Cnotes NLCS & ALCS Best Bets !

[CNOTES]

MLB
Dunkel

NY Yankees at Detroit
The Tigers look to build on their 9-3 record in Max Scherzer's last 12 starts. Detroit is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-105). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 18

Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Detroit (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.007; Detroit (Scherzer) 17.047
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 6
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-105); Under

Game 919-920: San Francisco at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 17.364; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.596
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A




MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 18

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NY YANKEES (98 - 72) at DETROIT (94 - 76) - 4:05 PM
C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. MAX SCHERZER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 23-27 (-10.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 80-51 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 59-34 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 55-34 (+18.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 17-6 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in road games in day games this season.
NY YANKEES are 184-117 (+20.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 94-76 (-7.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 90-73 (-7.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 50-44 (-9.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 7-6 (+0.6 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. DETROIT since 1997
SABATHIA is 18-12 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.48 and a WHIP of 1.299.
His team's record is 22-15 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 21-16. (+3.6 units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SCHERZER is 4-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 2.73 and a WHIP of 1.382.
His team's record is 4-1 (+4.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-4. (-3.3 units)

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SAN FRANCISCO (98 - 72) at ST LOUIS (94 - 77) - 8:05 PM
TIM LINCECUM (R) vs. ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-4 (-0.1 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

TIM LINCECUM vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
LINCECUM is 5-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.157.
His team's record is 6-1 (+5.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-3. (+1.0 units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 1-4 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.259.
His team's record is 2-4 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-2. (+1.7 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 18

Wainwright is 1-2, 5.68 in seven starts since Sept 1; he is 1-1, 4.26 against the Giants this year. Cardinals won seven of their last ten home games. Lincecum hasn't started a game in 19 days; he has a 1.08 RA in three relief stints so far in playoffs, but allowed 12 runs in 10 IP in his last two starts. He didn't made a start vs St Louis this year, but pitched two hitless innings in Sunday's game at home. Giants won four of last six road games; visitors are 6-2 in their playoff games this fall. Beltran left early yesterday with a knee injury.

Scherzer is 5-1, 1.52 in his last 10 outings, but has been hampered by injuries; would expect quick hook on him once he gets past 5th inning; he allowed three runs in 4.2 IP in his only start vs Bronx this year. Sabathia is 4-0, 1.52 in his last five starts; he is 3-0, 4.15 in three starts vs Detroit this season. Bombers scored in only two of 30 series innings. Visiting teams are 16-11 in playoffs so far this month. Aside from Valverde, Tiger pitchers have allowed one run in their last 48.2 innings. Detroit won its last seven home games.




MLB

Thursday, October 18

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Trend Report
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4:07 PM
NY YANKEES vs. DETROIT
NY Yankees are 1-3-1 SU in their last 5 games ,when playing Detroit
NY Yankees are 2-3-1 SU in their last 6 games ,on the road
Detroit4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit7-0-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

8:07 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
San Francisco is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games
St. Louis is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Thursday, October 18

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NLCS betting preview: Giants at Cardinals
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San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals (Odds N/A)

Cardinals lead series 2-1

The St. Louis Cardinals hold a 2-1 lead in the National League Championship Series, but they could be without hot-hitting Carlos Beltran in Game 4. Beltran, who is batting .414 this postseason with three homers, is listed as day-to-day after exiting Wednesday’s game in the second inning with a strained left knee. Matt Carpenter replaced Beltran and promptly hit a two-run homer to help the Cardinals win 3-1 in a game that was delayed three hours and 28 minutes because of rain. After the loss, Giants manager Bruce Bochy announced that Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito will start the team’s next two games, with struggling Madison Bumgarner moving to the bullpen. Bumgarner is 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA in two postseason starts after ending the regular season with a 5.89 ERA in his last seven outings.

Giants right fielder Hunter Pence will likely keep his starting job, but he might be moved down in the batting order after going hitless in four at-bats in Game 3. Pence is 5-for-31 (.161) with four strikeouts and no RBI this postseason. First baseman Brandon Belt, who is 3-for-11 with no extra base hits in the NLCS, might be rested Thursday so Buster Posey can play first and Hector Sanchez can catch Lincecum. The Cardinals are hoping for a long outing from Adam Wainwright in Game 4 after using four relievers on Wednesday. The Cardinals’ bullpen has worked 37 1/3 innings in nine postseason games, and closer Jason Motte recorded the first two-inning save of his career in Game 3. He threw just 19 pitches, however, so he could be available in a save situation Thursday.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with a 30 percent chance of showers at Busch Stadium. Winds will blow out to center field at 14 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Tim Lincecum (1-0, 1.08 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (0-0, 7.88)

Lincecum is set to make his first start of the postseason after allowing one run on three hits with nine strikeouts in three relief appearances. Beltran is 7-for-14 with a homer against Lincecum, who is 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA in seven career starts against St. Louis. The two-time Cy Young award winner had an uncharacteristically poor regular season, especially on the road, where he went 6-6 with a 6.43 ERA in 16 outings.

