Cnotes National Football League Week # 6 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 5
October 12, 2015




Overall Notes


Wager Favorites-Underdogs


Straight Up 9-4
Against the Spread 6-6-1


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7
Against the Spread 3-9-1


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6


The largest underdog to win straight up
Bears (+10, ML +350) at Chiefs, 18-17


The largest favorite to cover
Packers (-9) vs. Rams, 24-10 and Patriots (-9) at Cowboys, 30-6



Frequent Flyer Miles


-- Three teams from the Pacific Time Zone headed to the Eastern Time Zone in Week 5, and they ended up going 1-2 SU and 2-0-1 ATS. The Seahawks held a 24-7 lead, but allowed 17 points in the fourth quarter to the Bengals to change a road cover into a push at most shops. The 49ers nearly pulled the upset against the Giants, but were able to hang on for the cover, 30-27. The Cardinals were favored against the lowly Lions and the result was decided rather early in a 42-17 win. All three of the Pacific vs. Eastern Time Zone games had 'over' totals, too.
Working Overtime


-- Regulation wasn't enough to decide a winner in three games Sunday. The Browns-Ravens, Redskins-Falcons and Seahawks-Bengals saw the home team win two of the three OT games, with Cleveland as the lone exception in their 33-30 win. The road teams were 2-0-1 ATS in the OT games, and the 'over' cashed in two of the three games. The games going to OT had no effect on the total, however.




AFC vs. NFC


-- There were three intraconference battles in Week 5, with the NFC going 2-1 SU/ATS. The Buccaneers won and covered at home, 38-31, against the Jaguars, while the Bears stunned the Chiefs at Arrowhead, 18-17, as a 10-point underdog. The lone AFC team to win and cover was the Patriots, crushing the Cowboys 30-6 at Jerry World. Two of the three AFC vs. NFC battles saw the 'under' come in. Over the past two weeks the under is 5-2, 10-3 over the past three weeks and 12-6-1 (66%) overall this season.


Total Recall


-- The game with the lowest total, the Colts-Texans (40.5) from Thursday night, cashed rather handily. From Sunday's slate, the Jags-Bucs (41.5) had a low total, too, and the Buccaneers nearly took care of it themselves in the 38-31 win. The next lowest totals were the Browns-Ravens (43) and Bills-Titans (43), with those games splitting 1-1. After that it was the Seahawks-Bengals (44), and that also went over. In other words, the five lowest totals on the board had the 'over' go 4-1.


-- The highest total on the board, the Patriots-Cowboys (51), never even came close. The Patriots limited the Cowboys to just two field goals. The Saints-Eagles (49.5) ended up going over thanks to Philly's offensive outburst, while the 'Skins-Falcons never threatened the over, even with the game going to OT.


-- For the first time in a while the 'over' went 2-0 in the first two primetime games, hitting Thursday and Sunday night. So far this season the over is still just 6-9 (40%) through 15 games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Broncos LB DeMarcus Ware (back) suffered what the team is calling back spasms in the win against the Raiders.


-- Browns QB Josh McCown (ankle) made it through the entire OT win in Baltimore, but he banged up his ankle and will be re-evaluated Monday. CB Joe Haden (finger, ribs) was active and then left again.


-- The biggest injury of the weekend came in K.C., as Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles (knee) suffered what is believed to be a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his knee. That's terrible news for a Kansas City offense which has already been struggling.


-- Eagles WR Nelson Agholor (ankle) left the win against the Saints due to an ankle injury, although the injury is not believed to be serious.


-- Jaguars RB T.J. Yeldon (groin) left the loss in Tampa with a groin injury, but he said after the game that the injury is not serious.


-- Lions CB DeAndre Levy (hip) aggravated his hip injury and he remains a question mark going forward, making matters worse for the Detroit defense.


-- The Rams lost WR Kenny Britt (knee) and DE Chris Long (knee) to injuries in their loss in Green Bay.


-- Ravens RB Justin Forsett (ankle) left in the fourth quarter due to an ankle injury and he was unable to return.


-- Saints WR Marques Colston (shoulder) damaged a win in the loss in Philadelphia and the severity of his injury is not yet known.


Bad Beats


-- The Chiefs entered the fourth quarter with a 17-6 lead against the Bears, they lost Charles to injury in the second half, and it seemed to really affect their momentum on offense. They were outscored 15-0 in the second half, including 12-0 in the fourth quarter, turning a cover into a straight-up loss.


-- Side bettors for the Seahawks were feeling great with the road team up 24-7 as three-point underdogs. However, the Bengals outscored the Seahawks 20-0 in the final quarter and overtime, burning moneyline bettors in the process.


-- The Raiders were covering for the entire game until Broncos CB Chris Harris had a 74-yard interception return for touchdown at 6:53 of the fourth quarter to give Denver a road cover, 16-10. Oakland side bettors had to be beside themselves, as the Denver offense did nothing for the entire game.


-- The 49ers looked like they might help moneyline bettors to an unlikely win, but the Giants had late heroics to pull out a win with a touchdown strike at :21 left in regulation.


Looking Ahead


-- Three more teams go west to east in Week 6, with the Cardinals heading to Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers. Those 1pm ET games can be difficult on west-coast teams, and the Cards are doing it in back-to-back weeks. ... The Chargers traverse two time zones to take on the Packers in the Central Time Zone, while the Broncos also go from the Mountain Time Zone to Eastern Time Zone when they invade Cleveland.


-- The Bears make the quick hop over to face the Lions in Week 6. Chicago has lost four straight against Detroit, and they're just 2-8 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series.


-- The Giants are playing with a lot of confidence heading into their Monday Night matchup against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Giants are 3-11 SU and 3-10-1 ATS in their past 14 meetings with the Eagles, including one playoff matchup.


-- The unbeaten Panthers head to the Pacific Northwest to battle the Seahawks. Carolina has lost five straight meetings with the Seahawks dating back to Dec. 16, 2007, and the Panthers are just 1-4 ATS in those meetings.

 

[CNOTES]

Books avoid Week 5 disaster
October 12, 2015


A three-team parlay pays 6/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $600) in Las Vegas and during Sunday's NFL Week 5 action almost everyone in town had a winning three-team combination in the afternoon games with the favorites of Arizona, New England and Denver covering.

“You just have to win one of those late game and things would be okay. Just one,” said the Stratosphere's Hugh Citron.

All three of those favorites would cover the number and it set the books up with a huge risk figure heading into Sunday night's football game with the Giants as seven-point home favorites over the 49ers.

No one wanted the 49ers. Huge parlays were waiting to cash if the Giants beat down the traveling 49ers like everyone else had this season. Two San Francisco road games this season; average score: 12-45.

“We're looking at nearly a seven-figure loss on the day if the Giants cover with the OVER mixed in with the Rangers and OVER in pro baseball,” said MGM Resorts CP of race and sports Jay Rood as the late game was just getting started.


Following the Giants 30-27 win (no cover) and the Blue Jays 5-1 win in the ALDS, Rood and the rest of the sports book directors around town could take a deep breath of relief having just dodged a bullet. It still turned out to be a loss on the day, but it wasn't a complete disaster.

Things could have been much worse as the perfect storm was brewing with the public riding several popular teams.

Three squads -- Green Bay, Atlanta, Cincinnati – entered Week 5 with perfect 4-0 marks against the spread. Only the Packers would cover on the day among the three, but the timing of the late games and only three teams to choose from had everyone on the same parlay and books can't escape a 6/1 payout odds no matter how much wise guy money they might get on the other side.

The public had a no-brainer three-teamer in the afternoon. "Let's see. Three games kicking off after 1:00 p.m. PT, huh? Hmm, Arizona should kill the Lions. The Cowboys have no shot against the Patriots and Denver has beat the tar out of Oakland seven straight games. Yes, I'll have a three-team parlay for $20, please."

That type of betting sequence was happening all over Las Vegas from 12:30 to 1:05 pm on Sunday and for the third time in five weeks it was enough to beat the books. That's crazy stuff. The books don't lose in football consistently, but going 2-3 against the public is a pretty big deal in Las Vegas. The casino bean counters are now getting snarkier with their comments in weekly executive meetings.

