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[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 8

October 26, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL Week 8 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 9-4

Against the Spread 7-6

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 7-6

Against the Spread 9-4

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-7


NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 82-35-1

Against the Spread 62-53-3


Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 59-49-1

Against the Spread 54-61-3

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 62-56


Biggest Favorite to Cash

The Broncos (-9) cruised past the Chargers on Thursday night to improve to 5-0 at home. Denver started the season at 0-3 ATS, but the Broncos have cashed in four consecutive games, while hitting the favorites/over combination each time during this stretch.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Carolina (+6) lost to Seattle at home for the third straight season, but the Panthers covered in a 13-9 loss. The Seahawks scored a late touchdown to take the four-point lead, just like last season on opening day when Seattle topped Carolina, 12-7.

Home Sweet Home

Home teams weren't great from a straight-up perspective, going 7-6, but the hosts posted a solid 9-4 ATS record. Among the home underdogs to cash, the Panthers, Bengals, Steelers, and Falcons. Atlanta (+3.5) was the home squad in London, but it will be a long flight back as the Falcons blew a 21-0 lead in a 22-21 loss to the Lions.

Several road favorites pulled off double-digit wins, as the Dolphins and Texans each dominated on the highway. Miami (-7) overcame a slow start in a 27-13 victory at Jacksonville, as the Dolphins won consecutive games for the first time this season (coincidentally, both on the highway). Houston (-3.5) seemed like the squarest play on the board, but the Texans bounced back from last Monday's loss at Pittsburgh to dominate Tennessee, 30-16.

Going For the Kill


Both New England and Pittsburgh broke the 50-point mark in their home blowouts. The Patriots (-6) had no problems with the scuffling Bears, destroying Chicago, 51-23, while putting up 31 points in the second quarter alone. The Steelers (+4.5) didn't have a Monday night hangover, as Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 500 yards in a 51-34 rout of the Colts, who had never lost as a road favorite with Andrew Luck at quarterback.

Wild in the Desert

The craziest finish of the day took place in Arizona, as the Cardinals and Eagles went back and forth in the second half. Nick Foles hit Jeremy Maclin for a 54-yard touchdown pass to give the Eagles a 17-14 lead in third quarter. After the two teams exchanged field goals, Carson Palmer connected with rookie John Brown on a 75-yard touchdown strike to put the Cardinals in front for good. The Eagles put together one final drive, but Foles couldn't bring home a win as Arizona held off Philadelphia, 24-20 to improve to 6-1.

Somebody Had to Win

One week after blowing a late lead in a one-point loss at Buffalo, the Vikings traveled to Tampa Bay and built a 10-0 lead. The Buccaneers rallied for a 13-10 advantage in the fourth quarter, but rookie Teddy Bridgewater marched Minnesota down the field for the game-tying field goal to force overtime. Tampa Bay won the coin toss in overtime, but on the first play of scrimmage, the Bucs fumbled and Minnesota returned it for a touchdown for the 19-13 walk-off win. The Bucs fell to 1-6 on the season and 0-3 ATS as a favorite.

Hot and Not

New England has won four straight games, while covering three times in this stretch.

Since starting 0-2, the Chiefs are 4-1 in their previous five contests, as Kansas City owns a 5-2 ATS record this season.

Of course the Jets are on this list for not being hot. New York was pummeled by Buffalo at home, losing its seventh straight game, while going 0-4 ATS at Met Life Stadium.

Totals

The 'under' finished 7-6, including a 2-1 mark in the late kickoffs. Three teams scored at least 40 points, while just two clubs scored in single-digits..

Since beginning the season with four consecutive 'overs,' the Browns have hit the 'under' in three straight games.

The Ravens and Bengals seemed destined for an 'under' as Cincinnati led Baltimore at the half, 7-6 on a 44 total. But the two AFC North rivals exploded in the second half for a combined 38 points to easily sail 'over' the total, as Cincinnati pulled off the sweep of Baltimore, 27-24.

The 'over' continues to hit in primetime games, going 19-4 through 23 night contests, including in Denver's victory over San Diego last Thursday night.

 

[CNOTES]

Books break even in Week 8

October 27, 2014

LAS VEGAS – One would think the result of Sunday’s Week 8 AFC matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts would have turned out pretty good for sportsbooks with the home team sitting as an underdog and bettors moving the visitor from a 3-point road favorite to -4.5 just before kickoff. But that was not the case at The Wynn, where Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations Johnny Avello said his book broke about even with the Steelers routing the Colts, 51-34.

“Actually, the Colts game was a balanced game for us,” Avello said. “We had some people taking back the 4.5 for pretty big money late. So that game balanced out ok.”

“Balanced out” obviously was not the best-case scenario for The Wynn, but on a day like Sunday, things could have been worse. Two other Week 8 games featuring AFC North teams fell on the right and wrong side for the house, with bettors getting the best of the book on the Cleveland Browns and losing on the Baltimore Ravens, who opened as 3-point road underdogs but closed -3 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Cincinnati held off Baltimore 27-24 with Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton scoring the game-winning touchdown with 57 seconds remaining after surrendering the lead a little more than three minutes earlier. The Ravens saw the public back them more than any other team in Week 8 and ended up getting swept by Cincy, also losing the season opener as a 1-ponit home favorite, 23-16.

“Cincinnati was a good game for us,” Avello said. “From top to bottom, it might be the best division in football, competitive-wise anyway.”

The Browns turned in an opposite result for The Wynn, beating up the Oakland Raiders 23-13 in one of the ugliest games of the day both from a watching and wagering perspective. On Friday, Avello had said he thought this was going to be one of Oakland’s best chances to get a victory. As it turned out, the Raiders remained winless on the season and failed to cover the spread for the third time in four games.

“The Raider game, we opened 7 and closed 7, but the result was bad for us,” Avello said. “The Raiders are just a disaster sometimes. It feels like there’s just no game plan, no discipline, the fundamentals are out the window. I feel bad for this kid Carr because he’s a rookie in there, and you can see he’s trying. But he’s probably in the wrong system, there’s no one there to guide him along. It’s a tough spot to be in. It’s just like one catastrophe after another with them.

