NCAAF
Week 11
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Trend Report
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Week 11
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Trend Report
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 11
Tuesday’s games
Buffalo (4-5) @ Miami (4-5)
— Bulls gave up 209+ RY in seven of eight I-A games.
— Buffalo scored 38+ points in three of last four games.
— Bulls are 2-3 in MAC, losing by 7-10-12 points.
— Buffalo has 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Bulls have only 18 returning starts on offensive line.
— Buffalo has a junior QB with 23 starts.
— Bulls are 4-10-1 ATS last 15 games as road underdogs.
— Under is 5-3 in Buffalo games this year.
— Miami is 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Redhawks are 3-2 in MAC; both losses were by point.
— Miami’s two MAC losses were by total of three points.
— Redhawks have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Miami has 32 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Miami has been playing two QB’s.
— Last five years, Redhawks are 6-9 ATS as home favorites.
— Four of last six Miami games stayed under the total.
— Teams split last six series games.
— Buffalo lost last two visits here, 34-20/24-14
— Over is 12-4 in last 16 series games.
Akron (2-7) @ Western Michigan (5-4)
— Akron is 1-4 in MAC; they fired their coach last week.
— Akron is 1-7 vs I-A teams, with 35-20 win @ Bowling Green.
— Zips gave up 36.7 ppg in last three games.
— Zips have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Akron has 59 returning starts on offensive line.
— Akron has been playing two QB’s.
— Last three years, Zips are 4-8 ATS as road underdogs.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— WMU lost 3 of last 4 games, after a 4-1 start.
— Broncos gave up 38 ppg in their last four games.
— Last four games, WMU is minus-8 in turnovers.
— Broncos have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— WMU has 75 returning starts on offensive line.
— WMU’s soph QB has 19 career starts.
— Broncos are 7-6 ATS last 12 games as home favorites.
— Last three years, WMU is 5-3 ATS coming off a loss.
— Western Michigan won/covered four of last five meetings.
— Broncos’ last four series wins were all by 41+ points.
— Akron is 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Kalamazoo.
Ohio (2-7) @ Eastern Michigan (6-3)
— Ohio has four losses by 7 or fewer points.
— Ohio has interim coach after Solich retired this summer.
— Bobcats scored 34-35 points in their two wins.
— Bobcats have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Ohio has 48 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ohio’s frosh QB has 12 starts—also use running QB who started 18 games at UNL
— Bobcats are 11-5 ATS last 16 games as road underdogs.
— Five of last six Ohio games stayed under the total.
— EMU is 5-0 when it scores 35+ points, 1-3 when it doesn’t.
— Eagles scored 55-52 points in their last two games.
— Eastern allowed 200+ YR in five of eight I-A games.
— Eagles have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— EMU has 92 returning starts on offensive line.
— EMU’s soph QB has 11 starts (2 at Cincinnati).
— Last 11 years, Eagles are 9-15 ATS as home favorites.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven EMU games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2017.
— Ohio won nine of last eleven series games.
— Bobcats are 4-1-1 ATS in last six visits here.
Wednesday’s games
Toledo (4-5) @ Bowling Green (3-6)
— Toledo has four losses by 2 or 3 points.
— Rockets have three losses this year, when favored by 9+ points.
— All four Toledo wins are by 10+ points.
— Rockets have a +9 turnover ratio this year.
— Rockets have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Toledo has 101 returning starts on offensive line.
— Under Candle, Rockets are 10-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Six of last seven Toledo games stayed under total.
— Bowling Green is 15-47 SU since Dino Babers bolted to Syracuse.
— Falcons snapped 4-game skid with 56-44 upset of Buffalo LW.
— Bowling Green gave up 42 ppg the last four weeks.
— Falcons have 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Bowling Green has only 14 returning starts on offensive line.
— Falcons have a junior QB with 14 starts.
— Falcons are 6-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Last four Bowling Green games went over.
— Toledo won 10 of last 11 series games.
— Rockets won four of last five visits here (3-2 ATS)
— Under is 10-4 in last 14 series games.
Ball State (5-4) @ Northern Illinois (6-3)
— Ball won four of last five games, with win over Army.
— Last five games, Cardinals are +7 in turnovers.
— Cardinals scored 28+ points in wins, 17 or less in losses.
— Cardinals have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Ball has 97 returning starts on offensive line.
— Ball’s senior QB has 35 career starts.
— Last eight years, Cardinals are 3-3 ATS as road favorites.
— Under is 4-2 in last six Ball State games.
— NIU won five of its last six games (4-2 ATS).
— Huskies have three wins by 1 or 2 points.
— Huskies gave up 50-63-52 points in their two losses.
