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[CNOTES]

No. 1 Clemson not favored in Orange Bowl as playoff field set


College football’s Football Bowl Subdivision now has the four teams in place for its national semifinal playoff games. And while Clemson is the No. 1 seed, the Tigers aren’t the biggest favorite. In fact, they’re not favored at all.


Rather, it appears oddsmakers and bettors believe No. 2 seed Alabama is the best team in the championship field. Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, installed the Crimson Tide as 8.5-point chalk against No. 3 seed Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium on New Year’s Eve.


Cotton Bowl - Michigan State vs. Alabama (-8.5)


Alabama (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS), the SEC champion, has won 10 in a row SU since a stunning home loss to Mississippi. That includes Saturday’s 29-15 victory over Florida in the conference title game, though the Tide failed to cash as a hefty 16.5-point fave.


“The Alabama offense hasn’t lit it up this year, but it has done enough to win football games while covering the spread in six of the 11 games we booked this year (Charleston Southern excluded),” Avello said. “Quarterback Jake Coker isn’t flashy, but he makes the big play when needed and keeps the turnovers to a minimum.


But Avello isn’t dismissing Big Ten champ Michigan State, by any means. The Spartans (12-1 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) upset Ohio State on the road last month, then got a touchdown in the final minute of the Big Ten title game Saturday to edge Iowa 16-13 and get a push as 3-point chalk. Avello thinks Michigan State might like its draw in the Cotton Bowl.


“This is the type of game the Spartans like to play – a low-scoring, cat-and-mouse, who-can-make-the-least-mistakes type of contest,” he said. “Alabama’s rush defense is the best in the country, and Michigan State’s is seventh. I opened the Tide an 8.5 point favorite, so let’s see where the bettors take the number.”


Orange Bowl - Oklahoma (-3) vs. Clemson


The fourth-seeded Sooners got the oddsmakers’ nod of approval in the other New Year’s Eve semifinal, with Avello making them a 3-point favorite against the only undefeated team in the country. There is no Big 12 championship game, so Oklahoma was off this past weekend, but it has made a statement the past several weeks.


After a shocking loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry, the Sooners (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) went on a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS tear to finish the regular season. Six of those wins were by double digits, and five were flat-out routs, capped by the Bedlam Game at Oklahoma State – a 58-23 beatdown with Oklahoma laying 7.5 points.


Clemson (13-0 SU, 6-7 ATS) hasn’t been quite that impressive on its way to the ACC title, but the Tigers have knocked down everyone the schedule makers have put in front of them. On Saturday, in the conference final, Clemson held off a North Carolina rally for a 45-37 victory to cash as a 6.5-point fave.


“I realize Clemson is the No. 1 seed, but I opened Oklahoma -3,” Avello said, pointing to several factors – including revenge from the 2014 bowl season. “Stronger schedule, more potent offense, program recognition and a 40-6 loss in the Russell Athletic Bowl last year as a 5-point favorite. The Sooners were held to 275 yards of total offense and didn’t score until late in that meaningless bowl game last year. I anticipate a better effort with so much more at stake.”

 

[CNOTES]

Final Four Primer
December 6, 2015


The College Football Playoff Committee had an easy job this year. With Alabama, Clemson and Michigan State taking care of business on Championship Weekend, those conference champions along with Big 12 champ Oklahoma were the obvious choices.


The top-seeded Tigers will take on No. 4 Oklahoma on New Year’s Eve at Sun Life Stadium in Miami at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


Clemson (13-0 straight up, 6-7 against the spread) remained unbeaten with a 45-37 win over North Carolina as a five-point favorite at the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte. Deshaun Watson threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns, in addition to rushing for 131 yards and a pair of scores.


Oklahoma will be seeking to avenge a humiliating 40-6 loss to Clemson as a five-point ‘chalk’ at last year’s Russell Athletic Bowl. The Sooners will bring a seven-game winning streak to South Florida. They have cashed tickets at a 6-1 ATS clip during this roll with six of the wins coming by double-digit margins.


OU will playing in the Orange Bowl for a record 19th time. The Sooners are 12-6 in those previous appearances. They won the national title with a 13-2 win over Florida State in January of 2001, but it lost BCS Championship Games to Southern Cal and Florida later in the decade.


Clemson hasn’t won a national title since 1981 under Danny Ford, while Michigan State hasn’t won it all since 1966.


The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Oklahoma as a three-point favorite with a total of 65. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS as single-digit favorites this year, including a 58-23 win at Oklahoma St. as 7.5-point ‘chalk’ in their regular-season finale.


Dabo Swinney’s squad hasn’t been an underdog yet this season, but it has won outright as a ‘dog in each of its last three postseason games.


The Westgate opened Alabama as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5 points. The total was adjusted to 49 later Sunday afternoon. The Spartans are +300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300).


No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Michigan St. will square off at AT&T Field in Arlington on ESPN at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on New Year’s Eve. These schools have only met once in the 2010 Capital One Bowl in Orlando, where the Crimson Tide cruised to a 49-7 victory as an eight-point favorite. Nick Saban’s team is making its second straight playoff appearance after beating Florida 29-15 as a 17-point favorite in Saturday’s SEC Championship at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.


Michigan State rallied past Iowa for a 16-13 win thanks to a late fourth-quarter drive that covered 82 yards in 22 plays. The Spartans have won outright in nine of their last 13 games as underdogs. Most impressive, they have beaten six of their last seven foes that were ranked in the top five of the national rankings.


Alabama is in search of its fourth national title during Saban’s nine-year tenure.


The semifinal winners will collide for all the marbles on Monday, Jan. 11, in Glendale, Arizona.

 

[CNOTES]

Iowa to face Stanford in Rose Bowl
December 6, 2015


PASADENA, Calif. (AP) Iowa and Stanford barely missed out on the College Football Playoff.


The Rose Bowl is a pretty great place to forget your sorrows.


The Hawkeyes (12-1, No. 5 CFP) will face the Cardinal (11-2, No. 6 CFP) on Jan. 1 in the 102nd edition of the Granddaddy of Them All, Rose Bowl officials announced Sunday.


Iowa and Stanford finished in the final two rankings spots outside the four-team playoff, yet they earned coveted spots in the traditional year-end intersectional matchup between the Big Ten and Pac-12 powers.


''If this is the consolation prize, what a deal it is for both of us,'' Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said.


Even though the Hawkeyes lost their unbeaten season and the Big Ten title game to Michigan State on a late touchdown Saturday night, they still held off Ohio State to earn their first trip to Pasadena since Jan. 1, 1991. Ferentz will cap his 17th season at Iowa with his first Rose Bowl appearance as a head coach.


''This news is good medicine, I think, for all of us, just to ease the tough outcome,'' said Ferentz, the offensive line coach on two Rose Bowl teams at Iowa in the 1980s.


While the Hawkeyes hadn't made the Rose Bowl in a generation, Pasadena has become a second home for Stanford coach David Shaw's improbable Bay Area powerhouse.


The Cardinal earned their third Rose Bowl berth in four years by beating Southern California 41-22 in the Pac-12 title game on Saturday night. Stanford beat Wisconsin three years ago to earn its first Rose Bowl victory since the 1971 season, but lost to Michigan State two years ago.


''We too are excited about going back to Pasadena,'' Shaw said. ''The Rose Bowl people have been phenomenal the times that we've gone. That's a rare occurrence nowadays, but we're looking forward to the week, looking forward to a great game.''


Stanford also had hopes of a playoff spot after finishing the season with big wins over Notre Dame and USC, but conference title game victories by Clemson and Alabama consigned the Cardinal to Pasadena.


Although both football programs date to the 19th century, Iowa and Stanford have never faced each other. Shaw and Ferentz have only a passing acquaintance, but both coaches have watched the other's program occasionally through the season.


''I loved what Iowa did during the course of this year as being one of those under-the-radar teams that kept winning ... and finally people started to notice the phenomenal job that was going on,'' Shaw said. ''I love well-coached teams that fight and scrap and eventually get what they deserve.''


Here are some more things to know about the Rose Bowl matchup:


STANFORD SHOWCASE: Cardinal running back Christian McCaffrey will cap his incredible season with his first appearance in the Rose Bowl game. The 19-year-old sophomore has gained more yards in a season than anybody in the history of college football, breaking Barry Sanders' record while racking up 461 total yards against the Trojans. He also threw a touchdown pass, caught a touchdown pass and rushed for another score. Shaw called McCaffrey ''the best player in the nation. It's not even a debate.''


TRADITION REIGNS: The Rose Bowl prefers a traditional intersectional matchup between the Big Ten and the Pac-12, but college football's shifting postseason landscape has interrupted that tradition six times in the 21st century. After Florida State's blowout loss to Oregon in last season's CFP matchup at the Rose Bowl, everything is back to normal this winter.


STRENGTH ON STRENGTH: While McCaffrey has spent the season running wild behind Stanford's imposing offensive line, Iowa also has a vaunted running game built around four ball-carriers: Jordan Canzeri, LeShun Daniels Jr., Derrick Mitchell Jr. and Akrum Wadley. Canzeri calls them the ''Four Deadly Horsemen.'' The Hawkeyes ran for at least 100 yards in every game this season.


LONG TIME COMING: Although it took 25 years for Iowa to get back to Pasadena, it's been even longer since the Hawkeyes could celebrate a victory. They haven't won the Rose Bowl since Jan. 1, 1959, when the Big Ten champions led by halfback Bob Jeter and coach Forest Evashevski beat California and were named national champions by the Football Writers Association of America. Famed coach Hayden Fry never won the Rose Bowl, losing each of his three Big Ten championship teams' trips to Pasadena before Ferentz replaced him in 1999.


FREQUENT VISITORS: The Pac-12 has sent just three different teams to the Rose Bowl in the past 13 years: USC, Oregon and Stanford, which is making its 15th Rose Bowl appearance. The school hadn't made three Rose Bowl trips in four years since 1933-35, when Stanford played in three straight. Iowa is the seventh different Big Ten team to play in Pasadena in the past 13 years, with Wisconsin and Michigan making three appearances apiece.

 

[CNOTES]

FSU settles for Peach Bowl vs. Houston
December 6, 2015

ATLANTA (AP) Florida State has gotten used to playing for national championships.


Jimbo Fisher considers the Peach Bowl a good consolation prize.


After coming up short in the national race, the No. 9 Seminoles learned Sunday they will face up-and-coming Houston in the New Year's Eve bowl at the Georgia Dome.


Their coach said it's quite an accomplishment considering the inexperience of his team, which had to replace many of the stalwarts from last year's squad, which reached the College Football Playoff on the heels of a national championship run in 2013.


''We've had a tremendous season,'' Fisher said. ''This very young football team has grown all year, gotten better and better and better. To get to a New Year's Six bowl is a great honor for these kids. A tremendous accomplishment.''


It's certainly an accomplishment for No. 14 Houston, which earned a spot in a major bowl as the top-ranked team from the Group of Five conferences. The Cougars won the American Athletic Conference on Saturday, beating Temple in the championship game.


''The guys worked really hard over the last 11 or 12 months to get here,'' rookie coach Tom Herman said. ''As rewarding as winning our conference championship was, the knowledge that the reward extends farther into a New Year's Six bowl game is even that much more gratifying.''


Florida State (10-2, No. 9 CFP) won its first six games and was in the national championship mix until a shocking 22-16 loss at Georgia Tech - the Yellow Jackets' only Atlantic Coast Conference win of the season. The Seminoles were beaten by a 78-yard return of a blocked field goal on the final play of the game.