“If you’re betting on them, you’re going to be life and death. I thought it was a great spot for them, and looking back they probably should have stayed within the 7. You just can’t continuously make the same mistakes week after week.”

Other bad results included the Minnesota Vikings beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-13 in overtime as 1.5-point road favorites after opening +2.5 and the New England Patriots (-6), Miami Dolphins (-7), Kansas City Chiefs (-7) and Houston Texans (-3.5) all winning by two touchdowns or more as favorites.

“They bet Minnesota a little, the Patriots were involved in a lot of teasers and parlays, they bet the Chiefs,” Avello said. “The Dolphins got bet. The Houston Texans was a bad game for us.”

Three other games worked out well for The Wynn, including the New Orleans Saints ripping the Green Bay Packers 44-23 on Sunday Night Football as 1.5-point home favorites. Avello knew he was going to lose money if that primetime game went OVER, but bettors still lost backing the Packers.

“We lost on the over, the (side) turned out ok,” Avello said. “Overall, that game turned out alright. We made a few bucks on that game.”

The Arizona Cardinals winning 24-20 against the Philadelphia Eagles despite closing as 1-point home underdogs after opening -3, and the Seattle Seahawks falling on the opening number in a 13-9 road victory over the Carolina Panthers also helped out The Wynn.

“The Eagles game, there was money on both sides,” Avello said. “We did take some late Eagle money to have more on the Eagles than the other side. We opened Seattle 4, they won by 4, that game got bet up to 6.”

 

[CNOTES]

Inside the Stats - Week 9

October 28, 2014


Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

The first poll from the playoff committee was released Tuesday evening and with it the controversy starts.

While the debate continues we’ll continue to pour through the stats as we review teams’ season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.

Keep in mind it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Oct. 27, unless noted otherwise.

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS

With Halloween now in the rear view mirror, it’s on to the best time of the College Football season – the month of November!

That’s because the combination of stats and angles combine to bring us the best winning edges of the year. Our ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ theory is a dandy, and best of all it’s simple and it wins.

What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.

As we head toward Thanksgiving, here’s this year’s list from our ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2014 season:

Play On Dogs: Alabama, Arizona, Auburn, Baylor, Boise State, *East Carolina, Georgia Tech, Louisville, *Marshall, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, *Ohio State, TCU, Virginia, Western Michigan and Wisconsin.

Play Against Favorites: Connecticut, *Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Kent State, North Carolina, *SMU, Texas State, Troy, UNLV, *Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.

Important: an *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time, or a dog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list.

To kick off the festivities this week we find Arizona, Auburn, Louisville (Thursday) and Virginia on the ‘Play On’ dog list; Texas State, UNLV and Vanderbilt on the ‘Play Against’ favorite list.

There you have it. Now pass the gravy and let the November feast begin

OIL HAZARDS

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

NCAAFB: Penn State, Texas State, UNLV and Vanderbilt.

NFL: There are no plays in the NFL this week.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Once again there were a handful of teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Those teams playing this week include:

NCAAFB: Duke and Illinois

NFL: Arizona Cardinals

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

NCAAFB: Florida and Oklahoma

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Arizona Cardinals are 11-1 ATS versus the NFC East.

The Cincinnati Bengals are 1-9-2 ATS versus losing opponents seeking triple revenge exact.

The Indianapolis Colts are 8-1-1 ATS versus opponents seeking double revenge-exact.

The Miami Dolphins are 2-14 ATS as home favorites between away games.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-9 ATS as home favorites off a home game.

The New Orleans Saints are 7-0 ATS in games after facing the Green Bay Packers, but 0-6-2 ATS on Thursdays.

STAT OF THE WEEK

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog in his NFL career. The only loss was to Peyton Manning in 2005.

 

[CNOTES]

Steelers rounding into form for second half

October 28, 2014


PITTSBURGH (AP) - Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin isn't ready to say his team plays in the best division in the NFL even with all four clubs in the AFC North over .500.

Tomlin says it will all shake out over the next eight weeks. One thing is for certain, though. The Steelers are in the mix. Pittsburgh (5-3) has won two straight heading into Sunday's game against Baltimore behind a resurgent offense.

The Steelers averaged over 40 points and 500 yards in victories over Houston and Indianapolis. Tomlin praised the play of a rapidly improving offensive line and the steady hand of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

Pittsburgh's defense remains a work in progress, but has come up with several big plays in recent weeks.

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Redskins have 'pulse'; RG3 close to return

October 28, 2014


WASHINGTON (AP) - The magnitude of Monday night's upset win over the Dallas Cowboys isn't lost on Washington Redskins coach Jay Gruden.

Gruden said Tuesday the 20-17 overtime victory shows: ''We still have a pulse. Our heart is still beating, and we have a lot to play for still - and that's what that game meant for us.''

The Redskins are 3-5 and have winnable games up next against the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Gruden said quarterback Robert Griffin III is ''very, very, very close'' to returning, but the coach wouldn't commit to a quarterback for next week's game.

He said he's ''not going to rush Robert back no matter what happens'' and praised Colt McCoy, who has an 86 percent completion rate.

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Lions won't offer timetable on DT Fairley

October 28, 2014



ALLEN PARK, Mich. (AP) - Detroit Lions coach Jim Caldwell did not disclose a timetable for Nick Fairley's return after the defensive tackle injured his right knee in a win over Atlanta on Sunday.

Caldwell says he's aware of a report that Fairley could miss around a month, but says the Lions haven't come to that conclusion yet. He says he's received no indication that the injury is season-ending.

Fairley was injured as he hit Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan on a pass play. Lions teammate Ndamukong Suh, rushing Ryan from the other side, crashed into Fairley.

After falling awkwardly, Fairley clutched his right knee and was noticeably limping as he was helped off the field.

Detroit has an open date this weekend, then hosts Miami.

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Bucs trade Barron, Casillas at deadline

October 28, 2014


TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have traded safety Mark Barron to the St. Louis Rams and reserve linebacker Jonathan Casillas to the New England Patriots in exchange for draft picks.