Wainwright looks to rebound from the shortest start of his career after allowing six runs over 2 1/3 innings against Washington last Friday in Game 5 of the Division Series. He’s 2-4 with a 3.04 ERA is six career starts against the Giants, including 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA in two outings this season. Pence is 11-for-38 (.289) with a homer against Wainwright, who is making the first LCS start of his seven-year major league career.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 6-0 in Lincecum’s last six road starts.
* Cardinals are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Under is 5-1 in Cardinals’ last six home games.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Lincecum’s last five starts overall.

UMP TRENDS:- Greg Gibson

* Under is 7-1 in Gibson’s last eight games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
* Under is 9-2 in Gibson’s last 11 Thursday games behind home plate.
* Cardinals are 1-4 in their last five games with Gibson behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Since 1985, 17 of the 21 teams to take a 2-1 lead in the NLCS have gone on to advance to the World Series.

2. Giants 2B Marco Scutaro started Wednesday after leaving Game 2 with a strained left hip and had two hits. He’s 6-for-13 with two RBI in the series.

3. Wednesday’s win gave the Cardinals 40 postseason victories in the last 10 seasons, tied with the Yankees for most in the majors during that stretch.

 

[CNOTES]

Playoff Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/17/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/16/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/15/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/14/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2225 Detail
10/13/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1225 Detail
10/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1110 Detail
10/11/12 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*1220 Detail
10/10/12 5-*0-*1 100.00% +*2520 Detail
10/09/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*240 Detail
10/08/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1110 Detail
10/07/12 4-*4-*0 50.00% +*55 Detail
10/06/12 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail
10/05/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1610 Detail

Total: 32-18-1 64.00% +7185

Thursday, October 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 8:00 PM ET San Francisco +125 500

St. Louis - Over 7 500

 

[CNOTES]

Cardinals Push Giants To Brink Of NLCS Elimination

San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy’s big gamble didn’t pay off in Thursday’s Game 4 of the NLCS. Now Bochy’s Giants are looking at match point for the Cardinals unless the Bay Bombers can survive tonight at Busch Stadium and get the series back to AT&T Park.

What could be the finale of the NLCS takes place Friday night in St. Louis, with the Redbirds one win away form their second World Series appearance in a row and third since 2006 – not to mention another rematch in the Fall Classic vs. the Tigers, who could be meeting the Cards for the fourth time since 1934 in the World Series...but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.

The Friday pitching matchup features the bottom end of both rotations, with Barry Zito (15-8, 4.15 ERA in regular) on the mound for the Giants and Ole Miss Rebel alum Lance Lynn (18-7, 3.56 ERA in regular season) taking the ball for the Cardinals.

A check with the Don Best MLB odds screen notes host St. Louis anywhere form -155 to -160 on the win, with the total at 7½ shaded to the over, or 8 shaded to the under, at most Nevada wagering establishments. On the Run Line, laying the extra run with the Redbirds can fetch a price in the +135 range, while getting the extra run with San Francisco costs -155 at most Las Vegas outlets.

First pitch at Busch Stadium will be at 8:05 p.m. (ET), with big FOX providing the coverage. The trying-not-to-be-partial broadcast crew of Joe Buck and Tim McCarver will be on hand to describe the action.

Bochy’s gamble didn’t pay off in Game 4, when he altered his postseason rotation pattern and instead decided to roll the dice with Tim Lincecum, and not Zito, as his starter. Lincecum had pitched well out of the bullpen in the playoffs – prior to last night, in eight innings of postseason work, Lincecum had issued just one walk, as well as a mere two hits and one run, along with nine strikeouts – and was expected to be at the ready should expected starter Zito falter as he did in Game 4 at Cincinnati in the NLDS.

But the two-time Cy Young winner Lincecum resembled his erratic regular-season self on Thursday and was promptly shelled, putting Bochy and pitching coach Dave Righetti in a touch spot tonight with Zito, who probably won’t have Lincecum ready for a long stint in relief should Zito falter as he did at Cincy last week when lasting just 2 2/3 innings against the Reds.