I guess the comeback comment would be "at least I didn't lose $1 million."

Sunday's storm was brewing early and it took lots of help to get there, and just because a popular team didn't cover doesn't mean that they didn't hurt the book.

“Baltimore not covering was an early dagger because all the sharp money was on Cleveland,” said Rood.

“And then all the teasers and favorite money-line parlays were riding with Atlanta. We were still barely up for the day in the morning, but the three-teamer in the afternoon did us in.”

In the ultimate salute to Art Modell (guess which gesture), the Browns rolled into Baltimore (-6.5) and won 33-30 in overtime. The Falcons needed overtime to beat the Redskins, 25-19, but failed to cover the 7-point spread. The public was on both favorites, which helped the books with parlays and limited the exposure later in the day.

"The Bears winning cut off a lot of teasers and money-line," said Citron, "but Packers covering hurt us in the morning."

The Packers move to 5-0 ATS with its 24-10 win over the Rams while the Bears had a dramatic comeback for the second consecutive week in an 18-17 win at Kansas City.

Things could have been much worse for the books on Sunday, but all were bailed out with the 49ers playing its first inspired road game and getting the cover. Now it's back to the drawing board with the books trying to get back to .500 on the year against the public.

Keep at it bettors!

You got the books on the ropes. Don't let them off the hook.

 

[CNOTES]

Trends to Watch - October
October 12, 2015




With the MLB playoffs underway, and the NBA set to start at the end of the month, October is a great month for sports fans alike. But nothing surpasses the excitement of the NFL and College Football during the month of October.


That being said, listed below are the best and worst trends for NFL teams during the month of October.


We’ll be back next month with the best and the worst that November has to offer. Enjoy!


HOME TEAMS


Good: Pittsburgh is 31-15 ATS as home favorites this month, but its difficult to back them against Baltimore (10/1) and Arizona (10/18) without Ben Roethlisberger under center.


Keep an eye on (Good): Who knows who the quarterback will be for Cleveland by the time Oct.18th rolls around, but we do know the Browns are 19-10 ATS this month at home and they will be underdogs when Denver arrives.


After a poor opening month, San Diego will have three shots to improve 25-16 ATS record in their building against Cleveland (10/4), Pittsburgh (10/12) and Oakland (10/25).


Keep an eye on (Bad): There is seldom much good to say about Jacksonville and this is yet another example. The Jaguars are 14-22 ATS in north Florida and only Houston will visit on the 18th, having sent the other home game to London.


AWAY TEAMS


Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina makes football bettors a lot of money on the road as evidenced by 24-15 ATS mark. In October, they have division game at Tampa Bay (10/4) and long trip to Seattle two weeks later.


Another squad which has been road warriors in the New York football Giants, who are 28-16 ATS and chances are they will not mind trips to Buffalo (10/4) or Philadelphia on the third Monday of the month.


Bad: Arizona has through the years struggled in Eastern Time zones and overall in the second month of the season they are desultory 13-26 ATS. If Carson Palmer stays healthy, the Cardinals can break away from their past at Detroit (10/11) and at Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks.


Keep an eye on (Bad): Even when San Francisco has been a very good team, October roadies always gave them fits and they are 18-35 ATS. Off two wicked September away beatdowns, just one road contest in New Jersey versus the Giants (10/11).


Waiting for Tampa Bay to playing consistently, well, it is like waiting for a blood moon… it just doesn't happen very often. The Buccaneers are 15-27 ATS as visitors and have only one stop, in Washington on the 25th.


FAVORITES


Good: Note - Cleveland is 11-5 ATS, but cannot forecast this role for them.


Keep an eye on (Good): St. Louis has generally improved in the second month of the season, at least against the oddsmakers and is 20-11 ATS in this role. On the last Sunday of the month, the Browns pay a visit to the nearby Arch, with the Rams seeking to improve record. (Note: San Francisco is 39-23, but do not look here as favorites in October)


Bad: This will be a telling month for Cincinnati after hot start. The Bengals will be shorter home favorites versus Kansas City and Seattle to get things going, but are Halloween scary 9-23 ATS handing points. Trick or Treat?


Keep an eye on (Bad): With the almost Super Bowl champions Seattle off to a sluggish start in 2015, they need to win to build quick momentum. Being favored against Detroit (10/5) and Carolina (10/18) at home and a quick trip top Frisco four days later should help, but can you trust a team with 14-26 ATS record in this role?


Tampa Bay's already a favorite this year at home and failed miserably against Tennessee. With Sunshine State partner Jacksonville visiting on the 11th, will the Bucs be better than 15-26 ATS mark?


UNDERDOGS


Good: The Steelers are sterling 21-8 ATS catching points in Rocktober (think classic rock FM radio), yet as mentioned above, Mike Vick for Big Ben is not a good trade and Pittsburgh will be an underdog in at least three contests.


Keep an eye on (Good): As stated previously, the New York football Giants are excellent on the road, which makes them worth looking at as underdogs as 28-16 ATS.


Bad: The Niners drain bankrolls as dogs at 11-22 ATS and with matchups against the Packers, at Giants, Ravens and Seahawks, backing them might require a visit to ATM.


Keep an eye on (Bad): Maybe Minnesota's improving defense will make them better as pooches at Denver (10/4) and likely Detroit (10/25). The Vikings ship has mostly sunk catching points at 14-26 ATS.


Seattle is 21-32 ATS as underdogs this month and they should catch a small number in Cincy on the 11th.


DIVISION


Keep an eye on (Good): At 21-11 ATS, Atlanta pays a visit to the bayou on third Thursday of the month.


Not easy to imagine Chicago makes 21-12 ATS record better in the Motor City on the 18th. Same goes for San Fran when the Seahawks make annual visit on the 22rd. The 49ers are 21-13 ATS.


Pittsburgh has Baltimore on the first day of the month and will need their defense and running game to make 25-14 ATS record better.


Bad: New Orleans has the Dirty Birds in town in the middle of the month and shorter sportsbook figure gives them an opportunity to improve on 12-24 ATS mark.


Keep an eye on (Bad): Possibly Seattle will be such a large division road favorite in the Bay Area, they will not have chance to beat 15-27 ATS record.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 6 Essentials
October 12, 2015




It feels like NFL rivalry week, kids. The schedule starts with the undefeated Falcons visiting the desperate Saints, ends with the Eagles and Giants playing for NFC East supremacy and features John Harbaugh visiting San Francisco. The marquee game will be the Deflategate Bowl, as Tom Brady leads the Patriots into Indianapolis for a spicy
Sunday-nighter. Let’s dive into Week 6.


Thursday, Oct. 15


Atlanta at New Orleans:


Although he’s been on the injury report every week, Julio Jones actually looked injured for the first time in the Falcons OT win over Washington. Word is he significantly aggravated a hamstring strain in practice last Thursday, which doesn’t bode well for the Falcons given this short week. It does help to be facing a Saints defense that got lit up by an inconsistent Sam Bradford and hasn’t beaten an NFL starting quarterback yet. Drew Brees' throwing shoulder isn’t 100 percent either, so we’ll see how his injured throwing shoulder responds to having to play two games in a five-day span. The Saints have won 7 of 9 at home in this series, but lost at the Superdome last December 30-14.


Sunday, Oct. 18


Denver at Cleveland:


Beating the Ravens in OT quiets Johnny Manziel talk for another week, especially since Josh McCown has shown great poise in leading Browns comeback bids the past two weeks. He’ll have to face a tremendous Broncos defense that has undeniably been the primary reason for their undefeated start, so he won’t be throwing for 457 yards like he managed to in Baltimore. He has developed a great relationship with tight end Gary Barnidge, who should be a main focus of Denver’s defensive game plan. The Broncos haven’t given up a touchdown to a tight end all season, but do rank among the worst in yards per catch against that position.