Barron was the seventh overall selection in the 2012 draft, but has not made the type of impact on defense that the Bucs (1-6) anticipated when he entered the league. The Rams gave up fourth and sixth-round picks in 2015 for the third-year safety, who has three interceptions, two fumble recoveries and one sack in 37 games.

Casillas started the first three games of the season before losing the strong-side linebacker's job to Danny Lansanah, who has returned two interceptions for touchdowns. The Bucs sent him and a sixth-round pick to the Patriots, receiving a fifth-round pick in return.

The deals were confirmed Tuesday, shortly after the NFL trading deadline.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 9

October 28, 2014

Thursday, Oct. 30

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA...Saints 0-4 SU and 1-3 vs. line away this season, now 2-10 vs. line away in reg, season since 2013. Saints "over" 5-1-1 in 2014. Panthers 3-1 vs. line at home in 2014 and 11-2-1 vs. line last 14 as host. "Over" and Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.


Sunday, Nov. 2

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SAN DIEGO at MIAMI...Chargers haven't won SU at Miami since 41-38 OT epic 1981 playoff thriller. Bolts now no covers last three in 2014 after 10-1 spread run prior. Dolphins "over" first three at home TY. Dolphins and slight to "over," based on recent team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at CINCINNATI...Jags just 2-7-1 vs. spread last ten away. But Cincy 1-3 vs. line last four TY and Marvin Lewis 8-16-1 as home chalk since 2009. Slight to Jags, based on recent trends.

TAMPA BAY at CLEVELAND...Browns have covered first four as host this season. Bucs 2-1 as road dog, also "over" 3-0 away. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

WASHINGTON at MINNESOTA...Even after Dallas upset, Redskins 1-4 vs. line last five this season and 5-11 last 16 vs. number since mid 2013. Skins also "over" 6-2 last eight away. "Over" and Vikings, based on team and "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at HOUSTON...Birds just 1-4 vs. line last five as visitor. Slight to Texans, based on team trends.

NY JETS at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs have covered their last six in 2014, Jets 1-5 vs. line last six TY. Jets also "over" 7-3 last 10 away. Chiefs and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARIZONA at DALLAS...Cards now on 11-3-1 spread run. Big Red also 6-1 vs. line last seven away. Arians 8-4 last 12 as dog. Cards, based on Arians trends.
ST. LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO...Harbaugh has now won and covered three straight vs. Fisher, all by DD margins. Rams 6-11-1 as dog since LY. 49ers, based on series and team trends.

DENVER at NEW ENGLAND...Home team has won and covered all three meetings since Manning arrived in Denver (NE 2-1). Broncos now "over" four straight, while Pats "over" last five in 2014 and "over" 50-21 reg season since 2010. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at SEATTLE...Pete Carroll no covers last three TY but still 27-15-2 vs. line since 2012. Seahawks, based on team trends.

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH...Ravens romp 26-6 in Week Two. Previous five series meetings in Pitt decided by 3 or fewer. Steel "over" 7-1 last 7 at Heinz Field. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


Monday, Nov. 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

INDIANAPOLIS at NY GIANTS ...Eli now no SU wins or covers last 2 after 3-0 SU and spread run. Colts 3-1 vs. line away TY and "over" 7-2-1 last 10. "Over" and Colts, based on "totals" and team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Opening Line Report: Manning, Broncos faves at Brady, Patriots

Two of the most surprising teams in the NFL this season collide in Week 9 when the Dallas Cowboys play host to the Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) were expected to struggle when the season opened, but they’ve done anything but, rolling into this contest on a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS).

Dallas still has work to do before focusing on Arizona, with the Cowboys wrapping up Week 8 at home against the Washington Redskins Monday.

With Carson Palmer back under center, the Cardinals (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) have won three in a row SU and ATS, including a 24-20 nailbiter over Philadelphia as a 1-point home favorite Sunday. John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, expects to open the Cowboys as 4-point favorites.

“Is it time we start believing in the Arizona Cardinals? I’m not completely sold that they are one of the top teams, but they’re starting to convince me,” Lester said. “Getting (defensive end) Calais Campbell back was huge for them. It’s a short week for the Cowboys, but if everything goes accordingly on Monday night, we’ll probably make them around 4-point favorites.

Denver Broncos (-3) at New England Patriots

It’s Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady for the 16th time, with Brady holding a 10-5 SU edge.

Denver (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) heads into Foxboro with a little extra rest, having dumped San Diego last Thursday 35-21 as a 9-point home favorite – the Broncos’ fourth-straight win and cover. And facing strong teams is pretty much old hat, as Denver has already played six teams that won at least 10 games last year, including five that made the playoffs.

New England (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) has a beat-up roster, yet posted its fourth-straight win (3-1 ATS) in a 51-23 shellacking of visiting Chicago as 5.5-point chalk Sunday. Lester likes the Patriots to keep it going.

“There’ll be no shortage of bets for this marquee matchup, and I expect to see good two-way action where the line is,” Lester said. “We got some early money in on the visitors, so we moved to +3.5 (-120) pretty quickly. The public will be on Denver, but I’m guessing we’ll see some sharps taking the points with the Pats, and I think they win.”


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (pick)

The AFC North is a jumbled mess, making this bitter rivalry game an important one for both teams. Pittsburgh (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) has won two in a row SU and ATS, with its offense going ballistic Sunday in a 51-34 upset of Indianapolis as a 5-point home underdog. Baltimore (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) fell short as a 2.5-point road fave at Cincinnati, losing 27-24.

“Even though the quality isn’t what it used to be, this is still a great matchup every year,” Lester said. “I really wanted to make the Steelers a 1-or 2-point favorite, since I consider the Ravens just slightly better. After the early line movement to -1.5, I was furrowing my eyebrows at some guys around the room.”


Indianapolis Colts (-3) at New York Giants

Indianapolis played zero defense Sunday at Pittsburgh, allowing Ben Roethlisberger to throw for an eye-popping 522 yards and six TDs as the Colts – 5-point faves – lost 51-34. Now the Colts (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) have to hit the road again for the Monday night contest.

