Cnotes nfl december trends/news/ stats/ all you need to know to wager the games!

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 13


November 30, 2014




Overall Notes


NFL WEEK 12 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-6
Against the Spread 7-7
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 10-4
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-5


NFL OVERALL RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 123-64-1
Against the Spread 91-91-4
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 110-75-1
Against the Spread 95-88-3
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 95-90-3
Thanksgiving Day Results


Underdogs went 2-1 both straight up and against the spread last Thursday, as the Eagles and Seahawks captured wins as road 'dogs.


Philadelphia (+3.5) blasted Dallas 33-10 while Seattle (+1.5) humbled San Francisco 19-3.


The 'under' went 2-1


Biggest Favorite to Cash


For the second straight week, Indianapolis (-7.5) helped bettors with another win and cover. The Colts watched Andrew Luck throw five touchdowns as they destroyed Washington 49-27 at home.


Biggest Underdog to Cash


The Chargers (+6.5) trailed the Ravens 30-20 with 6:13 remaining and 33-27 with 2:22 left before QB Philip Rivers rallied the troops on an 80-yard drive. San Diego received a questionable pass interference call in the end zone that set up a one-yard touchdown pass to Eddie Royal. San Diego closed as a plus-220 choice (Bet $100 to win $200) on the money-line.



Home/Away


Home teams went 6-3 in the early games on Sunday. Joining the Chargers were the Bengals and Saints.


Including Thursday’s results, home teams went 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS in the first 12 games.


Early Disasters


Pittsburgh (-3.5) lost to New Orleans 35-32 and the game wasn't as close as the final score. Including this loss, the Steelers are now 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in games played at 1:00 p.m. ET this season. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, its four final games of the season are scheduled at this time.


Pick the Winner


In the first 13 games of Week 13, the point-spread mattered in one just game. Cincinnati (-6) defeated Tampa Bay 14-13 but failed to cover the number. The win helped the Bengals go 3-0 in their rare three-game road trip.


North Exposed


Last week, the AFC North became the first division in NFL history to have all of its teams at least three games over .500 at the same time. Like clockwork, the division went 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on Sunday. The Bengals were the only team to win and not cover.


Southern Comfort


The Falcons kept their playoff hopes alive as they defeated Arizona 29-18 as one-point home underdogs. Atlanta and New Orleans are tied for first place in the NFC South at 5-7 but the Falcons own the head-to-head tiebreaker and their 4-0 in the division.


Totals


The scoreboard operator was working hard on Sunday as the 'over' went 7-2 in the first nine games. Most of the results were wire-to-wire winners too. The 'over' was 6-3 in the 1st half during the early games.


The Rams (52), Colts (49) and Texans (45) didn't need help from their opponents as they scored more than the closing total in their respective games.


Arizona's late touchdown and two-point conversion helped 'over' bettors. The Falcons won 29-18 and the last eight pushed the game 'over' the closing number (45)


The Patriots-Packers game had the highest total (57.5) on the board and it fell 'under' as Green Bay won 26-21.


Notable streaks that were extended and came to a close are listed below.


The Redskins were on a great 'under' streak (5-0) but that ended is they gave up 49 points to the Colts.


The ‘under’ has now cashed in six straight for Tampa Bay.

 

[CNOTES]

Jets look to play spoilers


November 28, 2014




MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-5) at NEW YORK JETS (2-9)


TV/Time: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Miami -6, Total: 41.5


The Dolphins look to stay alive in the AFC playoff race with a road win over the division rival Jets on Monday night.


Miami was unable to upset the Broncos in Denver last week, losing 39-36 but it did cover the spread for the fifth time in the past six games. New York, meanwhile, will come into this one after unexpectedly playing a Monday night game against the Bills in Detroit. The Jets were blown out 38-3 in that game to drop their ATS record to 2-8-1 this year.


The most recent meeting in this series was a 20-7 victory for the Jets as 7.5-point underdogs in Miami on Dec. 29, 2013, but the Dolphins are 5-1 SU and ATS when visiting the Jets since 2008. New York is 2-10 ATS off a division game over the past three seasons and 2-8 ATS in all games this season. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 39-22 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two out of their previous three contests since 1992.


CBs Cortland Finnegan (ankle) and Jamar Taylor (shoulder), and TE Charles Clay (knee) are questionable for Miami in this contest, while DT Muhammad Wilkerson (toe) and TE Jace Amaro (concussion) are questionable for New York. Jets QB Michael Vick (wrist, ankle) is likely healthy enough to play, but QB Geno Smith was announced as the starter.


The Dolphins were close to pulling off an upset against the Broncos last week and QB Ryan Tannehill (2,582 pass yards, 20 TD, 8 INT) was very impressive in keeping his team toe-to-toe with Peyton Manning’s squad. Tannehill threw for 228 yards with three touchdowns and one interception in the game. He has now had a passer rating of over 100 in three of the past four games, and will be up against potentially the worst secondary in football on Monday.


One player who has really stepped up his game for Miami is rookie WR Jarvis Landry (49 rec, 450 yards, 5 TD). Landry had his best game of the season against Denver, catching seven passes for 50 yards and two touchdowns. He’s now caught at least five passes in each of the past four games and has totaled four touchdowns in those games as well. He’ll have no problem getting open against the New York defense.


Defensively, the Dolphins are a very tough team to play against. They struggled against the Broncos last week, but are still allowing just 211.7 passing yards per game (4th in NFL) and 104.2 rushing yards per game (11th in NFL). The Jets offense is miserable and the Dolphins will look to cause a lot of turnovers in this one.


After last week’s loss to the Bills, there is again a controversy at the quarterback position for the Jets. While veteran Michael Vick (604 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) is likely the better option, New York will start second-year QB Geno Smith (1,459 pass yards, 7 TD, 10 INT) on Sunday, and he could be in for a long day against a very good Dolphins secondary.


The Jets would be wise to pound away with both RBs Chris Ivory (579 rush yards, 5 TD) and Chris Johnson (400 rush yards, 1 TD), because even though the Dolphins are not bad at defending the run, they are far better stopping the pass. The Jets will likely try to wear this defense out with a lot of interior rushes in this game and they’ll do their best to stop the Dolphins’ air attack.


The Jets defense is still allowing just 86.2 rushing yards per game (4th in NFL), but it’s the passing game which has given them problems all season long. This team is thin at the cornerback position and they just lack the talent required to stop some of today’s most potent offenses. The Jets gave up 38 against the Bills last game and will really need to find a way to make Ryan Tannehill uncomfortable in the pocket or he will absolutely pick them apart. The potential loss of DT Muhammad Wilkerson (49 tackles, 4.5 sacks) would be devastating for this defense if he does not play.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Monday, December 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football betting preview: Dolphins at Jets
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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+7, 42)

Geno Smith will step out of the revolving door to start at quarterback as the New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East matchup on Monday night. Smith, who has just one win in seven starts on the season, got the call from an apparent lame-duck coach Rex Ryan after Michael Vick struggled in another ugly performance for the Jets last week. Neither quarterback has made much of a difference for the Jets, who are ranked last in the league in passing.


Miami is trying to bounce back from a painful loss at Denver a week ago when it blew an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins have little wiggle room in their playoff hunt that has basically come down to a quest for a wild card berth after losing touch in the division race to New England. The visiting team has won the past four games in the series.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Dolphins opened anywhere from -4.5 to -6 and are currently -7. The total opened 41.5 and is up a half-point.

INJURY REPORT: Dolphins - WR Mike Wallace (Probable, leg), CB Cortland Finnegan (Questionable, neck), TE Charles Clay (Questionable, leg), CB Jamar Taylor (Out, shoulder). Jets - TE Jace Amaro (Doubtful, concussion), DL Muhammad Wilkerson (Doubtful, toe).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s and wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 6 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (-5.25) - Jets (+6.25) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -8.5

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Although Miami is actually in 10th place in the AFC standings, it is just one game behind five teams battling for one of two wild card spots. Ryan Tannehill is having a fine sophomore season with 20 touchdown passes and he's second on the team with 276 yards rushing. Mike Wallace has caught a touchdown pass in his last three games against the Jets but he is dealing with a calf injury and has been outplayed lately by rookie Jarvis Landry, who leads the team with 49 receptions.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Ryan has been scratching his head trying to figure out who should start at quarterback and he's back to Smith, who went 10-for-12 in relief of Vick last week in a 38-3 loss against Buffalo. Smith lost his spot as starter a few weeks ago after throwing three interceptions on three straight possessions in a 43-23 loss to the Bills. New York will most likely be without rookie tight end Jace Amaro who is going through the NFL's concussion protocol, and defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson with a toe injury.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 7-1 in Dolphins last eight games in December.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 72 percent of bettors are backing the Dolphins.