Please note that over the course of the season, Zito has been the most-profitable pitcher in the NL, with the Giants 22-11 in his starts and +1525 units. The Giants have also won an astounding 12 straight games started by the vet lefty who, despite rarely being dominant in that stretch, has nonetheless seen the offense perk up considerably in his starts. The Giants have scored almost six runs per game for Zito in the 12 winning starts.

Therein, however, lies another dilemma for Bochy, as his offense has bogged down at Busch, scoring a combined four runs in Games 3 and 4 in St. Louis. The only bright spot in Game 4 was a homer hit by previously-slumping OF Hunter Pence.

Meanwhile, Mike Matheny counters with Lynn who had been demoted out of the rotation late in the summer before briefly resurfacing late in the regular season, only to be put back in the relief corps for the playoffs. A shoulder injury to Jaime Garcia in the NLDS vs. the Nats forced Matheny to put Lynn back into the NLCS rotation.

Lynn was not sharp in Game 1, allowing four runs and five hits while walking a pair in just 3 2/3 IP, although the Redbirds provided run support in an eventual 6-4 win. But Lynn’s numbers tailed off dramatically as the season progressed, and enters Game 5 with a 9.00 ERA in four postseason appearances. Lynn was also hit hard on August 7 at Candlestick, allowing four runs and eight hits over six innings in an eventual 4-2 loss, and has a 7.15 career ERA vs. San Francisco.

Before burying the Giants, remember how they fought with their backs against the wall against the Reds in the NLDS, sweeping three straight on the road to steal that series. Over the course of the season, San Francisco is also a solid 49-37 this season on the road, and 20-9 in its last 29 despite losses the past two nights.

The Giants, however, have only won one of four this season at Busch. Unless they can make it two out of five, their campaign ends tonight in St. Louis.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Dunkel

San Francisco at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to build on their 5-0 record in Lance Lynn's last 5 home starts against a team with a winning record. St. Louis is the pick, according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis. Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 19

Game 919-920: San Francisco at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.887; St. Louis (Lynn) 17.073
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A




MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 19

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SAN FRANCISCO (98 - 73) at ST LOUIS (95 - 77) - 8:05 PM
BARRY ZITO (L) vs. LANCE LYNN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 6-4 (+0.9 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.7 Units)

BARRY ZITO vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
ZITO is 2-6 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.89 and a WHIP of 1.731.
His team's record is 2-7 (-4.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-4. (+0.9 units)

LANCE LYNN vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LYNN is 0-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 7.80 and a WHIP of 1.467.
His team's record is 1-2 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.4 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, October 19

Giants are going home after this game; question is, will they make St Louis go with them? Zito is 5-0, 2.70 in his last six starts; SF won his last 12 starts, first of which was 5-2 over Cardinals August 7 (allowed two runs in 6.2 IP)- last time they lost one of his starts was August 2 vs Mets, but he lasted only 2.2 IP in last start, giving up two runs at Cincinnati. Lynn has a 7.20 RA in his last two starts; he allowed eight runs in 9.2 IP vs Giants this year. Cardinals won eight of their last 11 home games. Over is 11-4 in NL playoffs this fall.




MLB

Friday, October 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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8:07 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games at home
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home


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MLB

Friday, October 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NLCS betting preview: Giants at Cardinals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals (-145, 7.5)

St. Louis leads series 3-1

Just a week ago, the San Francisco Giants were on the brink of elimination before advancing to the National League Championship Series by winning three straight games against Cincinnati. Now they need to do it again.

The Giants are down 3-1 in the best-of-seven NLCS after the St. Louis Cardinals rolled to an 8-3 win in Game 3 on Thursday. The win moved St. Louis one victory away from a matchup with the Detroit Tigers in the World Series, with the Cardinals’ Lance Lynn slated to face Barry Zito in Game 5. Since the League Championship Series adopted the best-of-seven format in 1985, only four of the 33 teams that fell behind 3-1 have come back to win.

Cardinals right fielder Carlos Beltran sat out Game 4 with a strained left knee, but he’s hopeful that he’ll be able to return to the starting lineup on Friday. Despite Beltran’s absence, the Cardinals outhit the Giants 12-6 with Jon Jay, Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday driving in two runs apiece. Holliday and Molina stepped up after going a combined 6-for-40 in their previous five games, while the Giants’ Buster Posey remains mired in a 6-for-33 postseason slump. Posey, who led the NL with a .336 average this season, went hitless in four at-bats on Thursday and is 2-for-14 with three walks in the NLCS. If the Giants extend the series and send it back to San Francisco, Ryan Vogelsong would start Game 6 and Matt Cain would get the ball for Game 7.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for a 63 percent chance of rain early in the evening, giving way to cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 40s. Winds are expected to blow west at 9 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants LH Barry Zito (0-0, 6.75 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Lance Lynn (1-1, 8.59)

Zito looks to rebound from his shaky outing in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Reds, when he allowed four hits and four walks over 2 2/3 innings. He’s 2-6 with a 4.89 ERA in nine career starts against St. Louis, including 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his one outing this season. Allen Craig is 4-for-10 with three home runs against Zito, who has an 8.20 ERA in four career starts at Busch Stadium.

