NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 8
Wednesday’s game
Coastal Carolina (6-0) @ Appalachian State (4-2)
— Chanticleers won last three games by a combined 161-29.
— Coastal ran ball for 261.6 yards/game in I-A games.
— Chanticleers have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Coastal has 137 returning starts on offensive line.
— Coastal’s QB has 17 career starts.
— Chanticleers are 5-2-1 ATS in last 7 games as a road favorite.
— This is Coastal’s first game this year with a single digit spread.
— App State scored 31+ points in wins, 23-13 in losses.
— ASU beat Marshall 31-30 in its only I-A home game.
— Last seven years, App State is 10-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— App State has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— ASU has 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
— App State has a QB with 17 starts- he transferred from Duke.
— Over last decade, ASU is 1-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— Coastal (-4.5) beat App State 34-23 at home LY.
— App State won three of last four series games.
— Chanticleers lost 56-37/37-29 in last two visits here.
— Single digit home dogs are 3-0 ATS in Sun Belt this year.
Thursday’s games
Tulane (1-5) @ SMU (6-0)
— Tulane is 0-5 vs I-A teams, giving up average of 44.2 ppg.
— Green Wave scored 21+ points in all five games (1-4 ATS).
— Green Wave has 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Tulane has 114 returning starts on offensive line.
— Green Wave are playing a freshman QB with 18 starts.
— Last four years, Tulane is 4-8-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Fritz is 9-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Mustangs are averaging 37.6 ppg against I-A opponents.
— SMU ran for 350 yards in 42-34 win at TCU.
— SMU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Mustangs have 141 returning starts on offensive line.
— SMU has a soph QB this year; he was a backup at Oklahoma.
— Last three years, SMU is 8-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— SMU won last six series games (4-2 ATS).
— Green Wave is 7-2 ATS in last nine visits to SMU.
— SMU threw for 439 yards in LY’s 37-34 (-6.5) series win.
— Double digit home favorites are 4-2 ATS in AAC this season
Louisiana (5-1) @ Arkansas State (1-5)
— Louisiana won five games in row since a 38-18 loss at Texas.
— Last four games, ULL ran ball for 227.5 yards/game.
— Cajuns road wins; 20-18 win at South Alabama, 28-20 at Ga Southern.
— Cajuns have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Louisiana has 140 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cajuns’ senior QB has started 34 games.
— Under Napier, Louisiana is 6-5 ATS as road favorite (0-2 TY).
— Arkansas St is 0-5 vs I-A teams, giving up 51.4 ppg.
— Red Wolves allowed 540+ TY in all five of those games.
— Last three games, ASU allowed 368.3 rushing yards/game.
— Arkansas has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Red Wolves have 149 returning starts on offensive line.
— Arkansas State’s QB started 25 games at Florida State.
— Last five years, Red Wolves are 1-3 ATS as home underdogs.
— ASU scored 33+ points in four of their six games.
— Louisiana won last three series games, by 4-17-4 points.
— Favorites covered last four series games played here.
— Double digit favorites are 4-3 ATS in Sun Belt games.
Florida Atlantic (3-3) @ Charlotte (3-2)
— FAU is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road, losing by 21-24-17 points.
— Owls ran ball for 200+ yards in wins, 92-141-52 in losses.
— FAU has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Owls have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
— FAU has a junior QB with 15 starts- he used to play at Miami.
— Last 4+ years, Owls are 6-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his career, Taggart is 11-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— Charlotte lost 20-9 at Georgia State, 24-14 at Illinois.
— 49ers beat Duke 31-28, MTSU 42-39, both at home.
— 49ers allowed 298+ rushing yards in three of four I-A games.
— Charlotte has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— 49ers have 29 returning starts on offensive line.
— Charlotte has a junior QB with 29 starts.
— Under Healy, 49ers are 2-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Underdogs covered last five series games.
— FAU won three of last four series games.
— Owls won last three visits to Charlotte, by 10-19-18 points.
— C-USA road favorites are 6-2 ATS.
San Jose State (3-4) @ UNLV (0-6)
— San Jose lost three of last four games, scoring 3-14-13 in losses.
— Spartans are minus-10 in turnovers this season.
— San Jose outgained San Diego St 345-240 LW, but lost 19-13.