Meanwhile, the Giants (3-4 SU and ATS) are coming off a much needed bye week after losing at Dallas 31-21 catching 4.5 points.

“At this spread, I’m expecting some sharps to be on the home dog coming off a bye, but I’d be wary to bring it below the key number,” Lester said. “I think the Colts bounce back on Monday night.”

 

[CNOTES]

NFL line watch: Hold out for prime points on Panthers

Spread to bet now

San Diego Chargers (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins

It’s time for the Chargers to fish or cut bait. They’ve had the bye week to figure out things after division losses to the Chiefs (close) and Broncos (not so close), and now they need a win to stay relevant in the AFC West.

A San Diego win coupled with a Denver loss in New England makes it a race again in the AFC West, but first the Chargers need to take care of business in South Beach. The teams are ranked pretty close in both offense and defense, but the extra planning time and an advantage at quarterback gives the Chargers an edge. San Diego already has two road covers and should make it a third. This spread opened San Diego +2.5 and has already gone down a point. If you're feeling super charged, now is the time to bet the Bolts.


Spread to wait on

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+2)

Early action is heavy on the Saints, with the public no doubt reacting to New Orleans’ huge victory over the Packers Sunday. And it’s likely to continue on the Saints through midweek, which could melt the number down another half-point and make the Panthers more attractive as we get close to kickoff.

New Orleans is a different team on real grass and has yet to win a game on the road – including losses at Atlanta and Cleveland. To be 0-4 away from home and a favorite against a decent team is a bit unusual, so it might be a good idea to hang loose on this game for a bit.


Total to watch

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (55)

The Patriots have had some success against Peyton Manning in the past by disguising coverages, and last year in the regular season New England just let Denver run the ball. Bill Belichick would just love a taffy pull in this one, and when the game is in Foxboro, Belichick usually gets what he wants.

It’s the biggest game of the year in the AFC (again) and the league probably doesn’t want a flagfest. That might give New England corners Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner license to be physical. Under players will probably be cashing winning tickets after this one.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, October 30

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NEW ORLEANS (3 - 4) at CAROLINA (3 - 4 - 1) - 10/30/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 63-42 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 71-39 ATS (+28.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 2

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SAN DIEGO (5 - 3) at MIAMI (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) off a loss against a division rival since 1992.
MIAMI is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 7) at CINCINNATI (4 - 2 - 1) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 6) at CLEVELAND (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (2 - 5) at MINNESOTA (3 - 5) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 2) at HOUSTON (4 - 4) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (1 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (6 - 1) at DALLAS (6 - 1) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (2 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 138-176 ATS (-55.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 138-176 ATS (-55.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 100-138 ATS (-51.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 107-139 ATS (-45.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (6 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) - 11/2/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 82-48 ATS (+29.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 162-125 ATS (+24.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-72 ATS (+20.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (0 - 7) at SEATTLE (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (5 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) at NY GIANTS (3 - 4) - 11/3/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 30-55 ATS (-30.5 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, Oct. 30

New Orleans at Carolina, 8:25 ET
New Orleans: 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Carolina: 16-6 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points


Sunday, Nov. 2

San Diego at Miami, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 13-27 ATS off a road loss against a division rival
Miami: 37-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents

Jacksonville at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 7-16 ATS as an underdog
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Tampa Bay at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 19-7 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Cleveland: 4-12 ATS after playing a game at home

Washington at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Washington: 4-8 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
Minnesota: 5-15 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Philadelphia at Houston, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 2-8 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Houston: 2-9 ATS after playing their last game on the road

NY Jets at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 24-11 ATS off a home loss against a division rival
Kansas City: 25-47 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game

Arizona at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 10-3 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
Dallas: 16-11 OVER after the first month of the season

St Louis at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
St Louis: 9-1 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points
San Francisco: 40-23 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Denver at New England, 4:25 ET
Denver: 6-16 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games
New England: 17-6 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Oakland at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 9-20 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Seattle: 15-6 ATS in home lined games

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 39-22 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Pittsburgh: 44-23 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored


Monday, Nov. 3

Indianapolis at NY Giants, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 24-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
New York: 72-37 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 30

8:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Carolina's last 19 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing New Orleans


Sunday, November 2

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. MINNESOTA
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Arizona is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing Arizona
Dallas6-0-1 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. MIAMI
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing San Diego
Miami is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. KANSAS CITY
NY Jets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Kansas City is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 12 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Houston is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games
Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. CINCINNATI
Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

4:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games ,when playing San Francisco
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco5-0-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
San Francisco10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing St. Louis

4:25 PM
DENVER vs. NEW ENGLAND
Denver is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games at home
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. SEATTLE
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games
Seattle is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Seattle's last 17 games when playing Oakland
See more trends!

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games


Monday, November 3

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

New Orleans at Carolina
The Saints head to Carolina on Thursday night and face a Panthers team that is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 home games. Carolina is the pick (+3). according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30

Game 301-302: New Orleans at Carolina (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.460; Carolina 133.769
Dunkel Line: Even; 52
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Over


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2

Game 451-452: San Diego at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 134.534; Miami 137.978
Dunkel Line: Miami by 3 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1); Under

Game 453-454: Jacksonville at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.104; Cincinnati 133.700
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 11 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+11 1/2); Under

Game 455-456: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 122.456; Cleveland 131.497
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6 1/2); Over

Game 457-458: Washington at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.958; Minnesota 130.481
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1 1/2); Under

Game 459-460: Philadelphia at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 132.073; Houston 133.242
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 53
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Over

Game 461-462: NY Jets at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 122.816; Kansas City 143.891
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 21; 45
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 9 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-9 1/2); Over

Game 463-464: Arizona at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 134.908; Dallas 135.812
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Dallas by 4; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4); Under

Game 465-466: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 125.897; San Francisco 138.657
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 13; 48
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-10); Over

Game 467-468: Denver at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 142.499; New England 143.484
Dunkel Line: New England by 1; 52
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: New England (+3 1/2); Under

Game 469-470: Oakland at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.664; Seattle 135.186
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 15; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+15); Under

Game 471-472: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.551; Pittsburgh 137.412
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 52
Vegas Line: Pick; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh; Over


