Cnotes College Football Championship Week Rated Plays, Trends, News Etc. !!

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 13
November 29, 2015




Overall Notes


COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs


Straight Up 49-13
Against the Spread 39-22-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 28-34


Against the Spread 24-37-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 34-26-2


The largest underdog to win straight up
South Florida (-24.5) at UCF, 44-3


The largest favorite to cover
New Mexico (+10.5, ML +350) vs. Air Force, 47-35
Ohio (+12, ML +350) at Northern Illinois, 26-21


Top 25 Notes


-- The holiday weekend solved a lot of questions, as the playoff picture really cleared up quite a bit. Five of the Top 6 teams in the nation won outright, with the Top 6 ranked teams going 5-1 ATS. Notre Dame was the lone exception, falling at Stanford on a last-season field goal, 38-36, but they were able to earn the cover. Top-ranked Clemson won their rivalry game at South Carolina by a 37-32 count, but they were never close to cover their 20 1/2-point spread. ... Baylor slipped up Friday in sloppy conditions at Texas Christian in double-overtime, one of three Top 10 teams to lose straight up and fail to cover the spread, joining Florida and Oklahoma State in the loser's lounge.


-- Ohio State was able to bounce back after losing at home to Michigan State. In fact, the Buckeyes offense had their most complete effort of the season, humbling rival Michigan in the Big House by a 42-13 score for the win and cover. ... Speaking of Sparty, they showed last weekend's big win was no fluke and they are hungry for a spot in the four-team playoff, roughing up Penn State by a 55-16 count.


-- Houston bounced back rather nicely after their disappointing setback last week, surprising Navy 52-31 in the AAC Friday night. The Middies, and Toledo, each potentially fumbled away their chance at a New Year's Day bowl game with a costly loss. It likely opened up the door for the Cougars of Houston to move into the prestigious spot for a big payday.


Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)


-- The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Championship Game will feature Clemson and North Carolina next weekend, as the Tar Heels did their part to knock off North Carolina State in Raleigh by a 45-34 count. The Tar Heels have rattled off 11 straight victories since a neutral-site setback against South Carolina in Week 1. UNC is 8-3 ATS during the 11-game winning streak and will be a handful for Clemson. UNC returns to the scene of their neutral-site loss back on Sept. 3 when they face the Tigers in Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.


-- Iowa capped off a perfect 12-0 regular season with a 28-20 road win and cover at Nebraska, as they head off to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis next weekend to meet Michigan State. The Hawkeyes opened the season 4-1 ATS, but they're just 3-4 ATS since Oct. 10. The 'over' did not hit against the Huskers, but is 7-3-1 in Iowa's past 11 outings. ... For Michigan State, they opened 6-0 SU, but 0-6 ATS, in their first six games. However, they have gotten much better against the number, going 5-1 SU/ATS over the past six outings.


-- The Big 12 had a crazy weekend, as Oklahoma carries the conference flag into the four-team playoff, as the league will not be denied this season. The Sooners crushed OK State in Stillwater in a game which nearly had the 'over' connect by halftime. Since the Red River Rivalry setback to Texas back on Oct. 10, the Sooners ripped off seven straight wins while going 6-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' also went 6-1 during the span, thanks in large part to their nearly automatic offense. The Sooners have scored 44 or more points in six of the past seven, and 41 or more points in nine of their 12 games this season.


-- Southern California punched their ticket to the Pac-12 Championship Game in Santa Clara next weekend with a 40-21 thumping of UCLA at the L.A. Coliseum. The Trojans have been decent at home, going 5-2 SU. Remember one of those losses came against Stanford back on Sept. 19. They will face the Cardinal next weekend in the Bay Area. ... As far as UCLA is concerned, they will head to a bowl game, but they failed to cover in back-to-back games all season. The good news for bettors is that they only failed to cover in two straight games only once, back in early October. So they might be in good shape against the number heading into their bowl game if trends continue.


-- Florida will meet Alabama in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta next weekend, but the Gators limp in with more questions than answers. After barely dispatching Florida Atlantic last week in an overtime win, they were listless in their rivalry game against Florida State, falling 27-2. After opening the season 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS, the Gators went 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS since Oct. 17, the first game to start QB Will Grier's season-ending suspension. ... 'Bama had their hands full for three quarters at Auburn, leading just 19-13. Howeer, the Tide pulled away for the cover in the fourth quarter, winning 29-13. The Tide roll into Atlanta next weekend with a season-best four-game cover streak after opening 3-5 ATS in the first eight games. The 'under' has also cashed in four of the past four and seven of the past nine for the Tide.


Mid-Major Report


-- Temple and Houston will meet in the AAC Championship Game at TDECU Stadium in Houston next Saturday. The Owls avoided the upset bug in their 27-3 against Connecticut to cap off their historic regular season in style. The Owls are 5-1 ATS over their past six games, and they will play Houston for the first time this season. ... South Florida was likely the most improved team in any conference as the season went on. They opened 1-3 SU, but won seven of their final eight games, going 7-1 ATS in their final eight games.


-- In Conference USA play, Southern Mississippi and Western Kentucky will do battle in Bowling Green next Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET for the conference title. The Golden Eagles were one of the best stories in college football this season, rebounding for a couple of seasons where they were one of the worst programs in the nation. They covered all but two of their 12 games this season, and ended the year 9-3 SU. They did not play the Hilltoppers during the regular season. ... Western finished with wins in four straight, and eight of the final nine, with only a 48-20 setback at LSU Oct. 24 as the lone blemish since mid-September. The 'over' connected in six of their final seven games, and nine of the past 11.


-- Ohio provided Toledo a gift with a 26-21 upset in DeKalb against Northern Illinois Tuesday, but the Rockets declined the chance to go to the MAC Championship Game with a 35-30 loss to Western Michigan. It will be NIU facing Bowling Green in the title game next weekend in Detroit. Bowling Green and NIU did not play during the regular season. The Falcons finished off the season with covers in six of their final seven.


-- San Diego State and Air Force will lock horns in the Mountain West Conference title game Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Aztecs and Falcons did not face each other during the regular season. The Aztecs opened the season 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS, but Rocky Long's bunch went 8-0 SU in conference play and went 7-0-1 ATS during the impressive span. USAFA wasn't as impressive, losing their final at New Mexico to snap a five-game win and cover streak. The 'over' went 6-1 in the final seven for Air Force. ... Speaking of UNM, they will go bowling after finishing with eight victories. They won three of their past four to finish the season, and they were double-digit underdogs during the span.


Bad Beats


-- If you had California (-3.5) against Arizona State late Saturday night, you were likely feeling very uneasy as the final minutes ticked down. The Golden Bears erased a 21-point deficit to storm into the lead, going up six at one point. Both teams let up defensively down the stretch and couldn't stop anyone, with Arizona State taking a late 46-45 lead. Cal drove down the field rather quickly, and nearly broke tackles on a few plays for the touchdown and cover. However, they bogged down offensively and settled for a field goal. However, Arizona State coach Todd Graham had two timeouts and elected not to use them for some reason, letting Cal kick a chip-shot game-winning field goal. Had he elected to use his timeouts, perhaps Cal would have broken a short run for score to cover. Anyway, Arizona State bettors were actually helped out by the coaches' strange clock management, but Cal bettors were likely steaming.


-- If you had the 'under' (64.5) in the Egg Bowl, your ticket could look very different from others. The line opened at 64, and closed at 66.5. So depending on when you made your wager was important. After a 21-point first quarter (all by Mississippi), the scoring settled down significantly and the 'under' looked good regardless of your total. However, a touchdown with 1:17 by Mississippi State ended up pushing the total over for some, ruining what looked to be shaping up as a win.


-- Fresno State (+10.5) moneyline bettors were feeling pretty good about themselves early on, as the Bulldogs went up 24-7 against Colorado State. After frittering away the lead with 20 unanswered points by the Rams, the Bulldogs went up 31-27 with 12:58. However, a quick responded by the Rams with 10:03 was the final score of the game and a tough pill to swallow for moneyline bettors. At least Fresno State side bettors were on the right side all evening long and the spread was never threatened.


-- Hawaii was up 21-3 in the second quarter, and 28-10 early in the third quarter as a touchdown favorite against Louisiana-Monroe. However, the Warhawks posted 13 points in 39 seconds late in the fourth quarter to turn a 28-13 game into a 28-26 backdoor cover in the late game.


-- In the Alabama-Auburn game, a Tigers receiver was wide open and dropped what likely would have been a touchdown to cut the game to 22-19 pending the extra point. Instead, the Tide got the ball back, up nine, and punched in a 25-yard touchdown run with :26 left to take a 29-13 lead and give Tide side bettors a miracle cover, and Tigers side bettors searching for the Pepto Bismol.


-- Tulane was up 34-24 against Tulsa with 7:40 to go, and they were a 9 1/2-point underdog at home. Tulsa quickly closed it to 34-31 with 6:45, and then a pick-six put the Golden Hurricane up 38-34 for the first time since 12:29 of the first quarter. With less than two minutes to go, the Green Wave were driving for the game-winning touchdown, but instead were victimized by another pick-six with 1:12 to go to give Tulsa a 45-34 win and their first time covering all game.

 

[CNOTES]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 13
November 29, 2015




Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the final big weekend of the college football regular season.


Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Bowling Green (-23½) 48, Ball State 10: While Bowling Green led 34-0 at one point Ball State got very close to the spread in the fourth quarter with a field goal cutting the margin to just 24 points. Bowling Green responded with a 90-yard drive to clearly get by the number and then broke a 95-yard run in the final minute to pad the numbers ahead of next week’s MAC Championship game.

Texas Tech (PK) 48, Texas 45: The Thursday night game in the Big XII provided a very exciting finish as Texas Tech’s 3-point lead heading into the fourth quarter vanished as Texas took a 38-34 lead with under eight minutes to go in the game after a 46-yard run from Tyrone Swoopes. It only took six plays for Texas Tech to get the lead back and with less than three minutes to go Texas went for it on a 4th-and-7 play from their own 40. On the next play from scrimmage Texas Tech ran a bit of a trick play to produce a 40-yard run for a score, making it a 10-point margin and making a late Texas touchdown after a nice kick return meaningless relative to the number.

Tulsa (-9) 45, Tulane 34: For the second straight season Tulsa had a wild comeback win vs. Tulane and in both instances the Hurricane came away with incredibly improbable favorite covers as well. This year Tulane pulled ahead 34-24 about halfway through the fourth quarter but Tulsa took less than a minute to get back within three playing as a road favorite that climbed from -6 all the way up to -9 by kickoff. On Tulane’s first play from scrimmage on the next possession Tulsa got an interception returned 28 yards for a touchdown, to take a 38-34 lead. Down four Tulane used up much of the clock and drove all the way down to the Tulsa 16-yard line looking to take the lead back. On 3rd-and-9 Tulane was picked off again and the interception was returned 89 yards for another score putting Tulsa up by 11 for an amazing turn of events and certainly one of the luckier covers of the season.


TCU (+2) 28, Baylor 21: There were a lot of personnel questions in the Friday night Big XII clash that many expected to be the game of the season in the conference before the season started. A 56-yard fumble return for TCU tied the game at 14-14 early in the second quarter and incredibly there was no scoring the rest of regulation with sloppy play through a downpour. Baylor went first in overtime and the Bears kept the ball mostly on the ground before finding the end zone with a four-yard pass play on 3rd down. TCU got a big pass interference penalty on a 3rd down play on its possession, finding the end zone two plays later. TCU cashed in with another touchdown on 3rd-and-goal from the 8-yard line to start the second overtime. Baylor came up empty with two rushes falling just short of the first down mark as TCU escaped with the win and cover, making the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State game essentially the Big XII title game.