The other loss was a lot more understandable. Fisher's team fell 23-13 at No. 1 Clemson, which went on to capture the ACC title and earn the top seed in this season's playoff, joined by Alabama, Michigan State and Oklahoma.


''That (Georgia Tech game) was such a tough loss, and a very dynamic way to do it,'' Fisher said. ''We could have pouted, felt sorry for ourselves, or we could learn from it and grow. I think we did. The second half of the season, we played our most complete football, our best football. That's a tribute to our seniors, their leadership, and our young guys for buying into the culture of playing champ football. I'm extremely proud of our guys buying into that.''


Herman, who came to Houston after serving on Urban Meyer's staff at Ohio State, had to persuade his team he could take them to a higher level. The Cougars went 21-17 the last three seasons under Tony Levine, settling for a pair of minor bowl games.


An early win over Louisville helped to win over his skeptical players ''that this staff and this culture and the way we go about our business might actually work.''


---


What to watch for when Florida State takes on Houston:


DYNAMIC WARD: The Cougars are led by quarterback Greg Ward Jr., who has rushed for a team-leading 1,047 yards with 19 touchdowns and passed for 2,589 yards, with 16 touchdowns and just five interceptions. It will be intriguing to see how he performs against the best defense he's seen all year.

COOKING UP YARDS: Dalvin Cook is the player who makes the Seminoles go, running for 18 touchdowns and setting a school record with 1,658 yards on the ground. The Cougars have been stout against the run, surrendering 116 yards per game.


SEMINOLES SIGNAL CALLER: The Seminoles will stick with Sean Maguire as their starting quarterback. He took over when transfer Everett Golson went down with a head injury, and played well enough to keep the job. ''Sean is definitely the starter going in,'' Fisher said. ''We have two excellent quarterbacks. We feel good about both guys.''


BIG STAGE: Houston will be playing in its first major postseason game since the 1985 Cotton Bowl. Herman will have to make sure his team doesn't get overwhelmed by the spotlight, especially facing one of the nation's most storied programs.


STEPPING STONE: Both coaches say a victory in this game would be an important step toward getting the 2016 season off to a good start, but a victory would probably mean more to Houston. ''It would energize our fan base, it would energize the city of Houston. If would give us another feather in the cap of what is already turning into a pretty good recruiting class.''

 

[CNOTES]

Ohio State, Notre Dame to meet in Fiesta
December 6, 2015


GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) The Fiesta Bowl has a strong history of producing marquee matchups, highlighted by the double-overtime thriller between Boise State and Oklahoma in 2007.


This year's game has a chance to be the best of the bunch.


Ohio State and Notre Dame, two teams in the College Football Playoff mix until late in the season, will meet at University of Phoenix Stadium on New Year's Day.


It won't be for a national championship, as both teams had hoped, but it's sure to be one of the most anticipated games of the bowl season.


''Two legendary programs; we have a lot of respect for Notre Dame,'' Ohio State coach Urban Meyer said. ''A great bowl game, too.''


Defending national champion Ohio State (11-1) began the season at No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25 and remained there through the first 10 weeks despite inconsistent play from its two talented quarterbacks.


The Buckeyes were in good shape despite being overtaken by Clemson after the initial playoff rankings were released, remaining in the top four until late in the season.


They just picked the wrong time to lose, falling to Michigan State on a last-second field goal in their penultimate game. That dropped Ohio State in the pecking order of one-loss teams behind playoff teams Alabama, Michigan State and Oklahoma, which all lost earlier in the season.


The Buckeyes still had an outside shot at the playoff heading into the final weekend, but the teams ahead of them all won. Ohio State finished No. 7 in the final CFP rankings, behind fellow one-loss Big Ten teams Michigan State and Iowa.


''This is an exceptional group that came up a few seconds short in a game against a very good team,'' Meyer said.


Notre Dame (10-2) was in strong contention for a playoff spot after winning nine of its first 10 games, its only loss to top-ranked Clemson after failing to convert a game-tying 2-point conversion in the closing seconds.


Beat Stanford on Nov. 28 and the Irish would have had a decent chance at being in the playoff, entering the game No. 6 in the CFP rankings. Instead, they allowed the Cardinal to march down the field for a last-second field goal to end their chances. Notre Dame finished No. 8 in the final CFP rankings.


The late-season letdowns worked out well for the Fiesta Bowl, giving it another must-watch matchup.


''This is an opportunity to play a national championship-caliber of a game, an opponent that is definitely one of the best in the country,'' Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer said.


A few more things to look for in the New Year's Day game:


ELLIOTT RUNS: Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott made headlines for lashing out at Buckeyes coaches after rushing for 33 yards on 12 carries in the loss to Michigan State. He later apologized, but proved to be right about getting the ball the next week, rushing for 214 yards and two touchdowns in a victory over rival Michigan. Elliott was good all season outside of the Michigan State game, tying for second in the FBS with 19 touchdowns and fourth nationally with 1,672 yards rushing. The junior announced he will skip his senior season for the NFL draft, so he'll be motivated to put on a show in his final game.


IRISH INJURIES: Notre Dame came within a couple of last-second plays of a perfect season and did it with a slew of injuries to key players. It started right away, too. Running back Tarean Folston, who led the Irish in rushing last season, tore his right ACL on his third carry of the season against Texas and quarterback Malik Zaire suffered a season-ending ankle injury the next week against Virginia.


QB CAROUSEL: J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones were supposed to give Ohio State one of the best quarterback tandems in the country. It didn't work out that way. Jones led the Buckeyes to last year's national championship after Barrett was hurt and began this season as the starter. He was inconsistent at times and was replaced by Barrett after seven games. Barrett started three of the final four games, missing one while serving a suspension after being arrested on charges of driving while impaired.


IRISH PASSING: Even after losing their starting quarterback, the Irish found a way to come up with big plays in the passing game. Kizer played well in place of Zaire, throwing for 2,600 yards and 19 TDs with nine interceptions, while adding 499 yards and nine TDs rushing. His favorite target was Will Fuller, who caught 56 passes for 1,145 yards and 13 TDs.

 

[CNOTES]

USC, Wisconsin to face off in Holiday Bowl
December 6, 2015


SAN DIEGO (AP) Southern California will make a second straight visit to the Holiday Bowl, where it will play No. 23 Wisconsin on Dec. 30 at Qualcomm Stadium.


USC (8-5) won the Pac-12 South Division before losing to Stanford 41-24 in the conference championship game Saturday night.


The Trojans beat Nebraska 45-42 in last year's Holiday Bowl.


Wisconsin (9-3) was third in the Big Ten West Division. The Badgers are making their 14th consecutive bowl appearance, the longest active streak in the Big Ten and tied for the sixth-longest streak in the country.


The Badgers have the top-ranked scoring defense in the country, allowing just 13.1 points per game.


The Trojans have won five of their last eight games since Clay Helton was named interim head coach on Oct. 12. The school removed the interim tag last week.

 

[CNOTES]

Three teams taking 5-7 records to bowl
December 6, 2015


Nebraska, Minnesota and San Jose State are being rewarded for their work in the classroom, not for what they did on the football field.


They were the three 5-7 teams needed to fill out the record 80 bowl slots, and they found out their destinations Sunday.


Nebraska will play UCLA (8-4) in the Foster Farms Bowl on Dec. 26 in Santa Clara, California. Minnesota is matched against Central Michigan (7-5) in the Quick Lane Bowl on Dec. 28 in Detroit. San Jose State goes across the country to meet Georgia State (6-6) in the Cure Bowl on Dec. 19 in Orlando, Florida.


From 2001 through 2014, a total of four teams went to bowls with losing records.


But this year only 77 teams had at least six victories and a .500 record - the minimum to be eligible for a bowl - so the three 5-7s received bids.


The NCAA approved a plan last week to fill the open slots with five-win teams based on their Academic Progress Ratings for 2013-14, the most recent scores available. Nebraska (985) was tops among those teams and was eager to get a chance to play another game.


Missouri (976) was second in line, but it announced earlier in the week it would not accept a bid at 5-7. Minnesota was next up at 975, tied with San Jose State.


The idea of losing teams going to bowls has been chided by pundits and even some fans of the 5-7 teams. They say if a team can't go .500, it doesn't merit a bowl.


Football Bowl Association executive director Wright Waters said he's happy to see the APR used to fill in the openings.


''It sends a message to teams that says, `Hey, take care of your academics, because it might make a difference down the road,' " Waters said. ''Isn't it wonderful we're rewarding instead of penalizing someone for academics?''


San Jose State was sanctioned for its 888 APR in 2008. Now the Spartans are in a bowl as one of the high-achieving academic teams.


''It's pretty good that if the NCAA had to, on a rare year, dip and take a team from the five-win category, let's reach into the people who are doing it right from an academic standpoint,'' Spartans coach Ron Caragher said.


The value of a bid goes beyond playing another game. The extra practices are huge for 5-7 teams like Nebraska, where first-year coach Mike Riley's team fell well short of expectations.


''The bowl practices and additional game will allow us to continue to build as a program,'' Riley said.


The Foster Farms is among three teams in the second tier of Big Ten bowls and was the last of those to choose. Executive director Gary Cavalli said his bowl could have chosen Nebraska or Minnesota or picked a six-win team from outside the Big Ten.


''Clearly, from the get-go, the decision was to stay with the Big Ten,'' Cavalli said.


Nebraska got the edge over Minnesota because, he said, there is greater interest in the Huskers in the Bay Area and that UCLA is a program with which Nebraska has some history.


By going to the Quick Lane, Minnesota is in a bowl for the fourth straight year. The Gophers will be playing their fifth game under Tracy Claeys, the former defensive coordinator who took over as head coach after Jerry Kill retired for health reasons Oct. 28. Claeys has since been named full-time coach.


''We're playing within the rules. We got chosen at 5-7, and that's the rules that are there,'' Claeys said. ''I'm proud of that and proud of the kids for that.''


San Jose State of the Mountain West Conference slid into the Cure Bowl because the American Athletic Conference couldn't provide a team. All eight AAC bowl-eligible teams were spoken for after Houston made a New Year's Six game (Peach Bowl), and Tulsa went to the Independence Bowl, a secondary AAC partner, because the Southeastern Conference didn't have a team available.


Caragher certainly isn't apologizing for going to a bowl at 5-7. His 2013 team went 6-6 and didn't go to a bowl.


''Life sometimes balances out,'' Caragher said. ''Sometimes things happen in a roundabout way. We were so close on a couple games you could easily flip our record - a two-point loss to BYU, overtime loss to Nevada. I feel like we were right there as a 6-6 or 7-5 team. We came up short.''


It's the second straight year a Mountain West team has gone to a bowl with a losing record. Fresno State was 6-7 after losing the 2014 league title game but was assured a bowl because of a conference rule guaranteeing a bid to a division champion.


