in their first preseason game of the year – as over the past two years a combined average of 52 points have been scored. And what a perfect opponent to open up with this year as the Jets, who have watched the OVER go 4-0 in their preseason games from a year ago. This year’s opening preseason game against the Jets will be played on Aug. 7.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach: Gus Bradley

Quarterback Rotation: Chad Henne, Blake Bortles (Rookie UCF), Ricky Stanzi, Stephen Morris (Rookie Miami)

The Jaguars have lost their dress rehearsal game in 2011 and 2012, and Gus Bradley sure continued this trend in his first year as head coach in 2013 as the Jaguars gave up 34 points against the Eagles in another double-digit loss. Let’s look for this strong trend to continue this season as Jacksonville pays a visit to Detroit on Aug. 22 for their dress rehearsal game. Plus, I have to add here that the Jaguars sure weren’t ready to play in their opening preseason game with Bradley as they were dominated at home against the Dolphins 27-3. Jacksonville’s first preseason game this year is on Aug. 8 against the Buccaneers (Tampa Bay is one of my strongest preseason plays as its a money making 6-2 ATS in its first preseason game) a perfect fit here against an underachieving Jaguars squad.

Tennessee Titans
Head Coach: Ken Whisenhunt

Quarterback Rotation: Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst, Tyler Wilson, Zach Mettenberger (Rookie LSU)

The Titans lost three of their four preseason games last season – this may be something to watch for again this year – as in his last year as the head coach of the Cardinals back in 2012, Whisenhunt went a perfect 0-4 against the spread. Plus Whisenhunt in his final two years as head coach in the preseason saw six of his last eight games go OVER the posted total.

AFC West

Denver Broncos
Head Coach: John Fox

Quarterback Rotation: Payton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert, Bryn Renner (Rookie North Carolina)

Strong trend has developed since John Fox has taken over as the head coach of the Broncos, as Denver has come out strong in their opening preseason game going a perfect 3-0 with all three wins as an underdog. This preseason the Broncos open up against the Super Bowl champions Seahawks – who may have the Super Bowl hangover coming into this preseason. Plus the opposite is sure true in the Broncos dress rehearsal game under Fox where Denver has failed to cover the spread in all three games. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 23 against Houston.

Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach: Andy Reid

Quarterback Rotation: Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray (Rookie Georgia)

Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 6-23 against the spread over the past seven years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not caring about these preseason games. Take a close look at the Chiefs first preseason game this year as Reid is 1-8 against the spread in his last nine opening preseason games in Philadelphia and Kansas City. Kansas City opens up this year at home against Cincinnati on Aug. 7.

Oakland Raiders
Head Coach: Dennis Allen

Quarterback Rotation: Matt Schaub, Derek Carr (Rookie Fresno State), Matt McGloin, Trent Edwards

Allen has continued the Raiders losing ways in the preseason already losing six of the Raiders eight preseason games with him calling the shots. Plus no matter whom the head coach is of Oakland they always seem to finish the preseason on a down note – as in the past seven years they are a perfect 0-7 against the spread in their last preseason game of the year. This year’s finale for the Raiders is on Aug. 28 against the Seahawks at home.

San Diego Chargers
Head Coach: Mike McCoy

Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Brad Sorensen

Now in his second season in San Diego, you can’t forget that Mike McCoy came from Denver where he was the offensive coordinator for the high powered Broncos offense. I’m curious to see what numbers the oddsmakers put up on the San Diego totals this preseason. As last preseason the Chargers under McCoy saw the OVER go 3-1. With McCoy’s offensive background watch for San Diego to continue their high scoring ways this preseason.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

 

[CNOTES]

Preseason Report - Coaches

July 25, 2014

Betting on the NFL preseason is one of the most profitable endeavors you can partake in this football season. The secret to making money in the preseason is the ability to know which coaches are trying to win and which coaches are just going through the motions. That factor in itself will give you a huge edge over the sportsbooks year after year.

Also, I can't say it enough but you also need to be familiar with the history of each team in August. Plus, keeping an eye out on each team's preseason quarterback rotations will also make you turn a nice profit in the preseason. Without further adieu, let's start handicapping!

As mentioned above coaching is key and you should be aware of this year's head coaching changes:

This season we have seven coaching changes coming into the 2014 season.

Here is this year’s list:

Cleveland Browns - Mike Pettine - Pettine joins the Browns after spending 2013 as the defensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills and the 2009-12 seasons as the defensive coordinator for the New York Jets.

Detroit Lions - Jim Caldwell - He was a head coach or coordinator in three Super Bowls with Indianapolis (XLI and XLIV) and Baltimore (XLVII) and won two Super Bowl titles (Indianapolis and Baltimore).

Houston Texans - Bill O’Brien comes in as the new head coach for the Texans – O’Brien was a member of the Patriots' coaching staff from 2007 where he rose from offensive assistant his first season to wide receivers coach in 2008 and then quarterbacks coach from 2009-10 prior to his promotion to offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach in 2011. He spent the last two year as the Penn State head coach.

Minnesota Vikings – Mike Zimmer takes over as the Vikings new head coach - A veteran defensive coordinator, Zimmer enters his 21st season on an NFL sideline, the past 14 working as defensive coordinator for Cincinnati (2008-13), Atlanta (2007) and Dallas (2000-06).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Lovie Smith is the new Tampa Bay head coach –Smith joins the Buccaneers after having spent nine seasons as the Chicago Bears head coach.

Tennessee Titans - Ken Whisenhunt is the new Tennessee head coach - Whisenhunt brings 17 seasons of NFL coaching experience to the Titans, including six years (2007-12) as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals.

Washington Redskins - Jay Gruden is the new Washington head coach – Gruden has been the Bengals offensive coordinator the past three seasons.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week One only five weeks away.........

-- Colts covered their last six games with Denver; I think the Broncos' QB used to play for Indy. Yes, yes he did.

-- Miami covered 11 of last 13 games when getting less than five points.

-- Ravens will be without Ray Rice in Weeks 1-2, but they have covered their last four games the week before playing rival Pittsburgh.

-- Cowboys covered six of last seven at home against the NFC West.

-- Lions covered five of last six when favored on Monday Night Football.

-- Arizona failed to cover its last four Monday night games.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 1 Lines and Bets

July 31, 2014

It's never too early to start thinking about football again! The opening lines for Week 1 of the NFL were released this week and while we're still a month away from kickoff, we've already got football on our brains. We're offering our thoughts and analysis on Week 1 betting lines below.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 2014

SEATTLE (-5) vs. Green Bay - Total: 45

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2014

ATLANTA (-2) vs. New Orleans - Total: 52
ST. LOUIS (-5) vs. Minnesota - Total: 46
PITTSBURGH (-5) vs. Cleveland - Total: 41
PHILADELPHIA (-11) vs. Jacksonville - Total: 52.5
NY JETS (-4.5) vs. Oakland - Total: 39.5
BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati - Total: 43.5
CHICAGO (-6.5) vs. Buffalo - Total: 49
HOUSTON (-2.5) vs. Washington - Total: 46.5
KANSAS CITY (-5.5) vs. Tennessee - Total: 44
MIAMI (+3.5) over New England - Total: 47
TAMPA BAY (+2.5) vs. Carolina - Total: 40.5
DALLAS (+3.5) vs. San Francisco - Total: 48.5
DENVER (-7) vs. Indianapolis - Total: 55.5

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2014

DETROIT (-4) vs. NY Giants - Total: 45.5
ARIZONA (-3.5) vs. San Diego - Total: 44.5

*Home teams in BOLD

FIRST THOUGHTS

Green Bay (+5) may be a strong play on the opening night of the season. The Packers were a playoff team last year despite playing without star quarterback Aaron Rodgers for half the season. Rodgers returned in Week 17 and GB won the NFC North and lost to San Francisco in the Wild Card round on a 49ers game-winning field goal as time expired. Green Bay is 5-2 SU & ATS in season-opening games with Rodgers at the helm and the defending Super Bowl champions are just 2-3 ATS in the opening game of the season, losing the last two games outright (NY Giants in 2012 & Baltimore in 2013). The last defending Super Bowl champion to win its season opener was the Green Bay Packers in 2011. This line may be a little too high.