Appalachian State (-22½) 28, Louisiana-Lafayette 7: Appalachian State struggled to put up big numbers in this home finale but with about six minutes to go the Mountaineers slipped past the heavy favorite spread with their fourth touchdown of the game. With the game in hand a relaxed Appalachian State defense wound up losing the shutout as Louisiana-Lafayette found the end zone in the final minute of the game for the late underdog cover.

Louisville (-7) 38, Kentucky 24: Needing to win this rivalry game to make a bowl game Kentucky had a great start leading 21-0 just over 10 minutes into the game. Kentucky still led 24-7 at the half but a big third quarter from the Louisville offense turned the tide with the Cardinals scoring 17 points in the final eight minutes of the quarter to tie the game heading into the final frame. Punt returns wound up being the most important plays in the fourth quarter as twice Louisville wound up with a short field after a Kentucky punt, getting touchdowns on drives of just 34 yards and 13 yards to pull away in the fourth quarter to spoil the postseason hopes for the Wildcats.

Cincinnati (-2) 19, East Carolina 16: An early 10-0 lead for East Carolina was erased as Cincinnati had a 16-10 lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Pirates found the end zone to tie the game early in the final frame after a 15-play drive but the extra-point was missed to leave a 16-16 tie. Cincinnati kicker Andrew Gantz missed a 44-yard field goal on the next drive for the Bearcats but he succeeded in a redemptive 42-yard kick as time expired as the Bearcats narrowly won and covered.

Syracuse (+3) 20, Boston College 17: Syracuse led 17-7 in the third quarter but Boston College broke a big run for a two-play scoring drive to get within three. In the final three minutes of the game the Eagles tied the game with a field goal but Syracuse milked the rest of the clock for a final kick that was good for the slight underdog win.

Indiana (-9½) 54, Purdue 36: Needing this win to clinch a postseason bid Indiana maintained control with a lead that stretched from 10-17 points most of the game with a spread that climbed about three points during the week. The Hoosiers led by 16 early in the fourth quarter but a touchdown with a successful two-point conversion briefly put Purdue within eight. A 72-yard pass play for the Hoosiers ended the cover threat about a minute later however and Purdue had turnovers on each of its final three possessions.

Florida Atlantic (-4) 33, Old Dominion 31: Florida Atlantic led 24-3 at one point but Old Dominion was within three after a long pass play late in the third quarter. An interception allowed the Monarchs to go in front for the first time in the game just a few plays later, leading 31-27 heading into the fourth quarter. Florida Atlantic got a field goal to trim the margin to one point and disaster struck for Old Dominion later in the final frame with a with a fumble that set up the Owls on the 21-yard line. A touchdown would have put Florida Atlantic in position to cover but the Owls settled for a field goal to take a two-point lead which held up.

Wyoming (+2) 35, UNLV 28: This Mountain West finale was tied at 21-21 and 28-28 in the fourth quarter as an early Wyoming lead slipped away. The Cowboys connected for a 64-yard touchdown with just over two minutes to go to take the lead for the final time as a slight home underdog.

Maryland (+1) 46, Rutgers 41: While this was a meaningless season finale at the bottom of the Big Ten it was not without a very entertaining finish. Rutgers had a 31-13 lead at the break but Maryland climbed within four in the third quarter before a Rutgers touchdown put the Knights back up by 11 heading into the final frame. Maryland had back-to-back touchdown drives to take a 39-38 lead as they missed on both two-point conversion attempts which looked important as a Rutgers field goal with less than five minutes to go put the Knights up by two. On the next play from scrimmage Maryland turned in an 80-yard rush to take the lead and Rutgers fell short on back-to-back rushes on 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1 in Maryland territory on their final possession.

LSU (-6½) 19, Texas A&M 7: LSU led 13-7 through three quarters which was not quite enough on the closing number that climbed past -6. With less than three minutes to go Leonard Fournette hit the end zone to put the Tigers up 19-7 with a missed two-point conversion leaving the back door open for the Aggies. Texas A&M reached the LSU 38-yard line late in the game before an interception ended any threat for the underdog cover.

Northwestern (-2) 24, Illinois 14: The Wildcats took a 24-14 lead early in the fourth quarter but Illinois made a couple of threats to score late in the game with +3 or +3½ available on the Illini much of the week for this Solider Field game. An interception ended a drive inside the Northwestern 25-yard line and Illinois also missed a 27-yard field goal as Northwestern held on to complete a 10-2 regular season.

Alabama (-15½) 29, Auburn 13: Alabama led 19-6 early in the third quarter, sitting just short of the road favorite spread, settling for field goals early in the game. Auburn connected on an incredible one-handed catch for a 77-yard touchdown to suddenly make it a six-point game. Alabama added a field goal early in the fourth quarter and then with just 26 seconds to go the Tide padded Derrick Henry’s Heisman statistics with a 25-yard touchdown run on 4th down with the game in hand after Auburn gave the ball back going for it deep in its own territory, providing a miracle late cover for those on the Iron Bowl favorite.

California (-4) 48, Arizona State 46: California dug an early hole in this game with a 27-10 deficit at the half. In the second half the Bears clearly looked like the stronger team, moving the ball with ease and eventually posting nearly 700 yards of offense. By the start of the fourth quarter California was within two points and the Bears took a one-point lead with about nine minutes to go after missing on a two-point conversion. Arizona State had to settle for another field goal to take the lead back but a four-play scoring drive put the Bears in front and with a successful two-point conversion the Bears were past the number with about six minutes to go with a six-point lead. Arizona State delivered a great late drive to take a one-point lead with just over two minutes to go but the Sun Devils could not stop Cal’s offense and with a minute to go California had 1st-and-goal. A touchdown would have earned the cover but all California needed was a field goal and they conservatively played for the kick which went through from 26 yards as time expired.

Idaho (-4½) 38, Texas State 31: Idaho and Texas State were tied heading into the fourth quarter and it was tied again halfway through the final frame at 31-31 after the Bobcats scored after a muffed punt. With just over a minute to go Idaho scored the go-ahead touchdown to win and secure the cover as well on a line that jumped on Saturday from -2½ to -4½.

UTEP (+3) 20, North Texas 17: In the third quarter North Texas scored on a punt return and a fumble return to take a 17-13 lead at home but UTEP put together a great late scoring drive to take the lead in the fourth quarter. North Texas had an 11-play drive on its final possession but a penalty was a big setback and the UTEP got the stop on 4th down.

Stanford (-4) 38, Notre Dame 36: Notre Dame led 29-28 heading into the fourth quarter having missed on a two-point conversion on the previous score. Stanford took a six point lead after an early fourth quarter touchdown and then an offense-oriented game shut down on both sides with four consecutive punts. Notre Dame put together a 15-play drive to score with 30 seconds to go on a 1st down play to take the lead by one after the extra-point. On replay DeShone Kizer looked down short of the end zone but the play stood. Ultimately Stanford had enough time to go 45 yards for the game winning kick although the Irish held on to the underdog cover.

San Diego State (-17) 31, Nevada 14: This game was tied at 14-14 late in the second quarter but a 72-yard run put San Diego State in front by the half and they managed to reach the closing spread with a fourth-quarter touchdown following a Nevada touchdown. San Diego State was favored by 17½ much of the week and neither team really threatened to score again the rest of the way.

Hawaii (-7) 28, UL-Monroe 26: Hawaii led 28-10 at one point in the third quarter but Louisiana-Monroe trimmed that margin to just eight points by the start of the fourth quarter. The Warhawks drove to the Hawaii 11-yard line in the fourth quarter but wound up getting sacked going for it on 4th down to end the scoring threat. Incredibly a few plays later Louisiana-Monroe found the end zone on defense with a fumble recovery in the end zone, making it a two point game. The conversion attempt was for the tie but the Warhawks fell short but the late score was enough to earn the underdog cover.

 

[CNOTES]

Championship Game Notes
November 29, 2015




Week 14 of the college football season will be highlighted with eight championship games on tap. The action starts Friday with the MAC and concludes Saturday with seven more championships.


Check out the matchups, odds and betting notes on all seven games below.


MAC Championship - Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois
Date: Friday, Dec. 4 (ESPN2, 8:00 p.m.)
Venue: Ford Field
Location: Detroit, Michigan
MAC Betting History


Odds: Bowling Green opened as a nine-point favorite.


Betting Notes and Trends


-- Friday’s matchup will be the 19th MAC Championship.


-- This will be the sixth straight year that Northern Illinois will be making an appearance in the title game.


-- Norther Illinois and Bowling Green will be meeting for the third consecutive season in the title game. The Huskies captured a 51-17 win last season while the Falcons captured a 47-27 win in the 2013 championship.


-- The ‘over’ has cashed in all three games during this span.


-- Underdogs have gone 11-7 against the spread in the MAC title game.


-- Bowling Green went 6-1 on the road this season, 5-2 ATS. The lone loss coming in Week 1 against SEC foe Tennessee, 59-30.


-- NIU lost its first three road games, but won its final three as visitors. The Huskies went 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS as underdogs this season and the losses came to Power-5 schools in Ohio State (20-13) and Boston College (17-14).


Preseason Future Odds to win the MAC
Northern Illinois 7/2
Bowling Green 4/1


CUSA Championship - Southern Mississippi at Western Kentucky
Date: Saturday, Dec. 5 (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)
Venue: LT Smith Stadium
Location: Bowling Green, Kentucky
C-USA Betting History


Odds: Western Kentucky opened as an 8 ½-point home favorite.


Betting Notes and Trends


-- This will be the 11th Conference USA Championship Game. Underdogs have gone 6-4 against the spread. Total bettors have seen the ‘under’ go 5-4-1.


-- WKU will playing in its first title game while Southern Mississippi will be making its first trip since it captured the championship in the 2011 season.


-- Western Kentucky has gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season. The Hilltoppers are 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS when listed as a single-digit favorite.


-- WKU watched the ‘over’ go 9-3 this season, 4-1 at home.


-- Southern Miss is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS on the road, losses coming to Nebraska and Marshall.


-- The Golden Eagles closed the season with six consecutive wins and went 5-1 ATS during this streak. The school finished 10-2 ATS, which was the best covering mark in college football.


-- The last meeting between the pair took place in 2012 as Western Kentucky posted a 42-17 win as a three-point home favorite.


Preseason Future Odds to win the CUSA
Western Kentucky 5/2
Southern Mississippi 60/1


American Athletic Championship - Temple at Houston
Date: Saturday, Dec. 5 (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)
Venue: TDECU Stadium
Location: Houston, Texas


Odds: Houston opened as a 4 ½-point home favorite and was moved up to 5 at most shops, 5 ½ at the Wynn Las Vegas.


Betting Notes and Trends


-- This will be the inaugural American Athletic Championship game.


-- Temple went 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road this season. The Owls went 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as underdogs this season, with the lone loss coming to Notre Dame (24-20).


-- Houston was 7-0 SU and 3-4 ATS at home this season.


Preseason Future Odds to win the AAC
Houston 4/1
Temple 10/1


Pac 12 Championship - Stanford vs. USC
Date: Saturday, Dec. 5 (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, California
Pac-12 Betting History


Odds: Stanford opened 3 ½ and was pushed up to a four-point favorite.


Betting Notes and Trends


-- The Pac-12 North has captured the first four championship games, which includes two wins by both Stanford and Oregon.


-- Favorites have gone 3-1 SU but just 1-3 ATS in the first four Pac-12 title games.


-- The ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2.


-- Stanford went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS as a visitor this season while USC was 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS.


-- These teams met in Week 3 and the Cardinal stopped the Trojans 41-31 as a 10-point road underdog.