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Dolphins at Jets


December 1, 2014


The AFC playoff picture continues to tighten up heading into December as the Bills and Chargers both picked up crucial victories on Sunday to complicate matters. The Dolphins knocked off both Buffalo and San Diego at home in November, as Miami is right in the mix looking to avoid a letdown with a trip to Met Life Stadium on Monday against the disappointing Jets.


Miami (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) has lost three games this season with the lead in the fourth quarter, falling to eventual playoff squads Green Bay, Detroit, and Denver. The most recent defeat came to Peyton Manning and the Broncos last Sunday in a 39-36 setback, but the Dolphins covered as 6 ½-point underdogs. Miami led by 11 points three times (14-3, 21-10, 28-17), but the Broncos kept rallying back until finally taking their first lead with five minutes left in regulation at 32-28. Ryan Tannehill connected with rookie Jarvis Landry on a pair of touchdowns, including a one-yard strike with one minute remaining to secure a cover.


The Jets (2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS) couldn’t follow up a Week 10 upset of the Steelers, as New York was blown out for the second time by Buffalo this season last Monday night. Rex Ryan’s team traveled to Detroit due to the inclement weather in Buffalo, but the Jets were the team that looked disoriented in a 38-3 blowout loss as short 2 ½-point underdogs. The short-lived Michael Vick experiment went up in flames, as the former Falcons’ standout threw for just 76 yards and was intercepted once prior to being pulled in favor of Geno Smith, who is set to start against the Dolphins.


Smith has been a part of only one victory in eight starts for the Jets this season, while throwing 10 interceptions to just seven touchdowns. New York has covered only twice in 2014, as the Jets have put together a 1-5 ATS mark at Met Life Stadium. Since 2012, the Jets are 5-5 ATS as a home underdog, but have lost each of the past two home meetings with the Dolphins, which includes a 23-3 defeat exactly one year ago.


However, the Jets bounced the Dolphins from playoff contention in Week 17 of last season at Sun Life Stadium, 20-7 as 7 ½-point underdogs. Smith threw for just 190 yards, but ran in the go-ahead touchdown from seven yards out before halftime to give New York a 14-7 advantage. Nick Folk kicked a pair of field goals to put the game out of hand, while the Jets’ defense picked off Tannehill three times as both teams finished 2003 with an 8-8 record.


The importance of this game for Joe Philbin’s squad is paramount with five games remaining inside the AFC Wild Card race. The Dolphins are one-half game behind Buffalo, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Cleveland (all who are 7-5), while San Diego has come back to life with three straight victories for an 8-4 mark. For tiebreaker purposes, the Dolphins have beaten the Chargers, split with the Bills, and lost to the Chiefs, as five of these teams will not qualify for the postseason.


The Jets have struggled on offense this season, but their rushing defense continues to play well, allowing 86.2 yards a game, which is third-best in the league. Miami's ground game seemed nearly non-existent last season (90 yards a game), but the Dolphins have rushed for 124.5 yards a game this season, which is 10th in the NFL.


The Dolphins own a 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS record away from South Florida, which includes a neutral-site blowout of the Raiders in London back in Week 4. Miami has taken care of its business on the highway against under .500 squads, beating both the Bears and Jaguars by double-digits, while allowing 20 points or less in four of six away contests.


Since 2010, Miami is winless in five Monday night appearances, with its last victory under the Monday spotlight coming against the Jets back in 2009. Last season, the Dolphins lost a pair of Monday night affairs on the road, falling at New Orleans and Tampa Bay, as Miami last picked up a road triumph on a Monday way back in 1999 in the opening week at Denver.


The Jets are appearing on a Monday night for the third time this season and the second straight week. Last season, Smith led the Jets past the Falcons, 30-28 in the team’s only Monday night showing as 10-point underdogs, while the previous home victory on a Monday for New York came against this Miami squad in 2011.


The ‘over’ has hit in 10 of 14 Monday night games, while road teams have won four of the previous six on Mondays. Home underdogs have struggled to close out the week, posting a 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS record, as the Chiefs were the lone home ‘dog to win outright on a Monday this season back in Week 4 against the Patriots.


The Dolphins are currently listed as seven-point road favorites at most spots, while several 6 ½’s are hanging around. The total is set between 41 ½ and 42 across the board, as temperatures are expected to be in the mid 30’s with no rain. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

 

[varkeyboy]

Whatchu got?

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Opening Line Report: Patriots favored in San Diego


Just when the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks appeared on the ropes, they put together back-to-back wins that put them squarely in the playoff picture. In fact, as the NFL gears up for Week 14, Pete Carroll’s troops have a legitimate shot to win the NFC West.


In back-to-back games, Seattle (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) shut down division-leading Arizona and archrival San Francisco by identical 19-3 scores, dropping the visiting Cardinals as a 7.5-point chalk and the host 49ers as a 1-point underdog on Thanksgiving night.


Now the Seahawks travel cross-country to face NFC East-leading Philadelphia (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS). The Eagles bounced back from a 53-20 whitewashing at Green Bay by posting a pair of routs, including wiping out host Dallas 33-10 getting 3 points on Thanksgiving.


John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, installed the Eagles as 1-point chalk.


“This is a really good measuring stick for both teams and a potential playoff preview,” Lester said. “You have to wonder if the Seahawks have shaken off the distractions that plagued them early. And let’s see how the Eagles’ Mark Sanchez handles a good defense, because he hasn’t seen one since taking over. I expect we’ll have pretty even action on the side, and majority will be on the over.”




New England Patriots (-3) at San Diego Chargers


After a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS hot streak, New England finally cooled off in Week 13 at Lambeau Field, falling to Green Bay 26-21 catching 2.5 points. But the Pats (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS), who are still the top seed in the AFC, could find it tough sledding in better weather this week when they travel to sunny San Diego.


The Chargers (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS), looking to bolster their playoff prospects, have won their last three after a three-game midseason slide. San Diego edged Baltimore 34-33 Sunday as a 6.5-point road pup.


“We’ll see if the Pats can bounce back from a physically exhausting game at Green Bay,” Lester said. “San Diego is also in a tight spot after the emotional win at Baltimore. I don’t foresee the Chargers’ defense holding New England under 30 points. The Pats deserve to be road chalk here, but there will be some smart money on the home dog.”




Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)


Cincinnati gained a little breathing room in the airtight AFC North by squeaking out a 14-13 victory at Tampa Bay, while falling short as a 6-point fave. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) took a step back with a 35-32 loss at New Orleans getting 3.5 points.


“The Bengals were the only member of the AFC North not to lose Sunday, but the division remains wide open,” Lester said. “Cincy has been very strong at home, and I thought we should have been a little higher on its side. But there are always going to be Steelers supporters. Under should be a popular sharp
play.”




Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals


Arizona was the darling of the league and bettors a few weeks ago, with a 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS record. But the Cards (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) have dumped two in a row SU and ATS to jeopardize what had been a big lead in the NFC West. Arizona tumbled at Atlanta 29-18 Sunday laying 1.5 points.


Kansas City is also backsliding, following up a 5-0 SU and ATS spree with back-to-back SU and ATS losses. The Chiefs got dominated at home by Denver, losing 29-16 as a 1-point favorite. With that game taking place Sunday night, Lester held off on setting the line, but he’s leaning toward the Cardinals.


“The Cardinals can’t afford another loss with Seattle back on track,” Lester said. “They’ve been perfect in the desert, and it’s a letdown spot for Kansas City. It’s not a terribly sexy matchup in the eyes of the public, but it should be a good defensive battle, and I’d look for the home team to come out on
top as a small favorite.”

 

[CNOTES]

Broncos hurt books


December 1, 2014


LAS VEGAS – It was shaping up like a good day for The Wynn sportsbook on Sunday after the Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots 26-21 to cover the spread as 3-point home favorites. The other Week 13 NFL games that took place earlier in the day were hit or miss from a betting perspective, but the Packers had provided The Wynn with a nice profit, according to Johnny Avello, the property’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations. That is, until the Sunday Night Football game.