Lynn finished 18-7 in the regular season and made the National League All-Star team, but he struggled in August and worked out of the bullpen in the NLDS against Washington. He started Game 1 of the NLCS against the Giants and cruised through the first three innings before allowing four runs in the fourth and leaving after 3 2/3 frames.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in Zitos last five starts vs. Cardinals.
* Giants are 2-6 in Zitos last eight starts vs. Cardinals.
* Giants are 1-4 in the last five meetings.

UMP TRENDS - Ted Barrett:

* Home team is 7-1 in Barretts last 8 games behind home plate.
* Under is 10-4-1 in Barretts last 15 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
* Cardinals are 1-4 in their last five games with Barrett behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Cardinals have blown a 3-1 lead in a postseason series three times in their history (1968 World Series, 1985 World Series, and 1996 NLCS).

2. San Francisco has won each of Zito’s last 12 starts.

3. If St. Louis closes out the NLCS, the Cardinals will face the Tigers in a rematch of the 2006, 1968 and 1934 World Series.


MLB
Short Sheet

Friday, October 19

National League

NL Championship Series, Game Five (St. Louis Leads, 3-1)
San Francisco at St. Louis, 8:05 ET FOX
Zito: 2-7 career TSR vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Lynn: 20-4 TSR with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs

 

[CNOTES]

Friday, October 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 8:00 PM ET San Francisco +145 500

St. Louis - Over 7.5 500

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Dunkel

St. Louis at San Francisco
The Giants are coming off a 5-0 win on Friday and look to build on their 10-2 record in Ryan Vogelsong's last 12 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. San Francisco is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 21

Game 923-924: St. Louis at San Francisco (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.225; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 16.735
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under




MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 21

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ST LOUIS (95 - 78) at SAN FRANCISCO (99 - 73) - 7:35 PM
CHRIS CARPENTER (R) vs. RYAN VOGELSONG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 95-78 (-2.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 95-78 (-2.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 62-58 (-10.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 32-39 (-15.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CARPENTER is 2-9 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 99-73 (+19.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 99-73 (+19.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
VOGELSONG is 21-12 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 21-12 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 23-12 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 81-61 (+26.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off since 1997.
ST LOUIS is 55-40 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CARPENTER is 12-4 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-6 (+0.1 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

CHRIS CARPENTER vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
CARPENTER is 4-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.368.
His team's record is 6-3 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-5. (-1.6 units)

RYAN VOGELSONG vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
VOGELSONG is 2-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 5.75 and a WHIP of 1.417.
His team's record is 2-5 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-4. (-1.3 units)

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MLB
Short Sheet

Sunday, October 21

National League

NL Championship Series, Game Six (St. Louis Leads, 3-2)
St. Louis at San Francisco, 7:35 ET FOX
Carpenter: St. Louis 15-6 Over playing with rest
Vogelsong: 12-3 TSR after allowing 1 or 0 ER's last start




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 21

Carpenter is 1-3, 4.05 in five starts this year, giving up five runs (two earned) in four IP vs San Francisco in Monday's Game 2. He allowed two runs in five IP in only start against the Giants LY. He was 4-0, 3.25 in his six postseason starts LY. Vogelsong is 3-0, 1.86 in his last five starts, allowing one run in his seven IP in Game 2- he's allowed one run in 14 IP vs St Louis this year. San Francisco lost three of its last four home games; seven of their last ten games overall went over the total. Cardinals won seven of last ten road games; six of their last nine games overall went over the total.




MLB

Sunday, October 21

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Trend Report
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7:37 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games
San Francisco is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home


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MLB

Sunday, October 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NLCS betting preview: Cardinals at Giants
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants (-115, 6.5)

St. Louis leads series 3-2.

The St. Louis Cardinals have blown a 3-1 lead in a postseason series three times in their history, but they’re not thinking about that as they head west for the rest of the National League Championship Series. Instead, St. Louis is looking to rebound from a 5-0 loss in Game 5 that trimmed their series lead to 3-2 with Game 6 looming on Sunday. The San Francisco Giants proved they can win the hard way after taking three straight against Cincinnati to capture the NL Division Series, and they have Ryan Vogelsong and Matt Cain lined up to start the final two games of the NLCS. Pablo Sandoval has homered in each of his last two games, and he’s hitting .310 (13-for-42) with three home runs in 10 postseason games.

