NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 1
Thursday
Lions (0-0) @ Chiefs (0-0)
— Last two years, Detroit is 10-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 12-21-1 SU, 23-10-1 ATS.
— Detroit is 5-16-1 SU in last 22 road openers.
— Last seven years, Lions are 4-3 ATS in road openers
— Last five years, Detroit is 12-10 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Goff is 56-48-1 as an NFL starter, 12-18-1 with the Lions.
— Over 7-1 in their last eight road openers
— Last time Goff played vs Chiefs, his Rams won 54-51 Monday night tilt.
— Last 20 years, Super Bowl champ is 11-6-3 ATS in Week 1 the following year.
— Last three years, KC is 10-13 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last seven years, Chiefs scored 33+ points in all their Week 1 games.
— Kansas City is 7-0 SU/4-3 ATS in last seven home openers.
— Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in last 11 games vs NFC opponents.
— Mahomes is 75-19 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 5-1-2 in their last eight home openers.
— Last three years, under is 15-9-1 in KC home games.
— Chiefs lead series, 9-5.
— This is Lions’ first visit to Arrowhead since 2003.
— Last time Lions beat KC was 2011, 48-3 in the Motor City.
Sunday
Texans (0-0) @ Ravens (0-0)
— Texans have their fourth head coach the last four years.
— Last 3 years, Texans are 10-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— However, they’re 4-9-1 ATS as a road dog outside AFC South, 6-2 in division.
— Houston covered five of last six road openers.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
— Mills is 5-19-1 as an NFL starter.
— Last two years, under is 11-6 in Houston road games.
— Since 2013, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 13-7-1 ATS as Week 1 underdogs.
— Last seven years, Ravens are 6-1 ATS in Week 1
— Last two years, Baltimore is 3-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— 5-2 ATS last seven home openers
— Last three years, scored 38-36-38 points in home openers
— Lamar Jackson is 46-19 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Last two years, Ravens are 18-16 SU, with a minus-8 turnover ratio.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home games.
— Ravens are 10-2 against Houston.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Texans are 0-6 in Baltimore, losing last visit 41-7 in 2019.
Bengals (0-0) @ Browns (0-0)
— QB Burrow hurt his calf in preseason; check status.
— Cincinnati lost its last four road openers.
— Bengals went to OT in Week 1 the last two years (1-1)
— Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Last 2 years, Bengals were 22-11 SU, 22-9-2 ATS.
— Last 2 years, Cincy is 8-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last 2 years, Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS in AFC North road games.
— Under is 10-5-2 in their last 17 road games.
— Browns have had one winning season (2020) since 2007.
— Browns are 3-1-1 ATS in last five games as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Cleveland scored 35-31-30 points in their home opener.
— Last year was first time since 2004 that Browns won in Week 1.
— Last nine years, Cleveland is 9-17-1 ATS in AFC North home tilts (3-0 LY)
— Over is 7-2 in Browns’ last seven home openers.
— Watson is 32-30 as an NFL starter, was 3-3 for Cleveland LY.
— Browns won five of last six games against Cincinnati.
— Bengals lost their last five visits to Cleveland.
Buccaneers (0-0) @ Vikings (0-0)
— Despite being 8-9, Tampa Bay won the NFC South last year.
— Since 2017, Bucs are 6-13-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bucs are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games on artificial turf.
— Mayfield is 32-39 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Buccaneers were 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games LY.
— Bucs are 5-3 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Last two years, under is 11-5 in Tampa Bay road games.
— Bucs’ new OC Dave Canales spent last 12 years in Seattle.
— Minnesota made playoffs LY, for first time since 2019.
— Vikings won/covered 7 of their last 8 home openers.
— Vikings were 11-0 SU LY in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Last three years, Minnesota is 7-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2014, Vikings are 23-11-1 as a non-divisional home favorite.
— Last three years, over is 18-7 in Minnesota home games.
— Cousins is 73-66-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Vikings’ new defensive coordinator is former Dolphins’ HC Brian Flores.
— Tampa Bay won seven of last nine series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Bucs lost last visit to Minnesota, 34-17 in 2017.
