Cnotes NFL September Best Bets-Trends-Stats Etc !

[CNOTES]

Trends to Watch - September

August 26, 2014


It’s official. The pig is in the air.

That means it is now September and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and ‘trendsvestites’ alike.

Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of September. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

Remember, as the late, great Howard Cosell once said, “What’s right isn’t always popular. What’s popular isn’t always right.”

Play accordingly.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): The Detroit Lions have been fast starters at home with a 27-16 ATS record in the opening month of the season will play host to the New York football Giants (9/8) and Green Bay (9/21).

Keep an eye on (Bad): Here we have home teams that frustrate wagering home fans. Cincinnati is the worst of the bunch at a miserable 13-25 ATS and they will face Atlanta and Tennessee in Week’s 2 and 3.

Jay Gruden will attempt to break the negative cycle in Washington at 15-26 ATS when Jacksonville (9/14) and the Giants (9/25) arrive to face the team without an approved nickname any more.

Arizona will have two shots to better a 13-22 ATS record with San Diego in the desert on the opening Monday night and San Francisco 13 days later.

AWAY TEAMS

Bad: It has not mattered if Sam Bradford has been hurt or not or any other Rams quarterback for that matter, St. Louis has been a superior ‘play against’ road team at 14-29 ATS. Because of an early bye on this year’s schedule there is just one chance to bet against the Rams: at Tampa Bay (9/14).

Keep an eye on (Bad): This has been a mystery for years why Pittsburgh has been a bad bet at 14-27 ATS, never quite ready to begin the season. Let’s see how they do a short week at Baltimore (9/11) and 10 days later at Carolina.

As good as Detroit has been at home this month, that’s how bad they are away from home at 16-27 ATS. Keep a watchful eye on them at Carolina (9/14) and two weeks later in the New Jersey vs. the Jets.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): The defending NFL champions Seattle are moneymakers out of the gate at 27-15 ATS and should be favored all three times against very good competition, facing the Packers, at San Diego and a rematch with Denver in the first three weeks. Given the fact they are 17-1 SU and 13-5 ATS at home the past two seasons behind QB Russell Wilson they will be hard to fade at CenturyLink Field.

Bad: September has been a very bad month for several teams when listed as favorites. Let’s start with Carolina at 7-17 ATS and since they are lacking perimeter playmakers, they could be in trouble during the initial three weeks of the year being anticipated as favorites.

Most likely Arizona (7-16 ATS) will only be favored once and that is the opener with the Chargers. Presuming Sam Bradford can go, the Rams (12-24 ATS) are a Week 1 home favorite versus Minnesota, but Week 3 when Dallas is on the shores of the Mississippi River is up in the air right now.

Keep an eye on (Bad): As mentioned, the Bengals will have two home tilts and will be doling out points and with an 11-21 spread record in that role. You might have to look to the other side.

UNDERDOGS

Good: Especially in the Tony Romo era, betting against Dallas has been profitable. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been money as underdogs the first three to four weeks of the season at 23-10 ATS. While we don’t know for certain, there is a possibility the Boys could be dogs the entire month facing San Fran (9/7) at Tennessee (9/14), at St. Louis (9/21) and when Drew Brees and company comes to Big D on the final Sunday of September. Watch closely.

Bad: Pittsburgh’s pathetic road record has translated into crummy results as an underdog at 9-20 ATS. Those two away outings to visit the Ravens and Panthers could mean more ‘play against’ opportunities for NFL bettors.

DIVISION

Good: Kansas City has annually fared well against AFC West rivals early with a 22-11 ATS mark and makes the trip to Denver in Week 2 to see if they can make their good fortune continue.

Keep an eye on (Bad): If you think you have seen Cincinnati’s name a lot as a ‘play against’ squad in this treatise you are correct. And they fit again in AFC North action making the trip over to Baltimore on Sept. 7 with a 12-20 ATS record in division action.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 AFC Season Preview

August 20, 2014


2014 AFC Season Preview

Bronco Busting

Thanks largely to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, and according to coldhardfootballfacts.com, the average NFL game produced 46.82 points in 2013, breaking a largely unknown 65-year-old record for scoring productivity.

The previous mark was set back in 1948 when the average NFL game produced 46.48 points. Yes, you read that right… 1948.

That was when three of the NFL’s 10 teams in 1948 averaged more than 30 PPG. Just one of 32 teams in 2013 averaged more than 30 PPG – the record-setting Broncos.

And despite Denver’s record-shattering scoring mark in 2013 (37.88 PPG), it still ranked behind the 1950 L.A. Rams (38.83).

This side bar note: NFL kickers converted 86.5% of their field goal attempts in 2013. In 1948 they converted 40.9%.

Quick Outs

-- Houston QB’s Matt Schaub and Case Keenum combined for a 74.0 passer rating last season. It was 45.2 points lower than Philadelphia’s Nick Foles’ 119.2.

-- Denver led the league in point differential in 2013 at +207. Cincinnati and Kansas City tied for runner-up honors in the AFC at +125. Jacksonville was the league’s worst point differential squad at -202.

-- Denver’s Wes Welker and Jacksonville’s Cecil Shorts led the AFC in dropped passes in 2013 with 10 each. Chicago’s Brandon Marshall – surprise - led the league with 12 drops.

-- It’s a passing league today and with it the AFC owned the three worst rushing teams in the league last season, Baltimore (1,328), Jacksonville (1,260) and Pittsburgh (1,383). Not so coincidentally, all three teams miss the playoffs.

-- The AFC stands 87-108 SU and 91-97-8 ATS in non-conference clashes against the NFC the past three seasons. They have gone 115-78-2 ‘Over’ in those games.

AFC East Division

BUFFALO
TEAM THEME: A LONG, LONG TIME
Fifteen years, and counting… that's how long it's been since the Bills last made an appearance in the playoffs. They've also enjoyed just one winning season in the process. It’s no wonder owner Ralph Wilson finally said he'd had enough. After all, a 95-year old man can only take so much. The one upside to wallowing in mediocrity is the benefit of being able to replenish lousy talent with high draft choices. Last year's first-round pick, QB E.J. Manuel, assumed the starting duties and figures to improve with experience. He will have plenty of speedy receivers at his disposal with the Bills moving up to the 4th pick to grab the best receiver in the draft, Clemson's Sammy Watkins, to replace the departed Stevie Johnson. Watkins will team with 2nd-year wideouts Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin, along with free agent signee Mike Williams from Tampa Bay. RB's C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson return, while Buffalo added Bryce Brown from Philadelphia. Former 1st-rounders Mario Williams and Marcel Dareus anchor the defensive line, while the Bills have brought in Brandon Spikes from New England to shore up the linebacker corps. Will it be enough to get them over the hump? Only time will tell.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Eleven of Buffalo's last seventeen losses have been by 7 or less points.

MIAMI
TEAM THEME: IN A FLINCH
It's a sad state of affairs when the majority of coverage an NFL team gets during the season surrounds antics off the field. Such was life in Miami last season where the Richie Incognito scandal dominated headlines. After the bullying disaster, the Dolphins immediately canned GM Jeff Ireland and focused their attention on bookending the offensive line, signing stud LT Branden Albert from Kansas City and drafting Jawuan James out of Tennessee to play RT. They also added RB Knowshon Moreno to fill the hole at RB and stole LSU's Jarvis Landry in the draft to complement Mike Wallace and Bryan Hartline at WR, which should make QB Ryan Tannehill a happy man. FYI: contrary to rumors, Tannehill does not suffer from a flinching disorder. It's simply the aftereffect of being sacked a franchise-record 58 times last season. On the flip side, the defense has the chance to be very good if veterans like Cortland Finnegan and Louis Delmas can contribute as expected. Pass rusher Cameron Wake and CB Brett Grimes, Pro Bowlers each, have done more than most people expected, and now others need to step up in order for Miami to improve on last year's 8-8 mark. A soft schedule that features only five games against foes with winning records last year should keep the focus on the field – and the undercover cops at bay this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: From 1970-2003 Miami owned the league's best September home record (42-5). They own the 2nd worst record (4-11) since.

NEW ENGLAND
TEAM THEME: SILVER LININGS
As Steve Merril astutely points out in his 2014 NFL Preview for PLAYBOOK, the Patriots have been one of the most consistent teams over the last decade, winning the AFC East title five straight years, and in ten of the last eleven years overall. They managed to do so last year sans the services of a quality wide receiver, along with the Aaron Hernandez fiasco and all-world TE Rob Gronkowski missing most of the season with a torn ACL. All in all, it was arguably the best coaching job in Bill Belichick's fabled career. The Hoodie made a crafty off-season move bringing in shutdown corner Darrelle Revis to play along with the stellar young linebacker crew of Donta' Hightower, Jerod Mayo and Jamie Collins. With big Vince Wilfork seemingly recovered from an Achilles injury and the selection of DT Dominique Easley with their top pick in this year's draft, a long-time questionable defense could actually change direction this season. And as pointed out above, even in the worst of times, the offense has never been an issue for this team – not with Tom Brady calling signals and disgruntled Bill roaming the sidelines. It has, however, been 10 years since the Pats last tasted a Super Bowl victory. With neither coach nor quarterback able to look in the mirror without help from their hairdresser these days, expect an all-out push this season as the Pats go for their sixth straight division title and 12th in 14 years.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Patriots are 11-1 SU all-time (11-0 last eleven) in games versus the NFC North.

NEW YORK JETS
TEAM THEME: SPLASH EFFECT
On the heels of a 3rd-straight non-winning season, the Jets made quite a splash in free agency this offseason. It started when they acquired dog-killer QB Michael Vick from the Eagles. They also added WR Eric Decker from Denver and RB Chris Johnson from Tennessee. As a result, there’s a quarterback battle brewing between Vick and last year's starter, Geno Smith, with 6th round draft choice Tajh Boyd lurking somewhere in the background. While Vick is widely recognized as a human turnover machine, his numbers – in limited opportunity – pale in comparison to Smith, whose 12 TD’s and 21 INT’s paved the way to a non-descript 66.5 QB Rating. Hence, there is surely a QB war ahead in the Big Apple. "I said from Day One, Geno will be tough to beat...but I also said, Mike's going to have an opportunity to compete, and he will," insists Jets coach Rex Ryan. Call it what you may, we see more turnovers spilling out of MetLife this year than at a Sara Lee factory. And for Ryan, it's imperative he makes a dramatic U-turn sometime soon as three non-winning seasons in a row (22-26) don't hold water to the back-to-back championship game appearances the Flyboys served up during his first two years with the team in 2009-10.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Jets are 8-4 SU all-time vs. the NFC North.

AFC North Division

BALTIMORE
TEAM THEME: BAD BOYS
Just how bad did the Super Bowl Jinx affect the Ravens last season? When you lead the league in penalties with 126 for 1,196 yards, that's bad. When your starting quarterback tosses more interceptions than touchdown passes and finishes the season with a QB Rating (73.1) below Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt McGloin, that's bad. And when your star running back falls nearly 500 yards below his previous output – on 3.1 Yards Per Rush – that's bad. As a result, the Super Bowl ringleaders failed to even make it back to the postseason in 2013. A closer look, though, shows signs of a return to glory in the offing. For openers, last year's rebuilt OL figures to be much improved. There's lots of experience on defense – maybe too much as LB Terrell Suggs, NT Haloti Ngata and DE Elvis Dumervil could be past their prime years. But HC John Harbaugh injected some youth into the equation by going to the last two national champs for some new blood on defense, drafting SS Terrence Brooks and DT Timmy Jernigan from FSU and LB C.J. Mosley from Alabama. Speaking of two-deep, the Ravens have excellent depth everywhere along the ranks. A return to the norm by Flacco and Rice, along with an added infusion by the Smith bros (LB Daryl, CB Jimmy and WR's Steve and Torrey) will find the Black Birds on our play list this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Half (four) of the Ravens’ losses last season were by a field goal or less.

CINCINNATI
TEAM THEME: IT'S NOT EASY BEING ME
Talk about getting no respect, QB Rodney, err, Andy Dalton has led his team to the playoffs in each of his first three years in the league, winning 30 games in the process. And that total would be even higher had Dangerfield, err, Dalton not gone one-and-out in each of his postseason appearances. As such, the redheaded rifle continues to take a back seat to other Pro Bowl quarterbacks in the NFL. We look for that to end this year. This squad has a familiar look with Dalton throwing to A.J. Green and Marvin Jones, and talented RB’s Giovani Bernard and Benjarvis Green-Ellis carrying the football. Meanwhile, talented 2nd-round rookie Jeremy Hill (LSU) figures to challenge for playing time. One of the league's top defensive players that most fans never heard of, Vontaze Burfict (171 total tackles), and Rey Maualuga team to lead an active defense, while DT Geno Atkins will try to bounce back from a torn ACL (he still led the team in sacks despite missing half the season). The pass defense will be much improved with free agents Terrence Newman from Dallas and Reggie Nelson from Jacksonville joining Pac-Man Jones in the secondary, while Darqueze Dennard (1st-round draft choice from Michigan State) will break into the starting lineup sooner rather than later. If the Bengals look to be the team to beat in the AFC North, it's because they are.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: It's been 23 years since the Bengals last won a playoff game – the longest skein in the league.

CLEVELAND
TEAM THEME: UP TO SNUFF
It's been said this franchise chews through coaches like bubble gum. With Mike Pettine the 9th head coach since 1999, it's hard to argue. And while suffering 10 losses in ten of the last eleven seasons, they also tend to spit out quarterbacks faster than the man from Skoal. After going through seven starting QB's the last four years (including three last season), the Browns have officially cycled through 20 starting signal-callers since their rebirth in 1999 – plus 141 coaches and assistants. Or as long-suffering Cleveland fans put it best, ‘WTF.’ Brownstown was stoked when Cleveland selected Heisman winner Johnny Manziel in the first round of the draft this year. How excited was Johnny Football? “I'm going to pour my heart out for the Dawg Pound and try to win a Super Bowl for Cleveland. I don't care if they've had 20 starting quarterbacks since 1999. I'm going to be the 21st and the guy that brought them the Super Bowl.” He'll battle incumbent Brian Hoyer (3-0 SUATS with Cleveland), a local product, for the starting job. Meanwhile, a strong draft, crafty off-season signings and a renewed enthusiasm have new management off on solid footing. Yes, it's been a long time between drinks of winning water but this year's bunch has the look of thirst-quenchers.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The four-win Browns sent five players to the Pro Bowl last year.

PITTSBURGH
TEAM THEME: MUNCH ON THIS
Perhaps the best acquisition during the offseason was the signing of Hall of Fame OL coach Mike Munchak. It's for certain Big Ben is sleeping more these nights knowing his blocking schemes figure to better protect him. The human piñata has been sacked 386 times in his 10-year NFL career, leading to numerous injuries along the way. Roethlisberger welcomes new targets Lance Moore from the Saints and Darius Heyward-Bey from the Raiders. In addition, dynamic speedster Dri Archer, a 3rd round pick from Kent State, figures to be all over the field. Power back LaGarrette Blount comes over from New England to work alongside Le'Veon Bell, assuring a better-balanced attack in 2014. The defense, though, became a cause of concern when it slipped 61 YPG last season. Secondary veterans Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor, and William Gay figure to be great tutors to explosive 2nd-year man Jarvis Jones and the team's 1st round pick, LB Ryan Shazier of Ohio State. After a pair of 8-8 kiss-your-sister seasons in 2012 and 2013, Mike Tomlin will be chomping at the bit to get back to the playoffs – especially with eleven of the losses (five last year) coming by a touchdown or less. With the Steelers a stout 8-3-1 SUATS all-time in games against the NFC South, we won't bet against him.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: QB Ben Roethlisberger is 16-2 SU in his NFL career in games played at Ohio.

AFC South Division

HOUSTON
TEAM THEME: UPSIDE DOWN
In one of the most bizarre seasons in NFL history, Houston's football fortunes were turned upside down like a Texas twister last year. After back-to-back playoff appearances the prior two years, a puzzling 2-win season in 2013 finds HC Gary Kubiak and QB Matt Schaub out, with new HC Bill O'Brien and who-knows-who at quarterback in this season. After passing on Blake Bortles with the #1 pick of this year's draft, it appears Ryan Fitzpatrick will apparently get first crack at the starting QB position. Case Keenum, T.J. Yates and rookie Tom Savage (Pitt) will be the candidates if that doesn't work out. RB Arian Foster will again be the focus of the offense, hoping to catch more balls out of the backfield this year, while WR's Andre Johnson and emerging 2nd-year man DeAndre Hopkins hope one of the aforementioned QB's can somehow get them the football. The defense is strong, with J.J Watt leading the way up front, and top draft pick Jadaveon Clowney rushing from the other side. In addition, Brian Cushing is back from a serious knee injury and a broken leg that limited him to just seven games last season. It all looks good on paper, but so did a stat sheet that found them winning games by 29 YPG last year. Go figure.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Texans suffered nine losses by a TD or less last season, including five by a FG or less.