Another line that may be too high is the Denver (-7) over Indianapolis. The Broncos went to the Super Bowl a season ago and this line may be inflated due to that fact alone. Indy is off of a strong year in which it won the AFC South and a playoff game. The Colts, behind stud quarterback Andrew Luck, are a young squad that is ever-improving. They were one of only three teams to beat the Broncos last year as they handed Denver its first loss of the season on Sunday Night Football on October 20th. They get another shot at the Broncos in primetime and this could be another closely contested game.

Philadelphia owns the highest opening week line (-11) at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Eagles had a lot of things go right for them in 2013 - a weak NFC East, Nick Foles throwing 27 TD and only 2 INT - and they finished the season 7-1 and notched a playoff berth (lost at home to New Orleans in the Wild Card round). Jacksonville closed out the season 4-4 after an 0-8 start. The Jags showed solid improvement under first year coach Gus Bradley and the arrow is definitely pointing up. They closed out the season on a 4-1 ATS run on the road while Philly was just 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS at home last season. This could be a solid situation for a play on the road underdog.

The lowest total in Week 1 is in the NY Jets-Oakland matchup at 39.5 points. Offensively it makes sense as the Jets averaged just 18.1 PPG (29th in the NFL) while the Raiders were just slightly better at 20.1 PPG (24th in the NFL) last season. However, neither of these teams were very strong defensively. The Jets were 19th in points allowed and the Raiders were 29th in points allowed. Who is going to stop the other?

- The OVER is 29-18-1 in Week 1 games over the last three seasons
- Week 1 double digit favorites are 4-6 ATS over the past eight seasons
- Week 1 Monday Night Football favorites are 6-10 ATS over the past eight seasons
- There is no discernible advantage to blindly betting underdogs in week one as the favorites have just a slight 65-62-1 ATS advantage over the past eight seasons

SOLID EARLY BETS

Arizona (-3.5) over San Diego
The Cardinals were 6-2 at home last season, losing only to Seattle and San Francisco, arguably the two best teams in the NFL in 2013. They had dominating wins over playoff squads Carolina (by 16 points) and Indianapolis (29 points) while adding solid wins over St. Louis (20 points) and Atlanta (14 points) for good measure. San Diego snuck into the playoffs with a 9-7 record last year after winning its final four games but could have a difficult time opening the season on the road here.

New Orleans (+2) over Atlanta
New Orleans won both meetings with Atlanta last year and is 8-2 SU against the Falcons since 2009. Atlanta endured a disastrous season in 2013 and while many tab the Falcons to be much improved in 2014, this is a tough way to kick off the season. The Saints ranked in the top five in both total offense and total defense last season. They won at Philadelphia in the Wild Card round and gave eventual Super Bowl champion Seattle a run for their money in the Divisional round. This is a solid underdog situation here.

UNDER 48.5 Dallas vs. San Francisco
The 49ers had just one game last year where the total was set higher than 48.5 (Week 11 at New Orleans). San Francisco allowed just 16.3 PPG over the final nine games of the season, including playoffs, and not one of those opponents exceeded 24 points. Dallas' defense was the worst in the NFL in yards allowed in 2013. They haven't done anything to improve that unit this offseason so it's a good bet that it'll be bad again. However, with San Francisco's run-heavy offense and solid defense, we don't expect that these two will be involved in a shootout.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC East Notebook

August 1, 2014


New England Patriots

2013 Record: 12-4
Postseason: Lost 26-16 to Denver in AFC Conference Championship
Off YPG: 384 (7th)
Def YPG: 373 (26th)
Points scored: 444 (3rd)
Points allowed: 338 (10th)

2014 Total Win Analysis: LVH Total Win Opening Line - 10.5

Hard not to look to the OVER 10.5 wins here with the Patriots. Only once in the 13 years they've had Tom Brady as the starting QB have the Patriots not reached double digit wins. The one time they did not reach at least 10 wins was back in 2002 when they finished the year 9-7. Since 2002, Brady & Company have won 14, 14, 10, 12, 16, 11, 10, 14, 13, 12 and 12 regular season games. We don't see any reason that changes this year. They should easily win the fairly weak AFC East again in 2014. The Pats have remarkably won 34 of their last 43 division games dominating their AFC East counterparts (Jets, Bills, and Fins). They have a fairly tough draw in non AFC East games facing the NFC North and AFC West. However, we have them currently favored in at least 13 games this year. They definitely need to shore up their rush defense (30th in the NFL) to be a serious contender, but with their potent offense and weak division, we have to take them OVER 10.5 wins.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 8-8, 9-7
-- Patriots & Jets have gone OVER the total 8 of the last 9 times they've faced each other. The two teams have topped 50 points in 5 of those 9 games and they've averaged 49.5 points during that stretch.
-- The OVER has cashed in at a rate of 33-15-1 the last 49 times the Patriots have been tabbed a home favorite.
-- Not a bad idea to take New England after a SU loss. The Pats are 36-6 SU and 30-12 ATS when coming off a loss.
-- Patriots have mopped up on the AFC East with a 40-27-1 ATS record in division play since 2003. That's the 3rd best ATS division record during that time behind only Pittsburgh & Green Bay.
-- New England has not been a play on team in the playoffs as of late. They are just 9-14 ATS in the NFL post-season since 2003.

Player & Team Notes

-- Since taking over as the starting QB early in the 2001 season, the Patriots are 148-43 in regular season games with Tom Brady under center.
-- Brady was only 16th in the NFL in QB Rating last year behind such names at Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, & Josh McCown.
-- New England is 34-9 SU their last 43 division games (Buffalo, NYJ, and Miami).
-- Pats opened as a 3.5 point favorite @ Miami in Week 1. The Fins (-2.5) beat New England 24-20 at home in last year.
-- The Patriots rush defense (30th in the NFL) gave up 100 or more yards to 13 of their 16 regular season opponents last year topped by Denver's whopping 280 rushing yards on November 24th.
-- New England has put up 20 or more points in 55 of their last 62 games (regular season & post-season included).
-- Patriots have been in the top 4 in the NFL in turnover margin for the last 4 seasons. They have had a + turnover margin for the last 8 years.

New York Jets

2013 Record: 8-8
Postseason: No playoffs
Off YPG: 318 (26th)
Def YPG: 335 (11th)
Points scored: 290 (29th)
Points allowed: 387 (19th)

2014 Total Win Analysis: LVH Total Win Opening Line - 7

We think the Jets will have a hard time topping 7 wins so we lean UNDER here. Despite finishing with 8 wins last season, we think the flyboys were overrated. They were -97 in point differential and were outgained by 17 YPG. Those aren't the numbers of a team that finished at .500. They are playing into a very tough schedule this season (9th toughest SOS) facing the NFC North & AFC West. They won most of their tight contests a year ago going 5-1 in games decided by a TD or less. On the flip side, when they lost, they lost big most of the time with 7 of their 8 losses coming by at least 10 points. That tells us this team was very close to having 5 or 6 wins rather than 8. QB Geno Smith struggled last year (25 turnovers and only 55% completions) and while we expect him to get better, we peg him as turnover prone again and average at best this year. The defense is decent but the offense is one of the worst in the NFL. We don't see the Jets getting back to 8-8 or better this season.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 9-6-1, 9-7
-- Jets & Patriots have gone OVER the total 8 of the last 9 times they've faced each other. The two teams have topped 50 points in 5 of those 9 games and they've averaged 49.5 points during that stretch.
-- Jets have been tabbed an underdog in 24 of their last 25 meetings with New England. Flyboys have won 7 of those games outright as a dog (lost 17 of them outright).
-- Jets are 19-5-2 ATS @ Miami dating back to 1988.
-- Jets are just 17-25-1 ATS the game following a SU loss.
-- NYJ are 13-5 ATS as a double digit dog dating back to 1992 - 4-0 ATS in that role the last 2 seasons.

Player & Team Notes

-- Jets added Michael Vick to the mix at QB in the off-season.
-- NY also added WR Eric Decker from Denver to try and give their QB, whoever it might be, some more weapons on the outside.
-- QB Geno Smith had the worst passer rating last season (66.5) of any eligible QB in the NFL (at least 224 attempts).
-- Smith also ranked 35th in pass completion percentage (55%) ahead of only Case Keenum and Brandon Weeden (at least 224 pass attempts).
-- Jets leading receiver last year, Jeremy Kerley, had just 43 receptions. To put that in perspective, 23 NFL teams had at least THREE players on their team that caught more than 43 passes - including 3 teams that had FIVE players catch more than 43 balls.
-- NYJ finished 6th in the NFL in rushing last year at 135 YPG. They added Titan RB Chris Johnson in the off-season in hopes to put a game breaker in the backfield. Johnson is coming off knee surgery and didn't participate in mini camps but should be full go by fall camp.