— Huskies have nine starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— NIU has 59 returning starts on offensive line.
— NIU’s junior QB has 18 career starts (9 @ Michigan St).
— Huskies are 2-5-2 ATS last nine games as home underdogs.
— Last three NIU games went over the total.
— Ball State won last two meetings, after losing previous ten.
— Cardinals are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to DeKalb.
Kent State (5-4) @ Central Michigan (5-4)
— Kent won four of last five games (scored 41.3 ppg last four).
— Kent allowed 1,161 passing yards in last three games.
— Flashes are 5-1 when they run for 200+ yards, 1-3 if they don’t.
— Flashes have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Kent has 67 returning starts on offensive line.
— Kent’s senior QB has 25 career starts.
— Flashes are 0-4 ATS as road underdogs this year.
— Over is 3-1 in last four Kent State games.
— CMU won three of its last four games.
— Chippewas scored 38-42 points in last two.
— Chippewas are 5-1 if they score 26+ points, 0-3 otherwise.
— CMU gave up 520-445 total yards in last two games.
— Chippewas have 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— CMU has 82 returning starts on offensive line.
— CMU’s freshman QB has 9 career starts.
— Last five years, Chippewas are 5-7 ATS as home favorites.
— Teams haven’t met since 2017.
— Teams split last four meetings overall, last four played here, too.
— Over is 4-1-1 in last six series games.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 11
Tuesday’s games
Buffalo (4-5) @ Miami (4-5)
— Bulls gave up 209+ RY in seven of eight I-A games.
— Buffalo scored 38+ points in three of last four games.
— Bulls are 2-3 in MAC, losing by 7-10-12 points.
— Buffalo has 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Bulls have only 18 returning starts on offensive line.
— Buffalo has a junior QB with 23 starts.
— Bulls are 4-10-1 ATS last 15 games as road underdogs.
— Under is 5-3 in Buffalo games this year.
— Miami is 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Redhawks are 3-2 in MAC; both losses were by point.
— Miami’s two MAC losses were by total of three points.
— Redhawks have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Miami has 32 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Miami has been playing two QB’s.
— Last five years, Redhawks are 6-9 ATS as home favorites.
— Four of last six Miami games stayed under the total.
— Teams split last six series games.
— Buffalo lost last two visits here, 34-20/24-14
— Over is 12-4 in last 16 series games.
Akron (2-7) @ Western Michigan (5-4)
— Akron is 1-4 in MAC; they fired their coach last week.
— Akron is 1-7 vs I-A teams, with 35-20 win @ Bowling Green.
— Zips gave up 36.7 ppg in last three games.
— Zips have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Akron has 59 returning starts on offensive line.
— Akron has been playing two QB’s.
— Last three years, Zips are 4-8 ATS as road underdogs.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— WMU lost 3 of last 4 games, after a 4-1 start.
— Broncos gave up 38 ppg in their last four games.
— Last four games, WMU is minus-8 in turnovers.
— Broncos have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— WMU has 75 returning starts on offensive line.
— WMU’s soph QB has 19 career starts.
— Broncos are 7-6 ATS last 12 games as home favorites.
— Last three years, WMU is 5-3 ATS coming off a loss.
— Western Michigan won/covered four of last five meetings.
— Broncos’ last four series wins were all by 41+ points.
— Akron is 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Kalamazoo.
Ohio (2-7) @ Eastern Michigan (6-3)
— Ohio has four losses by 7 or fewer points.
— Ohio has interim coach after Solich retired this summer.
— Bobcats scored 34-35 points in their two wins.
— Bobcats have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Ohio has 48 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ohio’s frosh QB has 12 starts—also use running QB who started 18 games at UNL
— Bobcats are 11-5 ATS last 16 games as road underdogs.
— Five of last six Ohio games stayed under the total.
— EMU is 5-0 when it scores 35+ points, 1-3 when it doesn’t.
— Eagles scored 55-52 points in their last two games.
— Eastern allowed 200+ YR in five of eight I-A games.
— Eagles have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— EMU has 92 returning starts on offensive line.
— EMU’s soph QB has 11 starts (2 at Cincinnati).
— Last 11 years, Eagles are 9-15 ATS as home favorites.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven EMU games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2017.
— Ohio won nine of last eleven series games.
— Bobcats are 4-1-1 ATS in last six visits here.
Wednesday’s games
Toledo (4-5) @ Bowling Green (3-6)
— Toledo has four losses by 2 or 3 points.
— Rockets have three losses this year, when favored by 9+ points.
— All four Toledo wins are by 10+ points.
— Rockets have a +9 turnover ratio this year.
