Cnotes College Football 2016 Bowl Game Trends-Ats-Halftime-Totals + More information

[CNOTES]

Am Posting This Seperate From My Thread So You Don't Have To Search For It in My Bowl Thread...It Runs From the Start of Bowl Season To the End,.
So here we go:.....Good Luck With Your Plays


COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS
ATS


5:00 pm 1/2/2017
(279) USC @(280) PENN ST
Play ON PENN ST against the spread in All games off a win against a conference rival.
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses this season (+8 units)
BET NOW!


9:00 pm 12/28/2016
(249) KANSAS ST @(250) TEXAS A&M
Play AGAINST TEXAS A&M against the spread in All games after playing a conference game.
The record is 2 Wins and 13 Losses for the last two seasons (-12.3 units)
BET NOW!


9:00 pm 12/28/2016
(249) KANSAS ST @(250) TEXAS A&M
Play AGAINST TEXAS A&M against the spread in All games after playing a conference game.
The record is 4 Wins and 19 Losses for the last three seasons (-16.9 units)
BET NOW!


3:30 pm 12/27/2016
(237) WAKE FOREST @(238) TEMPLE
Play ON TEMPLE against the spread in All games in all lined games.
The record is 12 Wins and 1 Losses this season (+10.9 units)
BET NOW!


3:30 pm 12/27/2016
(237) WAKE FOREST @(238) TEMPLE
Play ON TEMPLE against the spread in All games in all games.
The record is 12 Wins and 1 Losses this season (+10.9 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/23/2016
(221) E MICHIGAN @(222) OLD DOMINION
Play ON OLD DOMINION against the spread in All games as a favorite.
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses this season (+8 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 12/22/2016
(219) COLORADO ST @(220) IDAHO
Play ON COLORADO ST against the spread in All games after playing a conference game.
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses this season (+7 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 12/22/2016
(219) COLORADO ST @(220) IDAHO
Play ON IDAHO against the spread in All games after playing a conference game.
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses this season (+7 units)
BET NOW!


2:30 pm 12/19/2016
(213) C MICHIGAN @(214) TULSA
Play ON TULSA against the spread in Road games after playing a conference game.
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


3:00 pm 12/10/2016
(103) ARMY @(104) NAVY
Play ON NAVY against the spread in Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 67 Wins and 27 Losses since 1992 (+37.3 units)
BET NOW!


------------------------------------


COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS
Money Line


5:00 pm 1/2/2017
(279) USC @(280) PENN ST
Play ON PENN ST using the money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins.
The record is 8 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.95 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 12/31/2016
(273) OHIO ST @(274) CLEMSON
Play ON CLEMSON using the money line in All games off a win against a conference rival.
The record is 13 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+12.35 units)
BET NOW!


3:00 pm 12/31/2016
(271) WASHINGTON @(272) ALABAMA
Play ON WASHINGTON using the money line in Road games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 6 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+11.8 units)
BET NOW!


8:00 pm 12/30/2016
(265) FLORIDA ST @(266) MICHIGAN
Play ON FLORIDA ST using the money line in Road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins.
The record is 41 Wins and 28 Losses since 1992 (-64.45 units)
BET NOW!


8:00 pm 12/30/2016
(265) FLORIDA ST @(266) MICHIGAN
Play ON FLORIDA ST using the money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins.
The record is 68 Wins and 39 Losses since 1992 (-92.3 units)
BET NOW!


10:15 pm 12/27/2016
(241) BAYLOR @(242) BOISE ST
Play ON BOISE ST using the money line in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 29 Wins and 12 Losses since 1992 (+29.3 units)
BET NOW!


10:15 pm 12/27/2016
(241) BAYLOR @(242) BOISE ST
Play ON BOISE ST using the money line in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 29 Wins and 12 Losses since 1992 (+29.3 units)
BET NOW!


4:30 pm 12/23/2016
(223) LOUISIANA TECH @(224) NAVY
Play AGAINST LOUISIANA TECH using the money line in All games after a bye week.
The record is 10 Wins and 18 Losses since 1992 (-29.25 units)
BET NOW!