Buffalo Bills

2013 Record: 6-10
Postseason: No playoffs
Off YPG: 338 (20th)
Def YPG: 333 (10th)
Points scored: 21.1 (22nd)
Points allowed: 24.2 (20th)

2014 Total Win Analysis: LVH Total Win Opening Line - 6.5

We'd have to lean towards the OVER here. Last year the Bills suffered a midseason injury to rookie QB EJ Manuel. Despite playing in his first year, Manuel led Buffalo to a 2-2 record in his first four games with 5 TD and just 3 INT. Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel played in Manuel's place and combined for just 5 TD and 6 INT in seven games (2-5 record). Along with Manuel in his 2nd season, there's a lot to like about Buffalo this year. RB's Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are both back after leading the way for an offense that averaged 144 rush yards per game, good for 2nd in the league. Defensively the Bills have one of the top defensive lines and pass-defenses. They ranked 2nd in the NFL in sacks and 2nd in interceptions. They drafted arguably the top playmaker in the draft at No. 4 overall in wide receiver Sammy Watkins. They plan on running a more up-tempo offense and with dual threat Manuel under center getting the ball to Watkins & Spiller; they have the right pieces to make it work. Buffalo has the 14th toughest schedule in the NFL for 2014. Most of their non-division road games are manageable as Denver is the only road game against a playoff team from last year. They get Green Bay, Kansas City, and San Diego at home.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 8-8, 10-6
-- Ranked dead last in the NFL with a 12-19-1 ATS (38.7%) mark on the road since 2010
-- Just 24-32-2 ATS (42.9%) as an underdog since 2009 - ranked 29th in the NFL over that span
-- Best in the NFL with a 36-25-1 ATS record (59%) as a favorite since 2003
-- Home cooking: 5-1 last year as a home underdog and 6-2 ATS overall at home
-- The Bills are just 7-17-1 ATS vs. New England since 2000; 4-9-1 ATS at home and 3-8 ATS at NE
-- Buffalo is 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS the last nine games against the New York Jets
-- Unlike the poor trends against NY Jets & New England, Buffalo is a solid 13-7 ATS the last 20 games against Miami Dolphins

Player & Team Notes

-- Ranked 2nd in the NFL in sacks last year with three players recording double digit totals (Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes, and Kyle Williams)
-- Only Super Bowl Champion Seattle had more interceptions than Buffalo last year (Seattle had 28 while Buffalo had 23)
-- Expect Buffalo to continue to split carries with Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Neither topped 1,000 yards but Buffalo still had the 2nd best rush offense in the NFL with 144.2 rush yards per game
-- Rookie QB EJ Manuel had at least one touchdown pass in all but one game that he started last year (not counting the Cleveland game that he was injured in) but Buffalo still ranked 30th in touchdown passes
-- Rookie LB Kiko Alonso is the best playmaker on the defensive side of the ball and unfortunately, he's out for the season due to an ACL injury.
-- Hired former Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator
-- Traded leading receiver Stevie Johnson to the 49ers

Miami Dolphins

2013 Record: 8-8
Postseason: No playoffs
Off YPG: 313 (27th)
Def YPG: 361 (21st)
Points scored: 19.8 PPG (26th)
Points allowed: 20.9 PPG (8th)

2014 Total Win Analysis: LVH Total Win Opening Line - 8

The Dolphins had a season of ups and downs in 2013. They started 3-0 and then lost six of eight. They then won three in a row to get to 8-6 in prime position for a playoff berth before dropping the final two games against Buffalo and N.Y. Jets by a combined score of 7-39, narrowly missing out on a Wild Card spot. They expect to be better on both sides of the ball after finishing just 27th on offense and 26th on defense. Second-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill saw solid growth in his production last year with 3,913 yards (60.4 percent) with 24 TD. He'll have to work on limiting his turnovers as he had 17 INT last year. A good portion of blame can go to his offensive line, a unit that gave him sporadic protection a year ago and allowed him to be sacked an NFL-high 58 times last year. After the Jonathan Martin/Richie Incognito hazing scandal last year, Miami had to let both linemen go. They signed OT Branden Albert from Kansas City and drafted OT Jawuan James and OT Billy Turner to shore up interior offensive line issues. Miami has the 12th hardest strength of schedule rating heading into 2014 and it doesn't shape up well. Divisionally they get New England twice while New York and Buffalo figure to me much improved from last year. They face the NFC North this season and also have tough matchups against Baltimore, San Diego, and Denver. The Dolphins might be better that 2013 on paper, but how much better? Against that schedule it'll be difficult for Miami to exceed eight wins. We're leaning towards the UNDER on this one.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 9-7, 7-8-1
-- Miami is 13-6-2 ATS the last 21 home games (61.9%)
-- That includes a 5-1-1 ATS mark the last two years as a home 'dog (83.3%)
-- Miami rank 4th best in the NFL since 2010 with a 23-16-1 ATS record in non-division games
-- The Dolphins are 2nd best in the NFL since 2008 as a road underdog with a 24-14-1 ATS mark
-- Despite being generally solid at home, Miami is just 2-12-2 ATS at home vs. division-rival the Jets since 1998
-- They are also a poor 7-13 ATS the last 20 games vs. division-rival Buffalo

Player & Team Notes

-- Ranked 26th in the NFL with just 90 rush yards per game and 27th with just 8 rushing touchdowns.
-- Signed Knowshon Moreno to compete for starting RB job. Moreno, who rushed for 1,038 yards with Denver last year, also caught 60 passes for 548 yards
-- They ranked 20th against the pass last season, but they only allowed 17 passing touchdowns (3rd). They also intercepted 18 passes (10th) and had 42 sacks (11th)
-- Fired General Manager Jeff Ireland and named Dennis Hickey general manager (formerly part of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers front office)
-- Fired offensive coordinator Mike Sherman. Named former Philadelphia QB Coach Bill Lazor as his replacement
-- Signed Cortland Finnegan from St. Louis to compete for the no. 2 cornerback job opposite Brent Grimes

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

NFL preseason information to ponder, with exhibition games starting up........

-- Buffalo is 13-22 vs spread in last 35 games as a preseason favorite.

-- Browns covered last four Week 1 (or earlier) preseason games.

-- Ravens covered six of last seven Week 1 (or earlier) exhibitions.

-- Jets are 0-5 vs spread in last five Week 1 (or earlier) exhibitions.

-- Green Bay is 0-4 vs spread in last four Week 1 (or earlier) exhibitions.

-- Eagles are 1-8-1 vs spread in last ten Week 1 (or earlier) exhibitions.

 

[CNOTES]

Betting 101: Best ways to safely handicap the NFL preseason

So you want to bet NFL preseason football, do you?

Steering bettors away from the NFL’s unpredictable exhibition schedule is like trying to convince high school kids to wait until marriage, if you know what we mean. You aren’t going to convince them otherwise so you might as well preach about safe sex - or in this case safe betting habits.

We break down the best ways to handicap the NFL preseason slate and hope you don’t lose your shirt – and pants – by the time Week 1 rolls around:

Read everything

The great thing about the NFL preseason is that books and bettors are on the same level. Coaches don’t reveal their plans until usually the day before a game, and by that time odds have been up for a while. If you catch an online presser or read a quote from a coach spilling the beans on his starters’ playing time, you can quickly get down before the lines adjust.

Research is everything for preseason capping. Find out how many snaps the first teamers will get, what the focal point of the offseason is – offense or defense – and wager accordingly. Also, keep an eye on camp injuries or how veteran players are treating the tune-up games. Some star players go through the motions in August and ones limited by injuries won't risk going all out before the real games start.

A team that is trying to establish some momentum on the ground will likely run the ball a lot – therefore keeping the clock ticking and the final score Under the total. If a team is trying to fill roster spots in the secondary and is plugging in rookies and inexperienced player in its pass defense, than perhaps look at the other team to air it out and exploit those weaknesses.

QB depth

Much the way starting pitchers make up 90 percent of baseball handicapping, quarterbacks hold a similar value when betting on the preseason. It’s the most important position on the field and can single handedly make or break your bets.

