Cnotes October's NFL Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 4

September 29, 2014

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center , which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 4 Consensus Picks (Number of Selections)

1) Green Bay -1.5 (530) WIN
2) Kansas City +3.5 (485)
3) Atlanta -3 (440) LOSS
4) Philadelphia +5.5 (359) WIN
5) New Orleans -3 (355) LOSS

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

2014 SuperContest Weekly and Overall Consensus Records

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage

1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 3-2 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 - - -
5 - - -
6 - - -
7 - - -
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Betting Recap - Week 4

September 30, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL Week 4 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 7-6

Against the Spread 7-6

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 8-5

Against the Spread 8-5

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 10-3

NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 37-24

Against the Spread 29-31-1

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 36-25

Against the Spread 27-33-1

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 32-29

Biggest Favorite to Cash

San Diego (-12) defeated Jacksonville, 33-14 as the Jaguars fell to 0-4 SU/ATS on season.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Tampa Bay (+7.5) rallied past Pittsburgh, 27-24 for its first victory and cover with a touchdown in the final seconds. The Bucs cashed on the moneyline at +300.

Line Moves

The Packers opened as one-point road underdogs early in the week, but closed as 1.5-point favorites at Chicago. That money went the right way as Green Bay dominated at Soldier Field, 38-17 for its first road win of the season. On Sunday morning, the Jets moved from 1.5-point home underdogs to 1.5-point favorites with rumors of Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson sitting. The All-Pro played and the Lions picked up a 24-17 road victory to send the Jets to their third straight loss, all against NFC North foes.

All About the Chalk

After Washington was blown out on Thursday by the Giants, the favorites took care of business on Sunday by compiling a 7-3 SU/ATS record. The underdogs that cashed included the Lions, Buccaneers, and Vikings, as Minnesota dropped 41 points on Atlanta in a 13-point victory as 5.5-point 'dogs. Indianapolis and San Diego were "suicide pool" favorites, as each team won easily at home.

One Unbeaten Down

Arizona, Cincinnati, and Seattle all were off, as the lone undefeated team that played on Sunday was Philadelphia. The Eagles blew a 21-10 lead in a 26-21 defeat at San Francisco as 3.5-point underdogs, as all three touchdowns scored by Philadelphia were non-offensive scores (blocked punt return, interception return, punt return). The irony behind this loss by the Eagles was Philadelphia domination in the second half this season and San Francisco's lack of execution in the final 30 minutes of a game. The Niners entered Sunday by scoring just three points in the second half of the first three games, but outscored the Eagles, 13-0 in the last 30 minutes to improve to 2-2.

Winless (0-4)

Tampa Bay can finally be erased from this category after upsetting Pittsburgh, but Oakland and Jacksonville remain winless. The Raiders (+4) traveled to London and were embarrassed by the Dolphins, 38-14, while allowing 435 yards to Miami. The Jaguars (+12) grabbed a 14-10 lead over the Chargers behind rookie quarterback Blake Bortles, but San Diego outscored Jacksonville, 23-0 in the final 31 minutes to cash.

Totals

The 'over' hit in five of the seven early games, while the 'over' went 2-1 in the late kickoffs.

Following a scoreless first quarter, the Ravens and Panthers combined for four touchdowns in the second quarter to go 'over' the first half total of 21. Baltimore blew out Carolina, 38-10 to hit the 'over' of 42.5.

The highest-scoring game of the day took place in Minnesota with the Vikings knocking off the Falcons, 41-28 on a 48 total. The first half total of 24 easily hit as Minnesota led Atlanta at halftime, 24-14.

Buffalo and Houston have each played low-scoring games through the first three weeks as the two teams finished 'under' the total of 44. Houston's key touchdown on Sunday came on an interception return by J.J. Watt, which swung the momentum in a 23-17 victory.

Following Thursday's N.Y. Giants-Washington game, and Sunday night's New Orleans-Dallas game, the 'over' has cashed in four straight Sunday Night Football games, and is 10-2 in 12 prime time games this season.

 

[CNOTES]

Books earn small win in Week 4

September 29, 2014

LAS VEGAS – Sportsbooks in Las Vegas won again in Week 4, although you won’t hear Johnny Avello brag about it. The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations said he does not like to look at the weekly results, which show books beating bettors in three of the first four weeks of the NFL season.

“For me, I just can’t look at this stuff from a week-to-week basis,” Avello said. “And I refuse to look at it from a week-to-week basis because things just don’t go right sometimes. Sometimes they go very right. Week-to- week has probably got nothing to do with the favorites winning, it’s got nothing to do with who should win. It’s just in certain weeks, players are just on the right side. That’s all there is to it.”

Avello noted the San Francisco 49ers rallying back to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 26-21 as 3.5-point home favorites as one example. The 49ers had opened -4.5 at The Wynn, but the public pushed the line down in favor of the previously undefeated Eagles. San Francisco trailed 21-10 in the second quarter.

“I don’t think the 49ers had any business covering the game yesterday, but they did,” Avello said. “Football is a crazy game, you can handicap until you’re blue in the face. But when it’s all said and done, you cannot handicap things that happen on the football field. You just can’t.”

The biggest win for the books came in Minnesota, where the Vikings blew away the Atlanta Falcons 41-28 behind rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Atlanta opened as a 2.5-point road favorite and was bet up to -5.5 at The Wynn just prior to kickoff.