INDIANAPOLIS
TEAM THEME: STREAK OF LUCK
Proving his worth, Colts QB Andrew Luck inherited a 2-14 squad and turned them into playoff prodigies his first two years behind center with Indianapolis. And while it can be said he did it with smoke and mirrors (Indy was outstatted both seasons), the fact of the matter is he did it with several key players missing with injuries last year, including the services of star WR Reggie Wayne, who suffered a season-ending injury in Game Seven. Wayne is back from the injury list this season, along with TE Dwayne Allen and RB Vick Ballard. In addition, they've added talent in the form of Hakeem Nicks at WR to go with elusive T.Y. Hilton. There are problems on defense with Robert Mathis suspended for the first four games following his best season (19.5 sacks). It all points to a possible tough year for HC Chuck Pagano and DC Greg Manusky. The schedule maker comes to their aid, however, as the Colts take on the softest Strength of Schedule in the league, facing foes that owned a combined .430 win percentage overall, including .414 away. That's because only four foes on this year's itinerary owned winning records in 2013. We're not sure if it’s the luck of the draw or the skill of the quarterback, but one thing we know for sure: Indy is awfully lucky to have Andrew on their side.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Colts are 30-5 SU at home in division games since 2002.

JACKSONVILLE
TEAM THEME: JACKED UP FOR REAL
How important was the Bye Week for the Jaguars last season? We're not sure if it took that long for the team to buy into new coach Gus Bradley's schemes, or an embarrassing 1-20 skein – including a 13-game losing streak – factored into the equation, but the fact is these Cats were a different team thereafter. A 4-4 finish included three road wins, leaving Jacksonville in a positive state of mind for the first time in three years. The Jags are building for the future while they keep stockpiling talent… and getting there could happen a lot sooner than most people expect with QB Blake Bortles as the centerpiece of the new movement. RB Maurice Jones-Drew has departed for Oakland and will be replaced by former Viking workhorse, Toby Gerhart. While it appears WR Justin Blackmon is irreparable, one or more of the talented rookie crew could emerge: Marquise Lee (USC), Allen Robinson (Penn State), Damian Copeland (Louisville) and Allen Hurns (Miami). On defense, Paul Posluszny is back after finishing second in the NFL with 162 total tackles. In addition, Bradley used his past years at Seattle to attract DE's Red Bryant and DB Chris Clemons from the Super Bowl champs. Yes, the Jags are definitely moving in the right direction.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Jaguars are 11-1 ATS as road dogs with same-season revenge.

TENNESSEE
TEAM THEME: GEE WHIZ
When the Titans severed ties with Mike Munchak, a majority of those in upper management were torn. Munchak had served 14 years with the team as a loyal comrade: he was the O-line coach before assuming head coaching duties in 2011 when Jeff Fisher departed. A 5-year playoff famine was the inevitable determining factor. As a result, Munchak is out and former Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt is in. Whiz inherits a nice blend of talent with a squad that actually improved its numbers on both sides of the ball last year. Additionally, the Titans will square off against the 2nd softest schedule in the league overall (foes .433) while hosting the cushiest opponents (foes .416), with only one foe invading LP Field with a winning record from last year. Tennessee drafted monstrous OT Taylor Lewan #1 out of Michigan after selecting Alabama guard Chance Warmack with their top pick last year, solidifying the right side of their offensive line for years to come. Despite losing RB Chris Johnson to the Jets, the running game is in good hands with Shonn Greene, Dexter McCluster and star rookie RB Bishop Sankey. In addition, Whisenhunt brought in former sidekick Ray Horton to handle the defense. For a team that suffered six losses by 8 or less points last year, the playoff drought could be ending soon.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Titans are 9-1 SUATS as dogs versus the NFC East.

AFC West Division

DENVER
TEAM THEME: BEATING A DEAD HORSE
Q: When is a 35-point loss in the Super Bowl not as bad as it appeared? A: when you are outstatted by only 35 yards in a minus-4 turnover performance. Be that as it may, the Broncos left SB XLVIII with their tails dragging after Peyton Manning was held to 8 or fewer points for only the 8th time in 263 career games in the NFL. The Broncos quickly became busy in free agency, picking up DeMarcus Ware from Dallas on the defensive line and CB Aqib Talib from New England. Along with returning star LB Von Miller, the defense immediately went from mediocre to good. There are several question marks about Miller, however, as a six-game drug suspension started last season, followed by weight gain upon his return and some erratic play, then an early end to the season with a torn ACL. The Broncos also must survive some losses, but a cast of veteran receivers, including Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and TE Julius Thomas – along with a stellar offensive line that remains nearly intact – and you now know why Denver is favored by most to return to the Super Bowl. We're unlike most, however, as the dreaded 'Super Bowl loser jinx' is affixed squarely to their backs. And to that we say, “riders up.”

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Denver is 2-7 SU and ATS versus the NFC West, including 0-4 SU and ATS the last four.

KANSAS CITY
TEAM THEME: THE PAIN CLINIC
Andy Reid proved to be the elixir needed to take the Chiefs from their losing ways straight to the playoffs when Kansas City became only the 2nd team other than 1980 Denver to start a season 5-0 after going 2-14 the previous year. After stretching the start to 9-0, the Featherheads went 2-5 thereafter before choking like Greg Norman at the Masters in a 45-44 loss to the Colts in the playoffs – a game they actually led 38-10 in the 3Q. So what do they do for an encore after last year's painful fall from grace? Aside from being forced to rebuild the O-line, KC must face the toughest home Strength of Schedule in the league, with foes owning a .570 win percentage last season. That being said, don't look for anything close to last year's liftoff as, after opening with a home game against the Titans, the Chiefs go on the road to Denver, Miami and San Francisco for three of the next four, with a Monday-nighter against the Patriots squeezed into the middle. A winning record going into the Bye Week – and at season's end – would be quite an accomplishment. Meanwhile, two players from this year's draft look to contribute: RB De'Anthony Thomas, who fits into the mold of the departed Dexter McCluster as special teams return man and part-time slot receiver, and QB Aaron Murray, who looks to be the Chiefs signal-caller of the future.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Chiefs are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last ten games vs. NFC West opponents.

OAKLAND

TEAM THEME: DOUBLE TROUBLE
For some reason, the Raiders seem to enjoy doing things in pairs: back-to-back 4-12 seasons the last two years, preceded by 8-8 campaigns the prior two seasons, and two 5-11 efforts before that. They have also lost eight games by double-digit margins each of the past two seasons. What better way to break the pattern than to bring in the Pick-6 King – Matt Schaub – to quarterback this year's team. Compounding matters, Oakland will take on the most difficult strength of schedule in the league with 11 games against winning teams. As a result, the Raiders hit the free agent market hard. The question is, are they a bunch of guys that nobody wanted, or will they use the rejection to motivate them into showing they have something left? Newcomers on offense include the likes of Schaub, WR’s James Jones and Greg Little, plus RB Maurice Jones-Drew, along with several offensive linemen. The defensive pick-ups are a little more exciting: Lamarr Woodley, Justin Tuck, Antonio Smith and CB Carlos Rogers. Again, do any of these guys have anything left in the tank? The best new name could be top draft pick LB Khalil Mack out of Buffalo, who looks like a can't-miss prospect. With rookie QB Derek Carr battling Schaub, it would be no surprise to find a two-headed quarterback situation in Oakland this year. So what else is new?

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Raiders are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS vs. opponents off a pair of losses by 7 or more points each.

SAN DIEGO
TEAM THEME: DOWNSTREAMING
After a successful 10-win playoff campaign last season the Chargers are another team that pretty much ignored the free agent market, picking up Donald Brown of the Colts to join the mix of Ryan Matthews, Danny Woodhead, and a couple of rookies, Marion Grice of Arizona State and Branden Oliver of Buffalo in a crowded backfield. The other significant signing was Kellen Clemens from the Rams to backup Philip Rivers at quarterback. Rivers rebounded superbly off a pair of lackluster seasons the previous two years, as his 105.5 QB Rating last season was 2nd only to Peyton Manning among starters with at least 12 starts. A lot of what happens this year, of course, depends on the mercurial Rivers, but the receiving corps is solid, as is the defense, and as a whole this team absolutely loves HC Mike McCoy. The top draft pick, CB Jason Verrett of TCU, has a good chance to step in as a starter alongside veterans Eric Weddle and Marcus Gilchrist. It will be interesting to see how the Chargers respond after losing OC Ken Whisenhunt (new Titans head coach) considering the offense improved a whopping 84 YPG last season. This much we know for sure: San Diego's record has regressed each year seven times in a row since 1982 after winning 10 or more games the previous season. Stay tuned.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Philip Rivers is 30-6 SU during the month of December in his NFL career.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 NFC Season Preview

August 25, 2014


2014 NFC Season Preview

The Times Are A Changing

The NFC has long been the stepchild conference in the NFL … until lately.

Looking back, since 1990 the AFC holds a 757-712-3 SU and 722-698-52 ATS edge over the NFC in head-to-head non-conference competition. Over the last three years, however, the NFC is closing ground – fast.

That’s confirmed by a flip-flopped 87-108 SU and 90-97-8 ATS mark by the AFC over the NFC in these contests over the last three seasons.

Initial thought was a lot of the recent numbers correlate to the recent uprising of the NFC West. Not true. The NFC South has actually held the upper hand the past three seasons in these non-conference clashes, sporting a division best 30-18 SU and 26-21-1 mark.

The NFC West is right behind the South at 30-20 SU and 28-19-3 ATS. Meanwhile, the slowly deteriorating NFC East brings up the rear at 22-27 SU and 21-27-1 ATS in these matchups.

Over Blown

Speaking of non-conference tilts, the high-scoring NFL last season set a benchmark record in these games in the Over/Under totals.

Games involving these two opposite conference foes went 50-15 ‘OVER’ the in head-to-head competition.

Games in which the Over/Under total was set at 41 or fewer points flew ‘OVER’ 14 of the 16 times.

Quick Outs

-- Since the American Professional Football Association became the National Football League in 1922, the Chicago Bears are the only team not to change its name or city.

-- The Dallas Cowboys haven’t played in Dallas since 1971.

-- The St. Louis Rams were the first team in the league to use logos on their helmets.

NFC East Division

DALLAS

TEAM THEME: TICK, TICK, TICK…
This much we know for sure about Jerry Jones. If he didn't have a strong ticker, he would be sitting alongside Tom Landry watching Cowboys games from afar. It wasn't bad enough for Jones to endure three consecutive 8-win seasons in which 15 of the 24 losses came by a touchdown or less – including an astonishing five losses by a field goal or less last year. JJ was also forced to live through the discomfiture of knowing a win in any of the last three season finales would have resulted in a playoff berth. Talk about taxing the heart. The question begs: how long will he keep head coach Jason Garrett on the sidelines? Dallas' woes are certainly not the fault of the offense. It's the defense that keeps Jones up at night popping nitroglycerin. Ranked dead-last in the league in 2013, crippling news came on the first day of the OTA's this spring when LB Sean Lee, the leader of the defense, injured his knee. Coupled with the departure of Pro Bowl DE Demarcus Ware to Denver, a cardiologist is standing by. With reliable TE Jason Witten back as one of Tony Romo's favorite targets, the QB's full recovery from surgery on a herniated disk is imperative. As bad as Romo's injury was, it's clearly better than the triple bypass Jones has avoided the last few years.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys are 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS in Game Sixteen since 2000, the worst in the NFL.

NEW YORK GIANTS

TEAM THEME: 39 STEPS
When your season starts atop a banana peel, there is little else one can do other than to prepare for the fall. And fall they did. Mightily. A 0-6 start for the first time since 1976 put the Giants in a hole from which they were never able to recover. So how is it, you ask, that a team who improved its defense 50 YPG on the season missed out on the playoffs? Just ask QB Eli Manning, who endured a career-high 39 sacks last year, requiring ankle surgery in the off-season. Consequently, he tossed a league-high 27 INT’s while finishing the season with a career-low 69.4 QB Rating. The results were an offense that slipped 48 YPG. To help shore things up on the attack side, New York selected WR Odell Beckham (LSU) with its 1st-round pick in this year's draft. He'll certainly push Victor Cruz and recently re-acquired Mario Manningham for starting honors. On the defensive front, Tom Coughlin picked up Walter Thurmond from the Super Bowl champs and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie from Denver, but will need a return to form from Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5 sacks in 2011). Rest assured, Eli was busy viewing plenty of film in the off-season. For what it's worth, don't offer up a viewing of Alfred Hitchcock's classic, ‘The 39 Steps’ to Manning anytime soon. He'll likely run for cover.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Giants are 1-6 ATS all-time as favorites vs. the AFC South.

PHILADELPHIA

TEAM THEME: SOMETHING SPECIAL IN THE AIR
As promised, the Eagles came with everything they had en route to winning 10 games in Chip Kelly’s NFL debut last season. Aside from setting franchise records on offense for points, TD’s and total yards, Philadelphia's questionable defense also managed to hold two foes (Chicago and Detroit) to season-low yards late in the season. Imagine what happens if continued improvement is met on both sides of the ball this year? First-round pick DE Marcus Smith was an outstanding pass rusher at Louisville, and should make the transition to LB in Kelly's 3-4 defense. The offense brings in WR’s Jordan Matthews and Josh Huff (former Kelly pupil from Oregon), high picks in this year's draft for emerging QB Nick Foles – who lit up the airwaves with the top QB Rating in the league last year (119.2) on 29 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Along with the return of Jeremy Maclin, who missed all of 2013 with a torn ACL after posting three straight seasons of over 800 yards receiving, DeSean Jackson's departure should prove to be a moot point by season's end. Add in dynamic Darren Sproles for a change of pace in the backfield with superstar LeSean McCoy, and Kelly's offense should be more prolific than ever. When it comes to preparing a game plan, no coach in the league is more thorough than the frenetic Kelly. The man never tires.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chip Kelly is 20-1 SU away versus either college conference or NFL division foes in his career.

WASHINGTON

TEAM THEME: RG YEAR III
Like the Browns, the Redskins cycle through head coaches like Lance Armstrong manufactures lies, with Jay Gruden the 9th new Washington coach since 1999. It's what happens when you've had only three winning seasons post 1999. And it's what happened to Mike Shanahan after going 24-40 in his tenure with Dan Snyder. Last year's drop-off (from 10 wins to 3) was dramatic, yet understandable. RGIII hit the sophomore wall before bowing out with another knee injury after 13 games – while the team coughed up 34 turnovers as opposed to 16 in 2012. A season-ending 8-game losing streak was the topper, especially given the fact they actually outgained foes 22 YPG in the process. No one works harder than Griffin, the 2012 Rookie Of The Year, who poured in many hours during the offseason to fine-tune his game. If Griffin is right, Gruden can expect the passing game to be back on track with newly acquired DeSean Jackson lining up opposite Pierre Garcon, and the return from injury of emerging TE Jordan Reed. The defense is led by Brian Orakpo at OLB, while Jason Hatcher comes over from Dallas to join Barry Cofield on the defensive line after recording 11 sacks last season for the Cowboys. Should it all come together, look for the Hogs to be sneaky-good in a tough-as-nails division in 2014.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Redskins last division title was in 1999.

NFC North Division

CHICAGO

TEAM THEME: AFTER THE LOVIN'
With sophomore head coach Marc Trestman now firmly entrenched in the Windy City, he'll be hoping to do exactly what his predecessor, Lovie Smith, did in his 2nd year on the job – take his team to the playoffs. Anything less will be a disappointment for a team that has averaged more than 9.5 wins per season the last nine years. To do so, the Bears will need to do a better job down the stretch as they’re just 6-12 SU and 5-12-1 ATS during the final six games of the season the last three years. It all starts with the defense, one that slipped dramatically last season (-80 YPG). As a result, out goes Julius Peppers; in comes DE Jared Allen from Minnesota and LB D.J. Williams from Denver. On the other side of the ball, the offense improved 72 YPG and welcomes back the entire OL that started all 16 games last year. The pieces are in place, should they stay healthy. And speaking of which, what to do should oft-injured QB Jay Cutler become sidelined once again? Watch David Fales from San Jose State, Chicago's 6th round choice in this year's draft. The word is QB guru-coach Terry Shea insists Fales has all the tools and is the real deal. Remember, you read it here.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bears are 14-6 SU in their first four games of the season since 2009.