-- This game went ‘over’ (50.5) but the three previous meetings saw the ‘under’ connect.


Preseason Future Odds to win the Pac-12
USC 2/1
Stanford 3/1


SEC Championship - Alabama vs. Florida
Date: Saturday, Dec. 5 (CBS, 4:00 p.m.)
Venue: Georgia Dome
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
SEC Betting History


Odds: Pinnacle Sports opened Alabama -12 and that number was steamed up to -17, where it sits at the majority of betting shops as of Sunday evening. A couple outfits have the Gators +17 ½.


Betting Notes and Trends


-- Saturday’s matchup will be the 23rd SEC Championship Game. Since its inception in 1992, favorites and underdogs have gone 11-11-1 against the spread.


-- Total players have watched the ‘over’ cash in the last six championship games. The ‘over’ is 14-9 in the 23 title matchups.


-- The SEC West has won six straight matchups and five of those victories were by double digits.


-- Alabama has won three championships during the recent span and four overall.


-- This will be the eighth meeting between these teams in the championship game. Florida holds a 4-3 edge.


-- The Crimson Tide went 4-0 both SU and ATS on the road, while Florida was 3-1 both SU and ATS as a visitor.


-- Alabama has won and covered four straight meetings against Florida, winning all of them by at least 19 points.


Preseason Future Odds to win the SEC
Alabama 5/4
Florida 30/1


Mountain West Championship - Air Force at San Diego State
Date: Saturday, Dec. 5 (ESPN2, 7:30 p.m.)
Venue: Qualcomm Stadium
Location: San Diego, California
MWC Betting History


Odds: San Diego State opened as a six-point home favorite.


Betting Notes and Trends


-- This will be the third MWC Championship game and played at the venue of the higher seed.


-- In the first two title games, the home team has won both games.


-- Favorites and underdogs are 1-1 while the ‘under’ has gone 2-0.


-- Air Force was a great bet at home (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) but struggled to a 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS road mark. San Diego State went 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS at home, all five wins coming by double digits.


-- The Aztecs started the season 1-3 but closed with eight straight wins (7-0-1 ATS).


-- These schools didn’t meet this regular season but San Diego State has won and covered the past five meetings, which includes three wins (30-14, 38-9, 27-25) at home. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 during this span.


Preseason Future Odds to win the MWC
San Diego State 7/1
Air Force 15/1


ACC Championship - Clemson vs. North Carolina
Date: Saturday, Dec. 5 (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
ACC Betting History


Odds: Clemson opened as a 4 ½-point favorite and has been pushed up to 6.


Betting Notes and Trends


-- This will be the 11th installment of the ACC Championship. Favorites have gone 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS. Total bettors have watched the ‘over/under’ go 5-5.


-- Clemson has played in the title game twice and has gone 1-1.


-- North Carolina will be making its first appearance in the title game.


-- The Tigers have gone 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road this season while UNC was 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.


-- UNC hasn’t lost since it fell to South Carolina 17-13 in Week 1.


-- Clemson has been favored by a touchdown or less twice this season and it was 0-2 ATS, winning both games by a combined five points.


-- The Tigers ran past the Tar Heels 50-35 in 2014 as 14-point home favorites. Prior to this game, the schools split meetings in the 2010 and 2011 seasons.


Preseason Future Odds to win the ACC
Clemson 2/1
North Carolina 12/1


Big 10 Championship - Michigan State vs. Iowa
Date: Saturday, Dec. 5 (FOX, 8:15 p.m.)
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
Big Ten Betting History


Odds: Michigan State opened as a 4 ½-point favorite and that number has dropped to 3 ½ and 3 at most shops.
Betting Notes and Trends


-- Underdogs have gone 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the first four Big Ten title games.


-- The ‘over’ has gone 4-0.


-- Iowa was 5-0 both SU and ATS on the road this season. This will be the second time this season that the Hawkeyes are listed as underdogs.


-- Michigan State is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS as a visitor, the lone loss coming on a controversial call at Nebraska, 39-38.


-- These teams didn’t play in this year’s regular season. In the previous four matchups between 2010 and 2014, the pair split those games with each school capturing one road victory apiece.


Preseason Future Odds to win the Big 10
Michigan State 8/1
Iowa 25/1

 

[CNOTES]

Oklahoma up to No. 3 in latest AP Poll
November 29, 2015


Oklahoma moved up to No. 3 behind Clemson and Alabama and the Big Ten placed three teams in the top six of the new Associated Press college football poll.


Clemson is No. 1 for the fourth straight week and Alabama is No. 2. The Tigers received 53 first-place votes and the Crimson Tide got the other eight from the media panel.


The Sooners jumped two spots to after winning the Big 12 title with a 58-23 victory at Oklahoma State on Saturday night.


Three Big Ten teams followed with Iowa at No. 4, Michigan State No. 5 and Ohio State No. 6.


Stanford moved up six spots to No. 7 after beating Notre Dame with a last-second field goal and the Fighting Irish dropped from fourth to ninth.


POLL POINTS


Oklahoma has its best AP ranking since the 2011 season, but this one is far more satisfying for the Sooners.


In `11, Oklahoma was preseason No. 1 and steadily slipped as the season went along. The Sooners were No. 3 in October, dropped as far as No. 19 in the poll after the conclusion of the regular season and finished 16th.


This season Oklahoma started 19th, moved up a bit before losing to Texas in October and slipping back to 19th and has steadily climbed since.


CONFERENCE CALL


The Big Ten has three of the top six teams in the rankings for the first time since the final regular season poll of the 2006 season, when Ohio State was No. 1, Michigan was third and Wisconsin was sixth.


The bowl season did not go well for the Big Ten's heavyweights. Ohio State lost to Florida in the BCS championship game, 41-14, and Michigan was beaten 32-18 in the Rose Bowl by Southern California.


Wisconsin won the Capital One Bowl 17-14 against Arkansas.


CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN


Big Ten - 6


Big 12 - 4


Pac-12 - 4


SEC - 4


American - 3


ACC - 3


Independent - 1


RANKED VS. RANKED


Five conference championship games, including all four of the Power Five leagues that have them, will match ranked teams.


No. 4 Iowa vs. No. 5 Michigan State, Big Ten championship in Indianapolis


No. 18 Florida vs. No. 2 Alabama, SEC championship in Atlanta


No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 8 North Carolina, ACC championship in Charlotte, North Carolina


No. 7 Stanford vs. No. 24 Southern Cal, Pac-12 championship, at Santa Clara, California


No. 20 Temple at No. 17 Houston, American Athletic Conference championship.

 

[CNOTES]

Crimson Tide open as huge chalk for conference championship week


Alabama has opened as 17-point favorites over Florida for the SEC Championship Game.


Clemson may be the No. 1 team in the college football playoff rankings, but the Tigers aren’t the team most expected to make it to the national semifinals.


That would be the Alabama Crimson Tide, based on the opening lines for next Saturday’s conference championship game. Nick Saban’s squad (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) heads into Saturday’s Southeastern Conference title tilt as a 17-point chalk against Florida, according to Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas.


‘Bama is coming off a 29-13 victory laying 14.5 points at Auburn on Saturday, its ninth consecutive SU win since a stunning home loss to Mississippi. It was also the fourth straight week that the Tide cashed for bettors.


On the flip side, Florida is coming off its worst performance of the year. The Gators (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS), 2.5-point home underdogs to rival Florida State, mustered only a safety in a 27-2 loss Saturday. That knocked them entirely out of the playoff picture, even if they somehow stun Alabama this week at the Georgia Dome.


“The Gators do play very good defense, but that can only get you so far,” Avello said, noting Florida ranks fifth nationally in both points allowed (15.5 ppg) and yards allowed (283.6 ypg). “Scoring two points won’t win many games. The Seminoles’ Dalvin Cook ran for 183 yards Saturday, and now the Gators get the unenviable task of shutting down the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy, Alabama’s Derrick Henry.”


ACC Championship Game - North Carolina vs. Clemson (-5.5)


The Tigers (12-0 SU, 5-7 ATS) will try to complete a perfect run and wrap up a playoff berth in the Atlantic Coast Conference final in Charlotte, N.C. Clemson wrapped up the regular season by fending off instate rival South Carolina 37-32, falling far short as a 20.5-point road chalk.


North Carolina has also been stout since suffering a Week 1 loss at South Carolina. The Tar Heels (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) followed by winning 11 in a row SU to reach the ACC final, including a 45-34 victory Saturday as a 3.5-point fave at North Carolina State.


“It’s been a great year for Clemson, and it’s hard to believe they went undefeated with 24 total turnovers. The Tigers escaped on all the close calls, and here they are playing in the ACC championship game and ranked No. 1 in the playoff rankings,” Avello said. “One of Clemson’s weaknesses is its rush defense (130 ypg). It’s imperative the Tigers stop Tar Heels running back Elijah Hood, who’s been on a tear lately.


“I’ll open this game with Clemson around a 5-point favorite, noting that the Tar Heels get a touch of home-field advantage.”


Big Ten Championship Game - Michigan State (-3) vs. Iowa


The Hawkeyes are arguably the biggest surprise of the 2015 season. Iowa (12-0 SU, 7-5 ATS) stayed perfect with a 28-20 victory at Nebraska as a 2.5-point favorite Saturday.


Michigan State suffered its only loss of the season at Nebraska four weeks ago, 39-38 as a 3.5-point chalk. But the Spartans (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) have had a huge bounceback, going 3-0 SU and ATS, including a road upset of Ohio State and a regular-season-ending, 55-16 blowout of Penn State giving 7.5 points at home Saturday.


“At the start of the season, this is not what we envisioned the Big 10 championship would look like,” Avello said of the Michigan State-Iowa matchup, to be held in Indianapolis. “The Hawkeyes, by winning the weaker West Division, will have to prevail over the stronger East Division winner to show they belong in the elite final four.”


Pac-12 Championship Game - Stanford (-4) vs. Southern California


The Cardinal still have an outside shot at the playoff, but would need to beat USC in the Pac-12 title game and see Clemson or Alabama – and possibly both – lose on conference championship weekend. Stanford (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) capped the regular season with a last-second field goal to best Notre Dame 38-36 Saturday giving 4 points at home.
The Trojans (8-4, 6-6 ATS) managed to reach the Pac-12 final after firing coach Steve Sarkisian midseason.
Southern Cal won five of its last six games SU (3-3 ATS), including a 40-21 rout of archrival UCLA on Saturday as a 3-point home chalk.


These two teams met in Week 3, with the visiting Cardinal taking a 41-31 win and cover as a healthy 9.5-point pup. This week’s contest is at Levi’s Stadium, home of the San Francisco 49ers.


“It’s been a challenging year for the Trojans,” Avello said. “They certainly have enough talent to compete for college’s top prize, but inconsistent play, not to mention losing their head coach, did them in early for that goal.


“In that Week 3 meeting, Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan beat USC for the first time in his career. USC quarterback Cody Kessler played very well, but Hogan was better. Both teams are playing very well, except for blemishes against Oregon. Opening Stanford just a touch more than a field goal feels like the right price here.”

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Championship
December 1, 2015




STANFORD CARDINAL (10-2) vs. USC TROJANS (8-4)


Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Stanford -5, Total: 61


No. 9 Stanford meets unranked USC in Saturday’s Pac-12 Championship game.


The Cardinal (10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS) enter this weekend’s conference title game riding high off last Saturday’s thrilling, last-second 38-36 victory over Notre Dame, and will be looking to win their third conference championship in four seasons.


After a rocky start to the 2015 campaign and a mid-season coaching change, the Trojans (8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS) have won five of their past six contests. They beat arch rival UCLA last week 40-21 to secure a first-place finish in the Pac-12 South Division.


