Cnotes College Football Championship Game News - Notes - Trends - Pick !!

[CNOTES]

Clemson, 'Bama are last teams standing
January 1, 2016


We're down to two.


And, boy, they both look impressive.


Top-ranked Clemson and No. 2 Alabama will face off in the desert for the national championship after dominating wins in the College Football Playoff semifinals Thursday. The Tigers romped in the second half for a 37-17 win over No. 4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, followed by an even more dominating performance in which the Crimson Tide thumped Michigan State 38-0 in the Cotton Bowl.


The Jan. 11 title game in Glendale, Arizona, matches a high-scoring Clemson offense led by quarterback Deshaun Watson against Nick Saban's latest dominating defense at Alabama, which limited the Spartans to 239 yards.


There's another story line to the title game. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is an Alabama alumnus who played on the Tide's 1992 national championship team.


Now, he's going against the greatest coach of this generation. Saban has won three national titles in the last six years at Alabama, to go along with a BCS title at LSU.


Clemson and Alabama will be playing for the first time since 2008, when Alabama won 34-10 in a game that signaled the Tide's return to national prominence under Saban.


That was also a pivotal year for the Tigers. Embattled coach Tommy Bowden resigned after six games, and Swinney - who was in charge of receivers - took over as head coach. Serving at first on an interim basis, he got the job permanently after leading Clemson to bowl eligibility.


Now, he's got the Tigers within one win of their first national title since 1981.


''I knew that we would be here,'' Swinney said. ''It was just a matter of when.''


Alabama is playing for another title after being upset by Ohio State in the semifinals of the inaugural College Football Playoff.


Saban said his team came into this playoff with a different attitude.


''Last year we sort of just participated in the game,'' he said. ''This year, we really wanted to make a statement and do something special.''


These teams have been on a collision course since Clemson and Alabama were ranked 1-2 in the second College Football Playoff rankings. They've held the top two spots since, leaving no doubt they're the best teams in the country.


With Alabama favored by 7 points, Clemson is the underdog for a second straight game. Oklahoma was favored in the Orange Bowl by 4 points.


A look at the semifinals and what to expect heading to the title game:


NO MORE CLEMSONING


A team once known for such inexplicable stumbles that a derisive term was coined for it - Clemsoning - blew out the No. 4 Sooners over the final two quarters after trailing 17-16 at halftime.


Quarterback Deshaun Watson turned in another stellar all-around performance, beating Oklahoma with his arm and his legs. The defense did the rest, shutting down Baker Mayfield and a Sooners offense that was averaging 52 points over its previous seven games.


Clemson (14-0) showed the sort of balance it will need to cope with Alabama's stifling defense, rushing for 312 yards and passing for 218. Watson, who was named the game's offensive MVP, passed for one touchdown and ran for another. Wayne Gallman rushed for 150 yards and a pair of TDs.


''As a unit,'' Watson said, ''it's tough to beat us when we're all on the same page and have each other's back.''


The defense was even more impressive, especially since star end Shaq Lawson was knocked out of the game in the opening minutes with a knee injury. The Sooners (11-2) matched their lowest-scoring game of the season as Baker Mayfield was sacked five times and intercepted twice, finally getting knocked out of the game when he took a blow to the head trying to make a tackle after his second pick.


The Tigers didn't just beat the Sooners.


They beat them up.


Lawson, who intends to turn pro after this season, said he'll be ready to go in his final college game. He was diagnosed with a sprained medial collateral ligament.


''I'm going to be back,'' he vowed.


ROLL, TIDE, ROLL


Alabama looked like a team with no weaknesses against Michigan State.


Jake Coker was nearly perfect for the Tide (13-1). The senior completed 25 for 30 for a career-best 286 yards. Freshman Calvin Ridley was brilliant, streaking by defenders on deep throws and outfighting them on jump balls. He caught eight passes for 138 yards and two TDs.


Jonathan Allen and the ferocious Tide defensive front sacked Connor Cook four times and allowed the Spartans (12-2) only one trip into the red zone - which ended with Cyrus Jones intercepting a pass at the goal line.


Jones added a high-stepping 57-yard punt return touchdown for the Tide, which hardly had to use Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. The big tailback was just a role player against a Spartans defense stacked to stop the run. He finished with 75 yards but did score two touchdowns.


Now, the Tide will try to prevent Clemson from becoming the first team in FBS history to finish 15-0.


''Clemson is a great team, undefeated, a great program,'' Saban said. ''I'm sure our guys will be motivated, trying to do the best they can to play the best they can in the game. It's a great opportunity for them. I'm proud as hell of them to get where they are.''

 

[CNOTES]

Clemson's O-line vs. Alabama's D-front
January 3, 2016


CLEMSON, S.C. (AP) Clemson's offensive line has conquered challenges all season. Its final one - and perhaps biggest - will come in the national championship game against Alabama's dominating defense.


''We've always been a question mark around here,'' Tigers center Jay Guillermo said.


There certainly will be more questions about the line and the top-ranked Tigers (14-0) leading up to their matchup on Jan. 11 in Arizona with the powerful Crimson Tide (13-1), which completely shut down Big Ten champion Michigan State 38-0 in the Cotton Bowl last Thursday night.


