Cnotes National Basketball League October-November Picks/Trends/News !!

[CNOTES]

NBA Power Poll


Division Rankings


1) Southwest
2) Central
3) Pacific
4) Southeast
5) Northwest
6) Atlantic


Playoff Projections


Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland
2. Miami
3. Chicago
4. Washington
5. Atlanta
6. Toronto
7. Milwaukee
8. Detroit


Western Conference
1. Golden State
2. San Antonio
3. Oklahoma City
4. Houston
5. L.A. Clippers
6. Memphis
7. New Orleans
8. Utah


First Team All-NBA
F- LeBron James, Cleveland
F- Anthony Davis, New Orleans
C- Marc Gasol, Memphis
G- Stephen Curry, Golden State
G- James Harden, Houston


Second Team All-NBA
F- Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
F- Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers
C- DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento
G- Russell Westbrook, OKC
G- John Wall, Washington


Third Team All-NBA
F- Pau Gasol, Chicago
F- Chris Bosh, Miami
C- Dwight Howard, Houston
G- Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
G- Klay Thompson, Golden State


2015-16 NBA Finals Prediction


San Antonio over Cleveland - The call here is that we'll see the LeBron reunion tour come the 2016 postseason. He'll have to go through the Detroit Pistons in the playoffs again, will see Dwyane Wade and his old Heat buddies in the Eastern Conference finals. In the NBA Finals, he'll reprise an ending he's already experienced twice -- losing to the Spurs with the title on the line.

 

[CNOTES]

POWER RANKINGS


Rank Team Betting Notes (2014-15 Record) Last year (reg, season)


1 Golden State Warriors (67-15 SU, 46-34-2 ATS) 1


2 San Antonio Spurs (55-27 SU, 43-38-1 ATS) 3


3 Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29 SU, 39-43 ATS) 4


4 Oklahoma City Thunder (45-37 SU, 41-41 ATS) 14


5 Houston Rockets (56-26 SU, 47-35 ATS) 5


6 Los Angeles Clippers (56-26 SU, 39-43 ATS) 7


7 Memphis Grizzlies (55-27 SU, 40-41-1 ATS) 6


8 Miami Heat (37-45 SU, 34-45-3 ATS) 21


9 Chicago Bulls (50-32 SU, 39-43 ATS) 9


10 New Orleans Pelicans (45-37 SU, 47-35 ATS) 12


11 Washington Wizards (46-36, 34-46-2 ATS) 11


12 Atlanta Hawks (60-22 SU, 51-31 ATS) 2


13 Toronto Raptors (49-33 SU, 38-43-1 ATS) 13


14 Utah Jazz (38-44 SU, 44-35-3 ATS) 18


15 Milwaukee Bucks (41-41 SU, 45-35-2 ATS) 15


16 Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 34-45-3 ATS) 10


17 Detroit Pistons (32-50 SU, 40-42 ATS) 23


18 Sacramento Kings (29-53 SU, 31-48-3 ATS) 25


19 Phoenix Suns (39-43 SU, 41-40-1 ATS) 16


20 Orlando Magic (25-57 SU, 42-39-1 ATS) 26


21 Indiana Pacers (38-44 SU, 45-35-2 ATS) 20


22 Los Angeles Lakers (21-61 SU, 38-43-1 ATS) 28


23 Boston Celtics (40-42 SU, 47-34-1 ATS) 17


24 New York Knicks (17-65 SU, 32-48-2 ATS) 30


25 Brooklyn Nets (38-44 SU, 39-41-2 ATS) 19


26 Portland Trail Blazers (51-31 SU, 38-43-1 ATS) 8


27 Minnesota Timberwolves (16-66 SU, 34-47-1 ATS) 27


28 Charlotte Hornets (33-49 SU, 40-39-3 ATS) 22


29 Denver Nuggets (30-52 SU, 37-43-2 ATS) 24


30 Philadelphia 76ers (18-64 SU, 40-39-1 ATS) 29




Updated Sunday, Oct. 25, 3:20 AM ET

 

[CNOTES]

Warriors coach Steve Kerr to miss opener
October 24, 2015


OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr will miss the season opener as he continues to recover from back surgery.


General manager Bob Myers told reporters Saturday that interim coach Luke Walton will coach the team for the season opener against New Orleans on Tuesday night in Oakland. Kerr will be on hand for the banner-raising ceremony but is not ready to take back the coaching duties.


Kerr has been sidelined since the opening week of training camp because of complications from offseason back surgery. The Warriors do not know when he will be healthy enough to return.


The Warriors won the NBA title last season in Kerr's first season as coach.


-------------------------


Hawks waive Barron, Jones to set roster
October 24, 2015


ATLANTA (AP) The Atlanta Hawks got down to their 15-man roster for the regular season by waiving center Earl Barron and forward DeQuan Jones.


The moves were announced Saturday by coach Mike Budenholzer.


Swingman Lamar Patterson, a 2014 second-round pick who played last season in Turkey, claimed the final roster spot.


---


The regular-season roster for the Atlanta Hawks, who open against the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday night.


Guards (7) - Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, Kent Bazemore, Dennis Schroder, Tim Hardaway Jr., Shelvin Mack, Justin Holiday


Forwards (5) - Paul Millsap, Thabo Sefolosha, Mike Muscala, Mike Scott, Lamar Patterson


Centers (3) - Al Horford, Tiago Splitter, Walter ''Edy'' Tavares


----------------------------


Mavs waive Dalembert, three others
October 24, 2015


DALLAS (AP) The Mavericks have waived center Samuel Dalembert and three others as they trim their roster to get ready for the regular season.


The 34-year-old Dalembert spent the 2013-14 season with the Mavericks, who decided to leave him out of the mix as a backup to Zaza Pachulia. Dallas traded for Pachulia after DeAndre Jordan changed his mind in free agency and stayed with the Los Angeles Clippers.


Dalembert has career averages of 7.7 points and 7.8 rebounds in 13 seasons.


The Mavericks also waived Brandon Ashley, Jamil Wilson and Tu Holloway on Saturday, putting their roster one above the maximum of 15. Holloway signed with Dallas two days earlier and didn't appear in the preseason.


Dallas opens the season Wednesday at Phoenix.


-------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

LeBron: 'I'm ready to go' for opener
October 26, 2015


INDEPENDENCE, Ohio (AP) LeBron James says his back feels good and he will be active for the Cavaliers' season opener on Tuesday in Chicago.


James had been limited in practice since receiving an anti-inflammatory injection in his back on Oct. 13. He made it through a complete practice Sunday, taking contact for the first time since getting the shot. The four-time MVP said the big test would be how his body responded after the workout.


Following Monday's practice, James said he's ''ready to go.'' The 30-year-old shook his head and said, ''nope'' when asked if there was any doubt he would be available when the Cavaliers open the season.


Coach David Blatt said the Cavs will be ''cautious and careful'' with the minutes they play James, who missed a career-high 13 games last season with injuries and has played nearly 44,000 minutes as a pro.

 

[CNOTES]

Bulls open Hoiberg era with Rose at PG
October 26, 2015


CHICAGO (AP) The Chicago Bulls will open a new era under coach Fred Hoiberg with Derrick Rose in the lineup.


The former MVP point guard is set to start without any minute restrictions when the Bulls meet LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in Tuesday's opener.


Hoiberg says the Bulls will still be careful with Rose's playing time given that he missed most of the preseason with an injury he suffered on the first day of practice.