The Cardinals are seeking more offensive consistency after batting .198 through the first three games of the series and going 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position in Game 5. While Matt Holliday went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts on Friday, Carlos Beltran had a double and a stolen base after missing Game 4 with a strained left knee. The Giants are also hoping to get more production from the heart of their order, starting with MVP candidate Buster Posey, who is 3-for-18 with three walks in the NLCS. Hunter Pence and Gregor Blanco have both struggled this postseason, but manager Bruce Bochy has been reluctant to replace either outfielder with Xavier Nady. Pence is one of the Giants' clubhouse leaders, but he's hitting just .154 (6-for-39) in the playoffs.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 11 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (1-1, 1.86 ERA) vs. Giants RH Ryan Vogelsong (1-0, 1.50)

Carpenter is looking to redeem himself after allowing five runs (two earned) over four innings against the Giants in Game 2. Pence is 5-for-28 with seven strikeouts against Carpenter, who is 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco. Carpenter, who is one win shy of tying Greg Maddux and Curt Schilling for the fifth-most playoff victories in history (11), missed the first 150 games of the season with a right shoulder injury.

Vogelsong has been a pleasant surprise this postseason, posting a 1.50 ERA and allowing only seven hits in 12 innings over two starts. He gave up one run over seven frames in Game 2, and he threw seven scoreless innings in a 15-0 win at Busch Stadium on Aug. 8. Yadier Molina is 3-for-14 and Beltran is 6-for-13 with a home run against Vogelsong, who finished the regular season with a 0.53 ERA over his final three starts.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 8-0 in their last eight games following a loss.
* Giants are 4-1 in Vogelsong’s last five starts.
* Over is 5-0 in Cardinals’ last five playoff games as an underdog.
* Over is 8-0 in Giants’ last eight playoff home games.

UMP TRENDS- Jerry Layne:

* Over is 10-2 in Layne’s last 12 games behind home plate.
* Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 games with Layne behind home plate.
* Road team is 15-6 in Layne’s last 21 games behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Giants are looking to become the seventh team to win a League Championship Series after trailing 3-1 since the best-of-seven format was adopted in 1985.

2. Carpenter has started with a chance for his team to clinch a playoff series four times in his career, with the Cardinals going 3-1. He has a 1.93 ERA in those starts over 28 innings.

3. The Giants are 4-1 when scoring four or more runs in the postseason and 1-4 when scoring three runs or fewer.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday, October 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 7:30 PM ET San Francisco -114 500

San Francisco - Over 6.5 500

 

[CNOTES]

Cardinals & Giants Push NLCS To Decisive Seventh Game

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Preview
Date: 10/22/2012, 8:00 p.m. (ET) FOX
Opening Lines: Giants -140, O/U 7

Series So Far: San Francisco has battled back from a 3-1 deficit against the Cardinals to force Monday's deciding contest. The Giants got an outstanding performance from Barry Zito in Game 5 last Friday, a 5-0 whitewashing in St. Louis as +140 underdogs, and another solid effort from Ryan Vogelsong on Sunday night in a 6-1 victory. St. Louis has scored just one run in the last 19 innings and have been getting no help at all from the middle of the lineup as Matt Holliday, Allen Craig and David Freese are a combined 12-for-64 (.188 avg) in the series, and 3-for-20 (.150) in the last two losses. Pablo Sandoval and Marco Scutaro have been the offensive stars for the Giants, batting a collective .388 (19-for-49) in the NLCS with nine RBI between them.

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Lohse will make his fourth postseason appearance for the Cardinals while San Fran's Matt Cain gets the call for a fourth time this October. This is a rematch of the Game 3 battle at Busch Stadium that was delayed in the seventh inning for more than three hours before St. Louis eventually posted a 3-1 victory as $1.20 favorites. Lohse picked up the dubya in the NL Wild Card Playoff vs. Atlanta as well as Game 3 of the NLCS, and owns a 1.96 ERA in 18-1/3 playoff innings to date. Cain and the Giants are 1-2 in his three starts that have seen him tally a 4.67 ERA in just over 17 frames.

Odds & Ends: The Giants are 5-0 in elimination games this postseason while the Cardinals are 6-0 in the same situation dating back to the 2011 playoffs. NLCS crew chief Gary Darling will have plate duties for Game 7; the 25-year veteran was 20-17 'over' during the regular season, and worked Game 1 of this series which also went above the total.