DETROIT

TEAM THEME: THE SAME OLD SONG
For the second-year in a row, the Lions managed to dominate in the stats, yet end the season on the losing side of the ledger. Despite the statistical anomaly, Jim Schwartz was dispatched (now DC at Buffalo) in favor of Jim Caldwell, former Colts boss. Caldwell is widely recognized as a quarterback guru, having worked with Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco among others. Lions QB Matthew Stafford figures to benefit from Caldwell's tutoring. And with Detroit having slowly built a competitive team by developing its No.1 draft choices over the years, this outfit could well be a sleeper. Looking back, the Lions have stockpiled the likes of WR Calvin Johnson in 2007, Stafford and TE Brandon Pettigrew in 2009, along with defensive linemen Ndamakong Suh, Nick Fairley and Ziggy Ansah in three of the previous four drafts – not to mention stud LT Riley Reiff in 2012. Add in this year's top pick TE Eric Ebron from North Carolina, who could be a major contributor almost immediately in the Lions' two-tight end sets, and the talent is there. Toss in an offensive line that returns intact, along with a healthy RB in Reggie Bush, and just like that this could be the year of the Lion in the NFC North. Then again, this song has been sung over and over in recent years.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lions will host only one team this season that owned a winning record last year.

GREEN BAY

TEAM THEME: ON THE MEND
Quick. Fill in the blank: Aaron Rodgers is to the Packers is what [blank] was to the Colts. Whether you answered Peyton Manning or Johnny Unitas, you get the picture. Much like Indianapolis' massive descent in 2011 when they went from a 12-time playoff squad to a 2-win team when Manning was injured and forced to miss the season, Green Bay got a taste of the same thing last season when Rodgers broke his collarbone in Game Eight of the campaign. After a 2-5-1 SU and 1-7 ATS slide, Rodgers returned to lead his troops to a season-ending, playoff clinching victory… keeping a 4-year playoff streak intact. Rodgers returns and with it, the Packers become the favorite to capture NFC North honors this season. Also returning from the injury list, on the other side of the ball, is stud LB Clay Matthews. Joining Matthews this year is perennial Pro Bowler Julius Peppers. Along with top draft pick FS Ha Ha Clinton Dix (can't wait to hear Marv Albert call that one…), Green Bay is making a concentrated effort to shore up its stop troops, knowing full well that 'defense' is a considered a foreign language inside this division. In other words, he who plays it best will likely capture the division crown.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: From 1939-2001 the Packers were 13-0 SU at home in playoff games. They've gone 2-5 since.

MINNESOTA

TEAM THEME: ZIM AND VIGOR
When the Vikings showed Leslie Frazier the door and inked former Cincinnati DC Mike Zimmer as their new boss, little did the spirited coach realize what he was biting off. Inheriting the worst scoring defense in the league (30.0 PPG) and a team that coughed up more than 400 yards on ten different occasions last year, Zimmer sees the cup as half-full. His blunt demeanor – he called Bobby Petrino a “gutless bastard” – was called out on HBO's 'Hard Knocks' during his stay with the Bengals. He lives by a great quote from Vince Lombardi, who said, “'If you grab your players' hearts, they'll follow you anywhere.” To which Zimmer says, "That's what I want to do. I want to grab these players' hearts and get them to follow me." Leading the charge will be star RB Adrian Peterson, who appears to be back in top form after suffering a myriad of injuries last year. He spearheads an offense that has seen its stats improve steadily each of the last three years. The biggest question mark is who will be behind center? It appears that Matt Cassel will get the nod at QB – at least to start the season – as Christian Ponder seems to have worn out his welcome, with rookie Teddy Bridgewater awaiting his turn. Meanwhile, the defense has a new look after losing stud DL Jared Allen.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Vikings will face only three teams that owned a winning record last season.

NFC South Division

ATLANTA

TEAM THEME: BIRDS IN FLIGHT
What a difference a year makes, especially to an injury-riddled NFL squad. QB Matt Ryan will have his full contingent of wideouts in place to start 2014, as Julio Jones returns from a foot injury that limited him to just five games last year. Meanwhile, Harry Douglas had a breakout season in his place, and the pair will join veteran Roddy White for the Falcons' receiving corps. The missing piece, of course, is TE Tony Gonzalez, who will now be in the CBS studio post-retirement. Steven Jackson was also limited by injuries last season, rushing for just 543 yards in 12 games, and could be pushed at some point by rookie Devonta Freeman out of Florida State. After picking up Osi Umenyiora from the Giants before last season, Mike Smith added to his defensive line during this offseason by grabbing free agents Paul Soliai from Miami and Tyson Jackson from KC before nabbing DT Ra'shede Hageman in the draft. But the biggest addition for the Dirty Birds might have been 1st-rounder Jake Matthews, who should step into the starting lineup immediately at RT. With seven losses coming by 7 or less points last season, and both Matty Ice and head coach Mike Smith in off their first-ever losing season since pairing up six years ago, the Falcons have the look of a mission team ready to fly. And to help matters, a soft non-conference slate features only two foes with winning records last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons are 19-6 ATS at home with revenge under Mike Smith.

CAROLINA

TEAM THEME: CAM-O-FLAGE
Coming off a successful 12-4 campaign, you would expect most of last year's look to be the same, but you would be wrong. Sure, the offensive backfield will have a familiar feel, with QB Cam Newton back after off-season surgery, and some combination of DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert toting the football. But while Greg Olson is back at TE, the rest of the offensive line is in complete flux, and Ron Rivera may have to employ LSU rookie G Trai Turner in the starting lineup. That's not to mention the Greg Hardy domestic mess turning into a PR disaster. Newton's receiving corps will be made up of free agents Jericho Cotchery and Jason Avant replacing Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell, plus FSU rookie Kelvin Benjamin working into the mix at some point. Defensively, Luke Kuechly is all over the field and is now one of the very best in the game. But who knows if Hardy (aka The Kraken) can settle his legal issues before the season gets underway? Rest assured, these Cats will look to rely on a stop-unit that ranked No. 2 in scoring defense (15.1 PPG) last year. Will it be enough to put them in back-to-back playoff years for the first time ever in franchise history? We think not.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: No team has ever repeated as division champion since the inception of the NFC South in 2002.

NEW ORLEANS

TEAM THEME: THE BEIGNETS ARE BACK
This is one of those teams that looks virtually the same as last year, and if you're a Saints fan that's a good thing. While rebounding from seven wins in 2012 to twelve victories last season, New Orleans made a dramatic reversal of fortune where it counted the most – on defense. New DC Rob Ryan's schemes met with a startling 139 YPG improvement. And to illustrate the impact Ryan had, the Saints' defense allowed ZERO opponents to gain season-high (or 2nd high) yardage last year, as opposed to coughing up the same number 11 times in 2012. To top it off, free agent DB Champ Bailey and 3-time Pro Bowl safety Jairus Byrd from the Bills have been added to shore up Ryan's secondary. On the flip side, 35-year old Drew Brees is getting longer in the tooth these days but instead of age, we see a savvy, experienced veteran primed to make a super run in 2014. An improved offensive line and a new toy in 1st-round pick WR Brandin Cooks (led the nation with 133 YPG at Oregon State last year) will help Brees forget about counting candles on his cake. With a schedule that finds none of their first seven opponents sporting a winning record last year, and only one of their eight road games against a winning opponent, look for the Saints to make a big push for conference honors this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Teams are 4-22 SUATS between the threes (+3 to -3) in games after facing the Saints since 2010.

TAMPA BAY

TEAM THEME: LOVIN' IT
When last season ended, the Bucs gave the boot to HC Greg Schiano and brought in Lovie Smith. And with him comes a new recipe for success. That's because, after a 5-11 season in his first season with Chicago in 2004, Lovie's Bears averaged almost 10 wins per season thereafter. Coming over with Smith is former Chicago backup QB Josh McCown, whose 13 TD's and 1 INT last season earned him a sparkling QB Rating of 109.0. He'll look to spark an offense that gained the fewest amount of yards in the league (2,820) last season. Also back is RB Doug Martin who, after a monster rookie campaign in 2012, will attempt to make a comeback from a torn labrum that ended his season last year after just six games. The receiving corps should be large and in charge, as 6'5” draft choices Mike Evans (Texas A&M) and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Washington) join veteran Vincent Jackson in the aerial attack. New DC Leslie Frazier loses CB Darrelle Revis but welcomes back LB Lavonte David, who has become one of the NFL's top defensive players with 219 solo tackles in his first two seasons. A soft schedule featuring only three opponents with winning records last year paves the way for a new love-in by the Bay beginning this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Teams who finished last, or tied for last, have won the NFC South 11 years in a row the following season.

NFC West Division

ARIZONA

TEAM THEME: HEADED TO THE PROMISED LAND
After surprising the league with 10 wins in his first season with the Cardinals last year, Bruce Arians will be looking to buck a bit of history in 2014. That's because the last three times the Arizona managed to avoid a sub .500 season, they reverted back to their losing ways each year thereafter – going 5-11, 4-12 and 6-10. So what's in the cards for the Cards this season, you ask? It all starts with Arians, a starting QB at Virginia Tech and former offensive coordinator with both Alabama and the 2008 Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, who infused life into a lethargic offense and is promising even more 2014. Not finished there, he immediately went to work in the offseason repairing the secondary with 1st-round SS Deone Bucannon and free-agent signee Antonio Cromartie. Playing alongside Patrick Peterson instantly upgrades the defense. If dangerous Tyrann Mathieu can also return from the serious knee injury that ended his breakout rookie season, the secondary will be a source of pride. Coincidentally, Zona's new-look offense improved 83 YPG, cracking the 400-yard plateau for the first time since 2009 (four times). Along with a defense that was 21 YPG better last year than in 2012, we say move over Seattle and San Fran, there's a new guy in the neighborhood and in these parts they call him the Boss. B-R-U-C-E…

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Arians is 16-3 SU and 15-2-2 ATS as an NFL head coach versus sub .600 opponents.

ST. LOUIS

TEAM THEME: A NEW LISTING
After taking over a team in 2012 that averaged three wins a season the previous five years, Jeff Fisher has clearly brought the Rams back to respectability, despite residing in the challenging NFC West. However, respectable doesn't cut it in the Fisher household. Not for a coach that has suffered only seven losing seasons in 18 full years as a head coach in the NFL. After winning the NFC West in 2012, St. Louis tumbled to 1-5 in the division last year. With that, Fisher went to work, putting together a huge draft this spring. Two 1st-rounders should start immediately as Greg Robinson will bookend the offensive line opposite Jake Long, while Aaron Donald should jump right in at defensive tackle. In addition, two other selections should contribute sooner rather than later in CB LaMarcus Joyner from FSU and RB Tre Mason from Auburn. With QB Sam Bradford out for the season with a torn ACL, Shaun Hill is first in line as his replacement. And while the Rams’ receiving contingent is small, Chris Givens, Austin Pettis and Tavon Austin are lightning-quick and can certainly stretch the field. Aside from life without Bradford, the biggest hurdle this year will be taking on the 3rd toughest strength of schedule in the league, with no less than 10 games against foes that finished with a winning record last season. It's what comes from living in the high-priced neighborhood they do.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rams are 1-31 SU and 7-25 ATS as division home dogs of 3 or more points.

SAN FRANCISCO

TEAM THEME: GOLD DIGGERS
Okay, before we begin here's another of our famous bar bets guaranteed to have your designated-driver working overtime: name the only two teams in the NFL that ran more plays than they passed last year. If you guessed San Francisco and… Seattle… you're a winner! Of course, a good part of the answer lies in the legs of each team's quarterback, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson, who are scramblers supreme. Once again, Kaepernick has a wealth of veteran talent to work with as Stevie Johnson (Buffalo) and Brandon Lloyd (New England) join standout receivers Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin. And that doesn’t even include star TE Vernon Davis – nor did we mention rookie WR Bruce Ellington. Same story at RB where the 1-2 punch of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter has been entrenched for several seasons, but could be challenged by 2014 2nd-round draft choice Carlos Hyde and the possible return to health of Marcus Lattimore, who sat out last season with the knee injury he suffered in his last year at South Carolina. Star LB Patrick Willis and DE Justin Smith headline a defense that's been Top 10 every year since Jim Harbaugh's arrival. Yes, there sure is a lot to like about the Niners as, according to Aldon Smith, this team is loaded… in more ways than one.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last time San Francisco won a Super Bowl was 20 years ago.

SEATTLE

TEAM THEME: TAG, YOU'RE IT
It can be said that Super Bowl champions are often built by giving up future luxuries in order to win right now… such is the case with the Seahawks. Their first draft pick in this year's draft was #45 after trading down, and they had just three of the first 108 selections. Will it affect this year’s talent-laden roster? Hardly, as there are not many weak links to be found. It's hard to feel sorry for a defense that has three Pro Bowlers returning in the secondary, and an offensive attack that adds a playmaker to the full-time lineup in perennial Pro Bowler Percy Harvin, who missed most of the season. The 12th man should be ready to raise some hell once again, especially after winning 17 of 18 home games the past two seasons. But before he prepares to lose his voice, it should be noted that Super Bowl winners have had a tough row to hoe the following year – just ask the Ravens and Giants the past two seasons – as they become the top priority game on each opponent's schedule. Then there's a murderous slate to tackle, the 7th toughest Strength of Schedule in the league against foes .556 overall and .575 away, including six road foes that won 10 or more games in 2013. Let's see what happens in 2014 to a team that led the league in net TO's (+27) last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Seahawks are 1-23 SU away vs. .666 or greater AFC West opponents, including 18 losses in a row.

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet

August 27, 2014

Rays at Orioles – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
TB: Smyly (8-10, 3.42 ERA)
BAL: Gausman (7-5, 3.81 ERA)

Series recap: The Orioles bounced back after getting swept by the Cubs, as Baltimore has taken the first two games of this set. Following a 9-1 rout in Monday’s opener, the Orioles held off the Rays on Tuesday, 4-2 as short favorites, as Baltimore has won five of the past eight meetings against Tampa Bay.

What to watch for: Tampa Bay owns an impressive 8-1 record in its last nine Game 3’s of a road series, as this series concludes on Thursday. In four starts since joining the Rays’ rotation, Drew Smyly has cashed the ‘under’ all four times, while not allowing a run in his last two road outings. The Orioles are a perfect 6-0 in Kevin Gausman’s six night starts this season, while the right-hander has split a pair of outings against Tampa Bay.

Yankees at Tigers – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
NYY: Greene (3-1, 3.17 ERA)
DET: Price (12-9, 3.00 ERA)

Series recap: The Yankees saw their five-game winning streak disappear in Tuesday’s opener at Detroit in a 5-2 setback. New York played in its third different city in three days after winning a make-up game at Kansas City on Monday, while the Tigers improved to 2-3 this season against the Yankees.

What to watch for: The Tigers have compiled a 2-2 record in David Price’s four starts since coming over from the Rays, with one of those victories coming in the Bronx, 4-3 in extra innings. Detroit owns a 6-2 record in its last eight Game 2’s of a home series, while going 8-1 this season after winning the opener of a series at Comerica Park. Since the All-Star break, the Yankees have won all four road starts made by Shane Greene, as the right-hander tossed eight shutout innings the last time he faced the Tigers in a 1-0 victory.

Braves at Mets – 7:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
ATL: Teheran (12-9, 2.96 ERA)
NYM: Wheeler (9-8, 3.48 ERA)

Series recap: The Mets found a way to edge the Braves last night, 3-2 even without David Wright and David Murphy in the lineup. New York has won five of the past six home meetings against Atlanta, as the Mets cashed on Tuesday as +140 underdogs.

What to watch for: The Braves are 2-3 in Julio Teheran’s previous five road starts, which includes an 8-3 setback at Citi Field as -145 favorites in early July. Since July, the Mets have won seven of Zack Wheeler’s last nine starts, with the only two losses coming in walk-off fashion by one run each. Wheeler has seen plenty of success against the Braves at home in his short career, winning all three times, each in the underdog role.

Indians at White Sox – 8:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
CLE: Kluber (13-7, 2.46 ERA)
CHW: Noesi (7-9, 4.86 ERA)

Series recap: The White Sox dropped their seventh straight game after falling in extra innings to the Indians, 8-6 as -150 home favorites. Chicago erased an early 3-0 deficit by grabbing a 6-5 lead, but the Indians scored two runs in the top of the 10th inning to win their third consecutive contest.

What to watch for: For the first time since late June, Corey Kluber suffered a loss in his last start, a 4-1 defeat at Minnesota as a -135 road favorite. The Indians have dropped two of Kluber’s three outings against Chicago this season, as the right-hander struck out a career-high 13 in a 4-3 setback on May 4 in which the Cleveland bullpen allowed three runs in the ninth inning. Hector Noesi saw a four-game home winning streak in his starts snapped against Baltimore in his past trip to the mound, as the right-hander allowed six runs in a 7-4 defeat at Progressive Field in mid-July.