Rose had surgery to repair a broken left orbital and missed the first seven preseason games. But he also showed that familiar explosiveness in his lone exhibition against Dallas on Friday.


Rose, who has been wearing a protective mask, still has some blurred vision and swelling beneath his left eye.

 

[CNOTES]

Jazz put faith in Trey Burke, Raul Neto
October 26, 2015


SALT LAKE CITY (AP) The loss of Dante Exum to injury sent ripples throughout the Jazz lineup that will be felt on both sides of the ball.


The opportunities for Trey Burke and Raul Neto, the only pure point guards left on the roster, have grown exponentially.


Burke gets his starting job back and has a chance to wash away the unpleasantness of the 2014-15 season. His shooting percentage plummeted as the top scoring threat off the bench. Part was shot selection, part was Burke being left with the ball in his hands late in the shot clock.


Going into his third year, many expect the ninth player taken in the 2013 draft to come into his own soon.


''It's just a matter of getting better every day,'' said Burke, who acknowledged there's more responsibility with the roster as is. ''By nature I'm a scorer, but I think the game's opening up so much for me that I'm realizing I can get others involved and just let the game come to me.


''I'm going to get shots throughout the game. Guys finding me, me coming off the screen, transition. But I think the more I'm able to get in the paint, find other guys for open shots, the easier it makes my job.''


Neto's minutes as the third guard were likely to be limited at best beforehand. No Exum and no fourth point guard shows the trust the Brazilian rookie has gained in a short time.


Neto said he's been prepared for whatever role and however many minutes are sent his way. He brings a different dynamic than Burke as a pass-first point guard who needs to continue to work on his jump shot.


Coach Quin Snyder even started Neto in the final preseason game Thursday.


''The thing I like is they play defense,'' Snyder said. ''From that position, if we defend, they're going to improve. Trey's playing the position different than he played it his first year, that's because our team is different. He's being asked to do certain things as our team evolves. We feel like both those guys are making progress. And we've got some other guys that handle the ball. They're obviously not point guards, but we can figure it out.''


Those other guys are the wings.


Snyder has experimented with a variety of lineups during preseason - most notably rotations without a point guard on the floor. That leaves Gordon Hayward, Alec Burks and Rodney Hood initiating a lot of offense. Hayward has done plenty of that in the past and Hood showed that ability late last season. Burks has always been a playmaker with the ball in his hands.


The Golden State Warriors garnered a lot of attention last season with positionless-type rotations en route to a NBA championship.


The Jazz aren't as extreme, but they have the capability to roll out bigger lineups with Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors on the floor without a point guard. They can also go small with Favors at the five and Hayward at the four.


Rookie Trey Lyles is a long 6-foot-10 who can play multiple positions and general manager Dennis Lindsey added two more 7-footers in Jeff Withey and Tibor Pleiss during the offseason.


''Wherever he wants to play me I'll be comfortable,'' Hayward said. ''(I'm) going to be asked to do a lot of things this year. We are a really versatile team and we've got a lot of guys who can handle the basketball and initiate the offense and stretch the floor. We can go two bigs and put a huge lineup out there if we wanted to.''


All of these options weren't precipitated by Exum's injury, but that forces Snyder's hand somewhat to be more creative more often. The Jazz were the No. 1 defensive team in the league after the All-Star break largely due to the fact that Exum's length was a unique defensive tool. Burke and Neto, regardless of effort, can't mimic that physical presence.


That will also determine rotations at times.


''It's going to depend on who we play,'' Snyder said ''Are we playing a really big point guard that's a tough matchup for Trey or Raul? On that night, maybe (three wings) makes more of an impact on defense. You don't have a pure point guard kind of running your team in certain situations that is used to being in that positon. It cuts a lot of ways.''

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday's Top Action
October 26, 2015




CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (0-0) at CHICAGO BULLS (0-0)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Bulls -3, Total 198.5


The NBA season tips off Tuesday night with an Eastern Conference showdown between the Cavaliers and Bulls.


Cleveland is coming off a conference title season thanks in large part to the return of LeBron James after a four-year hiatus in Miami. The Cavs won 67 games (53 in regular season), but were just 49-53 ATS including playoffs. The team was also a losing wager on the road (24-27 ATS), but was 16-10 ATS (62%) with at least two days' rest.


Chicago also had a strong season at 56-38 SU (47-47 ATS) including playoffs, and was also a profitable wager with at least a couple days off, going 13-9 ATS (59%) in that scenario. But the team's season ended with three straight losses in the second round of the postseason to this same Cleveland team, including 94-73 blowout in Game 6. Before those three wins, these clubs had split their previous 12 meetings 6-6 SU, including 7-5 ATS in favor of Chicago.


Although the Cavaliers are 4-1 SU in their past five visits to United Center, the Bulls are 10-3 SU in their past 13 home games.


Two major injuries for Cleveland are PG Kyrie Irving, who remains out indefinitely with a knee injury, and SG Iman Shumpert (wrist), who will be out until January. SF LeBron James, sat out the preseason with a bad back, but he'll be ready to go when the regular season begins. For Chicago, oft-injured star PG Derrick Rose is questionable for this game with an eye injury while SF Mike Dunleavy (back) is out until December.


Cleveland's offense was very effective last season with 103.1 PPG (8th in NBA) on 45.8% FG (8th in league) and 36.7% threes (5th in NBA). The team hoisted the league's second-most tries from behind the arc (27.5 per game) and attempted the second-fewest shots inside the three-point line (54.7 per game).


The defensive numbers weren't anything special with 98.7 PPG allowed (13th in league) on 45.6% FG (20th in NBA), but the Cavs defended the three-point shot pretty well (34.3%, 9th in league) and opponents attempted the fewest free throws in the league (19.9 per game).


SF LeBron James has averaged 28.4 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 6.0 APG in 44 career meetings with the Bulls, and dropped 26.2 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 8.8 APG, 1.7 SPG and 1.7 BPG in the playoff series win versus Chicago. SG J.R. Smith averaged 12.8 PPG on 50% FG and 44% threes in that series, and will likely take on a heavy scoring load Tuesday with PG Kyrie Irving questionable and SG Iman Shumpert out.


The key to this team getting back to the NBA Finals could be PF Kevin Love, who has been slowed by a shoulder injury recently. Love nearly averaged a double-double (16.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG) for a sixth straight season in his first stint with Cleveland.


The team also needs C Timofey Mozgov to keep improving after a strong first initial campaign with the Cavs where he contributed 9.7 PPG and 7.3 APG in 25.3 minutes per game.


Chicago's offense did some nice things last season with 100.8 PPG (15th in NBA), 35.3% three-point FG (10th in league), 78.3% FT (3rd in NBA) and 45.7 total RPG (3rd in league). However, the Bulls made only 44.2% FG overall (22nd in NBA) and 47.4% FG on two-point tries (23rd in league), and were average in both assists (21.7 APG, 14th in NBA) and turnovers (14.0 TOPG, 12th in league).


Defensively, this team was difficult to score on with its 43.5% FG defense (4th in NBA) and 33.5% threes (3rd in league), but still gave up more points than it would have liked (97.8 PPG, 9th in league).


A big reason for the opponents low shooting percentage was the Bulls' hefty 5.8 blocks per game (5th in NBA) but they averaged the third-fewest steals in the league (6.3 SPG).


Three players averaged at last 17 points last season in SG Jimmy Butler (20.0 PPG), C Pau Gasol (18.5 PPG) and PG Derrick Rose (17.7 PPG). But the trio wasn't as effective in the playoff series loss to Cleveland with Rose's 21.7 PPG coming on 38.5% FG and Butler's 21.0 PPG with only 40.7% FG. Gasol played just four games in that series and posted a pedestrian 11.5 PPG and 5.8 RPG.