“I don’t think the Falcons are any good on the road,” Avello said. “Good home team, but they’re just no good on the road.”

The public’s biggest wins came with the Green Bay Packers and the Indianapolis Colts, both of whom ended up closing a half-point higher than the opening numbers but saw the lines higher in their favor earlier in the week.

The Packers closed as 1.5-point road favorites against the Chicago Bears and had been as high as -2.5 after opening at -1. The Colts opened as 7-point home favorites but were as high as -8.5 after reports surfaced that Tennessee Titans quarterback Jake Locker would likely miss the game. Indy ended up winning 41-17 as Titans backup QB Charlie Whitehurst struggled immensely.

“I knew we were going to need the dog there, there’s just nothing we could do about it,” Avello said of the Bears, who lost to Green Bay 38-17. “The bettors look at games, and they say, the Packers are not going to lose again. They’re going to be in the hunt, and of course that’s exactly what happened. The Colts are a good team, and they’re going to continue to be a good team.”

The Detroit Lions also took care of business on the road against the New York Jets, winning 24-17 after closing as 1.5-point underdogs. The Lions had opened -1.5, but Avello said that game was split equally. “There was Lion money, and there was Jet money both at those numbers,” he said. “It actually was balanced out pretty good. We did ok. You’ve got money going one way, you move the line, you’ve got money going back the other way. That game was balanced out.”

Avello also said big money came in on the Dallas Cowboys for their Sunday Night Football game against the New Orleans Saints, who still opened and closed at -3. The Cowboys ended up blowing out the Saints 38-17 in one of Week 4’s more surprising results.

Regarding the Monday Night Football matchup with the New England Patriots visiting the Kansas City Chiefs, Avello said the public could post another win if the home team covers the 3-point spread as an underdog. That will likely make him a fan of the Patriots.

“This game’s all the way down to 3,” said Avello, who opened New England -4.5. “Yeah, I think (we need the Patriots). But again it’s a Monday night game, so you don’t know where your money’s going to come. Some comes during the day, some comes late. So you just never know what you’re going to need until kickoff.”

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 5

October 1, 2014

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY...Vikes "over" 13-7 since LY. Pack 0-6-1 last 7 vs. number at Lambeau (much without Rodgers LY, however). Slight to Vikings, based on extended Packer spread woes.


Sunday, Oct. 5

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CHICAGO at CAROLINA..Bears have won and covered first two as dog on road this season. Chicago also "over" 7-1 last seven since late 2013. "Over" and Bears, based on "totals" and team trends

CLEVELAND at TENNESSEE...Titans no covers and outscored 100-34 last three after opening win over KC. Browns "over" 3-0 TY. "Over" and Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.

ST. LOUIS at PHILADELPHIA...Eagles "over" 5-2-1 last eight reg.-season games. Rams 1-0 as road dog TY, in fact road team 3-0 vs. line in Ram games this season. Fisher 2-6 in role LY but was 7-1 getting points away in 2012. Slight to "over" and Rams, based on team and "totals" trends.

ATLANTA at NY GIANTS...G-Men have recovered quick with two SU wins and covers in a row. NYG also "over" 3-1 TY. Falcs 4-9-1 vs. spread last 14 away. Giants and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS...Saints now 18-0 SU and 17-0-1 vs. line at Superdome since 2011 with Sean Payton on sidelines. Saints have also covered 4 of last 5 in series. Saints, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at DALLAS...Jerry Jones 6-15 vs. line last 21 in Arlington. Texans, based on extended Dallas home negatives..

BUFFALO at DETROIT...Lions 7-3 vs. spread as host since 2013. Bills 2-10 last 12 as dog away from home. Lions, based on team trends

BALTIMORE at INDIANAPOLIS...Ravens 8-3 last 11 overall as dog. Indy 6-6 last 12 as Lucas Oil chalk. Ravens, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at JACKSONVILLE...Jags 0-4 SU and vs. line, also "over" 9-3-1 last 13 since mid 2013. Steel just 3-8 as road chalk since 2011 "Over" and slight to Steelers, based on "totals" and team trends.

ARIZONA at DENVER...Broncos now 0-3 vs. line TY, also "under" 2-0-1 after long-running "over" trends prior. Cards "under" 3-0 TY and 6-2 "under" last 8 since late 2013. "Under," based on recent "totals" trends

KANSAS CITY at SAN FRANCISCO...49ers "under" 11-4 last 15 since mid 2013. Andy Reid 9-1 vs. line away in reg.-season games with Chiefs. Chiefs and "under," based on team trends.

NY JETS at SAN DIEGO...Bolts 8-2 vs. spread last ten since late 2013. But Rexy 7-3 as dog since LY, and underdog is 3-0 in Jets games TY. Slight to Jets, based on recent Rex dog mark.

CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND...Bengals 11-2 vs. line last 13 away in reg.-season games. Patriots 1-4 vs. line last five since late 2013. Bengals, based on recent trends.


Monday, Oct. 6

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

at SEATTLE at WASHINGTON...Skins 3-9 vs. line last 12 since mid 2013 (1-3 for Jay Gruden). Seahawks 26-12-2 vs. spread overall since 2012. Seahawks, based on Redskins negatives.