No. 2 Alabama held the Spartans to a season-low 239 yards as linebacker Reggie Ragland and defensive end Jonathan Allen had their way Michigan State's offensive line, combining for four sacks and six tackles for loss.


The Clemson offensive line - none who were starters before this year - know they have to fare better, even if there are questions whether they actually can.


''People doubt us all the time,'' Tigers coach Dabo Swinney said. ''Nobody believes in this team except these guys.''


The Tigers' unit is a group that early on didn't look like it could anchor a national championship run.


Of the two returning starters from last season, center Ryan Norton was slowed by an injury and tackle Isaiah Battle left the team for the NFL supplemental draft in the summer.


Clemson had to rely on Guillermo, a junior who had given up football last season because of personal issues, to snap the ball to quarterback Deshaun Watson and a talented, yet at that time, unproven true freshman Mitch Hyatt to protect Watson's blindside.


They managed to answer the challenges 14 straight times.


The group, which also includes guards Eric Mac Lain and Tyrone Crowder and right tackle Joe Gore, gradually gelled and became the engine that drives Clemson's relentless offense.


Watson and tailback Wayne Gallman surpassed 100 yards on the ground in the 37-17 win over Oklahoma at the Orange Bowl and the Tigers finished with 312 yards rushing,


The line helped Watson become Clemson's single-season total yardage leader (4,731) and Gallman gain the most rushing yards (1,482) in school history.


All five of members of the offensive line received honors on one of the three all-Atlantic Coast Conference postseason teams.


''It's been a long journey,'' said Mac Lain, the former tight end who had made only one start before this season.


Watson, who was coming off a knee injury this offseason, remembers the bond he saw growing among the linemen.


''It was just really during summer workouts, all the stuff they did,'' Watson said. ''Just hanging out. You could see the relationship building.''


Once the season began, things did not come so quickly.


The Clemson offense was held to 20 points, its lowest total all year, against Louisville in September then 296 yards, also a season low, a game later against Notre Dame.


But the linemen knew they were close to putting things together.


Clemson has had 10 straight games of 500 yards or more on offense, powering to an undefeated season, an ACC title and the chance to try for the program's first national title since 1981.


''We really had a mentality here of wanting to prove people wrong,'' Guillermo said.


Clemson will do that in a big way if it can hold off the Crimson Tide defense, which limited Michigan State to 29 yards rushing.


Alabama's Allen said the Crimson Tide concentrates on taking away the run so they can get after the quarterback.


''If you stop the run, you get rewarded with pass rushing,'' said Allen, who had two sacks against the Spartans. ''That's just our mentality.''


If Alabama shuts down Clemson's run game, it will go a long way in helping Alabama win its fourth national championship in seven years. The Tigers, however, believe they can slow down the Crimson Tide so Watson and Gallman can make the plays they've made all season.


''We know we're only going to go as far as our offensive line takes us,'' Guillermo said. ''It starts with us putting the game on our back. That's what we want to do.''

 

[CNOTES]

I heard on sportscenter last night that Clemson is having classes this week and alabama does not start classes till after the game.
What's that mean?
Well weeks that you have classes the teams are only allowed 20 practice hours. If the school does not have classes then the team has unlimited practice hours during the week.

Last year Oregon had classes during the week before the game so they were only allowed 20 hours of practice before the game.

Ohio state did not have classes so they had unlimited hours of practice.

The outcome
Ohio state 42
Oregon 20

Now this not good for me cause I've liked Clemson since the game has been set.

This is just information maybe could help someone.

 

[CNOTES]

Bettors buy back Clemson, sharp money moves CFP title game total


With sportsbooks moving Clemson to a touchdown underdog vs. Alabama in the national title game, bettors are starting to buy back the Tigers and the points.


It didn’t take long for sportsbooks to realize that they had greatly underestimated the Alabama Crimson Tide in their College Football Playoff odds. In fact, it took less than 60 minutes of football for books to figure out Alabama was the team to beat, as the Tide demolished Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Eve.


“About two weeks or so before the playoff games, we opened odds on all the potential matchups and had Alabama -4 versus Clemson. It drew zero handle – no one bet it,” Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, tells Covers. “But with Alabama up 31-0 in the third quarter versus Michigan State, we opened Alabama -4.5 (versus Clemson). They (bettors) laid that -4.5, laid -6, laid -6.5 and that’s how we ended up at -7.”


A similar story played out online at Sportsbook.ag, which opened the Crimson Tide as more conservative 6-point favorites. But after thrashing the Spartans in the semifinal, the betting public was in love with Nick Saban’s program and pushed their line toward a touchdown.


“Honestly, we thought using -6 was a bit of an inflated number but it wasn’t inflated enough as money poured in on Alabama,” Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management for Sportsbook.ag, tells Covers. “Looking back, it makes sense as Bama absolutely crushed Michigan State and that crushing was literally happening as we opened the line. As money came in on Alabama, we quickly went to -6.5 and then to -7.”