Brewers at Padres – 9:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
MIL: Gallardo (8-7, 3.38 ERA)
SD: Despaigne (3-5, 3.44 ERA)

Series recap: The Brewers routed the Padres in Monday’s opener, 10-1 as -140 favorites, but followed that performance up with a clunker last night. San Diego cruised past Milwaukee, 4-1 as short favorites, as the Padres improved to 11-2 in their past 13 games at Petco Park.

What to watch for: Milwaukee has won each of Yovani Gallardo’s last three road starts, which includes victories as heavy dogs at Los Angeles (+170) and Tampa Bay (+155). Rookie Odrisamer Despaigne is coming off two rough road starts against the Diamondbacks and Cardinals, but the Padres have won three of his five outings at Petco Park. Four of the five meetings between these teams have finished ‘under’ the total, while the Padres have scored three runs or less four times.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC Preseason Wrap

August 28, 2014

Buffalo Bills: It's going to be interesting to see how E.J. Manuel handles his second season's ups and downs since the potential for permanent scarring appears great. He's already been booed off the field at halftime in the preseason home opener, criticized by Bills legend Jim Kelly and seems to be primed for a scapegoat role if there is no improvement in year two of the Doug Marrone era. After falling behind 24-0 in the dress rehearsal against Tampa Bay, he responded out of the break by going 5-for-5 on a touchdown drive. He'll need to display that type of resilience all season since it's clear that his history of injuries, inconsistency and the fact most didn't view him as a first-round pick has already depleted Buffalo's patience.

Miami Dolphins: Consistency is going to be the key for Ryan Tannehill in a new-look offense that ambitiously seeks to control pace and will require a high level of execution for them to surprise. Despite struggling against Dallas, he's got the weapons in place to make the Dolphins a factor if Mike Wallace does his job in stretching the field and Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson, rookie Jarvis Landry and tight end Charles Clay come through in their roles, but that's not the issue. The biggest variable will come when center Mike Pouncey returns from offseason hip surgery, because there will be adjustments timing-wise for an offensive line that carries question marks. Samson Satele has done a nice job filling in during preseason and Miami won its last division title with him snapping the ball to Chad Pennington in '09, but this promises to be a far more aggressive pace he'll have to manage and he's got a less experienced passer making the decisions.

New England Patriots: Developing chemistry with new tight end Tim Wright is going to be among Tom Brady's chief objectives as the regular season approaces. He obviously knows what to expect with freakish Rob Gronkowski when the All-Pro is back at full strength, but developing another weapon out of his team's newest acquisition will make the Patriots all the more formidable early. Not only will it take some pressure off Gronk's comeback, but sets up another potential pairing of elite pass-catching tight ends given Wright's physical gifts and potential. He came on strong midway through rookie season in Tampa Bay, catching at least four passes in eight of his last 13 games while steadily increasing his activity and understanding of the offense. Ideally, he'll make a great red zone target and answer critics wondering how he could be worth surrendering veteran mainstay Logan Mankins.

New York Jets: It appears that the Jets are showing Stephen Hill just how displeased they are with his lack of development by exposing him in the final preseason game. There's nothing against the passive-aggressive approach considering what a disappointment he's been, but the cap hit they would have to take to cut the former second-round pick appears too great given what he can potentially fetch down the road via trade if a suitor comes knocking. As things stand, Hill certainly didn't take the step forward the Jets were hoping he would to help stretch the field to ease the workload for Geno Smith and Eric Decker, forcing David Nelson and Jeremy Kerley into larger roles. So, yeah, count on New York relying on its running game heavily.

Houston Texans: Ultimately, quarterback play remains the primary topic of conversation in Houston as another season approaches. While that does say something about how positive prized rookie Jadeveon Clowney's first impression was, excitement will be tempered if Ryan Fitzpatrick fails to be serviceable. After a dreadful opener, he found a rhythm, demonstrating improvement and seeking out Andre Johnson often in the dress rehearsal against Denver. Local product Case Keenum and rookie Tom Savage will also stick after competent play the past few weeks, but it's tough to forecast the position being a strength and it offers little consolation that former starter Matt Schaub seems to have a dead arm out in Oakland. The Texans will reunite with him out West in Week 2.

Indianapolis Colts: You know offensive line issues have crept up when you're seriously considering adding Richie Incognito to the roster. The headaches started almost immediately with center Khaled Holmes suffering a significant high ankle sprain in the preseason opener and continued with other nagging injuries springing up and inconsistency predictably plaguing key young linemen. It's no coincidence that the Colts entered the fourth and final preseason game winless, but it's also no secret that playing Andrew Luck four quarters is going to smooth out a lot of warts. How effective (and healthy) Holmes is in his projected return during Week 1 will determine a lot, especially with no time to settle in with games against Denver and Philadelphia up first. Incognito could help upgrade the interior line with his experience if he's right, but that obviously carries risk.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles isn't expected to see more than a drive or two, so don't expect to ride the rookie QB in the Jaguars preseason finale against Atlanta. Head coach Gus Bradley and his staff are putting more importance on picking a No. 3 quarterback between Ricky Stanzi and rookie Stephen Morris. Nothing against those two, but it would have been nice to for Bortles to play about a half against Atlanta, especially given the excitement he's generated among season ticket holders stuck with this fourth preseason game. The No. 3 overall pick is not going to get any game reps for the foreseeable future come regular season, but the Jaguars do intend on giving him extended reps during game week, cutting into starter Chad Henne's preparation time. How that delicate balance is struck will be more important than wins and losses.

Tennessee Titans: There are a lot of questions surrounding a team still trying to round out its depth, but it was a promising sign to see Jake Locker fare so well, as he finished with a passer rating of 119.9 in completing 70 percent of his attempts with no turnovers. Rookie Zach Mettenberger has led all NFL quarterbacks in passing yardage, so at the very least, it appears Ken Whisenhunt putting an emphasis on creating depth at receiver has done wonders for the confidence of his quarterbacks. Primary backup Charlie Whitehurst has missed time with a finger issue but is well-versed in the system from his time with Whisenhunt in San Diego. The early success of Locker in picking up a new system put the Titans on the short list of potential surprise teams.

Baltimore Ravens: Despite concern over RB Bernard Pierce's ability to be healthy for week 1 due to a mild concussion and Ray Rice's two-game absence, the biggest long-long-term obstacle remains the secondary. With Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb missing so much time already, odds are they won't be sharp early during the regular season even if they managed to get back without missing any games. Asa Jackson, Chykie Brown, Dominique Franks and newcomer Derek Cox have to hold down the fort and for a team that sees the Bengals and Steelers in a four-day span in their first two regular-season games.

Cincinnati Bengals: Even if he'd never gotten his headline-grabbing, cap-friendly contract and been left out to dry, Andy Dalton would've still been the subject of scrutiny in 2014. This preseason shows he's answering the bell, a good thing since the Bengals season is going to hinge entirely on him breaking through the ceiling. What this last month has also shown is that the Bengals can't afford to get him hurt. Backups Jason Campbell and AJ McCarron have been hurt most of the way and would provide a drastic downgrade if anything ever happened to the Red Rifle. It will be on him and AJ Green to get the season off to a good start at Baltimore. A Joe Flacco-like response to pressure would go a long way, so it seems like a fitting opening test.

Cleveland Browns: Banishing Josh Gordon for a full season is a damaging blow for everyone associated with the franchise, especially Gordon. With the NFL sticking to its stance, the star receiver will have to set up a close circle around him to stay out of trouble and meet conditions for reinstatement in a year's time. As for the Browns, they lose out on having an elite target to help Johnny Manziel develop later on this season, because at some point come November, the former Heisman Trophy winner will probably be starting. Without Gordon, who often played security blanket for all the quarterbacks this preseason, it's inevitable that Manziel's improvisational skills will be put to use more often and we'll witness whether he's learned enough not to get himself killed.

Pittsburgh Steelers: LeVeon Bell and LeGarrette Blount will not only play in the final preseason game against Carolina, but are also unlikely to miss time this season over their recent arrests for marijuana possession since the league will wait out the judicial process. If the offensive line stays healthy, the Steelers could have a monster year on offense and plan on complementing the unit with an aggressive, attacking defense. Playing four of their first six on the road may temper their approach, but this team looks capable of proving they're done with 8-8 seasons right out of the gate.

Denver Broncos: Losing top linebacker Danny Trevathan for a month and Wes Welker's unfortunate latest concussion overshadowed everything else in an otherwise productive August, but neither setback currently appears season-altering. Barring complications, Trevathan will be back at full strength by the postseason, but their receiver's dilemma is far more complicated. It remains to be seen whether the Broncos pull back on sending Welker on his more dangerous patterns or conserve him for the more challenging games, but it would appear that Demariyus Thomas' presence, the emergence of Julius Thomas and arrival of Emmanuel Sanders takes pressure off rushing Welker back or placing too heavy a load on him early. Second-round pick Cody Latimer has looked impressive as a route-runner and blocker, so another quality option has emerged for Peyton Manning.

Kansas City Chiefs: Jamaal Charles didn't need a ton of preseason work as it is given the load that awaits, so news that his bruised foot feels fine and he'll be 100 percent for the opener is reassuring. Andy Reid's system reduces the number of conventional handoffs, but Charles still got over 17 carries per game for the second straight season while more than doubling his targets out of the backfield to finish with a career-high 70 receptions. With Dwayne Bowe suspended for the season opener, he'll be the offense, thrust right in against Tennessee despite the lack of in-game reps. Charles got a season-high 22 carries at Tennessee last year, rushing for 108 yards and a TD while adding five catches. Knile Davis wrapped up the backup gig, while capable options Joe McKnight and Cyrus Gray will vie for time but may both make the team due to their versatility.

Oakland Raiders: Matt Schaub's elbow trouble has Raiders management crossing their fingers, fans hoping for rookie Derek Carr to get on-the-job training anx overachiever Matt McGloin potentially in line to start as many games as he did last season. He's expecting to be fine for the season opener against the Jets, but there's no question that hopes he'd be in for a revival after an awful ending in Houston have taken a hit. It would be best if he's able to overcome this slow start since it would keep Carr from being thrown into the fire and give the Raiders a veteran presence under center to try and set a confident offensive tone alongside veteran backs Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew.

San Diego Chargers: Don't sleep on Philip Rivers appears to be the theme here. He had an efficient August, completing 15-of-18 passes in limited action, adding a touchdown against the 49ers defense to tidily wrap up in-game preparations. He'll have weeks to study the Cardinals defense and knows he's got the freshest Antonio Gates we've seen in years, not to mention his emerging tight end protégé Ladarius Green, Swiss Army knife Danny Woodhead, Vincent Brown, Malcom Floyd and last year's breakout star, Keenan Allen. The Chargers will open in Arizona and then host the same Seahawks that squashed them 41-14 two weeks ago, so we'll know quickly whether they're ready to take a step forward in Year 2 under Mike McCoy.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC Preseason Wrap

August 29, 2014


Dallas Cowboys: Dez Bryant provided the highlights in preseason, often looking unstoppable. He even got himself a new contract just to keep him happy. At least owner/GM Jerry Jones knows where his bread is buttered. If Tony Romo has any hope of overcoming the first few weeks after offseason back surgery, he'll need Bryant locked in and productive, so Jones did his part. He's also tried to dampen expectations, calling the season an uphill battle when addressing fans at the kickoff luncheon. You would think the Cowboys went undefeated in the preseason or something.

New York Giants: Eli Manning completed another pass in the fourth preseason game, matching his output in Games 1 and 2 combined. It went for 0 yards. So there's that. There were obviously positives to draw upon from the team's first unbeaten August since 2006, but the new West Coast offense isn't one of them, at least among the starters. There were some near-misses from Manning to Victor Cruz, so the answers probably start with stretching the field through him to help gain some confidence, help other guys find a rhythm and get this attack some teeth.

Philadelphia Eagles: The starters shined against Pittsburgh, pulling away for an easy win in the Week 3 dress rehearsal. The guys most likely to be cut trounced the Jets future cast-offs, basically running up the score because they were fresher and executed better. Philly has this exhibition thing down. New coach Chip Kelly's did a nice job in his second preseason and didn't have to deal with as many distractions as he did in his maiden voyage, so there's no reason the Eagles shouldn't be stronger with Jeremy Maclin back and most of the roster familiar with their coach's formations and philosophies. Nick Foles wasn't as sharp in games as many would've liked, but his familiarity with the system should lead to an improvement, too. If he regresses or gets hurt, super backup Mark Sanchez looms as an unlikely safety net so long as he retains his regained confidence.

Washington Redskins: Kirk Cousins outplayed Robert Griffin III. There's no denying that. RG III remains the more dynamic choice, but the fact team observers like Joe Theismann aren't alone in their opinion that the more conventional Cousins is a better fit for a team with a standout running back and dynamic receiving threats seems like a debate that won't be going away. Every loss will be met with what-ifs, so the only way for Griffin to stop the chirping will be to win. Most have conveniently forgotten that Cousins struggled mightily last season, throwing four touchdowns against seven interceptions and finishing with a QB rating of 58.4. That doesn't seem to matter, and won't, if Griffin falters. No NFC team has a more compelling and potentially divisive quarterback situation.

Atlanta Falcons: Steven Jackson is a 31-year-old running back who wanted no part of participating in preseason games, so there is no real concern that he did August his way. What does bear watching is whether he's lost any further juice from where he left off last December, when he at least looked like he could still contribute at a reasonably high level. His first season in Atlanta was a lost cause, seeing him tear his hamstring in Week 2 after an encouraging debut at New Orleans, slowly regaining his form after rushing back to return six weeks later. There was some burst displayed there at the end, at least enough to be encouraged about the possibility he can again be a 1,000-yard back, but his streak of consecutive seasons reaching that benchmark ended at eight. Odds are he's done being that type of back, but it's important that he's easing back into a return. He'll likely need a few weeks under his belt to see whether he can knock off the rust from this preseason's hamstring issue, but it's too early to write him off just because he's decided to return on his timetable. Backup Jacquizz Rodgers and FSU products Antone Smith and Devonta Freeman have looked capable thus far and may all be a factor in the season opener at New Orleans given the need to keep Drew Brees off the field.

Carolina Panthers: Panthers got to see Cam Newton, though clearly limited and rusty, move around some. Considering where we were coming into this month, that's probably a victory. They were right to be especially cautious after his ankle surgery, but needed to see glimpses of Superman. Quite frankly, they were few and far between and he fractured a rib, never fun, but he gained the confidence he'll be able to function when the lights come on. His throws were off and there will be timing issues until he fully sheds the rust, but the unproven wide receiving corps fared reasonably well, too, especially rookie Kelvin Benjamin. There's hope this season won't yield a drastic decline, but a lot has to come together, including the new-look offensive line that didn't look so hot.

New Orleans Saints: The Saints were counting on Kenny Stills being their deep threat since they got so many other intriguing options working the middle of the field. Rookie Brandin Cooks is the team's fastest weapon, but his lack of size means he's better suited to turn short passes up field as opposed to going up to get it over an opposing corner. Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and Robert Meachem can each be wildly productive, but don't stretch a defense like Stills, who aggravated a quad injury that has kept him out most of training camp. Joseph Morgan or rookie Brandon Coleman may find themselves in Stills' role until he's able to go.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adding guard Logan Mankins to lead the offensive line may wind up being more important than the drafting of top WR Mike Evans or the acquisition of new QB Josh McCown. That's no exaggeration, since there are other capable players on the roster at those positions, but the Bucs were going to see their season go down the tubes due to their porous interior line. Tampa's offensive pieces are young, which means Mankins walks into an immediate leadership position due to his championship pedigree and experience. If he's got a chip on his shoulder over being dumped by the Patriots, that would be ideal. His presence could mean at least a couple more wins than they would've managed without him, making him critical to Lovie Smith's restoration project.

Chicago Bears: Preseason results don't matter, but sometimes individual plays do. It just depends which ones you choose to accentuate. It was impressive to see Jay Cutler run a masterful two-minute drill down 28-0 in the dress rehearsal game at Seattle, beating Richard Sherman on a nice route run by Brandon Marshall and hitting Martellus Bennett on a gorgeous back shoulder throw just short of the goal line. He even executed in getting Dante Rosario a short touchdown that was nullified, but then struggled with timing on the next snap and carelessly threw an interception to complete a horrid half. Good Cutler has thrived more of late, but bad Cutler still exists. The Bears season will ride on whether Cutler continues that upward trend in Marc Trestman's system or reverts to being counterproductive. Week 1 supplies an interesting wrinkle in that new Bills backup Jordan Palmer will be supplying key information to his new coaches and teammates, placing additional pressure on Cutler to be judicious.

Detroit Lions: Rookie linebacker Kyle Van Noy, a second-round pick from BYU, was already opening eyes in camp and preseason games with his instincts and athleticism, but had surgery for a sports hernia and should miss at least a couple of games. At some point this season, Van Noy was likely to emerge as a three-down player on the outside, so it remains to be seen whether this is an obstacle halo overcome or a setback that helps spoil his potential first-year impact. Considering all the close games the Lions played last season because they failed to get stops, his contributions could make a major difference.