The NCAA granted waivers to 6-7 teams in Georgia Tech in 2012 and UCLA in 2011 after both had appeared in their conference's championship games. North Texas in 2001 became the first five-win team to play in a bowl because it was the Sun Belt Conference champion.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Saturday, December 12

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ARMY (2 - 9) vs. NAVY (9 - 2) - 12/12/2015, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) against American Athletic conference opponents since 1992.
ARMY is 13-34 ATS (-24.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 11-34 ATS (-26.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
ARMY is 70-100 ATS (-40.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 151-113 ATS (+26.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 151-113 ATS (+26.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
NAVY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
NAVY is 68-37 ATS (+27.3 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 75-39 ATS (+32.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 34-15 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NAVY is 1-1 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 2-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, December 12

Navy won its last 13 games with Army, but Cadets covered four of last six in this great rivalry. Army lost its last six games vs I-A teams; three of four losses were by 10 or less points- their only I-A win was 58-36 at Eastern Michigan Sept 26. Navy had 5-game win streak snapped in last game, 52-31 loss at Houston; Middies' last three wins are by 23+ points. Navy ran for 374+ yards in four of its last five games. Army is 0-4-2 vs spread in its last six games; Navy is 8-3 vs spread this season.




NCAAF

Saturday, December 12

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Trend Report
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3:00 PM
ARMY vs. NAVY
Army is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Navy
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Army's last 5 games when playing Navy
Navy is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Army
Navy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Army

 

[CNOTES]

Navy QB Reynolds look for sweep of Army
December 9, 2015


ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) When Keenan Reynolds first faced Army, the Navy quarterback couldn't help getting caught up in the enormity of the historic rivalry.


''That was a pretty nerve-racking game. When I think about it, I get nervous again,'' Reynolds recalled this week. ''I was thinking, one or two plays either way and we lose that game.''


Reynolds ran for an 8-yard touchdown with 4:41 left to give the Midshipmen the lead in a 17-13 victory.


''That's something that will stick with me forever,'' he said.


The 2012 season marked the beginning of Reynolds' sensational, record-setting college career. On Saturday, the talented senior hopes to add another milestone to his impressive list of accomplishments: first quarterback to go 4-0 as a starter in the Army-Navy series.


''That would be pretty awesome,'' Reynolds said. ''But it's not going to happen by just showing up.''


No. 21 Navy (9-2) is an overwhelming favorite to beat Army (2-9) for the 14th consecutive season. A victory would enable the Midshipmen to claim the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy, awarded annually to the military academy with the best record in games between Army, Navy and Air Force.


''That's the No. 1 priority,'' Reynolds said.


He intends to play this one with a far more relaxed attitude than in his initial encounter with the Black Knights.


''I'm going to enjoy all the little things about the game - coming out for warmups, going to midfield for the coin toss, that type of stuff,'' Reynolds said.


No matter what happens Saturday, Reynolds will be remembered as one of the finest quarterbacks in Naval Academy history. His 83 rushing touchdowns are the most ever among Football Bowl Subdivision schools, and his 4,279 yards rushing tops the school's career list. He can throw, too - Reynolds needs only 36 yards passing to become the first Navy quarterback to rush and pass for 1,000 yards in two separate seasons.


Reynolds operates coach Ken Niumatalolo's triple-option attack with near-flawless efficiency. When it comes to drawing up a game-plan to beat Navy, nothing is more important than stopping Reynolds.


''Trying to contain him is difficult. Every coach, every defensive staff they face will tell you the same,'' Army coach Jeff Monken said. ''He has a great knack for finding the opening, finding the crease, and then wiggling his way through there and getting a lot of extra yards. That's a unique talent in itself.


''He's as valuable to his team as anybody in the country.''


Especially against Army. In 2013, Reynolds dashed through the snow for 136 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-7 rout. Last year, the 5-foot-11 standout guided the Midshipmen to 17-10 victory.


And now, in his finale against the Black Knights, Reynolds can become the first quarterback to go 4 for 4 in a classic rivalry that began in 1890.


''It's a special opportunity that I've been afforded,'' Reynolds said. ''It's not something I've thought a lot about, but it is pretty cool.''


Reynolds has a 30-13 career record as a starter, and his numbers this year brought his name into the conversation as a potential Heisman Trophy finalist. He didn't make the cut, but no one will argue his stature as the best to play the position at Navy since Heisman winner Roger Staubach in 1963.


''I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed,'' Reynolds said of the Heisman slight. ''But I'm moving on. We've got a big week ahead of us and a lot of play for.''


Pro football isn't in the immediate future for Reynolds, who must serve out his military commitment after Navy faces Pitt on Dec. 28 in the Military Bowl. Staubach, who's gotten to know Reynolds well over the past four years, expects the Tennessee native to be as effective in the service as he is behind center.


''He has that ability, that humility, in addition to that greatness that he has, and I think that balance will make him a great officer,'' Staubach said. ''Whatever he chooses, he's going to be an inspiration to the active service after he graduates.''

 

[CNOTES]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 12


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


NAVY at ARMY 03:00 PM


ARMY +21.5 DOUBLE PLAY


U 50.5 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[indiana]

C/note..........appreciate the info..........like the plays...........good luck today...........indy

 

[CNOTES]

Your welcome indy.................have a great christmas buddy.............cheersgif

 

[CNOTES]

Covers' College Football Bowl Betting Bible: Book I - Capping Thy Coaches


Each college football bowl season, select teams pack their bags and head off for their postseason matchup, giving sports bettors a fresh set of intriguing non-conference competitions. While there is an aura of the unknown when it comes to bowl teams – these programs don’t know much about each other – football bettors can find familiarity – and value – looking for teams in these certain situations.


We break down some of the important factors to figure into your bowl betting this December with our Bowl Betting Bible.


BOOK I: CAPPING THY COACHES


One of the biggest differences between wagering on college and professional sports is the impact of the coaching. In the college ranks, these coaches are the molders of young men and build a program from the bottom up, having a bigger influence on how the game is played. Oddsmakers factor coaching into the lines in college sports more than any other option.


That’s why it’s such a big deal when coaches are swapped out just before bowl season. Whether it be a coach taking a new job and leaving his former team in the hands of his assistants or a team firing its coach just before the postseason and pretty much hoping for the best in the bowl game. Bettors can find added value when handicapping the turnover on the sidelines.


“Teams and players often rally behind a new coach or departing coach, while other times players and teams are disappointed and provide a weak effort,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.


The long-dangling “other shoe” dropped on former Georgia head coach Mark Richt, who was fired following the Bulldogs’ season finale with Georgia Tech. Originally, UGA’s appearance in the Taxslayer Bowl versus Penn State was going to be Richt’s swan song.


However, once job offers started rolling in, Richt stepped down and instead Georgia named receivers coach Bryan McClendon as the interim coach for the bowl game (-6.5). Former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart was hired as the incoming head coach at UGA on December 6.


Richt wasn’t on the market long, accepting the open gig in Miami. The Hurricanes axed head coach Al Golden after their embarrassing 58-0 loss to Clemson in Week 8, putting the program in the hands of assistant Larry Scott for the remainder of the schedule, in which he led “The U” to a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS finish.


Scott will likely not be kept on in Coral Gables, making Miami’s bowl game with Washington State in the Sun Bowl a huge opportunity for him to add to his resume. His players will be playing for pride and for their interim head coach, who won them over in the home stretch of the season. The Hurricanes are 3-point underdogs versus the Cougars on December 26.


Another ACC school going all out in bowl season for its departing coach is Virginia Tech, which will replace long-time head coach Frank Beamer with former Memphis coach Justin Fuente next season. Beamer’s final game on the sidelines – after 29 years with the program – will be the Independence Bowl where Virginia Tech is a 13.5-point favorite over Tulsa on December 26.


Beamer, who has led the Hokies to 23 straight bowl appearances, will get the best from his players and a loyal following of VT fans, who are known for making the trip to wherever the team is playing come the postseason, will flock to Shreveport, Louisiana to bid farewell to “Beamer Ball”.


One team that may be looking forward to the offseason, and not to its upcoming bowl game, are the Auburn Tigers. Auburn has suffered through a 6-6 SU season, going 3-9 ATS. That has rumors flying of top players transferring and has ignited the seat of head coach Gus Malzahn.


His defensive coordinator, Will Muschamp, has left after one season to coach South Carolina, stripping Malzahn of his best assistant heading into Auburn’s meeting with Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl, where oddsmakers have set Auburn as 2.5-point chalk. A loss to Memphis, in what is a bowl game pretty much in Auburn’s backyard, could be the straw that broke the camel’s back for Malzahn and this program.


Another coaching angle football bettors should be cautious of are current head coaches in the running for jobs at bigger programs. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has been mentioned as a replacement for numerous schools, with consideration for jobs at Virginia, Missouri (interviewed) and Rutgers.


How this job search sits with his players and staff heading into the Falcons’ Armed Forces Bowl is yet to be seen? Calhoun could be more focused on landing a big-name gig instead of game planning for California, which recently inked head coach Sonny Dykes – another highly sought-after coach – allowing the Golden Bears to focus on the future. Books have Calhoun and Air Force as 7-point underdogs.


Here are bowl teams with recent changes at head coach: BYU, Toledo, Bowling Green, Memphis, Georgia.

 

[CNOTES]

Three college football bowl bets you shouldn't wait on


With college football bowl season on the way, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at which matchups you should be sooner rather than later, if you want to get the best of the oddsmakers’ lines. Next week, he’ll look at which bowl games you should bet at the last minute.


Las Vegas Bowl: Utah Utes (-2.5) vs. BYU Cougars


Utah currently stands as a 2.5-point favorite over BYU and most books still have that line. But a few have gone to -3 already. I expect this line to hit the key number of three at the majority of sportsbooks, so shrewd bettors should jump on this game now.


Brigham Young is losing head coach Bronco Mendenhall to Virginia, but he will coach the Cougars in this game. However, that's a tricky situation, especially for the players who will be returning to BYU next season. They may tune Mendenhall out, and the distraction is enough to make BYU a fragile team. Utah has no such issues, and they'll come with their best effort against an in-state rival. Bettors should play this game now and take the best of the number.


New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico Lobos (+10) vs. Arizona Wildcats


This line briefly came out with Arizona as a -12.5 to -13 point favorite over New Mexico, but it quickly settled on the current line of -10. This line should eventually tick down below the key number of 10 at some point, so bettors should get on this game now.


New Mexico is essentially playing a home game. The Lobos went 5-2 SU at home this season with one of those losses only coming by seven points. Arizona went 2-4 SU on the road with one of its wins coming by seven points. The Wildcats went 1-4 SU down the stretch while the Lobos went 3-2 SU over their last five games. Take New Mexico now before the line goes lower.


Hawaii Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. San Diego State Aztecs (N/A)


Cincinnati and San Diego State are complete opposites. The Bearcats have a potent offense and a terrible defense. Cincinnati likes to throw the ball a lot. They average 373 passing yards per game. The Aztecs run the ball essentially on every play, averaging 48 rushing attempts per game while running for 235 yards per game.


This total, which has yet to hit the board, will be a difficult one for the oddsmakers to set because of the opposite styles of play. Cincinnati is currently a 1.5-point favorite over San Diego State. That indicates that this total may be shaded to the Over just a bit. Cincinnati to the Over and San Diego State to the Under are correlated in this game.

 

[CNOTES]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 1


SATURDAY, DEC. 19


ARIZONA at NEW MEXICO (New Mexico Bowl)


Lobos in first bowl since 2007. Bob Davie 11-7 last 18 vs. line, also 8-4 last 12 as underdog. Cats have covered just 5 of last 14 on board and just 1-5-1 vs. spread last seven away from Tucson. Rich-Rod 3-6 vs. line in his past nine bowls.


New Mexico, based on team trends.