Once books adjusted the National Championship spread to a touchdown, money started to show up on the underdog from the ACC. According to multiple sportsbooks, Clemson money has started to come in as of midweek and some shops have trimmed half a point off the spread, dealing Alabama -6.5.


According to William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, 61 percent of the betting handle for the January 11 title game is riding on the Crimson Tide with 71 percent of wagers being placed on the SEC power. However, one trend showing up at sportsbooks is moneyline bets being placed on the Tigers, with bettors passing on the points and taking Clemson to win outright at +220.


The total for the National Championship Game has also moved significantly at some sportsbooks, opening as high as 53.5 and drawing one-sided sharp action on the Under since the Alabama-Clemson matchup was made.


“They’ve been betting the Under hard, which makes sense because that (opening) total was too high,” Scott Kaminsky, sportsbook director at TheGreek.com, tells Covers. “We opened 53 and dropped to 50.5. I would have made the total much lower.”


But like most high-profile games, while the sharp money may side with the Under, the betting public is hoping for an exciting high-scoring game, and gravitates toward the Over. This number may not be done moving, with plenty of time for the public to make its opinion felt between Wednesday and Monday night’s kickoff.


“Being a championship game and knowing the betting public is going to get involved in this game in a big way, we opened our total high assuming sharps would bet it Under and the public would bet it Over," says Childs, who opened the total at 53 points. “For now, we’re happy with our action and it’s somewhat balanced with just over 60 percent on the Over. But I do see us having to at least get back to 52 as we get closer to game time.”


The total may not be the only odds looking different come Monday night. The books that are dealing Alabama -6.5 have a feeling they will get back to a touchdown spread with the public pounding the Crimson Tide, after such a dominant display in the Cotton Bowl and the prestige of the SEC – compared to the lack of depth in the ACC.


“You have to think the game will close seven,” says Kaminsky. “Based on Alabama’s performance against MSU, and that I just think the line should be -7. Clemson is good and all, but I think the Alabama defense is the big difference. I think they’ll be able to stop that Clemson offense. Defense is the key when it comes to winning championships and this defense is exceptional.”


Alabama has covered in its last four meetings with ACC schools and is 5-2 ATS in its last seven bowl games. Clemson has covered in four straight postseason games and is 5-2 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests.

 

[CNOTES]

Championship Props
January 5, 2016


The College Football Playoff National Championship kicks off on Monday Jan. 11 from Glendale, Arizona as Alabama and Clemson meet in the finale.


Bettors looking to get down on prop wagers can get their full at Sportsbook.ag.


The major offshore outfit has released early wagers that focus on the games and teams.


Propositions - per Sportsbook.ag


Team to Score First
Alabama -165
Clemson +135


Will Either Team Score in the First 6 Minutes of the Game
Yes -120
No -110


First Score of the Game will be
Touchdown -235
Any Other Score +190


Alabama Total Points
Over 29.5 (-115)
Under 29.5 (-115)


Clemson Total Points
Over 23 (-120)
Under 23 (-110)


Longest Touchdown of the Game
Over 50.5 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-115)


Adjusted Lines
Alabama +3.5 (-400)
Clemson -3.5 (+300)


Alabama 14.5 (+220)
Clemson -+14.5 (-285)


First Scoring Play
Alabama Touchdown 1/1
Clemson Touchdown 2/1
Alabama Field Goal 4/1
Clemson Field Goal 11/2
Alabama Any Other Score 50/1
Clemson Any Other Score 50/1


Double Result
Alabama Half-Time / Alabama Full-Time 2/3
Clemson Half-Time / Clemson Full-Time 7/2
Clemson Half-Time / Alabama Full-Time 6/1
Alabama Half-Time / Clemson Full-Time 8/1
Tie / Alabama Full-Time 10/1
Tie / Clemson Full-Time 18/1


Total Points Scored by Both Teams
50-56 Points 4/1
43-49 Points 5/1
57-63 Points 5/1
92 or More Points 7/1
36-42 Points 15/2
64-70 Points 8/1
29-35 Points 10/1
71-77 Points 10/1
22-28 Points 15/1
78-84 Points 15/1
85-91 Points 18/1
15-21 Points 30/1
00-14 Points 65/1


Margin of Victory
Alabama Wins by 7-10 points 5/1
Alabama Wins by 1-3 points 6/1
Alabama Wins by 22 or more points 6/1
Alabama Wins by 14-17 points 7/1
Alabama Wins by 4-6 points 8/1
Alabama Wins by 11-13 points 8/1


Clemson Wins by 1-3 points 8/1
Alabama Wins by 18-21 points 9/1
Clemson Wins by 7-10 points 13/1
Clemson Wins by 4-6 points 15/1
Clemson Wins by 14-17 points 25/1
Clemson Wins by 22 or more points 25/1
Clemson Wins by 11-13 points 30/1
Clemson Wins by 18-21 points 45/1


Odds Subject to Change - Updated 1.5.16

 

[TheShotDoctor]

So What's Your Pick?
I Read Every Word...Nice Info, But Did You Post Your Play?

