Monday's Playoff Tip Sheet
October 12, 2015
ALDS Game 4
Kansas City Royals (95-67) at Houston Astros (86-76) | 1:00 p.m. ET (FS1)
Pitching Matchup: Yordano Ventura vs Lance McCullers
ML: Royals +115, Astros -125
Over/Under: 7.5/8
Updated Series Odds: Astros -360, Royals +300
In 2014, the Royals gave their American League playoff opponents fits, sweeping through the ALDS and ALCS rounds with ease on their way to the World Series. This year, they’re getting a taste of their own medicine from a team that appears to be stealing their playbook from a season ago -- be one of the last teams to make the postseason, win the Wild Card Game, and cause havoc from there. That’s exactly what the Astros have done en route to claiming their current 2-1 series lead, and now appear to be on the verge of knocking off the reigning AL champs.
If it’s going to happen on this night at Minute Maid Park, it will be with surprising rookie Lance McCullers (6-7, 3.22 ERA) toeing the rubber. The 22-year-old was very impressive this year in his freshman campaign, and despite his young age and the big setting, looks like the ideal choice the Astros would want in this situation after Dallas Keuchel captured Game 2 for them yesterday afternoon. That’s because McCullers was absolutely fantastic at home this season, where he went 4-1 in 10 starts with a marvelous 1.86 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a terrific 65/16 K/BB ratio in 63 total innings. Furthermore, he held opposing lineups to a .188 batting average. McCullers proved to be very consistent at Minute Maid Park, as he surrendered more than two earned runs in a start only once in his 10 home assignments. In his lone start against tonight’s opponent earlier this season, McCullers limited the Royals to one run in seven sharp innings, picking up the ‘W’ in the process.
With their backs against the wall, the Royals absolutely need their ace Yordano Ventura (13-8, 4.08 ERA) to bounce back from his poor Game 1 outing at the beginning of this series. When this series began on Thursday, Ventura drew the opening assignment and was disappointing, lasting only two innings, as he gave up three runs on four hits and a walk, striking out only two. As a result, Kansas City has to be worried, as he looked nothing like the pitcher who succeeded consistently throughout the season’s second half. Remember, Ventura went 9-2 after the All-Star break with a 3.56 ERA -- more than a full run better than the 4.73 ERA he owned in the first half -- to go with 98 strikeouts in 91 innings. One of those starts was a seven-inning gem against these same Astros, although that came at home at The K. The Royals have to win at Minute Maid Park tonight to bring the potential deciding Game 5 back home.
ALDS Game 4
Toronto Blue Jays (93-79) at Texas Rangers (88-74) | 4:00 p.m. ET (FS1)
Pitching Matchup: R.A. Dickey vs Derek Holland
ML: Blue Jays -135, Rangers +125
Over/Under: 9.5
Updated Series Odds: Rangers -175, Blue Jays +155
With a win last night in Game 3, the Toronto Blue Jays managed to stave off elimination with their backs against the wall, and will be looking to take tonight’s Game 4 affair in order to force the series back to Rogers Centre in Toronto for the deciding contest.
They have a pretty good shot to pull it off if Rangers starter Derek Holland (4-3, 4.91 ERA) continues with his struggles that were very prevalent throughout the end of the regular season. Holland lasted all of one inning in the team’s home opener back in April before landing on the disabled list, a stay that ended up lasting months for the second consecutive season. The Dutch Oven returned in mid-August and looked much like the Derek Holland that emerged from injury last September, going six innings or more in each of his first five starts back, en route to maintaining a very nice 3.13 ERA. In his four starts since, however, Holland surrendered three runs or more in each instance, while logging only one quality start within that span, hence why he finished with an ERA almost north of five. Holland faced the Blue Jays in his second start back and surrendered four runs in six innings of a no-decision in Arlington.
Most people don’t realize it but R.A. Dickey (11-11, 3.91 ERA) actually got his start with the Rangers back in 2001, when he began a five-season tenure with the organization. The former NL Cy Young award winner was actually drafted by Texas in the first round back in 1996, though he didn’t really emerge until well over a decade later with the Mets in 2010, around the time he developed his signature knuckleball. And that’s the advantage Toronto arguably has in this affair, being one of only two knuckleballers who started games in the Majors this season. Since there’s no one else like him, and the fact that the Rangers didn’t even face Dickey this year with their mostly new-look lineup, that could cause unfamiliarity problems early on in the ballgame for Texas if they can’t adjust to the knuckler. The 40-year-old is also entering this one on a hot streak, as he ended the 2015 campaign with his best month of the year. In six September starts, Dickey went 4-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, while limiting opposing lineups to a .171 batting average over that stretch.