 

[CNOTES]

Betting the bye: NFL's best/worst bets off the bye week

Week 5 in the NFL sees quite a few teams returning from their bye weeks, and if you're planning on betting on any of the action, you need to factor that into your handicapping.

Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Seattle and St. Louis are coming off of byes. Last season, teams went 18-14 SU and 15-17 ATS in matchups after an extra week of rest.

Since 2001, NFL clubs are 219-186-3 SU and 216-183-3 ATS in games after a bye, covering 54 percent of the time.

Historically, certain teams have been fantastic plays after bye weeks while others have not. Here's a look at the best and worst bets in that category:

Stats since 1990 (1993 season had two bye weeks).

Best bets off the bye

Dallas Cowboys: 17-7 ATS/17-7 SU
Denver Broncos: 17-7-1 ATS/18-6 SU
Philadelphia Eagles: 16-7 ATS/20-4 SU
Arizona Cardinals: 14-10 ATS/11-13 SU
Buffalo Bills: 14-9-1 ATS/15-9 SU

Worst bets off the bye

Seattle Seahawks: 5-17-2 ATS/7-17 SU
New York Giants: 7-16-1 ATS/9-15 SU
Oakland Raiders: 9-14-1 ATS/10-14 SU
San Francisco 49ers: 8-15-1 ATS/10-14 SU
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-13 ATS/7-17 SU

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5/B]

Minnesota at Green Bay
The Packers host the Vikings on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games at home versus Minnesota. Green Bay is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2

Game 301-302: Minnesota at Green Bay (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 121.893; Green Bay 140.422
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 18 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9); Under


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5

Game 451-452: Chicago at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 131.769; Carolina 130.767
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Over

Game 453-454: Cleveland at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.186; Tennessee 133.182
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+1 1/2); Over

Game 455-456: St. Louis at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 126.313; Philadelphia 136.073
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 10; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-7); Under

Game 457-458: Atlanta at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 128.379; NY Giants 135.217
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 7; 55
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-4); Over

Game 459-460: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.937; New Orleans 133.394
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+10 1/2); Under

Game 461-462: Houston at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 131.610; Dallas 129.115
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 46
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+6); Over

Game 463-464: Buffalo at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.295; Detroit 137.332
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 10; 40
Vegas Line: Detroit by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-7); Under

Game 465-466: Baltimore at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 139.229; Indianapolis 139.627
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3 1/2); Under

Game 467-468: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.104; Jacksonville 126.048
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 50
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2); Over

Game 469-470: Arizona at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 127.433; Denver 140.986
Dunkel Line: Denver by 13 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Over

Game 471-472: Kansas City at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 138.838; San Francisco 136.857
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 41
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+6 1/2); Under

Game 473-474: NY Jets at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 130.911; San Diego 129.631
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+7); Under

Game 475-476: Cincinnati at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 139.630; New England 135.686
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 51
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1; 46
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1); Over


MONDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 477-478: Seattle at Washington (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 136.913; Washington 132.393
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7 1/2); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 2

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MINNESOTA (2 - 2) at GREEN BAY (2 - 2) - 10/2/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 156-114 ATS (+30.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 5

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CHICAGO (2 - 2) at CAROLINA (2 - 2) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (1 - 2) at TENNESSEE (1 - 3) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (1 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 1) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 137-173 ATS (-53.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 137-173 ATS (-53.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 99-136 ATS (-50.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (2 - 2) at NY GIANTS (2 - 2) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 3) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (3 - 1) at DALLAS (3 - 1) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (2 - 2) at DETROIT (3 - 1) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 50-72 ATS (-29.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (3 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 2) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 4) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 92-63 ATS (+22.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 0) at DENVER (2 - 1) - 10/5/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 47-28 ATS (+16.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/5/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (1 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 1) - 10/5/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (3 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 2) - 10/5/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-124 ATS (+23.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 98-72 ATS (+18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (2 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 3) - 10/6/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
SEATTLE is 28-53 ATS (-30.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, Oct. 2nd

Minnesota at Greeen Bay, 8:25 ET
Minnesota: 4-15 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog
Green Bay: 102-69 ATS after playing their last game on the road


Sunday, Oct. 5th

Chicago at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 32-51 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Carolina: 78-55 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Cleveland at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 19-8 UNDER after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games
Tennessee: 30-14 OVER after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game

St. Louis at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 12-27 ATS against NFC East division opponents
Philadelphia: 5-16 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points

Atlanta at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 14-4 ATS in road games after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game
NY Giants: 35-20 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog

Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 23-9 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
New Orleans: 8-1 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5

Houston at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Houston: 17-5 UNDER in road games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
Dallas: 32-14 ATS in home games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Buffalo at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 10-1 ATS off a road loss
Detroit: 10-27 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Baltimore at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 22-8 UNDER against AFC South division opponents
Indianapolis: 11-3 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 92-63 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Jacksonville: 3-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Arizona at Denver, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 14-4 OVER after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Denver: 46-68 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

Kansas City at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 18-6 ATS against NFC West division opponents
San Francisco: 40-23 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

NY Jets at San Diego, 4:25 ET
NY Jets: 34-19 OVER after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
San Diego: 0-7 ATS in home games off 1 or more straight overs

Cincinnati at New England, 8:30 ET
Cincinnati: 19-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
New England: 10-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games