Cincinnati at Buffalo:


The Bills were amazingly not the most penalized team on the field in Sunday’s 14-13 win at Tennessee, being whistled for seven infractions after 17 in Week 4 had them on pace to become the most penalized team in NFL history. Buffalo beat the Titans in spite of just 3.2 yards per pass attempt, but Rex Ryan praised Tyrod Taylor’s heart as the difference in coming back from a 10-0 deficit. Taylor became the second QB since 1966 to throw for at least 100 yards, run for at least 70 and catch a pass. He’ll hope for more help than he had last week with rookie RB Karlos Williams (concussion) and Sammy Watkins (calf) potentially back. LeSean McCoy is likely still out with his hamstring tear as the undefeated Bengals come to town fresh off their stunning comeback win over Seattle.


Kansas City at Minnesota:


Jamaal Charles has been lost for the season with an ACL tear, so there may be some negativity lingering, especially since the Chiefs ended up blowing a double-digit lead against awful Chicago. The Vikings come off a bye and should be relatively healthy but lost coming off their week off in Mike Zimmer’s first season. Ironically, that setback came against last year’s woeful Bears squad, but Adrian Peterson wasn’t part of the equation and changes things dramatically. He’s averaging 93 rushing yards per game and leads the NFL with two runs of 40 yards or more.


Houston at Jacksonville:


Brian Hoyer will get his first start since Week 1 after taking back the quarterback job from Ryan Mallett in last Thursday’s loss to Indianapolis. Outside of the game-clinching interception, he really moved the Texans nicely, completing 19 of 21 before the ill-conceived throw that ended the comeback bid. The Texans are hoping to have Jadeveon Clowney out there after he turned his ankle against Indy, while Jacksonville is expecting that QB Blake Bortles will overcome a strain of his right throwing shoulder in order to start. Chad Henne would go if Bortles can’t play. The Jaguars also badly missed top linebacker Paul Posluzny in Sunday’s loss at Tampa Bay and could have him back from an ankle injury.


Chicago at Detroit:


Consecutive wins over the Raiders and Chiefs have the Bears at 2-3 despite being outscored by 56 points through the first five games. Only the 49ers have a larger deficit while these Lions have been outscored by 55. Jay Cutler has made plays down the stretch in both Chicago wins, leading a pair of fourth-quarter comebacks despite the absence of top receiver Alshon Jeffery, who should finally return this week. Matthew Stafford was benched during Detroit’s lopsided loss to Arizona, but will start ahead of Dan Orlovsky. The Lions are the only winless team in the league but are favored here, which means the Ford family could fire Jim Caldwell if the team suffers another loss here.


Washington at N.Y. Jets:


Coming off a bye week after an impressive performance in London that ended the Joe Philbin era in Miami, the Jets are looking to remain firmly entrenched in the AFC playoff picture. First-year head coach Todd Bowles adds talented DT Sheldon Richardson to the defensive line rotation, fortifying a unit that has already been the driving force behind surrendering the fewest points in the league. Kirk Cousins’ final pass this past Sunday was returned the other way by Atlanta for a game-ending score in OT, so he’ll have atonement as added motivation here. He’s had three multi-interception games this season and Washington hasn’t survived them once. The ‘Skins are 2-0 when he’s not picked off.


Arizona at Pittsburgh:


The Cardinals bounced back from their first loss with a lopsided win in Detroit and have now outscored opponents by a full 100 points through the first five games. All four of Arizona’s wins have come by double-digits, so the Steelers will have their work cut out for them on a short week coming off the Monday night game in San Diego. With Ben Roethlisberger still out, Michael Vick will be facing by far the best defense he’s seen to date. With weapons like LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown at his disposal, this could wind up being the week’s most exciting game if Vick does his part.


Miami at Tennessee:


Dan Campbell’s turn as interim head coach begins as Miami looks to turn things around following a disastrous start. The Dolphins expected to make the playoffs and were talking Super Bowl when the season began, so they feel they have enough talent on the roster to go on a run. Coming off a bye, look for a Ndamakong Suh-led defensive line to try and get after Marcus Mariota. The Titans have blown fourth-quarter leads in each of the last two games and have been outscored 42-16 in the fourth quarter, so Ken Whisenhunt still has to teach his young team how to finish. Tennessee is 1-9 at home on his watch.


Carolina at Seattle:


The Panthers come out of their bye week hoping that linebacker Luke Kuechly will be cleared after spending the last month unable to clear the NFL’s concussion protocol. Although the Seahawks have a losing record in common with Carolina’s first four opponents, they’re by far the best team Cam Newton and Co. will have seen to date. Panthers’ victims Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans and Tampa Bay are a combined 4-15, so this will be more of a test, especially on the road where Seattle is so dominant. Coming off a devastating OT loss in Cincinnati, the Seahawks will undoubtedly be cranky.


San Diego at Green Bay:


Aaron Rodgers’ interception-less streak ended in Sunday’s 24-10 win over St. Louis, but the Packers did win their 11th consecutive game at Lambeau Field. The Chargers haven’t played in Green Bay since 2007 and haven’t won there since 1984, so we’ll see if Philip Rivers can find a way to break through. Green Bay’s defense hasn’t received the attention it deserves due to Rodgers’ brilliance, but they’ve allowed just 16. 1 points per game, tops in the NFC and good for third in the NFL behind the Jets and Broncos.


Baltimore at San Francisco:


Colin Kaepernick’s slump finally ended thanks to a terrific Sunday night effort against the Giants, as he threw for a pair of TDs and completed 23 of 35 passes for 262 yards. Anquan Boldin was targeted 12 times with Vernon Davis still absent, while Torrey Smith caught both balls that came his way, so the passing game may finally be starting to gain traction. The banged-up Ravens arriving with Harbaugh in tow will generate plenty of headlines, but he may not be able to avenge his brother’s controversial departure considering the state of a defense that now may be without LB Elvis Dumervil, who aggravated a groin injury in Sunday’s OT loss to Cleveland.


New England at Indianapolis:


Andrew Luck should be back after missing the last two games with an injury to his right throwing shoulder and faces increased pressure since Matt Hasselbeck has managed to go 2-0 in spite of an inconsistent offensive line. The Patriots will have revenge on their minds given what they went through this entire offseason after the Colts blew the whistle on them, sparking a controversy over the deflating of footballs in the first half of January’s AFC Championship Game loss. The Patriots haven’t lost a game since December of 2014 and one can argue they’ll want to win this one as badly as they wanted to claim Super Bowl XLIX. Bill Belichick’s team has won their past two games by a margin of 81-23.


Monday, Oct. 19


N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia:


Despite their well-documented struggles with injuries and inconsistency, the Eagles are home with an opportunity to climb to the top of the NFC East if they can hold serve against the visiting Giants. Eli Manning shattered Phil Simms’ long-standing single-game record for most completions with 41 against San Francisco. We’ll see if he’ll finally get Victor Cruz back, which is more of a necessity since Reuben Randle is now nursing a hamstring injury. Chip Kelly is 3-1 against New York and seems to finally have a firmer grip on what he wants to accomplish offensively. The Eagles managed to score 39 points against the Saints despite Bradford throwing a pair of interceptions in the end zone.

 

[CNOTES]

AP Source: Dwight Freeney agrees to 1-year deal with Cards
October 12, 2015


TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) The Arizona Cardinals have signed veteran defensive end/outside linebacker Dwight Freeney to a one-year contract, a person with knowledge of the situation said Monday.


The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the signing had not been officially announced by the club.


The move comes after the Cardinals' top outside pass rusher, Alex Okafor, went down with a calf injury in Sunday's 42-17 victory at Detroit.


The 35-year-old Freeney, a seven-time Pro Bowl player and three-time first team All Pro, ranks 21st in the NFL in career sacks with 111 1/2 and led the league with 16 sacks in 2004.


His best years came with the Indianapolis Colts from 2002 through 2012. He was with the San Diego Chargers the past two years before being released in the offseason.


Okafor was sent back to Arizona for tests and there was no word on the severity of his injury. Another Cardinals player, inside linebacker Kenny Demens - a significant contributor on special teams - tore an ACL in the game, coach Bruce Arians said.


The Cardinals are spending the week at The Greenbrier resort in West Virginia, using the New Orleans Saints' training camp facility there to prepare for Sunday's game at Pittsburgh, rather than making two long flights to and from Arizona.


At his regular Monday session with reporters, Arians wouldn't comment on the Freeney reports.