Green Bay Packers: Eddie Lacy had a brilliant camp, complete with shining in the preseason games he participated in. After 1,178 rushing yards as a rookie, it's likely he's in for a monster year behind what's expected to be a stronger offensive line if they stay healthy. Aaron Rodgers has never had a better running back next to him, so it's going to be telling to as to where this offense is against the NFL's best defense on the road in Seattle come Thursday night. There's no shame in struggling, but if they manage to win or march up and down the field in a loss, the potential for this attack would be frightening.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are encouraged by their defensive improvement and Adrian Peterson being healthier than he was last season, but the Matt Cassel-Teddy Bridgewater QB battle remains the most riveting thing to watch from this bunch. To their credit, both had excellent camps, putting together the level of competition they would have loved to have seen in Cleveland, so you get the sense that the rookie's grasp of the offense is strengthening and he'll be a factor at some point. Making a call on when to turn the team over to the young guy appears to be Mike Zimmer's biggest impending call as a first-year head coach.

Arizona Cardinals: Veteran John Abraham was a major surprise last year, displaying great form with 11.5 sacks and four forced fumbles after coming over from Atlanta. He's 36 years old and didn't report to training camp until mid-August due to a DUI and subsequent stint in rehab, so there are more questions than there already would be about an aging defender, although it's unknown whether he'll miss games this season as the judicial process plays out. He'll start at weakside linebacker as he did a season ago, but it remains to be seen whether he can remain a consistent force.

St. Louis Rams: Shaun Hill has put together decent numbers in his career, but hasn't prepared his mind for the task of being the starter from week-to-week since 2010. Matthew Stafford's rise and durability has limited him to four games and 16 pass attempts over the past three regular seasons, so Hill's approach and ability to put games, good or bad, behind him to focus on the next one, will determine how successful he'll be in replacing Sam Bradford. It bears mentioning that the former No. 1 overall pick did look impressive before his latest ACL tear, complicating the Rams plans at QB going forward. Hill may not be more than a stopgap, but he'll presumably have the whole season to prove himself given the presence of Austin Davis and rookie Garrett Gilbert behind him.

San Francisco 49ers: The perception has been that the 49ers were planning to limit Frank Gore's workload as he enters his 10th season, but he's coming off a season where he had the third-highest total of carries in his career and looked fresh a drive spry this August. Rookie Carlos Hyde and LaMichael James are going to get work, but Gore should still be a significant part of the offense, especially early given the instability displayed early from Colin Kaepernick and the offensive line.

Seattle Seahawks: We'll get to see what Percy Harvin's effect on Russell Wilson and this offense truly is. After one regular-season game where he caught a single pass, he was used primarily as a decoy in the postseason, remaining relatively quiet coming up with the exception of a couple of explosive plays. Harvin told reporters that he's as healthy as he's been since "maybe before college," though the Seahawks are smartly still easing him back given his history of hip and leg injuries. If he's right, he's the home run hitter that's been lacking in this attack, so they may score a few more points and cover a few more spreads.

 

[CNOTES]

Trends to Watch - September

August 26, 2014


It’s official. The pig is in the air.

That means it is now September and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and ‘trendsvestites’ alike.

Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of September. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

Remember, as the late, great Howard Cosell once said, “What’s right isn’t always popular. What’s popular isn’t always right.”

Play accordingly.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): The Detroit Lions have been fast starters at home with a 27-16 ATS record in the opening month of the season will play host to the New York football Giants (9/8) and Green Bay (9/21).

Keep an eye on (Bad): Here we have home teams that frustrate wagering home fans. Cincinnati is the worst of the bunch at a miserable 13-25 ATS and they will face Atlanta and Tennessee in Week’s 2 and 3.

Jay Gruden will attempt to break the negative cycle in Washington at 15-26 ATS when Jacksonville (9/14) and the Giants (9/25) arrive to face the team without an approved nickname any more.

Arizona will have two shots to better a 13-22 ATS record with San Diego in the desert on the opening Monday night and San Francisco 13 days later.

AWAY TEAMS

Bad: It has not mattered if Sam Bradford has been hurt or not or any other Rams quarterback for that matter, St. Louis has been a superior ‘play against’ road team at 14-29 ATS. Because of an early bye on this year’s schedule there is just one chance to bet against the Rams: at Tampa Bay (9/14).

Keep an eye on (Bad): This has been a mystery for years why Pittsburgh has been a bad bet at 14-27 ATS, never quite ready to begin the season. Let’s see how they do a short week at Baltimore (9/11) and 10 days later at Carolina.

As good as Detroit has been at home this month, that’s how bad they are away from home at 16-27 ATS. Keep a watchful eye on them at Carolina (9/14) and two weeks later in the New Jersey vs. the Jets.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): The defending NFL champions Seattle are moneymakers out of the gate at 27-15 ATS and should be favored all three times against very good competition, facing the Packers, at San Diego and a rematch with Denver in the first three weeks. Given the fact they are 17-1 SU and 13-5 ATS at home the past two seasons behind QB Russell Wilson they will be hard to fade at CenturyLink Field.

Bad: September has been a very bad month for several teams when listed as favorites. Let’s start with Carolina at 7-17 ATS and since they are lacking perimeter playmakers, they could be in trouble during the initial three weeks of the year being anticipated as favorites.

Most likely Arizona (7-16 ATS) will only be favored once and that is the opener with the Chargers. Presuming Sam Bradford can go, the Rams (12-24 ATS) are a Week 1 home favorite versus Minnesota, but Week 3 when Dallas is on the shores of the Mississippi River is up in the air right now.

Keep an eye on (Bad): As mentioned, the Bengals will have two home tilts and will be doling out points and with an 11-21 spread record in that role. You might have to look to the other side.

UNDERDOGS

Good: Especially in the Tony Romo era, betting against Dallas has been profitable. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been money as underdogs the first three to four weeks of the season at 23-10 ATS. While we don’t know for certain, there is a possibility the Boys could be dogs the entire month facing San Fran (9/7) at Tennessee (9/14), at St. Louis (9/21) and when Drew Brees and company comes to Big D on the final Sunday of September. Watch closely.

Bad: Pittsburgh’s pathetic road record has translated into crummy results as an underdog at 9-20 ATS. Those two away outings to visit the Ravens and Panthers could mean more ‘play against’ opportunities for NFL bettors.

DIVISION

Good: Kansas City has annually fared well against AFC West rivals early with a 22-11 ATS mark and makes the trip to Denver in Week 2 to see if they can make their good fortune continue.

Keep an eye on (Bad): If you think you have seen Cincinnati’s name a lot as a ‘play against’ squad in this treatise you are correct. And they fit again in AFC North action making the trip over to Baltimore on Sept. 7 with a 12-20 ATS record in division action.

 

[cloverleaf]

A lot of good NFL information Mr. C.

Many thanks.................

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Power Rankings: Week 1

NFL Power Rankings

Current Rank Last Week Change Team W-L-T

(ATS) Power Rating Team Comments

1 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -7 Seattle
The past two defending Super Bowl champions (Giants, Ravens) both lost outright in their first game on Thursday but Seattle is 6-0 ATS in their last six as a home favorite of seven points or less.

2 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -4.5 San Francisco
San Francisco's defense took a hit with the suspension of linebacker Aldon Smith, but the 49ers went 6-0-1 ATS last season as road favorites and are 6-0 Over under Jim Harbaugh the first two weeks of the season.

3 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -4 Green Bay
Green Bay opens the season with three road games in their first four including a huge test at Seattle opening night. The Packers are 2-5 ATS as road dogs the last two years but they are 4-1 ATS their last five Thursday games.

4 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -3.5 Denver
Peyton Manning will be out for revenge after losing to his former team last season. Denver is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while going 8-0 Over first 8 games last season.

5 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -3.25 New Orleans
The Saints early schedule is a good one as their first 7 games are against teams that failed to post a winning record last season. New Orleans went 0-4 ATS last year as road favorites and the home team has covered 5 straight in this series.

6 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -3 New England
New England is again a big favorite to win the AFC East for a sixth straight season. The Patriots were just 2-7 ATS on the road last year and the home team and the under has cashed the last four meetings.

7 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -2 San Diego
According to reports, the Chargers offense is clicking under new OC Frank Reich so they could be a dangerous sleeper if the defense improves. San Diego was 5-1-1 ATS last season as a road underdog.

8 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -1.5 Philadelphia
After closing 7-2 last year, the Eagles are the favorites in what seems to be a weak NFC East. They are a big chalk here but they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as double-digit favorites.

9 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -1.25 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs each of the last two years following 8-8 seasons but the early schedule sets up very well so it won't start 0-4 again this year. The Steelers have covered five straight divisional games.

10 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -1 Baltimore
Baltimore has a great home field edge, going 39-9 during the regular season under Jim Harbaugh. The Ravens are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 as a home favorite of 7 points or less in the Harbaugh era.

11 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -0.5 Kansas City
The Chiefs need to put the playoff debacle against Indianapolis behind them but the early schedule is tough with Tennessee being the only easy game through the first six. Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in their last five at home.

12 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 0 Cincinnati
Cincinnati has made the playoffs the last three years only to lose in the first round each time but it is again the favorite in the AFC North but not by much. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings.

13 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 0.5 Chicago
This is the second year in the system under head coach Marc Trestman and after improving last season, things could be even more explosive this year. Chicago is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.

14 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 1 Arizona
It will be tough for the Cardinals to post double-digit wins once again playing in a brutal division and a tough out of conference schedule on top of it. Arizona has covered its last four season openers.

15 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 1.5 Atlanta
Atlanta went 4-12 last season, its first losing campaign under Mike Smith but seven losses were by a touchdown or less so it could be a value team this year. The under is 5-0 in their last five meetings in Atlanta.

16 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 2 Carolina
The Panthers will again rely on their defense to repeat in the NFC South which no team has ever done. Carolina has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog and hasn't covered a season opener since 2008.

17 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 2.25 Indianapolis
The Colts are ranked as low as they are because they have been outgained in yardage each of the last two years but an easy schedule can reverse that. Indianapolis is 0-6 ATS in their last six season openers but has covered six straight vs. Denver.

18 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 2.5 St. Louis
The Rams suffered a big loss with Sam Bradford going down for the season after playing only seven games last season so it is up to Shaun Hill now. St. Louis is 21-9 Over their alst 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

19 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 2.75 Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is the sleeper team in the NFC South with head coach Lovie Smith taking over and buoyed by a very easy schedule. The Buccaneers are 13-29-1 ATS in their last 43 home games.

20 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 3 N.Y. Giants
After missing the playoffs the last two years, the schedule is on the side of New York as a win here could lead to a 5-0 start. The Giants are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Monday night games as underdogs of four or more points.

21 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 3.25 Detroit
Jim Caldwell takes over for a Detroit teams that has lost 17 of its last 24 games but it is loaded on both sides of the ball. The Lions have covered five of their last six as Monday night favorites.

22 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 4 Tennessee
Tennessee has not been to playoffs in five years but that could change this season under new head coach Ken Whisenhunt as it plays the second easiest schedule in the league. The Under is 6-1 in the Titans last seven season openers.

23 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 4.5 N.Y. Jets
The Jets have missed the playoffs the last three years after going to back-to-back AFC Championships but it will be tough to compete in the AFC East. New York went 3-0 ATS as a home favorite last season.

24 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 4.75 Minnesota
New head coach Mike Zimmer comes into town with a roster full of talent and Minnesota was better than last season's record shows with four losses by four points or less. Minnesota is 4-0 Over its last four road games.

25 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 5 Washington
The Redskins took a huge step back last season and head into Houston riding an eight-game losing streak while covering just two of those. Jay Gruden looks to turn it around fast but the Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

26 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 5.25 Jacksonville
Jacksonville could top the list for most improved team after closing last season a respectable 4-4 and the Jaguars are loaded with young talent. The Over is 5-2 in the Jaguars last seven road games.

27 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 5.75 Dallas
Expectations are not very high for Dallas this season and that could be a good thing but it faces a very tough opening test here. The Cowboys are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games but did go 2-0 ATS as a home dog last year.

28 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 6 Miami
Head coach Joe Philbin is on the hot season after a 15-17 start his first two years and the Dolphins may be undervalued in this spot with a lot of potential. Miami is 9-1 Under in their last nine games against division opponents.

29 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 6.25 Buffalo
Three straight 6-10 finishes for the Bills have been frustrating but they have been involved in some tough losses the last two years so things could get better. Buffalo has covered seven of its last nine season openers.

30 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 6.5 Houston
Things can only get better for Houston after losing its last 14 games last season which included nine losses by a touchdown or less. The Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six as a favorite over the last two seasons.

31 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 6.75 Cleveland
The quarterback controversy in Cleveland is over for now but a poor start could have us see Johnny Football quicker than expected. The Browns have won a total of seven games in the AFC North over the last six years.

32 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 8 Oakland
The Raiders are the worst team in the NFL until they prove otherwise. Playing a schedule featuring 11 games against teams with a wining record last year doesn't help. The Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the AFC.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Green Bay at Seattle
The Packers open the season against the defending champion Seahawks on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 Thursday games. Green Bay is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4

Game 461-462: Green Bay at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 133.926; Seattle 137.164
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 45
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6); Under


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

Game 463-464: New Orleans at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.138; Atlanta 130.846
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 2 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-2 1/2); Over

Game 465-466: Minnesota at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 130.652; St. Louis 132.054
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 6; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6); Over

Game 467-468: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.022; Pittsburgh 138.425
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6); Over

Game 469-470: Jacksonville at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 124.816; Philadelphia 133.483
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 8 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 11; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+11); Over

Game 471-472: Oakland at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 120.602; NY Jets 135.250
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 14 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 5; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-5); Over

Game 473-474: Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 134.095; Baltimore 131.442
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2 1/2); Under

Game 475-476: Buffalo at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 124.013; Chicago 133.118
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 9; 52
Vegas Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-6 1/2); Over

Game 477-478: Washington at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 119.942; Houston 125.013
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 49
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2 1/2); Over

Game 479-480: Tennessee at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 129.971; Kansas City 132.518
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 6; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6); Under

Game 481-482: New England at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.356; Miami 129.666
Dunkel Line: New England by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 4; 47
Dunkel Pick: New England (-4); Over

Game 483-484: Carolina at Tampa Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.830; Tampa Bay 134.051
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 35
Vegas Line: Carolina by 1; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1); Under

Game 485-486: San Francisco at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 141.550; Dallas 130.068
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5; 51
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5); Under

Game 487-488: Indianapolis at Denver (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 136.352; Denver 140.289
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4; 50
Vegas Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7 1/2); Under


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 8

Game 489-490: NY Giants at Detroit (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 123.754; Detroit 139.788
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 16; 42
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4 1/2); Under

Game 491-492: San Diego at Arizona (10:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 140.461; Arizona 140.268
Dunkel Line: Even; 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3 1/2); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (8 - 8 - 1) at SEATTLE (16 - 3) - 9/4/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (12 - 6) at ATLANTA (4 - 12) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (5 - 10 - 1) at ST LOUIS (7 - 9) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 98-134 ATS (-49.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (4 - 12) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 92-61 ATS (+24.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (4 - 12) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 7) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (4 - 12) at NY JETS (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (11 - 6) at BALTIMORE (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (6 - 10) at CHICAGO (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (3 - 13) at HOUSTON (2 - 14) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (7 - 9) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 6) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) at MIAMI (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-121 ATS (+26.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (12 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 12) - 9/7/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 5) at DALLAS (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 6) at DENVER (15 - 4) - 9/7/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 8

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NY GIANTS (7 - 9) at DETROIT (7 - 9) - 9/8/2014, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (10 - 8) at ARIZONA (10 - 6) - 9/8/2014, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in dome games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Packers @ Seahawks-- Seahawks won/covered 10 of their last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers. Home side won seven of last eight series games; Pack is 2-3 in last five games here, losing last visit in ’12 on awful call by replacement refs on last play of game. Green Bay lost 14-12/34-28 in last two road openers; they allowed 30+ points in last three series openers. Packers had been 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy until LY, when they were 1-3, 1-2 with sub QB’s playing. Since ‘07, Pack is 11-6 as non-divisional road dogs. Since ‘05, Seahawks are 31-16-1 as home favorites, 12-5 under Carroll, 6-3 vs. non-division foes.

Saints @ Falcons-- Saints won six of last seven meetings in this underrated rivalry, with five of last six wins by 6 or less points; they’ve won six of last eight visits here, with last four wins by 4 or less points. NO covered only one of last seven road openers (3-4 SU), with five of last six going over total. Atlanta won last six home openers and nine of last 10 (9-1 vs. spread). Saints are 6-4 in last ten AFC South road games, with only one win by more than 4 points- its been four years since they won a divisional road game by more than 7 points. Falcons are 11-6-1 vs. spread in NFC South home games under Smith; they were -7 in turnovers LY, after being +35 the three years before that.