— Rockets have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Toledo has 101 returning starts on offensive line.
— Under Candle, Rockets are 10-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Six of last seven Toledo games stayed under total.
— Bowling Green is 15-47 SU since Dino Babers bolted to Syracuse.
— Falcons snapped 4-game skid with 56-44 upset of Buffalo LW.
— Bowling Green gave up 42 ppg the last four weeks.
— Falcons have 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Bowling Green has only 14 returning starts on offensive line.
— Falcons have a junior QB with 14 starts.
— Falcons are 6-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Last four Bowling Green games went over.
— Toledo won 10 of last 11 series games.
— Rockets won four of last five visits here (3-2 ATS)
— Under is 10-4 in last 14 series games.
Ball State (5-4) @ Northern Illinois (6-3)
— Ball won four of last five games, with win over Army.
— Last five games, Cardinals are +7 in turnovers.
— Cardinals scored 28+ points in wins, 17 or less in losses.
— Cardinals have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Ball has 97 returning starts on offensive line.
— Ball’s senior QB has 35 career starts.
— Last eight years, Cardinals are 3-3 ATS as road favorites.
— Under is 4-2 in last six Ball State games.
— NIU won five of its last six games (4-2 ATS).
— Huskies have three wins by 1 or 2 points.
— Huskies gave up 50-63-52 points in their two losses.
— Huskies have nine starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— NIU has 59 returning starts on offensive line.
— NIU’s junior QB has 18 career starts (9 @ Michigan St).
— Huskies are 2-5-2 ATS last nine games as home underdogs.
— Last three NIU games went over the total.
— Ball State won last two meetings, after losing previous ten.
— Cardinals are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to DeKalb.
Kent State (5-4) @ Central Michigan (5-4)
— Kent won four of last five games (scored 41.3 ppg last four).
— Kent allowed 1,161 passing yards in last three games.
— Flashes are 5-1 when they run for 200+ yards, 1-3 if they don’t.
— Flashes have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Kent has 67 returning starts on offensive line.
— Kent’s senior QB has 25 career starts.
— Flashes are 0-4 ATS as road underdogs this year.
— Over is 3-1 in last four Kent State games.
— CMU won three of its last four games.
— Chippewas scored 38-42 points in last two.
— Chippewas are 5-1 if they score 26+ points, 0-3 otherwise.
— CMU gave up 520-445 total yards in last two games.
— Chippewas have 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— CMU has 82 returning starts on offensive line.
— CMU’s freshman QB has 9 career starts.
— Last five years, Chippewas are 5-7 ATS as home favorites.
— Teams haven’t met since 2017.
— Teams split last four meetings overall, last four played here, too.
— Over is 4-1-1 in last six series games.
Buffalo is 1-4-1 ATS in past six games overall.
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in past seven Tuesday games.
Miami is 10-4 ATS in past 14 home games.
Miami is 2-8-1 ATS in past 11 Tuesday games.
OVER is 7-1 in Buffalo's past eight Tuesday games.
Favorite is 10-2-1 ATS in past 13 meetings.
OVER is 8-1 in past nine meetings at Miami.
Akron is 4-9 ATS across the past 13 road games.
Akron is 8-19 ATS in the previous 27 MAC games.
Western Michigan is 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 after an SU loss.
Western Michigan is 4-1 ATS in past five vs. Akron.
OVER is 5-1 in past six road games for Akron.
OVER is 6-1 in past seven Tuesday games for Western Michigan.
Ohio is 16-6 ATS in past 22 as an underdog.
Ohio is 5-1 ATS in past six MAC games.
Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS in past six Tuesday games.
Eastern Michigan is 5-2 ATS in past seven MAC games.
OVER is 6-1 in past seven Tuesday games for Ohio.
OVER is 4-0 in past four Tuesday games for Eastern Michigan.
Ohio is 5-1 ATS in past six meetings vs. Eastern Michigan.
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in past seven Tuesday games.
Miami is 10-4 ATS in past 14 home games.
Miami is 2-8-1 ATS in past 11 Tuesday games.
OVER is 7-1 in Buffalo's past eight Tuesday games.
Favorite is 10-2-1 ATS in past 13 meetings.
OVER is 8-1 in past nine meetings at Miami.
Akron is 4-9 ATS across the past 13 road games.
Akron is 8-19 ATS in the previous 27 MAC games.
Western Michigan is 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 after an SU loss.
Western Michigan is 4-1 ATS in past five vs. Akron.
OVER is 5-1 in past six road games for Akron.
OVER is 6-1 in past seven Tuesday games for Western Michigan.
Ohio is 16-6 ATS in past 22 as an underdog.