Monday, Oct. 6th

Seattle at Washington, 8:35 ET
Seattle: 15-6 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Washington: 27-48 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 2

8:25 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 7-13-1 SU in its last 21 games ,
Green Bay is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games ,at home


Sunday, October 5

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games
Philadelphia is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the NY Giants last 9 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games at home
Tennessee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. JACKSONVILLE
Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. DALLAS
Houston is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 10 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games
Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. DENVER
Arizona is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games at home

4:25 PM
NY JETS vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing San Diego
NY Jets are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
San Diego is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

4:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NEW ENGLAND
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati


Monday, October 6

8:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. WASHINGTON
Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 11 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Thursday game
Vikings (2-2) @ Packers (2-2)— Minnesota won 41-28 in Bridgewater’s first career start; he sprained ankle late in game, is expected to play here, but it is his first road start. Vikings scored 34-41 points in their two wins, 7-9 in losses- they ran ball for 186-241 yards in their two wins, 54-59 in losses. Pack is 23-15 in last 38 games as a home favorite, 3-5 in last eight. Vikings are 8-4 in last 12 games as a road underdog. Green Bay is 7-1-1 in last nine series games, 4-0-1 in last five here, winning by 4-38-9-14 points; their OL struggles show up in running game- they’re averaging 73 ypg on ground, not good. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 5-7 vs spread. Three of four Viking games stayed under total; three of four Packer games went over.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 5


Chance of messy conditions at Lambeau Thursday night

The Minnesota Vikings will visit the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field Thursday night, and weather forecasts are calling for potentially sloppy conditions.

There is a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms in the area leading up to - and during - the game, with that increasing to 91 percent as the game wears on.

Currently, the Packers are 9-point home favorites and the total is 47.5.


Bridgewater not practicing but Sharp money on Vikes

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater put on a show in front of the home crowd in Week 4, leading his team to a 41-28 victory - as 5-point dogs - over the Atlanta Falcons.

But cheers turned to gasps from the Minnesota faithful as the Louisville product was carted off with an ankle sprain in the fourth quarter. Still, there was optimism the rookie would start at the Green Bay Packers this week.

News out of Minnesota is that Bridgewater has missed practice both Monday and Tuesday, but early sharp money is still backing the Vikings.

"Thursday night's game opened Green Bay -9.5 and to our surprise, smart money came on the dog and currently we have -9 (-105)," Scott Kaminsky of The Greek told Covers. "If he (Bridgewater) cannot play, Christian Ponder will get the start so you can expect the line to to to +10.5."

 

[CNOTES]

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL line moves

There are some hefty spreads on the NFL Week 5 board, with plenty of lines hovering around a touchdown.

We look at some of the biggest line moves as Sunday draws near, and talk to Scott Kaminsky of TheGreek.com about why those odds are moving and where they could end up come kickoff:

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -4, Move: -6

Money jumped on the Cowboys Tuesday night, pushing this spread two points at most books. Dallas is coming off an impressive win over New Orleans on Sunday night and stays home for this Lone Star State showdown with Houston.

“The more I thought about the opening number, the more it seemed too low,” Kaminsky tells Covers. “The wiseguys whacked it on September 30 around 5 p.m. ET and moved it to six. The thing about this Dallas team is that you never know which one is going to show up.”


Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos – Open: -8, Move: -7.5, Move: Off

With the status of Arizona QB Carson Palmer up in the air, Kaminsky pulled this spread off the board until getting further news. However, before the game came down, there was action on the Cardinals – even with Palmer’s status unknown. Other shops are dealing this game between seven and 7.5 in favor of Denver.

“I’m going to put it back up tonight. I don’t think it makes much of a difference if (Palmer) is in or not,” he says. “The first bet we took was on Arizona. The public is split on this game. Arizona has come out 3-0 and has looked impressive. Then you have them going against best quarterback in the league.”


Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots – Open: -3, Move: Pick, Move: +1

This line opened before the Patriots’ poor showing against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Sharp money grabbed the Bengals +3 early before Monday’s game went off. They reopened this game at a pick’em and the market is still siding with Cincinnati, making the Bengals 1-point road faves in Foxborough.

“The tell on New England, in hindsight, was the week before when they struggled to beat Oakland at home,” says Kaminsky. “They were up seven at the half and I was convinced they would win by more than a touchdown, so I put up -6.5 (-120) at the half and got it stuck right up my tuckus. They didn’t cover that second half line which shows you just how bad they are.”​

 

[CNOTES]

Trends to Watch - October

October 1, 2014


The first month of the 2014 NFL season is now in the history books and with it we turn the page to October as the teams now begin to evolve.

Thanks to our all-knowing, well-oiled sports database, listed below as some of the good, bad and flat out ugly team trends in five situational categories – home, away, favorite, dog and division, compiled by various teams in games played throughout the month of October.

Pay close attention as ghosts and goblins from the past are suddenly knocking at the door.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is a notoriously slow starter, but once October comes, that is when the Steelers normally start making a move. This is especially true against the spread at home where they are 29-15. Pitt has a Monday night game with Houston on Oct. 20 followed by Indianapolis visiting the Steel City.

Keep an eye on (Bad): History is against Cincinnati in this role, but this year’s squad might be trying to rewrite the past. The Bengals are 16-27 ATS this month, thus, let’s see how they do against Carolina (10/12) and with Baltimore in a revenge spot (10/26).