Vikings @ Rams-- Zimmer’s first game as head coach comes vs. veteran Ram defense that has 105 sacks in two years under Fisher (#1/#3 in NFL) and upgraded at DC this year with Gregg Williams back on job. Frazier was 8-5 vs spread as a non-divisional road underdog in three years as Minnesota HC; Vikings are 2-8 in last ten road openers, losing last four (1-2-1 vs. spread); they won last two games with Rams 38-10/36-22, but none of these coaches, few of these players took part in those games. Rams lost six of last seven openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Fisher; St Louis is 4-3 as home favorite under Fisher- they were +8 in turnovers LY, just second time in last seven years they had positive ratio.

Browns @ Steelers-- Pittsburgh has treated Browns like a pinata, winning 19 of 20 meetings, last three by 14-16-13 points; Cleveland lost last nine visits here, last six by 11+ points- they scored two TD’s on 24 drives in two games vs. Pitt LY, but now there is new coach/GM in Cleveland; they were 3-0 when Hoyer started LY; he passed for 321 yards in only road start, at Minnesota. Steelers are 10-8-1 as divisional home favorites under Tomlin; they went 8-8 SU in each of last two years, are -27 in turnovers last three years, so there is pressure on them. Steelers won 10 of last 11 home openers, covering seven of last nine, with last five staying under the total.

Jaguars @ Eagles-- Philly is just 9-23 vs spread at home the last four years, 9-17 as home favorite, 0-2 when laying double digits; they won 28-3 in Jacksonville four years ago, its first series win in four games; Jags won 13-6 here in ‘06, their only visit to Linc. Eagles lost six of last eight home openers, winning by 1-35 points (0-5 vs. spread in last five); their last two home openers were decided by total of four points. Jags lost five of last six road openers (2-4 vs. spread); seven of their last ten road openers stayed under total. Jax is 5-15 vs. spread in last 20 games vs. NFC teams; Iggles are 7-13 in their last 20 vs AFC squads. Over last five years, Week 1 double digit favorites are 3-4 against the spread.

Raiders @ Jets-- Jets blocked punt for TD, led 20-3 at half in 37-27 (-3) win over Oakland LY, Raiders 4th loss in row here, and 11th win for home side in last 14 series games. Raiders started 0-1 in ten of last eleven seasons; they’ve lost three of last four road openers, losing by 25-22-4 points. Gang Green won four of last five home openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points- they’re 5-16 vs. spread in last 21 home openers, but covered last two. Raiders are 10-15 as dogs under Allen, 7-8 on road (2-14 SU). Jets are 12-16-1 as single digit favorites under Ryan. Over is 10-4-1 in Oakland’s last 15 road openers, 2-4 in Jets’ last six home openers.

Bengals @ Ravens-- Ravens had only three offensive TD’s on 29 drives vs Bengals LY, all on drives of 53 or less yards; they were outgained by 345 yards in two series meetings LY, but now Cincy has two new coordinators (Zimmer/Gruden are HC‘s), while Kubiak is upgrade over Caldwell as OC for Baltimore offense. Home side won eight of last nine series games; Bengals lost last four visits here, by 6-7-31-3 points. Baltimore won its last nine home openers, covering seven, with all nine wins by 7+ points. Cincy started 0-1 five of last six years; they lost five of last seven road openers. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Raven openers, 5-0 in Bengals’ last five road openers.

Bills @ Bears-- Buffalo signed Bears' old backup QB Palmer last week, does that give them edge here? They're 4-15-1 as road underdog last three years; they’re 0-5 at Soldier Field, with four losses by 17+ points- their last visit here was a 40-7 loss in ‘06. Chicago is 7-4 overall in series, with last meeting 22-19 Bear win in Toronto in ‘10. Bills lost eight of last ten road openers, covering one of last four- they’re 6-5 vs. spread as a dog in road openers. Chicago won last five home openers (1-3-1 vs. spread in last five as favorite in HO). Since ‘07, Bears are 13-22-3 as home favorites, 1-3-2 under Trestman, but they’re 5-1-2 in last eight games vs. AFC foes. Over last nine years, Buffalo is 12-21-3 vs. spread vs. NFC teams. Over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five road openers, 3-0 in Bears’ last three home openers.

Redskins @ Texans-- Houston went 2-14 LY, losing last 14 games after going 24-10 in previous 34, so they changed coaches, traded for Mallett Sunday, so current QB Fitzpatrick is lame duck starter; Texans won last four home openers, covering three, scoring 30+ points in all four- six of their last nine home openers stayed under total. Washington lost five of last six road openers, but is 6-3 vs. spread as dogs in road openers, with four of last five going over total. Since ‘09, Texans are 5-12-3 vs. spread when facing NFC foe- they were 0-4 as home favorites LY, after being 20-14 the six years before that. Redskins won 31-15 in only visit to Reliant in ‘06; Texans won in OT in last series meeting, in ‘10. Jay Gruden is rookie NFL head coach, but had 93-61 record as a HC in Arena Football, winning two titles.

Titans @ Chiefs-- Whisenhunt was 16-20-2 as road dog with Arizona, but 4-0-1 vs. spread in road openers there; Titans won two of last three visits to Arrowhead, in series where visitor won four of last five meetings. 11-5 Chiefs were +18 in turnovers LY, after 2-14 Chiefs were -24 year before; regression is expected. Since ‘07, KC is 5-19-1 vs. spread as home fave; Reid covered once in his last eight home openers, Chiefs are 1-6-1 vs. spread in their last eight. Tennessee covered five of its last seven road openers. Under is 18-3-2 in Chiefs’ last 23 home openers, 14-3 in Titans’ last 17 road openers. Chiefs (-2.5) won 26-17 at Tennessee LY, scoring TD on special teams fumble, scoring only one TD, three FG’s on seven drives in Titan red zone.

Patriots @ Dolphins-- Miami installed new, faster offense this offseason; Pats played Eagles in preseason, who run that very offense. Dolphins lost seven of last eight series games, upsetting Pats 24-20 (+1) in Week 15 LY; NE won five of last seven visits here, with four of five wins by 14+ points. Patriots won first meeting nine of last ten years; they’re 6-2 in last eight road openers (5-3 vs. spread). Dolphins lost six of last eight openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Philbin and 5-1-1 vs. spread as home dogs. Miami is 9-14-1 vs spread in division games the last four years. Over last decade, Patriots are 16-8-2 as road favorite in division games, 57-31-5 as single digit favorite overall. Fish’ last five home openers went over total.

Panthers @ Buccaneers-- Carolina started last five seasons 0-1; they scored 10-7 points in losing last two season openers. Panthers lost last five road openers (0-5 vs. spread)- they were favored last two years. Lovie Smith went 29-19 his last three years coaching Bears; playoff losses got him fired,, but he is a huge upgrade at HC for Bucs, who had only one TD on 20 drives vs. Carolina LY, with three TO’s, eight 3/outs. Panthers swept series 31-13/27-6, outrushing Bucs 282-114. Carolina won three of its last five visits here. Bucs covered three of last four games as home dog in HO’s; they’re 5-4 SU in last nine. Five of last six Carolina road openers went over total.

49ers @ Cowboys-- 49ers are 19-5-2 as single digit favorite under Harbaugh, 10-4 as road favorites, 3-0 in season openers, winning by 16-8-6 points, while scoring 33-30-34 points. Dallas usually opens on road; since ‘88, they’re 5-3 SU when season opener is at home- they won last three home openers by total of 13 points. Cowboys covered last five tries as dog in home opener, but last such game was in ‘02. Since ‘06, Dallas is 6-2 as home underdog, 4-1 under Garrett. Cowboys won last three series games by 3-13-3 points, but haven’t met since ‘11, Harbaugh’s second game with 49ers. Five of last seven Dallas home openers went over total. 49ers are just 6-7-1 vs spread on carpet under Harbaugh.

Colts @ Broncos-- Denver was 6-0 LY before losing 39-33 at Indy in Week 7; they had 12 penalties, three turnovers (-2) and ran for just 64 yards in game they trailed 26-14 at half. Colts had 11-yard edge in field position; only one of their four TD’s was on drive longer than 50 yards. Indy lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 10+ points; the last six years, they’re 0-6 vs. spread in Week 1 games. Manning is 9-5 vs spread in home openers; Denver is 22-3 SU in last 25 home openers, covering four of last five; this figures to be emotional day, with declining health of Bronco owner Bowlen. Over is 5-1-1 in Denver’s last seven Mile High openers.

Giants @ Lions--Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven games LY, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week 16 debacle to Giants; Big Blue’s two TD’s were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. Lions outrushed them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Big Blue won last three series games by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Lions have new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine HO’s, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as road underdogs.

Chargers @ Cardinals-- San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series games, winning last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits here, but haven’t been in desert since ’02, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs last two years; they covered three of four vs. NFC LY, after being 0-8 previous two seasons. Bolts won four of last five Week 1 road openers; five of their last seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’ first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 vs. spread in Week 1 last eight years. Why did these teams meet in preseason LAST WEEK?

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 4

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Seattle is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
Seattle is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay


Sunday, September 7

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games at home
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
New England is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing New England

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. HOUSTON
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
Houston is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. KANSAS CITY
Tennessee is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing Oakland

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. PHILADELPHIA
Jacksonville is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games
Jacksonville is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games
Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CHICAGO
Buffalo is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
St. Louis is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 9 of St. Louis's last 13 games at home

4:25 PM
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games

4:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. DALLAS
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 12 games at home

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing Denver
Denver is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


Monday, September 8

7:10 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DETROIT
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Detroit is 3-9 SU in their last 12 games when playing NY Giants

10:20 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 4

Green Bay at Seattle, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 2-7 ATS as an underdog
Seattle: 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Opening Line Report: Books staying high on Seahawks

With Labor Day weekend drawing to a close, it’s a sure sign of two things: Summer is pretty much finished, and the NFL is just getting started.

While Week 1 odds have been on the board since the spring, action hasn't really heated up until recently. And we’ve got some sterling Week 1 matchups right out of the gate, most notably in the Thursday night opener, with the Green Bay Packers traveling to Seattle to take on the Super Bowl champion Seahawks in the primetime spotlight.

The opening number at most sportsbooks was Seahawks -5 to -6. Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag said his place stuck with the higher line.

“We opened with the Seahawks a solid 6-point home favorite, and we haven’t moved off that number,” Stewart tells Covers. “This game has seen great two-way action, and from all indications, we won’t have to move off this number, but maybe we’ll move the juice from time to time.”

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7)

The defending AFC champion Broncos hope to bounce back from an embarrassing Super Bowl performance and ride Peyton Manning’s arm to another big year.

The line opened at Denver -7 back in April and is still ranging from 7 to 7.5 at most books. CarbonSports opened at 7.5 and hasn’t been nudged in either direction for the Sunday night contest.

“While we saw decent Colts money come in early, all the late money has been on the Broncos,” Stewart says. “The reason for that late money: the Broncos and Peyton Manning have looked very sharp in the preseason and bettors believe they’ll carry that into Week 1 of the regular season. We tend to agree with those bettors and have been shading our line toward the Broncos.”

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys

The Niners are having all sorts of off-the-field issues, with linebacker Aldon Smith getting smacked with a nine-game suspension last week for violating the league’s personal conduct policy, followed by defensive lineman Ray McDonald’s arrest early Sunday morning on domestic violence charges.

But San Francisco is holding steady as 5.5-point chalk for Sunday afternoon’s tilt at AT&T Stadium. The line for this game was among those taking the biggest jump since numbers went up in April.

“San Francisco opened a solid 3-point road favorite, and that number proved to be way too short as all the early action was on the 49ers,” Stewart says. “We didn’t stay on three very long - it was probably one of our very first moves when we hung Week 1 lines back in April.

“We went to 3.5 and eventually blew through four and got to 4.5. That’s an enormous move for an NFL game, but with news coming out about Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee going down for the year, we wanted to get aggressive with this game. As more and more money showed for the 49ers, we eventually got to 49ers -6, which is our current number.”

New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Pats were a banged-up team with not much of a defense last season, yet came up just a game short of the Super Bowl.

With stud tight end Rob Gronkowski back, along with a better defense that includes a much improved secondary, Stewart said the money is piling in on New England. That’s taken a line that started at Pats -3 and pushed it to -4.5 in most spots, and even -5 at CarbonSports, for Sunday’s game.

“We got to -3.5 in early June, by late July we got to -4.5 and eventually to Patriots -5,” Stewart says. “So far, 80 percent of the action is on the Pats. Since we got to -5, we did book some sharp action on the Dolphins. But it wasn’t enough to move off (-5). Our exposure on the Patriots is significant enough to where we definitely want to write more action on the Dolphins, regardless of if it’s sharp.”

 

[CNOTES]

Seven Preseason Lessons

September 1, 2014


1) Only two teams emerged from the NFL preseason schedule without a win, the Indianapolis Colts (0-4) and the Dallas Cowboys (0-4). While one team is likely to regroup and potentially make the playoffs the other team could be in for a disastrous season. I don't believe that the Indianapolis franchise is overly concerned about the straight-up results from their preseason games. They have a franchise QB in place and play in a very manageable division. Dallas, on the other hand, has a multitude of noticeable problems and could be in for a very long season. The Cowboys may be fielding the worse defense in the NFL and with defections and injuries their depth has been thinned as well. In their four preseason games, the Cowboys surrendered 27, 25, 37, and 27 points (29 ppg), lost the first down battle 90 to 70, and allowed more than 6.0 yards per play.

On offense, the Cowboys held out QB Tony Romo for much of the preseason as he returns from injury, but there is little QB depth behind him and his importance is even more exaggerated as Dallas is likely to find itself playing from behind more than usual. The schedule makers didn't help either, in the first six weeks they have games vs San Francisco, Seattle, and New Orleans. Total bettors have already taken notice as the San Francisco/Dallas game has been bet up from 48 to 51, making it the biggest total move on the board so far. I expect this game to close even higher and savvy Dallas over bettors will need to concentrate on getting their bets in early every week.

2) Three teams managed to make it out of the preseason unscathed, the N.Y. Giants (5-0), Baltimore Ravens (4-0), and the Minnesota Vikings (4-0). Of these teams, which are pretenders and which are contenders? Baltimore is the contender here, I think that the Ravens were the most impressive team for the entire preseason. Baltimore outscored its opponents, 105-63 and in the three games that QB Joe Flacco played, his QBR's were 110.0, 93.5, and 107.2. In addition, the Ravens may have played the toughest preseason schedule, encountering three opponents who truly efforted to win the games. An opening game win against San Francisco as HC Jim Harbaugh faced off against his brother, a Week 2 matchup vs. the Cowboys in which Dallas allowed Romo to play a week early because they had been embarrassed badly in an opening week loss to San Diego, and the Week 3 tune-up game win against Washington. Baltimore plays in a winnable division and their schedule features only five teams that made the playoffs last season. I think that Flacco will improve as the season progresses as he becomes familiar with new OC Gary Kubiak's offense.

The Giants are the pretenders in this group. The Giants 5-0 SU mark is noteworthy, but the wins were in a less than impressive manner and often facilitated by the play of reserves. New York has a new OC in Ben McAdoo, and unlike in Baltimore, it seemed as if the Giants starters were having a hard time grasping the system. QB Eli Manning and the first-string offense led 19 drives in the five games, seven of those resulted in three-and-outs, and Eli completed just 48.8% of his passes. In the last five years, 10 teams have registered and undefeated NFL preseason and only one of those teams has gone on to win its division. With the NFC East likely being a one-bid division, that doesn't bode well for the Giants.

3) Preseason playing time is often a precarious thing and handled differently by different coaches and teams. It seems that, often times, the more valuable a player is to his team, the less he will play, this is especially true of offensive skill position players. So, with that in mind, is their anyone in the league more valuable than Adrian Peterson? Over the last three preseasons, Peterson has played exactly two snaps and been given ZERO carries. By comparison, just this year, Peyton Manning was on the field for 88 snaps and Tom Brady for 31. There is little doubt that, regardless of what others may think, the Vikings organization feels that Peterson is the player in the league that means the most to his team.