BYU vs. UTAH (Las Vegas Bowl)


Old rivals have not met since 2013. Utah no covers last three or five of last six this season. BYU 10-5 vs. spread last 15 on board, 3-1 as dog this season. Bronco Mendenhall 6-4 vs. line last ten bowls. Utes are 11-1 SU last 12 bowls dating to the Ron McBride era, with Kyle Whittingham 7-1 SU and 6-2 vs. spread in bowls.


Utah, based on Ute bowl trends.




OHIO vs. APPALACHIAN STATE (Camellia Bowl)


Solich recovered with 8-4 spread mark this season, and he has won and covered two of his last three bowls with Bobcats, though he had dropped three previous bowls with Ohio. Solich 3-1 as dog this season after 3-9 mark getting points past two years. MAC schools recovered for 3-2 bowl spread mark last season after 8-19 vs. line in bowls from 2008-13. App cooled a bit down the stretch with 1-4 spread mark last five after covering 10 of previous 13.


Slight to Ohio, based on recent trends.


SAN JOSE STATE vs. GEORGIA STATE (Cure Orlando Bowl)


GSU was flying down the stretch with wins and covers last four and 6-0-1 vs. spread last seven in 2015. Panthers also 6-0 vs. spread away from home this season. Spartans were 5-1 as chalk TY but are 4-10 vs. spread last 14 away from home (3-3 in role this season).

Georgia State, based on recent trends.



ARKANSAS STATE at LA TECH (New Orleans Bowl)


Ark State has split SU and vs. line its bowl games the past four seasons. Red Wolves were hot down stretch this season, however, with wins and covers last four, 6-1 vs. line last 8, and 8 SU wins in a row. After LY’s 11-3 spread mark, Skip Holtz cooled to 6-6 this season and just 2-4 vs. spread away from Ruston.


Slight to Arkansas State, based on recent trends.




MONDAY, DEC. 21


WESTERN KENTUCKY vs. SOUTH FLORIDA (Miami Beach Bowl)


USF was a pointspread terror this season, covering 10 of 12, with SU wins and covers last four. Taggart facing old employer WKU, where he began his road trend in 2011. Taggart teams are 22-5 vs. spread away from home since 2011. Tops 2-4-1 vs. spread last seven away from home, and Tops 1-3-1 vs. spread last five vs. non-CUSA foes.


USF, based on team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2


TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22


AKRON vs. UTAH STATE (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
Utags have won and covered last three years in bowls, with Matt Wells winning last two. USU did stumble down stretch, however, no covers last four, and 5-7 spread mark was worst since 2011. USU 3-5 as chalk this season. Akron bowling for first time since 2005 and closed this season with a rush, covering last four and seven of last eight.


Slight to Akron, based on recent trends.




TOLEDO vs. TEMPLE (Boca Raton Bowl)
Rockets 8-2-1 vs. line TY, Owls 9-4 vs. spread. Toledo 1-3 vs. line last four bowl appearances. Temple bowling for first time since 2011. Toledo has covered last six away from Glass Bowl. Rockets 10-6-1 vs. spread last 17 vs. non-MAC. American teams 2-4 vs. line in bowls last season.


Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.




WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23


BOISE STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (Poinsettia Bowl)
Boise 5-2 vs. spread last seven bowls though only 1-2 last three. Broncos only 6-5 SU last 11 bowls. Harsin just 6-6 vs. spread this season and 9-9 last 18 on board since mid 2014. NIU 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls but was 9-4 vs. spread this season and is 12-6 as dog since 2010.


Slight to NIU, based on recent trends.




GEORGIA SOUTHERN at BOWLING GREEN (GoDaddy Bowl)
No more Dino Babers for BGSU after big 2015 in which Falcs were 9-3-1 vs. line, and enter bowl with 10-3-1 spread mark last 14. Though Falcs 1-2 SU and vs. line last three years in bowls, 1-5 SU and vs. line last six bowls dating to 2007. Over” 9-4 last 13 since late 2014. Ga Southern making first bowl appearance after covering 8 of 12 this season and 3-1 vs. line against non-Belt foes. Eagles 5-3 as dog the past two seasons.


Slight to Bowling Green, based on recent trends.




THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24




MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN (Bahamas Bowl)
Rick Stockstill 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls with MTSU, though this is only second bowl appearance for Blue Raiders since 2010. MTSU covered last four this season and was 8-4 vs. line in 2015. WMU 7-5 vs. spread in 2015 and 17-8 vs. spread since 2014, though recent bowl history spotty (0-3 SU and vs. line since 2008).


Slight to MTSU, based on recent trends.




CINCINNATI vs. SAN DIEGO STATE (Hawaii Bowl)
Aztecs won last nine SU TY, but were 0-4 vs. spread against non-MW and now 0-6 last six vs. non-MW foes. Rocky Long 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls with SDSU, 2-7 SU and vs. line in bowls in career. Cincy no wins or covers last two bowls, and Tuberville just 1-7 vs. spread last 8 vs. non-American foes.


Slight to SDSU, based on recent trends.




SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26




UCONN vs. MARSHALL (St. Petersburg Bowl)
UConn just 2-4 vs. line away from home TY and 3-8 vs. spread away from Rentsch since Diaco arrived in 2014. Diaco 4-4 as dog TY after 2-7 mark in role in LY’s rough debut. First bowl in five years for Huskies. Herd has won and covered last four bowls since 2009 and is 9-3 its last 12 as chalk away from home.


Marshall, based on team trends.




MIAMI-FLA. At WASHINGTON STATE (Sun Bowl)
Wazzu had covered eight in a row prior to season-ending loss in Apple Cup vs. Huskies in a game minus Luke Falk. Leach 13-7 vs. spread last 20 away from Pullman Canes have lost their last five bowls SU, 1-6 vs. spread last seven bowls. Miami 3-2 as dog in 2015 but was 1-6 in role previous two years.


WSU, based on team trends.




SOUTHERN MISS at WASHINGTON (Dallas Bowl)
USM has covered 10 of first 12 this season prior to CUSA title loss at WKU and was 4-2 as dog in 2015. Also 4-0 vs. spread in non-league games. Petersen 4-3 vs. spread vs. non-Pac 12 since arriving last season in Seattle and is 10-6 vs. line last 16 overall with Huskies.


USM, based on recent trends.




INDIANA vs. DUKE (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)
IU first bowl since 2007. Hoosiers around .500 in most spread categories past few years, though they have covered 4 of last 6 away from home. Cutcliffe winless SU last three years in bowls but has covered last two. Duke no bowl wins SU since the 1954 team beat Nebraska 34-7 in the Orange Bowl. Blue Devils lost and failed to cover four straight down stretch before finale win over Wake Forest. Cutcliffe had been 24-9-1 vs. line in the 34 games prior to late slump.


Slight to Duke, based on extended trends.




TULSA vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Independence Bowl)
Tulsa covered all six games on road this season, and is 9-1 vs. number last 10 away from home. Golden Hurricane also 4-1 SU and vs. line last four bowls (though this is first since 2012 Liberty). Beamer just 7-9-1 vs. line last 17 bowls. Beamer also just 4-9 last 13 as chalk away from home.
Tulsa, based on team trends.




NEBRASKA vs. UCLA (Foster Farms Bowl)
These teams met in 2012-13 with UCLA winning and covering each. Mora has won and covered last two bowls while Huskers have covered last two bowls after dropping previous three SU and vs. number. Mike Riley 5-3 vs. line in bowls with OSU. Riley 3-1 as dog this season and 29-18 as dog since 20008, which includes 1-5 mark LY in role at Oregon State.


Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.






MONDAY, DECEMBER 28


PITT vs. NAVY (Military Bowl)
Pitt 1-3 SU and vs. line last four bowls, though this is Pat Narduzzi’s first bowl as head coach. Panthers were 4-1 vs. spread away this season and 4-2 as dog. Navy has won and covered last two bowls and is 7-3 vs. line last ten bowls since 2004. Mids 12-5 last 17 vs. spread since mid 2014.


Navy, based on team trends.




CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. MINNESOTA (Quick Lane Bowl)
Gophers have lost their last seven bowls SU since 2005, and no covers four of those last five. Though Minn is 10-2 vs. line with Tracy Claeys as coach (counting his interim stint in 2013). Gophers 3-7 vs. line last 10 vs. non-Big Ten. CMU 4-1-1 vs. line in bowls since 2006 under a variety of coaches and is 21-10 vs. spread its last 31 on board. Chips also 10-3 last 13 as dog.


CMU, based on team and bowl trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3


TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29

AIR FORCE vs. CAL (Armed Forces Bowl)
Cal 1-5 vs. line last six this season and has dropped its last pointspread decision of the year a remarkable seven seasons in a row! Bears just 2-4 vs. spread away from Berkeley in 2015 and have not covered a bowl since the 2007 team in this same bowl vs. Air Force. Falcs 13-5-1 last 19 vs. spread and are 8-3 their last 11 as dog. Troy Calhoun 4-1 vs. line last five in bowls.


Air Force, based on team trends.



BAYLOR vs. NORTH CAROLINA (Russell Athletic Bowl)
Art Briles no wins or covers last two years in bowls, and Bears just 6-10 vs. number their last 16 on the board. Heels 8-5 vs. line this season though only 2-3 vs. spread away from Chapel Hill. Larry Fedora no covers last four bowls with USM and UNC.


Slight to North Carolina, based on recent trends.




NEVADA vs. COLORADO STATE (Arizona Bowl)
Pack closed season on 4-0-1 spread run and was 4-1-1 vs. line away from Reno, now 9-3-1 vs. spread away since last season. Pack 2-2 vs. line last four bowls. Rams 2-5-1 vs. spread last 8 away from Fort Collins and have failed to cover in bowls the past two seasons.


Nevada, based on team trends.




TEXAS TECH vs. LSU (Texas Bowl)
TT 10-5 last 15 vs. spread since late 2014 and Kingsbury 9-5 vs. number last 14 as dog, and Tech has won SU in its last four bowls since 2009. Les Miles no covers last four or five of last six bowls, and also no covers last five away from Baton Rouge. Tigers 3-10 vs. spread last 13 as chalk away form home.


Texas Tech, based on team trends.




WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30


MEMPHIS vs. AUBURN (Birmingham Bowl)
Gus Malzahn 2-10 vs. spread this season, , 2-15 last 17 on board, 4-19 last 23 vs. spread since early 2014. Memphis 5-0-1 last six as dog and won and covered its bowl vs. BYU LY.


Memphis, based on recent Auburn woes.




NC STATE vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Belk Bowl)
MSU 2-3 vs. line last five bowls, and Dan Mullen just 9-9-1 last 19 games on board since mid 2014. Wolfpack 0-4 as dog TY though have covered 8 of last 10 away from Raleigh and are 12-6 last 18 on board.


Slight to NCS, based on team trends.




LOUISVILLE vs. TEXAS A&M (Music City Bowl)
Petrino a very middling 13-12 vs. spread since his return to the ‘Ville and just 2-6 vs. spread in bowls during his career (0-4 as bowl dog). Kevin Sumlin 4-1 SU, 3-2 vs. line in bowls, and Ags just 12-21 last 33 vs. spread since early 2013.


Slight to A&M, based on bowl trends.




WISCONSIN vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Holiday Bowl)
Badgers 3-1-1 vs. line last five as bowl dog. Wiscy 11-5 last 16 as dog (though 0-1 TY). Paul Chryst right around .500 in almost all spread categories in his career. Trojans 1-2 vs. line last three bowls, 3-8 vs. points last 11 away from Coliseum.