AWAY TEAMS

Good: No matter where he’s coached, Tom Coughlin has seen his teams produce on the road and he has been a big part as to why the New York Giants are 28-14 ATS this month away. The G-Men will have back-to-back division road games at Philadelphia and Dallas starting Oct. 12th.

Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta is right behind the Giants are 27-14 ATS, but will need its defense to play better. The Falcons travel to New Jersey to face the G-Men (10/5), Baltimore (10/19), followed by a visit to London versus Detroit.

Carolina has been another solid away crew with a 23-14 ATS record. However, their mettle will be tested twice, at Cincinnati (10/12) and at Green Bay (10/19).

Bad: One of the surprise teams of the early season has been Arizona. When the calendar turns to the second month of the season, this has been where the Cardinals have faltered with a 12-25 ATS record. Will this year’s team be different at Denver (10/5) and at Oakland (10/19)?

Keep an eye on (Bad): The defending Super Bowl champions Seattle have been a sorry bunch away from the Northwest at 17-33 ATS and they have three road contests as the hunted team is at Washington, St. Louis and Carolina. Nothing easy picking up all those air miles.

Tampa Bay off their huge upset at Pittsburgh has their third straight roadie headed to New Orleans on Oct. 5, attempting to improve on 14-27 ATS figure.

Let’s call it what it has been, a rotten month for Cincinnati. The Bengals are also a miserable 19-31 ATS away from the Queen City and will see Tom Brady (10/5) and Andrew Luck (10/19) on the road.

The complexion of the Minnesota offense has changed dramatically in the last month, which is not a good thing with a trio of away outings to Green Bay, Buffalo and Tampa Bay. This is especially true carrying an 18-28 ATS record.

FAVORITES

Bad: Surprise! Here we find the Bengals again at 10-21 ATS with the Panthers and Ravens being underdogs.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Kansas City is a bankroll depleting 10-18 ATS and on the last Sunday of the month will be favored over cross-state rival St. Louis in the Show Me State showdown.

Despite playing three road games this month, Seattle should be favored four times and are 13-23 ATS in October in this spot. Besides the aforementioned trio of away outings, they host Dallas on Oct. 12th.

Tampa Bay is just 15-25 ATS giving points and they might be a favorite on the 26th when Minnesota is in town.

DOGS

Good: The New York Giants as we mentioned will be at the Eagles and Cowboys and undoubtedly will be underdogs, a role they have excelled, at 22-10 ATS.

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina will be catching points three times this month at Cincy, at Green Bay and hosting the Seahawks, trying to better a 26-14 ATS mark. This might not be easy unless they show improvement.

Chicago is an underdog at Carolina on Oct. 5th and certainly will be receiving oddsmakers points at Atlanta the following week and 14 days later at New England. Will the Bears better 24-16 ATS record or do more Jay Cutler mistakes bury them?

Keep an eye on (Bad): Minnesota has been a bad doggy at 13-24 ATS and will be catching points the first two contests of the month vs. the Packers and Detroit. Road games at Buffalo and Tampa Bay means just catching fewer digits.

San Francisco’s 11-21 ATS mark as dogs predates the Jim Harbaugh days. The Niners will however be underdogs in Denver on Oct. 19th.

The Buccaneers will be dogs in New Orleans (Oct.5) and home when Baltimore pays a visit, with a home game against Minnesota TBD. No matter what, Tampa Bay is 19-29 ATS in October.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is solid bet here at 25-13 ATS and will be at rival Cleveland the day after the real Columbus Day.

The Giants and Jets are both 24-13 ATS in division and each has two confrontations in division. NY/1 travels to Philly and Big D, while NY/2 has a Thursday in New England and returns home 10 days later with Buffalo paying a visit.

Bad: Cincinnati has the worst division spread record of any team in any month at 11-29 ATS. Does this place them in trouble when Baltimore is in town on Oct. 26th?

With how good New Orleans has been in the Drew Brees era, it is easy to forget he too has contributed to the Saints 11-23 ATS mark against the NFC South.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Seattle’s recent success under Pete Carroll cannot hide a 15-26 ATS record in division. Just one occurrence happens at St. Louis on Oct. 19th.

You would think Jacksonville would be all over every month for playing badly. In division they are 13-22 ATS and travel to Tennessee on the second Sunday of the month.

 

[CNOTES]

Inside the Stats - Week 5

September 30, 2014


Week Five of the 2014 NFL season is here and with it only two teams remain undefeated – Arizona and Cincinnati, both of whom avoided the grim reaper with Bye Weeks.

As we do each week, let’s take a deeper look inside the stats and analyze the numbers to date.

Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Sept. 29 unless noted otherwise.

By Land or by Air

With September in the rear view mirror, here are the leading college football offensive and defensive rushing and passing stats complied season to date against FBS teams only with a minimum of three game results. Stats compiled in FCS games are excluded.

Best Passing Offense Yards Per Game:
1. Washington State 481
2. Western Kentucky 462
3. West Virginia 402

Worst Passing Offense Yards Per Game:
1. Eastern Michigan 83
2. New Mexico 90
3. Navy 91

Best Rushing Offense Yards Per Game:
1. Wisconsin 402
2. Nebraska 395
3. Navy 358

Worst Rushing Offense Yards Per Game:
1. Wake Forest 13
2. SMU 44
3. Kent State 44

Looking Inside the Stats

As you know, football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. To re-iterate, gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game.