“The Packer game was good for us, and the Bronco game was the worst game of the day,” Avello said. “Any profits we had, it took it all. The Bronco game we opened 1, and we closed 1. But the problem was, the wiseguys took us to 1 the other way, and the houseguests took us all the way back on Denver. The houseguests’ money overwhelmed the wiseguys.”


Avello called it “about a break-even” day overall following a 29-16 road victory for the Denver Broncos against the Kansas City Chiefs in a key AFC West matchup. The Broncos were obviously a big public play at The Wynn, but things could have been worse had New England kicker Stephen Gostkowski connected on a 47-yard field goal in the final minutes that would have covered the spread for his team.


“If the guy kicks the field goal, that would have probably hurt us,” said Avello.


The total was also worth watching because the game featured the two of the highest-scoring teams in the league. The total opened 58.5 at The Wynn and closed 57.5, with the teams combining to score just 10 points in the second half after seeing 37 points in the first two quarters to push it “under” the number.


“The total wasn’t that big of a deal,” said Avello.


The Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) and New Orleans Saints (+3.5) both took care of business with wins to stay tied atop the NFC West. The Falcons routed the Arizona Cardinals 29-18 at home while the Saints pulled out a nice 35-32 road victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Neither game impacted The Wynn much.


The Cardinals lost their second straight game after starting the season 9-1 and continue to struggle offensively with quarterback Drew Stanton replacing the injured Carson Palmer. They have totaled one touchdown during their two-game skid, and their upcoming schedule is not doing them any favors if they are still going to make a run at the NFC West title and dethrone the Seattle Seahawks.


“They opened 2.5, the game was bet down to 1.5, so there was dog money there,” Avello said. “The (Arizona) defense is on the field a lot right now because the offense can’t hold the ball. I told ya that out of their next six games, they could probably lose four or more. Now what it looks like is it’s going to be tough going to St. Louis too. St. Louis is playing pretty well right now. (The Cardinals) get Kansas City at home this week, and Kansas City needs this game badly as well as the Cardinals, so it’s an interesting game. Seattle controls their own fate. If they win out, they win the division.”


The most bizarre ending on Sunday involved the New York Giants (-3), who saw a 21-3 halftime lead unravel following the intermission. The Jacksonville Jaguars rallied with two defensive touchdowns after fumble recoveries, and kicker Josh Scobee nailed the game-winning field goal with 28 seconds left for an improbable 25-24 victory. Again, even that result with New York losing its seventh straight game and Jacksonville winning its second of the year did not do too much for The Wynn.


“The coach, even though he’s won a couple Super Bowls, he could be in a little of trouble,” Avello said. “And not because he’s a bad coach, just because the Giants have lost all intensity – everything. They just have no feel right now for playing football, and I don’t think that’s what Giant fans want to see.


“Not a lot of the games were really that bad or that good for us, to be honest with you. I think the Bills game was a bad game for us. The rest of the games were just kind of, won a little bit, lost a little bit.”


The Buffalo Bills defeated the Cleveland Browns 26-10 as 3-point home favorites juiced up to -120 after opening -2.5 at The Wynn. The Browns replaced struggling QB Brian Hoyer with rookie Johnny Manziel late in the game, setting up plenty of intrigue regarding who will start their Week 14 game against the Indianapolis Colts. Cleveland is an early 3.5-point home underdog against Indianapolis at The Wynn.

 

[CNOTES]

Quarterly Rankings 9-12


December 2, 2014




1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter


This is my third & final installment of the 2014 NFL season discussing the NFL SBPI (SportsBoss Power Index) and additional metrics/statistics that help us form opinions on each NFL team.


Let’s jump right into the #’s!


SBPI (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated by grading game by game performance in 16 different stats on both sides of the ball:


PERFORMANCE RATINGS
Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended Turnover
Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS Margin
9 DEN 52.0 2 45.3 2 97.3 1 10 4
8 SEA 48.8 8 44.7 4 93.5 2 20 9
7 MIA 46.4 10 43.7 6 90.1 3 18 3
8 IND 51.2 4 38.7 9 89.9 4 16 (2)
7 BAL 50.8 6 37.4 11 88.3 5 23 3
5 NO 55.7 1 32.5 29 88.2 6 15 (6)
9 PHI 46.3 11 40.9 8 87.1 7 28 (6)
9 GB 51.8 3 34.5 23 86.4 8 13 15
9 NE 48.6 9 36.8 15 85.4 9 9 11
8 DAL 51.2 5 33.8 26 84.9 10 27 (3)
7 SF 40.2 20 44.5 5 84.6 11 7 5
7 PIT 49.3 7 35.3 19 84.5 12 30 (4)
8 DET 36.9 25 45.4 1 82.3 13 21 4
8 CIN 45.1 12 37.1 13 82.3 13 25 (1)
7 BUF 35.8 27 45.0 3 80.9 15 19 9
9 ARI 37.9 23 42.0 7 79.9 16 12 8
7 KC 42.3 17 37.2 12 79.5 17 6 (3)
3 WAS 42.5 16 36.6 16 79.0 18 24 (7)
8 SD 43.8 15 35.0 20 78.8 19 22 (1)
6 HOU 44.4 14 34.3 24 78.7 20 26 11
5 CHI 41.0 19 36.5 17 77.4 21 14 (4)
7 CLE 40.2 20 37.0 14 77.2 22 32 6
5 ATL 44.4 13 32.0 31 76.4 23 31 5
3 NYG 41.4 18 34.8 22 76.2 24 2 (7)
2 NYJ 36.3 26 38.0 10 74.3 25 1 (12)
5 STL 37.7 24 36.0 18 73.6 26 11 2
3 CAR 39.4 22 33.9 25 73.3 27 4 (3)
5 MIN 34.2 29 34.9 21 69.1 28 17 1
2 TEN 34.3 28 32.3 30 66.6 29 8 (6)
2 TB 33.8 30 32.6 28 66.4 30 29 (6)
2 JAC 31.4 31 32.8 27 64.1 31 3 (7)
1 OAK 27.7 32 31.9 32 59.6 32 5 (18)


The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are back in the #1 & #2 spots respectively, just like the end of the 2013 regular season. Last year they finished up with ratings of 95.9 for the Broncos & 95.1 for the Seahawks. However, when bringing SOS into the discussion, the 2013 Broncos faced the #30 SOS compared to #10 in 2014 – showing just how strong this team is playing as not only do they have a higher overall grade but they have faced a significantly tougher schedule. Seattle also has faced a tougher schedule this season checking in at #20 vs. #28 last year; add in the fact they are getting every team’s best shot as the defending Super Bowl champs and Seattle is still a real factor in the NFC & Super Bowl 49


-- Four of the top five teams are from the AFC


Of the top 12 teams overall eleven have a Top 12 offense; lone outlier is San Francisco whose offense checks in at #20


Now let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape. Here are the figures – I simply take each team’s performance rating ranking from first matrix, sum up each division’s four teams and rank with the lowest rating being the toughest (because #1 is the best / #32 the worst):


DIVISION RANKINGS
Division Rating Overall Rank
AFC North 52 1
AFC East 52 1
NFC West 55 3
NFC East 59 4
AFC West 69 5
NFC North 70 6
AFC South 84 7
NFC South 86 8


AFC Playoffs


1) Denver
2) New England
3) Cincinnati
4) Indianapolis
5) San Diego
6) Baltimore


NFC Playoffs


1) Green Bay
2) Philadelphia
3) Arizona
4) New Orleans
5) Seattle
6) Detroit


Above are also the current playoff projections where I use my power ratings to play out the entire season. Each team’s power rating, which can change week to week based on my performance ratings, provides a projected spread on each game (including a home field advantage/road disadvantage variable) which then correlates to a % chance at winning each game.


Currently the AFC has realistically eight teams fighting for six spots. Pittsburgh, Cleveland & Buffalo are all still alive but would really need to close strongly to catch & pass the teams ahead of them. The NFC has 7 teams alive as San Francisco has fallen far back from the pack but still could make a run closing strongly, though unlikely. Amazingly the Dallas Cowboys right now are on the outside looking in, and that very well could be the case come early January.