Stanford, a small favorite this weekend, upset then-No. 6 USC 41-31 in the earlier matchup this season in Week 3. Dating back to 1992, the Trojans are 13-11 SU against their opponent, though the Cardinal have a 13-10-1 edge ATS.


Bettors looking to back Stanford have several trends in their favor, as the team is 33-17 ATS in road games against good passing teams (250+ passing YPG) since 1992, and 17-4 ATS over the same time period on the road after playing a game where 70+ total points were scored. USC doesn’t have many trends running in its direction, though it is 19-7 ATS on the road off 2+ consecutive Overs since 1992 and 2-1 ATS versus its opponent over the past three seasons.


Stanford’s offense has been consistently prolific this season, scoring at least 30 points in all but one game this season, and averaging 36.9 PPG (20th in FBS) and 438 total YPG of offense (39th in nation). Senior QB Kevin Hogan went 18-of-23 (78%) for 279 yards in his first meeting with USC earlier this season, adding a pair of touchdown throws and 28 rushing yards.


Sophomore RB Christian McCaffrey, the NCAA leader in yards from scrimmage this season, had a relatively quiet game against the Trojans in September, gaining “only” 115 rushing yards on 26 attempts and adding three receptions for 37 yards. RB Remound Wright, the team’s touchdown leader, ran in three touchdowns in that Sept. 19 victory.


Stanford’s key to success this season has been its mastery of game flow – the team holds the ball for an average of 35:19 per contest, and limited USC to just 20:31 of offense earlier this year. The Cardinal defense limits opponents to 23.2 PPG (43rd in FBS), but has shown signs of weakness in recent weeks by giving up 32.0 PPG and 488 YPG in their past three games.


USC has been almost as productive on offense as its opponent, racking up 36.0 PPG (26th in FBS) and 457 YPG (32nd in nation). Senior QB Cody Kessler virtually matched Hogan’s performance in their last match, connecting on 25-of-32 throws (78%) for 272 yards and 3 TD.


Kessler’s primary offensive weapon, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, has been the unrivaled centerpiece of the Trojans offense by tallying more than double the number of receptions (74) as the next highest receiver and leading the team with 10 touchdowns. Smith-Schuster caught eight balls for 153 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinal earlier this year in one of his best performances of the season.


USC’s running game is handled between RBs Justin Davis (140 rush, 776 yds, 5 TD), Ronald Jones (139 rush, 890 yds, 7 TD), and Tre Madden (84 rush, 450 yds, 5 TD).


The Trojans’ defense spots opponents 24.7 PPG (51st in FBS) and 400 total YPG, though they have not performed as well on the road, surrendering 29.6 PPG and 436 total YPG. The squad averages a possession time of 29:49 on defense per game, a stat that will be tested by Stanford.

 

[cloverleaf]

Lots of good stuff CNotes.

Some really good information...Thanks!

 

[CNOTES]

Get the best value betting these college football odds at the right time


The Longhorns are catching Baylor at the perfect time as the Bears are off a 28-21 overtime loss at TCU last week.


Spread to bet now


Temple Owls at Houston Cougars (-6)


Houston opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Temple, and a little money has come in on the underdog pushing the line down to -6 at some sportsbooks. But I expect Houston money to come in later on and push this line back up higher.


Temple does not have the offensive firepower to trade points with Houston. The Owls are only averaging 5.4 yards per play despite playing opposing defenses that are giving up 5.7 yards per play. Temple's defense has good seasonal numbers, but it’s faced an extremely weak slate of opposing offenses. Houston is averaging 42 points per game on 6.4 yards per play. Houston is less than a touchdown favorite with a high octane offense, so lay the points now before the line goes up.


Spread to wait on


Texas Longhorns (+20.5) at Baylor Bears


Baylor was posted as a 20-point home favorite in some spots versus Texas, but now the line is -20.5 and I anticipate it going even higher. The Bears are 9-2 SU and since they’re laying less than three touchdowns, bettors will be inclined to lay the points in this game.


Texas has had another disappointing season, but this is its "bowl game" as the Horns are just 4-7 SU on the year. They’re catching Baylor at the perfect time as the Bears are off a 28-21 overtime loss at TCU last week. This is a huge letdown spot after Baylor's second loss in three weeks will keep them out of the four-team national title playoff. Wait this game out and take Texas plus the points later in the week.


Total to watch


Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (72.5)


This total opened 71 and has already risen to 72.5 or higher in most locations. Southern Miss has played in three straight high-scoring games with 75, 87, and 82 points scored. All three of those games went Over the posted total. Off their recent three games, and against an opponent like Western Kentucky, this figures to be another shootout for the Golden Eagles.


Western Kentucky has an explosive offense that is averaging 44.2 points per game on a whopping 7.3 yards per play. It’s put those numbers up against defenses that allow 29.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. The Hilltoppers are 9-3 to the Over this season. This should be a high-scoring game, so take the Over now before the total goes any higher.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, December 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N ILLINOIS (8 - 4) vs. BOWLING GREEN (9 - 3) - 12/4/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
N ILLINOIS is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 1-1 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 1-1 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, December 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TEXAS (4 - 7) at BAYLOR (9 - 2) - 12/5/2015, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 2-0 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
BAYLOR is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


GEORGIA ST (5 - 6) at GA SOUTHERN (8 - 3) - 12/5/2015, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GA SOUTHERN is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GA SOUTHERN is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GA SOUTHERN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GA SOUTHERN is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
GA SOUTHERN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
GA SOUTHERN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
GA SOUTHERN is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
GA SOUTHERN is 1-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TEXAS ST (3 - 8) at ARKANSAS ST (8 - 3) - 12/5/2015, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS ST is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NEW MEXICO ST (3 - 8) at LA MONROE (1 - 11) - 12/5/2015, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
LA MONROE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
LA MONROE is 1-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


W VIRGINIA (7 - 4) at KANSAS ST (5 - 6) - 12/5/2015, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 82-56 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 82-56 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 113-78 ATS (+27.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 139-102 ATS (+26.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 115-84 ATS (+22.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 110-77 ATS (+25.3 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 82-56 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
W VIRGINIA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS ST is 2-0 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS ST is 2-0 straight up against W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


APPALACHIAN ST (9 - 2) at S ALABAMA (5 - 6) - 12/5/2015, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S ALABAMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
S ALABAMA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
S ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
S ALABAMA is 1-0 against the spread versus APPALACHIAN ST over the last 3 seasons
S ALABAMA is 1-0 straight up against APPALACHIAN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TROY (3 - 8) at LA LAFAYETTE (4 - 7) - 12/5/2015, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAFAYETTE is 1-1 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
LA LAFAYETTE is 2-0 straight up against TROY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SOUTHERN MISS (9 - 3) at W KENTUCKY (10 - 2) - 12/5/2015, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SOUTHERN MISS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
SOUTHERN MISS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
SOUTHERN MISS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
SOUTHERN MISS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TEMPLE (10 - 2) at HOUSTON (11 - 1) - 12/5/2015, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USC (8 - 4) vs. STANFORD (10 - 2) - 12/5/2015, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 2-1 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
USC is 2-1 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


FLORIDA (10 - 2) vs. ALABAMA (11 - 1) - 12/5/2015, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 48-25 ATS (+20.5 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
FLORIDA is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
FLORIDA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
ALABAMA is 1-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 1-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


AIR FORCE (8 - 4) at SAN DIEGO ST (9 - 3) - 12/5/2015, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
SAN DIEGO ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-0 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


N CAROLINA (11 - 1) vs. CLEMSON (12 - 0) - 12/5/2015, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
CLEMSON is 1-0 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 1-0 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MICHIGAN ST (11 - 1) vs. IOWA (12 - 0) - 12/5/2015, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
MICHIGAN ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN ST is 1-0 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN ST is 1-0 straight up against IOWA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Week 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, December 4

8:00 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Bowling Green is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Northern Illinois
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Bowling Green's last 5 games
Northern Illinois is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Bowling Green
Northern Illinois is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games


Saturday, December 5

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 12:00 PM
TEXAS vs. BAYLOR
Texas is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Texas is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games
Baylor is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Texas
Baylor is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 12:00 PM
SOUTHERN MISS vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Southern Miss's last 9 games on the road
Southern Miss is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Western Kentucky's last 7 games
Western Kentucky is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 12:00 PM
TEMPLE vs. HOUSTON
Temple is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Temple is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 2:00 PM
GEORGIA STATE vs. GA SOUTHERN
Georgia State is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Georgia State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ga Southern's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ga Southern's last 5 games

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 3:00 PM
NEW MEXICO STATE vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE
New Mexico State is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New Mexico State's last 12 games
Louisiana-Monroe is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Louisiana-Monroe is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 3:00 PM
TEXAS STATE vs. ARKANSAS STATE
Texas State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Texas State's last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arkansas State's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arkansas State's last 9 games at home

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 4:00 PM
FLORIDA vs. ALABAMA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games when playing Alabama
Florida is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Alabama's last 9 games
Alabama is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 4:30 PM
WEST VIRGINIA vs. KANSAS STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of West Virginia's last 9 games on the road
West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas State's last 9 games
Kansas State is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 5:00 PM
TROY vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Troy's last 5 games when playing on the road against Louisiana-Lafayet
Troy is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana-Lafayette
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 5 games when playing at home against Troy
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Troy

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 7:30 PM
SAN DIEGO STATE vs. AIR FORCE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego State's last 7 games when playing on the road against Air Force
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Air Force
Air Force is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Air Force's last 7 games when playing at home against San Diego State

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 7:30 PM
APPALACHIAN STATE vs. SOUTH ALABAMA
Appalachian State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Appalachian State is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games on the road
South Alabama is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
South Alabama is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 7:45 PM
STANFORD vs. SOUTHERN CAL
Stanford is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Southern Cal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Stanford's last 6 games
Southern Cal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Southern Cal is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Stanford

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 8:00 PM
CLEMSON vs. NORTH CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Clemson's last 8 games
Clemson is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
North Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Clemson
North Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Clemson

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 8:00 PM
NORTH CAROLINA vs. CLEMSON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games when playing Clemson
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

See more trends!
DECEMBER 5, 8:17 PM
MICHIGAN STATE vs. IOWA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State's last 6 games when playing Iowa
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Michigan State's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Iowa's last 6 games when playing Michigan State
Iowa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF


Week 14




Spartans thriving in 'playoff mode'


EAST LANSING, Mich. -- For most of the final month of the season, Michigan State has essentially been in playoff mode. Heading into the Big Ten Championship game, there's no sense in changing things now.


The Spartans reached the Big Ten title game by beating Penn State on Saturday, but from the moment they lost at Nebraska on Nov. 7, there has been no margin for error.


It took a win at home against Maryland followed by one of the most impressive victories from any team in the nation this year – the upset of Ohio State on the road. Then came the blowout of Penn State on Senior Day to set up the meeting with unbeaten Iowa in Indianapolis on Saturday.


The third trip to the Big Ten title game in five years wouldn't have been possible with another loss, so the Spartans will take the same approach this week they have all season.


"We'll treat it like an away game," coach Mark Dantonio said. "We'll do what we do.




Rose Bowl could pass on Big Ten title loser, take Ohio State


The Rose Bowl could pass on the Big Ten title game loser between No. 4 Iowa and No. 5 Michigan State and instead select Ohio State.


If the Big Ten champion finishes in the top four of the College Football Playoff as expected, the Rose Bowl does not have to choose either Iowa or Michigan State.


Rose Bowl management committee chairman Scott Jenkins said Wednesday that the Rose Bowl isn't required to take the next highest ranked Big Ten team behind the conference champion.


By contract, the Rose Bowl is guaranteed the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions, but if one or both of those teams finish in the CFP selection committee's top four, the Rose Bowl will then select a replacement team from the conference.