9:00 pm 12/21/2016
(217) BYU @(218) WYOMING
Play ON WYOMING using the money line in All games as an underdog vs. the money line.
The record is 7 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+15.8 units)
BET NOW!


5:30 pm 12/17/2016
(209) APPALACHIAN ST @(210) TOLEDO
Play ON APPALACHIAN ST using the money line in Road games when playing on a Saturday.
The record is 11 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+15.25 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS
Half Time


5:00 pm 1/2/2017
(279) USC @(280) PENN ST
Play ON USC in the first half in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses this season (+8 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 1/2/2017
(275) IOWA @(276) FLORIDA
Play ON IOWA in the first half in All games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 12/31/2016
(273) OHIO ST @(274) CLEMSON
Play ON CLEMSON in the first half in All games in non-conference games.
The record is 13 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+10.8 units)
BET NOW!


10:15 pm 12/27/2016
(241) BAYLOR @(242) BOISE ST
Play ON BOISE ST in the first half in Road games in non-conference games.
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


10:15 pm 12/27/2016
(241) BAYLOR @(242) BOISE ST
Play ON BOISE ST in the first half in All games in non-conference games.
The record is 9 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+9 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 12/22/2016
(219) COLORADO ST @(220) IDAHO
Play ON IDAHO in the first half in All games after playing a conference game.
The record is 17 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+12.6 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 12/22/2016
(219) COLORADO ST @(220) IDAHO
Play ON IDAHO in the first half in All games after playing a conference game.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 12/20/2016
(215) MEMPHIS @(216) W KENTUCKY
Play ON W KENTUCKY in the first half in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 29 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+19.1 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 12/20/2016
(215) MEMPHIS @(216) W KENTUCKY
Play ON W KENTUCKY in the first half in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 29 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+19.1 units)
BET NOW!


3:00 pm 12/10/2016
(103) ARMY @(104) NAVY
Play ON NAVY in the first half in All games when playing on a Saturday.
The record is 17 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.6 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS
Half Time Over


8:30 pm 1/2/2017
(281) AUBURN @(282) OKLAHOMA
Play OVER OKLAHOMA on the first half total in All games as a favorite of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line.
The record is 10 Overs and 0 Unders for the last three seasons (+10 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 1/2/2017
(277) W MICHIGAN @(278) WISCONSIN
Play OVER W MICHIGAN on the first half total in Road games in non-conference games.
The record is 29 Overs and 10 Unders since 1992 (+18 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 1/2/2017
(277) W MICHIGAN @(278) WISCONSIN
Play OVER W MICHIGAN on the first half total in All games in non-conference games.
The record is 35 Overs and 12 Unders since 1992 (+21.8 units)
BET NOW!


2:00 pm 12/28/2016
(243) NORTHWESTERN @(244) PITTSBURGH
Play OVER PITTSBURGH on the first half total in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 10 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+7.8 units)
BET NOW!


2:00 pm 12/28/2016
(243) NORTHWESTERN @(244) PITTSBURGH
Play OVER PITTSBURGH on the first half total in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 10 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+7.8 units)
BET NOW!


10:15 pm 12/27/2016
(241) BAYLOR @(242) BOISE ST
Play OVER BAYLOR on the first half total in All games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


8:00 pm 12/24/2016
(227) MIDDLE TENN ST @(228) HAWAII
Play OVER MIDDLE TENN ST on the first half total in All games when playing on a Saturday.
The record is 10 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+7.8 units)
BET NOW!


8:00 pm 12/24/2016
(227) MIDDLE TENN ST @(228) HAWAII
Play OVER MIDDLE TENN ST on the first half total in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 10 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+7.8 units)
BET NOW!


4:30 pm 12/23/2016
(223) LOUISIANA TECH @(224) NAVY
Play OVER LOUISIANA TECH on the first half total in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 11 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+8.8 units)
BET NOW!


4:30 pm 12/23/2016
(223) LOUISIANA TECH @(224) NAVY
Play OVER LOUISIANA TECH on the first half total in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 11 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+8.8 units)
BET NOW!