But head coach Fred Hoiberg is excited about the improvement of PF Nikola Mirotic (10.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG), who is expected to be in the starting lineup on Tuesday. But Mirotic will need to shoot much better than his 30.6% FG clip he produced for the Bulls last postseason.


NEW ORLEANS PELICANS (0-0) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (0-0)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -9.5, Total 215.5


The NBA champion Warriors begin defense of their title on Thursday night when they open the season as heavy favorites versus superstar Anthony Davis and the Pelicans.


New Orleans is coming off a strong 45-37 season where it earned the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. Meanwhile, Golden State had a banner year with a franchise record 67 regular-season wins and its first NBA Championship since 1975.


These teams met in the first round of last year's playoffs with the Warriors winning all four games by relatively close margins of 7, 10, 4 and 11 points, which made the Pelicans 3-1 ATS in the series. Although New Orleans won the 2014-15 regular season finale between the two (103-100 at home), that was the only game that Golden State has lost in this head-to-head matchup in the past three seasons where it is a dominant 14-1 SU (8-6-1 ATS).


The last time New Orleans left Oakland with a win was on April 24, 2012, which is a span of seven straight Golden State victories (4-3 ATS). But the Pelicans were a strong road wager last season at 23-19-1 ATS (55%), including 17-11 ATS (61%) as a road underdog. However, the Warriors were 31-19-2 ATS (62%) at Oracle Arena where they lost just four times outright in 52 games.


Both teams have some injury concerns for Tuesday's season opener, especially New Orleans, which will be without SF Tyreke Evans (knee), SF Quincy Pondexter (knee) and PG Norris Cole (ankle) for at least two more weeks. Three other Pelicans players are questionable for the game in C Omer Asik (calf), SF Luke Babbitt (hamstring) and C Alexis Ajinca (hamstring).


Golden State is in much better shape, but C Andrew Bogut (broken nose) could be limited and rookie PF Kevon Looney could miss half the season after undergoing hip surgery in August.


New Orleans was able to earn its first playoff berth in four seasons with an efficient offense that shot 45.7% FG (10th in NBA) and 37.0% threes (4th in league), but averaged only 99.4 PPG, which ranked 16th out of 30 teams. The club didn't turn the ball over much with 13.3 TOPG (6th in NBA) while dishing out 22.0 APG (11th in league). The defense was top-notch as well, limiting teams to 98.6 PPG (11th in NBA) and 33.5% threes (2nd in league). But despite an NBA-leading 6.2 blocks per game, opponents still shot 49.4% from inside the arc (21st in NBA) and 45.6% FG overall (23rd in league).


C Anthony Davis made 1st Team All-NBA last season with 24.4 PPG (4th in NBA) on 53.5% FG (7th in league) with 10.2 RPG (8th in NBA) and a league-leading 2.9 BPG. The Warriors had no answer for Davis in the 2015 postseason as he averaged 31.5 PPG (54% FG), 11.0 RPG and 3.0 BPG in the four defeats.


SF Dante Cunningham (5.2 PPG 3.9 RPG in 25.0 MPG) is expected to start for injured SF Tyreke Evans (16.6 PPG, 6.6 APG, 5.3 RPG), but Cunningham hasn't developed his offensive game enough to be counted on for double-digit points.


Fortunately the Pelicans have a strong offensive backcourt of PG Jrue Holiday (14.8 PPG, 6.9 APG, 1.6 SPG) and SG Eric Gordon (13.4 PPG, 45% threes, 3.8 APG) to help cover for Evans' absence.


Third-string C Kendrick Perkins might be starting down low if C Omer Asik (7.3 PPG, 52% FG, 9.8 RPG) and C Alexis Ajinca (6.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG) can't play due to injuries. The 35-year-old Perkins averaged a pedestrian 3.6 PPG and 4.7 RPG in 16.9 MPG for Oklahoma City and Cleveland last season.


Golden State's offense was potent last season with 110.0 PPG on 47.8% FG and 39.8% threes, all of which led the NBA. The Warriors also posted a league-best 27.4 APG while grabbing 44.7 RPG (6th in NBA) and shooting 76.8% FT (9th in league). This was also a strong defensive team that led the NBA in shooting defense (42.8% FG) and finished fifth in defending the three (33.7%). They forced 16.2 turnovers per game (5th in league) which kept opponents to a middling 99.9 PPG (15th in NBA) which was pretty good considering Golden State played the fastest pace of any team in the league.


PG Stephen Curry took home his first regular-season MVP Award with 23.8 PPG (6th in NBA) on blistering shooting clips of 49% FG and 44.3% threes (4th in league) while adding 7.7 APG (6th in NBA). Curry also had a monster 2015 postseason series versus New Orleans when he averaged 33.8 PPG (42% threes), 7.3 APG, 5.3 RPG and 1.3 SPG. His "Splash Brothers" partner SG Klay Thompson also shot lights-out that series at 49% FG and 49% threes, averaging 25.0 PPG and 3.3 RPG in the sweep. Thompson made his first All-Star appearance and finished the season with 21.7 PPG (9th in NBA) on 46% FG and 43.9% threes (5th in league).


Versatile PF Draymond Green did everything against the Pelicans in last year's playoffs with 15.8 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 6.3 APG, 2.5 SPG and 1.3 BPG.


He made the 1st Team All-NBA Defensive Team during a regular season where he averaged 1.6 SPG and 1.3 BPG to go along with 11.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG and 3.7 APG. SF Harrison Barnes (10.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG) was also a key piece to this championship team with 10.6 PPG during the postseason, and SG Andre Iguodala (7.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.0 APG) was named NBA Finals MVP last season when he averaged 16.3 PPG on 52% FG and 40% threes, with 5.8 RPG and 4.0 APG in the six games versus Cleveland.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA Atlantic Division Toronto's to lose. And that could be good for bettors


The NBA’s Atlantic Division is still the weakest in the league, led by the Raptors. It’s once again Toronto’s division to lose, and that could open up value in the teams behind the Dinos. Covers Expert Matt Fargo breaks down the best ways to bet the Atlantic Division this upcoming NBA season:


Toronto Raptors (2014-15: 49-33 SU, 37-44-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: -175
Season wins total: 45.5

Why bet the Raptors: The Raptors have won the Atlantic Division the last two years and no other team within the division has made significant moves to overtake them. Toronto lacks a superstar but the core players on this team have been together for a number of years, so continuity will once again be there from the start. The offense is quietly one of the best in the NBA as last season, the Raptors finished third with 108.1 points per 100 possessions, behind only the Warriors and Clippers. The addition of DeMarre Carroll and Cory Joseph can only help.

Why not to bet the Raptors: While bringing in Carroll and Joseph were nice moves, spending $90 on the two may have been overzealous and the Raptors could have made a bigger splash elsewhere. The Knicks and 76ers could be improved this season, more so for the former, but Toronto can't bank on going 7-1 against them again this season. So any extra losses there could bring the Celtics more into the mix. While the offense is solid, the defense remains a weakness. Not great odds where an injury or two could derail the season.