But in his weekly radio appearance, the coach confirmed the Cardinals were in talks with Freeney. Arians said the Cardinals also had talked to Freeney in the offseason.


''But the young guys came around,'' Arians said. ''There wasn't an opportunity. Now there's an opportunity.''


Freeney has 43 career forced fumbles but his speed off the edge has diminished with age. He hasn't had double digit sacks since his 10 in 2010.


Still, he had 40 quarterback hurries last season, along with 3 1/2 sacks.


Okafor, a fourth-round draft pick out of Texas in 2013, led the Cardinals in sacks last season with eight sacks and 12 quarterback hits, despite missing the first three games due to injury. He has a team-best two sacks this season.

 

[CNOTES]

Luck's status has Deflate-gate rematch line in limbo


Books are holding off on posting a line for this week's Colts-Patriots game until Andrew Luck's status is determined.


Based on the 2014 NFL season, it appeared that Week 6 of the 2015 season would feature a showdown between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts. It would be a rematch of the AFC Championship Game – aka Deflategate.


New England (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) still looks like the team that rolled to a 45-7 home win laying 7 points in that game. The Pats then went on to beat Seattle in the Super Bowl. On Sunday at undermanned Dallas, Tom Brady & Co. rumbled to a 30-6 victory as an 8-point favorite.


Indianapolis (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS) has managed to post three consecutive wins, but has struggled against inferior competition without Andrew Luck (shoulder) under center the past two weeks. Playing the Thursday night game in Week 5, the Colts rode backup QB Matt Hasselbeck and running back Frank Gore to a 27-20 win at Houston as a 5-point underdog.


John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, said he’ll hold off on posting a line until Luck’s status is determined.


“It appears the Colts organization is going to be understandably cautious with Luck,” Lester said. “That said, we are going to hold off hanging a line until his status is a bit more definitive. If Luck is out, which we anticipate, the Patriots will be at least touchdown chalk, and at that number, the public will be backing them again.”


Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, said without Luck, Indy will be another footnote for New England.


“The Pats have been mowing down opponents, and without Andrew Luck, the Colts may just become additional blades of grass,” Avello said.


Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (OFF)


Arizona could easily be among the ranks of the unbeaten this year, with its lone loss a 24-22 upset as a 7-point home chalk to St. Louis in Week 4. But the Cardinals (4-1 SU and ATS) bounced back in a big way Sunday at Detroit, hammering the Lions 42-17 as a 4-point road fave.


Pittsburgh is still trying to bide its time while QB Ben Roethlisberger recovers from a left knee injury. The Steelers (2-2 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) blew a great chance to beat Baltimore in Week 4, tumbling 23-20 in overtime as a 3-point pup with Michael Vick at quarterback. The Steelers will also have a shorter week, playing in the Monday nighter tonight at San Diego.


“I really do believe that the Cardinals are a quality team and have all the pieces it takes to win it all,” Avello said. “But the five teams they've faced have a total of six wins among them. This will be a stiffer test.”


With Pittsburgh in action tonight, the line isn’t yet posted.


“If the Steelers don’t suffer any major injuries on Monday night, then we’ll open the Cardinals as short road chalk,” Lester said. “This will be the second good test for the Cardinals, and the first was their only defeat (a 24-22 home loss to St. Louis). Michael Vick has enough talent around him to be serviceable and keep games against quality opponents competitive.”


Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)


Carolina (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) puts its perfect record on the line with a coast-to-coast road trip for which the Panthers are well-rested. Carolina had its bye in Week 5, after bouncing Tampa Bay 37-23 giving 3 points on the road in Week 4.


Seattle (2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) is almost assuredly fuming after blowing a 24-7 lead Sunday by giving up 17 points to Cincinnati in the fourth quarter, then losing 27-24 in overtime to push as a 3-point road ‘dog. Allowing such a rally certainly wasn’t becoming of the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks, but last year, they were 3-3 SU and ATS through six weeks, then plowed through the rest of the season to return to the Super Bowl.


“It will be interesting to see how the betting community reacts to this game,” Lester said. “The Panthers are coming off a bye, but this is the first good team they’ve seen all year. It’s too early to label this a must-win situation for the Seahawks, but they really do need a win here at home.


“This spread might fluctuate a half point either way, but I expect we will have good two-way action for this one.”


Avello isn’t sold on the Panthers, but also has reservations about Seattle.


“The Panthers are playing with confidence, but they've also played a weak schedule, the weakest of any team thus far,” Avello said. “The last time these two met was in last season's divisional playoff round, where the Seahawks were an 11-point home favorite (in a 31-17 win). Don't expect to see anything close to that number, as the ‘Hawks aren't on par with last year's squad, and the Panthers are a much closer comparison to where they were last season.”


Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)


With Baltimore unraveling and Pittsburgh trying to hang in without Ben Roethlisberger, Cincinnati has assumed control in the AFC North. The Bengals (5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS), 3-point home faves against Seattle on Sunday, rallied from a 24-7 fourth-quarter deficit to win 27-24 in overtime.
Buffalo (3-2 SU and ATS) has looked perhaps a little better than expected under new coach Rex Ryan. On Sunday, the Bills squeaked out a 14-13 win catching 1 point at Tennessee.
“The Bengals are 5-0, and the perception is they are ready to take on all challengers,” Avello said. “I believe they are going to get that challenge here in a game I opened Buffalo -1.5. The Bengals will have backing at the betting windows, as they are 5-0 against the number, if you were able to lay the -2.5 vs Seattle.”


Lester opened the game at pick ‘em and quickly moved Cincy to -1.


“We’ll see if there is any kind of letdown for Cincinnati with a tough trip to Orchard Park on deck,” Lester said. “That said, the early money has already come in on the Bengals. If the banged-up Bills don’t get some of their offensive talent back, I expect we will keep shading toward the visitor as the public gamblers get involved.”

 

[CNOTES]

Best betting value takes timing for these NFL Week 6 odds


Experts suggests waiting on the Falcons-Saints game until the line settles down


Game to bet on now


New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)


Call this one the Revenge Bowl. In New England, everyone is still uber-ticked at the Colts for telling the teacher about alleged underinflated footballs and the Patriots are now primed to get even during recess. New England is 4-0, kicking butt and taking names, while Indianapolis has quarterback issues. Add in the fact that the Patriots treat the Colts like the hired help, and it’s surprising that the 7.5 number isn’t higher.


Scorched-earth was the name of the game in 2007 in the wake of SpyGate, and so it will be eight years later. Expect a few Gronk end zone spikes, Brady fired up on the sidelines and a certain steely-eyed hoodie on the sidelines sneaking an occasional look at the Colt owners box with each score.




Game to wait on


Atlanta at New Orleans (+3)


The Falcons are one of four undefeated teams, but are there cracks in the foundation? A mediocre Washington team had Atlanta by the scruff of the neck several times on Sunday before losing on a overtime pick-6, and now there are a few questions about the Falcons’ staying power – at least when wide out Julio Jones is not at 100 percent.


Heavy money is coming in on Atlanta in this one and could move the line, even though books will certainly be reluctant to give the Saints another half-point at home. Might be a good idea to hold off on this one until the line settles and Atlanta gets a better idea of how Jones’s ailing right hamstring feels closer to gametime.




Total to watch


Carolina at Seattle (O/U: 42)


The offense appears to be straightened out in Carolina, where the Panthers have scored progressively more points (20, 24, 27, 37) in each game. But over players need to be careful here, because the Panthers have not moved the ball on anyone of note (Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Houston and Jacksonville are a combined 5-15).


Few teams are able to run the ball against Seattle’s No. 5-ranked defense, and if the Seahawks make the Panther offense one-dimensional, eclipsing 37 points on the road will be a mere pipedream.

 

[CNOTES]

Don't dare let these three spot bet opportunities pass you by


Washington State is coming off a massive upset over Oregon and giving eight points to visiting Oregon State Saturday.