**BTW...They Changed That Stupid Practice Rule, Clemson Got The Same Amount Of Practice Time As BAMA**


All The Best
--ShotDoc--

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel

National Championship


Alabama @ Clemson

Game 151-152
January 11, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Alabama
119.203
Clemson
109.311
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alabama
by 10
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 7
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Alabama
(-7); Under




NCAAF
Long Sheet

Monday, January 11

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ALABAMA (13 - 1) vs. CLEMSON (14 - 0) - 1/11/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
CLEMSON is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ALABAMA is 49-26 ATS (+20.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAF
Short Sheet

National Championship

Alabama at Clemson, 8:30 ET
Alabama: 9-1 ATS on road after 5 games where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Clemson: 0-6 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games




NCAAF

National Championship

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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8:30 PM
ALABAMA vs. CLEMSON
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

 

[CNOTES]

Clemson has the one weapon that can expose Alabama in the National Championship

Alabama and Clemson meet for the National Championship in Arizona Monday night. Sportsbooks have the Crimson Tide set as 6.5-point favorites.

Despite what any die-hard Michigan State supporter will tell you in the wake of their program’s 38-0 shellacking at the hands of Alabama just over a week ago, the Crimson Tide are, in fact, beatable.

The major problem incurred by the Spartans during their December 31 Cotton Bowl appearance in Dallas was that they lacked the personnel necessary to exploit Alabama’s most significant point of vulnerability.

But where Michigan State failed, the Tigers should find plenty of success because Clemson’s roster doesn’t contain the same personnel deficiencies that cost the Spartans yet another chance at a National Championship.

With just 15 regular season defeats suffered since Nick Saban’s 2007 arrival in Tuscaloosa, there are very few instances of failure demonstrated by the Crimson Tide with which an opponent can garner usable intelligence. Hell, the Tide have dropped just five regular season matchups over the last five seasons, shrinking the pool even further.

But if you study and analyze each of those five aforementioned losses, a glaring flaw becomes apparent. It’s the type of imperfection that a team like Michigan State could never hope to take advantage of, but a deficiency that a squad such as Clemson is more than capable of exploiting.

If you want to beat the Alabama Crimson Tide, you’re going to need an elusive, mobile quarterback who can make plays with his feet for 60 minutes.

Not exactly the Da Vinci Code-style of revelation capable of sending Tom Hanks scrambling forth to the next clue, but valuable information nonetheless. To begin, let’s take a look at what the opposing quarterback produced with his legs during each of Alabama’s last five regular season losses:

11/5/2011 vs. LSU and Jordan Jefferson: 11 carries, 43 yards
11/10/2012 vs. Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel: 18 carries, 92 yards
11/30/2013 at Auburn and Nick Marshall: 17 carries, 99 yards, 1 touchdown
10/4/2014 at Ole Miss and Bo Wallace: 11 carries, 32 yards
9/19/2015 vs. Ole Miss and Chad Kelly: 8 carries, 21 yards, 1 touchdown

In Alabama’s 58 regular season wins recorded since the start of 2011, the Crimson Tide defense surrendered an average of just 78.8 rushing yards per game. But in those five aforementioned defeats, Alabama permitted an average of 57.4 rushing yards per game to the opposing quarterbacks alone.

And what’s not included in those above totals are the successful downfield passing plays that came as a direct result of the opposing quarterback’s ability to avoid the rush, extend the play and buy a few extra seconds for his receivers to get open down the field.

To further this point, take note that Alabama has recorded at least one interception in 47 of its last 68 regular season games with an average of 1.04 interceptions registered per game over the last five years. But in those five aforementioned losses, the Crimson Tide recorded just two interceptions total for an average of 0.40 INTs per game.

Alabama’s interception totals plummet during losses to mobile quarterbacks because the Crimson Tide’s pass rush is far less effective than it is against statuesque pocket passers like Michigan State’s Connor Cook, who threw two interceptions in last week’s Cotton Bowl.

Enter Clemson quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Deshaun Watson.

Watson, the 6-foot-2, 210-pound sophomore signal-caller out of Gainesville, Georgia, has rushed for over 105 yards in five of his last six contests and absolutely decimated the Oklahoma Sooners on the ground in the Orange Bowl last week with 145 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries while sustaining just one sack in the process.

In addition, Watson has tossed just five interceptions over his last eight outings entering Monday night’s National Championship matchup and has completed a staggering 68.2 percent of his passes through 14 games this season.

And while those numbers may not be enough to tickle your fancy, rest assured that Watson understands exactly what it takes to find success against this Alabama defense, as the Clemson quarterback has spent the last week watching tape of former Texas A&M signal-caller Johnny Manziel’s two outrageously successful performances against Nick Saban’s defensive unit.

Whether or not an elite performance from Watson will be enough to defeat the Crimson Tide won’t be known until late Monday night, but the fact remains that Clemson, unlike Michigan State, boasts the personnel necessary to accomplish such a rare feat.

CURRENT LINES FOR THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Side: Alabama Crimson Tide -7 (with some Alabama -6.5s out there)

Total: 50.5

Percentages: 66% on Alabama, 57% on the OVER

CONVERSATIONS WITH A BOOKMAKER

We spoke with Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, this past week in an effort to gain a better understanding of what has been taking place in the market ever since the opening numbers hit the board.