Finding a team with depth at quarterback is the key for success during the exhibition schedule. The No. 1 passer will likely only take a handful of snaps in the first two games of the preseason, turning the offense over to the backups.

Look for teams with an experienced backup under center. Many clubs have veterans and former starters on the roster, guys who won’t be freaked out by the NFL’s big stage like rookie QBs and wet-behind-the-ears free agents. These vets can keep the chains moving and often excel against an opponent’s second and third-tier defense.

New coaches and schemes

The preseason is summer school for many NFL teams transitioning their playbook, whether that be with a new head coach, coordinator or just an overall flip in the way they do things.

New head coaches aren’t necessarily a red flag. They can often feel a little pressured to win in the preseason in order to impress the front office and fan base, which can give some teams added betting value. New coordinators, on the other hand, are working in different plays and schemes, which usually come with a learning curve.

Read up on how teams are adjusting to new systems and offenses, especially if there is a dramatic shift in gears, like speeding up with no-huddle attacks or going from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. When these teams take on established coaches, who have implemented their systems for a while, there can be value going against those new faces on the sideline.

Preseason lines

Come the regular season, the infamous 3-point spread is everywhere. And while a field-goal line is a key number in football betting, it loses some of its stature in the preseason.

Teams are more likely to go for a two-point conversion or try their luck on fourth-and-short in the preseason than play it safe. Not only do the games not matter, but a fourth down gamble or two-point attempt is an extra set for the offense as it works toward the regular season.

Depending on how those rolls of the dice play out, the final score can either be closer than three points or well over it. It’s rare to see a preseason spread of more than three points with most bouncing between 1-2.5 points.

Week to week

For those looking to bet the closest facsimile of Week 1 action during the preseason, you may want to pass on the first two weeks of exhibitions and save your marbles for Week 3. That’s when starting players tend to log the most time, working the majority of the first half and sometimes into the third quarter.

Week 1 and 2 often has first teams playing limited snaps – depending on the team’s situation – and Week 4 is pretty much a craps shoot. Coaches are making their final cuts, players are fighting to stay on the roster, and the coordinators are tightening the final nuts and bolts of their playbooks.

For those bettors who like a challenge, Week 4 of the preseason could be the trickiest week of the entire NFL schedule – preseason, regular season and playoffs – to wager on.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Buffalo vs. NY Giants
The Bills and Giants open up the preseason schedule this Sunday as the two teams meet in the Hall of Fame Game. New York is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, AUGUST 3

Game 241-242: Buffalo vs. NY Giants (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 114.705; NY Giants 115.599
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 30
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 33
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Under


NFL Hall of Fame Game betting preview: Bills vs. Giants

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants (+3, 34)

Football bettors rejoice as the NFL returns with the annual Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio Sunday. The Buffalo Bills and New York Giants face off in a battle of two New York franchises looking to get their seasons off on the right foot in their first preseason action after both missing the playoffs in 2013.

New York missed the postseason during Eli Manning's worst year since winning his second Super Bowl, while the Bills dealt with injuries to quarterback E.J. Manuel as well as running back C.J. Spiller during another disappointing year. But don't expect the star players to carry much of a workload during a game that is famous for first-team offenses and defenses taking as little snaps as possible.

TV: NBC 8 p.m. ET

LINE HISTORY: Various sportsbooks opened the line between Bills -1 and -2.5 before it has reached -3 heading into the weekend. The total opened as low as 32.5 and is up to 34 points at some markets.

INJURY REPORT: Bills - DT M. Dareus (Ques, Disciplinary), LB N. Bradham (Out, Suspension). Giants - T W. Beatty (Ques, Leg), CB J.Hosey (Out, Suspension).

CAPPING THE QBS:

Thanks to Manuel's injury-plagued 2013 the Buffalo Bills may have the edge at QB in this game as backups Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel both have game experience from the 2013 NFL season once the Bills go to their bench Sunday.

Thad Lewis was 3-2 ATS and 2-3 SU as a starter for the Bills in 2013, throwing for 1,092 yards and four touchdowns while managing to just throw three interceptions during five starts. Lewis also added 52 yards rushing and a touchdown on the ground and best matches Manuel's dual-threat ability as a playmaker who earned wins over the Dolphins on two occasions in 2013.

Meanwhile, Jeff Tuel started twice for the Bills, costing bettors money both times in losses against Cleveland and Kansas City. Tuel passed for 309 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Reports indicate that despite his struggles Tuel may be in line for the No. 2 job over the more productive Lewis. The Bills also have former Oregon quarterback Dennis Dixon as a fourth QB. Dixon was a 2008 fifth-round selection from the Pittsburgh Steelers.

As for the Giants, quarterback options are not as plentiful behind Eli Manning. The Giants have two low-quality backups behind their two-time Super Bowl winner as veteran relief option Curtis Painter and 2013 midround pick Ryan Nassib will get the bulk of Sunday's snaps.

Painter has experience during his time in Indianapolis. In 2011, when Peyton Manning was out for the season, the lifer backup stepped in to make eight starts. Nassib is just off finishing a career at Syracuse where he threw for 9,000-plus yards as well as 70 touchdowns during three seasons as a starter for the Orange.

If the Giants want to match the Bills' advantage at quarterback depth in this preseason battle they will need a big game from their younger backup in Nassib, who is looking to supplant Painter for the No. 2 role this August.

ABOUT THE BILLS: Rookie Sammy Watkins' debut will be the highlight for casual fans during the Hall of Fame Game. Watkins dominated at Clemson, most famously during its Orange Bowl victory over Ohio State, to become the first wideout taken in the 2014 NFL Draft with the fourth overall pick. Trading up to select Watkins, Bills fans are hoping to see some early flashes of potential to become one of the best wideouts in the league.

According to reports, seventh-round offensive linemen Seantrel Henderson has been a revelation during Bills training camp. Starting camp the earliest out of the NFL franchises, reports surrounding the former top high school prospect out of the University of Miami have been positive as the Hurricanes pass blocker was never short on talent and only dropped to the last round due to character issues. Expect Henderson to get plenty of snaps in the trenches for the Bills as they look to test their rookie.

ABOUT THE GIANTS: New York typically struggles in preseason action as it rests quarterback Eli Manning, going 1-3 ATS in 2013. Following Manning's struggles in the regular season last year, it will be interesting to see how many drives head coach Tom Coughlin gives Manning. The quarterback told the media that while Coughlin has yet to announce if his first teamers would play, he is confident he and the starter will gets some reps Sunday night.

"We have five (preseason games)," Manning told reporters. "Whatever coach wants to do. I wouldn't mind trying to get in a rhythm, get in a couple series and see if we can get some rhythm with that first group."

Running the football was a problem for the Giants in 2013, a problem that the team addressed by bringing in Oakland Raiders rusher Rashad Jennings and drafting Boston College workhorse Andre Williams to join former Madden cover athlete Peyton Hillis in the backfield. Jennings rushed for 733 yards and six touchdowns in Oakland last year while Williams shined for Boston College as a physical, downhill runner that matches the presence the veteran Hillis brings. Expect plenty of runs down the middle for New York once Manning leaves the game Sunday, as Coughlin tries to build confidence in not only the running backs, but also in the offensive line.

While the Bills drafted Sammy Watkins in the first round, the Giants added a talented wideout of their own in Odell Beckham Jr. Fans are excited to see "ODB" play, but the former LSU star will be likely sitting out of Sunday's clash with a hamstring injury. Luckily for the Giants, the team has four more preseason games.

TRENDS:

Dallas bucked the trend in 2013 by winning as an underdog as well as helping the game go Over the total in a 24-20 win over the Dolphins. Favorites are 9-7 SU and 7-7-2 ATS since 1996 after the Cowboys won straight up as underdogs in 2013.

The last 16 Hall of Fame Game meetings have produced a perfect 8-8 Over/Under split, but the game saw its highest score since 2008 when the Dolphins and Cowboys combined for 44 points in a 24-20 final last year.

Buffalo is 0-3 in Hall of Fame Games, losing most recently to the Tennessee Titans in 2009. New York is 1-1 in the HoF Game, beating down the Texans 34-17 in 2002 in its most recent performance in the preseason contest.

* Eight of the last 10 Hall of Fame Games have played Over with a total of 35 or less points.
* NFC teams are 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS versus AFC teams in contests in Canton.
* Bills are 1-5 SU in their opening preseason games the last six years
* Bills are 1-11 SU and 1-10-1 ATS last 12 versus NFC preseason foes.
* Giants are 18-5 SU and 16-7 ATS in preseason openers versus AFC opponents, including 11-1 SU and ATS as pick or dogs.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of bets are on Bills -3 while 50 percent of total wagers are on Over 33.5.