In the race for the first pick in the 2015 NFL Draft here are the Top 5 with current win projection in parenthesis:


1. Oakland 2.18
2. Jacksonville 3.53
3. Tampa Bay 3.57
4. NY Jets 3.65
5. Tennessee 3.85


Last analysis for this week are my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings. For my blog I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process:


WEEKLY POWER RANKINGS
Rank Team
1 Denver
2 Seattle
3 New England
4 Green Bay
5 Indianapolis
6 Baltimore
7 Miami
8 Philadelphia
9 New Orleans
10 Cincinnati
10 Dallas
12 San Francisco
12 Kansas City
14 Pittsburgh
15 Buffalo
16 Arizona
16 Houston
18 Detroit
19 San Diego
20 Cleveland
21 Washington
22 Atlanta
23 N.Y. Giants
24 Carolina
25 Chicago
26 N.Y. Jets
27 St. Louis
28 Minnesota
29 Tampa Bay
30 Tennessee
31 Jacksonville
32 Oakland

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Looking at the AFC teams.......

Bills—Last made playoffs in ’99, have shot here. Jimbo Fisher told teams that EJ Manuel wasn’t an NFL starter; Bills took off as soon as they benched him for Orton. Kudos to the GM for giving Orton a two-year contract. New owner, chance for the playoffs; exciting year in western NY.

Dolphins—Not sold on Tannehill as the franchise QB, but they’re 7-5 and have shot at first playoffs since ’08. If they don’t make it, would owner Ross (unfairly) fire Joe Philbin and go after fellow Michigan alum Harbaugh as his next coach? Could happen.

Patriots— Belichick’s career record without Tom Brady: 51-64. Proper punishment for Spygate: make Belichick coach the Patriots for three years after Brady retires- their lack of talent at WR/RB is alarming. Brady just makes everything work. One of the all-time greats.

Jets—Fire every football-related person in the building; everyone. Start over like an expansion team; its an easier fix that way. Lot of empty seats in Swamp Stadium on Monday night, a stadium that didn’t need to be built.

Ravens—Allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in four of last five games, a red flag. Only team in NFL to lose this season when they won field position by more than ten yards; teams that win field position by 10+ yards are 64-3 this season. Ravens lost to San Diego Sunday with a 15-yard edge.

Bengals—Marvin Lewis is 97-88-2 as Bengals’ coach, but has no playoff wins; they better not repeat the Bears’ mistake with Lovie Smith and fire Lewis if they don’t win one this year. Cincy just won three consecutive road games; that doesn’t happen much in the NFL. Lewis is a good coach.

Browns—Now the rookie coach has a QB controversy to deal with; star WR Gordon seems to have better chemistry with Manziel, for whatever reason. Hoyer threw six picks in his last six games, but if I’m Pettine, I’m looking to start Manziel for the first time against as weak an opponent as possible. Don’t think the Colts fit that bill.

Steelers—Five of last six Pitt games went over total; Big Ben threw for 435 yards in loss to Saints, mostly after game was already lost. Steelers allowed 11.0/8.9 ypa in last two games, have only one takeaway in last three games, very un-Steeler-like. Play Bengals twice in last four weeks; might need sweep to win division.

Texans—Fitzpatrick had six TD passes last week; where is Houston headed at QB after this year? No way Fitzpatrick is their long-term answer, but Mallett lasted two games before getting hurt, so he probably isn’t either. QB draft class ain’t much this year and there are few other teams (Jets, Rams) who would be looking to add QBs. Going to be an interesting spring, for sure.

Colts—Indy allowed 30+ points in all four losses; they’re 8-2 in last ten games, after opening season with losses to Broncos/Eagles. Colts are 7-2-1 as road favorites under Pagano, very dependable when playing an inferior team.

Jaguars—They play hard, have nice uniforms, a cabana with a pool in the end zone bleachers but only have two wins. In last two games, Jags have nine sacks and eight caused fumbles; they need a more productive offense, just like half the league does. At least they compete hard every week; good things usually follow that.

Titans—Horrible season with an injury-decimated offensive line that is getting the QBs killed. Upset the Chiefs in Arrowhead Opening Day, are 1-10 since and that was a 16-14 home win over the 2-10 Jaguars. Another team with a QB dilemma, but chances are they’ll stay in-house with Mettenberger for next year. Whisenhunt is a good coach, but other than Kurt Warner in Arizona, all his guys get hurt.

Broncos-- Ran ball for 201/214 yards last two weeks, since 22-7 loss in St Louis; did they watch Patriot-Colt game and decide to go same way, to preserve their aging QB? Rushing yards in their three losses: 36-43-28. Trailed at half in three of last five games, converted 18-34 on 3rd down last two games.

Chiefs-- Were outrushed 393-137 in last two games, after 7-1 run which followed 0-2 start. Are 8-42 on third down last four games. Alex Smith doesn't win games, he just doesn't lose them, but if they can't run the ball, then what? Couple of stumbling teams meet in desert this week when Chiefs visit Arizona.

Raiders-- Had been competing well until they got smoked in St Louis Sunday. Don't have a takeaway in last three games, only two in last six; they're -14 in TOs in those six games. Last time they averaged more than six yards/pass attempt was Week 6. It is very doubtful they'll win another game this season.

Chargers-- Looked dead when they lost 37-0 at Miami in Week 9, but well-timed bye gave them time to regroup and they've won three close games since. San Diego is first west coast team to win a game in Ravens' Stadium (1-17). Last four games are a tough gauntlet, finishing with road games at 49ers, Chiefs.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 14


December 2, 2014


THURSDAY, DEC. 4


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


DALLAS at CHICAGO ...Dallas on 1-4 spread slide last five TY, though Cowboys 4-1 vs. line away form home. Chicago had covered last two at home after dropping previous three vs. line at Solider Field. Bears “over” 18-9-1 for Trestman but “under” 4-1 at home this season. Slight to “over,” based on extended Bears “total” trends.






SUNDAY, DEC. 7


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


BALTIMORE at MIAMI...Dolphins 6-2-1 vs. line last nine this season, also 4-1 vs. line as host in 2014. Dolphins “under” 6-1 last seven after Jets on Monday. Ravens “over” four straight on road. Slight to Dolphins, based on recent trends.


PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI...Home team has covered in six of last seven Steel games. Teams yet to meet this season, split last two years. “Unders” 4-1 last five in series though “over” in most recent meeting. Steel on 12-5 “over” run since late 2013. "Over," based on recent Steeler “totals” trends.


INDIANAPOLIS at CLEVELAND...Colts 8-2 vs. spread last ten this season. Also “over” 10-3-1 since late 2013. Browns, however, “under” four straight at home. Colts and slight to “over,” based on recent Colts trends.


HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE...Jags 4-10-1 vs. line last 15 on board. Now 2-4-1 vs. line last seven at home. Though Jax beat Houston in last meeting a year ago. Jags have covered last three in series. Texans 4-2 vs. line away this season. Slight to Texans, based on team trends.


NY GIANTS at TENNESSEE...Eli 0-7 SU and 1-6 vs. line last six TY. Titans 2-8 vs. line last tene TY and 1-9-1 vs. spread last 11 in Nashville, and “over” last three TY. G-Men “over” 8-4 in 2014. “Over” and slight to Giants, based on “totals” trends and Titan home woes.


CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS...Saints now no wins covers last three at home TY after 20-0 SU and 18-1-1 marks previous 20 at Superdome with Sean Payton on sideline since 2011. Saints “over” 8-3-1 TY but “under” first game at Carolina (28-10 win). Panthers no covers last four, now 3-7 last ten vs. line TY. Saints and slight to ‘over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


TAMPA BAY at DETROIT...Bucs have covered 4 of last 5 away TY. Lions “under” 12-2-1 last 15 though ver” in most recent game vs. Bears. “Under” and slight to Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.


ST. LOUIS at WASHINGTON...Skins 2-7 vs. spread last nine TY, 6-14 last 20 on board. Also no covers last four at FedEx Field this season. Rams, based on Skins woes.


NY JETS at MINNESOTA...Jets 4-8 vs. line TY, yet to cover two in a row. Vikes have covered 5 of last 6 this season and 4 of last 5 at home. Vikings, based on Jets woes.


BUFFALO at DENVER...Bills “under” 10-2 in 2014. But Denver “over” 52-28-1 since late in 2009 and “over” four straight at home TY. Broncos 3-3 vs. spread as host TY but 15-7 in reg season vs. line as host since Manning arrived. Broncos and “over,” based on enduring Bronco trends.


KANSAS CITY at ARIZONA...Andy Reid 12-2 vs. line last 14 on reg season road but did get an L in last away game at Oakland. Chiefs have dropped last two after covering nine straight. KC also :"under" 7-1 last eight TYU. Arians has lost last two outings but still on 15-5-1 spread run for Cards, and is 6-0 SU and 5-1 vs. line as host TY. “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at OAKLAND...Niners actually 4-2 vs. line away TY and 3-1 as road chalk. Home numbers (1-5 vs. line) have been worse. Niners also “under” 4 of last 5 and 8 of 12 TY. Raiders “over” 4-1 at Coliseum TY. Slight to 49ers, based on recent trends.