Titans (0-0) @ Saints (0-0)
— Titans were 7-10 LY, their first losing season since 2015.
— Tennessee lost its last seven games (1-5-1 ATS) last year.
— Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road openers.
— Last 3 years, Tennessee is 9-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Tannehill is 80-68 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Since 2015, Titans are 19-14-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Last two years, Titans are 7-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— New Orleans was 7-10 LY, their first losing season since 2016.
— Saints are 2-6 SU/1-7 ATS in last eight home openers.
— New Orleans won last four years in Week 1, scoring 29.8 ppg.
— Since 2018, Saints are 13-15 ATS as a home favorite
— Since 2018, NO is 18-11-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last two years, under is 10-7 in Saints’ home games.
— LY, New Orleans was minus-11 in turnovers (+31 from 2019-21)
— Tennessee leads series, 9-6-1
— Road team won four of last five meetings.
— Titans won their last three visits to Bourbon Street.
Panthers (0-0) @ Falcons (0-0)
— New coach, rookie QB usually suggests a losing season.
— Panthers have had five straight losing seasons.
— Reich was 41-35-1 coaching the Colts (1-2 in playoffs)
— Carolina went 8-3 ATS in last 11 games LY, after they fired the coach.
— Last two years, Panthers were 6-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Carolina is 5-4 ATS in last nine road openers.
— You’re reading armadillosports com
— Last four years, Panthers are 7-5 ATS in NFC South road games.
— Last 3 years, dogs were 19-2 ATS in Carolina games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Falcons have also had five straight losing seasons.
— Atlanta is 14-20 SU in two years under Arthur Smith.
— Seven of their last 10 games LY were decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Atlanta is 2-8-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Since 2004, Atlanta is 15-4 ATS in home openers.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 7-4-2 ATS in games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Ridder was 2-2 as a starter last year, his rookie season.
— Under is 7-1 in their last eight games.
— Teams split their season series (3-3) the last three years.
— Panthers won two of last three visits to Atlanta.
Jaguars (0-0) @ Colts (0-0)
— Jaguars made playoffs LY for 1st time since 2017, 2nd time since ’07.
— Jags were first team EVER to win playoff game with a minus-5 TO ratio.
— Jacksonville was +6 in turnovers LY; they were minus-20 in 2021.
— Last five years, Jaguars are 5-8-2 ATS in AFC South road games.
— Since 2018, Jaguars are 6-12-2 ATS on artificial turf.
— Lawrence is 12-22 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Over last decade, Jaguars are 6-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Pederson is 56-48-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— This will be 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Colts lost 10 of their last 12 games SU last year.
— Colts are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Indy is 2-6-1 ATS in AFC South home games.
— No idea which QB starts; Minshew has a 8-16 record as a starter.
— If rookie QB Richardson starts, rookie QB/new coach isn’t great.
— Last three years, under is 14-10 in Colts’ home games.
— Colts were minus-13 in turnovers LY (+14/+10 previous two years)
— Home side won last 11 series games.
— Jaguars lost their last five visits to Indy (1-2-2 ATS, all as underdogs)
49ers (0-0) @ Steelers (0-0)
— San Francisco won 12 of its last 13 games (10-3 ATS) LY.
— 49ers were +14 in turnovers last year (minus-15 in 2020-21)
— Last two years, SF were 23-11 in regular season, 4-2 in playoffs.
— Since 2016, 49ers are 11-12 ATS as a road favorite.
— SF is 3-4 SU/ATS in its last seven road openers.
— 49ers are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— 49ers are 15-10 ATS in last 25 games vs AFC opponents.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 7-1 as NFL starter.
— Steelers went 9-8/9-7-1 the last two seasons.
— Pittsburgh won/covered six of its last seven games LY.
— Since 2018, Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Pitt is 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Since 2015, Steelers are 20-15 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Steelers are 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five home openers.
— 2nd-year QB Pickett is 7-5 as an NFL starter.
— Home team won last five series games.
— 49ers lost last two visits here; their last win in Pittsburgh was in 1996.
Cardinals (0-0) @ Commanders (0-0)
— New GM, new coach, different QB for Arizona in Week 1.