4) I was not a big believer in the Eagles hiring of former Oregon Ducks HC Chip Kelly, however, I may be changing my mind. I was unsure if Kelly's systems and up-tempo style would translate well to the NFL level but it seems as if the groundwork for success is being laid. At least, it seems, the Eagles scheme has been making stars of the skill position players who run wild in it. RB LeSean McCoy was already a solid player but LY's emergence of QB Nick Foles and WR Riley Cooper seem to be directly related to system they play in. The Eagles system is QB friendly and Philadelphia got the best overall QB play of any team in the preseason. The Eagles played four QB's and their average QBR's are as follows: Nick Foles: 83.9, Matt Barkley 86.4, Mark Sanchez 103.8, Greg Kinne 120.5. It's interesting to note that as the quality of the defenders on the field went down, the Eagles QBR ratings increased dramatically. QB's Sanchez and Kinne spent much of their time on the field against backups while playing with backups themselves. This would seem to say that the Eagles scheme and playcalling had a lot to do with the effectiveness of the offense. This may be an interesting handicapping and prop-betting note for QB play when the Eagles face weaker defensive teams or teams missing defensive starters.

5) Are the Carolina Panthers going to regress? Carolina had an encouraging season last year, going 12-4 and winning the NFC South, the Panthers seemed poised to become real contenders in the loaded NFC, but the preseason seems to have hinted at some problems than began in the offseason. Carolina lost both of its' starting WR's from LY, Steve Smith is now a Raven and Brandon LaFell is in New England, so the Panthers are breaking in a new set of wideouts including rookie Kelvin Benjamin. In their Week 3 tune-up game at New England, Benjamin was the only WR targeted more than twice and the passing game accounted for just 208 yards. QB Cam Newton is recovering from offseason surgery and, quite frankly, does not look fully recovered. The coaching staff has already said that early in the season he will not be allowed to run the read-option and Newton has not shown that he can stay in the pocket and beat NFL defenses.

In his limited preseason action, Cam consistently overthrew WR's and the Panthers first-string offense sputtered. A slow start from the gate may be crippling for this team as the middle of their schedule features the toughest five game stretch in the division: at Cincinnati, at Green Bay, vs. Seattle, vs. New Orleans, at Philadelphia. Carolina may have a telling game in the regular season opener at Tampa Bay, as they opened as two-point favorites, but now find themselves at one-point 'dogs.

6) Redskins owner Dan Snyder may be headed for a debate that will stir up as many emotions and divergent opinions as the one over his franchise's name. Which QB actually gives his team the best chance to win? Just the "eyeball test" will tell you that Robert Griffin III is not the player (yet) that he was prior to his knee injury and the Washington offense has struggled thusly. Backup QB Kirk Cousins has played well in relief of RGIII and his pocket passing skills seem better suited for the NFL game and new HC Jay Gruden's offense. For the preseason, Griffin went 13-20, 141 yards, 0 TD's and 2 INT's. Cousins went 35-54, 370 yards, 4 TD's and 1 INT. Everyone involved with the Redskins is saying the right thing but I believe it's interesting to note that Gruden decided not to play Cousins at all in preseason Week 4.

Of the 32 NFL teams, only six decided not to play their current starter or backup during the preseason finale. Cousins would have been facing mostly second and third stringers and, in his absence, QB Colt McCoy threw for 321 yards and 2 TD's with a QBR of 105.7. Adding some or a majority of those numbers (McCoy also threw 2 INT's in the opponents end zone!) to Cousins stats would have created a disparity that might have stirred things up even more. Washington added WR DeSean Jackson and Gruden is known as an offensive coach, so expectations are high for the Redskins offense and that puts even more pressure on RGIII to produce. If he underperforms, is there a chance that we could see Cousins in an increased role? Despite the denials, I say, yes.

7) PENALTIES!!! Flying yellow flags were a major topic of discussion for the entire preseason. With the referees focus on illegal contact, hand checking, and generally anything that involves touching a potential pass catcher, we saw the total number of penalties per game and penalties that resulted in first downs skyrocket. With "defensive holding" resulting in just a five-yard penalty but also an automatic FD, we saw a plethora of drives kept alive via penalty. The NFL has shown an inclination lately to create rule changes that favor the offense and protect offensive players, many say this is an effort to create a more "fan friendly" higher scoring product. That is certainly being played out in the betting arena as the data from the last few years says so.

Average opening total from 2011-2014:
-- Week 1, 2011 - 40.5 --- 7 of 16 games that were bet UP from the opener
-- Week 1, 2012 - 44.1 --- 7 of 16 games that were bet UP from the opener
-- Week 1, 2013 - 45.5 --- 9 of 16 games that were bet UP from the opener
-- Week 1, 2014 - 45.9 --- 7 of 16 games that were bet UP from the opener (as of 9-1-14)

Of course, matchups, weather, coaching changes, etc. have an effect on these numbers but just this simple example can show you that the rule changes have effected scoring. It's interesting to note that oddsmakers are seemingly taking the stance that the penalty calling will revert to more normal numbers once the regular season begins, as the increase in the average opening number for this year is up just 0.4 points. Bettors seem to be taking a similar overall stance, the percentage of games being bet up from the opener is in line with recent years and the major upward mover, the San Francisco/Dallas game, is likely due to awareness of the Cowboys defensive struggles and not an expectation of a penalty bonanza. I'd advise bettors who like any overs in Week 1 to get them in prior to Thursday's kickoff game.

The Green Bay/Seattle game seems the perfect fodder to see if the penalty increase will carry over to the regular season. This total has been bet up and we should see plenty of pass attempts from two good offenses featuring All-Pro QB's. Seattle's secondary is know for being both talented and physical, if the referees are limiting the contact and throwing flags on Sherman and Co. on opening night at home it's likely an indicator that may carry over for all of week #1. Just a heads up.

 

[CNOTES]

Top 5 Win Total Bets

September 2, 2014


After almost seven months away, the NFL is back once again. The preseason action wets the appetite, but the regular season is the real thing. This is the must-see television, and people all over are blocking off their Sunday afternoons for the next few months. I’ve always done well with regular season win total plays. In this article I’m going to share my top five NFL win total plays for the 2014-2015 season.

1) New Orleans Saints Over 9.5

You’re going to have to pay a lot of juice for this one, but I’m convinced it’s worth it. In fact, New Orleans is my pick to win the Super Bowl this season. Why? Quarterback Drew Brees is still at the top of his game and now he has another amazing weapon to work with in wide receiver Brandin Cooks. Cooks was the most electrifying receiver in college football last year at Oregon State, and he fits perfectly into this system. To say that the Saints have a wealth of offensive weapons is a major understatement. In the past, this team had to do it solely by outscoring opponents, but this defense was much better last year. No offense in the league is more dynamic, and the Saints are very capable of winning 12 games. This win total is a great value. Look for very big things from New Orleans this year.

2) Green Bay Packers Over 10.5

I like what the Green Bay Packers have going for them. It’s pretty amazing that this team even made it into the playoffs last year with the amount of injuries they had. The Packers are an elite team right away if Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, because in my opinion he is the best quarterback in the NFL. Linebacker Clay Matthews is the difference maker for the defense, and with him back this year the Packers defense will be much improved. Running back Eddie Lacy provides the team with that element they never used to have. Rodgers doesn’t have to do it all alone anymore. If teams aren’t able to sit back and expect the pass every time, I see Rodgers and this Green Bay passing attack being that much more dangerous. The Packers have a relatively difficult schedule, but I think 11 wins is the minimum for them unless Rodgers gets hurt again.

3) Houston Texans Over 7.5

The Houston Texans made some nice moves in the offseason. Houston brought in Bill O’Brien, who did a wonderful job at Penn State during a horribly difficult time. The trade for Ryan Mallett was a good move as well, since they certainly aren’t set at the quarterback position. Houston was the most disappointing team in the NFL last year, but that was last year. This is the NFL, where we see teams go from cellar dwellers to playoff teams the next season on a regular basis. Houston’s defense is scary good with names like J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, Brian Cushing, and Johnathan Joseph. All of these guys are elite, and this defense is going to dominate. With a great running game and a couple of very good receivers, whoever wins the Texans quarterback job is going to have all the weapons around them necessary to succeed. Don’t forget that Houston also plays in the weakest division in the NFL.

4) Cleveland Browns Under 6.5

The buzz around “Johnny Football” has bumped up the Cleveland Browns win total a little bit too much. Manziel isn’t going to make a big difference for this weak Browns offense in year one, and it remains to be seen if his game will translate well to the NFL or not. Wide receiver Josh Gordon’s suspension is going to hurt this team in a big way, since he was their only real weapon on the outside. Whoever starts at quarterback is going to have a tough time getting the job done with a poor running game and no weapons on the outside. The defense is solid, but they won’t be good enough to get them past six wins in a tough division.

5) Oakland Raiders Under 5

The Oakland Raiders seem to have no plan for the direction of their franchise. This is a team that is stuck in neutral, and I don’t see any way they come out of their slump this season. Oakland plays a pretty tough schedule for a team that did so poorly last year, and the Raiders are counting on a bunch of players who have had injury issues their entire career. The defense looks like it should be even worse this year, and that isn’t going to get it done when the Raiders play in a division with Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL line watch: Don't wait to fade Manziel-less Browns

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

And even though Week 1 lines have been out for a while, there is still value in timing your wagers for the opening slate of NFL games.

Spread to bet now

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

Bettors are on the Steelers by a 2/1 margin and with good reason: The Browns are a typical mess. It’s hard to see how Cleveland plans to move the chains this year, at least until Johnny Manziel replaces Brian Hoyer sometime in late September or early October.

With no dominant team in the AFC North, the Steelers have to be taking a “Why not us?” approach and a division win is a decent way to start. Cleveland has had issues at every turn and even though AFC North battles often turn in to field goal games, this one shouldn’t. This one might go to 6.5 or 7 by the end of the week, so get the cash down now.


Spread to wait on

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)

Things are a bit murky in the NFC South, where Cam Newton is the BMOC but could get off to a slow start after offseason surgery (ankle) and injured ribs.

But wouldn’t you still rather have a wheelchair-bound Newton than run-of-the-mill veteran Josh McCown, who was born in the 1970s and is a place-holder at QB for the Bucs until they can find a legit quarterback?

The addition of Logan Mankins helps the offensive, but there are just too many questions on both teams here to jump quickly. The Bucs were as big as field-goal underdog for this game way back in the spring, but have since moved to as big as 1.5-point faves.


Total to watch

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (48)

Both teams have a vested interest in keeping the score down in this one. The Bills can ill afford to get into any shootouts, especially on the road. Their lack of offense in the preseason shows that there’s still much work to do.

The Bears know that Jay Cutler is never too long a cab ride away from a four-interception game. There’s also the uncertainty of exactly how the referees will call contact on WRs this season. It all adds up to an Under play - there is talk that officials will keeps flags in their pockets to avoid the types of play stoppages that occurred in the exhibitions - especially with a hefty number like 48.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

Sunday, Sept. 7th

New Orleans at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 14-7 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Atlanta: 8-3 Under with a total of 49.5+ points

Minnesota at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 12-6 ATS in dome stadiums
St. Louis: 12-22 ATS in the first two weeks of the season

Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 7-14 ATS at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh: 10-2 Under as a home favorite

Jacksonville at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 7-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents
Philadelphia: 3-13 ATS in home games

Oakland at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 6-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
NY Jets: 26-13 Under as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Cincinnati at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 4-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Baltimore: 9-4 Under playing on artificial turf

Buffalo at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 3-11 ATS as a road underdog
Chicago: 7-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents

Washington at Houston, 1:00 ET
Washington: 7-3 ATS vs. AFC South opponents
Houston: 0-6 ATS as a favorite

Tennessee at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 10-22 ATS vs. AFC West opponents
Kansas City: 26-11 Under at home in September

New England at Miami, 1:00 ET
New England: 13-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Miami: 9-1 Under vs. division opponents

Carolina at Tampa Bay, 4:25 ET
Carolina: 7-1 ATS as a road underdog
Tampa Bay: 32-11 Under in the first two weeks of the season

San Francisco at Dallas, 4:25 ET
San Francisco: 9-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Dallas: 10-3 Over as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

Indianapolis at Denver, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 4-9 ATS as a road underdog
Denver: 21-9 ATS as a favorite


Monday, Sept. 8th

NY Giants at Detroit, 7:10 ET
NY Giants: 18-5 ATS away vs. NFC North opponents
Detroit: 5-14 ATS playing on artificial turf

San Diego at Arizona, 10:20 ET
San Diego: 23-10 ATS in dome stadiums
Arizona: 12-4 Under in the first half of the season

 

[ballerhanz]

2014 NFC Season Preview

August 25, 2014


2014 NFC Season Preview

The Times Are A Changing

The NFC has long been the stepchild conference in the NFL … until lately.

Looking back, since 1990 the AFC holds a 757-712-3 SU and 722-698-52 ATS edge over the NFC in head-to-head non-conference competition. Over the last three years, however, the NFC is closing ground – fast.

That’s confirmed by a flip-flopped 87-108 SU and 90-97-8 ATS mark by the AFC over the NFC in these contests over the last three seasons.

Initial thought was a lot of the recent numbers correlate to the recent uprising of the NFC West. Not true. The NFC South has actually held the upper hand the past three seasons in these non-conference clashes, sporting a division best 30-18 SU and 26-21-1 mark.

The NFC West is right behind the South at 30-20 SU and 28-19-3 ATS. Meanwhile, the slowly deteriorating NFC East brings up the rear at 22-27 SU and 21-27-1 ATS in these matchups.

Over Blown

Speaking of non-conference tilts, the high-scoring NFL last season set a benchmark record in these games in the Over/Under totals.

Games involving these two opposite conference foes went 50-15 ‘OVER’ the in head-to-head competition.

Games in which the Over/Under total was set at 41 or fewer points flew ‘OVER’ 14 of the 16 times.

Quick Outs

-- Since the American Professional Football Association became the National Football League in 1922, the Chicago Bears are the only team not to change its name or city.

-- The Dallas Cowboys haven’t played in Dallas since 1971.

-- The St. Louis Rams were the first team in the league to use logos on their helmets.

NFC East Division

DALLAS

TEAM THEME: TICK, TICK, TICK…
This much we know for sure about Jerry Jones. If he didn't have a strong ticker, he would be sitting alongside Tom Landry watching Cowboys games from afar. It wasn't bad enough for Jones to endure three consecutive 8-win seasons in which 15 of the 24 losses came by a touchdown or less – including an astonishing five losses by a field goal or less last year. JJ was also forced to live through the discomfiture of knowing a win in any of the last three season finales would have resulted in a playoff berth. Talk about taxing the heart. The question begs: how long will he keep head coach Jason Garrett on the sidelines? Dallas' woes are certainly not the fault of the offense. It's the defense that keeps Jones up at night popping nitroglycerin. Ranked dead-last in the league in 2013, crippling news came on the first day of the OTA's this spring when LB Sean Lee, the leader of the defense, injured his knee. Coupled with the departure of Pro Bowl DE Demarcus Ware to Denver, a cardiologist is standing by. With reliable TE Jason Witten back as one of Tony Romo's favorite targets, the QB's full recovery from surgery on a herniated disk is imperative. As bad as Romo's injury was, it's clearly better than the triple bypass Jones has avoided the last few years.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys are 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS in Game Sixteen since 2000, the worst in the NFL.

NEW YORK GIANTS

TEAM THEME: 39 STEPS
When your season starts atop a banana peel, there is little else one can do other than to prepare for the fall. And fall they did. Mightily. A 0-6 start for the first time since 1976 put the Giants in a hole from which they were never able to recover. So how is it, you ask, that a team who improved its defense 50 YPG on the season missed out on the playoffs? Just ask QB Eli Manning, who endured a career-high 39 sacks last year, requiring ankle surgery in the off-season. Consequently, he tossed a league-high 27 INT’s while finishing the season with a career-low 69.4 QB Rating. The results were an offense that slipped 48 YPG. To help shore things up on the attack side, New York selected WR Odell Beckham (LSU) with its 1st-round pick in this year's draft. He'll certainly push Victor Cruz and recently re-acquired Mario Manningham for starting honors. On the defensive front, Tom Coughlin picked up Walter Thurmond from the Super Bowl champs and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie from Denver, but will need a return to form from Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5 sacks in 2011). Rest assured, Eli was busy viewing plenty of film in the off-season. For what it's worth, don't offer up a viewing of Alfred Hitchcock's classic, ‘The 39 Steps’ to Manning anytime soon. He'll likely run for cover.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Giants are 1-6 ATS all-time as favorites vs. the AFC South.