Where did the Westgate open this game at?

Alabama -7 with a total of 53.5.

Did you take any sharp action early?

We didn’t take anything of note shortly after opening, but the first position the sharps supported was the Under, which forced us to move from 53.5 to its current position of 50.5.

Where do you see these lines closing?

I would think the numbers close in the vicinity of where they currently are, with Alabama -6.5 and some Alabama -7s out there. I also think the total has been driven to its low point and that the public may push it back up to the neighborhood of 51.5.

Which position is the public supporting?

Alabama -6.5.

Which position are the sharps supporting?

Clemson +7.5.

Who do you think wins and covers?

I would have to side with Clemson at +7 or higher. I don’t think there is any value in laying Alabama at its current price.

CONVERSATIONS WITH A SHARP

We spoke with Chris Andrews, a former bookmaker and current handicapper, this past week in an effort to gain an additional perspective of the college football betting market for Monday night’s National Championship showdown between Alabama and Clemson.

Which positions will the sharps be supporting?

Lots of public money, and some sharp money as well, has come in on Alabama, but some pretty big outfit made a play on Clemson at +7 and some additional support has come in on that side as well. I believe that the sharper money will wind up on the underdog, but it will be close. Alabama has plenty of sharp bettors that like them and it’s easy to see why.

Which side do you see the public supporting?

The public will definitely be supporting Alabama.

What’s the key for Clemson to win this game?

Deshaun Watson will have to play huge for Clemson to win. I think the SEC was a bit weak at quarterback this season and Alabama has yet to face a quarterback with Watson’s ability. When Bama faced Ole Miss, Chad Kelly had a pretty solid day against the Crimson Tide defense. I realize that Alabama also had five turnovers in that contest, but Kelly was fantastic. I’m not sure how fair that comparison is, but it is something to hang your hat on if you like Clemson.

What’s the key for Alabama to win this game?

Alabama has to run the ball like they have all year and stop the run on defense. I like to use ratios to evaluate differentials and Bama’s is one of the best I have on record. If the Crimson Tide can maintain that, they will probably win.

Where do you see the side closing at?

I think it closes at Alabama -6.5.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PROPOSITIONS

Courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, here are some National Championship game propositions that caught our attention:

Total rushing yards by Deshaun Watson: 47.5 (-110 both ways)

Watson averaged 73.7 rushing yards per game this season and topped 48 rushing yards in nine of 14 contests. Granted, the Alabama defense is much faster and more disciplined than anything the Heisman finalist has faced this season, but given the Crimson Tide’s recent history against mobile quarterbacks, we’ll side with the Over here.

Total points scored by Clemson: 22.0 (-110 both ways)

The Tigers averaged 38.4 points per game this season and topped 22 points in every contest but one (20-17 win at Louisville on September 17). And yes, while Alabama’s defense is, again, better than anything Clemson has faced to date, take note that in the Crimson Tide’s last five regular season losses to mobile quarterbacks, Bama surrendered 23 or more points four times. We’ll back the Over in this spot.

Longest touchdown of the game: 49.5 yards (-110 both ways)

Just for fun, we’ll side with the Under here, as only two of the last seven National Championship games have featured a touchdown of 50 or more yards.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT SEASON

While the city of Las Vegas has yet to release futures prices on next year’s college football championship, we asked Chris Andrews for some insight as to which teams may offer some value once those numbers hit the board.

“Everyone is already high on the Tennessee Volunteers and I can see why. But many of us, myself included, thought the Vols would be a little better this year. Stanford should be right in the mix again with Christian McCaffrey coming back and Alabama will probably be right there as well, but there’s money to be made on them. Plus, Ohio State and Michigan will be worth a look. If you are looking for a sleeper, Washington might be one. They have a long way to go, of course, but Petersen won with nothing this year. If you were buying stock, Washington would be a buy and hold. Oklahoma State might be one to watch, too, but I don’t know if they would have the ability to win it all.”

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

National Championship

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CFP National Championship Game betting preview: Alabama vs. Clemson
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No. 1 Clemson meets No. 2 Alabama in Arizona with the National Championship on the line. 'Bama is currently a 6.5-point fave.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Clemson Tigers (+6.5, 50.5)

Game to be played at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

Second-ranked Alabama is looking for its fourth national title in the past seven seasons when it faces top-ranked Clemson in the College Football Playoff national championship game at Glendale, Ariz. on Monday. The Crimson Tide reached the title game with a resounding 38-0 victory over Michigan State in the semifinals for their 11th straight victory. The Tigers have won 17 consecutive games dating back to last season and throttled Oklahoma in the second half of their semifinal en route to a 37-17 victory.

Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry of Alabama has rushed for an SEC-record 2,061 yards to go with a conference-tying 25 rushing touchdowns while cementing himself as one of the top running backs in school and SEC history. Clemson sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson finished third in the Heisman Trophy balloting and his multidimensional skills - 3,699 passing yards and 31 touchdowns, 1,032 rushing yards and 12 scores - concern Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban. "Really is probably as fine a dual-threat quarterback as we've played against for a long, long time and certainly does an outstanding job of executing their offense, and there's no question about the fact that he's an outstanding leader as well, because you can see the way the players sort of rally around him," Saban told reporters.