Letdown spot


The Mike Leach experiment at Washington State produced its finest results last weekend when the Cougars upset Oregon 45-38 in double overtime as 15.5-point road underdogs in Eugene. Washington State has long been the Pac-12’s favorite punching bag, but struck back with a monster win over the Ducks, using two crazy touchdowns including a bizarre fumble recovery on the goal line to get the 'W'. The Cougars' social media jockeys trolled the Ducks following the win with a clever "Oregon Trail" meme.


That sets Wazzu up for perhaps the biggest letdown spot of the college football season. Washington State is an 8-point home favorite against Oregon State Saturday afternoon. The Beavers are just 2-3 on the year but have covered in seven straight trips to Pullman and are 11-4 ATS in their previous 15 meetings overall.


Lookahead spot


The New York Jets are coming off a bye week following their victory against Miami in the NFL’s UK game in London. It’s very likely the Jets spent as much time preparing for next week’s opponent – the New England Patriots – as they did for this week’s foe, the Washington Redskins.


New York, at 3-1 SU and ATS, has exceed expectations through four games and has a chance to upend the Pats, who are coming off a tough Sunday night matchup with Indianapolis. That will be the Jets’ first game against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady without Rex Ryan on the sideline in some time. New York, however, is giving six points in Week 6 to a rising Washington squad that has covered in three of its last four outings.


Schedule spot


The San Jose Sharks have a busy travel schedule this week, kicking off Tuesday in the nation’s capitals. San Jose, which opened the season 2-0, takes on Washington then plays a challenging three games in four nights away from home to wrap the week.


Following a showdown with the Capitals, the Sharks hit the ice in New Jersey Friday, travel to Brooklyn to play the Islanders Saturday, rest Sunday, and finish this frantic East Coast trip against the Rangers on Monday. Heading into Tuesday’s game, San Jose was just 2-5 in its last seven versus Metropolitan foes.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (5 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 4) - 10/15/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (5 - 0) at CLEVELAND (2 - 3) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (5 - 0) at BUFFALO (3 - 2) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (1 - 4) at MINNESOTA (2 - 2) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (1 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 4) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (2 - 3) at DETROIT (0 - 5) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (2 - 3) at NY JETS (3 - 1) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
NY JETS are 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (4 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 2) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 63-36 ATS (+23.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
ARIZONA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (1 - 3) at TENNESSEE (1 - 3) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (4 - 0) at SEATTLE (2 - 3) - 10/18/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 75-42 ATS (+28.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 29-57 ATS (-33.7 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (2 - 3) at GREEN BAY (5 - 0) - 10/18/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (1 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 4) - 10/18/2015, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (4 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 2) - 10/18/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 217-176 ATS (+23.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 217-176 ATS (+23.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 169-128 ATS (+28.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in dome games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 107-75 ATS (+24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against AFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (3 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) - 10/19/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 6

Thursday - Oct, 15

Atlanta at New Orleans, 8:25 ET
Atlanta: 9-1 ATS when playing on a Thursday
New Orleans: 27-50 ATS in home games versus division opponents


Sunday - Oct, 18

Denver at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Denver: 20-9 ATS in games played on a grass field
Cleveland: 53-30 UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game

Cincinnati at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 5-19 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game
Buffalo: 9-2 ATS as an underdog

Kansas City at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 9-1 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Minnesota: 2-10 ATS off 4 or more consecutive unders

Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Houston: 45-24 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3
Jacksonville: 1-9 ATS at home after being outrushed by 100+ yards last game

Chicago at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 0-9 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3
Detroit: 16-5 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -4 or worse

Washington at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Washington: 39-23 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7
New York: 6-16 ATS against NFC East division opponents

Arizona at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 13-26 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better
Pittsburgh: 20-7 ATS at home after gaining 6.5 or + yards/play in previous game

Miami at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Miami: 15-5 ATS in road games off in 2 straight division games
Tennessee: 3-11 ATS against conference opponents

Carolina at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Carolina: 23-6 UNDER off a road win against a division rival
Seattle: 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

San Diego at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
San Diego: 2-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Green Bay: 9-2 ATS as a home favorite

Baltimore at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Baltimore: 14-4 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite
San Francisco: 7-0 OVER after allowing 500 or more total yds in previous game

New England at Indianapolis, 8:30 ET
New England: 21-10 ATS in games played on turf
Indianapolis: 0-6 ATS against AFC East division opponents


Monday - Oct, 19

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET
New York: 21-8 ATS in road games after a win by 6 or less points
Philadelphia: 31-16 UNDER after scoring 35 points or more last game

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 15

8:25 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games at home
New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home


Sunday, October 18

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. MINNESOTA
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Jacksonville is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games at home

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. CLEVELAND
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. PITTSBURGH
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY JETS
Washington is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

4:05 PM
CAROLINA vs. SEATTLE
Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 1-5-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. GREEN BAY
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 12 games at home

4:25 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing New England


Monday, October 19

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 6
October 13, 2015




THURSDAY, OCT. 15
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Falcons are 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. line out of the gate. Falcons have covered 3 straight and 4 of last 5 vs. Saints. Saints broke home skid vs. Dallas but still 1-6 SU and vs. line last seven as host.


Tech Edge: Falcons, based on team trends.




SUNDAY, OCT. 18
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos have won and covered first three on road this season. Peyton Manning 34-19 vs. spread in reg season since joining Broncos.


Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bengals 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 vs. line and are now 5-2 vs. spread last seven away. Also "over" 4-1 this season. Bills 2-0 as dog TY and 9-2 last 11 in role. Buffalo "under" 10-2 last 12 at Orchard Park as well.


Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Viking have covered first two at home and now three in a row overall, they're also "under" 12-7-1 since Zimmer took over. Vikes 5-1 vs. spread last six as host. Chiefs have lost and failed to cove last four games, and "under" 7-4 away since last season.


Tech Edge: Vikings and slight to "under," based on team and extended "totals" trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 1-4 SU and vs. line as Bill O'Brien has dropped first two on road. All of that after entering 2015 on 6-2-1 spread uptick away from home. Jags have covered 4 of last 5 meetings.


Tech Edge: Slight to Jags, based on team trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions were 5-2-1 as home chalk LY and have maintained their "under" trending, now "under" 14-7 since Caldwell assumed command last season (3-2 "under" TY). Lions 5-1 vs. spread last six in series, and have covered last five at Ford Field vs. Bears.


Tech Edge: Lions and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at N.Y. JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets are 3-1 both SU and ATS for rookie coach Todd Bowles. Redskins are 6-12 vs. spread last 18 on road. Jets "under" 9-3 last 12 since mid 2014. Skins "under" 9-5 last 14.


Tech Edge: "Under" and Jets, based on "totals" and team trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at PITTSBURGH (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Arians back in Pittsburgh where he coached for many years. Big Red 11-3 vs. spread last 13 on road. Cards also "over" 5-0 to begin season.


Tech Edge: Cardinals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins on 1-8 spread skid since late last season, helping to oust Philbin. Dolphins "under" 8-4 last 12 away from home. Titans were 1-7 vs. line at home LY but covered first as host TY vs. Colts.


Tech Edge: Titans, based on Dolphins woes.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Playoff rematch from LY when Panthers pushed Seahawks but would lose 31-17. Carolina 5-2-1 last 8 vs. line in reg. season and 16-10 last 26 as dog. Carolina also "over" 8-3 last 11 away. Pete 19-7 vs. spread as host reg season since 2012.


Tech Edge: Slight to "over" and Seahawks, based on extended "totals" and team trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN DIEGO at GREEN BAY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bolts on 3-13 spread skid after Monday loss vs. Steelers. Also just 2-7 last 9 as dog. Pack 24-10-1 last 35 vs. line at Lambeau, also "over" 10-4 last 14 as reg season host.


Tech Edge: Packers and "over," based on Pack trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Not long ago this was a Super Bowl matchup. 49ers dropped three straight after opening win vs. Vikes. Ravens also just 1-4 vs. line. SF just 3-7 vs. line in new Santa Clara home, also "under" 8-2 last 10 as host. Ravens "under" 4-1 last five on reg season road.


Tech Edge: "Under," based on "totals" trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at INDIANAPOLIS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Deflate-gate rematch! Pats have really owned Colts and this series, winning and covering huge the past four meetings (playoffs included) since Andrew Luck joined Indy in 2012. All of those games "over" as well as have been 17 of last 25 for Pats on road.