 

[CNOTES]

HOF Notes - Giants vs. Bills

August 2, 2014


Buffalo Bills

Head Coach: Doug Marrone
Quarterback Rotation: E.J. Manuel, Jeff Tuel, Dennis Dixon, Thad Lewis

Doug Marrone enters his second season as Buffalo’s head coach. He’s been in the NFL for seven years, from 2006-08 he served as the offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints after a four-year span as the offensive line coach of the New York Jets (2002-05). With this being only Doug Marrone’s second year as a Head Coach: we don’t have much to go on for his preseason trends – however I’ve isolated something that may give us a solid play for the Bills this preseason. Since he's still a fairly new head coach, I can see Marrone wanting to put out a solid effort as the Bills put together a 2-2 SU/ATS record in his first preseason in 2013, which includes a 44-20 blowout of the Colts in the exhibition opener last August.

New York Giants

Head Coach: Tom Coughlin
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib, Curtis Painter

A solid money-making trend has shown up for the Giants as of late as Tom Coughlin in the past four years has seemed to put no effort in the Giants dress rehearsal game as the Giants are 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 22 against the Jets. The Giants captured their preseason opener in 2013 over the Steelers, 18-13 as 2.5-point road underdogs, but lost their final three exhibition contests. New York owns a solid 4-1 ATS record in preseason openers since 2009, while the 'over' went 3-2 in those games.

Hall of Fame Game History & Trends

Recent Trends

-- The Giants have gone 2-2 all-time in the Hall of Fame game with their last appearance coming in 2002 when they defeated the Texans 34-17.

-- The Bills have gone 0-3 in their three HOF game appearances.

-- The margin of victory has been by more than three points in six of the last seven HOF games.

-- The 'over' has gone 2-1 in the last three HOF games.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday, August 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Buffalo - 8:00 PM ET Buffalo -3 500 *****

N.Y. Giants - Over 35.5 500 *****

 

[CNOTES]

HALL OF FAME GAME NUMBERS

8:00 EST TV: NBC | MOSTLY CLOUDY, NORTHWEST WIND 4-9. KICKOFF TEMP 74

Bills opened a 2 point favorite, have moved as high as 3, currently 2 1/2.
The Total opened 32 1/2, the books took early money on the over, currently 34.

QUARTER BACK ROTATIONS

Giants - Eli Manning, Curtis Painter, Ryan Nassib

Tills - E. J. Manuel, Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel, Dennis Dixon

COACH'S PRESEASON HISTORY

Giants Tom Coughlin 36-33-3 ATS 27 Over 29 Under

Bills Doug Marrone 1-2-1 ATS 2 Over 2 under
--------------------------------------------------------


COACH'S PRESEASON FOOTBALL RECORDS

Many preseason NFL handicappers put a lot of weight on a Coach's
preseason history, both straight-up and against the spread.
Here are the Won-Loss Records and Over Under records
going into the 2014 preseason

TEAM COACH SU ATS O/U

AZ - Bruce Arians 3-1 3-1 1-3

ATL - Mike Smith 7-17 9-13-2 11-12-1

BAL - John Harbaugh 15-9 13-11 12-12

BUF - Doug Marrone 2-2 1-2-1 2-2 0

CAR - Ron Rivera 6-6 7-5 6-6

CHI - Marc Trestman 2-2 1-3 3-1

CIN - Marvin Lewis 23-22 23-22 23-22

DAL - Jason Garrett 7-6 5-8 6-7

DEN - John Fox 25-23 21-26-1 26-21-1

DET - Jim Caldwell 2-10 4-8 8-4 1

GB - Mike McCarthy 15-17 15-17 21-11

IND - Chuck Pagano 4-4 5-3 4-4

JAC - Gus Bradley 1-3 1-3 2-2

KC - Andy Reid 27-33 27-30-3 33-25

MIA - Joe Philbin 2-7 1-8 5-4

NE - Bill Belichick 42-35 38-33-6 29-27-1

NO - Sean Payton 16-13 18-11 14-12-3

NYG - Tom Coughlin 38-35 36-33-4 27-29*

NYJ - Rex Ryan 9-11 10-10 14-6

OAK - Dennis Allen 2-6 3-5 5-3

PHI - Chip Kelly 2-2 2-2 3-1

PIT - Mike Tomlin 19-10 14-14-1 11-17-1

STL - Jeff Fisher 37-35 36-34-2 34-23*

SD - Mike McCoy 1-3 2-2 3-1 2-0

SF - Jim Harbaugh 8-4 8-4 4-7-1

SEA - Pete Carroll 21-12 23-9-1 13-7

TB - Lovie Smith 19-18 18-18-1 20-17

TEN - Ken Whisenhunt 8-17 8-16-1 13-12

 

[ck333]

thanks for posting this stuff CNOTES, got all the basic stuff in one thread, which is great

 

[CNOTES]

NFC East Outlook

August 4, 2014


Division Winner

Over the past five years, each team in this historically hyper competitive division has claimed an NFC East title. Philadelphia is the only team to win multiple times in that span, a statement that should remain true this time next year. While fans of the other three franchises can cry themselves to sleep by reminding themselves that the Eagles are the only one of this foursome without a Super Bowl, the fact is that they're the only ones that don't carry massive question marks into this season. Even with DeSean Jackson plotting vengeance in D.C., growing pains are likely to weigh down Washington. New York and Dallas have hovered around, or in the Cowboys case, exactly, at .500 for three years running. Don't put it past either team to regress further.

Projected order of finish

1) Philadelphia
2) Washington
3) N.Y. Giants
4) Dallas

Go over with

The Eagles have a year under their belt in Chip Kelly's system, which is going to help him get his message across fasted and more efficiently, ultimately leading to steady improvement. Brevity has always been a key for Kelly, who loves concise practices as much as he does up-tempo offense. With the continuity provided by Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy, not to mention an expected boost from the arrival of Darren Sproles and return of Jeremy Maclin, "Fly, Eagles Fly" will be heard frequently at Lincoln Financial Field. Sportsbook.ag has their projected win total at 9, so it's certainly worth banking that Philadelphia soars over that, either matching or surpassing last year's 10-6 mark.

Go under with

After three consecutive 8-8 finishes, oddsmakers had an easy decision with what to project for Dallas, especially since owner/GM Jerry Jones kept head coach Jason Garrett and his staff in place while not really upgrading the roster. Coming off a season where the defense was often an abomination, the Cowboys cut franchise all-time sack leader DeMarcus Ware and watched star middle linebacker Sean Lee tear his ACL in late May. Former No. 6 pick Morris Claiborne is hobbling around with a sore knee, while quarterback Tony Romo is still pacing himself following back surgery last December. There would be nothing shameful about another 8-8 finish given all the obstacles, but I don't see the Cowboys as a .500 team.

Games to Watch - September

Sept. 7 - Washington at Houston: The Jay Gruden era begins in muggy H-town, where Robert Griffin III is sure to have his share of support against a Texans team eager to put last season's disaster in the rear view mirror. There are no must-wins in Week 1, but getting off on the right foot would sure take some pressure off Gruden or fellow newbie Bill O'Brien.

Sept. 7 - San Francisco at Dallas: Two of the NFL's elite franchise will show faithful Cowboys fans exactly where both currently in a game sure to feature plenty of a grimacing Jones clasping his hands.

Sept. 8 - N.Y. Giants at Detroit: Eli Manning showcases his early command of New York's newly installed West Coast offense against a front four whose pressure he'll be wise to avoid. Factor in a road environment in the season's first Monday night matchup and you get a challenging first test.