Season win total pick: Over 45.5 Wins

Boston Celtics (2014-15: 40-42 SU, 49-32-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +175
Season wins total: 42.5

Why bet the Celtics: After winning just 25 games in 2013-14, the Celtics won 40 games last season so head coach Brad Stevens is doing something right. All the pieces remain and the addition of forwards Amir Johnson and David Lee will bring in some much needed veteran leadership. The Celtics have the combination of athleticism and speed which leads to an effective up-tempo system. While it may not seem like a big deal, holding training camp in Spain and Italy is an enormous benefit to build team chemistry right from the start.

Why Not To Bet The Celtics: While Boston improved 15 games from the previous season to last season, it still finished nine games behind Toronto in the Atlantic Division. It is hard to find any significant improvements here, or regressions from Toronto, to make up that many games plus the division as a whole is better. The Celtics lack that true superstar that can take over games and lead them to a big move up the ladder. While the second-half surge last season carried Boston into the playoffs, missing the postseason is a big possibility this season.

Season win total pick: Under 42.5 Wins

New York Knicks (2014-15: 17-65 SU, 33-46-3 ATS)

Odds to win division: +1,200
Season wins total: 31.5

Why bet the Knicks: Despite a miserable season last year, let's not forget that the Knicks won the Atlantic Division in 2012-13. Granted, it is a different roster now but the main cog, Carmelo Anthony, is still here and he’s capable of putting this team on his back. New York had its first Top-5 draft pick since 1986 and selected Kristaps Porzingis. It may be considered a risky pick, but the upside is enormous. They didn't make a big splash in free agency but did bring in some solid talent that can make New York relevant again.

Why not to bet the Knicks: Phil Jackson was brought in to land big names and he failed to do that this summer. There were some good signings, however, they may not be enough to significantly improve this team. New York finished 29th in the league in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency, so turning that around in one season will be a challenge. Porzingis has the potential to be a huge star but it won't happen in his rookie season. New York has nowhere to go but up but will likely need a 30-plus game improvement to win the Atlantic and that just isn't happening.

Season win total pick: Over 31.5 Wins

Brooklyn Nets (2014-15: 38-44 SU, 39-41-2 ATS)

Odds to win division: +3,000
Season wins total: 28.5

Why bet the Nets: On paper, this team does not look like a division winner but stranger things have happened. The Nets built a roster two years ago to dethrone the Heat in the Eastern Conference but that never came to fruition and most of those pieces are gone. One of those pieces was Deron Williams, who left for Dallas this offseason. It might be a good thing because of his inconsistencies. While the Atlantic is improved overall, it is still considered a very weak division. So if chemistry can be found and sustained, Brooklyn could be a major surprise.

Why not to bet the Nets: The Nets have the biggest negative variance in the division from actual wins last season to projected wins this season (-9.5) and there’s a reason for that. They’re building a roster around Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson, the latter probably won’t be around past the trade deadline. So the lack of above-average talent is evident. Entering the 2015-16 season, the Nets will have just three players on their roster who are 30 or older which is good for the future but not great at this point.

Season win total pick: Under 28.5 Wins

Philadelphia 76ers (2014-15: 18-64 SU, 40-40-2 ATS)

Odds to win division: +10,000
Season wins total: 21.5

Why bet the 76ers: Jahlil Okafor. While he’s just a rookie, the third overall pick is NBA ready and will be a beast down in the low post. Nerlens Noel finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting, so the duo gives Philadelphia a very strong frontcourt. While there are many unknowns on the roster, like all of the teams in the Atlantic, because of the weakness of the division, crazy things can happen. Winning it is very unlikely, but there’s a ton of value in the 76ers’ odds so you can put down a little with the potential of a big hit.

Why not to bet the 76ers: Chances are there will be another tank job in Philadelphia to secure another lottery pick, so betting on the 76ers to win the division could be throwing money away. The 76ers have won 37 games over the last two years combined and in order to win the Atlantic Division, they will have to do more than double that. With this young and inexperienced roster, chances of that are slim to none. Philadelphia has not won the Atlantic since 2000-01 when Allen Iverson and Dikembe Mutombo led the way under head coach Larry Brown. Yes, it's been that long.

Season win total pick: Over 21.5 Wins

 

[CNOTES]

Cavs are kings of NBA Central, but is there any value betting them?


The Cleveland Cavaliers will be huge favorites in the Central Division as long as LeBron James is on the roster. Cleveland has bigger and better plans for 2015-16, and that could open the door for value playing against the Eastern Conference’s best team – especially inside the Central.


Matt Fargo breaks down the best ways to wager on the NBA Central Division this season.


Cleveland Cavaliers (2014-15: 53-29 SU, 39-43-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: -500
Season wins total: 56.5

Why bet the Cavaliers: The Cavaliers are the best team in the Eastern Conference and it isn't even close. They have the best player in the game and a healthy roster that is now in its second year together. There is not a lot of value here but the only thing standing in the way from another Central Division title is injuries or a massive season from the Bulls.

Why not to bet the Cavaliers: While this is most likely a winning bet, tying up funds for over half a year on a 1-5 favorite is not going to excite too many people. Plus, it is no guarantee to win because anything can happen if certain injuries take place. James is a monster but we saw in the NBA Finals last season that he can’t do it on his own. There is better value, much better, elsewhere.

Season win total pick: Under 56.5 Wins

Chicago Bulls (2014-15: 50-32 SU, 39-43-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +450
Season wins total: 49.5

Why bet the Bulls: The Bulls are clearly the second best team in this division and the gap between them and the other teams below is a wide one. They have the second biggest odds for a second place team so the number is filled with value. But can Chicago catch Cleveland? A healthy Derrick Rose is a must and the Bulls could get a spark from new head coach Fred Hoiberg.

Why not to bet the Bulls: Rose has not played a full season since 2010-11 when he was the league MVP and he’s already missed time in the preseason because of a fractured left orbital bone. While the gap is big between the teams below them, there is a significant gap between them and Cleveland as the win total is seven games. Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol are not getting any younger.

Season win total pick: Under 49.5 Wins

Milwaukee Bucks (2014-15: 41-41 SU, 46-35-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +2000
Season wins total: 43.5

Why bet the Bucks: The Bucks were a pleasant surprise last season as they improved by 26 games from 2013-14 and made the playoffs as the No. 6 seed. While we won't see a similar improvement, Milwaukee has the ability to be better once again. The return of Jabari Parker from injury and the addition of Greg Monroe will improve the offense considerably. The Bucks had the second best defense in the entire NBA last year.

Why not to bet the Bucks: It can be argued that the Bucks overachieved last season and they have nowhere to go but down. Parker has great potential but the knee injury could hinder him early in the season. This is one of the youngest teams in the NBA with their six best players ranging between 20 and 25 years old, so they lack the veteran leadership that is needed to get them over the top.

Season win total pick: Over 43.5 Wins

Indiana Pacers (2014-15: 38-44 SU, 42-37-3 ATS)

Odds to win division: +2000
Season wins total: 42.5

Why bet the Pacers: Give the Pacers a lot of credit for last season. Despite the loss of their best player in Paul George, they fought all the way to the end of the season and missed the playoffs by virtue of a tiebreaker. Now, George is back as healthy as ever and the additions of Monta Ellis and Myles Turner gives Indiana a very positive outlook going into the new season.

Why not to bet the Pacers: Getting Ellis and Turner is positive but the departures of Roy Hibbert and David West means this team is basically brand new and while extremely talented, the early season chemistry could be a problem. Indiana could fall back in the standings early with not enough time to recover when they come together as a team. The playoffs are within reach but the division likely not.