PHILADELPHIA

TEAM THEME: SOMETHING SPECIAL IN THE AIR
As promised, the Eagles came with everything they had en route to winning 10 games in Chip Kelly’s NFL debut last season. Aside from setting franchise records on offense for points, TD’s and total yards, Philadelphia's questionable defense also managed to hold two foes (Chicago and Detroit) to season-low yards late in the season. Imagine what happens if continued improvement is met on both sides of the ball this year? First-round pick DE Marcus Smith was an outstanding pass rusher at Louisville, and should make the transition to LB in Kelly's 3-4 defense. The offense brings in WR’s Jordan Matthews and Josh Huff (former Kelly pupil from Oregon), high picks in this year's draft for emerging QB Nick Foles – who lit up the airwaves with the top QB Rating in the league last year (119.2) on 29 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Along with the return of Jeremy Maclin, who missed all of 2013 with a torn ACL after posting three straight seasons of over 800 yards receiving, DeSean Jackson's departure should prove to be a moot point by season's end. Add in dynamic Darren Sproles for a change of pace in the backfield with superstar LeSean McCoy, and Kelly's offense should be more prolific than ever. When it comes to preparing a game plan, no coach in the league is more thorough than the frenetic Kelly. The man never tires.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chip Kelly is 20-1 SU away versus either college conference or NFL division foes in his career.

WASHINGTON

TEAM THEME: RG YEAR III
Like the Browns, the Redskins cycle through head coaches like Lance Armstrong manufactures lies, with Jay Gruden the 9th new Washington coach since 1999. It's what happens when you've had only three winning seasons post 1999. And it's what happened to Mike Shanahan after going 24-40 in his tenure with Dan Snyder. Last year's drop-off (from 10 wins to 3) was dramatic, yet understandable. RGIII hit the sophomore wall before bowing out with another knee injury after 13 games – while the team coughed up 34 turnovers as opposed to 16 in 2012. A season-ending 8-game losing streak was the topper, especially given the fact they actually outgained foes 22 YPG in the process. No one works harder than Griffin, the 2012 Rookie Of The Year, who poured in many hours during the offseason to fine-tune his game. If Griffin is right, Gruden can expect the passing game to be back on track with newly acquired DeSean Jackson lining up opposite Pierre Garcon, and the return from injury of emerging TE Jordan Reed. The defense is led by Brian Orakpo at OLB, while Jason Hatcher comes over from Dallas to join Barry Cofield on the defensive line after recording 11 sacks last season for the Cowboys. Should it all come together, look for the Hogs to be sneaky-good in a tough-as-nails division in 2014.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Redskins last division title was in 1999.

NFC North Division

CHICAGO

TEAM THEME: AFTER THE LOVIN'
With sophomore head coach Marc Trestman now firmly entrenched in the Windy City, he'll be hoping to do exactly what his predecessor, Lovie Smith, did in his 2nd year on the job – take his team to the playoffs. Anything less will be a disappointment for a team that has averaged more than 9.5 wins per season the last nine years. To do so, the Bears will need to do a better job down the stretch as they’re just 6-12 SU and 5-12-1 ATS during the final six games of the season the last three years. It all starts with the defense, one that slipped dramatically last season (-80 YPG). As a result, out goes Julius Peppers; in comes DE Jared Allen from Minnesota and LB D.J. Williams from Denver. On the other side of the ball, the offense improved 72 YPG and welcomes back the entire OL that started all 16 games last year. The pieces are in place, should they stay healthy. And speaking of which, what to do should oft-injured QB Jay Cutler become sidelined once again? Watch David Fales from San Jose State, Chicago's 6th round choice in this year's draft. The word is QB guru-coach Terry Shea insists Fales has all the tools and is the real deal. Remember, you read it here.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bears are 14-6 SU in their first four games of the season since 2009.

DETROIT

TEAM THEME: THE SAME OLD SONG
For the second-year in a row, the Lions managed to dominate in the stats, yet end the season on the losing side of the ledger. Despite the statistical anomaly, Jim Schwartz was dispatched (now DC at Buffalo) in favor of Jim Caldwell, former Colts boss. Caldwell is widely recognized as a quarterback guru, having worked with Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco among others. Lions QB Matthew Stafford figures to benefit from Caldwell's tutoring. And with Detroit having slowly built a competitive team by developing its No.1 draft choices over the years, this outfit could well be a sleeper. Looking back, the Lions have stockpiled the likes of WR Calvin Johnson in 2007, Stafford and TE Brandon Pettigrew in 2009, along with defensive linemen Ndamakong Suh, Nick Fairley and Ziggy Ansah in three of the previous four drafts – not to mention stud LT Riley Reiff in 2012. Add in this year's top pick TE Eric Ebron from North Carolina, who could be a major contributor almost immediately in the Lions' two-tight end sets, and the talent is there. Toss in an offensive line that returns intact, along with a healthy RB in Reggie Bush, and just like that this could be the year of the Lion in the NFC North. Then again, this song has been sung over and over in recent years.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lions will host only one team this season that owned a winning record last year.

GREEN BAY

TEAM THEME: ON THE MEND
Quick. Fill in the blank: Aaron Rodgers is to the Packers is what [blank] was to the Colts. Whether you answered Peyton Manning or Johnny Unitas, you get the picture. Much like Indianapolis' massive descent in 2011 when they went from a 12-time playoff squad to a 2-win team when Manning was injured and forced to miss the season, Green Bay got a taste of the same thing last season when Rodgers broke his collarbone in Game Eight of the campaign. After a 2-5-1 SU and 1-7 ATS slide, Rodgers returned to lead his troops to a season-ending, playoff clinching victory… keeping a 4-year playoff streak intact. Rodgers returns and with it, the Packers become the favorite to capture NFC North honors this season. Also returning from the injury list, on the other side of the ball, is stud LB Clay Matthews. Joining Matthews this year is perennial Pro Bowler Julius Peppers. Along with top draft pick FS Ha Ha Clinton Dix (can't wait to hear Marv Albert call that one…), Green Bay is making a concentrated effort to shore up its stop troops, knowing full well that 'defense' is a considered a foreign language inside this division. In other words, he who plays it best will likely capture the division crown.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: From 1939-2001 the Packers were 13-0 SU at home in playoff games. They've gone 2-5 since.

MINNESOTA

TEAM THEME: ZIM AND VIGOR
When the Vikings showed Leslie Frazier the door and inked former Cincinnati DC Mike Zimmer as their new boss, little did the spirited coach realize what he was biting off. Inheriting the worst scoring defense in the league (30.0 PPG) and a team that coughed up more than 400 yards on ten different occasions last year, Zimmer sees the cup as half-full. His blunt demeanor – he called Bobby Petrino a “gutless bastard” – was called out on HBO's 'Hard Knocks' during his stay with the Bengals. He lives by a great quote from Vince Lombardi, who said, “'If you grab your players' hearts, they'll follow you anywhere.” To which Zimmer says, "That's what I want to do. I want to grab these players' hearts and get them to follow me." Leading the charge will be star RB Adrian Peterson, who appears to be back in top form after suffering a myriad of injuries last year. He spearheads an offense that has seen its stats improve steadily each of the last three years. The biggest question mark is who will be behind center? It appears that Matt Cassel will get the nod at QB – at least to start the season – as Christian Ponder seems to have worn out his welcome, with rookie Teddy Bridgewater awaiting his turn. Meanwhile, the defense has a new look after losing stud DL Jared Allen.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Vikings will face only three teams that owned a winning record last season.

NFC South Division

ATLANTA

TEAM THEME: BIRDS IN FLIGHT
What a difference a year makes, especially to an injury-riddled NFL squad. QB Matt Ryan will have his full contingent of wideouts in place to start 2014, as Julio Jones returns from a foot injury that limited him to just five games last year. Meanwhile, Harry Douglas had a breakout season in his place, and the pair will join veteran Roddy White for the Falcons' receiving corps. The missing piece, of course, is TE Tony Gonzalez, who will now be in the CBS studio post-retirement. Steven Jackson was also limited by injuries last season, rushing for just 543 yards in 12 games, and could be pushed at some point by rookie Devonta Freeman out of Florida State. After picking up Osi Umenyiora from the Giants before last season, Mike Smith added to his defensive line during this offseason by grabbing free agents Paul Soliai from Miami and Tyson Jackson from KC before nabbing DT Ra'shede Hageman in the draft. But the biggest addition for the Dirty Birds might have been 1st-rounder Jake Matthews, who should step into the starting lineup immediately at RT. With seven losses coming by 7 or less points last season, and both Matty Ice and head coach Mike Smith in off their first-ever losing season since pairing up six years ago, the Falcons have the look of a mission team ready to fly. And to help matters, a soft non-conference slate features only two foes with winning records last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons are 19-6 ATS at home with revenge under Mike Smith.

CAROLINA

TEAM THEME: CAM-O-FLAGE
Coming off a successful 12-4 campaign, you would expect most of last year's look to be the same, but you would be wrong. Sure, the offensive backfield will have a familiar feel, with QB Cam Newton back after off-season surgery, and some combination of DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert toting the football. But while Greg Olson is back at TE, the rest of the offensive line is in complete flux, and Ron Rivera may have to employ LSU rookie G Trai Turner in the starting lineup. That's not to mention the Greg Hardy domestic mess turning into a PR disaster. Newton's receiving corps will be made up of free agents Jericho Cotchery and Jason Avant replacing Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell, plus FSU rookie Kelvin Benjamin working into the mix at some point. Defensively, Luke Kuechly is all over the field and is now one of the very best in the game. But who knows if Hardy (aka The Kraken) can settle his legal issues before the season gets underway? Rest assured, these Cats will look to rely on a stop-unit that ranked No. 2 in scoring defense (15.1 PPG) last year. Will it be enough to put them in back-to-back playoff years for the first time ever in franchise history? We think not.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: No team has ever repeated as division champion since the inception of the NFC South in 2002.

NEW ORLEANS

TEAM THEME: THE BEIGNETS ARE BACK
This is one of those teams that looks virtually the same as last year, and if you're a Saints fan that's a good thing. While rebounding from seven wins in 2012 to twelve victories last season, New Orleans made a dramatic reversal of fortune where it counted the most – on defense. New DC Rob Ryan's schemes met with a startling 139 YPG improvement. And to illustrate the impact Ryan had, the Saints' defense allowed ZERO opponents to gain season-high (or 2nd high) yardage last year, as opposed to coughing up the same number 11 times in 2012. To top it off, free agent DB Champ Bailey and 3-time Pro Bowl safety Jairus Byrd from the Bills have been added to shore up Ryan's secondary. On the flip side, 35-year old Drew Brees is getting longer in the tooth these days but instead of age, we see a savvy, experienced veteran primed to make a super run in 2014. An improved offensive line and a new toy in 1st-round pick WR Brandin Cooks (led the nation with 133 YPG at Oregon State last year) will help Brees forget about counting candles on his cake. With a schedule that finds none of their first seven opponents sporting a winning record last year, and only one of their eight road games against a winning opponent, look for the Saints to make a big push for conference honors this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Teams are 4-22 SUATS between the threes (+3 to -3) in games after facing the Saints since 2010.

TAMPA BAY

TEAM THEME: LOVIN' IT
When last season ended, the Bucs gave the boot to HC Greg Schiano and brought in Lovie Smith. And with him comes a new recipe for success. That's because, after a 5-11 season in his first season with Chicago in 2004, Lovie's Bears averaged almost 10 wins per season thereafter. Coming over with Smith is former Chicago backup QB Josh McCown, whose 13 TD's and 1 INT last season earned him a sparkling QB Rating of 109.0. He'll look to spark an offense that gained the fewest amount of yards in the league (2,820) last season. Also back is RB Doug Martin who, after a monster rookie campaign in 2012, will attempt to make a comeback from a torn labrum that ended his season last year after just six games. The receiving corps should be large and in charge, as 6'5” draft choices Mike Evans (Texas A&M) and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Washington) join veteran Vincent Jackson in the aerial attack. New DC Leslie Frazier loses CB Darrelle Revis but welcomes back LB Lavonte David, who has become one of the NFL's top defensive players with 219 solo tackles in his first two seasons. A soft schedule featuring only three opponents with winning records last year paves the way for a new love-in by the Bay beginning this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Teams who finished last, or tied for last, have won the NFC South 11 years in a row the following season.

NFC West Division

ARIZONA

TEAM THEME: HEADED TO THE PROMISED LAND
After surprising the league with 10 wins in his first season with the Cardinals last year, Bruce Arians will be looking to buck a bit of history in 2014. That's because the last three times the Arizona managed to avoid a sub .500 season, they reverted back to their losing ways each year thereafter – going 5-11, 4-12 and 6-10. So what's in the cards for the Cards this season, you ask? It all starts with Arians, a starting QB at Virginia Tech and former offensive coordinator with both Alabama and the 2008 Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, who infused life into a lethargic offense and is promising even more 2014. Not finished there, he immediately went to work in the offseason repairing the secondary with 1st-round SS Deone Bucannon and free-agent signee Antonio Cromartie. Playing alongside Patrick Peterson instantly upgrades the defense. If dangerous Tyrann Mathieu can also return from the serious knee injury that ended his breakout rookie season, the secondary will be a source of pride. Coincidentally, Zona's new-look offense improved 83 YPG, cracking the 400-yard plateau for the first time since 2009 (four times). Along with a defense that was 21 YPG better last year than in 2012, we say move over Seattle and San Fran, there's a new guy in the neighborhood and in these parts they call him the Boss. B-R-U-C-E…

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Arians is 16-3 SU and 15-2-2 ATS as an NFL head coach versus sub .600 opponents.

ST. LOUIS

TEAM THEME: A NEW LISTING
After taking over a team in 2012 that averaged three wins a season the previous five years, Jeff Fisher has clearly brought the Rams back to respectability, despite residing in the challenging NFC West. However, respectable doesn't cut it in the Fisher household. Not for a coach that has suffered only seven losing seasons in 18 full years as a head coach in the NFL. After winning the NFC West in 2012, St. Louis tumbled to 1-5 in the division last year. With that, Fisher went to work, putting together a huge draft this spring. Two 1st-rounders should start immediately as Greg Robinson will bookend the offensive line opposite Jake Long, while Aaron Donald should jump right in at defensive tackle. In addition, two other selections should contribute sooner rather than later in CB LaMarcus Joyner from FSU and RB Tre Mason from Auburn. With QB Sam Bradford out for the season with a torn ACL, Shaun Hill is first in line as his replacement. And while the Rams’ receiving contingent is small, Chris Givens, Austin Pettis and Tavon Austin are lightning-quick and can certainly stretch the field. Aside from life without Bradford, the biggest hurdle this year will be taking on the 3rd toughest strength of schedule in the league, with no less than 10 games against foes that finished with a winning record last season. It's what comes from living in the high-priced neighborhood they do.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rams are 1-31 SU and 7-25 ATS as division home dogs of 3 or more points.

SAN FRANCISCO

TEAM THEME: GOLD DIGGERS
Okay, before we begin here's another of our famous bar bets guaranteed to have your designated-driver working overtime: name the only two teams in the NFL that ran more plays than they passed last year. If you guessed San Francisco and… Seattle… you're a winner! Of course, a good part of the answer lies in the legs of each team's quarterback, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson, who are scramblers supreme. Once again, Kaepernick has a wealth of veteran talent to work with as Stevie Johnson (Buffalo) and Brandon Lloyd (New England) join standout receivers Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin. And that doesn’t even include star TE Vernon Davis – nor did we mention rookie WR Bruce Ellington. Same story at RB where the 1-2 punch of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter has been entrenched for several seasons, but could be challenged by 2014 2nd-round draft choice Carlos Hyde and the possible return to health of Marcus Lattimore, who sat out last season with the knee injury he suffered in his last year at South Carolina. Star LB Patrick Willis and DE Justin Smith headline a defense that's been Top 10 every year since Jim Harbaugh's arrival. Yes, there sure is a lot to like about the Niners as, according to Aldon Smith, this team is loaded… in more ways than one.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last time San Francisco won a Super Bowl was 20 years ago.

SEATTLE

TEAM THEME: TAG, YOU'RE IT
It can be said that Super Bowl champions are often built by giving up future luxuries in order to win right now… such is the case with the Seahawks. Their first draft pick in this year's draft was #45 after trading down, and they had just three of the first 108 selections. Will it affect this year’s talent-laden roster? Hardly, as there are not many weak links to be found. It's hard to feel sorry for a defense that has three Pro Bowlers returning in the secondary, and an offensive attack that adds a playmaker to the full-time lineup in perennial Pro Bowler Percy Harvin, who missed most of the season. The 12th man should be ready to raise some hell once again, especially after winning 17 of 18 home games the past two seasons. But before he prepares to lose his voice, it should be noted that Super Bowl winners have had a tough row to hoe the following year – just ask the Ravens and Giants the past two seasons – as they become the top priority game on each opponent's schedule. Then there's a murderous slate to tackle, the 7th toughest Strength of Schedule in the league against foes .556 overall and .575 away, including six road foes that won 10 or more games in 2013. Let's see what happens in 2014 to a team that led the league in net TO's (+27) last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Seahawks are 1-23 SU away vs. .666 or greater AFC West opponents, including 18 losses in a row.

Not trying to be a dick, but as a long-suffering Rams fan, I know that's not true. Unless you mean to say they had the best record within the division itself when they went 4-1-1. Anyway, great information as always. Looking forward to it all season.