— Cardinals lost seven in row, 11 of their last 13 games SU (4-6 ATS in last 10).
— Kyler Murray is still recovering from a knee injury; Colt McCoy is starter.
— 37-year old McCoy is 11-25 as an NFL starter (4-4 since 2020)
— Last five years, Cardinals are 20-9-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Arizona was 1-13 SU last year when it scored less than 29 points.
— Cardinals won their last three road openers, covered last four.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.
— 2022 5th-round pick QB Howell gets his 2nd NFL start here.
— Howell won his first NFL start 26-6 against the Cowboys.
— LY, Washington was 5-1 when it scored 23+ points, 3-7-1 if they didn’t.
— Last five years, Commanders are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under was 10-3 in Washington’s last 13 games last year.
— Under is 17-6 in Commanders’ last 23 home games.
— Washington is 3-8 SU/ATS in last eleven home openers.
— Washington won 10 of last 13 series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Cardinals lost last eight visits here; their last win in Washington was in 1998.
Raiders (0-0) @ Broncos (0-0)
— Last three years, Raiders are -7/-9/-11 in turnovers.
— Raiders blew five double digit leads in 2nd half last year.
— Garoppolo is 40-17 as an NFL starting QB.
— Garoppolo worked with coach McDaniels in New England.
— Last four years, Raiders are 14-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Las Vegas is 6-4 ATS as an AFC West road dog.
— Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road openers.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 road games.
— Raiders were 3-8 SU LY in games decided by 5 or less points, or in OT.
— Sean Payton (152-89 as NFL HC) makes his Denver debut here.
— Denver lost 11 of its last 14 games last year.
— Last 8 years with the Saints, Payton was 20-29-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2017, Broncos are 7-15-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last three years, Denver is 5-3-1 ATS in AFC West home games.
— Denver is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 home openers.
— Last two years, under was 10-6 in Broncos’ home games.
— Russell Wilson is 117-71-1 as an NFL starter.
— Las Vegas won last six series games.
— Raiders won last three visits to Denver (won 22-16 in OT LY)
Dolphins (0-0) @ Chargers (0-0)
— Last 3 years, Miami was 10-6/9-8/9-8……0-1 in playoffs.
— Miami was 9-8 LY despite a minus-8 turnover ratio.
— Last four years, Dolphins are 13-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— Over was 7-2 in Miami road games last season.
— Last four years, Dolphins are 12-7 ATS on artificial turf.
— Last 2 years, Miami is 4-6 in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Tagovailoa is 21-13 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers made playoffs LY, lost 31-30, blowing 27-0 lead in Jacksonville.
— Kellen Moore comes in from Dallas to be new OC.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 6-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Bolts are 6-12-7 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Herbert is 25-25 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers started the last four seasons 1-0 SU.
— Chargers are 2-4 ATS in last six home openers.
— Bolts’ last three home openers stayed under the total.
— Teams split their last six meetings.
— Dolphins won last three visits to San Diego/LA.
Eagles (0-0) @ Patriots (0-0)
— Last 20 years, Super Bowl loser is 4-16 ATS in Week 1 the next year.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 25-13 SU.
— Last 3 years, Eagles are 4-10 ATS as a road favorite.
— Eagles are 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in last five road openers.
— Hurts is 25-13 as an NFL starter.
— Philly is 6-10 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Eagles lost both coordinators to HC jobs after last season.
— Since Brady left, NE is 25-25 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last three years, Patriots are 3-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— Mac Jones is 16-16 as an NFL starting QB.
— Patriots brought Bill O’Brien in to be Jones’ new QB guru.
— Patriots are 6-4 ATS last ten games vs NFC opponents.
— New England is 4-8 ATS in last dozen home openers.
— Last year was first time since 2002 NE was an underdog in its home opener.
— Under is 23-17-1 in New England’s last 41 home games.
— New England won five of last seven series games.
— Two of those games (1-1) were Super Bowls.
— Eagles are 2-3 in Foxboro; their last visit here was in 2015.