SEATTLE at PHILADELPHIA...Seahawks surging again with covers last 2 and 3 of last 4. They’re 6-6 vs. line TY but Pete Carroll 30-17-2 since 2012. Eagles 4-1 last five vs. number in 2014. Seahawks, based on team trends.


NEW ENGLAND at SAN DIEGO ...Belichick 7-1 SU, 6-2 vs. line last 7 TY. Also “over” 7 of last 9 TY and 52-22-1 in reg season since 2010. Bolts however are 13-5-1 last 19 as dog. "Over" and slight to Patriots, based on Belichick trends.




MONDAY, DEC. 8


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


ATLANTA at GREEN BAY ...Pack “over” 9-3 TY and 12-3 last 15 reg season games, also five straight wins and covers at Lambeau TY. Falcs, however, have covered last three away in departure from previous road-poor form. But they’re 0-2 as a visiting dog this season and 3-7 in role since LY (though did get late-season cover at Rodgers-less Pack last December). Pack and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, December 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (8 - 4) at CHICAGO (5 - 7) - 12/4/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
DALLAS is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DALLAS is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CHICAGO is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, December 7

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BALTIMORE (7 - 5) at MIAMI (7 - 5) - 12/7/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (7 - 5) at CINCINNATI (8 - 3 - 1) - 12/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 63-90 ATS (-36.0 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 4) at CLEVELAND (7 - 5) - 12/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (6 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 10) - 12/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (3 - 9) at TENNESSEE (2 - 10) - 12/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (3 - 8 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 7) - 12/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 51-27 ATS (+21.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
CAROLINA is 72-41 ATS (+26.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 48-24 ATS (+21.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (2 - 10) at DETROIT (8 - 4) - 12/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 52-76 ATS (-31.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (5 - 7) at WASHINGTON (3 - 9) - 12/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 101-139 ATS (-51.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 73-102 ATS (-39.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 73-102 ATS (-39.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 73-102 ATS (-39.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 17-41 ATS (-28.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (2 - 10) at MINNESOTA (5 - 7) - 12/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (7 - 5) at DENVER (9 - 3) - 12/7/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 50-29 ATS (+18.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (7 - 5) at ARIZONA (9 - 3) - 12/7/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
ARIZONA is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 5) at OAKLAND (1 - 11) - 12/7/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 50-72 ATS (-29.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 117-150 ATS (-48.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 27-52 ATS (-30.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 26-50 ATS (-29.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (8 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (9 - 3) - 12/7/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 59-85 ATS (-34.5 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 161-126 ATS (+22.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
SEATTLE is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (9 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (8 - 4) - 12/7/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 164-125 ATS (+26.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 103-73 ATS (+22.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 71-46 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (5 - 7) at GREEN BAY (9 - 3) - 12/8/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 54-31 ATS (+19.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, Dec. 4

Dallas at Chicago, 8:25 ET
Dallas: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after a loss by 21 or more points
Chicago: 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against conference opponents


Sunday, Dec. 7

Baltimore at Miami, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 12-4 ATS after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game
Miami: 14-29 ATS after a 2 game road trip

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games
Cincinnati: 63-90 ATS (-36.0 Units) versus division opponents

Indianapolis at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 55-36 OVER (+15.4 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs
Cleveland: 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Houston: 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after a win by 21 or more points
Jacksonville: 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents

NY Giants at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
New York: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a road loss
Tennessee: 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games

Carolina at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points
New Orleans: 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less

Tampa Bay at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Detroit: 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) off 1 or more straight overs

St Louis at Washington, 1:00 ET
St Louis: 21-8 OVER (+12.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Washington: 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

NY Jets at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
New York: 3-10 ATS off a division game
Minnesota: 10-2 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game

Buffalo at Denver, 4:05 ET
Buffalo: 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
Denver: 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) as a favorite

Kansas City at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Kansas City: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders
Arizona: 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off 1 or more straight overs

San Francisco at Oakland, 4:25 ET
San Francisco: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Oakland: 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

Seattle at Philadelphia, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 106-75 OVER (+23.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Philadelphia: 24-11 OVER (+11.9 Units) in home games off a upset win as an underdog

New England at San Diego, 8:30 ET
New England: 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game
San Diego: 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games after allowing 30 points or more last game


Monday, Dec. 8

Atlanta at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Atlanta: 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog
Green Bay: 26-13 ATS in home games off a non-conference game

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, December 4

8:25 PM
DALLAS vs. CHICAGO
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas


Sunday, December 7

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 9 games on the road
St. Louis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. TENNESSEE
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DETROIT
Tampa Bay is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
Houston is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. MINNESOTA
NY Jets are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road
NY Jets are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Minnesota is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. CLEVELAND
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Carolina
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

4:05 PM
BUFFALO vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Denver
Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games

4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. ARIZONA
Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games at home

4:25 PM
SEATTLE vs. PHILADELPHIA
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Seattle is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. OAKLAND
San Francisco is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against New England
San Diego is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England


Monday, December 8

8:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta

 

[CNOTES]

Bears aim for TNF upset


December 3, 2014




DALLAS COWBOYS (8-4) at CHICAGO BEARS (5-7)


Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -3.5, Total: 52
Opening Line & Total: Dallas -3.5, Total: 51.5

The Cowboys look to get back on track after a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Eagles when they head to Soldier Field for a Thursday night meeting with the Bears.

Dallas hosted Philadelphia in a huge division matchup on Thanksgiving and got blown out 33-10 as 3-point home favorites. The club has now dropped three of its past five contests, going 1-4 ATS, but is a perfect 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in on the road this year.

Chicago also suffered a loss last Thursday, falling 34-17 as 7-point road underdogs in Detroit to end a two-game win streak. The Bears have won-and-covered in three straight meetings with the Cowboys overall.

These teams last met a year ago on Dec. 9, 2013, when Chicago won 45-28 as 2-point home favorites, giving the club a 3-1 mark (SU and ATS) in the past four home meetings in this series, dating back to 1996. The past four games played between these teams have gone Over the total with the average final total score being 54 points.

Dallas is 10-1 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its previous game since 1992, and is also 14-3 ATS in road games after trailing in their previous game by 14+ points at the half in that span. However, the Bears get to face a Cowboys team that is also 5-15 ATS after playing a Thursday game since 1992, and is 6-15 ATS in the second half of the season over the past three years.

The Cowboys had a huge game last week, but were unable to rise to the occasion in a 33-10 loss to Philadelphia. QB Tony Romo (2,718 pass yards, 22 TD, 8 INT) had one of his worst games of the year, throwing for just 199 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He’ll need to get himself back on track, and should be able to do so against a defense that is allowing 270.7 passing yards per game (30th in NFL). Last year vs. the Bears Romo threw for only 104 yards, but tossed three touchdowns.

WR Dez Bryant (67 rec, 952 yards, 10 TD) caught one of those touchdowns last year, but he also struggled last week against the Eagles, catching just four passes for 73 yards. He had six touchdown receptions in the four games leading up to the matchup and should be able to find success against this miserable Bears secondary.

RB DeMarco Murray (1,427 rush yards, 8 TD) continues to play extremely well for this team and was the only bright spot in the loss to Philly. Murray rushed for 73 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries and also added six catches for 40 yards. He will need to set the tone for this team early on against Chicago, just like he did last season when he steamrolled the Bears for 146 yards on 18 carries (6.1 YPC).


The Cowboys defense will need to step it up though, as they’re playing against an offense that is capable of putting up points. Dallas has allowed 30.5 PPG over its past two contests and will need to lower that number in order to finish this season strong.

The Bears went to Detroit and led 14-3 after the first quarter of the game, but were dominated throughout the rest of the contest. Chicago’s defense allowed a struggling Lions QB Matthew Stafford to throw for 390 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. They’ll need to completely alter their defense heading into this one or Tony Romo will certainly make them pay through the air.

QB Jay Cutler (3,105 pass yards, 24 TD, 14 INT) threw for 280 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the loss to Detroit. He played well in the first half, but once the Bears went down, he was forcing the issue. Cutler should be able to move the ball against a Cowboys defense that has fallen off in recent weeks, and are now allowing 244.5 passing yards per game (20th in NFL) and 119.6 rushing yards per game (22nd in NFL).