Wisconsin, based on team trends.




THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31


HOUSTON vs. FLORIDA STATE (Peach Bowl)
Cougs had covered 10 straight and 17 of 18 away from home prior to UConn loss on Nov. 21. Cougs 27-13-1 vs. spread since late 2012. Jimbo no covers last two bowls though Noles did make a pointspread turnaround late in 2015 when covering last five. FSU was 6-16 vs. spread in 22 prior games.


Houston, based on team trends.




MICHIGAN STATE vs. ALABAMA (Cotton Bowl)
Nick Saban beat old employer MSU in 49-7 romp in Capital One Bowl after 2010 season. Nick no wins or covers last two bowls but had won and covered four previous. Tide covered five of six away from Tuscaloosa this season. Dantonio covered 5 of last 7 in 2015 after slow start vs. spread and is 18-7 vs. spread last 25 away from East Lansing. Also 10-1 last 11 as dog. Spartans have also won and covered last five bowls.


Slight to Michigan State, based on team trends.




OKLAHOMA vs. CLEMSON (Orange Bowl)
Rematch of LY's Russell Athletic Bowl won big by Clemson, 40-6. Dabo has won and covered as dog vs. LSU, Ohio State, and OU in bowls the past three years. Dabo 8-4 as dog since 2011., though Clemson was on 4-game spread skid in 2-15 prior to ACC title narrow cover vs. Heels. Stoops 3-2 SU and vs. line last five bowls and covered 6 of last 7 down stretch. Sooners 11-5 vs. number last 16 away from Norman.


OU, based on recent trends.




FRIDAY, JANUARY 1


TENNESSEE vs. NORTHWESTERN (Outback Bowl)
Butch Jones won bowl vs. Iowa LY but that was Vols’ first bowl since 2010, a point when UT had dropped consecutive bowls vs. UNC & VPI. Vols 14-10-1 vs. line last two seasons. Cats were 8-4 vs. number in 2015and covered 4 of 5 away from Evanston in 2015, and Fitzgerald 17-10 vs. spread last 27 away from Ryan Field. Fitz 31-22 as dog since 2008 and 23-10 as dog away from home since 2008.


Northwestern, based on team trends.



FLORIDA vs. MICHIGAN (Citrus Bowl)
Jim McElwain no covers last two this season but was still 8-4-1 vs. line in 2015, upping his spread mark to 29-12-1 since late 2012 at CSU. McElwain also 10-4-1 last 15 as dog. Michigan only 6-6 vs. line this season.


Florida, based on team trends.




NOTRE DAME vs. OHIO STATE (Fiesta Bowl)
First meeting since Fiesta Bowl after 2005 season. Buckeyes have won and covered all three meetings since 1995. Brian Kelly just 1-3 vs. line last four bowls, while Urban Meyer now 9-2 SU and vs. line in bowls (counting title game LY). Brian Kelly 3-0-1 last four as dog but just 2-3-1 vs. spread away from South Bend this season.


Ohio State, based on Meyer bowl trends.



IOWA vs. STANFORD (Rose Bowl)
Hawkeyes covered all six away from Iowa City this season and were 2-0 as dog. Kirk Ferentz 5-2 vs. spread last seven in bowls. Stanford 3-1-1 vs. line last five bowls (2-1-1 for David Shaw) and have covered 12 of last 16 since late 2014.


Slight to Iowa, based on recent trends.




OLE MISS at OKLAHOMA STATE (Sugar Bowl)
Hugh Freeze had won and covered handily in his first two bowls at Ole Miss before debacle LY at Peach vs. TCU. Freeze still 32-18-1 vs. spread since arriving at Ole Miss and 42-20-1 vs. spread in career including 2011 at Ark State. Freeze 12-6-1 vs. line vs. non-SEC since 2012 with Rebs. Gundy just 3-4 vs. line last seven bowls and only 7-8 last 15 as dog.


Ole Miss, based on Freeze trends.




SATURDAY, JANUARY 2


PENN STATE vs. GEORGIA (Taxslayer Gator Bowl)
Penn State 0-5 vs. line away from home this season and just 1-9 last 10 in role, only cover narrowly in bowl vs. BC LY. James Franklin 0-4 as dog this season. Dawgs 2-1 SU and vs. line last three bowls though just 4-7 vs. spread in 2015.


Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.




KANSAS STATE vs. ARKANSAS (Liberty Bowl)
Bill Snyder 24-12 last 36 as dog. Though Cats just 1-4 SU and vs. spread in bowls since his return (including loss to Arkansas in Cotton Bowl after 2011), and K-State 1-8 vs. spread in last nine bowls. Bielema on 17-7 spread run since early in 2014 and covered last four away from home this season.


Slight to K-State, based on Snyder dog trends.




TCU vs. OREGON (Alamo Bowl)
Ducks had won and covered five straight down stretch this season before non-cover in Civil War vs. Beavers. Ducks had won and covered four bowls in a row prior to title loss to Buckeyes last January. Ducks 5-0 vs. points away from home this season, 11-1 last 12 in role. Frogs just 2-4 vs. spread away from Fort Worth this term and had failed to cover five straight bowls prior to LY’s 42-3 romp past Ole Miss in the Peach.


Oregon, based on team trends.




WEST VIRGINIA vs. ARIZONA STATE (Cactus Bowl)
Local edge for ASU in this game played a few miles from home. Sun Devils 1-5 vs. spread last six bowls but only 1-2 of that belongs to Todd Graham. ASU covered last three in 2015 but had dropped 9 of previous 11 vs. number. ASU just 2-8 last 10 vs. line against non-Pac 12 foes. WVU 0-3 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2010 team blew out Clemson in the Orange. Mounties just 3-7 vs. spread last 10 away from Morgantown.


Slight to ASU, based on team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

College Bowl Pick'em
December 16, 2015


The college football Bowl season begins on Saturday Dec. 19 runs through Saturday Jan. 2. This year’s postseason will feature 40 games plus the College Football Playoff championship, which is scheduled for Monday Jan. 11.


During the holiday season, bettors have the opportunity to earn extra cash with "College Bowl Pick ‘em" contests where all you have to do is pick the winner, which isn’t as easy as it looks.


The most popular contest has you picking the winner of all 40 Bowl games and ranking them with confidence, starting with 40 as the most confident pick and counting all the way down to 1 as least confident.


Why is UCLA the top choice on this list? Its opponent, Nebraska finished 5-7 in the regular season, as the Cornhuskers recorded only quality victory by narrowly edging Michigan State in a controversial finish. Yes, the Huskers lost several close games at the end, but they need to travel to northern California to face a Bruins’ squad that is looking to close out the season with a victory after getting pummeled by cross-town rival USC. Nebraska’s defense allowed 402 yards per game as it faces standout quarterback Josh Rosen, who threw for 3,351 yards and 20 touchdowns.


Florida State is ranked second on this list, even though the Seminoles are facing American Athletic Conference champ Houston in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl. One season removed from playing in the college football playoff, the Seminoles seemed forgotten with Jameis Winston headed to the NFL. However, FSU lost only two games this season with the two defeats coming to top-ranked Clemson on the road and losing on a last-second blocked field goal returned for a score at Georgia Tech. Houston is listed as an underdog for just the third time this season, but faced eight teams that finished at 6-6 or worse.


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson also selected a Pac-12 team as his most confident bowl pick of the season, backing Washington against Southern Miss in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, "Washington finished just 6-6 and there are a few bowl games with bigger favorite spreads, but Chris Petersen has a great track record in bowl games and his team responded with dominant wins in the final two weeks of the season to earn this spot. Getting to 6-6 in a season that started with great turmoil was a great accomplishment for the Huskies especially with a schedule that included most of the Pac-12 heavyweights and two bowl teams from the Mountain West. After losing in bowl action last season, this should be a focused team and Washington wound up with elite defensive numbers this season allowing fewer than 18 points per game despite a daunting schedule." The rest of the straight up selections are listed below.


COLLEGE BOWL PICK 'EM STRAIGHT UP


Point Value Bowl Game Matchup Prediction


40 Foster Farms Bowl Nebraska vs. UCLA UCLA Bruins


39 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl Houston vs. Florida State Florida State Seminoles


38 Citrus Bowl Florida vs. Michigan Michigan Wolverines


37 Fiesta Bowl Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Ohio State Buckeyes


36 Independence Bowl Tulsa vs. Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies


35 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Akron vs. Utah State Utah State Aggies


34 Goodyear Cotton Bowl - Semifinal Michigan State vs. Alabama Alabama Crimson Tide


33 Hawai'i Bowl San Diego State vs. Cincinnati San Diego State Aztecs


32 GoDaddy Bowl Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green Bowling Green Falcons


31 Camellia Bowl Ohio vs. Appalachian State Appalachian State Mountaineers


30 St. Petersburg Bowl Connecticut vs. Marshall Marshall Thundering Herd


29 New Orleans Bowl Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech Bulldogs


28 Liberty Bowl Kansas State vs. Arkansas Arkansas Razorbacks


27 Poinsettia Bowl Boise State vs. Northern Illinois Boise State Broncos


26 Military Bowl Pittsburgh vs. Navy Navy Midshipmen


25 Sun Bowl Miami (FL) vs. Washington State Washington State Cougars


24 Quick Lane Bowl Central Michigan vs. Minnesota Central Michigan Chippewas


23 Birmingham Bowl Auburn vs. Memphis Memphis Tigers


22 Heart of Dallas Bowl Washington vs. Southern Mississippi Southern Mississippi Eagles


21 Armed Forces Bowl California vs. Air Force California Golden Bears


20 Boca Raton Bowl Toledo vs. Temple Toledo Rockets


19 Rose Bowl Iowa vs. Stanford Iowa Hawkeyes


18 Miami Beach Bowl Western Kentucky vs. USF South Florida Bulls


17 Russell Athletic Bowl North Carolina vs. Baylor North Carolina Tar Heels


16 Arizona Bowl Nevada vs. Colorado State Colorado State Rams


15 Capital One Orange Bowl - Semifinal Oklahoma vs. Clemson Oklahoma Sooners


14 Texas Bowl LSU vs. Texas Tech LSU Tigers


13 Las Vegas Bowl BYU vs. Utah BYU Cougars


12 Belk Bowl N.C. State vs. Mississippi State N.C. State Wolfpack


11 Holiday Bowl USC vs. Wisconsin Wisconsin Badgers


10 Bahamas Bowl Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan Western Michigan Broncos


9 Music City Bowl Texas A&M vs. Louisville Louisville Cardinals


8 Outback Bowl Northwestern vs. Tennessee Tennessee Volunteers


7 Sugar Bowl Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State Ole Miss Rebels


6 Pinstripe Bowl Indiana vs. Duke Duke Blue Devils


5 Cure Bowl San Jose State vs. Georgia State San Jose State Spartans


4 New Mexico Bowl Arizona vs. New Mexico Arizona Wildcats


3 Taxslayer Bowl Penn State vs. Georgia Georgia Bulldogs


2 Cactus Bowl West Virginia vs. Arizona State Arizona State Sun Devils


1 Alamo Bowl Oregon vs. TCU Oregon Ducks

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Bowl Tip Sheet
December 17, 2015




**Arizona vs. New Mexico**


-- The Pac-12 and Mtn. West Conference will collide Saturday in Albuquerque at the Gildan New Mexico Bowl. As of Thursday, most betting shops had Arizona (6-6 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) installed as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 65. The line was 9.5 at most spots on Tuesday, but the number has been slowly sliding down since then. The Lobos were +325 on the money line (risk $100 to win $325) earlier in the week, but that number was down to +300 by Thursday. For first-half wagers, the Wildcats were favored by 4.5 points with a total of 33 points.