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3

Game 473-474: Indianapolis at NY Giants (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 137.934; NY Giants 131.955
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 6; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 52
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday
Saints (3-4) @ Panthers (3-4-1)—Battle for first in NFC South between teams with sub-.500 records. Saints are 0-4 on road (were favored in three of four), with three losses by 3 or less points; they lost 26-24 (-6.5) at Cleveland in only other outdoor game so far this season. Carolina is 1-4-1 in last six games after its 2-0 start; they scored total of 26 points (2 TD’s on last 20 drives) in last two games, but are 2-2 at home, beating Lions/Bears. Panthers are 0-4 with even/negative turnover ratio, scoring 11.3 ppg in those four games. Saints lost last seven road games overall; they’re 0-7 in last seven games as road favorites. Panthers are 6-5 as home dog under Rivera. Five of last six Carolina games, three of last four Saint games went over total.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, October 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football: Saints at Panthers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 49)

A vintage performance by Drew Brees has the New Orleans Saints back in the playoff picture in the woeful NFC South Division. The Saints, however, are going to have to prove they can win on the road to secure a spot and their next test comes Thursday night when they visit the Carolina Panthers. Brees passed for 311 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday night's win over Green Bay, but New Orleans has dropped seven straight regular-season road games.

Carolina has just one win since beginning the season with back-to-back victories but still finds itself percentage points atop the division thanks to its tie against Cincinnati three weeks ago. The Panthers blew a late lead last week against defending Super Bowl champion Seattle, squandering several opportunities in the red zone in a 13-9 loss. Carolina has won four of the last five games in the series.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 2-point road faves, but are now -2.5. The total opened 48.5 and is up to 49.

INJURY REPORT: Saints - C Jonathan Goodwin (Questionable, leg), RB Khiry Robinson (Questionable, forearm), RB Pierre Thomas (Doubtful, ribs). Panthers - RB DeAngelo Williams (Questionable, ankle), G Amini Silatolu (Questionable, calf).

POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-2) - Panthers (+1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -0.5

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-50s with clear skies.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 6-1 O/U): Rookie receiver Brandin Cooks had his best game as a professional last week, rushing for one score and catching a touchdown pass in New Orleans' 44-23 victory. Cooks' performance helped take some of the pressure off tight end Jimmy Graham who is still slowed by a shoulder injury and is listed as probable. New Orleans is ranked second in the NFL in total offense and fifth in scoring, averaging 28.4 points.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-4-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Running back DeAngelo Williams declared himself "ready to roll" for Thursday's game, the first time in four games since he injured an ankle. Williams rushed for 210 yards against the Saints in 2012 and will likely share duties with Jonathan Stewart in the backfield for the Panthers, who rank 27th in rushing offense. Defense has been a problem, however, as Carolina has surrendered at least 37 points four times this season.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
* Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.
* Over is 4-0 in Saints last four games overall.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 64 percent of wagers are supporting the visiting Saints.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, October 30


Clear skies on tap for Thursday Night Football

It should be a great night for football in Carolina when the Panthers host the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football.

here should be clear skies and temperatures in the mid 50's for the game, with a very slight three mile per hour wind blowing towards the southeast endzone.

The Panthers are currently -3point home underdogs with the total sitting at 49.


Plenty of line movement in Thursday night matchup

Since opening as a pick'em, the line for the Thursday night matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers has seen plenty of movement. And it has been all towards the Saints.

The Saints have been steadily bet all the way to 3-point road favorites for the NFC South showdown.

New Orleans is winless on the road this season and are just 1-3 against the spread in those games, while Carolina is 2-2 at home and 3-1 ATS.

 

[CNOTES]

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL Week 9 line moves

NFL Week 9 odds have been on the board since late Sunday and have already seen some significant jumps, with wiseguys quickly getting down on those spreads.

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins – Open: -2.5, Move: -1, Move: -2

Early action hit the Chargers and moved this line as many as 1.5 points before coming back to Dolphins -2 by midweek. Most books are dealing this between -1.5 and -2 as of Wednesday afternoon. Miami has won back-to-back games and hosts a San Diego team making a cross-country trip to South Beach.

“I don’t think it has the impact nowadays,” Kaminsky says of the Bolts’ West-to-East trek. “What with the ease of travel and all the comforts they have. There used to be a theory of West teams having the edge coming East for late games, but I don’t buy into those things.”


Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -13, Move: -11

The Bengals have fallen out of favor with NFL bettors after a hot start to the season. Cincinnati opened 3-0 SU and ATS and have since posted a 1-2-1 SU mark and covered just once in that span. Bettors played against the Bengals versus Baltimore last week, which ended up being a big positive for the books with Cincy winning 27-24 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Wiseguys, however, have been partial to Jacksonville all season, covering in two of the last three weeks.

“We opened Cincinnati -13 and pop, pop, pop on the dog,” says Kaminsky. “The Bengals looked great to start the year. I even thought they were the real deal. Then they went in the tank. That win over Baltimore last Sunday was a big decision for us.”


Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings – Open: OTB

This spread has yet to see the light of day with books waiting on the Redskins’ QB plans. Robert Griffin III could return under center but with the inspiring performance of third-stringer Colt McCoy against Dallas Monday, there may be no rush to test RG3’s tender ankle.

According to oddsmakers, Washington would be a +1.5 underdog with Griffin in and a +3 pup with McCoy taking snaps Sunday. Kaminsky, however, doesn’t agree with the spread difference between those two players.

“I think +1.5 is too low,” he says. “I think if (Griffin) plays, it should be Redskins +2. If he doesn’t, and they go with McCoy, it should be Redskins +3.”


Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys – Open: OTB

Another spread on hold is the line for Sunday’s showdown between the Cardinals and Cowboys in Dallas. The Cowboys are being very vague when it comes to Tony Romo’s back injury with contradicting reports floating around on the QB’s status.

According to Kaminsky, the line would be Dallas -4 with Romo active and a pick’em if Dallas has to go with backup Brandon Weeden. Despite that swing in possible lines, Romo’s value to the spread isn’t what it used to be.