Sept. 14 - Arizona at N.Y. Giants: Now mix in a short week of preparation for a talented Cardinals secondary and it's clear that Manning will need plenty of early help from playmakers like Reuben Randle and rookies Odell Beckham and Andre Williams.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC West Notebook

August 4, 2014


Denver Broncos

2013 record: 13-3
Postseason: Lost to Seattle 43-8 in Super Bowl
Off YPG: 457 (1st) - Def YPG: 356 (19th)
Off PPG: 37.9 (1st) - Def PPG: 24.9 (22nd)

2014 Total Win Analysis - LVH Total Win Opening Line - 11

We’ll lean toward the UNDER here. Denver has the 2nd toughest strength of schedule in the NFL this year just behind Oakland. The Broncos opponents this year won over 57% of their games last season. Their early season slate is brutal as six of their first their opponents are teams that were in the playoffs last year (Indy, KC, Seattle, New England, San Diego, & San Francisco). Their other two games during the opening half of the season are @ NYJ (long travel) and vs. Arizona who was 10-6 last year. Their road games outside of the AFC West include @ New England, @ Cincinnati, @ Seattle, and @NY Jets. Not easy to say the least. A lot of things went right for Denver last year. An aging Peyton Manning had a career year that was without injury. He lost two key cogs to that offense as RB Moreno & WR Decker have moved on. The defense was not good a year ago. They finished in the bottom third of the league in YPG allowed and PPG allowed. This team needs to score a pile of points to win games and we’re not so sure they’ll be able to do so at such a high rate (almost 40 PPG last year). This is a playoff team but we think they’ll really struggle to get near last year’s win total.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 10-5-1, 11-5
-- If you take out last year’s 10-5-1 ATS mark, the Broncos have been one of the worst ATS teams with a record of 73-91-7 (44%) from 2003-2012.
-- Last year Denver was 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite but from 2003-2012 they were just 22-39-3 ATS (36%) in that role.
-- Dating back to 1982, Denver is 26-19 ATS (58%) coming off a bye. They have also played 28 OVERS and 17 UNDERS when coming off a bye week.
-- Broncos have faced AFC West rival Chargers 69 times since 1980. During the stretch the two have played to the UNDER 40 times, the OVER just 28 times with 1 push.
-- After starting the season going OVER the total in 10 of their first 12 games, the Broncos went UNDER the number 5 of their last 6 games (including playoffs).

Player & Team Notes

-- The oddsmakers set the Denver total at 50 or higher in 14 of their 16 regular season games last year. The other two were both set at 49.
-- Denver loses key offensive players RB Moreno (1,038 rushing yards) and WR Decker (1,288 receiving yards). They did pick up DB Aqib Talib from New England which will really help in pass coverage (25th in YPG passing allowed last year) if he can stay healthy along with DeMarcus Ware from Dallas who should bolster the pass rush. Von Miller's return on the left side of the defense could have the biggest impact though for the Broncos.
-- Denver led the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage last year (48%) AND 4th down conversion percentage (90%).
-- The Broncos led the NFL in YPG (457) topping 2nd place Philadelphia by almost 50 YPG. Denver also led the league averaging 6.3 yards per play.

San Diego Chargers

2013 record: 9-7
Postseason: Lost to Denver 24-17 in Divisional Round of playoffs
Off YPG: 393 (5th) - Def YPG: 366 (23rd)
Off PPG: 24.8 (12th) - Def PPG: 21.8 (11th)

2014 Total Win Analysis: LVH Total Win Opening Line - 7.5
Chargers finished last year with 9 regular season wins and the oddsmakers set this year’s number at 7.5. We’ll lean ever so slightly to the UNDER here. Despite giving up just 21 PPG last year, San Diego’s defense was a bit sketchy last year. They finished near the bottom of the league in YPG allowed and YPP allowed. Thus, in our opinion, they were a bit lucky to only allow 21 PPG. Their offense was very solid a year ago. They should be good again this year but the loss of OC Whisenhunt will be a key factor. He was known for his passing game prowess and QB Rivers had possibly his best overall year of his career under Whisenhunt, who has moved on to Tennessee. The Bolts have a very tough schedule this year. Their strength of schedule ranks the 4th toughest in the NFL with their opponents this year winning nearly 57% of their games last year. The AFC West will again be tough with Denver & KC (both in playoffs last year) and the Chargers must play what many consider the toughest conference in the NFL, the NFC West (Seattle, San Fran, Arizona, and an improved St. Louis). They will be an underdog in their first two games @ Arizona and at home against Seattle before a fairly easy 4 game stretch (Buffalo, Jacksonville, NYJ, and Oakland). However from that point on, the Chargers have a brutal slate facing the likes of KC (twice), Denver (twice), @ Miami, @ Baltimore, New England, and @ San Francisco.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 9-6-1 ATS, 7-9
-- Since 2004, the Chargers have THE BEST spread record in the NFL at 93-70-7 (57%).
-- They also have the best spread record in the NFL as a road underdog since 2004 hitting at a whopping 70% (28-12-4 ATS)
-- However, when you make the Bolts a road favorite, they are just 7-16 ATS dating back to 2008.
-- San Diego also sits on the best spread record in the NFL in Division games (since 2004). Their ATS mark against AFC West opponents during that span in 34-22-5.
-- AFC rivals San Diego & Oakland have gone UNDER the total in 13 of their last 19 meetings.

Player & Team Notes

-- San Diego lost a key member of their coaching staff when OC Ken Whisenhunt left to take the head coaching job at Tennessee. He guided QB Phillip Rivers to one of his best years ever last season.
-- Look for the Chargers to run more of an up-tempo, no-huddle offense this year under their new OC Frank Reich.
-- San Diego was 5th in the NFL in Red Zone Scoring opportunities per game at 3.7, but they were just 23rd in the NFL in Red Zone TD scoring percentage at 51%.
-- Chargers are very solid on the offensive line where they bring back all 5 starters from 2013 + 3 backups who have decent starting experience.
-- The Charger defense finished 9th in the NFL in PPG last year allowing just over 21. However, they were near the bottom (28th) in defensive yards per play and (23rd) in defensive yards per game.

Oakland Raiders

2013 Record: 4-12
Postseason: No Playoffs
Off YPG: 334 (23rd) - Def YPG: 364 (22nd)
Off PPG: 20.1 (24th) - Def PPG: 28.3 (29th)

2014 Total Win Analysis: LVH Total Win Opening Line - 5

We lean towards the UNDER here. Oakland really struggled last season, losing eight of its final nine games to limp to a 4-12 record. They made some moves in free agency & the draft, but there are still major questions hounding this team - particularly at quarterback and offensive line. The team lost its best offensive lineman, Jared Veldheer, from a year ago and this unit that struggled a year ago actually got downgraded in the offseason. They also traded away QB Terrelle Pryor and signed Matt Schaub from the Texans. Schaub really struggled last year and was benched in week six. He finished with 10 TD and 14 INT in 10 games. Schaub has been a solid game-managing quarterback in the past, but it's hard to ignore last year's statistics and trust that he will be reliable in a Raiders uniform in 2014. There's also the fact that Oakland has the no. 1 toughest schedule in the NFL, and there's not a lot of reason for optimism here. On top of playing six games against three division foes that made the playoffs in 2013, the Raiders travel to New England, Seattle, and St. Louis while getting Arizona and San Francisco at home. The Raiders will be more recognizable this year after picking up some big names in free agency (more on that below), but we expect another season of turmoil in Oakland.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 7-8-1, 7-8-1
-- There aren't too many trends that favor the Raiders. They are just 29-58-1 ATS at home since 2003 (33.3%) - worst in the NFL
-- Oakland is 10-28 ATS as a favorite since 2003 (26.3%) - worst in the NFL by a wide margin (Miami is 31st, covering 37.9%)
-- Also just 59-74-3 ATS as an underdog since 2003 (44.4%), 2nd to last in the NFL over that span
-- Just 16-27-1 ATS vs. NFC squads since 2003 (37.2%), the worst mark in the NFL. This year they catch the NFC West, arguably the best division in the league
-- The Raiders have been a road favorite an NFL-low four times since 2003 (0-4 ATS in those games)
-- Just 1-5 SU & ATS vs. division foes last season with a -13.5 PPG differential in those six games
-- Just 2-9 SU & 3-8 ATS in the last nine home games against Denver. They've failed to cover each of the past two seasons at home as a double digit underdog
-- Oakland and Kansas City have gone 14-3-1 UNDER in the last 18 meetings. Oakland and San Diego are 13-6 UNDER in the last 19 meetings -- The Raiders are a respectable 7-3 ATS against San Diego in the last 10 meetings

Player & Team Notes

-- Lost standout defensive lineman Lamarr Houston in free agency but replaced him by signing LaMarr Woodley (via Pittsburgh), Justin Tuck (via NYG), and Antonio Smith (via Houston) to fill the void.
-- Allowed 33 pass TD (30th in the NFL) intercepted just nine passes on defense last year (31st). Resigned DB Charles Woodson and brought in CB's Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown - both formerly played for the 49ers - to shore up the NFL's 28th ranked pass defense.
-- Lost leading rusher Rashad Jennings in free agency, but re-signed oft-injured Darren McFadden and brought in Maurice Jones-Drew from Jacksonville.
-- Signed veteran WR James Jones via Green Bay to liven up a receiving corps that was led by Rod Streater with 60 receptions a year ago. Jones has 24 TD receptions over the past three seasons and will be the top WR on the roster.
-- Ranked 29th in 2013 with just 17 pass TD. Schaub will have to improve on that number otherwise coaches will call on rookie Derek Carr (50 pass TD at Fresno State last year) as a replacement.
-- Drafted LB Khalil Mack with the 5th overall pick in the draft. Mack is viewed as the most impact-ready rookies and he will, at the very least, add a punch to the front seven that hasn't been there in recent years.