 

[CNOTES]

Giants try to complete comeback in NLCS Game 7

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS


National League Championship Series Game 7 – Series tied 3-3
First pitch: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -140, St. Louis +130, Total: 7

Although the Cardinals once held a 3-1 lead in the NLCS, the Giants have battled back to tie the series up, with the seventh and deciding game occurring Monday night in San Francisco.

Matt Cain has been generally spectacular this year for the Giants, compiling a 17-7 record, 2.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. But he has not looked like himself in the 2012 playoffs—despite averaging 6.8 innings per start during the season, he has averaged just 5.8 during the playoffs with a 4.67 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in three starts. He has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, giving up four homers with at least one long ball in each of those three outings. He has never pitched well against the Cardinals in his career with a 2-4 record, 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Kyle Lohse is also amid a stellar season with a 2.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 18-3 record. Unlike Cain, however, he has gotten better in the postseason—in his three starts thus far, he has a 2-0 record and 1.96 ERA. That includes outpitching Cain earlier in this series, a 3-1 win for the Cardinals in Game 3. That give Lohse three straight wins over San Francisco, where he carries a 1.90 ERA. Take ST. LOUIS and the money to advance to the World Series.

This rare four-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Cardinals:

Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (ST. LOUIS) - revenging 2 straight losses where team scored 2 or less runs, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a winning record. (41-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.5%, +32 units. Rating = 4*).

A major concern for the Cardinals entering this game is the health of outfielder Matt Holiday (tightness in lower back), who appears unlikely to play. But that could be a blessing in disguise with the star posting a subpar .597 OPS so far this playoffs. He has particularly struggled against Cain in his career against—In 50 career plate appearances he is hitting just .186. Matt Carpenter has proven to be a stellar outfield sub this postseason with a .983 OPS in his 14 at-bats. That could help Lohse, who is 4-2 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in six career starts versus the Giants. Overall, Lohse is 4-0 in his past six starts dating back to September 18, posting a 2.65 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Play on him, especially as he is supported by a bullpen with a 2.22 ERA in the playoffs this year.

The Giants have won the past two games off their ability to silence the Cardinals bats, keeping them to a total of one run and 12 hits. But with Cain's struggles, that may be difficult to do, so a lot will fall on the offense that has tallied 11 runs over the past two games, but scores just 3.8 runs per game in their home ballpark. Cain has been tremendous at home this year though, going 8-4 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. And even though Cain hasn't been pitching particularly late into games lately, that should not be a problem for San Francisco, which has benefited from an extremely strong bullpen this postseason. Giants relievers have a 2.79 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in these playoffs. Cain has also shown the form in his career to be a great postseason pitcher—in his career he has a 2.09 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in six postseason starts after not allowing an earned run in 21.1 innings in the 2010 playoffs. Still, play against him as the favorite here.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Dunkel

St. Louis at San Francisco
The Cardinals look to bounce back from last night's 6-1 loss and build on their 13-3 record in Kyle Lohse's last 16 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. St. Louis is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 22

Game 927-928: St. Louis at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 16.776; San Francisco (Cain) 16.184
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+120); Over




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 22

Lohse is 2-0, 1.96 in three postseason starts this year; he put 12 men on base in 5.2 IP of Game 3, but only one of them scored- that was his only start this year against the Giants. Cain is 1-2, 4.43 in his last four starts, finishing sixth inning once; he is 1-2, 5.89 in three starts vs St Louis this year. San Francisco lost three of its last five home games; under is 7-3-1 in their last eleven games overall. Cardinals won seven of last 11 road games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten road games. St Louis scored 7-5-6 runs in its series wins; a total of two runs in the three losses. This is Game 7; managers will have lot shorter leash with the starting pitcher, if he struggles early.




MLB

Monday, October 22

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Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:07 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
St. Louis is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
San Francisco is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home

-----------------------------------------------------------


MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (95 - 79) at SAN FRANCISCO (100 - 73) - 8:05 PM
KYLE LOHSE (R) vs. MATT CAIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 95-79 (-3.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 42-46 (-8.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ST LOUIS is 95-79 (-3.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 58-52 (-6.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 62-59 (-11.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 32-40 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 100-73 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 168-103 (+62.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 100-73 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 63-41 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 23-13 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 55-41 (+14.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-6 (+1.1 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

KYLE LOHSE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LOHSE is 4-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.46 and a WHIP of 1.410.
His team's record is 4-2 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.3 units)

MATT CAIN vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
CAIN is 2-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.83 and a WHIP of 1.370.
His team's record is 3-6 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-4. (+0.2 units)

----------------------------------------------------------

MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, October 22

National League

NL Championship Series, Game Seven (Series Tied, 3-3)
St. Louis at San Francisco, 8:05 ET FOX
Lohse: 21-7 TSR off BB starts allowing 2 ER's or less
Cain: San Francisco 11-3 Under at home off BB games allowing 2 runs or less

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Monday, October 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NLCS Game 7 betting preview: Cardinals at Giants
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants (-138, 7)

Series is tied 3-3

The San Francisco Giants look to complete their second historic comeback of the postseason when they face the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series.