-- New Mexico (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) is in the postseason for the first time since 2007 and this will be the bowl debut for Bob Davie in his fourth season at the helm. The Lobos won three of their last four games both SU and ATS, with all three victories coming from the role as double-digit underdogs. They beat Utah State 14-13 as 20.5-point home underdogs before taking over the smurf turf and capturing a 31-24 win at Boise State as 31-point puppies.


-- UNM’s defense gave up 638 total yards of offense to the Broncos, but it forced four turnovers and was able to get stops on three fourth-down attempts by BSU. Jhurell Pressley rushed nine times for 132 yards and one TD for the winners. QB Austin Apodaca completed 8-of-12 throws for 172 yards, while QB Lamar Jordan ran for a 19-yard TD and completed his only pass attempt for 46 yards.


-- After beating BSU, UNM lost a 28-21 decision to Colorado State as a three-point home underdog. However, the Lobos bounced back in the regular-season finale to top Air Force 47-35 as 11-point home ‘dogs. Pressley exploded for 170 rushing yards and three TDs on 17 carries, while Jordan ran 12 times for 68 yards and one TD. Jordan also threw for 135 yards.


-- New Mexico won outright in five of seven home games this year, going 3-4 ATS. However, we should note that UNM went 2-1 both SU and ATS in three games as a home puppy. During Davie’s four-year tenure, the Lobos are 5-9 ATS in 14 games as home ‘dogs.


-- After racing out to a 5-2 start, Rich Rodriguez’s squad lost four of its last five games, including a 52-37 defeat at Arizona State as a six-point underdog in the regular-season finale. After the regular-season finale, Rodriguez’s name was linked to multiple jobs and he definitely interviewed for the South Carolina gig. According to reports and a tweet from Arizona AD Greg Byrne, Rodriguez declined an offer from the Gamecocks.


-- Arizona’s defense has been a disaster, finishing No. 114 in total yards (463.2 YPG) and No. 106 in scoring defense (35.7 PPG). This unit had to play nearly the entire season without junior MLB Scooby Wright, who was a first-team All-American and the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year in 2014. Wright injured his foot in September and played in only two regular-season games. However, he is expected to return and play on Saturday. He finished last season with 14 sacks and 29 tackles for loss.


-- Arizona star RB Nick Wilson won’t be available on Saturday, however. Wilson, who rushed for 1,375 yards and 16 TDs while garnering third-team All Pac-12 honors as a true freshman in 2014, missed three games this year and was given only six carries in each of the last three games he played. Wilson finished 2015 with a team-best 736 rushing yards for eight TDs with a 5.5 yards-per-carry average.


-- Arizona is going bowling for a fourth straight season under Rodriguez, who has led the Wildcats to a 2-1 SU record and a 1-2 ATS mark in three postseason games. In 2012, UA failed to cover in a 49-48 win over Nevada at the New Mexico Bowl. Two years ago, the Wildcats smashed Boston College 42-19 as seven-point favorites at the AdvoCare V100 Bowl. Then last season, they dropped a 38-30 decision to Boise State as three-point ‘chalk’ at the Fiesta Bowl.


-- Arizona’s offense is led by sophomore QB Anu Solomon, who missed the regular-season finale at Arizona State with a head injury. He also missed most of the 56-30 home loss to UCLA after leaving the game early with a concussion. Nevertheless, Solomon completed 63.0 percent of his passes for 2,326 yards with an 18/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He ran for 186 yards and two scores. For his career, Solomon has a stellar 46/13 TD-INT ratio.


-- Arizona posted a 2-0 spread record in a pair of road ‘chalk’ situations this year. During Rodriguez’s tenure, the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS as road favorites.


-- UNM’s last bowl appearance came in this same event in 2007 when it blasted Nevada 23-0 as a 2.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Lobos had lost four straight bowl games prior to that, including the 2006 New Mexico Bowl to San Jose State (20-12) as three-point favorites.


-- The ‘over’ cashed at a 9-3 overall clip for Arizona this year, hitting in each of its last two regular-season games. The Wildcats saw their games average combined scores of 72.4 points per game.


-- The ‘under’ went 7-5 overall for UNM, but the ‘over’ hit at a 4-3 clip in its home outings. The Lobos have seen their games average combined scores of 56.3 PPG. They saw the ‘under’ go 4-1 in their last five contests.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**Brigham Young vs. Utah**


-- Utah and BYU ((9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) are set to renew their bitter rivalry Saturday afternoon at the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium. These in-state adversaries didn’t play each other this year or in 2014, but they’ll play five years in a row starting in 2016. As of Thursday, most books had Utah installed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 52 points.


-- Utah has won four in a row in this series, taking the cash in each of the last three. The Utes are 5-1 against the Cougars both SU and ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings, including a 20-13 win two seasons ago as seven-point underdogs. The ‘over’ has hit in two of the last three encounters.


-- Utah (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) won its first six games against a tough schedule, one that featured five bowl-bound teams including Oregon and Michigan. The Utes blasted the Ducks 62-20 in Eugene, but their first setback would come at Southern Cal (42-24). They lost twice more in November, falling 37-30 at Arizona and 17-9 vs. UCLA.


-- Utah looked sloppy in the regular-season finale, a 20-14 ho-hum win over Colorado as a 16.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Joe Williams ran 34 times for 187 yards and one TD.


-- Utah has failed to cover the number in three straight games and five of its last six. The Utes have been single-digit favorites four times, going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in those instances.


-- Kyle Whittingham’s team will have to face the Cougars without star senior RB Devontae Booker, who is ‘out’ due to a knee injury that kept him out of the last two regular-season games. Booker rushed for 1,261 yards and 11 touchdown while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He also 37 receptions for 318 yards and threw a 25-yard TD pass on his only aerial attempt. As a junior in 2014, Booker earned first-team All Pac-12 honors after rushing for 1,512 yards and 10 TDs. Without its workhorse back, Utah lost at home to the Bruins and posted the aforementioned win over CU.


-- Williams has filled in well for Booker, posting back-to-back 100-plus yard rushing performances. In the loss to the Bruins, the juco transfer who started his career at UConn, rushed for 121 yards and 26 totes. For the season, Williams is averaging 4.9 YPC.


-- BYU won six of nine games against bowl-bound opponents. The Cougars’ scalps include Nebraska, Boise State, UConn, San Jose State, Cincinnati and Utah State The defeats came at UCLA (24-23), at Michigan (31-0) and at Missouri (20-16).


-- BYU got off to an inauspicious start in August when star RB Jamaal Williams was lost to a season-ending suspension. Then in the first half of the opener at Nebraska, Heisman Trophy candidate Taysom Hill suffered a season-ending knee injury. Nevertheless, Bronco Mendenhall’s squad beat the Cornhuskers thanks to a Hail Mary pass from Tanner Mangum on the game’s final play. Mangum rallied BYU past Boise State at home in Week 2, connecting on a long TD pass on a fourth-and-seven play in the final minute.


-- Mangum has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 3,062 yards with a 21/7 TD-INT ratio. Mangum’s favorite target is Mitch Mathews, who hauled in 52 receptions for 729 yards and 11 TDs. Devon Blackmon had 43 catches for 572 yards. Algernon Brown emerged as BYU’s top RB, producing 697 yards and 11 TDs with a 5.7 YPC average.


-- BYU cruised to victory in its regular-season finale at Utah State, blasting the Aggies by a 51-28 count as a three-point road favorite. Mangum connected on 16-of-30 throws for 284 yards and four TDs without an interception. Brown rushed for 68 yards and one TD on 16 carries, while Mathews brought down six catches for 158 yards and two TDs.


-- Utah senior QB Travis Wilson has had a mediocre season, throwing only 13 TD passes compared to 10 interceptions. He has completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 2,022 yards.


-- Utah WR Kenneth Marshall was listed as ‘questionable’ earlier this week, but he was upgraded to ‘probable’ after practicing on Thursday. Marshall has 38 receptions for 448 yards and four TDs. Britain Covey has made a team-high 41 catches for 518 yards and four TDs.


-- Totals have been an overall wash for the Utes (6-6), though we’ll note back-to-back ‘unders’ to close the regular season.


-- Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for the Cougars, but they have seen the ‘over’ cash in back-to-back contests.


-- BYU hasn’t been an underdog since September when it compiled a 3-1 spread record and collected a pair of outright victories from the ‘dog role.


-- Utah is bowling for a second straight season after thumping Colorado State 45-10 as a 2.5-point fave at last year’s Las Vegas Bowl. The Utes has missed the postseason in 2012 and 2013 when they went 5-7 in consecutive seasons. They have a chance to post their first 10-win campaign since entering the Pac-12 in 2011 and it would be their first 10-win season since 2010, which was the third year in a row of double-digit win tallies (2008-2010).


-- ABC will provide the broadcast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.


**Ohio vs. Appalachian State**


-- Appalachian State (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) is going bowling for the first time in school history in just its second season competing in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mountaineers suffered their lone defeats at Clemson (41-10) and vs. Arkansas State (40-27). They had only two wins against bowl-bound foes, beating Georgia Southern 31-13 as 6.5-point home favorites and Georgia State 37-3 in Atlanta.


-- As of Thursday, most books had Appalachian State listed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 55. The Mountaineers will be facing Ohio from out of the MAC at the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. This is the sixth bowl game for the Bobcats in the last seven years. They were left out of the postseason in 2014.


-- Appalachian State has been a single-digit favorite twice, easily cashing tickets in both instances. However, the Mountaineers are currently mired in a 1-4 ATS slump spanning their last five regular-season outings.


-- Appalachian State is led by a defense that ranks No. 13 in the country in scoring, allowing only 18.2 PPG. ASU is 12th in total defense and 18th against the pass.


-- There was no sophomore slump for ASU quarterback Taylor Lamb, who was the Sun Belt’s Freshman Player of the Year in 2014. Lamb completed 60.6 percent of his passes this season for 2,240 yards with a 29/8 TD-INT ratio. He also produced 385 rushing yards and four TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC.


-- ASU junior RB Marcus Cox went over 1,000 rushing yards for a third consecutive season. He ran for 1,266 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC. Cox also had 18 catches for 160 yards and two TDs. Redshirt freshman RB Jalin Moore emerged as an excellent No. 2 RB, rushing for 635 yards and five TDs with a 7.4 YPC average.


-- Ohio (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) has won three in a row both SU and ATS, including a 26-21 win at No. Illinois as an 11-point underdog in the regular-season finale. A.J. Ouellette rushed for 140 yards on 30 carries, while J.D. Sprague ran five times for 30 yards and also threw for 92 yards and one TD without an interception.


-- Ouellette has rushed for a team-best 642 yards and five TDs with a 4.7 YPC average. Meanwhile, Daz’mond Patterson has 497 rushing yards, nine TDs and a 4.9 YPC average. Patterson missed the win at NIU to close the regular season due to a leg injury, but he’s expected to play against the Mountaineers.


-- Ohio has been an underdog four times, posting a 3-1 spread record with a pair of outright victories, including a 21-10 win over Marshall as a three-point home underdog.