Rams (0-0) @ Seahawks (0-0)
— Last year was Rams’ first losing season since 2016.
— Rams were 1-5-1 ATS as a road dog LY (7-3-1 from ’17-’21)
— Big ?? For Rams; did they improve their offensive line?
— Stafford is 93-104-1 as an NFL starter, 19-11 with the Rams.
— Rams are 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 NFC West road games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS in season openers.
— Rams covered four of last five road openers.
— Since 2003, Seahawks are 18-2 SU/15-5 ATS in home openers.
— Last two years, Seattle is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last six years, Seahawks are 7-10-1 ATS in NFC West home games.
— Geno Smith is 22-29 as an NFL starter, 10-11 with Seattle.
— Under Carroll, Seattle is 41-35-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 9-3 in Seahawks’ last dozen home openers.
— Last three years, under is 15-10 in Seattle home games.
— Seattle was 16-19 last two years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— Rams are 8-4 in last 12 series games, but lost 27-23/19-16 LY.
— Rams won three of their last four visits to Seattle.
Packers (0-0) @ Bears (0-0)
— Jordan Love lost his only NFL start 13-7 at Kansas City in 2021.
— Last four years, Packers are 11-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— GB is 12-8-2 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Packers are 8-12 ATS in last 20 NFC North road games.
— Green Bay is 2-4 SU/ATS in last six road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last eight road openers.
— This is 5th year in a row that Green Bay opens on the road (2-2 L4)
— Green Bay had three losing seasons in the last six years.
— Bears were 9-25 SU/12-20-2 ATS the last two years.
— Fields is 5-20 SU as an NFL starter; prospect or suspect?
— Last four years, Chicago is 5-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Chicago is 1-8 ATS last nine NFC North home games.
— Bears are 13-9-2 in last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Chicago won four of its last five home openers.
— Bears’ last six home openers stayed under the total.
— Chicago was 3-14 LY; their turnover ratio was only minus-2.
— Green Bay won/covered last eight games in this rivalry.
— Packers are 17-2 SU in last 19 series games.
— Green Bay’s last loss here was in 2018.
Cowboys (0-0) @ Giants (0-0)
— McCarthy takes over as play-caller for departed OC Moore.
— Last two years, Dallas is 17-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys are 16-11-1 in last 28 games as a road favorite.
— Dallas is 6-6 SU/9-3 ATS in last dozen road openers.
— Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven road openers.
— QB Prescott is 63-40 as an NFL starter.
— Last six years, Dallas is 11-7 ATS in NFC East road games.
— Giants made playoffs LY for first time since 2016.
— Since 2018, Giants are 9-19 ATS as a home dog (2-1 LY)
— Last five years, Big Blue is 5-10 ATS in NFC East home games.
— Daniel Jones is 22-32-1 as an NFL starter.
— Last 11 years, Giants are 2-9 SU/1-10 ATS in last 11 home openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
— Giants were +1 in turnovers LY (minus-25 from 2019-21)
— Last four years, under is 23-9-1 in their home games.
— Dallas won four in row, 11 of last 12 series games.
— Cowboys won/covered five of last six visits to Giants Stadium.
— This is 7th time in last 12 years these teams met in Week 1.
Monday
Bills (0-0) @ Jets (0-0)
— Last four years, Bills are 37-18 in regular season, 4-4 in playoffs.
— Last four years, Buffalo is 13-9 ATS as road favorites.
— Last five years, Buffalo is 9-5-1 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Bills are 10-1 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Josh Allen is 56-28 as an NFL starter.
— Buffalo is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in last four road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven road openers.
— Bills are 7-3 ATS in last ten Week 1 games.
— Last 7 years, Jets are 34-80 SU; they have new QB now, guy named Rodgers.
— Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010.
— Rodgers is 158-85-1 as an NFL starter, 11-10 in playoff games.
— Last two years, Jets are 5-9 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last five years, Jets are 4-11 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Last three years, Jets are 3-8 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Jets are 4-8 SU in last 12 home openers, 7-3 ATS in last ten.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five home openers.
— Buffalo won five of last six series games.
— Bills won four of last five series games in New Jersey.
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