Season win total pick: Over 42.5 Wins

Detroit Pistons (2014-15: 32-50 SU, 42-40-0 ATS)


Odds to win division: +10,000
Season wins total: 33.5

Why bet the Pistons: While Milwaukee had the biggest turnaround last season, Detroit could have the biggest this season. The Pistons won 32 games last season and that was after Brandon Jennings ruptured his Achilles in late January. He won't be back until December but the Pistons have put together a strong roster with Ersan Ilyasova and Marcus Morris flanking star Andre Drummond and possessing a strong backcourt until Jennings returns.

Why not to bet the Pistons: Detroit has not won more than 32 games in six straight seasons, averaging 28.7 wins over that stretch. There is probably nowhere to go but up but how far can they go? Milwaukee improved by 26 games and still finished 12 games behind Cleveland. Detroit will need a similar turnaround surpassing 25 games and while it will better its 32 wins, that big of a jump is not going to happen.

Season win total pick: Over 33.5 Wins

 

[CNOTES]

Don't expect same ATS dominance from Hawks in Southeast


The Atlanta Hawks stunned the NBA with their dominance out of the Southeast Division last season but have their work cut out for them in what could be one of the most competitive groups in the NBA. Covers Expert Matt Fargo breaks down the best ways to bet the NBA’s Southeast Division:


Atlanta Hawks (2014-15: 60-22 SU, 50-30-2 ATS)

Odds to win division: +125
Season wins total: 49.5

Why bet the Hawks: The Hawks are coming off their best season in the history of the franchise and backers won a ton of money as their 50 ATS wins were the most in the NBA. Not much has changed on the roster with the exception of losing DeMarre Carroll, so the Hawks will again contend in the Southeast and go after their ninth straight playoff appearance.

Why no to bet the Hawks: Atlanta overachieved last season and it was able to win so many tickets because proper adjustments weren't made. The Hawks will not sneak up on anyone this season after finishing with the best record in the Eastern Conference. Expect a big decline in all aspects.

Season win total pick: Under 49.5 Wins

Washington Wizards (2014-15: 46-36 SU, 33-46-3 ATS)

Odds to win division: +220
Season wins total: 45.5

Why bet the Wizards: Unlike the Hawks, Washington had another underachieving season, failing to reach 50 wins for a 35th consecutive year. With expectations high, they failed miserably at the betting window but that should only help them this season. The loss of Paul Pierce hurts but John Wall is one of the best point guards in the NBA.

Why not to bet the Wizards: This team is capable of underachieving again since that has been the norm for a while. Injuries have played a part in that as the depth is once again thin so if anyone goes down for a significant amount of time, Washington will not be cashing many tickets.

Season win total pick: Over 45.5 Wins

Miami Heat (2014-15: 37-45 SU, 35-43-4 ATS)

Odds to win division: +220
Season wins total: 45.5

Why bet the Heat: The absence of LeBron James showed as Miami won 17 fewer games but failed to cover just two fewer games. The Heat were hit with injuries last season, namely Chris Bosh, who missed a lot of time with blood clots in his lungs. Now fully healthy and with Goran Dragic here for a full season, Miami could surprise.

Why not to bet the Heat: This team isn't getting any younger and even though James is gone, this is still a public team. Because of that, lines are adjusted and the Heat have suffered two straight losing seasons against the number. Because the projected win total is significantly higher, larger lines may once again be the norm.

Season win total pick: Over 45.5 Wins

Charlotte Hornets (2014-15: 33-49 SU, 39-41-2 ATS)

Odds to win division: +4000
Season wins total: 32.5

Why bet the Hornets: Charlotte has been all over the place the last three years, winning 21, 43 and 33 games and the covering percentage has gone on a similar path. The projected win total remains about the same and with new additions and some player departures, there are questions here but that could lead to some early season value.

Why not to bet the Hornets: When teams go through significant roster changes, it may take a while for the chemistry to show up so it may be smart to avoid the Hornets until we see how they are progressing. The loss of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a killer as he is expected to be out until April with a shoulder injury.

Season win total pick: Over 32.5 Wins

Orlando Magic (2014-15: 25-57 SU, 41-40-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +4000
Season wins total: 32.5

Why bet the Magic: Despite just 25 wins last season, the Magic finished above .500 at the betting window and has been so bad for so long, expectations will be low once again which can lead to many good betting opportunities. The reason is that Orlando has the talent in place to make significant improvements and actually make a playoff run.

Why not to bet the Magic: While talent is there, this is a young team without much veteran leadership so any early problems could lead to massive bad runs. Orlando had the worst ATS record in the Eastern Conference two years ago and that was with just two less outright wins than last season. A bad start early in the season could make betting tough.

Season win total pick: Over 32.5 Wins

 

[CNOTES]

Spurs might have their hands full in loaded NBA Southwest Division


The San Antonio Spurs, now featuring LaMarcus Aldridge, are the faves to win one of the deepest division in the entire league. Can they fend off competition from the likes of Memphis, Houston and New Orleans?


Steve Merril breaks down the best ways to bet the NBA’s Southwest Division:


Dallas Mavericks (2014-15: 50-32 SU, 36-44-2 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: +5000
Season Win Total: 38.5


Why Bet The Mavericks: Dallas has assembled a deep and talented roaster that has a lot of experience for the 2015 season. The Mavericks are a veteran-laden team, so they know how to navigate through the grind of a NBA season. The team should gel quickly as there are no big ego players on the roster.


Why Not To Bet The Mavericks: Because of their team makeup, the obvious concern for the Mavericks is staying healthy. Older players tend to breakdown more often, and Dallas’ longest tenured player, Dirk Nowitzki, seems to be tailing off. Interior defense will also be an issue this season, so Dallas will be at a disadvantage against young, fast paced teams and teams that have dominant paint players.


Season Win Total Pick: Under 38.5 Wins




Houston Rockets (2014-15: 56-26 SU, 48-34 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: +300
Season Win Total: 54.5


Why Bet The Rockets: Houston has an explosive offense that can outscore their opponent on any given night. The offense will play even faster this season with the acquisition of speedy point guard Ty Lawson. Houston also has a very good three-point shooting team, so defenses will be hard-pressed to slow this offense down. The Rockets have as deep and talented roster as any team in the NBA.


Why Not To Bet The Rockets: The biggest concern for Houston once again this season is injuries. Dwight Howard is almost certain to miss time with some kind of lingering injury, and his absence makes the Rockets vulnerable around the rim. Houston ranked 29th in free throw shooting (70.1%) last season, and that’s an issue for the Rockets late in games.


Season Win Total Pick: Over 54.5 Wins




Memphis Grizzlies (2014-15: 55-27 SU, 40-40-2 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: +700
Season Win Total: 50.5


Why Bet The Grizzlies: Memphis is one of the best frontcourt teams in the NBA. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are a formidable duo inside the paint, and added depth off the bench was an outstanding move by management. The Grizzlies’ core has been together for awhile, and with one of the best defenses in the NBA, Memphis is a tough out in each and every game.


Why Not To Bet The Grizzlies: Offense doesn’t come easy for Memphis. Scoring the basketball consistently has held the Grizzlies back from getting to the next level. The Grizzlies do not hit enough three pointers, and that puts too much pressure on their defense. Memphis certainly has the talent and defense to win, but a lack of offense is their biggest culprit.


Season Win Total Pick: Over 50.5 Wins




New Orleans Pelicans (2014-15: 45-37 SU, 45-37 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: +800
Season Win Total: 47.5


Why Bet The Pelicans: Anthony Davis is the best young two-way player in the NBA. Davis is a difference maker on both ends of the court, and as long as he’s playing, New Orleans has a chance to win. New head coach Alvin Gentry will speed up the tempo and turn the Pelicans into a very good offensive team this season, especially since they have terrific inside-out scoring balance.