-- Ohio starting CB Devin Bass is ‘out’ with a thumb injury, while safety Nathan Carpenter is ‘doubtful’ due to a groin issue. Carpenter had 32 tackles and a pair of interceptions.


-- The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for Ohio with its games averaging combined scores of 52.2 PPG.


-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for ASU, but the ‘over’ has hit in four of its last five games. The Mountaineers have seen their games average combined scores of 55.4 PPG.


-- Kickoff is slated for 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Top Bowl Action
December 18, 2015




ARIZONA WILDCATS (6-6) at NEW MEXICO LOBOS (7-5)
New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM
Kickoff: Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -7.5, Total: 65.5


New Mexico will play in its first postseason game since 2007 when it hosts Arizona on Saturday in the New Mexico Bowl.


The Wildcats (6-6 ATS overall, 3-3 ATS on road) haven't won a game in regulation since Oct. 17, losing four of their last five SU with the lone win being in double overtime versus Utah.


The Lobos (6-6 ATS overall, 3-4 ATS at home) were 3-1 (SU and ATS) in November capped off by an impressive 47-35 win over 11-point favorite Air Force.


These schools faced two common opponents this year (Nevada and Arizona State) with Arizona scoring 40.5 PPG against the pair and New Mexico managing only 13.5 PPG in those two contests. But this season, the Wildcats allow 40.8 PPG away from home and the Lobos are 5-2 SU with 33.6 PPG at University Stadium. Also, most of the betting trends in this matchup favor New Mexico, such as its 10-2 ATS mark after an upset win in conference play as a home underdog since 1992, and its opponent's 0-8 ATS record after a 2-1 ATS run in a three-game stretch since the start of last season.


Bettors expecting a big Arizona win can point to its opponent's negative trend that college football home underdogs are 18-45 ATS (29%) since 1992 in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 yards per play) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in their previous contest. Although Wildcats top RB Nick Wilson (undisclosed) is doubtful to play and WR Samajie Grant (head) and OL Freddie Tagaloa (knee) are both questionable, the team expects to have both top QB Anu Solomon (concussion) and superstar LB Scooby Wright (foot) in action. The Lobos have no new injuries to contend with.


Arizona's offense has amassed 36.7 PPG and 494 total YPG this season with a healthy balance of 227 rushing YPG (5.5 YPC) and 267 passing YPG (7.3 YPA). Although leading rusher, RB Nick Wilson (725 rush yds, 5.5 YPC, 8 TD), will not likely play, the team has two other capable ball carriers in QB Jerrard Randall (702 rush yds, 9.0 YPC, 5 TD) and RB Jared Baker (691 rush yds, 5.8 YPC, 6 TD). The senior Randall has had three games with more than 100 rushing yards this season, while the senior Baker has surpassed the century mark twice, including 207 yards on 23 carries (9.0 YPC) at Colorado on Oct. 17.


But the key to this offense is the health of sophomore QB Anu Solomon, who has completed 63% of his passes for 2,338 yards (7.6 YPA), 18 TD and only 4 INT. Solomon has thrown at least two touchdown passes in six of 10 games this year and also rushed for a season-high 86 yards and a score in his last game against Utah. Solomon has four pass catchers with more than 500 receiving yards this year in WRs Cayleb Jones (722 yds, 4 TD), Johnny Jackson (612 yds, 5 TD), Nate Phillips (546 yds, 4 TD) and David Richards (514 yds, 5 TD).


Defensively, the Wildcats have struggled all season in allowing 35.7 PPG on 463 total YPG, including 40.0 PPG and 493 YPG in the past three contests. Being on the field for an average of 33:06 doesn't help either their run defense (188 YPG allowed on 4.4 YPC) or pass defense (275 YPG on 7.8 YPA). However, the unit has forced two turnovers in each of the past two games, and superstar LB Scooby Wright will be back on the field for the first time since September to wreak havoc.


New Mexico's offense has averaged a solid 29.3 PPG on 378 total YPG this year with a slight uptick in the past three contests to 33.0 PPG and 417 total YPG. The strength of this attack is clearly on the ground (248 YPG on 5.2 YPC), which includes 645 rushing yards on a hefty 6.1 YPC over the past two games.


The ball-carrying duties are nearly an equal split between three players, RBs Jhurell Pressley (846 rush yds, 6.3 YPC, 11 TD), Teriyon Gipson (766 rush yds, 5.8 YPC, 6 TD) and QB Lamar Jordan (672 rush yds, 5.3 YPC, 6 TD) who have 135, 132 and 126 carries, respectively. Pressley is coming off a career-high 170 yards (10.0 YPC) and career-high-tying three touchdowns in the win over Air Force, while Gipson is averaging 82 rushing YPG since the start of October, including 71 yards (5.9 YPC) versus the Falcons.


Although Jordan has a solid 8.6 YPA as a passer, he has completed just 53% of his throws with more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4). In the past three games, the sophomore is 9-for-19 for 239 yards, 0 TD and 4 INT.


The Lobos aren't a great defensive team either, as they surrender 27.0 PPG and 432 total YPG. While opponents run for 194 YPG on 4.5 YPC, they also complete 58% of their throws for 238 YPG on 8.0 YPA. Turnovers are key for this unit that has 19 forced turnovers in seven wins and only four total takeaways during five defeats.


BYU COUGARS (9-3) vs. UTAH UTES (9-3)
Las Vegas Bowl
Sam Boyd Stadium - Las Vegas, NV
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Utah -3, Total: 52


"Holy War" rivals play for state bragging rights on Saturday when surging BYU meets slumping Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl.


The Cougars are 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) since October 1, with their only loss being by four points on the road at an SEC school (Missouri). Meanwhile the Utes are 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU) in the past six contests, with the lone win and cover coming at Washington on Nov. 7.


These long-time rival schools met every year from 1945 to 2013 but did not square off last season. Utah has won nine of the past 12 meetings including four in a row, but BYU usually keeps the score close, as seven of the past nine meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less.


Although the Utes are 9-1 ATS in non-conference games in the past three seasons, all college football teams after an ATS loss versus an opponent with 2+ straight ATS wins are just 47-98 ATS (32%) in the past five seasons when the line is +3 to -3.


Utah will likely be without star RB Devontae Booker (knee), who has rushed for 1,261 yards and 11 TD this season, and will also be thin at wideout with its top two pass catchers most likely sidelined in WR Britain Covey (undisclosed, doubtful) and WR Kenneth Scott (leg, out).


For BYU, there have been no new additions to the injury report since TE Bryan Sampson (ankle) and LB Rhett Sandlin (neck) both suffered season-ending injuries in November. This will be last game for Cougars head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who will coach Virginia next season.


Although BYU lost star QB Taysom Hill with a broken foot in the season opener, the school has still managed to produce 34.2 PPG and 428 total YPG during the 2015 campaign. Much of this yardage has come through the air (295 YPG on 7.9 YPA), as the ground game remains subpar with only 133 YPG on 4.1 YPC. In the past four contests, the Cougars have averaged a mere 79 rushing YPG on 3.0 YPC.


But Hill's replacement, freshman QB Tanner Mangum, has done an excellent job all year with a 62% completion rate, a school freshman record 3,062 passing yards (7.9 YPA), 21 TD and 7 INT. In the past seven games, Mangum has thrown 15 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The only negative is the 26 sacks he has taken, but Mangum has done a great job in spreading his passes around, as five different BYU players have more than 400 receiving yards.


The clear leader of this group is 6-foot-6 senior WR Mitch Mathews, who has 729 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns this season, and is coming off a season-high, 158-yard effort with two touchdowns at Utah State. Mathews had a great performance in last season's Miami Beach Bowl when he caught nine passes for 82 yards and a touchdown in his team's 55-48 loss to Memphis in double overtime.


The Cougars defense has been consistently great all season in limiting opponents to 21.8 PPG on 358 total YPG. The run-stop unit allows only 3.7 YPC (145 rush YPG) and opposing quarterbacks complete just 56% of passes for 213 YPG (6.5 YPA). This BYU defense has also forced multiple turnovers eight times this season including each of the past three games. That's not a good sign for the Utes, who have multiple giveaways in four straight contests.


Utah's offense averages a solid 30.2 PPG and 377 total YPG this season, and those numbers are even better away from home (39.0 PPG, 410 total YPG). But the top three skill players are all expected to be sidelined on Saturday in RB Devontae Booker (1,261 rush yds, 4.7 YPC, 11 TD) and WRs Britain Covey (518 rec yds, 4 TD) and WR Kenneth Scott (448 rec yds, 4 TD).


That puts more pressure on inconsistent QB Travis Wilson (62% completions, 2,024 pass yds, 13 TD, 10 INT) to move the football with a subpar receiving corps whose only healthy player reaching 200 yards this season is TE Harrison Handley (270 rec yds, 4 TD). In last year's Las Vegas Bowl against Colorado State, Wilson threw for a pedestrian 158 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, but he also ran for 91 yards (8.3 YPC) and three touchdowns in the 45-10 rout. Wilson has also used his legs nicely this season with 467 rushing yards (3.7 YPC) and 6 TD.


Wilson and junior RB Joe Williams (386 rush yds, 4.9 YPC, 1 TD) will continue to handle the bulk of the rushing load. Williams has done an excellent job filling in for Booker with 308 yards on 60 carries (5.1 YPC) over the past two games, and should expect another 20+ carries on Saturday.


The Utes defense has done a nice job this season in holding opponents to 21.8 PPG on 365 total YPG. They are especially adept at stuffing the run (112 YPG on 3.3 YPC) as opposing quarterbacks throw for 253 YPG (7.0 YPA) on a 55% completion rate. Turnovers are a big part of this unit's success, as Utah has amassed 27 takeaways during nine wins, but has forced only two turnovers combined in its three defeats.

OHIO BOBCATS (8-4) vs. APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS (9-3)
Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl - Montgomery, AL
Kickoff: Saturday, 5:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Appalachian State -7.5, Total: 55


Appalachian State will make its first-ever bowl appearance on Saturday when it takes on Ohio in the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, AL.


The Mountaineers (6-6 ATS) flourished in their second FBS season with 10 wins, and the lone defeats came to unbeaten Clemson and Sun Belt champion Arkansas State. Since that last loss, the team has won three straight games by a combined score of 109 to 54.


The Bobcats (8-4 ATS) are also riding a three-game win streak (SU and ATS) that includes a 26-21 upset at double-digit favorite Northern Illinois in the last game. Ohio also has much more postseason experience with this being the school's sixth bowl trip in the past seven years. However, most of the betting trends favor Appalachian State, with the most telling trend being that college football underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, coming off two straight conference wins are just 26-65 ATS (29%) in the past 10 seasons versus an opponent off a road victory.


The Mountaineers are also a better team away from home at 5-1 SU with a +21.8 PPG margin while the Bobcats are 3-3 SU with a minus-6.8 PPG margin.


Ohio is a decent offensive team with 27.4 PPG and 424 total YPG, and those numbers have jumped to 33.7 PPG and 484 total YPG over the past three contests. The club prefers to run the football with 57% of its plays staying on the ground, which has led to a quality 187 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC and an average possession time of 32:27. The Bobcats also throw for 236 YPG on 7.5 YPA, but their quarterback situation is shaky, as it's not clear whether senior QB Derrius Vick (1,809 pass yds, 7.3 YPA, 10 TD, 6 INT) or junior JD Sprague (785 pass yds, 9.0 YPA, 7 TD, 1 INT) will be starting under center.