Kansas City Chiefs

2013 Record: 11-5
Postseason: Lost in Wild Card round to Indianapolis
Off YPG: 337 (21st) - Def YPG: 368 (24th)
Off PPG: 26.9 (7th) - Def PPG: 19.1 (6th)

2014 Total Win Analysis: LVH Total Win Opening Line - 8

Kansas City overachieved last year by winning 11 games when it was projected to finish under .500 (total win opening line last year was 7). At one point, KC was 9-0 with the best record in the NFL. They limped to a 2-5 finish and lost their first playoff game in embarrassing fashion (blew a 38-10 3rd quarter lead at Indianapolis and lost 44-45). The Chiefs had a lot of things go their way in 2013 and we don't expect that to be the case here in 2014; take the UNDER. Before the 2013 season, KC had the 26th strongest schedule in the NFL. After the season concluded, KC actually had the easiest schedule in the NFL. That will change this year as the Chiefs have the 7th toughest schedule. They have to face Denver and San Diego, two 2013 playoff teams, twice in division play. They also have tough conference games against New England, Miami, and Pittsburgh while also drawing the NFC East in non-conference play - meaning Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, and St. Louis are all on the docket. They also didn't do enough in the offseason to make us believe that they actually improved. With a difficult schedule and an average offense and defense, expect KC to struggle and fail to finish over .500.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 9-7, 7-9
-- Further evidence to its weak schedule, Kansas City was 5-1 ATS as an away favorite last year
-- The Chiefs are an NFL-best 14-6 ATS (70%) in non-conference games
-- In division games, the Chiefs are just 11-19 ATS (36.7%) since 2009, 2nd worst in the NFL
-- The Chiefs have finished UNDER the total in 25 of the last 41 home games, or 64.1% of their games - the highest UNDER percentage in the NFL since 2009
-- As a road team, KC is 3rd in the NFL since 2007 with a 34-23 ATS record (59.6%)
-- The Chiefs haven't had a ton of luck visiting Mile High Stadium. They are 2-11 SU & 4-9 ATS the last 13 games at Denver, with an average point differential of -12.6 PPG.
-- KC is just 1-6 SU & ATS in the last seven home games against Oakland

Player & Team Notes

-- RB Jamaal Charles ranked 3rd in the NFL in rushing, amassing 1,287 yards (5.0 YPC) and an NFL-high 12 TD. He was also 3rd in the NFL in total yards - adding 693 receiving yards.
-- Behind Charles, KC had one of the top rushing attacks in the league last year. But that unit will take a hit after losing three starters from the offensive line (OT Branden Albert, OG's Geoff Schwartz and Jon Asamoah).
-- Drafted DE Dee Ford with the 23rd pick in the first round of the NFL Draft. Ford is a pass-rush specialist who will add to the arsenal behind Justin Houston (11 sacks) and Tamba Hali (11 sacks).
-- QB Alex Smith completed 60.6% last year with 23 TD and only 7 INT. Respectable numbers, but KC hardly lit things up through the air. The Chiefs ranked 24th in pass yards and 27th in yards per attempt.
-- Smith helped KC keep its turnover numbers down, leading to a +19 TO differential - 2nd in the NFL only to SB champion Seattle.
-- The Chiefs led the NFL 11 non-offensive touchdowns. They scored seven defensive TD (5 INT returns & 2 fumble returns), two kickoff return TD, and two punt return TD.

 

[ck333]

and may I add some interesting thoughts and angles for each team, thanks for the work you put into this

 

[CNOTES]

Your welcome CK333.............its good to have some idea as to what's going on before you blow your hard earned money on some games.....good luck to you and all you out there......cheersgif

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: NFL knowledge for a Tuesday........

13) Houston Texans lost nine games LY by 7 or less points; they never won another game after a 2-0 start. With a new coach/new QB this year, Houston is currently favored in four of its first six games and is expected to bounce back big-time in 2014.

12) New England was 0-4 as a road favorite LY, after being 33-18-2 from 2004-12; they’ve been plus in turnovers eight years in a row and are +79 in turnovers over last four regular seasons, thanks to having an all-time great QB. Over last decade, Patriots are 16-7-1 vs spread as an underdog.

11) Bengals signed Andy Dalton to six-year, $115M contract last weekend; over last four years, Cincy is 22-10 vs spread in game following a wiu, 11-14-4 following a loss. Bengals are 30-18 SU the last three years, an excellent stretch, but pressure is on to win a playoff game or two this year.

10) Yards per point tracks how opportunistic teams are; the lower the better. Denver ranked #1/#2 in NFL in this important stat the last two years, after ranking #21/#23 in the two years before Peyton Manning came to town. Chiefs improved from #27 to #2 in defensive YPP in Andy Reid’s first season in Kansas City LY.

9) Speaking of the Chiefs, they were +18 in turnovers LY after being -24 the year before, a humongous improvement that resulted them improving in wins from 2 to 11- they also improved in sacks from 27 to 47. Normally there is regression after such a huge improvement; will be interesting to track the Chiefs this year.

8) Andy Reid’s old team, the Eagles were -14/-24 in turnovers in Reid’s last two years there but improved to +12 LY and also led the NFL in rushing yards, which is why they won a lot more game in Chip Kelly’s first season.

Sometimes change is good. One thing that still needs to change; over last four years, Iggles are 9-23 at home against the spread.

7) Patriots (21) have most returning starters back from LY, followed by Eagles and Chargers, both with 20.

6) NFC East and NFC South have both had three different champs the last three years; Packers-Patriots-Broncos have all won their divisions each of last three years.

5) In Rex Ryan’s first two years as Jets’ coach, they were 20-12, going +1/+9 in turnovers; they were -3 in their 8-8 season in 2011, then regressed to an awful -14/-14 the last two years, when they went 14-18. LY could be explained away by having a rookie QB playing most of the time, but if Ryan wants a 7th year wearing Jets’ green, he needs to get that turnover ratio back in the black.

4) Giants allowed only 20 sacks in 2012, despite having an immobile Manning at QB; that number doubled LY, their turnover ratio went from +14 to -15 in a hideous season that cost OC Kevin Gilbride his job (you really think the guy retired??? Really?) New OC McAdoo will get Big Blue playing faster and throwing safer passes, to increase Eli’s completion percentage while reducing his sacks/turnovers.

3) Over last decade, Miami Dolphins are 14-35 vs spread when favored, though they are a decent 7-7 as home favorites the last three years. Fish have been minus in turnovers five years in a row, allowed 58 sacks LY in a bizarre season where almost the entire OL turned over during the year. Their chemistry has to be better this year, you just wonder if Tannehill is the right QB for the job; after watching Hard Knocks last summer, I wondered why they liked the guy so much. Friend of mine knows and likes Joe Philbin so we wish him well; this is a pivotal year for him

2) Buffalo Bills haven’t been to the playoffs since 1999; they haven’t been favored in an AFC East road game since 2008. Bills are 5-15-1 vs spread as a road dog the last three years, are 10-18 in last 28 games as a non-divisional road dog.

Is EJ Manuel the QB to make them a contender? You have to love their receivers, but receivers don’t help much without a solid passer getting them the ball.

1) Dallas Cowboys finished 8-8 last three years in a row; LY was first time in eight years they finished outside the top 10 in passing yardage (#14). Turnover ratio does not seem to matter as much with Dallas- they go 8-8 no matter what their ratio is, but they allowed 415 yards per game LY, worst in NFL- they’ve been #27/#22 against the run the last two years. Unless they shore those numbers up, its going to be another mediocre-at-best autumn for America’s Team.