The Giants evened the series at three games apiece on Sunday with a 6-1 win behind seven strong innings from Ryan Vogelsong. San Francisco, which rallied from an 0-2 deficit to win the best-of-five NL Division Series, is seeking to become the seventh team to win an LCS after trailing 3-1 since the best-of-seven format was introduced in 1985. The Giants have won five straight when facing possible elimination during this postseason, but their 0-5 record in best-of-7 deciding games is the worst in major-league history.

The defending World Series champion Cardinals have won six straight winner-take-all games, and they’re hoping to have left fielder Matt Holliday available after he missed Game 6 with a back spasms. St. Louis has struggled to generate much offense this series, scoring just one run in its past 20 innings. The Cardinals’ defense has also been an issue, with several key errors contributing to an NLCS-record 10 unearned runs allowed.

The Giants have outscored St. Louis 10-1 in the last two games, and Marco Scutaro is leading the attack. The veteran second baseman is batting .458 (11-for-24) with five runs scored in the series, but the Giants are still waiting for Hunter Pence to produce in the middle of the order. Pence was 1-for-4 with three strikeouts on Sunday, and he’s 3-for-23 (.130) in the series. The Game 7 pitching matchup features the Giants’ Matt Cain against Kyle Lohse in a rematch of Game 3, when the Cardinals won 3-1.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for an 85 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow west at 13 mph earlier in the evening.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Kyle Lohse (1-0, 1.59 ERA) vs. Giants RH Matt Cain (0-1, 4.05)

Lohse will be looking to improve his control after allowing one run with five walks on 108 pitches over 5 2/3 innings in Game 3. Pence is 14-for-50 (.280) against Lohse, who is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three starts this postseason. Lohse was 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 33 starts and a career-best 211 innings during the regular season, and he’s 3-2 with a 3.78 ERA in five career starts against the Giants.

Cain didn’t allow an unearned run over 21 1/3 innings in the 2010 playoffs during the Giants’ World Series run, but he hasn’t been quite as sharp during this postseason. He’s 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in three starts after yielding three runs over 6 2/3 innings in Game 3. Carlos Beltran is 7-for-19 with a home run against Cain, who is 2-3 with a 4.94 ERA in eight career starts against St. Louis.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Francisco.
* Under is 5-2 in Cains last 7 starts vs. Cardinals.
* Cardinals are 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss.
* Giants are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home favorite.

UMP TRENDS - Gary Darling:

* Road team is 4-0 in Darlings last four games behind home plate.
* Home team is 16-7 in Darlings last 23 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
* Giants are 2-12 in their last 14 games with Darling behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Giants are 5-1 when scoring four or more runs in the postseason and 1-4 when scoring three runs or fewer. San Francisco is also 5-1 when scoring first this postseason.

2. St. Louis OF Jon Jay is batting just .184 (9-for-49) this postseason after going hitless in four at-bats in Game 6.

3. Giants C Buster Posey went 0-for-4 on Sunday and is 3-for-22 (.136) with no extra base hits and six strikeouts in the series.

 

[CNOTES]

2012 NLCS: 5 Reasons the St. Louis Cardinals Will Win the NL Pennant in Game 7

So here we go. Just as I assumed before the series began, the 2012 NLCS has become a seven-game classic. The matchup on paper favors the Giants as their ace Matt Cain faces Kyle Lohse.

But don't be fooled by first glances. In spite of how the lineup looks on paper, there are some keys that I feel will ultimately carry St. Louis into their second straight World Series.

Here first, is key No. 5...

Believe it or not, it does matter. For each team's perspective lineups (assuming Matt Holliday plays tomorrow night), there is no contest in Game 7 experience: St. Louis would has seven starters who have played in a Game 7 (only Pete Kozma hasn't played in one).

By contrast, the Giants have no one with experience in a Game 7. Not Pagan, not Scutaro, not Posey, not even Pence or Blanco. History says, it does matter. In four of the last five postseason game Game 7's, the team with the most experience has prevailed (only the '08 Rays buck that trend).