— Spartans have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— San Jose has 112 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Spartans have senior QB with 15 starts- he used to play at Arkansas.
— Last six years, San Jose is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— UNLV’s last three losses were all by 8 or fewer points.
— Rebels are giving up 35 ppg against I-A opponents.
— Rebels gave up 440+ TY in five of six games.
— UNLV has 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Rebels have 31 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UNLV is shuffling QB’s.
— Under Arroyo, Rebels are 1-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— Teams split last four series games.
— San Jose lost last two trips to Las Vegas, 38-35/41-13
— Favorites are 6-2 ATS last eight series games.
— Mountain West road favorites are 3-4 ATS.
Friday’s games
Middle Tennessee (2-4) @ Connecticut (1-7)
— MTSU is 0-4 on road, giving up 36.3 ppg.
— Blue Raiders ran for 209 yards in 34-28 upset of Marshall.
— They ran for total of 232 yards in their four I-A losses.
— MTSU has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Blue Raiders have 49 returning starts on offensive line.
— MTSU have played pair of junior QB’s.
— Last 6 years, MTSU is 8-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— UConn got its first win LW, 21-15 (+3) over Yale.
— Huskies were underdog to an Ivy League team.
— UConn lost 38-28 to I-AA Holy Cross.
— UConn has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Huskies have 47 returning starts on offensive line.
— UConn has been playing three QB’s.
— UConn is 7-9 ATS last 16 games as a home underdog.
— These teams haven’t met since 2001.
Memphis (4-3) @ Central Florida (2-2)
— Memphis lost three of last four games, giving up 29.3 ppg.
— Tigers’ losses are by 3-3-6 points.
— Memphis gave up 198+ RY in three of last four games.
— Tigers passed for 300+ yards in three of last four games.
— Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Memphis has 104 returning starts on offensive line.
— Memphis has a freshman QB with seven starts.
— Under Silverfield, Memphis is 0-6 ATS on the road.
— UCF lost three of last four games, giving up 37 ppg.
— Knights are 2-0 in I-A home tilts, beating Boise State/East Carolina.
— Knights gave up 330+ rushing yards in two of last three games.
— UCF has 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Knights have a soph QB with 27 career starts.
— Last 2+ years, UCF is 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Malzahn is 22-28-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Memphis (+3) beat UCF 50-49 last year.
— Total yardage was 798-703, UCF.
— UCF won 13 of last 14 series games.
— Last two meetings were both decided by a point.
— Underdogs are 5-3-1 ATS last nine series games.
Colorado State (3-3) @ Utah State (4-2)
— Colorado State won last two games, scoring 32-36 points.
— Rams were outgained only 278-250 in 24-14 loss at Iowa.
— Colorado State held last four opponents under 300 TY.
— Rams have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— CSU has 91 returning starts on offensive line.
— Rams have a senior QB with seven career starts.
— Colorado State is 11-6 ATS last 17 games as road favorites.
— Under is 4-1 in Colorado State games TY.
— Utah State’s three I-A wins are by 3-4-4 points.
— LW, Aggies scored with 0:35 left to escape winless UNLV 28-24.
— Utah State allowed 219+ rushing yards in 3 of last 4 games.
— Aggies have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Utah State has 69 returning starts on offensive line.
— USU’s QB has 21 career starts- he played at Ark State for coach Anderson.
— Aggies are 2-10 ATS last 12 games as home underdogs.
— These teams didn’t meet last season.
— Utah State won last two series games, 34-24/29-24
— Rams lost three of last four visits to Logan.
— Underdogs are 6-4 ATS in last ten series games.
— Mountain West road favorites are 3-4 ATS.
Washington (2-4) @ Arizona (0-6)
— Washington lost last two weeks, 27-24/24-17.
— Huskies are 0-2 on road; 31-10 at Michigan, 24-17 at Oregon St.
— Washington has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Huskies have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Washington’s QB has 10 career starts.
— Last four years, Huskies are 6-8 ATS as road favorites.
— Under is 4-1 in Washington games.
— Arizona has now lost 18 games in a row.
— Four of Wildcats’ I-A losses this year are by 18+ points.
— Last three games, Arizona is minus-7 in turnovers.
— Arizona has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Arizona has 81 returning starts on offensive line.