Tech Edge: Patriots and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


MONDAY, OCT. 17
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Birds won and covered both meetings LY but Chip Kelly just 3-6 last 9 vs. line since late LY (one of those Ws vs. NYG). Birds also "under" 4-1 this season. G-Men four straight covers on road.


Tech Edge: Giants, based on recent trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Game to Watch
October 14, 2015




ATLANTA FALCONS (5-0) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (1-4)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Atlanta -3, Total: 51


The undefeated Falcons kick off Week 6 with a Thursday night visit to the Big Easy to face their divisional rival Saints.


Atlanta (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) rolls into this week’s matchup riding high atop the NFC South after eking out an overtime win against the Redskins last Sunday.


At the other end of the division, New Orleans (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) coughed up four turnovers en route to a 39-17 loss to the Eagles in a sloppy defeat last Sunday.


The last time the teams met at the Superdome the Falcons came to town with five victories under their belt (though it occurred in Week 16 of the 2014 season). Atlanta won that game 30-14, eliminating New Orleans from playoff contention.


The Saints have a slight edge over the Falcons since 1992, with a 24-22 SU record, though Atlanta has been more successful ATS, with a record of 28-18.


The matchup trends favor the Falcons, who are 9-1 ATS in Thursday night games since 1992, though it should be noted they are 6-23 ATS after gaining 375+ total yards in consecutive games over the same period.


The Saints have some coaching trends in their favor, with head coach Sean Payton posting a record of 12-2 ATS versus very good offensive teams (27+ PPG) and 20-8 ATS coming off a road loss during his tenure in New Orleans.


Atlanta has stayed fairly healthy this year, with only LB Justin Durant (elbow) designated as questionable for Thursday.


Several Saints came out of Sunday banged up, and DL Bobby Richardson (hip), OT Terron Armstead (knee), G Jahri Evans (knee), and P Thomas Morstead (quad) are all questionable for Thursday.


The Falcons’ high-flying offense has been the key to their success so far this season. Captained by QB Matt Ryan, the team ranks 3rd in the NFL in points scored (32.4 PPG), 4th in total yards (2,031), 6th in fewest turnovers allowed (5, though 3 of them occurred last week).


Ryan is only 5-8 SU (7-6 ATS) in this series, but has always enjoyed visiting the Superdome with 328 passing YPG, 9 TD and 2 INT in those five visits. Atlanta also leads the league in rushing touchdowns (10), thanks to the explosive rise of RB Devonta Freeman. The second-year pro already has 645 total yards (129 YPG) and is coming off a season-high 153 rushing yards on 5.7 YPC in the win over Washington.


Superstar WR Julio Jones has been relatively quiet the past two weeks while dealing with nagging hamstring and toe issues, only hauling in five catches on 10 looks for 67 yards on Sunday. He did manage to find the end zone for the first time since Week 3, though it was on a recovered fumble. Atlanta’s defense has performed ably, allowing 22.4 PPG to opponents (15th out of 32), while generating 10 turnovers (6th out of 32).


The Falcons have been elite against the run outside of the red zone, allowing a league best 392 yards, though they’ve given up eight rushing touchdowns, second-worst in the NFL.


The Saints’ offense, led by future Hall-of-Fame QB Drew Brees, has been predictably productive, ranking 7th in the league for total offense (1,937), 3rd in passing yards (1,510), and 6th in First Downs (112).


They’ve had some struggles finding the end zone, however, scoring just 103 points on the season (21st out of 32), and ball protection has been a season-long issue (10 turnovers, 26th out of 32).


Tellingly, their only win on the season, a 26-20 overtime victory over the Cowboys, happened to be the Saints’ only game without a giveaway so far this year. Brees is 13-6 SU (10-9 ATS) all-time versus the Falcons, averaging 305 passing YPG with 36 TD and 22 INT. He'll try to take the pressure off a lackluster ground game with 85 YPG on 3.6 YPC.


New Orleans’ defense has been the team’s Achilles heel thus far this season, giving up the most yards (2,045) and first downs (122). The club is surrendering 28.6 PPG (29th out of 32), and allowing opposing QBs to gain 8.4 net yards per pass attempt, a league worst.


Penalties have also plagued the Saints, who average nine calls against and 89 yards lost in home games so far this season.

 

[soysauce023]

thanks for the legit info sir!!

 

[CNOTES]

B]NFL TOP WEEKLY TRENDS[/B]


(263) ARIZONA AT (264) PITTSBURGH ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 6.75 yards per attempt(CS)( $790 Prot with a 71.8% ROI )


(269) SAN DIEGO AT (270) GREEN BAYGREEN BAY is 33-15-2 ATS(L50G) at HOME - As favorite( $1650 Prot with a 30.0% ROI )


(267) CAROLINA AT (268) SEATTLESEATTLE is 8-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - as favorite of 7 or less points( $690 Prot with a 69.7% ROI )71.8% ROITEAMS TO PLAY ON30.0% ROI69.7% ROI


(263) ARIZONA AT (264) PITTSBURGHPITTSBURGH is 7-1-1 OVER(L3Y) - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS)( $590 Prot with a 59.6% ROI )


(259) CHICAGO AT (260) DETROITCHICAGO is 9-0 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against inefcient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per point(CS)( $900 Prot with a 90.9% ROI )


(269) SAN DIEGO AT (270) GREEN BAYGREEN BAY is 6-1 OVER(L7G) at HOME - VS AFC-WEST( $490 Prot with a 63.6% ROI )59.6% ROIGAMES TO PLAY OVER90.9% ROI63.6% ROI


(257) HOUSTON AT (258) JACKSONVILLEJACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS(L5Y) - Against anemic rushing teams averaging less than 3.6 yards per carry(CS)( $790 Prot with a 71.8% ROI )


(269) SAN DIEGO AT (270) GREEN BAYSAN DIEGO is 1-6 ATS(L7G) on ROAD - VS NFC-NORTH( $490 Prot with a 63.6% ROI )


(271) BALTIMORE AT (272) SAN FRANCISCOSAN FRANCISCO is 1-7-1 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6 yards per play(CS)( $590 Prot with a 59.6% ROI )71.8% ROITEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST63.6% ROI59.6% ROI


(103) ATLANTA AT (104) NEW ORLEANSATLANTA is 9-0 UNDER(L2Y) - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per play(CS)( $900 Prot with a 90.9% ROI )


(253) CINCINNATI AT (254) BUFFALOBUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 3.0 points per game(CS)( $780 Prot with a 59.1% ROI )


(251) DENVER AT (252) CLEVELANDCLEVELAND is 6-1 UNDER(L5Y) - VS Opp With 1000 or more travel miles( $490 Prot with a 63.6% ROI

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6


Atlanta @ New Orleans

Game 103-104
October 15, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
132.913
New Orleans
134.009
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 1
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3 1/2); Over




NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday's game
Falcons (5-0) @ Saints (1-4)-- Atlanta is 5-0 but trailed in 4th quarter in four of five games; they're 5-13 in last 18 games with New Orleans, losing nine of last 11 visits here. Saints are -5 in turnovers, giving up 28.6 ppg (over 3-2)- they're giving up 135.8 rushing yards/game. Over last 8+ years, NO is 1-2 as home dog; they're 8-5 vs spread in last 13 home divisional games. Three of five Falcon wins are by 4 or less points or in OT; since '10, they're 12-8-1 as road favorite, 1-0 this year. Saints have yet to lead at half (0-4-1); team that won second half won all five of their games. Atlanta has three defensive TDs in last two games; they're 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 NFC South road games. Both NO home games stayed under.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Wednesday, October 14




Falcons' WR Julio Jones expected to play Thursday night


Atlanta Falcons star wide receiver Julio Jones is expected to suit up Thursday night in New Orleans when the Falcons face the Saints, despite dealing with a hamstring injury.


It should be noted that the team will monitor Jones' snaps and could be on a so called 'pitch count'. But with the star wideout in the lineup, the Falcons have moved to 3.5-point road favorites.