Here are the phony teams playing this week who won phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; won the game but were out-gained by 100 or more yards:

-- College Football: Air Force, BYU, and Nevada.
-- NFL: Green Bay Packers.

These are the teams playing this week who lost phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:

-- College Football: Boise State and San Jose State.
-- NFL: Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams.

FYI: there is one game on this week’s card involving ‘double inside-out’ stat results from last week – or teams off a phony SU win but stat loss playing an opponent off a SU loss but a stat win: Boise State vs. Nevada.

Who’s Hot And Who’s Not

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

-- Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith is 16-3 ATS in his NFL career in games off a loss of eight or more points, including 10-3 SU and 13-0 ATS if his squad’s win percentage is .400 or greater.

-- The Chicago Bears are 2-0 SU and ATS in games in which they have been out-gained this season. Chicago is 0-2 SU and ATS in games in which they have out-gained their opponents.

-- Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler is 0-4 ATS in his NFL career as a dog versus opponents off back-to-back losses by an average loss of 15 points per game.

-- Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is 18-6 SU and ATS In his NFL career in games off a win when facing a non-division opponent, including 6-0 ATS during the first four games of the season.

-- The Detroit Lions held their first three opponents to season low yards this campaign. They held the New York Jets to a 2nd low yardage mark last week.

-- St. Louis Rams head coach Jeff Fisher is 91-62-1 ATS as an underdog. He has faced Philadelphia only once in his NFL career, defeating the Eagles 31-13 as a 13-point underdog in 2006.

STAT OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 0-5 SU and ATS in his last five games versus winless opponents.

 

[CNOTES]

• [h=5]NFL > (465) BALTIMORE@ (466) INDIANAPOLIS | 10/05/2014 - 01:00 PM[/h] Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using the against the spread in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
  [h=6] The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+8 units)
  
  [/h]

• [h=5]NFL > (469) ARIZONA@ (470) DENVER | 10/05/2014 - 04:05 PM[/h] Play ON DENVER using the against the spread when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
  [h=6] The record is 15 Wins and 3 Losses for the since 1992 (+11.7 units)
  
  [/h]

• [h=5]NFL > (467) PITTSBURGH@ (468) JACKSONVILLE | 10/05/2014 - 01:00 PM[/h] Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE using the against the spread as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
  [h=6] The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-12.4 units)
  
  [/h]

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, October 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football: Vikings at Packers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-9, 47.5)

Aaron Rodgers implored anxious fans of the Green Bay Packers to "relax" and then went out and made sure they were able to do just that with a brilliant performance in a lopsided rout at bitter rival Chicago on Sunday. With a much brighter outlook surrounding the team, Rodgers and Green Bay will host another NFC North opponent when the Minnesota Vikings pay a visit on Thursday night. The Packers are 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings, including a 26-26 tie at home last November.

Minnesota is hoping it won't have to start its third quarterback in as many weeks after rookie Teddy Bridgewater injured an ankle during last week's 41-28 victory over visiting Atlanta. Bridgewater, the No. 32 pick in this year's draft, threw for 317 yards and ran for a touchdown Sunday in his first career start, but exited the game in the fourth quarter due to an ankle injury. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said he is "hopeful" Bridgewater will play after an MRI exam came back clean, but the quarterback did sit out Monday's practice.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Packers -9. O/U: 47

LINE HISTORY: After opening as Green Bay -10, the line has since dropped to -9 on Wednesday. The total has seen a big drop after opening at 50, it now rests at 47.5.

INJURY REPORT: Vikings - LB Chad Greenway (Out-Ribs), QB Teddy Bridgewater (Ques-Thurs) Packers - WR Jarrett Boykin (Out-Knee).

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 78 percent chance of thunderstorms in Green Bay. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U): Bridgewater was not the only rookie to make a big impression in Sunday's win. Running back Jerick McKinnon, a converted quarterback out of Georgia Southern, ran for 135 yards on 18 carries as Minnesota rolled up 241 of its 558 yards on the ground after failing to score a TD in its previous seven quarters. Jarius Wright added eight catches for 132 yards to help spark an offense that has already lost stud running back Adrian Peterson following allegations of child abuse as well as starting quarterback Matt Cassel and tight end Kyle Rudolph to injury. Bridgewater on Tuesday declined to give a percentage on his chances of playing and his unavailability would open the door for former first-round pick Christian Ponder.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Following pair of meager offensive outputs in losses sandwiched around a come-from-behind victory over the New York Jets, Rodgers was spectacular in the 38-17 romp in Chicago, throwing for 302 yards and fourth touchdowns while compiling a 151.2 passer rating. Jordy Nelson caught two more scoring passes and leads the league with 33 catches and 459 yards while fellow wideout Randall Cobb also went over 100 yards receiving and added two touchdowns to give him five on the season. There are concerns about second-year back Eddie Lacy, who has yet to surpassed 48 yards in a game following his 1,178-yard campaign as a rookie. The defense also is struggling, allowing 235 yards rushing and 496 total to the Bears.

TRENDS:

*Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
*Packers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
*Over is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings.
*Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Green Bay.