The No. 6 Buckeyes (11-1) potentially could leapfrog either the Hawkeyes (12-0) or Spartans (11-1) in the rankings for a coveted spot in the Rose Bowl.

 

[CNOTES]

AAC, C-USA Tip Sheet
December 2, 2015




There are two early start matchups start off championship Saturday and the winners in the Conference USA and American Athletic games figure to be the chief contenders for the Peach Bowl slot allocated to the top Group of Five team.


While of lesser importance in the national picture Saturday should start off with two great games, here is a look at the matchups.

Conference USA Championship
Matchup: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Venue: Houchens-Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Kentucky
Time/TV: Saturday, December 5, 12:00 PM ET
Line: Western Kentucky -7½, Over/Under 73½
Last Meeting: 2012, at Western Kentucky (-3) 42, Southern Miss 17

Western Kentucky was the only team to go 8-0 in Conference USA play, taking the West division by beating Marshall for a second straight season and now set to host the conference championship this Saturday. While Marshall was still the division champion last season and seen as a threat this season the ascent to the top of the East for Western Kentucky was not a big surprise returning a lot of experience from a team that went 8-5 last season and a program that has now produced five straight winning seasons.

Louisiana Tech figured to be in line to return to the Conference USA championship game again after losing by three to Marshall in the title game last season. While last season’s runner up Rice struggled this season, Southern Miss was the upstart team in the conference and it was a great turnaround season for the program with a 9-3 campaign coming off just six wins the previous three seasons combined. Last weekend the Golden Eagles won 58-24 in Ruston to be the surprise champions of the West division. That win came as an underdog with big numbers produced but also a 7-1 turnover advantage going in favor of Southern Miss for a bit of a misleading final score.


Southern Miss is the lone charter member of Conference USA that has never left the league. FBS newcomer Charlotte was an original member for other sports but then left for the A-10 for several years before returning and now with a football program as well. All the other original members are elsewhere from a group that included Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, UAB, Memphis, and Tulane although UAB will also be back for football in 2017. The Golden Eagles were routinely among the top teams in Conference USA for much of the league’s existence including a title in 2011 but the rough seasons from 2012-2014 may have actually kept the program from leaving for another league.

After some competitive efforts last season in a 3-9 season, which was actually a second straight season of improvement, many expected that Todd Monken’s team would breakthrough this season but few predicted this type of rise, especially after a 3-3 start to the season. Southern Miss has won six in a row since losing to Marshall and they have covered in all but one of those games, actually out-scoring foes 289-98 in those six games. With a 10-2 ATS mark Southern Miss has become a popular play-on team and they will enter this game with the biggest underdog spread they have faced since playing at Nebraska in September.

This matchup will highlight two highly productive quarterbacks. Sixth-year senior Brandon Doughty won the starting job in 2011 but was often injured and wound up with a total of just 14 completions in his first three seasons on campus. He was granted an exemption for a sixth season and he made the most of it with 4,177 passing yards and 42 touchdowns this season. Those totals are actually both down from last season though he has two games to go and his completion rate has been much higher this season at 72.5%. Western Kentucky had one of the worst defenses in the nation last season forcing Doughty to throw far more often late in games and this year the team has been able to get leads and hold them with a slightly more balanced attack and an improved defense.

Nick Mullens started half of the games for Southern Miss as a true freshman in 2013 and after a season of improvement last year his career took off this season. Mullens doesn’t have the numbers that Doughty has but he has thrown for 35 touchdown passes and he should eclipse 4,000 yards this week and enter next season as one of the league’s higher profile players.

Both offenses have gained over 7.1 yards per play this season and over 519 yards per game this season and this game figures to have the potential to be an entertaining shootout. Both teams have respectable defensive numbers but Conference USA did feature its share of awful teams this season and the schedules on both sides can be scrutinized. Despite the production in the passing game both teams have rushed the ball with success as well with Anthony Wales featuring 933 rushing yards despite only playing significantly in the past seven games for Western Kentucky. Senior Jalen Richard has rushed for over 1,000 yards for the Golden Eagles.

Western Kentucky has won nine consecutive home games while winning S/U in 19 of the last 25 home games, going 15-10 ATS in that run back to 2011. Western Kentucky is on a 9-4 ATS run as a favorite of at least seven points since 2014 but the Hilltoppers are perhaps most remembered for the missed cover in the bowl season last year, having a 49-14 lead entering the fourth quarter and not covering as just a slight favorite with Central Michigan scoring five straight touchdowns but failing going for two and the win with time expired. Second half collapses were the norm for the Hilltoppers last season but the defense improved by 115 yards and 15 points per game this season.

Despite the spread success this season Southern Miss is on just a 15-20 ATS run as an underdog since 2012, though going 4-1 ATS getting points this season. Southern Miss has covered in nine of the last 11 road games but a 2-9 ATS run preceded that stretch. This is just the second ever meeting for these programs with Western Kentucky winning easily at home early in the 0-12 2012 season for the Golden Eagles with a similar spread.

American Athletic Championship
Matchup: Temple Owls at Houston Cougars
Venue: TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Saturday, December 5, 12:00 PM ET
Line: Houston -6, Over/Under 55
Last Meeting: 2014, at Houston (-9) 31, Temple 10

A case might be made for Western Kentucky or San Diego State but the Peach Bowl spot reserved for the Group of Five’s best team seems certain to go to the winner of this game between Temple and Houston, ranked 22nd and 19th respectively in this week’s college football playoff rankings. Both teams had perfect starts to the season to climb into the national consciousness but while this matchup became assumed both teams suffered late season losses and needed to win last week to reserve title game slots.

Temple opened the season with impressive wins over Penn State and Cincinnati and eventually hit 7-0 before losing by just four points hosting Notre Dame. That game seemed to take a lot of out of the Owls with a close call against lowly SMU the next week and then a stunning 44-23 loss to South Florida the next week. Temple managed to win a huge division game with Memphis and then last week beat Connecticut at home to reach 7-1 in league play to hold the East title.

With former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman in his first season as a head coach and taking over a team that was 8-5, expectations were elevated even in a transition season for Houston. It looked like wide open West division and Houston quickly emerged as the team to beat with an upset at Louisville in the second week of the season. The Cougars were untested most of the way but then had three big wins in a row with a shutout out of conference vs. Vanderbilt and then narrow escapes at home vs. Cincinnati and Memphis eventually getting to 10-0. Navy had not lost in AAC play however as the division race was still tight and an upset loss at Connecticut threatened to ruin Houston’s season. Last weekend Houston came up big in the showdown with Navy with a 52-31 result, earning the right to host this title game.

Despite rumors and interest it appears Houston is going to keep Herman as its head coach but certainly there is a distraction risk with a number of calls likely coming his way given the many openings across the nation. The Cougars also looked like a much different team last week with Greg Ward back at quarterback after he played sparingly in the loss to Connecticut. Ward has 16 touchdown passes against just five interceptions and over 2,500 yards passing while also rushing for nearly 900 yards this season, having perhaps his best game last week with the division on the line vs. Navy.

Houston beat Temple in the regular season last year but in this year’s AAC division format the Cougars didn’t play Temple or East runner up South Florida. They did play Cincinnati in a narrow escape for homecoming while also drawing the Connecticut squad that handed the Cougars its only loss. Temple played a tougher non-conference slate with two prominent games and the Owls have one of the most experienced teams in the nation, returning 19 starters at the beginning of the season and loaded with upperclassmen. Regardless of this result Temple will be in its first bowl game since 2011 and head coach Matt Rhule has also been on the radar of some of the bigger programs with job openings after turning the Owls around in three years.

While Ward has been the more dynamic playmaker Temple junior quarterback P.J. Walker is now in his third season as a starter after taking over midway through his true freshman season. Walker was not as much of a rushing threat this season as earlier in this career and while his completion percentage is marginal he did throw for 18 touchdowns this season with just six interceptions. The Owls are led by their defense allowing less than 19 points and 329 yards per game, particularly with some of the best pass defense numbers in the nation led by a veteran secondary.


Houston’s run defense is actually superior to Temple’s on a yards per carry basis as both teams are very difficult to run against. While Houston is known for offense the Cougars are second in the nation in turnover margin at +15 and the program is incredibly +48 in turnovers since the start of the 2013 season for an amazing run that can’t simply be pinned on luck. Last season Houston won 31-10 at home vs. the Owls with a 4-0 turnover edge being the biggest factor with Walker throwing three interceptions including a pick-6 that set the tone early in the game.

Since Rhule took over in Philadelphia Temple is 15-6 ATS as an underdog including winning outright in four of five instances this season. Temple is 12-6 ATS on the road the past three seasons and 12-4 ATS when dogged by six or more points. Since 2006 Houston is 50-13 S/U at home with a 33-25-1 ATS record, going 7-0 S/U at home this season but just 3-4 ATS. Houston is actually just 4-9 ATS in the last 13 instances as a home favorite despite only being upset twice in those games.

 

[CNOTES]

Stars align on defenses in SEC title game
December 2, 2015


The defensive stars will be all over the field, and even on the sidelines , during the Southeastern Conference championship game.


No. 2 Alabama's Jonathan Allen, Reggie Ragland and others will be in the NFL next season. By then, defensive coordinator Kirby Smart could be head coach at his alma mater, Georgia.


The 18th-ranked Gators have NFL-caliber talent on defense, too, entering Saturday's game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, starting with cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III and defensive lineman Jonathan Bullard. They have the confidence to go with that elite talent.


''I expect a dominant performance from our defense,'' Florida cornerback Jalen Tabor said. ''We've got talent at every position and we're coached well at every position, so I expect a lot out of our defense this week.


''Just like any other week, we go into Saturday with the best defense in the nation. We truly believe that.''


Alabama shares that belief about its own defense, powered by a loaded front seven. They're the only two defenses ranked in the Top 5 in total defense, scoring defense and sacks.


What's hard to dispute: They're the two best defenses in the SEC, even if Alabama seems to get most of the attention. It could make points hard to come by in the game, and Florida certainly would favor a low-scoring one to support the Gators' sputtering offense.


To make that happen, Bullard and Co. will have to contain Alabama's bulldozing runner Derrick Henry. The Gators have already faced two of the nation's top tailbacks and not fared well.


LSU's Leonard Fournette finished with 180 yards and two touchdowns. Last week, Florida State's Dalvin Cook gained 183 yards with a late surge that included two fourth-quarter touchdowns.


Now comes Henry, who's one rushing touchdown shy of the SEC single-season record of 23 held by ex-Gators quarterback Tim Tebow.


''They're very fast, very physical and very disruptive,'' Henry said of Florida's defense.


Ditto, Alabama.


Both defenses are aggressive and opportunistic. Led by Cyrus Jones and Eddie Jackson, Alabama's secondary has returned four interceptions for touchdowns, while Florida has done it twice. The Gators have forced a league-high 24 turnovers, one more than the Tide.


They're also the SEC's top two teams in sacks.


Several Tide defenders are projected as potential first-round draft picks including Ragland, junior defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson, defensive tackle Jarran Reed and defensive end Allen.


Stars on both defenses could end up collecting some hardware this month.


Ragland is a finalist for the Butkus Award, Bronco Nagurski Award and Bednarik Award. Robinson is a finalist for the Outland Trophy and Florida's Hargreaves is up for the Jim Thorpe Award.


Florida co-defensive coordinators Geoff Collins and ex-Miami coach Randy Shannon both drew interest for the now-filled UCF head job.


Then there's Smart, whose pairing with coach Nick Saban has led to a string of elite defenses that have been the centerpieces of three national championship teams. He's interviewed for SEC jobs in the past, including Auburn in 2012.


