NBA: Win Totals Released
Basketballs are bouncing again. With Media Day in the books throughout the league, coaches will get to the task of developing chemistry and carving out roles before the regular season opens at month's end. Practices are far more important than games this time of year, especially given the logistics of the schedule, since the NBA takes advantage of exhibitions to branch out to other markets. Some people won't wager on the NFL preseason, but compared to the NBA version, the Snoopy Bowl may as well be the Super Bowl.
With that little warning not to touch that October 15 doubleheader featuring the Kings and Nets at Beijing's MasterCard Arena and the Raptors-Celtics in Cumberland County, Maine, we'll move on to what you should be looking at, win totals and futures.
The Westgate Superbook released projected win numbers and divisional odds on September 30, and while it's still too early to go full preview on you guys, there is some knowledge worth dropping that should help you capitalize, barring injury.
Phoenix, which is going to give teams fits given their pressure and how hard they play under Jeff hornacek, looks extremely attractive at 42.5. They'll wear out opponents on the second night of back-to-backs, which there are more of now that the NBA has opted for a week-long All-Star break. Back-to-backs is also a major motivating factor in calling for the under for the defending champion Spurs, which appear to come loaded with a venomous trap line at 56.5. The number looks low enough considering they won 62 last season and 58 the year before, but this is a franchise that rightfully takes the cautious approach in resting players and seems even more likely to do so this year, another year older and eyeing only a second straight title, knowing fresh legs are the only way they'll reach that goal.
While the Los Angeles Lakers won't be any good, they're being disrespected with a total set at 31.5. What's that really saying? Kobe Bryant, avoid losing 50 games. Heck, even 32-50 works, so don't lose 51.
With improved chemistry likely in the first year under Byron Scott, the Lakers are likely to pull a few upsets that would otherwise seem unlikely. Between Bryant, Steve Nash, Carlos Boozer and Jordan Hill, the Lakers have prideful veterans who can catch you napping. Last year's abomination won 27 times, so if Bryant stays healthy, they'll manage to at least lose "only" 50.
Houston and Dallas are each at 49.5, further tying together the Southwest Division rivals who haven't shied away from taking shots at one another this offseason. Since Memphis' projected win total is at 48.5, odds are that at least one of these three teams winds up falling well short of expectations. The Grizzlies "grit and grind" approach seems better-suited for the postseason, so the call here is to expect they'll wind up on the under side.
In the Eastern Conference, Cleveland, placed at 58.5, is projected as the top team in the entire NBA. Considering they added pieces like Shawn Marion, Mike Miller and James Jones for cheap and could still wind up with Ray Allen, they've got a shot at exceeding expectations despite LeBron James originally trying to deflect pressure upon his departure from Miami. That as pre-Kevin Love, so don't sleep on the Cavaliers relishing taking everyone's best shot. The flip side is that the team is filled with guys who still have to learn how to win consistently for the first time, so there may be periods where the pressure comes to be too much.
The Charlotte Hornets being placed at 45.5 wins also qualifies as a potential trap line since the franchise has never won more than 44 games as the Bobcats, going 43-39 last season. The average bettor's natural inclination is to perceive that number as too high, but that would be overlooking the projected growth of Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist under talented second-year coach Steve Clifford with a difference-maker like Lance Stephenson coming on board.
The LeBron-less Heat are actually projected to finish behind the Hornets, with their win total set at 43.5. If Dwyane Wade can stay healthy, the Heat could blow that figure away on bravado alone, but that's clearly a major if with no room for error or a Wade maintenance program available this season. Paul George-less Indiana has been placed in Lakers territory at 32.5, and judging by the defeated attitude of the team at Media Day, I'd go under. It's going to be on David West to be a driving force as a leader and performer, and he can frankly only do so much.
NBA: Division Odds
Divisional odds set by the esteemed Jay Kornegay and his staff at Westgate also offer some interesting developments. Toronto is rightfully viewed as the Atlantic Division favorite (5-to-7) ahead of Brooklyn (5-to-2) and New York (7-to-2), and in my opinion, are a great bet. The Central Division is Cleveland's to win at 2-to-3, which is manageable only because the Bulls should be in the mix all season and have been placed at 6-to-5. Detroit and Indiana are each at 50-to-1 while Milwaukee pays 100-to-1. I shouldn't have to warn you not to flush money down the toilet chasing those longshots.
The Southeast sees the Wizards favored at 11-to-10, ahead of Charlotte (11-to-4), Miami (3-to-1) and Atlanta (8-to-1), so I'd stay away from making a move here since this will be hotly contested as the stubborn Heat lifers seek to stay on top.
For reasons stated above, I don't like backing San Antonio (5-to-8) even though it is the rightful favorite in the Southwest Division. Take your pick out of Dallas (5-to-1), Houston (5-to-1) and Memphis (7-to-1) if you're going to make a move.