Ohio is 5-1 ATS in past six MAC games.
Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS in past six Tuesday games.
Eastern Michigan is 5-2 ATS in past seven MAC games.
OVER is 6-1 in past seven Tuesday games for Ohio.
OVER is 4-0 in past four Tuesday games for Eastern Michigan.
Ohio is 5-1 ATS in past six meetings vs. Eastern Michigan.
NOVEMBER'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS AND OPINIONS
Date W-L-T % Units Record
11/09/2021...........4-2-0.............66.67%................+ 9.00
11/06/2021........34-22-1.............60.53%...............+49.00
11/05/2021...........3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/03/2021...........3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/02/2021...........5-1-0..............83.33%...............+19.50
Totals................49-27-0..............64.47%...............+96.50
BEST BETS:
11/09/2021....... ......3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/06/2021...........22-13-0..............62.85%..............+ 38.50
11/05/2021..............3-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 15.00
11/03/2021..............2-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 10.00
11/02/2021..............4-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 20.00
Totals...................34-14-0..............70.83%...............+ 93.00
UPDATED ON 11/09/2021
Date W-L-T % Units Record
11/09/2021...........4-2-0.............66.67%................+ 9.00
11/06/2021........34-22-1.............60.53%...............+49.00
11/05/2021...........3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/03/2021...........3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/02/2021...........5-1-0..............83.33%...............+19.50
Totals................49-27-0..............64.47%...............+96.50
BEST BETS:
11/09/2021....... ......3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/06/2021...........22-13-0..............62.85%..............+ 38.50
11/05/2021..............3-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 15.00
11/03/2021..............2-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 10.00
11/02/2021..............4-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 20.00
Totals...................34-14-0..............70.83%...............+ 93.00
UPDATED ON 11/09/2021
Toledo is 5-1 ATS in the past six games on the road.
Toledo is 4-1 ATS in the past five as a road favorite.
Bowling Green is 4-9 ATS in the past 13 MAC games.
Bowling Green is 5-12 ATS in the past 17 as a home 'dog.
The UNDER is 11-3 in the past 14 meetings in this series.
The UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven meetings at Bowling Green.
Kent State is 13-5 ATS in the past 18 conference games.
Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in the past eight games in November.
The OVER is 5-0 in the previous five meetings.
The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.
The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.
Ball State is 14-3 ATS in the past 17 games against winning teams.
Ball State is 0-4 ATS in its past four Wednesday games.
Northern Illinois is 0-3-1 ATS in its past four as a home underdog.
Northern Illinois is 1-8 ATS in its past nine home games vs. teams with a winning road mark.
The OVER is 4-1 in Ball State's past five as a road favorite.
The OVER is 4-1 in Northern Illinois' past five as an underdog.
Toledo is 4-1 ATS in the past five as a road favorite.
Bowling Green is 4-9 ATS in the past 13 MAC games.
Bowling Green is 5-12 ATS in the past 17 as a home 'dog.
The UNDER is 11-3 in the past 14 meetings in this series.
The UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven meetings at Bowling Green.
Kent State is 13-5 ATS in the past 18 conference games.
Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in the past eight games in November.
The OVER is 5-0 in the previous five meetings.
The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.
The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.
Ball State is 14-3 ATS in the past 17 games against winning teams.
Ball State is 0-4 ATS in its past four Wednesday games.
Northern Illinois is 0-3-1 ATS in its past four as a home underdog.
Northern Illinois is 1-8 ATS in its past nine home games vs. teams with a winning road mark.
The OVER is 4-1 in Ball State's past five as a road favorite.
The OVER is 4-1 in Northern Illinois' past five as an underdog.