Cowboys to go with Cassel at QB after bye


The Dallas Cowboys will start Matt Cassel at quarterback in Week 7 against the New York Giants following their bye week, after dropping their third straight game this weekend.


The team is winless since stater Tony Romo went down with a broken collarbone and he will miss at least four more games, before he is eligible to come off the I-R.


Cassel replaces Brandon Weeden, who went 0-3 straight up and against the spread as the starter.




Bills' QB Taylor says he plans to play Sunday


When Buffalo Bills starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor was asked Wednesday if would play Sunday's game against Cincinnati he responded, "That's the plan."


It had been reported that Taylor could miss several weeks due to an MCL sprain suffered on a horse collar tackle in the forth quarter of last Sunday's 14-13 win over Tennessee.


The Bills are currently 3.5-point home dogs, but Taylor added it would be the coach's final decision as to whether or not he would suit up.




Colts re-sign RB Bradshaw


Running back Ahmad Bradshaw re-signed with the Indianapolis Colts on Wednesday, the team announced.


The Colts were a little short at running back and the signing of Bradshaw gives then veteran experience behind starter Frank Gore.


Bradshaw rushed for 725 yards and eight touchdowns in 10 games for the Colts in 2014 before sustaining a season-ending broken left leg in a game against the New England Patriots in November.


Last year, he also served a one-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy, following his no-contest plea to a marijuana charge.


Bradshaw became a free agent in March after playing for the Colts on one-year contracts the last two seasons.




Lions LB Levy to undergo hip surgery


Detroit Lions linebacker DeAndre Levy will undergo surgery on his injured hip, head coach Jim Caldwell announced Wednesday.


Caldwell said no decision has been made regarding whether or not Levy will be placed on the injured reserve list. Levy will out of the lineup indefinitely.


Levy missed the first four games of the season because of the hip problem before returning to the lineup against the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday. He reaggravated the injury in the 42-17 loss, leaving the game in the first half and did not return. He did not record any tackles.


The 28-year-old Levy was a second-team All-Pro selection in 2014 after recording 151 tackles, 2.5 sacks and one interception. Levy signed a five-year extension with the Lions before the start of the season.




Patriots LT Solder (biceps) out for season


New England Patriots starting left tackle Nate Solder will miss the remainder of the season with a torn right biceps that will require surgery, according to reports Wednesday.


Solder was injured late in the second quarter of Sunday's 30-6 victory over the Dallas Cowboys.


Solder left the field on his own after Cowboys defensive tackle Tyrone Crawford registered an 8-yard sack of quarterback Tom Brady. Solder's right arm appeared to be extended in a compromising position as Crawford rushed past him on the play.


Solder has started every game for the Patriots over the last two seasons and has only missed one game since he joined the Patriots as a first-round draft choice in 2011.


Five-year veteran Marcus Cannon is the Patriots' top backup, and replaced Solder on Sunday.




Bills WR Watkins (calf) expects to face Bengals


Wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who has missed the last two games because of a calf injury, said on Wednesday that he expects to play this week when the Buffalo Bills face the Cincinnati Bengals.


Watkins practiced on Wednesday and said he plans to be in the lineup.


"I understand the presence of me on the field," Watkins told the Buffalo News. "I feel like the offense has been basic without me out there. ... Defenses have been having their way with just stacking the box with the run game. … I think I'm going to open a lot of things up.


" ... If (the calf) pops, it pops."


Quarterback Tyrod Taylor of the Bills is dealing with a knee injury and might not play, but Watkins said he expects backup quarterback EJ Manuel to have "a monster game" against the Bengals.




Broncos might be without OLB Ware (back)


Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware did not practice with the Denver Broncos on Wednesday and there is a growing likelihood that he will not play on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.


Ware left last Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders because of back spasms.


"We've got to get DeMarcus well," coach Gary Kubiak said. "Obviously, we missed him through the course of (Sunday), but our depth showed up."


Shane Ray and Shaq Barrett shared Ware's spot in the second half and each recorded a sack while combining for five tackles and two quarterback hits.


Fellow outside linebacker Von Miller said Tuesday that Ware might be out "a couple weeks."




Packers the team to beat heading into Week 6


The Green Bay Packers are the Super Bowl 50 favorites at 5/2 after thanks to a 24-10 win over St. Louis Rams this Sunday and improving their record to 5-0.


According to the Westgate LV Superbook, the Packers have been the favorites to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy for the last several weeks and have been followed closely by the also undefeated New England Patriots at 7/2.


The Denver Broncos have the next best odds, followed by the trio of the Cincinnati Bengals, the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks all at 10/1.




Another week, another hit for Seahawks' SB 50 odds


The Seattle Seahawks' Super Bowl 50 odds have fallen once again and the defending NFC champs now sit at 10/1 to win it all.


Since opening the season as the 9-2 favorites to win Super Bowl 50, according to the Westgate LV Superbook, not much has gone right for the Seaahawks, who sit at 2-3 after giving up another fourth quarter lead in their 27-24 overtime loss to Cincinnati in Week 5.


The Seahawks host 4-0 Carolina in Week 6 and are currently favored by 7-poin

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Thursday, October 15


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Falcons at Saints
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The Falcons will try to make it a perfect 6-0 when they visit their division rivals, the Saints on Thursday night.


Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+3, 51)


Having mastered the art of the comeback, the undefeated Atlanta Falcons look to become the first team in the NFL to six wins when they visit the struggling New Orleans Saints on Thursday night in an NFC South matchup. Atlanta made history last week by becoming the first team to start 5-0 when trailing in the fourth quarter in four of those victories.


“Being 5-0 is just a real clear demonstration of how hard the guys all want to play for one another,” Falcons first-year coach Dan Quinn said. "I think it shows a lot of the character and the toughness of the men in the room." Atlanta escaped with a 25-19 win over Washington last week when cornerback Robert Alford returned an interception for a touchdown in overtime. The Saints registered a dramatic overtime victory of their own at home against Dallas on Oct. 4. The momentum was short-lived, however, as New Orleans was overwhelmed in a 39-17 loss at Philadelphia last week.


TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.


LINE HISTORY:


The Falcons opened as 3-point road favorites and briefly moved up to -3.5, but have since moved back to the opening number and remained there ever since. The total hasn't moved off the opening number of 51.


INJURY REPORT:


Atlanta - G M. Person (questionable Thursday, ankle), LB J. Durant (questionable Thursday, elbow), WR L. Hankerson (questionable Thursday, ribs), WR D. Hester (early December, toe).


Saints - G J. Evans (probable Thursday, knee), P T. Morstead (questionable Thursday, leg), T T. Armstead (questionable Thursday, knee), DE B. Richardson (questionable Thursay, hip), WR M. Colston (out Thursday, shoulder).


POWER RANKINGS:


Falcons(-4) - Saints(+4) + home field(-3) = Saints +3


WHAT CAPPERS SAY:


"Two years ago it was the 5-0 Saints taking on the 1-4 Falcons. The roles have reversed with Atlanta looking to start 6-0 for the second time in four years while New Orleans hopes to improve on a recent 1-6 SU and ATS slide at home. Given the fact that the Falcons are 6-0 ATS on Thursdays in NFC South division games, look for the Saints’ suffering ways to continue tonight."


ABOUT THE FALCONS (5-0, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U):


Devonta Freeman moved into the starting lineup when rookie running back Tevin Coleman suffered a rib injury in Week 2 and he hasn't looked back, becoming the first player in the Super Bowl era to rush for at least seven touchdowns in his first three career starts. After opening the season with three monster games and scoring four touchdowns, Falcons wideout Julio Jones has been kept in check over the past two games with only nine catches for 105 yards. Quarterback Matt Ryan looks to rebound from his worst game after throwing for 254 yards with two interceptions and a fumble.


ABOUT THE SAINTS (1-4, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U):


New Orleans allowed 29 unanswered points in last week's rout at Philadelphia and the league's worst defense (409.0 yards per game) was shredded for 34 first downs and 519 total yards. Quarterback Drew Brees, who sat out Week 3 while dealing with a bruised rotator cuff, threw for a pair of touchdowns and notched his third 300-yard game, but he was picked off once, lost a pair of fumbles and sacked five times. Starting running back Mark Ingram has yet to exceed 77 yards rushing, but wide receiver Willie Snead continues to be a pleasant surprise after hauling in six catches for 141 yards.