RB Matt Forte (828 yards, 5 TD) should be able to find success against this defense as well. Forte inexplicably got just five carries against the Lions last game, but he did catch six passes for 52 yards. Chicago will likely feed him early in this game because it just can’t afford to use its best player as little as they did on Thanksgiving when the club rushed for a total of 13 yards on eight carries. Dallas had no answer for Forte last season, as he racked up 175 total yards and a touchdown in the 45-28 romp.

WR Alshon Jeffery (67 rec, 854 yards, 7 TD) gained 84 yards and a touchdown versus the Cowboys last year, and has been unstoppable for this team lately. He had nine catches for 71 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions and has now racked up five touchdowns in the past four games. WR Brandon Marshall (58 rec, 660 yards, 8 TD) will likely fail to reach 1,000 yards for the first time since his 2006 rookie campaign, but he caught six passes for 100 yards against Dallas last December.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14

Dallas at Chicago
The Cowboys head to Chicago to face a Bears team that is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 Thursday games. Dallas is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4

Game 101-102: Dallas at Chicago (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 135.943; Chicago 129.987
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 6; 55
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3 1/2); Over


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7

Game 151-152: Baltimore at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.973; Miami 135.833
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Under

Game 153-154: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.446; Cincinnati 135.468
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3 1/2); Under

Game 155-156: Indianapolis at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 138.050; Cleveland 129.568
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 8 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3 1/2); Over

Game 157-158: Houston at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 133.817; Jacksonville 125.117
Dunkel Line: Houston by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Houston by 5; 42
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-5); Under

Game 159-160: NY Giants at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 124.662; Tennessee 121.922
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Pick; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants; Over

Game 161-162: Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 121.628; New Orleans 134.076
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 12 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9 1/2); Over

Game 163-164: Tampa Bay at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 125.726; Detroit 132.723
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 7; 38
Vegas Line: Detroit by 10; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+10); Under

Game 165-166: St. Louis at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 134.277; Washington 125.411
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 10; 49
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2 1/2); Over

Game 167-168: NY Jets at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 127.269; Minnesota 125.363
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 2; 36
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+6); Under

Game 169-170: Buffalo at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.676; Denver 140.821
Dunkel Line: Denver by 13; 52
Vegas Line: Denver by 10; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-10); Over

Game 171-172: Kansas City at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 136.040; Arizona 134.651
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Arizona by 1; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+1); Under

Game 173-174: San Francisco at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 130.567; Oakland 126.095
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 9; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+9); Under

Game 175-176: Seattle at Philadelphia (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 139.074; Philadelphia 142.688
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-1); Over

Game 177-178: New England at San Diego (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 145.740; San Diego 135.527
Dunkel Line: New England by 10; 54
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Over


MONDAY, DECEMBER 8

Game 179-180: Atlanta at Green Bay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 133.124; Green Bay 143.086
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10; 52
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13; 56
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+13); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Cowboys (8-4) @ Bears (5-7)—Both teams played on Thursday last week, so normal prep here; Chicago won last three series games, by 7-16-17 points. Dallas opponents were 19 of 31 on 3rd down last two games, ran 21/16 more plays than Pokes in scoring 61 points. Eagles ran for 256 yards against them last week, expect to see lot of Forte here. Bears won last two home games, both 21-13 games, after losing first three; since ’11, they’re 1-3 as home underdogs. Last five Chicago TD drives were all less than 60 yards; they were outgained by 163/105 yards in last two games. Dallas is 2-0 on grass, winning by 14-16. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 9-7. NFC North underdogs are 6-9. Last four Dallas road games went over total; four of five Chicago home games stayed under.




NFL

Thursday, December 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview: Cowboys at Bears
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (+3.5, 51)

Suddenly in a fight for their playoff lives, the Dallas Cowboys visit the Chicago Bears for a crucial NFC contest on Thursday night. After falling to division rival Philadelphia on Thanksgiving Day, Dallas is just 2-3 over its last five games and locked in a three-team tie for a wild-card berth as the season heads down the stretch. The Cowboys are, surprisingly, 5-0 on the road this season.

A mess on the defensive side of the ball, the Bears are clearly playing out the string with questions aplenty. Chicago had its modest two-game winning streak snapped at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day after blowing a 14-3 first-quarter lead and yielding 474 yards. The Bears rank 26th in total defense and 30th in scoring defense, allowing 28.1 point,s and once again quarterback Jay Cutler's future with the team seems uncertain.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Bears as 3.5-point home dogs. The total opened at 50.5 and moved up a half-point.

INJURY REPORT: Cowboys - DE George Selvie (Questionable, thigh), S Jeff Heath (Out, thumb). Bears - DT Jeremiah Ratliff (Questionable, knee), WR Alshon Jeffery (Probable, hamstring), TE Martellus Bennett (Probable, foot), S Chris Conte (Questionable, eye), K Robbie Gould (Doubtful, groin).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing toward the north endzone at around 10 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (+0.25) - Bears (+2.25) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -1.0

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS, 8-4 O/U): In a matchup that seemed to favor the offenses, Tony Romo posted a 53.7 quarterback rating - his lowest since 2011 - in a dreadful 33-10 loss to the Eagles. At 6-1 the Cowboys seemed to be a Super Bowl contender but since then their lone wins have come against lightweights Jacksonville and the New York Giants. With 1,427 yards, DeMarco Murray still has a wide lead in the NFL rushing ranks but Romo threw two picks and no touchdowns last time out, breaking a streak of 38 straight games with a scoring pass.

ABOUT THE BEARS (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Chicago has once again thrust its offense on the shoulders of Cutler with sub-par results, as the veteran has thrown 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions on the season. Already in shambles, the Bears' defense took another hit when it put steady linebacker Lance Briggs on season-ending injured reserve Friday. With Josh McCown under center, Chicago blasted Dallas last season 45-28, racking up 490 total yards and never punting in the contest.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last four road games.
* Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 60 percent of bettors are on the Cowboys.

 

[CNOTES]

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL line moves

Thanksgiving is long gone and all that’s left is a dried up turkey wing, congealed cranberry sauce and some grey potatoes. And of course, the home stretch of the NFL season.

December is here and teams are fighting for playoff positioning in Week 14. We talk with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the action coming in on this week’s NFL offerings and where those lines will end up come kickoff.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears – Open: +3.5, Move: +4

If your book hasn’t gone to Dallas -4 for the Thursday night, they probably will soon. Cowboys money is coming in strong on the road team, despite Dallas getting exposed by the Eagles on Thanksgiving Day. According to MGM, ticket count is heavy on Dallas a 4/1 pace.

“We’ve taken quite a bit of money on Dallas and will likely be pushing it up to -4 very soon,” says Stoneback. “We’re heavy on Dallas sides and also there are a lot parlays. And we’re on the verge of going to 51.5 or 52 on the total. Looks like we’ll need the underdog and the Under.”


Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns – Open: +3.5, Move: +4

Some books are dealing a full four points on this line following the announcement that Cleveland will stick with QB Brian Hoyer and not start rookie QB Johnny Manziel. “Johnny Football” has been a draw for football bettors, sparking a massive wave of futures action on the Browns when drafted. But even if Manziel was to get the nod against the Colts, Stoneback doesn’t think the public would jump on board the Browns.

“Being that they’re winning and they are where they’re at with Hoyer, I don’t think people would have bet them any different (if Manziel played),” says Stoneback. “If it was like the third game of the season and they were playing poorly, I could see it having an impact. But the hype has worn down.”


Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +4, Move: +5.5

Books have gone as high as Houston -5.5 with this AFC South battle, despite the Jaguars coming off a win over the Giants last Sunday – just their second victory of the season and sixth in the last two years. Jacksonville is just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games off a victory.

“There’s no excitement for Jacksonville,” says Stoneback. “In fact, we haven’t written one single ticket on the Jaguars at any of our books as of Wednesday morning. Not a single bet at 12 different properties. There is someone out there with them tied in a parlay though. One guy.”


Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5

This line opened at pick at some books while MGM posted Arizona -1 and have stayed there despite a growing amount of money on the Cardinals. Stoneback says they actually have more tickets written on the Chiefs but more money riding on the home side.

“It’s a bunch of smaller wagers on the Chiefs,” he says. “This is one of those games where the public and sharps are going to be split. Kansas City is pretty popular with the public. There’s a lot of parlay money on them for a Wednesday.”


Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5

Some offshore markets are offering Seattle +1.5 with the early action hitting the Eagles hard. Stoneback, who is dealing Philadelphia -1, expects that money to even out by gametime. As of Wednesday, there is one more ticket on the Eagles than the Seahawks at MGM’s Las Vegas properties. The total in this offense-versus-defense showdown is a tough number to set and has dropped from the opener of 49 points.

“We’re currently at 49 but there are some places out there with a 48,” says Stoneback. “The majority of the early money is on the Under 49.”


Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos – Open: -10, Move: -9.5

A limit play on the Bills moved this spread off the key number of Denver -10 early in the week. As of Wednesday, that’s the only significant action on this game. However, Stoneback says the money will come in on Denver – as it does every week.

“It’ll be the same scenario as it always is: Sharps on Bills and the public on the Broncos,” he says. “The real danger you get into is when the public and sharps are both on Denver.”

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 14


December 5, 2014


LAS VEGAS – Week 14 of the NFL season features a few good matchups but also some stinkers, leaving bettors to take a wait-and-see approach on many of them, likely waiting until game day to make most of their moves. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said there has not been much early NFL betting action at his property yet, although he expects that will change as the games draw closer.


“There are some really awful games on the slate this week,” Avello said. “There’s Houston-Jacksonville, Giants-Tennessee, Jets-Minnesota, there’s just some real raggedy games this week. I don’t think your general public-type of guy bets those games. Of course sharp guys are always looking for the best number they can possibly get. Except for your basic wiseguy type of moves, there’s nothing there this week right now.”


One of the few big games in Week 14 involves two teams fighting for the playoffs as the Arizona Cardinals (9-3) host the Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) at University of Phoenix Stadium. Both teams have lost two in a row, and this game opened as a Pick’em at The Wynn before seeing the Chiefs go to -1.


“First of all, Arizona’s struggling offensively – a lot of injuries,” Avello said. “I think (Larry) Fitzgerald’s back this week, that helps a little bit. Kansas City’s also in need of a win after losing a couple straight. Arizona sure could use a win here also, so it’s a tough call here.”

The St. Louis Rams (5-7) have also been an early mover, going from an opener of -2.5 at The Wynn to -3 as they visit the struggling Washington Redskins (3-9), who are riding a four-game losing streak. The Rams are favored on the road for the first time in almost four years and have gone 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in their past five games under that scenario.


“The Rams are getting some love this week,” Avello said. “I get it, I know the Rams are playing a lot better football than a lot of the contenders are playing. The problem with the Rams is that they could run the table, and I don’t think it would to do them any good. Washington, that team’s an absolute mess. Players are just keying on a team that’s playing pretty good.”


In addition, the week’s two remaining prime-time games offer bettors solid opportunities to either back two of the best teams in the NFL or fade them following their exciting showdown last week at Lambeau Field. The New England Patriots (9-3) lost to the Green Bay Packers (9-3) in that game 26-21 as 3-point underdogs, and both teams are favored in Week 14.


The Patriots visit the San Diego Chargers (8-4) as 3.5-point road favorites on Sunday Night Football while the Packers host the Atlanta Falcons (5-7) as 12-point home chalk on Monday Night Football. The Chargers and Falcons are both coming off wins last week.


“If you get a Charger quarterback that can give you a consistent game, I’d give them a shot,” Avello said of San Diego’s Philip Rivers. “Last week he took the team down the field and ended up winning the football game. He does that sometimes, and you wonder why he can’t do that all the time. Yes, there’s different situations, I get all that. But Peyton Manning does it, (Tom) Brady does it, Aaron Rodgers does it (Drew) Brees does it. This guy’s supposed to be in that category, but he just loses something, and I don’t know what that it is. I just don’t know.


“You’re getting the Patriots, and the Patriots lost last week. Not that they can’t lose two in a row, because in pro football you certainly can. They played good enough to win that game last week. They certainly played good enough to cover. The guy missed a field goal.”


New England has not lost two straight games in the regular season since 2012. Meanwhile, Atlanta is a double-digit dog for just the third time since 2002 and has gone 4-0 ATS in its last four games in that situation. For that reason, Avello thinks the Falcons have a shot to cover the number against the Packers, who have gone 5-0 vs. the line in their past five at home.


“I personally think so, but I’m not sure they’re going to be bet,” Avello said. “Atlanta also is in the hunt for a playoff spot, they seem to be playing better football lately. I guess what you saw last week was Green Bay beat one of the best teams in football. So if they beat them, they should handle Atlanta easily. That’s what the public sees.”


LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK - WEEK 14 BETTING MOVES


Rotation Team Open Current Move


151 RAVENS - - -
152 DOLPHINS 3 2.5 -0.5


153 STEELERS - - -
154 BENGALS 4 3 -1


155 COLTS 3.5 3.5 0
156 BROWNS - - -


157 TEXANS 3.5 6 2.5
158 JAGUARS - - -


159 GIANTS 0 1 1
160 TITANS - - -


161 PANTHERS - - -
162 SAINTS 9 10 1


163 BUCCANEERS - - -
164 LIONS 9.5 10 0.5


165 RAMS 1.5 3 1.5
166 REDSKINS - - -


167 JETS - - -
168 VIKINGS 5.5 6 0.5


169 BILLS - - -
170 BRONCOS 10 9.5 -0.5


171 CHIEFS 0 1 1
172 CARDINALS - - -


173 49ERS 7.5 8 0.5
174 RAIDERS - - -


175 SEAHAWKS - - -
176 EAGLES 1 1 0


177 PATRIOTS 3 3.5 0.5
178 CHARGERS - - -


179 FALCONS - - -
180 PACKERS 11 12.5 1.5


Per Bettingmoves, Dec. 5 - 7:10 p.m. ET

 

[CNOTES]

Sharp Moves - Week 14


December 5, 2014




We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 14!


All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Friday morning.


(Rotation #156) Cleveland +3.5 – Maybe the biggest upset of the week to date is the fact that the Browns are going to be using QB Brian Hoyer instead of QB Johnny Manziel under center in this game against the Colts. There is plenty of motivation here for a couple Indy players to succeed, as both KR/PR Josh Cribbs and RB Trent Richardson were jettisoned from the Browns last season. Both have already said if they score a touchdown, they're jumping into the Dawg Pound. Head Coach Mike Pettine is right about one thing for our money: Hoyer gives the team the better chance of winning this game. What else gives the Browns the edge? Their corners are going to be able to match up with WR TY Hilton and the gang just like the New England Patriots did. It could be a frustrating day for QB Andrew Luck and the Colts' offense.


Opening Line: Cleveland +3.5
Current Line: Cleveland +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 75% on Indianapolis


(Rotation #169) Buffalo +9.5 – For our money, the Broncos really haven't been all that impressive over the course of the last few weeks. The common thread with all of the teams which have challenged the Denver offense this year is a strong defensive line. Buffalo might not have DT Marcell Dareus in this one, but the rest of that front four is fantastic as well. In fact, this might be the best defensive line in the league. QB Peyton Manning isn't going to get himself sacked a ton, but we know that he isn't the same quarterback when he doesn't have the time to scan the field and make proper decisions. The Bills aren't great offensively, but if they can get into the 20s in this game, their defense should do enough to at least make it so a cover is reachable.


Opening Line: Buffalo +10
Current Line: Buffalo +9.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Denver


(Rotation #178) San Diego +3.5 – QB Tom Brady and the gang could never lose back-to-back games, right? That's the thought of the common bettor at this point, but it is providing a great opportunity on the super sharp Super Chargers for the second straight week. San Diego has already proven that it can beat some of the best teams in the league, and last week's win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens might have been the moment that it all came together. The Chargers have the ability to win this game SU, and quite frankly, we're a bit surprised to see New England favored by more than a field goal in a week when it flew straight from Green Bay to San Diego without going back to Massachusetts at all.


Opening Line: San Diego +3.5
Current Line: San Diego +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on New England

 

[CNOTES]

Week 14 Tip Sheet


December 6, 2014


Ravens at Dolphins (-3, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Week 13 Recap:
-- Baltimore (7-5) suffered a brutal blow in the tight AFC Wild Card race with a last-minute 34-33 home loss to San Diego as 6 ½-point favorites. The Ravens led by 10 points with six minutes remaining before a late Chargers’ rally, snapping a four-game home winning streak. Baltimore allowed at least 28 points for just the second time this season, but it has put up 67 points combined in the past two weeks.
-- The Dolphins (7-5) dodged a major bullet by staving off the rival Jets on Monday night, 16-13. Miami failed to cover as 6 ½-point favorites, while allowing New York to rush for 277 yards on 49 carries. The Dolphins yielded 14 points or less on the road for the fourth time this season, while improving to 3-1 inside the AFC East.