-----------------------------------


COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS
Half Time Under


8:30 pm 1/2/2017
(281) AUBURN @(282) OKLAHOMA
Play UNDER AUBURN on the first half total in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 0 Overs and 10 Unders for the last two seasons (+10 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 1/2/2017
(275) IOWA @(276) FLORIDA
Play UNDER FLORIDA on the first half total in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 3 Overs and 14 Unders for the last two seasons (+10.7 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 1/2/2017
(275) IOWA @(276) FLORIDA
Play UNDER FLORIDA on the first half total in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 4 Overs and 16 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.6 units)
BET NOW!


11:00 am 12/31/2016
(269) KENTUCKY @(270) GEORGIA TECH
Play UNDER KENTUCKY on the first half total in All games in a bowl game.
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders since 1992 (+8 units)
BET NOW!


11:00 am 12/31/2016
(269) KENTUCKY @(270) GEORGIA TECH
Play UNDER KENTUCKY on the first half total in Road games in a bowl game.
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders since 1992 (+8 units)
BET NOW!


2:00 pm 12/29/2016
(251) S FLORIDA @(252) S CAROLINA
Play UNDER S CAROLINA on the first half total in Road games when playing on a Thursday.
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders since 1992 (+8 units)
BET NOW!


5:30 pm 12/28/2016
(245) W VIRGINIA @(246) MIAMI
Play UNDER MIAMI on the first half total in Road games after playing a conference game.
The record is 1 Overs and 10 Unders for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)
BET NOW!


5:30 pm 12/17/2016
(209) APPALACHIAN ST @(210) TOLEDO
Play UNDER TOLEDO on the first half total in All games in games played on turf.
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders this season (+7.9 units)
BET NOW!


5:30 pm 12/17/2016
(209) APPALACHIAN ST @(210) TOLEDO
Play UNDER TOLEDO on the first half total in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders this season (+9 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS
Over

11:00 am 12/31/2016
(269) KENTUCKY @(270) GEORGIA TECH
Play OVER KENTUCKY on the total in All games in non-conference games.
The record is 7 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!


11:00 am 12/31/2016
(269) KENTUCKY @(270) GEORGIA TECH
Play OVER KENTUCKY on the total in All games in non-conference games.
The record is 10 Overs and 1 Unders for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)
BET NOW!


5:30 pm 12/30/2016
(261) S ALABAMA @(262) AIR FORCE
Play OVER AIR FORCE on the total in Road games after playing a conference game.
The record is 10 Overs and 1 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.9 units)
BET NOW!


3:30 pm 12/30/2016
(263) NEBRASKA @(264) TENNESSEE
Play OVER TENNESSEE on the total in All games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 9 Overs and 1 Unders for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)
BET NOW!


8:30 pm 12/28/2016
(247) INDIANA @(248) UTAH
Play OVER INDIANA on the total in All games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
The record is 39 Overs and 15 Unders since 1992 (+22.5 units)
BET NOW!


2:00 pm 12/28/2016
(243) NORTHWESTERN @(244) PITTSBURGH
Play OVER PITTSBURGH on the total in All games in all games.
The record is 11 Overs and 1 Unders this season (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!


2:00 pm 12/28/2016
(243) NORTHWESTERN @(244) PITTSBURGH
Play OVER PITTSBURGH on the total in All games in all lined games.
The record is 11 Overs and 1 Unders this season (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 12/22/2016
(219) COLORADO ST @(220) IDAHO
Play OVER IDAHO on the total in Road games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 17 Overs and 4 Unders since 1992 (+12.6 units)
BET NOW!


2:00 pm 12/17/2016
(201) UTSA @(202) NEW MEXICO
Play OVER NEW MEXICO on the total in All games in all games.
The record is 10 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+7.8 units)
BET NOW!


2:00 pm 12/17/2016
(201) UTSA @(202) NEW MEXICO
Play OVER NEW MEXICO on the total in All games in all lined games.
The record is 10 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+7.8 units)
BET NOW!


-----------------------------

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS
Under


11:00 am 12/31/2016
(267) LSU @(268) LOUISVILLE
Play UNDER LSU on the total in All games when playing on a Saturday.
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders this season (+7.9 units)
BET NOW!