CONSENSUS: 54.71 percent of users are taking the Packers -9 with 69.8 percent taking the over.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, October 2

Slick field could plague Vikings' Bridgewater and injured ankle

The forecast in Green Bay is calling for a 70 percent chance of rain for Thursday’s game between the hometown Packers and the rival Minnesota Vikings.

While a little wetness won’t force sportsbooks to adjust their odds, bettors looking for an edge when capping the weather need to look no further than Minnesota rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater and his tender left ankle.

The slick field conditions could put an extra strain on Bridgewater’s ankle, something sportsbooks haven’t overlooked as Thursday draws closer, setting the Vikings as 9-point underdogs.

“Bridgewater is still bothered by that ankle,” says Scott Kaminsky of The Greek.com. “(The poor conditions are) going to make it even more difficult on that sprained ankle, and his plant foot could easily give out because of the rain.”

Bridgewater, who passed for 317 yards and scrambled for 27 more gains and a touchdown in his first career start against Atlanta last Sunday, suffered the injury late in the fourth quarter in Week 4 and has a short week to recover before traveling to Wisconsin Thursday. Bridgewater remains optimistic but did sit out practice Monday and Tuesday.

“If he doesn’t play, this game goes up to 10 or 10.5,” says Kaminsky. “You’re bringing in (Christian) Ponder. If (Bridgewater) does play, there’s a good chance the ankle goes with all the sliding around and then you’re stuck with Ponder.”

Kaminsky says that while most books are dealing this game between 8.5 and nine, sharp bettors are buying points on the Packers and taking Green Bay -10 and -10.5.

"Teasers are mounting on Green Bay. That could be an issue."

The total for Thursday’s game is set at 47.5 points. The Packers and Vikings are 20-8-1 Over/Under in their previous 29 head-to-head meetings.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, October 2


Looking like Bridgewater will sit vs. Packers, worth 1.5 points to spread

It is looking more and more like Vikings rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will sit out Thursday night's showdown with the Green Bay Packers with an ankle injury.

ESPN Insider Adam Schefter, is reporting Thursday morning that signs are points to Teddy Bridgewater will not play tonight in Green Bay. Christian Ponder would start in Bridgewater's place.

The Packers are currently 7.5-point home favorites and look for the line to move back towards the Packers as we get closer to kickoff, as Bridgewater could be worth 1.5-points to the line, according to Scott Kaminsky of TheGreek.com.

"Last week there's no way Ponder could have done what Teddy did, even though Teddy is a rookie," Kaminsky told Covers.

The total for the game has also dropped back down to 47.5. It opened at 50 back on Sunday.

 

[CNOTES]

Vikings at Packers

October 2, 2014

As the calendar turns to October, 13 teams enter Week 5 with a 2-2 record, including the Vikings and Packers. These two NFC North rivals hook up at Lambeau Field on Thursday, each coming off impressive victories last week. All three teams in the division sit one game behind the Lions (3-1) starting play this week, as the Packers play their third straight contest within the NFC North.

After suffering an ugly 19-7 loss at Detroit in Week 3, Green Bay rebounded in a huge way by pounding Chicago at Soldier Field, 38-17 to cash as 1 ½-point favorites. The Packers finally picked up a road victory following highway defeats to the Seahawks and Lions, as Aaron Rodgers tossed four touchdown passes and completed 22-of-28 attempts for 302 yards. Even though Chicago racked up nearly 500 yards of offense and held the ball for over 36 minutes, the Packers’ defense intercepted Jay Cutler twice, handing the Chicago quarterback his 10th loss in his last 11 starts against Green Bay.

Minnesota picked up its first victory at TCF Bank Stadium by knocking off Atlanta as five-point home underdogs, 41-28. Teddy Bridgewater paced the Vikings’ offense in his first NFL start, throwing for 317 yards and leading Minnesota to eight scores (four touchdowns and four field goals). Bridgewater briefly left the game with a sprained ankle, but is expected to start on Thursday at Green Bay. The ‘over’ of 47 ½ was never in doubt, as the Vikings led the Falcons at halftime, 24-14, as Minnesota snapped a two-game losing streak.

Both meetings last season busted the ‘over,’ as the Packers increased a seven-point lead up to 24 points in the fourth quarter of a 44-31 victory at the Metrodome as 7 ½-point road favorites in October. The Vikings were limited to 243 yards of offense, but were aided by a 109-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by Cordarrelle Patterson to open the game. Rodgers and Jordy Nelson hooked up for a pair of touchdowns to give the Packers their seventh win in eight tries against the Vikings.

The next matchup at Lambeau Field in November was anything but pretty, as the two teams finished in a 26-26 tie. Minnesota cashed as six-point underdogs, while Rodgers sat out with a broken collarbone. Following the home loss to the Packers a month earlier, the Vikings covered seven of their final nine games of the season, while snapping a four-game road losing streak against division foes with that tie. Minnesota blew a 23-13 fourth quarter lead as Green Bay evened the contest with a field goal in the final seconds of regulation. Both teams traded field goals in overtime, marking the first game in NFL history in which both teams scored but finished in a tie.