— Arizona’s freshman QB is 61-93/536 passing (2 TD’s/3 INTs).
— Wildcats are 6-12 ATS last 18 games as an underdog.
— Washington won last four series games, scoring 45 ppg.
— Arizona is 0-5 ATS in last five visits to Seattle.
— Huskies gained 450+ TY in last five series games.
Saturday’s games
Syracuse (3-4) @ Virginia Tech (3-3)
— Syracuse lost last three games, all by three points.
— Syracuse ran ball for 228+ yards in four of last five games.
— Last four Syracuse games were all decided by a FG.
— Orange are 1-1 SU on road (29-9 at Ohio/30-33 at Florida St.)
— Syracuse has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Syracuse has 120 returning starts on offensive line.
— Orange soph QB is a transfer from Mississippi State.
— Under Babers, Syracuse is 15-9 ATS as road underdogs.
— Tech lost last three of its last four games.
— Hokies allowed 10-14-10 points in wins, 27-32-28 in losses.
— Hokies are 10-13 ATS in last 23 home games.
— Tech has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Tech has 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hokies’ junior QB has started ten games.
— Under Fuente, Tech is 4-6 ATS as home underdogs.
— These teams haven’t met since 2016.
— ACC home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-6 ATS.
Clemson (4-2) @ Pitt (4-1)
— Clemson is 1-1 on road; 21-27 at NC State, 17-14 at Syracuse.
— Tigers are 3-2 in I-A games; wins were by 6-6-3 points.
— Tigers gained 314 or less TY in four of five I-A games.
— Clemson has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Tigers have 37 returning starts on offensive line.
— Clemson’s freshman QB has made 8 starts.
— Clemson is 12-7-1 ATS in last 20 games as a road favorite.
— Average total in Clemson’s I-A games: 29.2.
— Last time Tigers were a regular season underdog: 2016
— Panthers scored 46.3 ppg in its I-A games.
— Pitt is 2-0 on road; 41-34 at Tennessee, 52-21 at Ga Tech.
— Pitt is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 road games.
— Panthers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Pitt has 74 returning starts on offensive line.
— Pit’s senior QB has started 41 games.
— Last six years, Panthers are 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Clemson won last two series games, 52-17/42-10.
— This is Tigers’ first ACC visit to Pittsburgh.
— ACC home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-6 ATS.
Maryland (4-2) @ Minnesota (4-2)
— Maryland lost last two games, giving up 51-66 points.
— Terps threw ball for 330+ yards in its three I-A wins.
— Maryland allowed 428+ TY in its last three games.
— Maryland has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Maryland has 36 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Terrapins have sophomore QB who started 15 games.
— Under Locksley, Maryland is 2-5 ATS as road underdogs.
— Minnesota won 4 of last 5 games; loss was as 30-point favorites.
— Last three years, Gophers are 13-5-1 ATS in conference games.
— Minnesota scored 30+ points in four of six games.
— Minnesota has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Gophers have 182 (yes, 182) returning starts on offensive line.
— Gophers have a junior QB with 32 starts.
— Since 2015, Minnesota is 9-16 ATS as home favorite.
— Maryland gained 675 TY in LY’s 45-44 series win (+20.5)
— Terps won three of five Big 14 meetings with Minnesota.
— Big 14 single digit home favorites are 2-4-1 ATS.
NC State (5-1) @ Miami (2-4)
— State won last three I-A games, beating ACC rivals Clemson, BC.
— Wolfpack was -3 in turnovers in its loss, +6 in its wins.
— Wolfpack has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— NC State has 73 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wolfpack has a soph QB this year, with 15 starts.
— Last 2+ years, NC State is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite (0-2 TY).
— Miami lost its last two games by total of five points.
— ‘canes only I-A win was 25-23 over Appalachian State.
— Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Miami has 190 returning starts on offensive line.
— Hurricanes have been playing a freshman backup QB.
— Four of their five games stayed under the total.
— Miami is home underdog for first time in four years.
— Miami won last three series games.
— Miami (-10) gained 620 TY in LY’s 44-41 win over NC State.
— Teams split two series games played here.
Utah (4-2) @ Oregon State (4-2)
— Utah won last three games, scoring 33.7 ppg.