ESPN and the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported late Tuesday night that Smart was Georgia's choice, though university officials haven't confirmed the decision.


Saban gives his longtime assistant top billing for the Tide's defensive success..


''This is Kirby's defense. He's the defensive coordinator,'' he said. ''I try to be a good graduate assistant wherever I can to sort of help him out. It is a system that he grew up in, which is the old system that we played for years and adapted through the years. So he understands it and applies it in the game as well as anyone.''

 

[CNOTES]

Clemson, UNC worried over turnovers
December 2, 2015


CLEMSON, S.C. (AP) Clemson coach Dabo Swinney still can't wrap his head around it: The Tigers routinely lose the turnover battle and yet win the game.


''It's a concern,'' Swinney said. ''The good news is we're 12-0 so we don't have to play perfect to win.''


There been little evidence of perfect play on offense at times for No. 1 Clemson (12-0, No. 1 CFP), which faces No. 8 North Carolina (11-1, No. 10 CFP) for the Atlantic Coast Conference championship on Saturday night.


The Tigers have committed more turnovers than their opponents in six games this year, including the past three weeks. Quarterback Deshaun Watson, tailback Wayne Gallman and receiver Artavis Scott all coughed up the ball against South Carolina to help the hapless Gamecocks score their most points this season in a 37-32 Tigers' win.


But it could catch up with the Tigers.


Swinney knows it's an issue, noting teams that commit two more turnovers than their opponents win just 16 percent of those games.


''It's happened to us six times,'' the coach said of his team beating the odds. ''I don't recommend that.''


Swinney worries a seventh time losing the turnover battle could be costly.


The Tar Heels are tied for 16th nationally in turnover margin coming into the title game. They went three straight games at one point this season - coinciding with wins at Pittsburgh along with home routs of Duke and Miami - without a turnover.


Not that North Carolina has been unaffected by miscues.


It's lone loss, 17-13 to South Carolina in Charlotte to start the season, came in part because of Marquise Williams' three interceptions - two of them coming in the end zone.


The quarterback took full responsibility for the loss, and made a personal pledge.


''I told myself, I'll be back here. It's going to be a special one. That's what I promised myself,'' he said. '''' just tell the guys, `I let you down that first one, but I'm going to get us back and we're going to have some fun during the second one.'''


Only if they, like the Tigers, stop the mistakes.


The Tar Heels lost three fumbles at Virginia Tech, which nearly proved costly when they blew a 24-10 fourth-quarter lead before winning in overtime to clinch the Coastal Division crown. They followed that with three more turnovers at rival North Carolina State, which helped the Wolfpack hang around after falling behind 35-7 in the first quarter.


North Carolina coach Larry Fedora has emphasized protecting the ball all season to Williams and the team, preaching the importance of ''100 percent ball security'' and noting that coaches in practice are often yelling at players who aren't in their position group to protect the ball if they notice a concern.


The Tar Heels have turned the ball over 15 times this season while Clemson has had 24 turnover - 10 of those coming the last three games.


The Tigers' problems could come from lack of focus: It's final three opponents in Syracuse, Wake Forest and South Carolina were a combined 10-26 this season.


Clemson has certainly performed better in its biggest games. It created four turnovers while only giving away one in a 24-22 win over Notre Dame. The Tigers were turnover free and forced two against Florida State to clinch the ACC Atlantic.


Watson has made his errors, too, with 10 interceptions, five times as many he threw as a freshman.


Clemson tight end Jordan Leggett said players are drilling on ball protection this week, even doing extra laps if they drop a ball.


''It's almost like muscle memory to try and make us not have that happen,'' Leggett said.


While Swinney is working to eliminate the turnovers, he said several of them come from players seeking extra yards or making that successful play. He can live with those.


''There ain't nothing wrong with that extra want-to or that extra fight,'' he said. ''That's why we're 12-0.''

 

[CNOTES]

AP Source: Miami reaches agreement with Richt to coach Canes
December 2, 2015


CORAL GABLES, Fla. (AP) Mark Richt is going back to where his college career began.


The former Miami quarterback has reached a tentative agreement to be the Hurricanes' next head coach, pending the completion of contract talks, a person with knowledge of the negotiations told The Associated Press. The person spoke Wednesday on condition of anonymity because the deal has not been signed and the university has not announced the hiring publicly.


''Excited about 2016 with Coach Richt,'' Miami running back Mark Walton wrote on Twitter.


Richt spent the last 15 seasons as the head coach at Georgia, averaging nearly 10 wins a season and leading the Bulldogs to a pair of Southeastern Conference championships. He is a South Florida native and played for Howard Schnellenberger at Miami, graduating in 1982 when the Hurricanes were just becoming the program that would win five national championships in a 19-season span.


It's now his job - or, technically, soon will be his job - to get the Hurricanes back to that elite level. Richt takes over a Miami program that hasn't won more than nine games in a season since 2003, and hasn't won a bowl game since 2006.


There's much for Miami to handle in the next couple days, including getting financial parameters with Richt done as well as a budget for a staff. Players had not gotten any official word as of Wednesday evening, largely because the school still did not have a signed deal in hand. Plus, recruiting season is in full swing, and Richt would have to be cleared by Miami's compliance office before he can represent the institution.


Also unclear: If Richt, as had been expected, will coach Georgia in its bowl game.


Top Miami staff and other coaches had not been informed of the hire Wednesday night, largely because of the incomplete details. Asked if she was excited about what may transpire in the coming days, Miami women's basketball coach Katie Meier said ''I hope to be'' after her team beat Illinois to move to 8-0 on the season.


Miami has had some of the remaining members of former coach Al Golden's staff on the road recruiting this week, and some were at the home of top quarterback recruit Jack Allison when they were informed of Richt's decision to move forward with Miami. It's yet to be decided how many, if any, current members of Miami's staff or the assistants who worked with Richt at Georgia will be with him in 2016.


But Richt tipped his hand earlier this week, at his final Georgia news conference, that if he coached again he'd want to resume playcalling.


''If and when I do coach again, I'm looking forward to coaching again in terms of being more hands-on,'' Richt said at his farewell news conference from Georgia, where he won 145 games. ''I miss coaching quarterbacks, I miss calling plays, I miss that part of it. Whether it's in the role of head coach, coordinator, quarterbacks coach, whatever it is.''


He'll have a big-time quarterback to work with at Miami, where sophomore Brad Kaaya is already among the school's all-time leaders in plenty of categories.


Richt was mentioned as a potential fit for Miami almost as soon as the Hurricanes fired Golden in October, with five games left on this year's regular-season schedule and one day after the Hurricanes endured the worst loss in school history - a 58-0 defeat to Clemson.


The Hurricanes finished the regular season 4-1 under interim coach Larry Scott, who is still slated to coach Miami's bowl game. The Hurricanes are not expected to learn their postseason destination before Sunday, but the Pinstripe Bowl is a top choice of Miami's players.


''We need to finish this strong for coach Scott,'' Miami offensive lineman Hunter Knighton said Wednesday. ''And we want to be the team that wins a bowl game again.''


When it became known that Richt and Georgia were parting ways, speculation immediately centered on him being Miami's front-runner even though other candidates were in the mix. Many fans campaigned for months with hope that Miami would hire Butch Davis, who left the school in 2000 and went 52-59 in his subsequent stops with the Cleveland Browns and North Carolina.


Other names were mentioned, including Mississippi State's Dan Mullen and former Rutgers coach Greg Schiano. Among some trustees not directly involved in the search process, Scott had some support as well.


But in the end, it was Richt - who earlier this week suggested that he might not coach again.


Miami didn't need long to change his mind.

 

[CNOTES]

QBs Beathard, Cook clash in Big Ten title game
December 2, 2015


IOWA CITY, Iowa (AP) Michigan State senior quarterback Connor Cook has been a star for years, pegged by many as an NFL draft pick.


Iowa's C.J. Beathard spent two seasons as a backup. He's still somewhat unknown outside the Midwest.


Beathard will get his chance to prove he's every bit as clutch as Cook on Saturday in the Big Ten championship game.


Beathard and the fourth-ranked Hawkeyes (12-0, 8-0, No. 4 CFP) face the fifth-ranked Spartans (11-1, 7-1, No. 5) in a virtual play-in matchup for the playoff.


''I've got respect for him. He's a good quarterback,'' Beathard said of Cook. ''He throws the ball really well and he finds his receivers. It's a tribute to him.''


Cook has the superior numbers over Beathard this season, with 24 touchdowns against just four picks. On Tuesday he also beat out Beathard, who has thrown 14 TDs and three interceptions, in a media panel vote for the league's top quarterback.


Cook has a track record of coming up big in the postseason as well. He played in the 2013 Big Ten title game, the 2014 Rose Bowl and the 2015 Cotton Bowl - and won all three.


As a first-year starter three seasons ago, Cook threw for 304 yards and 3 TDs as the Spartans stunned unbeaten Ohio State, knocking the Buckeyes out of the national title game. Three weeks later, Cook's 332 yards and 2 TDs helped Michigan State knock off Stanford in Pasadena.


Cook shook off a pair of picks in the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 1, engineering a 21-0 fourth-quarter rally that beat high-flying Baylor 42-41.


''He throws really accurate balls, and especially in the times when they really need them,'' Iowa linebacker Cole Fisher said.


Cook's career numbers are astounding: 71 TD passes, just 19 interceptions and a 4-1 record against top 10 teams. A win over Iowa would cap a brilliant Big Ten career and put Cook among the best to play in the league in recent memory.


''Going back from 2013, we've won a lot of games. We've played in a lot of big-time games and we've had a lot of great moments,'' Cook said.


The same can't be said for Beathard, a junior who spent 2013 and 2014 as a backup up to Jake Rudock, now at Michigan. Beathard's only postseason exposure came in garbage time of an embarrassing bowl loss to Tennessee a day after Cook took down Baylor.


But since then, Beathard has joined recent Heisman Trophy winners Jameis Winston and Cam Newton in a select group of quarterbacks who've started their careers 13-0. Beathard won at Purdue in his only 2014 start.


Beathard also beat a pair of ranked teams on the road, including a 30-point win at Northwestern when he could barely run because of a groin injury. Beathard is 31 of 47 passing for 436 yards and three TDs in the fourth quarter this season. He also has a pair of fourth-quarter rushing TDs and none of his three picks has come inside an opponent's 20-yard line.


''Very impressed with their quarterback,'' Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio said. ''I think C.J. Beathard makes plays, makes good decisions, obviously hasn't thrown (many) interceptions.''


Dantonio could have just as easily been describing Cook.


In fact, the feeling from both Michigan State and Iowa is that they'll have their hands full Saturday trying to stop quarterbacks who simply know how to win.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Top Action
December 2, 2015




FLORIDA GATORS (10-2) vs. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (11-1)


Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Alabama -17.5, Total: 40


Florida and Alabama will meet once again in Atlanta this Saturday for their 8th SEC Championship matchup.


The 18th-ranked Gators (10-2 SU and 6-5-1 ATS) find themselves in their 11th SEC Championship game since 1992, hoping to erase the memory of their embarrassing 27-2 home loss to Florida State last weekend.


Meanwhile, the 2nd-ranked Crimson Tide (11-1 SU and 7-5 ATS), the defending conference champions, have won nine straight games including a 29-13 victory on the road against rival Auburn last week. The Tide, who are heavy favorites in Saturday’s game, have gotten the better of the Gators over the past few decades, beating them 8-6 SU and 9-4 ATS since 1992 and winning the past four meetings.