“I think it’s diminished,” Kaminsky says of Romo’s impact on the odds. “With the way the offensive line is playing and the way DeMarco Murray is running, it’s not what it used to be.”


Denver Broncos at New England Patriots – Open: +3.5, Move: +3

While this line move isn’t the biggest on the Week 9 board, a significant amount of money has come in on New England as a rare underdog at home. According to Covers Expert Marc Lawrence, Tom Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career. The only loss was to Peyton Manning in 2005.

“We took quite a bit of money on New England already,” says Kaminsky. “We opened Denver -3.5 (-105) and now we’re at Denver -3 (-115). I can’t see it going much further than that, though. The Patriot look good now, but I don’t know how you stop (Peyton) Manning. There aren’t any defense right now that can stop him.”


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -2, Move: +1

This classic AFC North battle is always entertaining and gets the big stage on Sunday night. Pittsburgh opened as a slight favorite at home after a dominating performance over the Colts in Week 8. Regardless, bettors are backing the Ravens and have forced books to jump the fence on this spread, making Baltimore road chalk.

“It’s all Baltimore money. And it’s a bit surprising to me,” admits Kaminsky. “I’m not a big fan of Pittsburgh but they’ve had two good wins over Indianapolis and over Houston on Monday night. Baltimore is the better team right now and I guess you have to give them that respect.”

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, October 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 8:25 PM ET Carolina +3 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Carolina - Over 49.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

Sharp Moves - Week 9

October 30, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 9!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Thursday morning.

(Rotation #460) Houston +2 – The Texans are sort of in a make or break type of week. They know that they are going to be at least an average team this year, but they have to prove that they can beat a team that is above-average at some point, too. Philadelphia certainly is that team, and it is coming off of a loss in the desert to the Cardinals that will surely sting for some time to come. The Eagles haven't played nearly as well on the road as they have at home in the Chip Kelly era, and they tend to make big mistakes in games like these. It goes without saying that the Eagles have been lucky with all of their defensive and special teams touchdowns, and the sharp bettors out there are hoping that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't going to be baited into too many mistakes in this game.

Opening Line: Houston +2.5
Current Line: Houston +2
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on Philadelphia

(Rotation #452) Miami -1.5 – Last week, we suggested that the Saints were the right side to play in a very similar type of a game. The Chargers are coming to the East Coast, and though they have been a bit of the exception to the rule in terms of performance, West Coast teams still tend to struggle in these 1:00 p.m. ET games, even against modest clubs like Miami. The Dolphins though, do seem to have found their stride just a bit, and they are playing like a team again after there were some rough patches in the last month or so. QB Philip Rivers has been fantastic, but the Chargers ground game has once again come to a grinding halt. If the Dolphins can slow their running game once again, the secondary is good enough to give Rivers and the Bolts fits.

Opening Line: Miami -1.5
Current Line: Miami -1.5
Public Betting Percentage: 69% on San Diego

(Rotation #474) New York +3.5 – This stat is well-advertised at this point - The Colts are 8-0 SU and ATS in games following double-digit losses throughout the Andrew Luck era. At this point though, what we're seeing is insane. The Giants are at a crossroads of their season. If they can win this game and get back to .500, there is a really good chance that they can go on a run in the games ahead and get back into the playoff picture. If they lose this game and fall to 3-5, the chances of survival are slim and none, and Head Coach Tom Coughlin will probably once again have his job up in the air. Indy isn't an unflappable team entirely, and we might see that come Monday night.

Opening Line: New York +3
Current Line: New York +3
Public Betting Percentage: 70% on Indianapolis

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 9

October 31, 2014

LAS VEGAS – Quarterbacks will take center stage in Week 9 of the NFL season, as four games featuring star signal callers figure to impact bettors and sportsbooks in a big way on Sunday after all is said and done. Two of the games are marquee matchups made for television while the other two involve key injury situations for NFC East teams, with one QB coming back and the other a game-time decision.

In Sunday’s biggest game, a pair of future Hall of Famers are set to duke it out against each other for the 16th time when Peyton Manning’s Denver Broncos visit Tom Brady’s New England Patriots. Meanwhile, Robert Griffin III of the Washington Redskins is set to return from an ankle injury on the road against the Minnesota Vikings, and Tony Romo of the Dallas Cowboys remains questionable to play when they host the Arizona Cardinals. Finally, Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers looks to follow up his record-breaking performance with a win over the rival Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football.

As of late Friday afternoon, The Wynn still did not have a line up on the Cowboys-Cardinals game due to the pending status of Romo, who was listed as questionable on the NFL injury report with a back injury. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said he was waiting to get more info on Romo before putting the game up on the board at his book while others around Las Vegas had Dallas -3. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had opened the Cowboys as 4.5-point favorites against the Cardinals last Sunday, but that was before Romo suffered the injury in Monday night’s 20-17 overtime loss at home to the Redskins. “I’m sure I’m going to get it up soon here,” Avello said. “There’s no rush for the customers to bet it. You can’t put a game up without knowing. I think Dallas would still be favored, even with the backup. How much will they be favored? Small, maybe anywhere from 1 to 2, I guess.

“With (Romo) in there, then they’ve got to be over a field goal, 4 to 6 I would think. The question is, is he in there at 100 percent, or is he in there at 70 percent? When Tony Romo’s not right, he’s not right. Sometimes when he’s right, he’s not right. We all know how this guy is. He sure has his ups and downs during the course of a season. He’s been pretty consistent this year so far.”

Washington’s third-string QB Colt McCoy led his team to that victory at Dallas, but he is not expected to be under center on Sunday at Minnesota. Instead, Griffin appears ready to go after missing the last six games with a dislocated ankle. The Vikings opened as 2.5-point favorites against the Redskins last Sunday at the SuperBook but have since been bet down to -1, which is where The Wynn opened Minnesota on Thursday after it looked like Griffin would indeed be in line to start.

The Patriots-Broncos game is usually reserved for primetime but will be one of the three later games featured on Sunday afternoon. Avello said he thinks that Brady vs. Manning matchup will still command a heavy volume from bettors who definitely have their own opinions on who the better QB and team is.