The status of Clemson junior defensive end Shaq Lawson remains unclear after he suffered a sprained MCL in his left knee during the semifinal victory over Oklahoma. Tigers coach Dabo Swinney has stated that he is hopeful that Lawson (team-best 23.5 tackles for losses, including 10.5 sacks) would be able to play, but the NFL-bound Lawson didn't sound as sure when he met with reporters Tuesday. "I probably wouldn't be able to say I can play right now," Lawson said. "I've just got to get comfortable with it. I'm not comfortable with it right now."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Alabama opened the national championship game favored by a converted touchdown. They have then bounced back and forth between -6.5 and -7 since. They are currently 6.5-pooint favorites. The total has been bet down three points since opening at 53.5 and now sits at 50.5. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Alabama - DB T. Brown (out Monday, suspension).

Clemson - S. Lawson (probable Monday, knee), WR D. Cain (out Monday, suspension), PK A. Lakip (out Monday, suspension), TE J. McCullough (out Monday, suspension).

WEATHER REPORT: Indoors.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Sharps and squares are on both sides of spread, but there has been a tad bit more smart money on the underdog than the favorite. Currently, we have about 60 percent of the wagers on Alabama but the money handle is almost dead even. I don’t anticipate us moving off the -7 as kickoff approaches.The under has been hit extremely hard by the steam as we’re down a full three points from the open of 53. This might creep back up to 51 as the public gets more involved on Monday, but it won’t move past that."

ABOUT ALABAMA (13-1, 8-6 ATS, 5-9 O/U): Henry topped 100 yards nine times - and 200 on four occasions - and senior Kenyan Drake (407 yards) is back from a broken arm to provide a nice duo to help take pressure off senior quarterback Jake Coker (2,775 yards, 19 touchdowns). Freshman receiver Calvin Ridley pumped life into the passing game with 83 receptions with 1,031 yards and defensive stalwarts such as junior strong safety Eddie Jackson (team-high five interceptions, two returned for touchdowns), senior middle linebacker Reggie Ragland (team-best 97 tackles) and junior defensive Jonathan Allen (team-high 12 sacks) were among the players that pushed for a higher standard when the Crimson Tide were staggering in September. "I think the early loss to Ole Miss probably did a lot to jilt the attitude of this team in helping them do the things they needed to do, to be what they could be and follow and do the things that were necessary for them to be a good football team," Saban said.

ABOUT CLEMSON (14-0, 7-7 ATS, 5-9 O/U): Swinney grew up in Alabama and played and coached for the Crimson Tide before finding his way to Clemson and finds humor in the irony that he must beat his beloved alma mater to win his first national crown as a head coach. "You go on with your life, and I've been at Clemson 13 years, and I've been trying to get back to the National Championship as a coach for 20-plus years now," Swinney said on a teleconference call. "You know, to have the opportunity to be in my first national championship game as a coach, and it comes against Alabama, I just have to smile at God on that one." Sophomore running back Wayne Gallman set a school-rushing mark with 1,482 yards to go with 12 touchdowns while the Lawson-led defense also features standouts in senior middle linebacker B.J. Goodson (team-best 98 tackles), junior cornerback Cordrea Tankersley (team-leading five interceptions) and junior defensive end Kevin Dodd (nine sacks).

TRENDS:

* Alabama is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC.
* Clemson is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
* Over is 8-2 in Alabama's last 10 bowl games.
* Under is 10-3 in Tigers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: The public is giving the slight edge to the dog here, with 56 percent of wagers on Clemson. As for the total, 62 percent of wagers are on the over.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

National Championship

Alabama won three of last six national titles; they lost 43-37 back on Sept 19 at home to Ole Miss. Clemson hasn't lost; I'm not a fan of giving points to an unbeaten team. SEC teams are 8-2 SU/ATS in bowls this year; over last five years, SEC teams are 8-4 vs ACC teams in bowls, 1-1 this year. Alabama is 4-2 in last six bowls; five of the six games were decided by 14+. Clemson won its last four bowls, all as an underdog, scoring 39.0 ppg in last three- their last national title was in '81, when Bama graduate Ford was the coach. Swinney is also a Crimson Tide alum. Bama allowed 10 ppg in its last seven games, covering five of last six. ACC teams are 4-5 in bowl games this year, 13-18 the last three years.

 

[CNOTES]

Clemson vs. Alabama
January 10, 2016


Alabama will be gunning for its fourth national title during Nick Saban’s nine-year tenure when it takes on Clemson in Monday’s College Football Playoff finals in Glendale, AZ.


As of Sunday afternoon, most betting shops had Alabama (13-1 straight up, 8-6 against the spread) installed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 50.5 points for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Tigers were +220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).


A few books had Alabama favored by 6.5, while many of the others at seven were forcing Clemson backers to lay a -120 price (leaving ‘Bama -7 for even money). For first-half wagers, most spots had the Crimson Tide as a 3.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 25.5 points.