NOVEMBER'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS AND OPINIONS
Date W-L-T % Units Record
11/10/2021...........3-3-0.............50.00%................- 1.50
11/09/2021...........4-2-0.............66.67%................+ 9.00
11/06/2021........34-22-1.............60.53%...............+49.00
11/05/2021...........3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/03/2021...........3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/02/2021...........5-1-0..............83.33%...............+19.50
Totals................52-30-0..............63.41%...............+95.00
BEST BETS:
11/10/2021..............2-3-0..............40.00%...............- 6.50
11/09/2021....... ......3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/06/2021...........22-13-0..............62.85%..............+ 38.50
11/05/2021..............3-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 15.00
11/03/2021..............2-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 10.00
11/02/2021..............4-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 20.00
Totals...................36-17-0..............67.92%...............+ 86.50
UPDATED ON 11/10/2021
Date W-L-T % Units Record
11/10/2021...........3-3-0.............50.00%................- 1.50
11/09/2021...........4-2-0.............66.67%................+ 9.00
11/06/2021........34-22-1.............60.53%...............+49.00
11/05/2021...........3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/03/2021...........3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/02/2021...........5-1-0..............83.33%...............+19.50
Totals................52-30-0..............63.41%...............+95.00
BEST BETS:
11/10/2021..............2-3-0..............40.00%...............- 6.50
11/09/2021....... ......3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/06/2021...........22-13-0..............62.85%..............+ 38.50
11/05/2021..............3-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 15.00
11/03/2021..............2-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 10.00
11/02/2021..............4-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 20.00
Totals...................36-17-0..............67.92%...............+ 86.50
UPDATED ON 11/10/2021
NOVEMBER'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS AND OPINIONS
Date W-L-T % Units Record
11/11/2021...........2-0-0...........100.00%..............+10.00
11/10/2021...........3-3-0.............50.00%................- 1.50
11/09/2021...........4-2-0.............66.67%................+ 9.00
11/06/2021........34-22-1.............60.53%...............+49.00
11/05/2021...........3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/03/2021...........3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/02/2021...........5-1-0..............83.33%...............+19.50
Totals................54-30-0..............64.28%.............+105.00
BEST BETS:
11/11/2021..............2-0-0............100.00%..............+ 10.00
11/10/2021..............2-3-0..............40.00%...............- 6.50
11/09/2021....... ......3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/06/2021...........22-13-0..............62.85%..............+ 38.50
11/05/2021..............3-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 15.00
11/03/2021..............2-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 10.00
11/02/2021..............4-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 20.00
Totals...................37-17-0..............68.51%...............+ 96.50
UPDATED ON 11/11/2021
Date W-L-T % Units Record
11/11/2021...........2-0-0...........100.00%..............+10.00
11/10/2021...........3-3-0.............50.00%................- 1.50
11/09/2021...........4-2-0.............66.67%................+ 9.00
11/06/2021........34-22-1.............60.53%...............+49.00
11/05/2021...........3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/03/2021...........3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/02/2021...........5-1-0..............83.33%...............+19.50
Totals................54-30-0..............64.28%.............+105.00
BEST BETS:
11/11/2021..............2-0-0............100.00%..............+ 10.00
11/10/2021..............2-3-0..............40.00%...............- 6.50
11/09/2021....... ......3-1-0..............75.00%...............+ 9.50
11/06/2021...........22-13-0..............62.85%..............+ 38.50
11/05/2021..............3-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 15.00
11/03/2021..............2-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 10.00
11/02/2021..............4-0-0.............100.00%..............+ 20.00
Totals...................37-17-0..............68.51%...............+ 96.50
UPDATED ON 11/11/2021
Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games when playing USF in Tampa.
Cincinnati has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last nine road games.
USF has lost seven of its last nine games.
USF has covered the spread in five of its last six home games.
Boise State has won four straight games when facing Wyoming.
The point total has gone UNDER in four of the last five meetings.
Wyoming has covered the spread in four of its last five games when facing Boise State.
Boise State has gone UNDER the point total in four straight games.
Boise State has seen the road team cover the spread in seven straight games.
Cincinnati has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last nine road games.
USF has lost seven of its last nine games.
USF has covered the spread in five of its last six home games.
Boise State has won four straight games when facing Wyoming.
The point total has gone UNDER in four of the last five meetings.
Wyoming has covered the spread in four of its last five games when facing Boise State.
Boise State has gone UNDER the point total in four straight games.
Boise State has seen the road team cover the spread in seven straight games.
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 11
Friday’s games
Cincinnati (9-0) @ South Florida (2-7)
— Bearcats are 0-3 ATS last three games; not impressing pollsters.
— Cincy has road wins, by 14-11-7-19 points (2-2 ATS).
— Bearcats have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Cincinnati has 48 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cincinnati has a junior QB with 44 career starts.
— Last eight games, Bearcats are +13 in turnovers.
— Cincinnati is 6-10-1 ATS in last 17 games as road favorite.
— Last three Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
— South Florida ran for 241-421 yards in its only two wins.
— Bulls are 5-2 ATS in last seven I-A games.
— USF gave up 443+ TY in seven of eight I-A games.
— USF has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Bulls have 108 returning starts on the offensive line.
— USF has a true freshman QB with nine starts.
— Bulls are 3-0 ATS this season as home underdogs.
— AAC double digit home underdogs are 6-1 ATS.
— Cincinnati won last three series games, by 21-3-12 points.
— USF is 5-0-1 ATS in last seven series games.
— Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in last four visits to Tampa.
Wyoming (5-4) @ Boise State (4-4)
— Wyoming lost four of its last five games.