What this says is, in a one game, winner take all setting, the pressure is different from "lose or you go home." The stakes are high for both teams, which changes the degree with which the game is played. Expect both managers to make some earlier decisions than normal. Case in point...

Here's a hypothetical: Let's say that Kyle Lohse throws a ton of pitches and wriggles out of a jam or two. Would it surprise you at all if Mike Matheny turned to his bullpen early and didn't risk Lohse getting into a situation he couldn't get out of?

I could easily see that happening. As such, having Wainwright available to pitch could be huge. While he hasn't been great on the road this year (four-plus ERA), Wainwright was absolutely filthy against San Francisco in Game 4.

And while the Giants could counter with Tim Lincecum (though it is doubtful with Cain pitching) right now, the advantage in the long relief goes to the Cardinals. So it would behoove St. Louis to get ahead early.

The combined nine "regulars" (Matt Carpenter included) for St. Louis hit a combined 33-for- 112 lifetime against Matt Cain. That's a .295 batting average. What that means is the Cardinals will have their chances to score.

It also means a slight deficit won't have the same type of foreboding that falling behind Ryan Vogelsong did. Over the last two years, the Cardinals have been more than just resilient: They have been very good. Their championship resolve will get tested against an elite pitcher tomorrow night. Expect them to respond like champions.

Some people are just night owls. In 2012, that has certainly applied to Kyle Lohse. Of his 16 regular-season wins, 12 of them have occurred in night games. As a matter of fact, he is tangibly better at night than in the daytime.

Let's compare: During the day, Lohse was 4-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 2012. But at night, he was a sparkling 12-2 with a 2.56 ERA. His effectiveness seems to have continued as such in the postseason.

Against the Nationals, Lohse went seven strong innings in Game 4 in Washington, leaving with a 1-1 tie. That was a night game. In the midday against San Francisco in Game 3 of this series, Lohse wriggled like bait on a fishing hook, but escaped after 5.2 innings with just one run allowed.

It is not a reach at this point: The guy is appreciably better at night. The San Francisco sunset is at approximately 6:22 p.m. PST. If the Cardinals have a lead at that time, they will win the pennant. You heard it here first.

Ultimately, the deciding factor here is what I will call in an unoriginal manner: "Cardinals Magic." This team has whatever that "it" is supposed to be. This was never going to be an easy series. The Giants are in many ways, a mirror image of St. Louis. I said that before the series began as well.

So how do you make a decision when two teams are so evenly matched? For me, it is going to be recent history. The Giants have won their last three elimination games, all against the Reds. The Cardinals have won their last eight, against the Astros, Phillies, Rangers, Braves and Nationals.

In other words, it hasn't mattered what scenario, what the circumstances and what the adversity, this team has found a way to win. What I will say is, they better not find themselves playing from behind too long. That is on Kyle Lohse. As I have shown you earlier, I don't worry so much about that.

What it will come down to is this gritty bunch looking the Giants in the eyes, staring down perhaps the most hostile of their road crowds during this run, and doing it one last time. They have been down to their last game, last inning, last out and last strike multiple times during these last two years. And they have remained standing. With the chips down one last time, I will go with the champs until they are dethroned.

The Giants impress me. The Cardinals make me believe.

Whoever wins will have survived. This will not be a blowout, nor will it be given away. St. Louis may lose, but I will go on record as saying they won't hand the Giants the pennant.

The knee-jerk reaction is to assume a tight pitching duel. I think that is actually likely. The key will be Lohse duplicating his Game 3 escape act because I anticipate the Giants having base runners. If he is able to give the Cardinals 6-plus innings, that means they will be in prime position to win.

Conversely, the first two innings will go a long way towards determining what kind of night the offense has against Matt Cain. Jump on him early and get a run or two and St. Louis will be in great shape. It's winner take all, and the real winner is anyone watching. It is going to be a classic.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB Playoff Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/21/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/19/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% +*175 Detail
10/18/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/17/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/16/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/15/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/14/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2225 Detail
10/13/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1225 Detail
10/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1110 Detail
10/11/12 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*1220 Detail
10/10/12 5-*0-*1 100.00% +*2520 Detail
10/09/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*240 Detail
10/08/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1110 Detail
10/07/12 4-*4-*0 50.00% +*55 Detail
10/06/12 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail
10/05/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1610 Detail

Total: 35-20 63.63% +8576

Monday, October 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 8:00 PM ET San Francisco -133 500

San Francisco - Under 6.5 500