Oklahoma City (1-to-4) is too heavy a favorite in the Northwest Division considering it's injury history, while Portland (3-to-1) is getting the right amount of respect as a potential winner that it's not worthwhile to back them to pull it off. Denver (20-to-1), Utah (100-to-1) and Minnesota (100-to-1) aren't making the playoffs, much less knocking off OKC or Rip City.
The Pacific Division is the Clippers to lose again, so with improved organizational stability and and a year under their belt playing for Doc Rivers, 5-to-9 seems like friendly odds worth pulling the trigger on. Golden State at 9-to-5 doesn't seem friendly at all, especially given the need for a grace period as Steve Kerr gets acclimated to coaching. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson were great at the FIBA World Cup this summer, but participating could lead to heavier legs and lower shooting percentages as the grind wears on them. The Suns are an appealing longshot at 10-to-1. The Lakers and Kings, both 50-to-1, are not.
Of all the division favorites, the Raptors and Clippers look like the best bets. The odds aren't outlandish and their advantages over their opposition are worthy of backing.
NBA: Sportsbook.ag Individual Props
A few of Sportsbook.ag's NBA futures also stand out. LeBron James is the MVP favorite at +160, a number I'd jump in on if you choose to ride the King since it should end up closer to even money as the season opener draws closer. Elevating Cleveland to heights it hasn't seen since he left offers a built-in advantage, since a team that was a massive disappointment and failed to make the playoffs is about to make a run at the NBA's best record. If you want to go with the surprise of Kevin Love putting up massive numbers that can't be ignored, he's a tremendous value pick at +4000. A Kevin Durant repeat can net +300, while Derrick Rose is at +1200, perhaps counting on a sentimental factor if he's returned to his previous form. Clippers teammates Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are available at +1500, which makes them both heavy favorites above Kobe Bryant, entering his 19th season at +6000. That's the same level that third-fiddle Kyrie Irving and formers Lakers teammate Dwight Howard. Interestingly, Sportsbook.ag favors James Harden over the Rockets center, placing him at +3000. It seems they're not placing much emphasis on the defensive factor, since the big man will merit bonus points making up for his tag-team partner's shortcomings on that end of the floor.
Coach of the Year odds at Sportsbook.ag list Gregg Popovich as the favorite (+275), but it's doubtful he wins a third in four years. No one is sprinkling dirt on his Spurs this season, which has been a prerequisite. Cleveland's David Blatt, at +500, is the far more attractive option considering he'll have to manage high expectations while acclimating himself as a first-time NBA coach. It remains to be seen if media will reward him if he's successful, not holding his massive talent against him like they did Erik Spoelstra, who failed to obtain individual hardware despite being deserving during James' Heat tenure. Spoelstra has an opportunity to distinguish himself if the Heat thrive without James, checking in as the best value bet at +3500. It's wild to see him listed behind rookie coaches Steve Kerr (+2000) and Derek Fisher (+2500), though both will be highly visible with the Warriors and Knicks. Lionel Hollins, back in the league with Brooklyn, could be appealing at +4000, especially since he appears to be inheriting a healthy, determined Brook Lopez. Chicago's Tom Thibodeau (+650) and his former boss, L.A. Clippers coach Doc Rivers (+800), check in third and fourth in terms of odds, respectively. The early choice here would be Blatt.
As was the case last season, there's no overwhelming favorite in the Rookie of Year race. Milwaukee's Jabari Parker (+325) landed in the best situation to put up numbers immediately, since the Bucks need a go-to scorer and he embraced going to a smaller market, loving the fact he slipped to No. 2 behind Andrew Wiggins (+450). The top pick also has the opportunity to play a massive role after being dealt to Minnesota in exchange for Love, while 2013 No. 2 pick New lens Noel (+600) is definitely the choice here based on his potential impact. Even though the 76ers won't win many games, I think Noel will impress enough to follow Michael Carter-Williams' act and net Philadelphia a second straight award. If you're out to buy a new boat or piece of real estate and covet a larger longshot, take a look at Atlanta's Adrian Payne (+5000). Not only is he more seasoned as a 23-year-old, Payne also will have an opportunity to carve put a role due to his versatility, potentially stealing some of Mike Scott's minutes and playing off Al Horford and Paul Millsap.
Sportsbook.ag also has a Winning State prop for this season's NBA champion, offering up the three Texas powers at +400, a great deal considering the Spurs are available for that on their own. The Rockets (+2500) and Mavericks (+3000) are excellent throw-ins. By comparison, California is at +800, getting you the Clippers (+1100), Warriors (+3000), Lakers (+10,000) and Kings (+30,000), an assortment of flavors that don't look as appealing as a package. Hopeful Knicks and Nets fans can have New York at +2500, while Florida is available at +4000. Clearly, there is little respect for a Heat revival or the Magic's rebuilding efforts. All other states, which gets you the Cavs (+300), Thunder (+600), Bulls (+850), Wizards (+4000),Trail Blazers (+4500) and Grizzlies (+6000), is the prohibitive favorite at -300, delivering the likely Eastern Conference NBA Finals representative unless Miami rises up, in addition to a few West contenders.