Why Not To Bet The Pelicans: New Orleans must avoid the injury bug, but that has been a major issue in the preseason so far. Davis can’t stay healthy; he has missed 14 games or more every year. The roster is full of injury prone players, and that is going to hurt their depth throughout an 82-game schedule.


Season Win Total Pick: Under 47.5 Wins




San Antonio Spurs (2014-15: 55-27 SU, 41-39-2 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: -160
Season Win Total: 58.5


Why Bet The Spurs: San Antonio is simply one of the best teams in the NBA. The Spurs are fantastic on both ends of the court because they have an incredible front court that was bolstered with the acquisition of LaMarcus Aldridge. Their team depth is the best in the league, and their on-court chemistry is second to none.


Why Not To Bet The Spurs: The Spurs have aging veterans at two of the most important positions on the court; Tony Parker at point guard and Tim Duncan at center. Health is also a major concern for a veteran team, so the Spurs will have to hope to avoid the injury bug.


Season Win Total Pick: Over 58.5 Wins

 

[CNOTES]

It's the Thunder followed by everybody else in the NBA Northwest Division


With the Nuggets, Timberwolves and Trail Blazers in rebuild mode and the Jazz not quite ready to be a player in the group, the NBA's Northwest Division is all about the Oklahoma City Thunder. Covers Expert Steve Merril breaks down the best ways to bet the Northwest Division this upcoming NBA season.


Denver Nuggets (2014-15: 30-52 SU, 36-43-3 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: +10000
Season Win Total: 26.5


Why Bet The Nuggets: Denver has made some significant changes, and because of those moves, expectations are extremely low this season. However, the Nuggets should have improved chemistry on and off the court with new head coach Mike Malone in charge. His presence alone will also make the Nuggets’ defense significantly better.


Why Not To Bet The Nuggets: Point guard Ty Lawson is gone after multiple off the court issues. Lawson was Denver’s offensive catalyst, and without many pure scorers on the roster, points will be hard to come by for the Nuggets. Denver will be a mishmash unit that lacks true NBA starting talent in 2015.


Season Win Total Pick: Under 26.5 Wins


Minnesota Timberwolves (2014-15: 16-66 SU, 35-46-1 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: +10000
Season Win Total: 25.5


Why Bet The Timberwolves: Minnesota only won 16 games last season; the fewest in the NBA. There is nowhere to go but up for the Timberwolves in 2015. Minnesota is loaded with young talent, including Andrew Wiggins, Ricky Rubio, Zach LaVine, and No. 1 pick Karl-Anthony Towns. The Timberwolves have all the pieces to succeed in 2015 provided the young talent meshes together early on.


Why Not To Bet The Timberwolves: The team has solid building blocks in place, but they are still years away from competing for a playoff spot. Youth doesn’t win often in the NBA, and since Minnesota is one of the youngest teams in the league, they are still in building mode. Staying injury-free will also be paramount; Rubio and Nikola Pekovic have missed close to 40 percent of their games since coming into the league.


Season Win Total Pick: Over 25.5 Wins


Oklahoma City Thunder (2014-15: 45-37 SU, 39-41-2 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: -200
Season Win Total: 57.5


Why Bet The Thunder: Oklahoma City slogged their way through an unfortunate 2014 season. The Thunder had to play without Kevin Durant for an extended period of time after he got injured. Russell Westbrook carried the Thunder on his shoulders, but with Durant back on the court, Oklahoma City has the most formidable 1-2 punch in the NBA. As long as the two remain healthy, Oklahoma City is a legitimate title contender in 2015.


Why Not To Bet The Thunder: The team must stay healthy, but that has been a problem the past couple of years. Durant and Westbrook have missed 107 regular season games combined the last two seasons. Oklahoma City also has a rookie head coach in Billy Donovan who left Florida to take this job. The pressure is on to win now, but if injuries repeat, the Thunder may underachieve once again in 2015.


Season Win Total Pick: Over 57.5 Wins


Portland Trail Blazers (2014-15: 51-31 SU, 40-41-1 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: +10000
Season Win Total: 26.5


Why Bet The Trail Blazers: Portland will be all Damian Lillard. He is the lone leftover from last year’s starting five and he has the ability to carry the team on his shoulders. The Trail Blazers are an extremely young team, but those guys are finally getting their chance to prove themselves. Portland will bring effort in every game and because of that, the Trail Blazers could be dangerous if their opponents overlook them.


Why Not To Bet The Trail Blazers: Portland is a shell of the team that won 51 games last season. And that’s why their season wins total has been virtually cut in half for 2015. With four of their five starters from last season gone, the Trail Blazers are starting from scratch. Portland is an unknown commodity coming into this season.


Season Win Total Pick: Under 26.5 Wins


Utah Jazz (2014-15: 38-44 SU, 44-35-3 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: +1200
Season Win Total: 40.5


Why Bet The Jazz: Utah has a tremendous frontcourt lineup that includes Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, and Rudy Gobert. Those guys were key to Utah’s outstanding defense last season that held opponents to just 94.9 points per game which ranked No. 1 in the NBA.


Why Not To Bet The Jazz: Utah’s offense could not generate points consistently last season, and overall, they only averaged 95.1 points per game. The Jazz need improved point guard play from Trey Burke, especially since they play in the Western Conference which is loaded will elite point guards. Utah has little depth as well, so Utah must avoid major injuries to improve upon last year’s 38 total wins.


Season Win Total Pick: Under 40.5 Wins

 

[CNOTES]

Warriors are clear favorites in NBA Pacific Division, but watch out for the Clippers


Much like the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Central, the 2014-15 NBA Champion Golden State Warriors are big favorites to earn the division crown this season. At +150 and a with win total of 56.5, the Los Angeles Clippers are lurking but the rest of the division leaves a little to be desired.


Steve Merril breaks down the best ways to wager on the NBA Pacific Division this season.


Golden State Warriors (2014-15: 67-15 SU, 47-34-1 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: -500
Season Win Total: 60.5


Why Bet The Warriors: Golden State returns the same team that blitzed their opponents en route to a NBA championship last season. The Warriors are still the best team coming into the 2015 campaign, and there’s no reason they can’t repeat what they did a season ago.


Why Not To Bet The Warriors: The team didn't have to deal with any issues last season, and they were basically injury-free which is not a common thing in the NBA. Those things tend to reverse themselves the following season, so the only thing that can hamper Golden State this season is injuries.


Season Win Total Pick: Over 60.5 Wins




Los Angeles Clippers (2014-15: 56-26 SU, 37-44-1 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: +150
Season Win Total: 56.5


Why Bet The Clippers: Los Angeles’ better half has a ton of talent on their roster. The Clippers got rid of the dead weight, and they brought in some experienced playoff veterans like Paul Pierce to help them get over the hump. The Clippers have one of the best trios in the NBA with Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan, and their offense will simply score the ball at will once again this season.


Why Not To Bet The Clippers: Team chemistry is a major winning ingredient in the NBA, but with so much talent on the roster, it will be difficult to keep everybody happy. Close games are also a problem for the Clippers because of their woeful team free throw shooting. Those two elements are worth keeping an eye on in 2015.