2:00 pm 12/29/2016
(251) S FLORIDA @(252) S CAROLINA
Play UNDER S CAROLINA on the total in Road games when playing on a Thursday.
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders since 1992 (+9 units)
BET NOW!


2:30 pm 12/26/2016
(231) MARYLAND @(232) BOSTON COLLEGE
Play UNDER BOSTON COLLEGE on the total in All games in games played on turf.
The record is 3 Overs and 13 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.7 units)
BET NOW!


2:30 pm 12/26/2016
(231) MARYLAND @(232) BOSTON COLLEGE
Play UNDER BOSTON COLLEGE on the total in All games in games played on turf.
The record is 5 Overs and 18 Unders for the last three seasons (+12.5 units)
BET NOW!


8:00 pm 12/23/2016
(225) OHIO U @(226) TROY
Play UNDER OHIO U on the total in All games in all games.
The record is 1 Overs and 11 Unders this season (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!


8:00 pm 12/23/2016
(225) OHIO U @(226) TROY
Play UNDER OHIO U on the total in All games in all lined games.
The record is 1 Overs and 11 Unders this season (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!


2:30 pm 12/19/2016
(213) C MICHIGAN @(214) TULSA
Play UNDER C MICHIGAN on the total in All games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!


3:00 pm 12/10/2016
(103) ARMY @(104) NAVY
Play UNDER ARMY on the total in All games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


3:00 pm 12/10/2016
(103) ARMY @(104) NAVY
Play UNDER ARMY on the total in All games as an underdog.
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders for the last two seasons (+10.9 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

Complete 2015 college football bowl game results


COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF BOWLS


DATE / TIME (ET) BOWL LOCATION MATCHUP


Dec. 31, Noon Peach Atlanta Houston 38, Florida State 24


Dec. 31, 4 p.m. Orange: CFP semifinal Miami Clemson 37, Oklahoma 17


Dec. 31, 8 p.m. Cotton: CFP semifinal Arlington, Texas Alabama 38, Michigan State 0


Jan. 1, 1 p.m. Fiesta (Tickets) Glendale, Ariz. Ohio State 44, Notre Dame 28


Jan. 1, 5 p.m. Rose (Tickets) Pasadena, Calif. Stanford 45, Iowa 16


Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m. Sugar (Tickets) New Orleans Ole Miss 48, Oklahoma St. 20


Jan. 11, 8:30 p.m. National championship (Tickets) Glendale, Ariz. Alabama 45, Clemson 40


OTHER BOWLS


DATE / TIME (ET) BOWL LOCATION MATCHUP


Dec. 19, Noon Cure Orlando, Fla. San Jose State 27, Georgia State 16


Dec. 19, 2 p.m. New Mexico Albuquerque Arizona 45, New Mexico 37


Dec. 19, 3:30 p.m. Las Vegas Las Vegas Utah 35, BYU 28


Dec. 19, 5:30 p.m. Camellia Montgomery, Ala. Appalachian State 31, Ohio 29


Dec. 19, 9 p.m. New Orleans New Orleans Louisiana Tech 47, Arkansas State 28


Dec. 21, 2:30 p.m. Miami Beach Miami Western Kentucky 45, South Florida 35


Dec. 22, 3:30 p.m. Idaho Potato Boise Akron 23, Utah State 21


Dec. 22, 7 p.m. Boca Raton Boca Raton, Fla. Toledo 32, Temple 17


Dec. 23, 4:30 p.m. Poinsettia San Diego Boise State 55, Northern Illinois 7


Dec. 23, 8 p.m. GoDaddy Mobile, Ala. Georgia Southern 58, Bowling Green 27


Dec. 24, Noon Bahamas Nassau W. Michigan 45, Middle Tennessee 31


Dec. 24, 8 p.m. Hawaii Honolulu San Diego State 42, Cincinnati 7


Dec. 26, 11 a.m. St. Petersburg St. Petersburg Marshall 16, Connecticut 10


Dec. 26, 2 p.m. Sun El Paso, Texas Washington State 20, Miami 14


Dec. 26, 2:20 p.m. Heart of Dallas Dallas Washington 44, Southern Miss 31


Dec. 26, 3:30 p.m. Pinstripe Bronx, N.Y. Duke 44, Indiana 41 (OT)