The teams last met in September 2014, when Alabama doubled up on Florida to cover the spread 42-21 while limiting its opponent to just 93 passing yards. Bettors can find favorable trends for both teams heading into Saturday. The Gators are 38-17 ATS after a two-game homestand since 1992, and 40-22 ATS over the same period on the road against good passing teams (58%+completion pct). In their opponents’ favor, the Crimson Tide are 32-16 ATS against good passing defenses (allowing 5.75 or fewer YPA) since 1992, and the team is 40-22 ATS after three or more consecutive SU wins under head coach Nick Saban.


Injuries are decimating Florida on both sides of the ball this week. LB Alex Anzalone (shoulder), OL Jordan Sherit (hamstring), DL Andrew Ivie (knee), OL Alex McCalister (foot), WR Raphael Andrades (undisclosed), DB Chris Williamson (back), WR C.J. Worton (undisclosed), DL Taven Bryan (undisclosed), and WR Demarcus Robinson (suspension) are questionable to play Saturday night, while DLs Jonathan Bullard (knee) and Joey Ivie (knee) have been upgraded to probable.


Alabama is relatively healthy, though RB Kenyan Drake (arm) is listed as questionable and LB Denzel Devall (knee), who sustained his injury last week, has been upgraded to probable for Saturday’s game.


For a team competing for a major conference championship, the Florida offense has been well below average this season. The Gators score just 25.2 PPG (92nd in FBS) and have been slipping in recent weeks -- failing to score on offense against Florida State as part of their anemic 15.3 PPG in the past three games.


Sophomore QB Treon Harris has filled in ably, albeit unremarkably, during the back half of the season for starting QB Will Grier, who has been suspended since mid-October. In his turn at the helm, Harris has completed 102-of-190 passes (54%) for 1,365 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions, while adding 193 yards on 73 runs. He struggled last week against the Seminoles though, connecting on 19-of-38 throws (50%) for just 134 yards and no scores.


RB Kelvin Taylor has been the Gators leading scorer this season, finding the end zone 13 times – more than triple the team’s next highest scorers. They have effectively controlled game flow this season, particularly on the road, where they average 34:57 of ball possession per game. Like its Saturday opponent, Florida’s defense has been outstanding this season, giving up just 15.5 PPG (5th in nation) and 283.6 total YPG.


Alabama, which can secure a berth in the College Football Playoff with a win on Saturday, has been formidable on both sides of the ball this season. The team, which averages 34.5 PPG (33rd in FBS) and 421.3 YPG, has been on fire its past three games – upping its points per game to 38.7.


Junior RB Derrick Henry, the leading rusher in the nation with 1,797 yards and 22 TD, has been the centerpiece of the Alabama offense. Henry set a school record in last week’s game against Auburn with 46 rushing attempts, gaining 271 yards along the way, his fourth 200+ yard effort in just six games.


Senior QB Jake Coker has been solid at the helm for the team, connecting on 204-of-312 (65.4%) for 2,285 yards, 15 TD, and 8 INT on the season. Like their opponent, the Crimson Tide have excelled at clock management, controlling the ball for an average of 33:04 per game.


Alabama’s defense has been elite, limiting opponents to just 14.3 PPG (3rd in FBS), including a mere 8.3 PPG over the past three contests, and a scant 246.6 total YPG. The squad has been particularly effective defending the run, giving up just 79 YPG, and allowing only two opponents all season to hit the 100-yard rushing mark.


STANFORD CARDINAL (10-2) vs. USC TROJANS (8-4)


Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Stanford -5, Total: 61


No. 9 Stanford meets unranked USC in Saturday’s Pac-12 Championship game.


The Cardinal (10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS) enter this weekend’s conference title game riding high off last Saturday’s thrilling, last-second 38-36 victory over Notre Dame, and will be looking to win their third conference championship in four seasons.


After a rocky start to the 2015 campaign and a mid-season coaching change, the Trojans (8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS) have won five of their past six contests. They beat arch rival UCLA last week 40-21 to secure a first-place finish in the Pac-12 South Division.


Stanford, a small favorite this weekend, upset then-No. 6 USC 41-31 in the earlier matchup this season in Week 3. Dating back to 1992, the Trojans are 13-11 SU against their opponent, though the Cardinal have a 13-10-1 edge ATS.


Bettors looking to back Stanford have several trends in their favor, as the team is 33-17 ATS in road games against good passing teams (250+ passing YPG) since 1992, and 17-4 ATS over the same time period on the road after playing a game where 70+ total points were scored. USC doesn’t have many trends running in its direction, though it is 19-7 ATS on the road off 2+ consecutive Overs since 1992 and 2-1 ATS versus its opponent over the past three seasons.


Stanford’s offense has been consistently prolific this season, scoring at least 30 points in all but one game this season, and averaging 36.9 PPG (20th in FBS) and 438 total YPG of offense (39th in nation). Senior QB Kevin Hogan went 18-of-23 (78%) for 279 yards in his first meeting with USC earlier this season, adding a pair of touchdown throws and 28 rushing yards.


Sophomore RB Christian McCaffrey, the NCAA leader in yards from scrimmage this season, had a relatively quiet game against the Trojans in September, gaining “only” 115 rushing yards on 26 attempts and adding three receptions for 37 yards. RB Remound Wright, the team’s touchdown leader, ran in three touchdowns in that Sept. 19 victory.


Stanford’s key to success this season has been its mastery of game flow – the team holds the ball for an average of 35:19 per contest, and limited USC to just 20:31 of offense earlier this year. The Cardinal defense limits opponents to 23.2 PPG (43rd in FBS), but has shown signs of weakness in recent weeks by giving up 32.0 PPG and 488 YPG in their past three games.


USC has been almost as productive on offense as its opponent, racking up 36.0 PPG (26th in FBS) and 457 YPG (32nd in nation). Senior QB Cody Kessler virtually matched Hogan’s performance in their last match, connecting on 25-of-32 throws (78%) for 272 yards and 3 TD.


Kessler’s primary offensive weapon, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, has been the unrivaled centerpiece of the Trojans offense by tallying more than double the number of receptions (74) as the next highest receiver and leading the team with 10 touchdowns. Smith-Schuster caught eight balls for 153 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinal earlier this year in one of his best performances of the season.


USC’s running game is handled between RBs Justin Davis (140 rush, 776 yds, 5 TD), Ronald Jones (139 rush, 890 yds, 7 TD), and Tre Madden (84 rush, 450 yds, 5 TD).


The Trojans’ defense spots opponents 24.7 PPG (51st in FBS) and 400 total YPG, though they have not performed as well on the road, surrendering 29.6 PPG and 436 total YPG. The squad averages a possession time of 29:49 on defense per game, a stat that will be tested by Stanford.


NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (11-1) vs. CLEMSON TIGERS (12-0)


Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Clemson -5.5, Total: 67.5


Top-ranked Clemson looks to punch its ticket to the national semifinals when it collides with red-hot North Carolina on Saturday night in the ACC Championship Game.


The Tar Heels are sizzling with 11 straight wins (8-3 ATS) since losing the season opener to South Carolina. But while their margin of victory is a hefty +31.7 PPG at home, even with last week's impressive 45-34 road win at rival NC State, they are outscoring opponents by only +4.8 PPG in road/neutral contests.


The Tigers (5-6-1 ATS) haven't lost at all this season, but have dropped four in a row ATS with the closest of those games being a slim 37-32 victory at 20.5-point underdog South Carolina last week. Part of the reason for their struggles against the lines is 10 giveaways over the past three contests.


These conference foes have played just once in the past four seasons, which was a 50-35 Clemson home win when North Carolina was penalized a ridiculous 15 times for 130 yards. The home team has prevailed five straight times in the series (4-1 ATS) but Saturday's game will be at a neutral site in Charlotte.


Both schools have a handful of strong betting trends on Saturday, as the Tar Heels are 14-5 ATS in the second half of the season since 2013, and fall into the category of underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a double-digit conference win going 44-17 ATS (72%) since 1992 when facing an opponent coming off a road game where both teams scored 31+ points. But under head coach Dabo Swinney, the Tigers are 23-10 ATS after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in their previous game and 12-4 ATS on the road after scoring 37+ points in their previous contest.


North Carolina has been rolling on offense all season with 41.2 PPG on 496 total YPG (7.5 yards per play). Although the club scores just 30.4 PPG on the road, it has piled up 42.5 PPG and 501 total YPG in ACC play. The Heels like to play fast, as they have needed only 25:49 per game to amass 230 rushing YPG (6.0 YPC) and 266 passing YPG (9.5 YPA).


Dynamic senior QB Marquise Williams plays a huge role in both of these methods of attack with 2,605 passing yards (9.1 YPA), 18 TD and 8 INT through the air plus 786 yards (6.3 YPC) and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Although Williams had a huge throwing game at Clemson last year with 345 yards (9.1 YPA) and 4 TD passes, he was held to minus-3 yards on the ground.


UNC's big ground gainer that day was RB Elijah Hood, who ran for 71 yards on 13 carries (5.5 YPC) and a touchdown, but those numbers are quite mild compared to what he's done as a sophomore. Hood has increased his season YPC from 3.9 to 6.7 with 1,280 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. He has rushed for more than 100 yards on seven different occasions and is coming off a career-high 220 yards on just 21 carries (10.5 YPC) and two scores at NC State.


While the Carolina offense should be able to put up points, it's not certain the defense can contain Clemson's attack. UNC gives up only 20.7 PPG on 395 total YPG this year, but those numbers have jumped to 27.3 PPG on 447 total YPG over the past three contests. The run-stop unit has been steamrolled for 209 YPG on 4.7 YPC, but the passing defense has been much more sound with allowing 186 YPG on 6.0 YPA and 54% completions. Carolina has also forced 16 turnovers during the past six games and hopes that the Tigers cough up the football at least three more times like it has done for three consecutive games.


Despite Clemson's turnover woes, it is still producing a hefty 37.9 PPG on 502 total YPG this season. While the team is more proficient in gaining yards through the air with 289 YPG (8.5 YPA, 70% completions), the ground game also rolls up 213 YPG on 4.9 YPC.


This great balance is largely a product of QB Deshaun Watson, who has thrown for 3,223 yards (8.7 YPA), 27 TD and 10 TD this season, while also rushing for 756 yards (5.4 YPC) and 9 TD. Watson had a field day against North Carolina last season when he completed 27-of-36 throws for 435 yards (12.1 YPA) and six touchdowns, and picked up 28 yards with his legs. Watson does a great job of progressing through his reads, as four different Clemson receivers have at least 400 yards and 4 TD this season. Sophomore WR Artavis Scott (77 rec, 709 yds, 4 TD) leads this group, and he caught eight passes for 66 yards and a touchdown in last year's win versus the Tar Heels.


To keep defenses honest, the Tigers will lean heavily on RB Wayne Gallman who has carried the football 215 times this season for 1,145 yards (5.3 YPC) and nine touchdowns. In the past nine games, Gallman has rushed for at least 100 yards on seven different occasions, including 102 on 19 carries (5.4 YPC) last week.


The Clemson defense is sometimes overshadowed by the offense, but this unit has been stellar all season in holding opponents to 18.8 PPG on 289 total YPG. As good as the run defense has been in limiting teams to 128 YPG on 3.7 YPC, the Tigers have been outstanding in preventing big plays through the air with only 161 YPG on 5.8 YPA and a meager 47% completion rate for opposing quarterbacks. They are also skilled in taking away the football with 10 forced turnovers in the past six games, and are facing a Carolina offense with three turnovers in two straight contests.


MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (11-1) vs. IOWA HAWKEYES (12-0)


Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan State -3.5, Total: 52.5


A ticket to the College Football Playoff is likely on the line Saturday as Michigan State takes on undefeated Iowa in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis.