— Wyoming is 4-1 when it scores 24+ points, 1-4 when it doesn’t.
— Last two games, Cowboys ran ball for 271-385 yards.
— Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Wyoming has 144 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cowboys have a soph QB with 21 starts.
— Last four years, Wyoming is 3-8 ATS as road underdogs.
— Mountain West double digit home favorites are 4-3 ATS.
— Boise State lost its last three home games SU.
— Broncos gave up 18.3 ppg in last four games.
— Boise State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Broncos have 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has soph QB who has started 22 games.
— Last seven years, Boise is 15-23 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Broncos are 2-6 ATS coming off a win.
— Under is 6-1 in last seven Boise games.
— Boise won 14 of last 15 series games.
— Wyoming is 4-2 ATS in last six series games.
— Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in last seven visits to Boise.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 11
Friday’s games
Cincinnati (9-0) @ South Florida (2-7)
— Bearcats are 0-3 ATS last three games; not impressing pollsters.
— Cincy has road wins, by 14-11-7-19 points (2-2 ATS).
— Bearcats have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Cincinnati has 48 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cincinnati has a junior QB with 44 career starts.
— Last eight games, Bearcats are +13 in turnovers.
— Cincinnati is 6-10-1 ATS in last 17 games as road favorite.
— Last three Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
— South Florida ran for 241-421 yards in its only two wins.
— Bulls are 5-2 ATS in last seven I-A games.
— USF gave up 443+ TY in seven of eight I-A games.
— USF has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Bulls have 108 returning starts on the offensive line.
— USF has a true freshman QB with nine starts.
— Bulls are 3-0 ATS this season as home underdogs.
— AAC double digit home underdogs are 6-1 ATS.
— Cincinnati won last three series games, by 21-3-12 points.
— USF is 5-0-1 ATS in last seven series games.
— Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in last four visits to Tampa.
Wyoming (5-4) @ Boise State (4-4)
— Wyoming lost four of its last five games.
— Wyoming is 4-1 when it scores 24+ points, 1-4 when it doesn’t.
— Last two games, Cowboys ran ball for 271-385 yards.
— Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Wyoming has 144 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cowboys have a soph QB with 21 starts.
— Last four years, Wyoming is 3-8 ATS as road underdogs.
— Mountain West double digit home favorites are 4-3 ATS.
— Boise State lost its last three home games SU.
— Broncos gave up 18.3 ppg in last four games.
— Boise State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Broncos have 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has soph QB who has started 22 games.
— Last seven years, Boise is 15-23 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Broncos are 2-6 ATS coming off a win.
— Under is 6-1 in last seven Boise games.
— Boise won 14 of last 15 series games.
— Wyoming is 4-2 ATS in last six series games.
— Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in last seven visits to Boise.
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 11
Saturday’s games
West Virginia (4-5) @ Kansas State (4-3)
— West Virginia is 1-3 on road, losing by 6-3-25 points.
— WVU is 4-0 if it scores 27+ points, 0-5 if it does not.
— WVU was held under 100 YR in all five of their losses.
— Mountaineers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— WVU has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mountaineers have junior QB with 41 career starts.
— Under Brown, West Virginia is 5-6 ATS as road underdogs.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven West Virginia games.
— K-State lost three of last four games, winning 25-24 @ Texas Tech LW.
— Wildcats allowed 24 or less points in wins, 31-37-33 in losses.
— Under Klieman, K-State is 5-3 ATS as home favorites.
— Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— K-State has 53 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wildcats have senior QB with 32 career starts.
— Under Klieman, K-State is 10-5 ATS coming off a win.
— Four of last five K-State games went over.
— West Virginia won last five series games, covered last four
— Mountaineers won 24-20/28-23 in last two visits to K-State.
— Under is 8-1 in last nine series games.
Minnesota (6-3) @ Iowa (7-2)
— Minnesota won 6 of last 8 games; losses as 30/15-point favorites.
— Gophers held last three opponents under 270 TY.
— Minnesota is 3-0 SU on road, giving up 9 ppg.
— Minnesota has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Gophers have 182 (yes, 182) returning starts on offensive line.
— Gophers have a junior QB with 35 starts.
— Minnesota covered last four games as a road underdog.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven Minnesota games.
— Iowa lost two of last three games, scoring 7-7-17 points.
— Hawkeyes were minus-3 in turnovers in both their losses.
— Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Iowa has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hawkeyes have a soph QB this year, with 16 starts.
— Last four years, Iowa is 12-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last four years, Iowa is 17-9-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Under is 7-2 in Iowa games this season.
— Iowa won last six series games (4-1-1 ATS).
— Gophers are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 visits to Iowa City.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Michigan (8-1) @ Penn State (6-3)
— Michigan outgained last three foes by 199 yards/game.