Vick hasn't played the past two games due to a nagging ankle injury, but threw more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3) in his past five games. Sprague won each of the past two games by completing 21-of-33 passes for 367 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT, and he is clearly the better runner with 190 yards on 4.5 YPC compared to Vick's 177 yards on 1.9 YPC.


The best ball carrier on the team is sophomore RB A.J. Ouellette (642 rush yds, 4.7 YPC, 5 TD), who has rushed the football 52 times for 261 yards (5.0 YPC) and 2 TD over the past two games, but speedy 5-foot-7 RB Daz'mond Patterson (497 rush yds, 4.9 YPC, 9 TD) is also a capable back.


Ohio's defense has given up 24.8 PPG on 371 total YPG this year, and those numbers have improved greatly to 17.3 PPG on 313 total YPG in the past three contests. The Bobcats allow 157 rushing YPG on a hefty 4.8 YPC this season, and also give up 214 passing YPG on 6.5 YPA and 60% completions. A big deficiency has been turnovers, as Ohio started the season with 15 takeaways in the first six games of the year, but has forced only four turnovers during the past six contests.


Appalachian State knows how to put up big numbers with 37.2 PPG on 470 total YPG this season, including 39.3 PPG on 488 total YPG away from home. This is also a run-heavy offense that keeps the ball on the ground two-thirds of the time. The club constantly feeds junior RB Marcus Cox, who has 1,261 rushing yards (5.8 YPC) and 8 TD this year. Cox topped the century mark in rushing yards seven times this year, including a season-high 192 in the regular-season finale at South Alabama.


The Mountaineers can also throw the football with sophomore QB Taylor Lamb, who produced 2,263 passing yards (8.8 YPA), 29 TD and only 8 INT, which places him eighth in the nation with a 166.1 rating. Lamb has plenty of reliable pass catchers to work with in WRs Shaedon Meadors (439 rec yds, 3 TD), Malachi Jones (433 rec yds, 3 TD) and Simms McElfresh (424 rec yds, 6 TD). He also has a big target in 6-foot-4 TE Barrett Burns, who caught only 12 passes all year, but six of those grabs resulted in touchdowns.


The ASU defense has been tough this season in allowing only 18.2 PPG and 318 total YPG, thanks in large part to Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year DL Ronald Blair, who had 7.5 sacks, 67 tackles and 18 Tackles for Loss. The run-stop unit holds teams to 134 YPG on 3.5 YPC, while the passing defense limits opposing quarterbacks to 184 YPG on 6.4 YPA and 61% completions. Although the Mountaineers forced three turnovers in their final game, they had zero takeaways in each of their previous three contests.


SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS (5-7) vs. GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS (6-6)
Cure Bowl
Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line San Jose State -3, Total: 55.5


Georgia State will play in its first-ever bowl game when it travels to Orlando on Saturday to tangle with sub-.500 San Jose State in the Cure Bowl.


The Spartans (7-5 ATS) are one of three 5-7 teams to go bowling this season, but they failed to win consecutive games all year. They haven't dropped a bowl game since 1987, but they did plenty of losing this season with five of their defeats coming by at least two touchdowns.


The Panthers (8-3-1 ATS) were 1-23 in their first two FBS seasons, but finished the 2015 campaign with four straight wins (SU and ATS). All four victories came by double-digits despite the spread in three of those contests being by a field goal or less.


Both schools have positive betting trends for their season finale, as SJSU is 22-9 ATS in non-home games after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in its previous contest since 1992, and is also 15-5 ATS in this same timeframe on the road versus poor rushing teams (3.25 or less YPC).


However, Georgia State is 12-3 ATS under Trent Miles after a game that went Under the total, including 7-0 ATS this season, and is also 9-1 ATS on the road under Miles after an ATS victory.


The only two significant injuries for this matchup are both for the Spartans with TE Brad Kuh (undisclosed) doubtful and S Chad Miller (eye) questionable.


San Jose State has a high-powered offense that averaged 28.0 PPG and 415 total YPG this year, and those numbers have jumped to 33.0 PPG and 472 total YPG in the past three contests. The team has a slight preference to keep the football on the ground with 56% running plays, which has resulted in 182 YPG on 4.6 YPC. The air attack is also efficient with 233 YPG on 7.5 YPA and 68% completions.


Senior RB Tyler Ervin (1,469 rush yds, 5.6 YPC, 13 TD) is the best offensive weapon the Spartans have. Not only did the senior rack up six games with 110+ rushing yards, but he also caught 44 passes for 337 yards and 2 TD. The second leading rusher is junior QB Kenny Potter (346 rush yds, 3.5 YPC, 6 TD), who has galloped for 216 yards and two scores in the past three games. Potter (69% completions, 1,895 pass yds, 14 TD, 6 INT) has also been throwing the football with great accuracy, completing at least 65% of his throws in five straight games where he has totaled 11 TD and only 2 INT.


There isn't a clear No. 1 receiver between TE Billy Freeman (581 rec yds, 6 TD) and WRs Hansell Wilson (464 rec yds, 4 TD) and Tim Crawley (424 rec yds, 5 TD). Freeman had 109 receiving yards in the season finale versus Boise State, but Wilson had 98 and a touchdown while Crawley caught five passes and found the end zone for the third straight game.


The San Jose State defense hasn't been terrible this season in allowing 28.2 PPG and 369 total YPG, but those numbers have slipped to 33.3 PPG and 440 total YPG over the past three games. Although the pass defense is outstanding, allowing the second-fewest yards in the nation (154 passing YPG), opponents have steamrolled the front seven to the tune of 216 YPG on 5.2 YPC.


Due the high volume of running plays, the Spartans have been unable to generate many turnovers, tallying only 11 takeaways all season. Their Saturday opponent does have seven games of multiple giveaways though.


Despite its 22 turnovers this year, Georgia State has still averaged a strong 27.8 PPG and 450 total YPG this season, including 32.5 PPG and 511 total YPG during its four-game win streak.


The Panthers love to throw the football with strong-armed QB Nick Arbuckle, who averages 347 passing YPG (4,160 pass yds) with 26 TD and only 11 INT. He has three great pass catchers in WRs Penny Hart (1,095 yds, 8 TD), Robert Davis (979 yds, 6 TD) and Donovan Harden (662 yds, 4 TD). The freshman Hart has five games of at least 110 receiving yards in 2015, and has also scored a touchdown in four straight games.


Georgia State is not a strong running team with only 103 YPG on 3.2 YPC this season, but sophomore RB Kyler Neal has rushed for 64 yards on 11 carries (5.8 YPC) and two touchdowns over the past two games. Defensively, the Panthers have been excellent the past three weeks in limiting opponents to 12.7 PPG and 287 total YPG, but they still give up 28.4 PPG and 416 total YPG for the season.


They haven't stopped many opposing quarterbacks with allowing 234 passing YPG on 6.5 YPA, and they also surrender 182 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC. But the unit does have at least one takeaway in all 12 games this season, including 11 forced turnovers during the past six contests.


ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES (9-3) vs. LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS (8-4)
New Orleans Bowl
Superdome - New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line Louisiana Tech -2, Total: 67.5


A pair of high-powered offenses tries to cap off the season in style when Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech collide in Saturday's New Orleans Bowl.


QB Fredi Knighten has propelled the Red Wolves (8-4 ATS) to 48.6 PPG during their current eight-game win streak (6-2 ATS) while QB Jeff Driskel has led the Bulldogs to a huge 7-2 SU mark (4-5 ATS) with 36.7 PPG in their past nine games.


But Louisiana Tech is also coming off a humiliating 58-24 loss to 5-point underdog Southern Miss when it turned the ball over seven times. The giveaways could continue against an Arkansas State team that has forced 27 turnovers in the past eight contests.


The Red Wolves also have some big betting trends in their favor, such as their 10-2 ATS record when facing a winning team in the past three seasons or the fact that teams like the Bulldogs coming off an ATS loss facing an opponent with 3+ straight ATS wins are just 19-50 ATS (27%) in the past five seasons. But not all is hopeless for Louisiana Tech, which is 14-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992, and 32-15 ATS off a conference loss in that same timeframe.


The only new injuries or omissions for either team are all with Arkansas State, which will likely be without WR Tyler Trosin and DE Chris Stone who are expected to be suspended for this bowl game, while OL Jemar Clark suffered a season-ending knee injury in late November.


Arkansas State's recent offensive surge of 55.3 PPG and 529 total YPG in the past three games gives the club 41.0 PPG and 448 total YPG this season. While the star of the offense is senior QB Fredi Knighten (1,698 pass yds, 7.6 YPA, 19 TD, 7 INT), the Red Wolves prefer to run the football. They rush the ball 75% of the time, which equates to 236 YPG on 5.0 YPC.


Three different ball carriers average more than six yards per carry with RBs Michael Gordon (1,055 rush yds, 6.4 YPC, 9 TD), freshman Warren Wand (643 rush yds, 6.1 YPC, 4 TD) and sophomore Johnston White (573 rush yds, 6.4 YPC, 14 TD). The 5-foot-9, 187-pound senior Gordon has rushed for 821 yards and 7 TD during the eight-game win streak, including 148 yards in the regular-season finale versus Texas State.


The 5-foot-11, 180-pound White has scored in all eight of the victories, totaling 11 TD during the win streak. Knighten has also rushed for 358 yards and 4 TD this season, and has been much more potent through the air recently with 286 passing YPG, 9 TD and 1 INT over the past three contests. Senior WR Tres Houston (568 rec yds, 10 TD) has caught four of these touchdowns as part of his 13 receptions for 311 yards over the past three games.


Defensively, Arkansas State allows 28.8 PPG on 397 total YPG this year, but has improved those numbers to 22.0 PPG on 356 total YPG in the past three games. The Red Wolves are decent against the run, limiting opponents to 145 YPG on 4.2 YPG, but the secondary has been burned for 252 passing YPG on 6.6 YPA.


Part of this is the result of the gambling nature of a team that has at least three takeaways in four straight games, and hopes its opponent keeps giving away the football like the Bulldogs did seven times in the regular-season finale.


Louisiana Tech has a high-octane offense that scores 36.7 PPG with 465 total YPG. These numbers are achieved with a nearly even balance of 53% passing plays and 47% rushing plays. But while the ground game picks up a pedestrian 154 YPG on 4.7 YPC, the air attack racks up 311 YPG on 8.5 YPA.


Senior QB Jeff Driskel entered this year with a weak career ratio of 23 TD and 20 INT, but this season he has thrown for 24 TD and only eight picks. Driskel has 3,575 passing yards (8.7 YPA) this season, including nine games of at least 290 passing yards.


His top target is junior WR Trent Taylor (89 rec, 1,133 yds, 8 TD) who has six 100-yard efforts this season. On the ground, the Bulldogs usually hand the football to senior RB Kenneth Dixon (968 rush yds, 5.5 YPC, 17 TD) who has rushed for more than 160 yards on three separate occasions.


Although Dixon has been horrible in the past two games with only 35 yards on 27 carries, he did catch five passes for 82 yards and 2 TD in the last game, giving him 354 receiving yards and five scores through the air this season.


The Louisiana Tech defense allows a subpar 26.7 PPG on 382 total YPG, but has been very good in stopping the run (116 YPG on 3.5 YPC). The pass defense has been consistently torched all season though, surrendering 266 passing YPG on 7.0 YPA and 60% completions. The Bulldogs haven't created enough turnovers away from home though, tallying only five takeaways in six road games this season.