“It kind of is in primetime, it’s one of the three 1 o’clock (Pacific time) games, so therefore it’s certainly going to be a focal point of the afternoon,” Avello said. “We’re 3.5 even right now, the Broncos, and I think the players want to take New England in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get off 3.5 at some point. I think bettors learned their lesson on giving the Patriots points at home in that Cincinnati game. But Cincinnati and the Broncos are two different animals.

“Great, great game, at least visually entering it. We’ll see if it turns out that way.”

The Steelers and Ravens will likely wrap up Sunday’s NFL action with the highest total in their history. Currently, the total on the game is up to 48 after opening 47.5 at the SuperBook. The previous high total between the teams of 46 came back in 1997, which was Baltimore’s second year as a new NFL franchise.

The two AFC North rivals have been known to play low-scoring, defensive battles, but this season both of them have proven themselves as offensive-minded teams. Roethlisberger set a Pittsburgh team record with 522 passing yards and six touchdowns in a 51-34 victory against the Indianapolis Colts just last week while Baltimore has scored a division-best 217 points in eight games this season.

“I think a lot of that has to do with Roethlisberger’s performance last week, and that the Baltimore Ravens are averaging 27 points per game” Avello said. “Roethlisberger last week, that was the best I’ve even seen him.”

Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 9 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move

451 CHARGERS X X X
452 DOLPHINS 2.5 2.5 0

453 JAGUARS X X X
454 BENGALS 13 10.5 -2.5

455 BUCCANEERS X X X
456 BROWNS 6.5 6.5 0

457 REDSKINS X X X
458 VIKINGS 2.5 1 -1.5

459 EAGLES 2.5 1.5 -1
460 TEXANS X X X

461 JETS X X X
462 CHIEFS 7.5 9.5 2

463 CARDINALS X X X
464 COWBOYS 4.5 3 -1.5

465 RAMS X X X
466 49ERS 9.5 10 0.5

467 BRONCOS 3.5 3 -0.5
468 PATRIOTS X X X

469 RAIDERS X X X
470 SEAHAWKS 14.5 15 0.5

471 RAVENS X 2 X
472 STEELERS 1,5 X -3.5

473 COLTS 3.5 3.5 0
474 GIANTS X X X

Updates provided by bettingmoves.com

 

[CNOTES]

Quarterly Rankings 5-8

October 30, 2014


This is our second installment of the 2014 NFL season discussing my performance ratings and additional metrics/statistics that help us form opinions on each NFL team. Let’s jump right into the #’s!

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated by grading game by game performance in 16 different stats on both sides of the ball:

Performance Ratings
Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended Turnover
Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS Margin
6 DEN 54.4 3 44.8 2 99.1 1 2 4
3 NO 59.4 1 33.6 24 92.9 2 21 (5)
6 DAL 56.9 2 35.1 17 92.0 3 26 (2)
5 IND 52.1 4 39.8 8 91.8 4 17 (1)
5 BAL 51.2 5 38.7 11 89.9 5 30 0
4 KC 46.4 10 42.1 4 88.6 6 5 (2)
4 MIA 46.2 12 42.0 5 88.2 7 23 2
4 SEA 49.3 7 38.6 12 87.9 8 8 1
4 SF 45.1 14 41.7 6 86.8 9 1 4
6 DET 36.4 26 48.6 1 85.0 10 31 1
5 PIT 50.1 6 33.8 22 83.8 11 32 1
5 PHI 43.9 17 38.3 13 82.1 12 15 (7)
5 SD 47.9 8 33.9 20 81.9 13 24 4
6 NE 46.4 9 35.1 18 81.5 14 29 11
3 WAS 43.7 19 37.8 14 81.4 15 22 (8)
3 CHI 43.9 16 36.4 16 80.4 16 27 (3)
6 ARI 40.7 24 38.9 10 79.6 17 6 9
5 BUF 35.8 27 43.2 3 79.0 18 19 7
3 NYG 43.5 20 35.0 19 78.5 19 4 0
4 HOU 44.7 15 33.7 23 78.4 20 20 4
4 CIN 46.4 11 31.9 25 78.3 21 8 4
5 GB 46.0 13 31.4 26 77.4 22 16 8
1 NYJ 35.7 28 40.0 7 75.7 23 11 (15)
4 CLE 43.2 21 31.3 27 74.5 24 12 6
2 ATL 43.8 18 29.3 28 73.0 25 25 (2)
3 MIN 33.2 30 39.6 9 72.8 26 28 (1)
2 TEN 37.1 25 33.9 21 70.9 27 14 0
3 CAR 41.8 22 29.0 29 70.8 28 13 4
2 STL 41.6 23 27.4 31 69.1 29 4 (3)
1 JAC 32.1 31 36.9 15 69.0 30 10 (10)
0 OAK 31.6 32 27.7 30 59.4 31 9 (7)
1 TB 33.7 29 24.3 32 58.0 32 18 (4)


The Denver Broncos are the top rated team & frankly it’s not close. Not only are they performing at an extremely high level with a 99.1 rating their blended Strength of Schedule is also 2nd toughest in the NFL, a very unusual dynamic – playing so well & versus a tough schedule.

Many will be surprised seeing the Saints at #2 but they are playing solid football overall – however, as we have seen in a few games already this season, their Turnover Margin (TOM) of (5) is the worst of the Top 11 teams in the ratings. As we saw on SNF this past week vs. Green Bay, if they can hang onto the football they remain an extremely dangerous squad, especially offensively.

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Five of the top seven teams are from the AFC

The top 5 teams in the overall ratings are also the Top 5 offenses in the NFL – that is not a big surprise since football has really shifted towards more of an offensive mentality over the last decade or so

Seattle checks in at #8, perhaps below what many expect; however, remember last season although they were in the Top 2 with Denver their TOM was +20 – this season it’s just +1.

Next is my red flag/green light identification. Here I will ONLY use my performance ratings & TOM to identify teams that could be undervalued (green light) by Vegas because they are performing better than many believe versus red flag teams that have an inflated record and reputation in Vegas compared to their true on the field performance.