 

[CNOTES]

Three NFL hot-seat coaches who must win in the preseason

Some NFL coaches care about preseason football and some don’t. But that doesn’t mean they don’t want to win. Where the real betting value lies is finding the guys who need to win.

It seems silly to think anyone needs to win in the preseason, but these three head coaches must kick start a winning atmosphere in order to cool their seats off before the real season starts.

Joe Philbin, Miami Dolphins

According to CoachesHotSeat.com, no head coach in the NFL has a hotter chair than Philbin, who went 8-8 SU and 9-7 ATS in his second season in South Beach. The Dolphins’ locker room was about as welcoming as the gals on “Orange Is The New Black” and he did very little to curb that culture. On top of that, the Dolphins are 3-6 SU and just 1-8 ATS in the preseason under Philbin.

But nothing cures a poison franchise like winning. Even small doses of victory – say like a strong preseason – can quickly put recent failures in the rearview. Miami needs a little more than a successful warmup season to erase the mess Philbin made last year, but it’s a start.

Dennis Allen, Oakland Raiders

Even though Al Davis is in a better place now – or maybe not, who knows? – the ax can fall just as quick in Oakland. Allen has defied the franchise’s recent history and made it through two full seasons with his job intact. But back-to-back 4-12 years (12-19-1 ATS) provides about as much job security as sleeping with the boss' daughter.

The Raiders can’t decide whether they want to win now or rebuild, adding veterans like Matt Schaub and Maurice Jones-Drew to help get them through the year. There is no set business plan for the Silver and Black and rumors have already started that Allen is simply holding space until former head coach Jon Gruden gets tired of the Monday Night Football booth. Allen will need to kill that noise with some preseason wins, which haven’t been his specialty – going just 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS in the preseason.

Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons

Smith receives a “Get out of jail free” card for his past successes, but another season like 2013 and the Falcons head coach won’t be able to douse the flames shooting from his seat. Atlanta was a shocker last year, finishing 4-12 SU and 7-9 ATS, but can quickly show that it was a fluke by putting away a couple “Ws” during the tune-up schedule.

The catch is Smith doesn’t give a crap about the preseason, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS last August and boasting a 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS mark over the past three preseason schedules. However, 2014 is different. Smith hasn’t been under the gun like this and a Falcons fanbase that’s starving for wins will eat up some early victories, even if they don’t mean anything.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC North Outlook

August 6, 2014

Division winner

Detroit pulled off the grueling equivalent of fumbling inside the 10-yard line last season by squandering a 6-3 start in maddening fashion. Not only did the Lions completely blow each of their final six losses with asinine decisions and costly turnovers, they led or were tied in every fourth quarter. History will show that they failed to win a game after a 40-10 rout of eventual NFC North champ Green Bay, going winless in December to finish 7-9. The Packers won the division at 8-7-1. Detroit's last three losses came by a combined six points, the largest of which was decided on an overtime field goal. There's a lot of pain and frustration for new head coach Jim Caldwell to tap into. The fact he's on board instead of Jim Schwartz offers an immediate improvement, as will the arrival of receivers Golden Tate, Kevin Ogletree and rookie tight end Eric Ebron to enhance the offensive arsenal around Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush. QB Matthew Stafford should be a year wiser. First-year defensive coordinator Teryl Austin has a lot of talent to work with from a unit that gave up the fewest points in the division last season. Sometimes, the best motivation is the desire to bounce back from an epic collapse. That should pay dividends in this season's final months.

Projected order of finish

1) Detroit
2) Green Bay
3) Chicago
4) Minnesota

Go over with

The Detroit Lions are available at 8.5 at Sportsbook.ag, so expect them to at least get to 9-7 in Caldwell's first season and pull the trigger. Remember, he did go 14-2 in taking over for Tony Dungy in Indianapolis, remaining undefeated until after Christmas. If Stafford, Megatron and Bush stay healthy, the Lions will score points in bunches, especially if Ebron hits the ground running and adds another dimension. Defensively, Ndamukong Suh faces a key season after struggling in 2013, so a new voice like Austin should help him. The front seven has ridiculous talent in Suh, Ezekiel Ansah, Nick Fairley, Stephen Tulloch as well as rookies Kyle Van Noy and Larry Webster III. Meanwhile, the hope is that James Ihedigbo's vast postseason experience will help fortify the secondary. There's certainly reason for optimism.

Go under with

Green Bay won its third consecutive NFC North title last season, but saw its streak of four straight seasons with double-digit wins come to an end. Injuries played a major role in the regression, but expecting 10.5 wins, the Pack's projected win total at most books, provides little room for error. Given how brittle the offensive line has been in holding up, often being comprised of patchwork unit that leaves Aaron Rodgers running for his life, counting on the Packers to win 11 times given their tough division and scheduled games against defending champion Seattle, New England, Carolina, New Orleans and Philadelphia seems like far too tall an order to back.

Games to Watch - September

Sept. 4 - Green Bay at Seattle: The Thursday night season opener sees these powers meet for the second time in three years at CenturyLink Field. The Packers got beat on that awful "touchception" call that ended up helping to bring an end to the 2012 referee strike, so they'll be out to avoid walking off with another sour taste in their mouths.

Sept. 8 - N.Y. Giants at Detroit: The Lions get the opening stage of the Monday night doubleheader to start the Caldwell era off right and exorcize some well-documented demons.

Sept. 14 - Detroit at Carolina: Another major test awaits against the Panthers stingy defense. Win or lose, Stafford avoiding key turnovers in a hostile road atmosphere would be a positive sign of progress.

Sept. 14 - New England at Minnesota: We know to expect a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson to try and keep Tom Brady off the field, so this is a high-profile home opener the Vikings may be able to steal if they get a break or three.

Sept 14 - Chicago at San Francisco: The Week 2 Sunday night game will be a massive hurdle for Jay Cutler and a Bears offensive line that returns intact after starting all 16 games together last season. If they keep making significant progress, they'll be a factor in the NFC. This will be a great opportunity to see where they stand.

Sept. 21 - Green Bay at Detroit: The favorites square off in the first battle of a Black and Blue division that's been transformed into a pass-happy group outside of the Vikings. The Lions were perfect at home gains the rest of the NFC North last season, so maintaining that dominance will be key to their success.

Sept. 22 - Chicago at N.Y. Jets: Rex Ryan will have plenty in store for Cutler on a Monday night, but you can bet Marc Trestman will also have a few tricks up his sleeve. There's no question both head coaches are masterful strategists in their areas of expertise, so hopefully this winds up an intriguing chess match.

Sept. 28 - Green Bay at Chicago: The Packers stunned the Bears at Soldier Field in Week 17 to win the NFC North, stealing the game and division when Rodgers found Randall Cobb to convert a 4th-and-8 in the final minute. The 33-28 loss has haunted Chicago since, so this will be an emotional contest you can count on it being up for despite the short week.

Sept. 28 - Atlanta at Minnesota: Given the tough early schedule featuring the home date against the Patriots and road games against St. Louis and New Orleans, this one might be vital to the rest of 2014 for the Vikes.

 

[sendacash]

AFC West Notebook

August 4, 2014


Denver Broncos


Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 10-5-1, 11-5
-- If you take out last year’s 10-5-1 ATS mark, the Broncos have been one of the worst ATS teams with a record of 73-91-7 (44%) from 2003-2012.
-- Last year Denver was 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite but from 2003-2012 they were just 22-39-3 ATS (36%) in that role.
-- Dating back to 1982, Denver is 26-19 ATS (58%) coming off a bye. They have also played 28 OVERS and 17 UNDERS when coming off a bye week.
-- Broncos have faced AFC West rival Chargers 69 times since 1980. During the stretch the two have played to the UNDER 40 times, the OVER just 28 times with 1 push.
-- After starting the season going OVER the total in 10 of their first 12 games, the Broncos went UNDER the number 5 of their last 6 games (including playoffs).

Cnotes, While I appreciate all the content you are adding here sometimes its best to take these team trends with a grain of salt, putting them in the proper context. For example, the Broncos were a completely different team under Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow than they are with Peyton Manning. Going back to the start of the Manning era in Denver, the Broncos are 23-13 ATS in all games and a bristling 22-10 ATS (68%) as a fav. Granted they are now an extremely public team with inflated lines so play at your own risk.