— Utes gave up 219-204 YR in their two losses.
— Utah is giving up 28.3 ppg on road, 17 ppg at home.
— Utah has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Utes have 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Utah has soph quarterback with 5 starts.
— Utah is 25-11-1 ATS in last 37 road games.
— Oregon State won four of its last five games.
— Beavers ran ball for 242+ yards in each of last five games.
— Oregon State is 4-0 if it allows less than 30 points.
— Beavers have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— OSU has 86 returning starts on offensive line.
— OSU’s sophomore QB has 9 career starts.
— Under Smith, Beavers are 3-9-1 ATS as home underdogs.
— Utah won last five series games (1-3 ATS last four)
— Favorites are 4-1 ATS in last five series games played here.
— Pac-12 road favorites are 4-2 ATS.
Oregon (5-1) @ UCLA (5-2)
— Oregon split two road games, 35-28 Ohio State/24-31 Stanford.
— Ducks were +12 in turnovers first four games, minus-3 last two.
— Oregon ran ball for 228/210 yards.
— Three of Oregon’s four I-A wins were by 7 points.
— Ducks have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Oregon has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
— Oregon’s QB has 34 career starts, 28 at Boston College.
— Last six years, Ducks are 3-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Under is 4-1 in Oregon games this season.
— UCLA gave up 40-42 points in losses, 27 or less in wins.
— UCLA was held under 200 YR in both its losses.
— Last two weeks, Bruins ran for 329/237 yards.
— Bruins lost last two home games, to Fresno St/Arizona St.
— UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bruins have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UCLA’s junior QB is making his 30th career start.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 3-8 ATS as home favorites.
— Chip Kelly Bowl; Kelly coached Oregon (46-7) from 2009-12.
— Oregon won eight of last nine series games.
— Ducks won five of last seven visits to Pasadena.
— UCLA outgained Oregon 462-422 LY, but lost 38-35 in Eugene.
West Virginia (2-4) @ TCU (3-3)
— West Virginia is 1-4 vs I-A teams, losing by 6-3-3-25 points.
— WVU gave up 354 PY in LW’s 45-20 loss at Baylor.
— Four of WVU’s five I-A games stayed under the total.
— Mountaineers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— WVU has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mountaineers have junior QB with 37 career starts.
— West Virginia is 8-6 ATS last 14 games as road dogs.
— TCU gave up 1,066 RY, 49.3 ppg in losing 3 of last 4 games.
— Horned Frogs gave up 37.8 ppg in their five I-A games.
— TCU lost last two home games, 42-34 to SMU, 32-27 to Texas.
— Frogs gained 431+ yards in four of five I-A games.
— TCU has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
— TCU has a soph QB this year, with 25 starts.
— Last six years, TCU is 6-18-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— West Virginia won last three series games, giving up 11 ppg.
— Mountaineers won/covered three of four visits to TCU.
Oklahoma State (6-0) @ Iowa State (3-2)
— OSU is 2-0 on road, 21-20 in Boise (+3.5), 32-24 at Texas (+3.5).
— Cowboys outgained first three Big X foes by 142.7 yards/game.
— Last two games, OSU ran ball for 218-220 yards.
— Cowboys have 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— OSU has 103 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cowboys’ soph QB has started 25 games.
— OSU is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 road games.
— Iowa State lost 27-17 to Iowa, 31-29 at Baylor, beat three stiffs.
— ISU ran ball for 506 yards in last two games.
— Cyclones have 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— ISU has 93 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cyclones have a junior QB this year, with 37 starts.
— Under Campbell, ISU is 7-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Oklahoma State won 8 of last 9 series games.
— Cowboys won last four visits to Ames.
— Iowa State gained 448+ TY in four of last five meetings.
Wisconsin (3-3) @ Purdue (4-2)
— Wisconsin is 0-3 when it allows more than 14 points.
— Badgers are already minus-11 in turnovers.
— Badgers won last two games, but against lesser foes.
— Wisconsin won only true road game, 24-0 at Illinois.
— Badgers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Wisconsin has 59 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wisconsin has a freshman QB, with 12 starts- he is struggling.
— Last 6+ years, Badgers are 17-6 ATS as road favorites.
— Boilers scored exactly 13 points in three of last four games.