— Michigan is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 road games.
— Nebraska/Michigan St are only teams to score more than 17 vs Michigan.
— Michigan scored 29+ points in eight of nine games.
— Michigan has 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Wolverines have 30 returning starts on offensive line.
— Michigan’s QB has started 11 games.
— All three Michigan road games went over the total.
— Penn State lost three of its last four games, beating Maryland LW.
— Nittany Lions were held under 100 RY in last three games.
— PSU gave up 305-371 PY in last two games.
— Penn State has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Penn State has 47 returning starts on offensive line.
— Penn State has a junior QB, with 31 starts.
— Nittany Lions are 6-8-1 ATS last 15 games as home favorites.
— Under is 4-1 in Penn State home games this year.
— Penn State won three of last four series games.
— Wolverines are 2-4 ATS last six visits to Happy Valley.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine series games.
NC State (7-2) @ Wake Forest (8-1)
— NC State won six of its last seven games.
— Wolfpack won last two games, despite running for 65 ypg.
— State split four road games, losing to Miss State/Miami.
— Wolfpack has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— NC State has 73 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wolfpack has a soph QB this year, with 17 starts.
— Last five years, NC State is 3-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Under is 3-1 in last four Wolfpack games.
— Wake lost 58-55 to UNC LW, its first loss this year.
— Deacons allowed 34+ points in four of last five games
— Wake allowed 330+ RY in three of last four games.
— Wake has 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Deacons have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wake has a sophomore QB with 28 career starts.
— Deacons are 11-6 ATS last 17 games as home favorites.
— Four of last five Wake games went over the total.
— Wake Forest won three of last four series games.
— Wolfpack is 1-11 ATS in last dozen trips to Winston-Salem.
Oklahoma (9-0) @ Baylor (7-2)
— Sooners’ two true road wins are by 12-6 points.
— Oklahoma scored 52+ points in three of last four games.
— Sooners ran for 200+ yards three of last four games.
— Sooners have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Oklahoma has 126 returning starts on offensive line.
— Sooners’ freshman QB has three starts.
— Under Riley, Oklahoma is 6-10-1 ATS as road favorites.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Oklahoma games.
— Baylor gave up 468 PY LW, to TCU QB making his first start.
— Baylor scored average of 36.3 ppg in four I-A home games.
— Last four years, Baylor is 4-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last six years, Baylor 13-17 ATS coming off a loss.
— Bears have 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Baylor has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Bears have a soph QB this year, with nine starts.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven Baylor games.
— Oklahoma won last seven series games.
— Baylor covered four of last five series games.
— Sooners are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Waco.
Notre Dame (6-1) @ Virginia (3-2)
— Notre Dame scored 31+ points in their last four games.
— Notre Dame’s only loss was 24-13 at home to unbeaten Cincinnati.
— ND covered six of its last seven games.
— Notre Dame has 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Notre Dame has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame has senior QB with 27 starts.
— Last five years, Notre Dame is 10-5-2 ATS as road favorites.
— Notre Dame is 18-8 ATS last 26 games coming off a win.
— QB Armstrong got hurt at end of last game (check status)
— Virginia’s last game was two weeks ago; he had some time to heal
— Virginia scored 48-48-49 points in last three games.
— Last four years, Cavaliers are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs.
— Cavaliers are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
— Virginia has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Cavaliers have 122 returning starts on offensive line.
— Virginia has a soph QB with 16 starts.
— ACC teams are 4-1 ATS as non-conference home underdogs.
— Notre Dame was last two meetings. 35-20/34-27
— 34-27 game was in 2015, so take that for what its worth.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 11
Saturday’s games
West Virginia (4-5) @ Kansas State (4-3)
— West Virginia is 1-3 on road, losing by 6-3-25 points.
— WVU is 4-0 if it scores 27+ points, 0-5 if it does not.
— WVU was held under 100 YR in all five of their losses.
— Mountaineers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— WVU has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mountaineers have junior QB with 41 career starts.
— Under Brown, West Virginia is 5-6 ATS as road underdogs.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven West Virginia games.
— K-State lost three of last four games, winning 25-24 @ Texas Tech LW.
— Wildcats allowed 24 or less points in wins, 31-37-33 in losses.
— Under Klieman, K-State is 5-3 ATS as home favorites.
— Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— K-State has 53 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wildcats have senior QB with 32 career starts.
— Under Klieman, K-State is 10-5 ATS coming off a win.
— Four of last five K-State games went over.
— West Virginia won last five series games, covered last four
— Mountaineers won 24-20/28-23 in last two visits to K-State.