Previous meeting: Baltimore has won each of the past four matchups with Miami, including a 26-23 triumph at Sun Life Stadium last October as 2 ½-point underdogs. Justin Tucker booted four field goals for the Ravens, while knocking down the game-winner with under two minutes remaining in regulation. Miami’s running game is much improved from last season, but it’s important to note that the Dolphins rushed for just 22 yards on 11 carries.


What to watch for: The Baltimore defensive line takes a major hit with nose tackle Haloti Ngata suspended for the rest of the regular season after violating the enhanced substance policy. The Ravens are just 3-5 this season against AFC opponents, while posting a 1-2 SU/ATS record as a road underdog. The Dolphins have cashed the ‘under’ in six of the past seven games, while putting a 6-3 mark to the ‘under’ in the previous nine home contests since last season.


Steelers at Bengals (-3, 47) – 1:00 PM EST


Week 13 Recap:
-- Pittsburgh’s (7-5) struggles in early kickoffs this season continued in a 35-32 home loss to a New Orleans team that entered Heinz Field on a three-game skid. The Steelers dropped to 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in 1:00 kicks, while allowing a season-high in points and five touchdown passes to Drew Brees. Pittsburgh received another big passing game at home from Ben Roethlisberger, who threw for 435 yards, but Big Ben has tossed five interceptions in the past three games following a seven-game stretch with just one pick.
-- Cincinnati (9-3-1) pulled off a three-game road sweep of New Orleans, Houston, and Tampa Bay to keep the rest of the AFC North at arms’ length. The Bengals escaped Raymond James Stadium with a 14-13 victory as six-point favorites, as Andy Dalton rushed for a touchdown and threw for another score to A.J. Green. The defense stepped up during this winning streak, allowing a total of 36 points and going ‘under’ the total in each victory.


Previous meeting: These rivals are hooking up for the first time this season, as the home squad won each game in 2013. Cincinnati took care of Pittsburgh last September, 20-10 as seven-point favorites, but the Steelers jumped out of the gate to a 21-0 advantage after one quarter in a 30-20 triumph at Heinz Field last December as 2 ½-point underdogs. Since 2010, the Steelers have won six of the previous eight meetings against the Bengals.


What to watch for: Pittsburgh has played plenty of high-scoring games of late, hitting the ‘over’ in five of the past six contests. In spite of Cincinnati’s defensive prowess recently on the road, the Bengals have cashed the ‘over’ in three of the previous four games at Paul Brown Stadium. Since 2012, the Bengals are 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS at home against division opponents, as the Steelers last won in Cincinnati in Week 7 of the 2012 campaign.


Colts (-3 ½, 50) at Browns – 1:00 PM EST


Week 13 Recap:
-- Indianapolis (8-4) continues to clean up against subpar competition, as the Colts routed the Redskins as 7 ½-point favorites, 49-27. The Colts topped the 40-point mark for the fourth time this season, as Andrew Luck sliced up the Washington secondary for five touchdowns and 370 yards. Indianapolis improved to 5-2 at Lucas Oil Stadium, as three of its final four games are on the road.
-- The Browns (7-5) were tripped up at Buffalo, 26-10 in an important game for tie-breaker purposes in the AFC Wild Card race. Brian Hoyer was lifted in the second half in favor of rookie Johnny Manziel, as Hoyer has been intercepted five times and failed to throw a touchdown pass in the previous two games.


Previous meeting: Luck ran for a pair of scores in a 17-13 home victory over the Browns in his rookie season of 2012. Trent Richardson was limited to eight yards on eight carries against his future team, while the Colts held the ball for over 35 minutes. The Colts are making their first trip to Cleveland since 2008, when Indianapolis escaped with a 10-6 victory.


What to watch for: Indianapolis has covered four of five games on the highway, while posting an incredible 8-1 SU/ATS record as a road favorite since 2012. Hoyer will get the start on Sunday after getting pulled at Buffalo. The Browns haven’t been listed as a home underdog since Week 3 against the Ravens, as Cleveland has put together a 4-1-1 ATS mark in the ‘dog role this season.


Bills at Broncos (-10, 47 ½) – 4:05 PM EST


Week 13 Recap:
-- Buffalo (7-5) just won’t go away in the AFC Wild Card chase off consecutive wins over the Jets and Browns. The Bills trailed Cleveland, 3-0 at halftime, but exploded for 26 second half points to run out the Browns, 26-10 as three-point home favorites. Buffalo wasn’t sharp offensively by racking up less than 300 yards, but Dan Carpenter kicked four field goals and the defense forced three turnovers to overcome a pair of interceptions thrown by Kyle Orton.
-- The Broncos (9-3) put together their most complete effort of the season in a 29-16 rout of the Chiefs. Denver’s defense limited Kansas City to 151 yards and 11 first downs, while C.J. Anderson controlled the run game for 168 yards as the Broncos held the ball for nearly 39 minutes.


Previous meeting: The Bills blew away the Broncos in December 2011 in a 40-14 victory as 2 ½-point home underdogs. This was one of the few down spots for Denver during its Tim Tebow run, as Buffalo intercepted the Heisman Trophy winner three times, while the Bills scored three non-offensive touchdowns. Buffalo surprised Denver in its previous trip to Sports Authority Field in 2008 with a 30-23 win as six-point underdogs.


What to watch for: Buffalo has cashed the ‘under’ in four straight games, while going ‘under’ in four of five road contests. The Broncos own a solid 7-2 ATS record in their past nine opportunities as a favorite of nine points or more.


Chiefs (-1, 40) at Cardinals – 4:05 PM EST


Week 13 Recap:
-- Kansas City (7-5) looks to pair of tough divisional losses behind them, as the Chiefs were ambushed early in last Sunday’s 29-16 home defeat to the Broncos. Any chance Kansas City had at an AFC West title pretty much went out the window as the running game was limited to 41 yards, while allowing four Denver field goals of 33 yards or less.
-- Arizona (9-3) heads home following consecutive road losses at Seattle and Atlanta, scoring just 21 points combined in those two defeats. The Cardinals allowed their second-most points this season in a 29-18 defeat to the Falcons as 1 ½-point favorites, while rushing for just 35 yards on 11 carries. Arizona has failed to cover in back-to-back games for the first time this season.


Previous meeting: The Chiefs destroyed the Cardinals at Arrowhead Stadium in 2010 as nine-point favorites, 31-13. Jamaal Charles picked up 88 yards rushing, while Dwayne Bowe pulled in a pair of touchdown receptions as Kansas City has won three straight over Arizona dating back to 2002.


What to watch for: The injury bug continues to hit Arizona, as running back Andre Ellington is out with a hip injury. The Cardinals should be happy to be home, winning all six games at University of Phoenix Stadium, while posting a 4-1 SU/ATS record as a home underdog since the start of last season. Kansas City has won two of three games against NFC opponents, while putting together a 6-1 SU/ATS record since the start of last season in interconference action.


Seahawks at Eagles (-1 ½, 48) – 4:25 PM EST


Week 13 Recap:
-- Seattle (8-4) is turning on the jets at the right time, winning its fifth game in six tries since a two-game skid in October. The Seahawks took care of the 49ers in their first meeting since last season’s NFC Championship, grabbing a 19-3 victory at San Francisco on Thanksgiving night. Seattle forced three turnovers, while kicking four field goals and picking up a cover as an underdog in its first try this season.
-- The Eagles (9-3) picked up their fourth victory in the past five contests, dominating the rival Cowboys on Thanksgiving, 33-10 as three-point road underdogs. Philadelphia ran all over the Dallas defense for 256 yards with 159 of those coming from LeSean McCoy. The Eagles are in cruise control inside the division with a 3-0 record, but finish the season with the final three games against NFC East foes.


Previous meeting: The Seahawks routed the dysfunctional Eagles towards the end of the 2011 season at CenturyLink Field on a Thursday night, 31-3 as three-point underdogs. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 148 yards and two touchdowns, while the Seattle defense intercepted Vince Young (yes, he started that game) four times.


What to watch for: Seattle has won five straight games in the Eastern Time Zone since 2013, including victories this season at Carolina and Washington. The Eagles started last season losing their first four games at Lincoln Financial Field, but Philadelphia has 10 consecutive regular season contests at home.