— Last two weeks, Purdue threw ball for 371/378 yards.
— Purdue held first three Big 14 opponents under 300 TY.
— Boilers have 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Purdue has 96 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Junior QB O’Connell threw for 375 yards LW.
— Under Brohm, Boilers are 7-4 ATS as home underdogs.
— Wisconsin won last 14 series games (13-3 ATS last 16)
— Underdogs covered four of last five series games.
— These teams didn’t meet last season.
LSU (4-3) @ Ole Miss (5-1)
— LSU coach Orgeron got fired Sunday, will finish season.
— Last four games, Tigers gave up 475.5 yards/game.
— LSU ran for 321 yards in last week’s 49-42 win over Florida.
— Tigers are 4-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-3 if they don’t.
— LSU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Tigers have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
— LSU’s junior QB has made ten starts.
— Under Orgeron, Tigers are 7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Ole Miss QB Corral is banged up (check status).
— Rebels gave up 39.7 ppg in last three games.
— Ole Miss scored 61-52 points in its two I-A home games.
— Rebels have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Ole Miss has 64 returning starts on offensive line.
— Rebels’ soph QB has started 20 games.
— Last four years, Ole Miss is 7-5 ATS as home favorite.
— In his career, Kiffin is 26-21-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— LSU won last five series games, scoring 58-53 in last two.
— Teams split last six meetings played here.
— Ole Miss ran for 307-402 yards last two meetings, but lost both.
San Diego State (6-0) @ Air Force (6-1)
— San Diego State scored 29.9 ppg in its five I-A wins.
— Aztecs were outgained 345-240 in LW’s 19-13 win in San Jose.
— Aztecs ran ball for 200+ yards in four of five I-A games.
— San Diego State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Aztecs have 65 returning starts on offensive line.
— San Diego State has a junior QB with 8 starts.
— Aztecs are 6-2-1 ATS last nine games as road underdogs.
— Air Force ran for 340.8 ypg in its four MW games.
— Falcons’ one loss was 49-45 (-9) at home to Utah State.
— Last four games, Air Force has a +6 turnover margin.
— Falcons have 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Air Force has only 3 returning starts on offensive line.
— Falcons have junior QB this year, with 13 starts.
— Air Force is 7-3 ATS last ten games as home favorites.
— San Diego State won last eight series games.
— Last three series games were all decided by 4 or less points.
— Aztecs won/covered last three visits to Air Force.
USC (3-3) @ Notre Dame (5-1)
— USC gave up 42-45-42 points in its losses, all at home.
— Trojans gained 431+ TY in their last four games.
— USC is 2-0 on road (45-14 at Wazzu/37-14 at Colorado).
— USC has an interim coach right now.
— Trojans have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— USC has 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Trojans have a soph QB with 22 career starts.
— USC is 4-13 ATS last 17 games as a road underdog.
— Notre Dame has three wins this year by exactly 3 points.
— First four games, ND was +6 in turnovers; they’re minus-1 in last two.
— Notre Dame has 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Notre Dame has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame has been using two QB’s; they’ve been sacked 24 times.
— Last 3+ years, Notre Dame is 9-5-1 ATS on the road.
— Notre Dame won last three meetings, by 35-3-7 points.
— USC covered once in last four visits to South Bend.
— These teams didn’t play last season.
Nevada (5-1) @ Fresno State (5-2)
— Nevada won last three games, scoring 43.3 ppg.
— Last two games, Wolf Pack threw ball for 463-395 yards.
— Nevada’s only loss was 38-17 at Kansas State.
— Nevada has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Wolf Pack has 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Nevada’s soph QB has 25 career starts.
— Wolf Pack is 10-12 ATS in last 20 games as road dog (2-0 TY).
— Fresno is 2-0 SU at home vs I-A teams, but two terrible teams.
— Bulldogs threw for 378+ yards in four of last five games.
— Fresno was +5 in turnovers LW; they were minus-5 week before.
— Fresno has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bulldogs have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Fresno’s QB has 17 career starts.
— Bulldogs are 3-6 ATS last nine games as home faves.
— Nevada won last two meetings, 37-26/35-28.
— Wolf Pack covered five of last seven visits to Fresno.
— Bulldogs gained 599 yards in LY’s 37-26 loss in Reno.