— Under is 8-1 in last nine series games.
Minnesota (6-3) @ Iowa (7-2)
— Minnesota won 6 of last 8 games; losses as 30/15-point favorites.
— Gophers held last three opponents under 270 TY.
— Minnesota is 3-0 SU on road, giving up 9 ppg.
— Minnesota has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Gophers have 182 (yes, 182) returning starts on offensive line.
— Gophers have a junior QB with 35 starts.
— Minnesota covered last four games as a road underdog.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven Minnesota games.
— Iowa lost two of last three games, scoring 7-7-17 points.
— Hawkeyes were minus-3 in turnovers in both their losses.
— Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Iowa has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hawkeyes have a soph QB this year, with 16 starts.
— Last four years, Iowa is 12-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last four years, Iowa is 17-9-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Under is 7-2 in Iowa games this season.
— Iowa won last six series games (4-1-1 ATS).
— Gophers are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 visits to Iowa City.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Michigan (8-1) @ Penn State (6-3)
— Michigan outgained last three foes by 199 yards/game.
— Michigan is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 road games.
— Nebraska/Michigan St are only teams to score more than 17 vs Michigan.
— Michigan scored 29+ points in eight of nine games.
— Michigan has 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Wolverines have 30 returning starts on offensive line.
— Michigan’s QB has started 11 games.
— All three Michigan road games went over the total.
— Penn State lost three of its last four games, beating Maryland LW.
— Nittany Lions were held under 100 RY in last three games.
— PSU gave up 305-371 PY in last two games.
— Penn State has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Penn State has 47 returning starts on offensive line.
— Penn State has a junior QB, with 31 starts.
— Nittany Lions are 6-8-1 ATS last 15 games as home favorites.
— Under is 4-1 in Penn State home games this year.
— Penn State won three of last four series games.
— Wolverines are 2-4 ATS last six visits to Happy Valley.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine series games.
NC State (7-2) @ Wake Forest (8-1)
— NC State won six of its last seven games.
— Wolfpack won last two games, despite running for 65 ypg.
— State split four road games, losing to Miss State/Miami.
— Wolfpack has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— NC State has 73 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wolfpack has a soph QB this year, with 17 starts.
— Last five years, NC State is 3-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Under is 3-1 in last four Wolfpack games.
— Wake lost 58-55 to UNC LW, its first loss this year.
— Deacons allowed 34+ points in four of last five games
— Wake allowed 330+ RY in three of last four games.
— Wake has 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Deacons have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wake has a sophomore QB with 28 career starts.
— Deacons are 11-6 ATS last 17 games as home favorites.
— Four of last five Wake games went over the total.
— Wake Forest won three of last four series games.
— Wolfpack is 1-11 ATS in last dozen trips to Winston-Salem.
Oklahoma (9-0) @ Baylor (7-2)
— Sooners’ two true road wins are by 12-6 points.
— Oklahoma scored 52+ points in three of last four games.
— Sooners ran for 200+ yards three of last four games.
— Sooners have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Oklahoma has 126 returning starts on offensive line.
— Sooners’ freshman QB has three starts.
— Under Riley, Oklahoma is 6-10-1 ATS as road favorites.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Oklahoma games.
— Baylor gave up 468 PY LW, to TCU QB making his first start.
— Baylor scored average of 36.3 ppg in four I-A home games.
— Last four years, Baylor is 4-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last six years, Baylor 13-17 ATS coming off a loss.
— Bears have 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Baylor has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Bears have a soph QB this year, with nine starts.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven Baylor games.
— Oklahoma won last seven series games.
— Baylor covered four of last five series games.
— Sooners are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Waco.
Notre Dame (6-1) @ Virginia (3-2)
— Notre Dame scored 31+ points in their last four games.
— Notre Dame’s only loss was 24-13 at home to unbeaten Cincinnati.
— ND covered six of its last seven games.
— Notre Dame has 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Notre Dame has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame has senior QB with 27 starts.
— Last five years, Notre Dame is 10-5-2 ATS as road favorites.
— Notre Dame is 18-8 ATS last 26 games coming off a win.
— QB Armstrong got hurt at end of last game (check status)
— Virginia’s last game was two weeks ago; he had some time to heal
— Virginia scored 48-48-49 points in last three games.
— Last four years, Cavaliers are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs.
— Cavaliers are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
— Virginia has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Cavaliers have 122 returning starts on offensive line.
— Virginia has a soph QB with 16 starts.
— ACC teams are 4-1 ATS as non-conference home underdogs.
— Notre Dame was last two meetings. 35-20/34-27
— 34-27 game was in 2015, so take that for what its worth.