Saban’s squad rolled past Michigan State 38-0 as a 10-point favorite in the CFP semifinals. It was the team’s 11th win in a row and its 10th by a margin of 13 points or more. Seven of ‘Bama’s 13 wins have come against teams that won their respective bowl games.


Jake Coker completed 25-of-30 passes for 286 yards and two TDs without an interception against the Spartans. Derrick Henry rushed 20 times for 75 yards and a pair of scores, while Kenyan Drake produced 60 rushing yards on just four totes.


Freshman WR Calvin Ridley hauled in eight receptions for 138 yards and two TDs. The Alabama defense pitched the shutout and limited Michigan State to only 239 yards of total offense.


Henry won the Heisman Trophy by rushing for 2,061 yards and 25 TDs while averaging 5.7 yards per carry.


Coker has seven TD passes without an interception in the Tide’s last four games. For the season, the transfer from Florida State has completed 67.1 percent of his throws for 2,775 yards with a 19/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Once viewed as the weak link for Saban’s team, Coker has become a strength down the stretch.


Much of that credit has to go to a dynamic set of wideouts led by Ridley, the true freshman who has lived up to his five-star billing and then some. Ridley has a team-best 83 receptions for 1,031 yards and seven TDs. ArDarius has 61 catches for 637 yards and four TDs.


Clemson (14-0 SU, 7-7 ATS) advanced to the finals by outscoring Oklahoma 21-0 in the second half of last week’s 37-17 win in Miami as a 3.5-point underdog. The Tigers hooked up money-line backers with a payout in the +160 range (paid $160 on $100 wagers).


Wayne Gallman led the way with 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. Deshaun Watson rushed 24 times for 145 yards and one TD. The sophomore quarterback threw for 187 yards and another TD.


Artavis Scott had five receptions for 63 yards, while Hunter Renfrow had four catches for 59 yards, including a 35-yard TD grab.


Watson was a Heisman Trophy finalist and first-team All-American selection. The Gainesville, GA., product completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,704 yards with a 31/12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Watson also rushed for 1,032 yards and 12 TDs.


Alabama has the best defensive line in the country and likes to put helmets on the QB. However, Kirby Smart’s unit will face the most athletic signal caller it has seen since losing to Ole Miss and Chad Kelly back in Week 3. Watson’s ability to elude rushers and then make big plays with his legs will be pivotal.


Gallman rushed for a team-high 1,469 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. The sophomore also has 19 catches for 165 yards and one TD.


When last year’s leading receiver Mike Williams went down with a season-ending neck injury in early September, Scott became Watson’s go-to option. Scott, another sophomore like Gallman and Watson, has 89 receptions for 868 yards and five TDs.


Charone Peake has 44 catches for 617 yards and five TDs, while Jordan Leggett has 35 catches for 447 yards and a team-high seven TDs. Deon Cain, who won’t play after being suspended prior to the win over OU, had 34 catches for 582 yards and five TDs.


Alabama has been a single-digit favorite four times this season, going 3-1 ATS. Meanwhile, Clemson’s only underdog spot of the season was in the win over the Sooners.


Clemson is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense (302.0 YPG), ninth against the pass, 18th versus the run and 16th in scoring (20.0 PPG).


Alabama’s defense has allowed more than 17 points just twice – 23 at Texas A&M and 43 vs. Ole Miss. This unit is No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense (13.4 PPG), No. 1 against the run (70.8 YPG), No. 18 versus the pass and second in total defense (256.7 YPG).


Senior LB Reggie Ragland is the catalyst for Alabama’s stop unit. The first-team All-American selection has 97 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, seven passes broken up, six QB hurries and two forced fumbles. Junior safety Eddie Jackson earned third-team All-American honors thanks to 43 tackles, three tackles for loss, one forced fumble, two passes broken up and five interceptions, including a pair of pick-sixes.


Clemson’s defense is led by Shaq Lawson, a first-team All-ACC selection who has 56 tackles, 23.5 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks, one forced fumble and five QB hurries. Junior LB Ben Boulware has 79 tackles, eight tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, two interceptions, 10 QB hurries, seven passes broken up and three forced fumbles.


The ‘over’ is on a 7-3 run in Clemson’s last 10 games and is 8-6 overall. When it has had totals in the 50s, the ‘over’ has compiled a 6-3 mark. The Tigers’ games have averaged combined scores of 58.4 points per game.


The ‘under’ is 9-5 overall for the Tide, 8-3 in its last 11 outings. When it has had totals in the 50s, the ‘under’ cashed at a 4-3 rate in seven such instances. The Tide’s games have averaged combined scores of 47.7 PPG.


There are proposition bets galore all over the board. For instance, gamblers can wager on the player to score the first touchdown of the game.


For this prop, Henry is the +250 ‘chalk.’ The next-shortest odds belong to Ridley (7/1), Scott (10/1), Gallman (10/1), Watson (10/1) and Stewart (12/1). I think Gallman, Watson and Stewart are the best value options.


Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- Ohio State has now lost nine players by early declaration for the NFL Draft.