The 5th-ranked Spartans (11-1 SU and 5-7 ATS) are riding high into their third conference championship game in five seasons, thanks to a decisive 55-16 victory over Penn State last week.


Meanwhile, the undefeated, 4th-ranked Hawkeyes (12-0 SU and 7-5 ATS) secured a perfect regular season last weekend by grinding out a 28-20 win on the road against Nebraska.


The Hawkeyes, who are slight underdogs on Saturday, have held an edge over the Spartans in recent years – winning 10-7 SU and 12-5 ATS since 1992.


In their last meeting in 2013, Michigan State got the best of its opponent, upsetting Iowa 26-14 while limiting its ground game to just 23 rushing yards. This week, both teams have strong trends running in their favor to cover the spread. The Spartans are 7-0 ATS on the road playing against a top-level team (75%+ win pct.) over the past three seasons and 9-0 ATS after having won four or five of their previous six games in the past two years. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are 8-1 ATS on the road against good offensive teams (scoring 31+ PPG) in the past three seasons and 10-2 ATS away from home against Big Ten opponents over the same time period.


Each school is fairly healthy going into Saturday’s game. FB Trevon Pendleton (leg), who was injured last week, is doubtful to play for Michigan State, while Iowa has no new injuries to report.


Michigan State’s offense has been productive on the season, tallying 33.4 PPG (42nd in nation) while averaging 399.4 YPG.


Senior QB Connor Cook has been the heart and soul of the Spartans’ offensive game, completing 193-of-336 (57.4%) for 2,720 yards, 24 TD, and just 4 INT. Cook was hot against Penn State last weekend, completing 19-of-26 (73.1%) for 248 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.


WR Aaron Burbridge has remained Cook’s primary target throughout the season, catching 74 passes for 1,148 yards and 7 TD. The Spartans’ RB tandem of Gerald Holmes and LJ Scott have split work all season, with each contributing a rushing touchdown last week.


On defense, Michigan State has been impressive in limiting opponents to 21.1 PPG (24th in FBS) and 349.0 YPG. The squad has really been on point the past three weeks, giving up just 12.3 PPG and 279.7 YPG while forcing three turnovers per game.


Iowa’s offense has performed virtually as well as its Saturday opponent, averaging 33.7 PPG (41st in the nation) and gaining 404.2 YPG.


Junior QB C.J. Beathard has been a reliable steward of the team, completing 184-of-303 passes (60.7%) for 2,354 yards, 14 TD and just 3 INT. Beathard had a subdued game last week against Nebraska, going 9-for-16 (56.3%) for only 97 yards and a touchdown.


Most of the Hawkeyes’ points have come on the ground this season, with RBs Jordan Canzeri (176 rush, 964 yds, 5.5 YPC, 12 TD), LeShun Daniels Jr. (127 rush, 592 yds, 4.7 YPC, 8 TD), and Akrum Wadley (69 rush, 449 yds, 6.5 YPC, 7 TD) contributing the bulk of the production, and Beathard adding 82 rushes for 285 yards and six scores.


Canzeri had himself a solid performance last week, running 17 times for 140 yards and a pair of touchdowns. WR Matt VandeBerg has been Beathard’s go-to receiver on the season, earning more than twice as many receptions (59) as any of his teammates (29), though his production has dwindled in his past few games.


Iowa’s defense has been stout this season, ceding just 18.7 PPG (15th in FBS) and 333.6 total YPG. However, unlike its Saturday opponent, the squad has struggled in the past few weeks, surrendering 25.0 PPG and 424.0 total YPG in their past three contests.

 

[mudman]

Lots of great info . Thanks and good luck

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack


NFL trends with Week 13 upon us..........


-- Vikings covered nine of their last ten games.


-- Patriots are 7-0 in game following their last seven losses.


-- Ravens are 2-10-2 vs spread in their last 14 games.


-- 49ers are 0-5 on road (1-4 vs spread), losing by average of 36-14


-- Denver covered nine of last ten as an AFC West road favorite.


-- Falcons are 0-7 vs spread in their last seven games.


**********


Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with the weekend here......


13) We've talked about how fine a line there is between winning and losing in the NFL. here's an example. Mike Smith coached Falcons for seven years; in the first five years, he was 28-11 in games decided by 7 or less points. The last two years, he was 5-11 in games decided by 7 or less, and he got fired.


The bounce of a ball, here or there, an injury or two, an official's call.......


12) NFC East teams are 9-17 vs spread this year in non-divisional games.


11) Jets play a "road game" against the Giants this week; they also played one over in London against the Dolphins, which means they're really playing only six true road games this season, a pretty big advantage in short season of 16 games.


10) Davidson won't retire Steph Curry's number because he hasn't graduated from the school. They had a great player named Mike Maloy in the late 60's; same thing with him, he isn't in the school's Hall of Fame because he didn't graduate.


9) Will Muschamp made $1.6M this year to be the defensive coordinator at Auburn; Tigers are 6-6, Muschamp is trying to get a head coaching job but even if he doesn't get one, it looks like he won't be coming back to Auburn next year. Boosters aren't fond of shelling out huge money when the ballclub goes 6-6.


8) Arizona's big man Kaleb Tarczewski is out 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in his foot, bad news for a thin, inexperienced Wildcat squad.


7) NCAA President Mark Emmert was chancellor at LSU when they signed Nick Saban as football coach in 1999- they gave him $1.2M, a huge amount back then.


6) Pittsburgh Pirates won 98 games this year without one complete game by a pitcher, most wins ever by team without a CG-- previous record was 83 wins.


5) In his last three games, DeAndre Jordan is 17-54 on the foul line. In the game before that, he didn't take a foul shot in 25 minutes; what were the Pelicans thinking?


4) Packers 27, Lions 23-- Green Bay was dead in this game several times, but Detroit wouldn't let them lose. After leading 17-0, Lions gagged game away in epic fashion, as they rushed only three guys on last play, giving Rodgers time to chuck ball down field 62 yards where Richard Rodgers made Motown miserable with the walk-off TD.


3) UCLA 87, Kentucky 77-- Bruins trailed 41-7 at half in LY's game; they led 9-2 in this one and were never headed, as Wildcats lose for first time this year. UCLA is 5-3, from everything we read/hear, there are lot of teams who could win a national title as there are no one or two dominant teams like last year.


2) Jim Boeheim's 9-game suspension starts Saturday-- he is away from the team the whole time, so pushing the suspension up to now is a big help for Syracuse- he'll be back after three ACC games, instead of nine. He'll miss games against stiff teams like Montana State, Colgate, Colgate and Texas Southern and will be back for games against Duke and Notre Dame.


1) Toronto Blue Jays put out their 2016 calendar recently, but one small problem; David Price is on the cover, the same David Price who just signed with the Red Sox for $217M over seven years. Whoops.






Recapping Yesterday's Action:


nfl............................. 2 - 0


nhl............................ 6 - 2


nba............................. 5 - 4


cbb............................. 1 - 6 - 1

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 14


Montana @ North Dakota St

Game 411-412
December 5, 2015 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montana
76.047
North Dakota St
92.022
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Dakota St
by 16
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Dakota St
by 10
52
Dunkel Pick:
North Dakota St
(-10); Over

USC @ Stanford

Game 323-324
December 5, 2015 @ 7:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
USC
101.064
Stanford
104.218
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Stanford
by 3
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stanford
by 4 1/2
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
USC
(+4 1/2); Over

Sam Houston St @ McNeese St

Game 413-414
December 5, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sam Houston St
78.285
McNeese St
74.053
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Sam Houston St
by 4
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
McNeese St
by 4 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Sam Houston St
(+4 1/2); Under

Florida @ Alabama

Game 325-326
December 5, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida
101.274
Alabama
115.666
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alabama
by 14 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 18
40
Dunkel Pick:
Florida
(+18); Under

Northern Iowa @ Portland St

Game 415-416
December 5, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northern Iowa
80.122
Portland St
78.093
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Northern Iowa
by 2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Iowa
by 4
51
Dunkel Pick:
Portland St
(+4); Over

Texas @ Baylor

Game 305-306
December 5, 2015 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas
92.697
Baylor
110.361
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baylor
by 17 1/2
73
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baylor
by 21
67 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas
(+21); Over

Air Force @ San Diego St

Game 327-328
December 5, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Air Force
91.624
San Diego St
94,776
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
by 3
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 5 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Air Force
(+5 1/2); Under

Grambling @ Alcorn State

Game 417-418
December 5, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Grambling
55.542
Alcorn State
60.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alcorn State
by 4 1/2
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alcorn State
by 2 1/2
71
Dunkel Pick:
Alcorn State
(-2 1/2); Under

Georgia State @ Georgia Southern

Game 307-308
December 5, 2015 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia State
72.362
Georgia Southern
96.548
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Southern
by 24
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Southern
by 21
59
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia Southern
(-21); Under

North Carolina @ Clemson

Game 329-330
December 5, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
North Carolina
106.106
Clemson
102.927
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Carolina
by 3
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 5 1/2
68 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
North Carolina
(+5 1/2); Under

Texas State @ Arkansas St

Game 309-310
December 5, 2015 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas State
58.493
Arkansas St
90.335
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 32
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 25
70 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
(-25); Under

Michigan State @ Iowa

Game 331-332
December 5, 2015 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan State
107.789
Iowa
98.687
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan State
by 9
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 3 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan State
(-3 1/2); Over

New Mexico St @ LA-Monroe

Game 311-312
December 5, 2015 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Mexico St
57.121
LA-Monroe
62.549
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA-Monroe
by 5 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA-Monroe
by 3
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Monroe
(-3); Under

William & Mary @ Richmond

Game 401-402
December 5, 2015 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
William & Mary
71.718
Richmond
69.792
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
William & Mary
by 2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Richmond
Pick
56
Dunkel Pick:
William & Mary
Over

West Virginia @ Kansas State

Game 313-314
December 5, 2015 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
West Virginia
102.686
Kansas State
92.560
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
West Virginia
by 10
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
West Virginia
by 6 1/2
58
Dunkel Pick:
West Virginia
(-6 1/2); Under

The Citadel @ Charleston Southern

Game 403-404
December 5, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
The Citadel
72.261
Charleston Southe
70.748
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
The Citadel
by 1 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charleston Southe
by 3
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
The Citadel
(+3); Over

Appalachian St @ South Alabama

Game 315-316
December 5, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Appalachian St
82.102
South Alabama
67.208
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 15
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 18
58
Dunkel Pick:
South Alabama
(+18); Over

Colgate @ James Madison

Game 405-406
December 5, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colgate
50.674
James Madison
75.039
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
James Madison
by 24 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
James Madison
by 20 1/2
68 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
James Madison
(-20 1/2); Under

Troy @ LA-Lafayette

Game 317-318
December 5, 2015 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Troy
70.455
LA-Lafayette
66.029
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Troy
by 4 1/2
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA-Lafayette
by 2 1/2
58
Dunkel Pick:
Troy
(+2 1/2); Over

Chattanooga @ Jacksonville St

Game 407-408
December 5, 2015 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chattanooga
72.451
Jacksonville St
82.845
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville St
by 10 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville St
by 7
49
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville St
(-7); Under

Southern Miss @ Western Kentucky

Game 319-320
December 5, 2015 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Southern Miss
85.986
Western Kentucky
96.465
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Kentucky
by 10 1/2
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 7
74 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Western Kentucky
(-7); Under

Western Illinois @ Illinois State

Game 409-410
December 5, 2015 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Western Illinois
69.934
Illinois State
92.402
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Illinois State
by 22 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Illinois State
by 15 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Illinois State
(-15 1/2); Under

Temple @ Houston

Game 321-322
December 5, 2015 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Temple
92.123
Houston
102.322
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 10
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-6); Over