TRENDS:


* Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Falcons are 4-1 ATS in the lsat five meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in New Orleans.


CONSENSUS:


The public is strongly behind undefeated Atlanta with 66.88 percent of wagers currently backing the Falcons.

 

[CNOTES]

Public Fades - Week 6
October 14, 2015




Five of six undefeated teams remaining in the NFL hit the road heading into Week 6, as the Packers are the only club in this group to play at home. The Panthers are the only squad to not be listed as a favorite, receiving a touchdown at Seattle, who sits below the .500 mark. Denver and New England each won as road favorites last week and are back on the highway again in Week 6 laying points, but we won’t be focusing on those teams this week.


Cincinnati looks to keep its record unblemished with a trip to Buffalo to take on a beat-up Bills’ squad, while Arizona tries to build its advantage in the NFC West with a victory at Pittsburgh, heading cross-country to Heinz Field. Both the Bills and Steelers are listed as home underdogs, each coming off road victories in Week 5. Are these teams worth betting on with most of the public siding with the Bengals and Cardinals?


Bengals (-3 ½, 42 ½) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST


Only two AFC teams have started 5-0, as the Bengals needed a massive fourth quarter rally to stun the defending NFC champion Seahawks, 27-24 in overtime last Sunday. Cincinnati erased a 24-7 deficit with 17 points in the final 12 minutes of regulation, as quarterback Andy Dalton eclipsed the 300-yard mark for the third consecutive week. The Bengals didn’t cover for the first time this season, but managed a push as three-point home favorites, while hitting the ‘over’ for the fourth time in five games.


The Bills have yet to win consecutive games this season as they enter Sunday’s action at 3-2, fresh off a 14-13 triumph at Tennessee, overcoming a 10-0 deficit. However, Buffalo lost quarterback Tyrod Taylor to a knee injury that will sideline him for Sunday, opening the door for E.J. Manuel to start at quarterback for the Bills for the first time since Week 4 last season at Houston. The Bills have dropped two of three at home this season, but own a fantastic 7-1 ATS record as a home underdog since the start of 2013.


So why back the Bills?


Joe Nelson says there shouldn’t be much of a drop-off under center for the Bills, “Buffalo beat an improved Titans team on the road last week despite only 109 passing yards from Taylor so the impact of Manuel starting is not likely as significant as the line move suggests. The Buffalo defense many expected to be one of the best in the league finally looked the part last week and the numbers against the Bills are a bit inflated from the first two weeks facing Andrew Luck and Tom Brady.”


On the flip side, Nelson points out some flaws with the Bengals’ unbeaten mark, “Cincinnati is 5-0 but they were extremely fortunate to deliver a great comeback win last week and three of the five wins have come by five or fewer points. The Bengals have featured a strong rushing game that could disappear this week against a Bills defense that is allowing just 3.8 yards per rush and 82 yards per game on the ground. Dalton has played well this season but he managed to survive a costly turnover last week and none of the five wins for the Bengals has come against a team that currently has a winning record. Three of the last four games for Cincinnati have also been at home as things may not continue to go quite as well for Cincinnati moving forward.”


Cardinals (-3, 44 ½) at Steelers – 1:00 PM EST


Arizona is the only team in the league to bust the 40-point mark three times, including twice in road victories at Chicago and Detroit. The Cardinals dumped the winless Lions last Sunday at Ford Field, 42-17 to cash as four-point favorites, while creating six turnovers. Arizona has not only put together a 4-1 record through five games, but it has covered in all four victories, while Carson Palmer has thrown at least three touchdowns three times.


The Steelers shocked the Chargers with a last-second Le’Veon Bell touchdown on Monday night, 24-20, to rebound from an overtime loss to Baltimore in Week 4. Pittsburgh has allowed 20 points or less in regulation in four straight games, while limiting San Diego to just 52 yards rushing. Bell rushed for 111 yards and the winning score, but some of the biggest plays were made by Mike Vick, who threw the game-tying 72-yard touchdown to Markus Wheaton and scrambled for 24 yards on the final drive prior to the Bell touchdown.


So why back the Steelers?


Nelson says Pittsburgh is a team not to be forgotten in the AFC, “Vick has one of the most talented receiving corps in the NFL and one of the best running backs in the NFL as he doesn’t need to do it all. Vick did enough for the Steelers to win against a tough Rams defense after replacing Ben Roethlisberger and if not for missed kicks, the Steelers would be riding a four-game win streak since the opening loss at New England as this is still a team that should be considered a serious threat in the AFC.”


NFL expert Antony Dinero echoes that Vick is finding his groove with this Pittsburgh offense, “It’s probably still a week too early to realistically expect Roethlisberger to return, but Vick sprung to life in the fourth quarter on Monday night and has a chance to build on that momentum. Considering how well Bell and D’Angelo Williams are running, Vick only has to throw it accurately, make a few plays with his feet and limit turnovers in order to be effective at home. The Cardinals have a gaudy point differential on the road, but winning in Pittsburgh is going to be a far greater challenge than it was against Jimmy Clausen-led Chicago and winless Detroit.”


Nelson mentions that Arizona hasn’t been tested yet, helping enhance its record, “The Cardinals are 4-1 but none of the teams they have faced has a winning record at this point in the season and they their lone loss came at home against the Rams team that Pittsburgh beat in St. Louis. Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled against the pass statistically but they have faced Brady, Joe Flacco, and Philip Rivers to skew the numbers. The Steelers are allowing just 3.9 yards per rush and 101 rushing yards per game and Arizona won’t likely enjoy the balance on offense that they have had so far this season. The Steelers are also on a 10-2-2 ATS run as a home underdog going back to the 2000 season.”

 

[CNOTES]

Chargers-Packers Capsule
October 15, 2015


SAN DIEGO (2-3) at GREEN BAY (5-0)


Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS


OPENING LINE -Packers by 9


RECORD VS. SPREAD- Chargers 1-4, Packers 5-0


SERIES RECORD - Packers lead 9-1


LAST MEETING - Packers beat Chargers 45-38, Nov. 6, 2011


LAST WEEK - Chargers lost to Steelers 24-20; Packers beat Rams 24-10


AP PRO32 RANKING - Chargers No. 16, Packers No. 2


CHARGERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (3), RUSH (24t), PASS (2).


CHARGERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (15), RUSH (29), PASS (9).


PACKERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (10), RUSH (8), PASS (20).


PACKERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (28), PASS (4).


STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES --


Chargers' only win in series came Oct. 7, 1984, when Dan Fouts threw for 376 yards and three TDs in 34-28 victory. ... Chargers have lost six straight in series. ... Coach Mike McCoy spent rookie NFL season in 1995 as quarterback on Green Bay practice squad. ... QB Philip Rivers' two touchdown passes in loss to Steelers last week gave him 262 for career to pass Dave Krieg for 13th all-time. ... TE Antonio Gates needs three catches to become 32nd player in NFL history with 800 in career. ... Rivers and Gates have connected on 74 touchdown passes, most in league history for quarterback-tight end tandem. ... RB Melvin Gordon is native of Kenosha, Wisconsin, and played in college for Wisconsin Badgers; set major college record for career rushing average at 7.79 yards per carry. ... LB Jerry Attaochu has nine QB hits in last three games. ... Packers are 5-0 for fourth time since 1945. ... Packers have longest active home winning streak, 12 games. ... QB Aaron Rodgers stands 186 yards passing away from 30,000 for career. ... WR James Jones is tops in NFL with seven receptions of 25-plus yards. ... Defense has gotten sack in franchise-record 40 straight regular-season games, longest current streak in league. ... LB Julius Peppers has nine sacks in last nine games, dating back to last season. ... LB Clay Matthews has sack in four straight games, one short of tying career-best streak. ... Fantasy Tip: Rivers, third in league at 322 yards passing per game, will be challenged on road in short week by Packers' defense holding foes to 186 yards passing per game, fourth in NFL.