Season Win Total Pick: Over 56.5 Wins




Los Angeles Lakers (2014-15: 21-61 SU, 36-41-5 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: +20000
Season Win Total: 29.5


Why Bet The Lakers: Kobe Bryant returns, and since the Lakers have an abundance of young talent, the veteran’s game may be taken up a level. Los Angeles was so bad last season that expectations are extremely low for 2015. The Lakers will have a high-scoring offense so they may be able to out-score better opponents and steal some wins throughout the season.


Why Not To Bet The Lakers: Los Angeles has to hope Kobe Bryant stays injury free or else they will repeat 2014 all over again. The Lakers are full of youth, and head coach Byron Scott’s system isn’t geared towards the newer style of basketball. There’s a very thin margin of error for the Lakers this season, so they will likely be a difficult team to trust in 2015.


Season Win Total Pick: Under 29.5 Wins




Phoenix Suns (2014-15: 39-43 SU, 42-37-3 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: +8000
Season Win Total: 36.5


Why Bet The Suns: Phoenix has revamped their roster for 2015, and that may help their team chemistry on and off the court. The Suns won’t have as much talent on the court now, but team basketball will be much better and that will make them a tough out this season.


Why Not To Bet The Suns: The Suns have a slew of question marks coming into this season. Phoenix thrived on offense, but their space and pace style will likely be scaled way back this season as they now have a better defensive team. The second unit is a major concern, so the best thing to do is wait and see what the Suns actually look like on the court.


Season Win Total Pick: Under 36.5 Wins




Sacramento Kings (2014-15: 29-53 SU, 33-46-3 ATS)


Odds To Win Division: +10000
Season Win Total: 30.5


Why Bet The Kings: Sacramento has one of the best players in the league in DeMarcus Cousins and as long as he’s on the court, the Kings have a chance to win. Sacramento added point guard Rajon Rondo, and his presence on the court instantly makes the Kings a much better team, especially since they’ll be running George Karl’s fast-paced offensive system.


Why Not To Bet The Kings: Much of Sacramento’s dysfunction over the last couple of seasons can be directly related to ownership and the front office. The Kings have been greatly mismanaged, and unless that changes, we may see the same old Sacramento despite the improved personnel on the court.


Season Win Total Pick: Over 30.5 Wins

 

[CNOTES]

World Peace makes Lakers' roster


Forward Metta World Peace got through the first step on his comeback by earning a spot on the Los Angeles Lakers' regular-season roster on Monday.


The 35-year-old World Peace, who was formerly known as Ron Artest, has been out of the league for 19 months. The Lakers waived guard Jabari Brown instead to get down to 15 players ahead of Wednesday's regular-season opener.


Last month World Peace was signed to a nonguaranteed contract by the Lakers, the team that waived him two years ago under the salary-cap amnesty clause.


World Peace was a member of the Lakers' 2010 NBA title team, and he spent four seasons with the Lakers.


World Peace played 29 games as a member of the New York Knicks in 2013-14 before getting waived. The last time he played in an NBA game was Feb. 21, 2014.


He played in China and Italy last season, and was an assistant coach for a girls high school team in suburban Pacific Palisades.

 

[CNOTES]

Magic exercise options on Gordon, Napier, Payton


The Orlando Magic exercised their third-year team options on forward Aaron Gordon, guard Shabazz Napier and guard Elfrid Payton, while also exercising their fourth-year team option on guard Victor Oladipo.


Gordon was a first-round pick in the 2014 NBA Draft and averaged 5.2 points and 3.6 in 47 games as a rookie, including eight starts.


Napier was a first-round pick by Charlotte last year and traded to Miami, where he averaged 5.1 points and 2.5 assists in 51 games as a rookie. He was traded to Orlando for a second-round pick and cash considerations in July.


Payton played in all 82 games as a rookie, averaging 8.9 points and a team-high 6.5 assists while starting 63 games. Selected 10th overall by Philadelphia last year, he was acquired by the Magic in June 2014 for the draft rights to Dario Saric, a future first-round pick and a future second-round pick.

 

[United]

Thanks C, definitely appreciated

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack


-- Lions fired their OC and offensive line coaches, just before they headed over the pond to play the Chiefs in London Sunday. The head coach should be next.


-- Baylor QB Seth Russell (neck) will have surgery, is out for the year.


-- 5-time All-Star Torii Hunter retired; he was an excellent defensive outfielder.


-- Texans coach Bill O'Brien wanted to cut Ryan Mallett after he missed the team charter to Miami, but GM Rick Smith overruled him. Where is Hard Knocks when we really need it?


-- Purdue's best basketball recruit hasn't been cleared yet by the NCAA; he was adopted by a guy in 8th grade who is a Purdue alum. Make a decision, people; the season starts in 2.5 weeks.


-- UNLV's Chris Wood made the 76ers roster, the 10th Findlay Prep alum to make the NBA in the last five years.


**********


Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Wrapping up Week 7 in NFL......


13) Jaguars 34, Bills 31-- Jax led 27-3 with 3:00 left in half, but blew lead, throwing awful pick-6 with 5:21 left to fall behind 31-27. Bortles then drove them 84 yards in 3:07 for the win, hitting Allen Hurns for the winning TD. Hurns now has a TD in his last five games-- Jacksonville is slowly getting better- they scored defensive TDs 0:07 apart in the second quarter. Buffalo screwed up trading Matt Cassel to Dallas.


12) Rams 24, Browns 6-- Cleveland had scored 26.2 ppg in its previous five games, but St Louis forced/recovered four fumbles and rode rookie RB Gurley to a win that evens their record at 3-3. Rams scored defensive TD on Browns' third play of game.


11) Chiefs 23, Steelers 13-- KC snapped five-game skid against QB making his first NFL start. Chiefs still had only two TDs on five red zone drives. Home favorites are 25-20-1 vs spread in non-divisional games this season.


10) Dolphins 44, Texans 26-- Houston backup QB Mallett "missed the plane" to game; this is same guy who didn't show up for practice the day after Hoyer was named starting QB. Tough spot; QBs are hard to come by; if they cut him, he'll get scooped up in five minutes, but he seems like a jerk who should be cut.


This game was 41-nil at half; in Week 4 at Atlanta, Texans trailed 28-0 at half. O'Brien almost has to get fired, just a matter of when. Would be second year in a row the coach on Hard Knocks gets the boot. Not good for HBO or NFL Films.


As if things couldn't get worse for Houston, Arian Foster has a torn achilles.


9) Patriots 30, Jets 23-- Nine rushes, 16 yards; that was it for the Patriots' run game; they trailed 20-16 with 12:50 left, but on their last two drives, Brady drove them on TD drives of 80-68 yards for the win. NE has now won eight of last nine series games; five of last seven were decided by 3 or less points; Jets lost last five visits here by 9-3-3-2-7 points. Jets are much-improved, but Brady is still Brady.


8) Vikings 28, Lions 19-- There were rumors all Saturday night that Adrian Peterson was sick and wouldn't play; he ran ball 19 times for 98 yards and caught three passes. If playoffs started today, Minnesota would be #6 seed in NFC. Detroit is 1-6 as they head to London for a game with Kansas City.


7) Falcons 10, Titans 7-- Tennessee lost its ninth home game in a row; three of their home losses this year are by 3 or less points. Atlanta is an unimpressive 6-1; they've trailed in 4th quarter in four of six wins and this game wasn't much better, but they are still 6-1, albeit still behind Carolina in NFC South.