NLDS Game 3
St. Louis Cardinals (100-62) at Chicago Cubs (97-65) | 6:00 p.m. ET (TBS)
Pitching Matchup: Michael Wacha vs Jake Arrieta
ML: Cardinals +200, Cubs -240
Over/Under: 7
Updated Series Odds: Cardinals +140, Cubs -170
After losing Game 2 of this NLDS series on Saturday evening, the MLB-best Cardinals have now surprisingly been relegated to the role of underdog, perhaps understandably so considering who they have to contend with in Game 3 tonight at Wrigley Field. In the first playoff game from the north side of Chicago since 2008, the Cubs will be rolling with their ace and NL Cy Young frontrunner Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA), looking to pick up where he last left off in the NL Wild Card Game. Of course, it was Arrieta’s complete game shutout over the Pittsburgh Pirates last Tuesday that got Chicago up to this point, and there’s a pretty good chance he churns out a similar effort.
Arrieta has enjoyed some notable success against the division rival Cardinals since he first came to the Cubs in 2013. In that season, he faced St. Louis in his second start with Chicago, and proceeded to toss seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. Last year, in his first full campaign with his new club, Arrieta opposed the Cardinals four times, and went 1-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, while racking up 28 strikeouts in 22.1 total innings in those outings. His mastery of the Redbirds continued this season, as he maintained a 2.42 ERA and .229 opposing batting average in four more starts matching up against him, though St. Louis did manage to hand him one of his six losses this season. With this in mind, it’s no wonder he’s such a heavy favorite tonight.
At the same time, that makes the Cards a tempting value ’dog on the road, considering they have Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38 ERA) going this evening. That’s especially true given Wacha’s track record in the postseason despite being just 24-years-old. While he didn’t make any starts for St. Louis in the playoffs a year ago thanks to shoulder issues, the right-hander was very instrumental in leading the club to the World Series in 2013, even winning NLCS MVP honors during that postseason. That’s because he went 2-0 in that series against the Dodgers with a 0.00 ERA and 0.66 WHIP, yielding no runs in 13.2 innings and logging 13 strikeouts compared to only two walks. Wacha was also very good in his only career NLDS start, defeating the Pirates with seven-plus sharp innings. Against the Cubs this year, however, Wacha posted his worst numbers against any team that he faced more than twice during the 2015 campaign. In fact, in four starts versus Chicago, the former first-round draft pick went 1-2 with an ugly 6.86 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Two of those starts came on the road at Wrigley, where he had an even worse 7.36 ERA.
NLDS Game 3
Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72) at New York Mets (92-70) | 8:30 p.m. ET (TBS)
Pitching Matchup: Brett Anderson vs Matt Harvey
ML: Dodgers +160, Mets -180
Over/Under: 6.5
Updated Series Odds: Dodgers -120, Mets -110
Lost in all the hoopla surrounding Saturday night’s Game 2 controversy is the fact that tonight’s Game 3 NLDS encounter between the Mets and Dodgers will be the first ever playoff game hosted at Citi Field, which opened up in 2009. Thus, it should be electric atmosphere in Flushing this evening for a variety of reasons.
As disappointing as how the last contest turned out, the Mets can at least turn to reliable big-game pitcher Matt Harvey (13-8, 2.71 ERA) in this particular assignment, as they seek to retake the lead in the series. Arguably, New York couldn’t really have a better option for this affair, considering how Harvey has often served as their stopgap to a losing streak, not to mention someone who has thrived at home since first coming up in 2012. That glaring trend was very evident in 2015, in which Harvey went 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 17 starts at Citi Field. In general, the 26-year-old has also looked more like his usual dominant self since the All-Star break, as in his 12 starts following the Midsummer Classic, Harvey went 5-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, while holding opposing hitters to a .210 batting average. There’s no question he’ll be extra amped and locked in for this one, which should help ensure a positive outlook for his performance.
The Dodgers will counter in Game 3 with one of the most underrated pickups by any team last offseason, that being left-hander Brett Anderson (10-9, 3.69 ERA). Despite a very poor reputation for staying healthy -- Anderson had previously never made more than 20 starts in a season since his rookie year of 2009 -- the 27-year-old southpaw managed to make a career-high 31 starts, while racking up double-digit wins for the second time in his career. Anderson was an immensely important player for the Dodgers all year long, providing crucial depth in the rotation behind NL Cy Young candidates Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. While you might figure the former Oakland Athletics hurler was at his best at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium this year, that was actually not the case, as Anderson’s road ERA (3.07) easily bested his ERA at home (4.29), making the lefty an intriguing road ’dog. Regardless of the outcome, tonight’s affair might have the biggest storylines after Chase Utley’s controversial take-out slide at second base that turned the tide of this series.