Red Flag: Cleveland, Buffalo, Arizona

Green Light: New Orleans, Washington, New York Jets

Now let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape. Here are the figures – I simply take each team’s performance rating ranking from first matrix, sum up each division’s four teams and rank with the lowest rating being the toughest (because #1 is the best / #32 the worst):

Division Rankings
Division Rating Overall Rank
NFC East 49 1
AFC West 51 2
AFC North 61 3
AFC East 62 4
NFC West 63 5
NFC North 74 6
AFC South 81 7
NFC South 87 8


Here are the current playoff projections where I use my power ratings to play out the entire season. Each team’s power rating, which can change week to week based on my performance ratings, provides a projected spread on each game (including a home field advantage/road disadvantage variable) which then correlates to a % chance at winning each game.

AFC Playoffs

1) Denver
2) Indianapolis
3) New England
4) Baltimore
5) San Diego
6) Cincinnati

NFC Playoffs

1) Detroit
2) Dallas
3) Arizona
4) Carolina
5) Seattle
6) Philadelphia

Last analysis for this week are my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings; two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.

Weekly Power Rankings
Rank Team
1 Denver
2 Seattle
3 Indianapolis
4 Dallas
5 New Orleans
5 Baltimore
7 San Francisco
8 Kansas City
8 San Diego
10 Philadelphia
11 Detroit
11 New England
13 Arizona
14 Green Bay
15 Cincinnati
16 Miami
16 Pittsburgh
18 Washington
19 New York Giants
20 Chicago
21 Houston
22 Carolina
23 Cleveland
24 Buffalo
25 New York Jets
25 Atlanta
27 Minnesota
28 St. Louis
29 Tennessee
30 Oakland
31 Tampa Bay
32 Jacksonville

 

[CNOTES]

Trends to Watch - November

October 30, 2014


The trick-or-treaters are stockpiled for another year and turkeys are running for cover. That can only mean one thing… the NFL in November is here.

Before you make a move on the pro football games this month it would serve you well to gush over some of the good, bad and downright ugly trends outlined below of NFL teams during the month of November dating back to 1990. Because, the Sir Winston Churchill so wisely once put it, “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina has been able to collect the cash in Charlotte this time of year with a 29-17 ATS record and they will have one chance to do so against Atlanta (11/16).

Too bad for Denver they will be on the road four times this month because they are 37-22 ATS at home and will only have Miami visit on the 23rd of the month.

Bad: St. Louis will have two chances to improve on horrific 15-35 ATS mark and one will be a huge task and the other not as much. Peyton Manning and friends arrive on Nov. 16 and two weeks later Oakland is at the nearby Arch.

Even during Super Bowl seasons, the New York Giants floundered in New Jersey with a 15-30 ATS record and will have a trio of opportunities to either improve or do worse against Indianapolis (11/3), San Francisco (11/16) and Dallas (11/23).

Keep an eye on (Bad): To the surprise of nobody, Oakland is a pathetic 15-29 ATS at home and does not figure to improve in division games with Denver (11/9) and a Thursday nighter with Kansas City.

Indianapolis (19-31 ATS) and Washington (18-29 ATS) also are poor at home, but at least the Colts can improve facing the Redskins at the end of the month.

AWAY TEAMS

Good: Aside from last year, Houston has been a dependable road team in November at 16-8 ATS, but with three home games and bye, the Texans will have to only travel to Cleveland in the middle of the month.

Keep an eye on (Good): With Chicago’s woes, curious to how they react in division games with Green Bay (11/9) and in Detroit on Thanksgiving with their 33-18 ATS record.

Cincinnati has been a solid traveler at 26-16 ATS, but will be severely tested with three in a row beginning the third week of the month, heading to New Orleans, Houston and Tampa Bay in succession.

Keep an eye on (Bad): This is annually when Detroit’s season turns as cold as Lake Michigan and they will have to visit Arizona and New England with a 15-27 spread record.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): Dallas has been a great story all season and they have been quite good handing out digits at 40-24 ATS in November. As long as Tony Romo is playing, the Cowboys will be favored in every game this month.

Bad: The Washington Redskins began to turn their season around in late October. Historically they have not been very good as favorites this month at 12-27 ATS. They might be the people’s choice on Nov. 2 at Minnesota and certainly will be handing out points two weeks later when Tampa Bay is in town.

Keep an eye on (Bad): By the end of the month, St. Louis will have faced a stretch of seven games versus teams who could well be in the playoffs this year. On the last Sunday of the month, they finally catch a break facing Oakland, but they are 14-25 ATS as November chalk.

It will be up to the Kansas City Chiefs to lift the spirits of Kansas City fans after coming so close in the World Series. K.C. however is only 21-35 ATS as favorites the month after the Fall Classic. The Chiefs will be favored against the Jets at home and at Oakland on a Thursday night. But we will have to see about trip to Buffalo (11/9) and when Seattle visits a week later.

DOGS

Keep an eye on (Good): Because Tampa Bay is usually out of contention for the playoffs by now; they are normally underdogs, which have worked to the benefit of Bucs backers at 35-20 ATS. Tampa Bay will have five such roles this month.

Bad: We mentioned earlier the N.Y. Giants are a bad home team in November and are even worse when listed as underdogs at 11-28 ATS. Though the G-Men have three home games, they are against Indianapolis, San Francisco and Dallas, with a good chance they will be dogs in all. This plus a road trip to Seattle (11/9), Good Luck!

Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit had a very good first half of the season at 6-2 and normally this is where the Lions start to taper off. As underdogs they are only 22-39 ATS and fit this role at Arizona (11/16) and at New England (11/23).

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): Dallas is a solid bet here at 25-15 ATS and will be at the Giants on the 23rd and hosting Philadelphia on Thanksgiving.

Keep an eye on (Bad): The St. Louis scheduling nightmare continues with a return engagement with San Francisco on Nov. 2 at their joint and at Arizona the following week. The Rams are 17-29 ATS vs. division foes.

The Chiefs will have to go on the warpath to improve their 16-27 ATS mark against division foes. Kansas City will face Oakland and Denver at the end of the month.