6) Redskins 31, Buccaneers 30-- Greatest comeback in Washington history; trailing 24-0 in first half, Cousins led Redskins back- they scored winning TD with 0:24 left, driving 80 yards on 11 plays. Bucs' WR Evans caught eight balls for 164 yards. Skins are 3-4 and only a game out of first place in NFC East.


5) Saints 27, Colts 21-- Indy is 3-4 but still atop a horrible AFC South; their teams are 6-1 vs spread outside the division. Colt owner Irsay had harsh words with GM Grigson after this loss-- Saints led 20-nil at half. New Orleans won three of last ffour games, scoring 58 points in last two games.


4) Raiders 37, Chargers 29-- Oakland led 37-6 early in the third quarter in a stadium where it was hard to tell who the home team was. NFL needs to clear up this stadium thing; who is going to LA, who isn't. Raiders started six drives in Charger territory; all 12 San Diego drives started 80+ yards from goal line.


3) Giants 27, Cowboys 20-- Dallas was -4 in turnovers, gave up a kick return TD and still almost won; they ran ball for 233 yards, but lost to Giants for first time in last six meetings. Divisional home favorites are now 5-16-1 vs spread this season.


Not a lot of fun having only two 4:25 games; NFL is leaning on Cowboys to produce TV ratings, but they stink without Romo and he is still a month away from playing.


2) Panthers 27, Eagles 16-- Carolina is unbeaten, Eagles are 3-4 and Rams need Sam Bradford to start two more games so they can bank a 4th-round draft pick for dealing the oft-injured QB last spring. If Dick Butkus were playing today, he'd be Thomas Lewis of the Panthers; hard hitter, very, very good player.


1) Cardinals 26, Ravens 18-- If the 2016 NFL Draft were this morning, it would be weird, since it isn't 2016 yet, but Baltimore would have the first pick- all six of their losses are by 8 or less points. Carson Palmer is now 75-75 as an NFL starting QB.

 

[CNOTES]

Thunder playing under pressure is profitable for NBA betting


Oklahoma City knows that if it wants to keep Kevin Durant around it must get back to the top of the Western Conference in 2015-16.


The NBA season starts Tuesday, as three of the league's four semi-finalists from last season (Warriors, Cavaliers, Hawks) are in action. Here's a betting roadmap to guide you profitably through this week’s NBA schedule:


Spread Watch


With Kevin Durant entering into the final year of his contract, this becomes the most critical year in the history of the Oklahoma City franchise. If the team underwhelms, then it might be the final season that Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and Kevin Durant all play together.


Certainly, Thunder GM Sam Presti understood this was a must-win season, so he replaced coach Scott Brooks with ex-Florida head coach, Billy Donovan. So far, so good. Oklahoma City went 5-1 in the preseason, and was 3-1-1 ATS, with one game (against Fenerbahce Ulker) not drawing a pointspread. Even better, OKC was tops in the NBA with a point differential of plus-12.2 points per game.


Will Oklahoma City find similar success in the regular season? It gets tested right out of the gate, with a home game against the San Antonio Spurs Wednesday. But after that, the schedule lightens up with a road game in Orlando Friday, followed by a home date versus Denver Sunday.


The Thunder are 6-2 SU and ATS their last eight regular season meetings against the Spurs, 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS their last five vs. Denver, and 7-1 SU their last eight meetings with Orlando. A 3-0 start would not surprise.


Total Watch


The Memphis Grizzlies' "Grit-N-Grind" style is somewhat anachronistic in today's pace-and-space NBA. And, if there was any doubt that head coach Dave Joerger was going to stay true to the Grizzlies' defensive identity, surely none remains after this preseason.


Memphis went 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS (its game against Maccabi Haifa was off the board), and outscored its opposition 88.9 to 81.0. Not surprisingly, all six of Memphis' lined games went Under the total. Last season, Memphis went 39-53-1 Over/Under, including 6-15 O/U in its last 21 games.


This season, Memphis opens with the Cleveland Cavaliers at home Wednesday (Cavs went 42-59-1 O/U last season). Next, Memphis will play the Pacers the following night in Indiana (57 percent of the Grizzlies' games since Feb. 2001 have gone Under if both Memphis and its foe played without rest), before returning home to face Brooklyn Saturday (nine of Memphis' last 12 vs. Brooklyn have gone Under).


Given that Game 1s have a marked tendency to go Under the total (169-135, 55.6 percent since 1990), consider taking a long look at the Grizzlies-Cavs Under Wednesday.


Injury Impact


Every team battles the injury bug, at some point. But the New Orleans Pelicans must feel snake bit right now. On Tuesday, point guard Tyreke Evans had arthroscopic knee surgery, which will put him on the shelf for upwards of two months. And Evans' injury was the latest in a slew of setbacks for New Orleans.


Among the injured right now are starting center Omer Asik, forward Luke Babbitt, backup center Alexis Ajinca, guard Norris Cole, and swingman Quincy Pondexter. Throw in the fact that New Orleans has a new head coach, with Alvin Gentry coming over from the Warriors, and it's a recipe for a slow start out of the gate.


The Pelicans went 3-4 in the preseason, and were outscored by 3.7 point per game. They also went 2-4-1 ATS. Interestingly, New Orleans will play the defending champ, Golden State, twice this week, with a road game against Portland sandwiched in between. The Pelicans are an awful 8-23-1 ATS their last 32 regular season meetings with the Warriors, and are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS their last five versus Portland.


Playbook


No team had a better offseason than the San Antonio Spurs, which not only signed All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge (after jettisoning Tiago Splitter), but also plucked David West from the free agent pool for pennies on the dollar.


However, with the influx of new talent often comes growing pains, as coaches must figure out how to integrate the new pieces into a cohesive whole, and players must learn each other's tendencies. So, it's not a total shock that San Antonio went 2-4 SU and ATS this preseason. Even worse for the Spurs, they averaged just 93.8 points - an amount better than just three other teams (Atlanta, Dallas and Memphis) this preseason. None of the Spurs' six exhibition games went Over the total.


The good news is that the Spurs are coached by the best in the business, Gregg Popovich. And, to paraphrase something “Coach Pop” likes to say when his team is struggling on the court, "they'll figure it out." But by what date they figure it out is anyone's guess (shooting guard Danny Green stated he hopes it's by Christmas).


This week, the Spurs will travel to Oklahoma City Wednesday, then come home for a date with Brooklyn Friday, before playing the Celtics Sunday afternoon, in Beantown. San Antonio is 2-11 SU and ATS at OKC, so the Thunder will be worth a look in Game 1.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 27


Cleveland @ Chicago

Game 501-502
October 27, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
121.144
Chicago
126.238
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 5
201
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
198
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-2 1/2); Over

Detroit @ Atlanta

Game 503-504
October 27, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
116.530
Atlanta
126.414
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 10
194
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 6 1/2
198 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-6 1/2); Under

New Orleans @ Golden State

Game 505-506
October 27, 2015 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
124.337
Golden State
130.786
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 6 1/2
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 9 1/2
210 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+9 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (67 - 35) at CHICAGO (56 - 38) - 10/27/2015, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 9-5 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 8-6 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (32 - 50) at ATLANTA (68 - 30) - 10/27/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 55-40 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 5-3 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 5-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (45 - 41) at GOLDEN STATE (83 - 20) - 10/27/2015, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 57-42 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 52-36 ATS (+12.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 6-4 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA

Tuesday, October 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM
DETROIT vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 11 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games

10:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. GOLDEN STATE
New Orleans is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing Golden State
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Golden State's last 18 games

 

[indiana]

C/notes........BOL with your NBA this season...........indy