Since November of 2007, the Packers own a sparkling 18-2-1 SU record at home against division foes, as the two losses came to Chicago last season after Rodgers broke his collarbone in the first quarter and to Minnesota in 2009. Green Bay has covered 15 of 21 times in this span with four of those ATS losses coming as a double-digit favorite. The Vikings have put together a 4-9 ATS mark in their past 13 NFC North games on the highway since 2010, while winning just once in 13 tries, coming at Detroit in 2012.

Adrian Peterson remains out for the Vikings due to his legal situation, as Jerick McKinnon busted out with 135 yards in last Sunday’s win over the Falcons, which included a 55-yard run. Matt Asiata found the end zone three times against Atlanta, while rushing for 78 yards, as Minnesota is somewhat trying to put together a decent backfield without Peterson, who will miss his fourth straight game.

From a totals standpoint, the Packers have cashed the ‘over’ in three of four games, while the Vikings hits the ‘under’ in their first three contests before last week’s scoring outburst and ‘over’ against Atlanta. The ‘over’ continues to cash in primetime games this season, hitting in 11 of 13 contests under the lights, including three of four Thursday night matchups.

The Packers are currently 8 ½-point favorites at most spots, while several 9’s are lingering. The total sits between 47 ½ and 48 and there is a 70% chance of rain and temperatures in the mid-60’s. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.

 

[CNOTES]

QB dilemma for Vikings on Thursday

October 1, 2014

You might say the Minnesota Vikings are pondering a quarterbacking dilemma.

Their veteran starter, Matt Cassel, is gone for the season with a broken left foot. First-round draft pick Teddy Bridgewater took over in his first pro start last Sunday and performed extremely well in a 41-28 win over Atlanta. But Bridgewater sprained his left ankle and had to leave late in that game.

That could leave Christian Ponder, the former starter and a 2011 first-rounder, as the starter Thursday night when the Vikings visit Green Bay.

Even worse for Minnesota (No. 23 in the AP Pro32) is that the Packers (No. 11) and Aaron Rodgers seemed to find their mojo in a romp at Soldier Field last weekend.

None of this bodes well for the Vikings (2-2), a 9 1/2-point underdog to the Packers (2-2).

''If he can play, we'll play him,'' coach Mike Zimmer said of Bridgewater.

''I want to do what's best for the team. I'm sure the training staff and the coaching staff is going to do what's best for the team also,'' Bridgewater said.

The Packers have no such issues, especially after Rodgers picked apart the Bears for 302 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-17 rout.

''We have to do a great job of keeping an eye on our luggage - that means your man - and play football,'' cornerback Captain Munnerlyn said of the prospect of facing Rodgers and one of the NFL's top receivers, Jordy Nelson.

The Vikings might need eyes in the back of their heads to contain Rodgers and the Packers.

PACKERS, 33-16

No. 26 New York Jets (plus 6 1/2) at No. 5 San Diego

Anyone who can figure out this line, please clue us in.

BEST BET: CHARGERS, 27-13

No. 25 Cleveland (plus 2) at No. 30 Tennessee

Losing faith quickly in Titans, gaining some in Browns.

UPSET SPECIAL: BROWNS, 20-19

No. 4 Arizona (plus 7) at No. 3 Denver

A chance for unbeaten Cardinals to make a huge statement. Sorry ...

BRONCOS, 27-17

No. 2 Cincinnati (pick-em) at No. 13 New England

A chance for unbeaten Bengals to make a huge statement. Down goes the other spotless team.

PATRIOTS, 19-17

No. 14 Kansas City (plus 6 1/2) at No. 9 San Francisco

Alex Smith returns to Bay Area with Chiefs on the rise. But so might be 49ers.

49ERS, 24-23

No. 16 Chicago (plus 2 1/2) at No. 17 (tie) Carolina

Two teams coming off weak performances. Something seems very wrong with Panthers' defense.

BEARS, 27-21

No. 17 Pittsburgh (minus 6 1/2) at No. 32 Jacksonville

Two more teams coming off weak performances; this could be spot for first Jaguars win. We're not that brave.

STEELERS, 27-23

No. 15 Houston (plus 4) at No. 12 Dallas

For the Lone Star state championship.

COWBOYS, 28-20

No. 1 Seattle (minus 7) at No. 28 Washington, Monday night

For the Washington (state vs. city) championship. Fresher Super Bowl champs romp.

SEAHAWKS, 33-16

No. 6 Baltimore (plus 3 1/2) at No. 10 Indianapolis

Maybe the weekend's best matchup. First of four road games in five weeks for Ravens.

COLTS, 31-30

No. 20 Atlanta (plus 4) at No. 19 New York Giants

Giants have turned it around, Falcons O-line is an injury-ravaged mess.

GIANTS, 28-17

No. 29 St. Louis (plus 7) at No. 8 Philadelphia

Inconsistent as they are, Eagles can handle undermanned Rams.

EAGLES, 33-23

No. 27 Tampa Bay (plus 10 1/2) at No. 21 New Orleans

Angry Saints won't be as charitable to Bucs as Steelers were.

SAINTS, 27-20

No. 24 Buffalo (plus 7) at No. 7 Detroit

Would like to have seen EJ Manuel getting more of a chance.

LIONS, 26-16

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2014 RECORD: Against spread: This week (9-3); Season (27-29-3). Straight up: This week (9-3); Season (37-23)

Best Bet: 2-2 against spread, 3-1 straight up.

Upset special: 4-0 against spread, 3-1 straight up.