-- Florida has lost safety Keanu Neal, DE Alex McCalister, CB Vernon Hargreaves III, WR DeMarcus Robinson and RB Kelvin Taylor early to the NFL Draft. The Gators are still awaiting word from safety Marcus Maye and LB Jarrad Davis, who is reportedly having second thoughts on his December statement that he would return for his senior campaign. The Gators have added Purdue QB transfer, Austin Appleby, and also has Luke Del Rio, a transfer from Oregon State (via Alabama) who sat out the 2015 campaign.


-- Tennessee has hired Penn State defensive coordinator Bob Shoop as its new DC.


-- Texas A&M’s former five-star QBs have new homes. Kyle Allen has landed at Houston, while Kyler Murray is now an Oklahoma Sooner. The Aggies have parted ways with offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, replacing him with UCLA OC Noel Mazzone.


-- As expected, Arkansas RB Alex Collins is leaving school early for the NFL.


-- Florida State QB Sean Maguire will undergo ankle surgery and miss spring practice.


-- Ole Miss five-star signee QB Shea Patterson earned MVP honors at Saturday’s U.S. Army All-American Game.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC Divisional Playoff Notes
January 10, 2016


Saturday, Jan. 16


Kansas City at New England (CBS, 4:35 p.m. ET)


Line Movement: The Patriots opened as 5 ½-point favorites and the number dropped to five at a few shops and as low as 4 ½ at others. The total opened as high as 45 ½ and is now sitting at 43 ½ and 43 everywhere as of Sunday morning.


Injuries: Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin (knee) and Patriots WR Julian Edelman (foot) have both been ruled as ‘questionable’ but a lot of preliminary reports believe the Kansas City wide out could be done for the season.


Kansas City Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
New England Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-1-3 ATS


Head-to-Head: Last season, the Chiefs blasted the Patriots 41-14 as 2 ½-point home underdogs in primetime showdown. Many pundits believed New England was done at the time but they silenced everybody by eventually winning the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have won and covered their last six encounters against AFC East foes. New England is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games versus AFC West opponents which includes a run of five straight victories at home.

Playoff Notes: Last Saturday’s playoff win for the Chiefs was the first for the franchise since 1994 and also the first for head coach Andy Reid in Kansas City. Bill Belichick has gone 21-8 in the playoffs with the Patriots. At home, the team has gone 14-3 SU and 8-5-1 ATS during this span while the ‘under’ is 10-7. In the last seven postseason games played at Foxboro, the Patriots are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS with four of the victories come by double digits.


Total Notes: Kansas City has watched the ‘over-under’ go 8-8-1 this season and that includes a 5-3-1 mark on the road. The Chiefs have scored 45, 29, 33, 34, 34 and 30 points in their last six games away from home. New England saw the ‘over’ go 9-7 this season but the total was a stalemate (4-4) at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots averaged 29.1 PPG this season, and 31.6 PPG at home.





Sunday, Jan. 17


Pittsburgh at Denver (CBS, 4:40 p.m. ET)


Line Movement: Sportsbook.ag opened the Broncos as three-point home favorites with a total of 40. The number has jumped up to 5 ½ at this shop. CG Technology in Las Vegas is holding Denver -6 and 5Dimes.eu has Denver -7 (+120) as of Sunday morning.


Injuries: Pittsburgh has three key players knocked up and all are listed as ‘questionable’ for Sunday. QB Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder), WR Antonio Brown (concussion) and RB DeAngelo Williams (ankle). Denver QB Peyton Manning was named the starter for this game after missing six games at the end of the season.

Pittsburgh Road Record: 5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS
Denver Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS


Head-to-Head: The Steelers defeated the Broncos 34-27 in Week 15 and failed to cover as 7 ½-point home favorites. This number closed high but most books had Pittsburgh -6 and -6 ½ prior to the late rush before kickoff. Prior to this result, the most recent meeting between the pair took place in the 2012 season when they squared off against each other twice. Denver won both games at home, 31-19 in the regular season and 29-23 in the playoffs, which was Tim Tebow’s signature win. The Broncos are 7-3 SU and 5-3-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus the AFC North. The ‘over’ has gone 8-2 during this span. Despite beating Denver this season, Pittsburgh is just 5-5 in its last 10 against the AFC West and only 2-7-1 ATS in those games.

Playoff Notes: Including last week’s win over the Bengals, head coach Mike Tomlin is 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in the playoffs for Pittsburgh. The victory at Cincinnati was just the second postseason win for Tomlin away from home. Since Peyton Manning joined the Broncos, the team is 2-3 in the playoffs which includes a pedestrian 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS mark at home. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in those four home playoff games. Denver head coach Gary Kubiak has been to the playoffs four times with the Houston Texans and went 2-2.


Total Notes: The Steelers have watched the ‘under’ go 11-6 this season and that includes a 7-2 mark on the road. Pittsburgh enters this game with a 3-0 ‘under’ streak. Denver has been an ‘under’ (9-6-1) team as well this season, especially at home where it owns a 5-2-1 mark.

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, JANUARY 11


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS




ALA at CLEM 08:30 PM

ALA -6.5 BEST BET


O 50.5 BEST BET