Dec. 26, 5:45 p.m. Independence Shreveport, La. Virginia Tech 55, Tulsa 52


Dec. 26, 9:15 p.m. Foster Farms Santa Clara, Calif. Nebraska 37, UCLA 29


Dec. 28, 2:30 p.m. Military Annapolis, Md. Navy 44, Pitt 28


Dec. 28, 5 p.m. Quick Lane Detroit Minnesota 21, Central Michigan 14


Dec. 29, 2 p.m. Armed Forces Fort Worth, Texas Cal 55, Air Force 36


Dec. 29, 5:30 p.m. Russell Athletic Orlando, Fla. Baylor 49, North Carolina 38


Dec. 29, 7:30 p.m. Arizona Tucson Nevada 28, Colorado State 23


Dec. 29, 9 p.m. Texas Houston LSU 56, Texas Tech 27


Dec. 30, Noon Birmingham Birmingham, Ala. Auburn 31, Memphis 10


Dec. 30, 3:30 p.m. Belk Charlotte, N.C. Mississippi State 51, NC State 28


Dec. 30, 7 p.m. Music City Nashville, Tenn. Louisville 27, Texas A&M 21


Dec. 30, 10:30 p.m. Holiday San Diego Wisconsin 23, USC 21


Jan. 1, Noon Outback Tampa, Fla. Tennessee 45, Northwestern 6


Jan. 1, 1 p.m. Citrus Orlando, Fla. Michigan 41, Florida 7


Jan. 2, Noon TaxSlayer Jacksonville, Fla. Georgia 24, Penn State 17


Jan. 2, 3:20 p.m. Liberty Memphis, Tenn. Arkansas 45, Kansas State 23


Jan. 2, 6:45 p.m. Alamo San Antonio TCU 47, Oregon 41


Jan. 2, 10:15 p.m. Cactus Tempe, Ariz. West Virginia 43, Arizona State 42

 

[CNOTES]

Ranking all 40 college football bowl games for 2016-17: From Heart of Dallas to CFP


Rankings play a major role in the sport of college football in general, and that impact is felt in the bowl system. With the College Football Playoff being played within the bowl system, not only do rankings determine which four teams will play in the semifinals, but they also determine the non-playoff teams in the rest of the New Year's Six bowls.
So with rankings being such a major part of the bowl process, it only makes sense to rank the bowls, right?


That's what I've done. I've ranked every single bowl for you. All 40 of them. The method I used to do this wasn't incredibly scientific, but I did have somewhat of a method to my madness. I factored in where the teams in each game rank in the same formula I use to compile the Fornelli 50 and Bottom 25, the gaps between the teams, and then a bit of my own opinion as to how I think they match up.
The results are the best bowl rankings you'll find anywhere. I swear these rankings will be accurate or your money back.


So let's get to ranking.


All times Eastern


40. Heart of Dallas Bowl -- Army vs. North Texas -- Dec. 27, 12 p.m.: Using the rankings in my formula, North Texas is the worst bowl team in 2016. Combine that with an Army team that is a surprise this season, but isn't exactly a bundle of excitement, and this one probably won't be very fun.


39. Hawaii Bowl -- Middle Tennessee vs. Hawaii -- Dec. 24, 8 p.m.: Do you think Hawaii players dream of getting to go to Idaho or something on a bowl trip?

38. Birmingham Bowl -- South Florida vs. South Carolina -- Dec. 29, 2 p.m.: This is the third straight season that a team with Will Muschamp on its coaching staff will play in the Birmingham Bowl. It's the first time Muschamp will be there.


37. Miami Beach Bowl -- Tulsa vs. Central Michigan -- Dec. 19, 2:30 p.m.: This game has a chance to get interesting, but I just think there's such a gap between these teams that it could easily become a blowout.


36. Arizona Bowl -- Air Force vs. South Alabama -- Dec. 30, 5:30 p.m.: South Alabama is a strange team. It beat both Mississippi State and San Diego State, but it lost to teams like Louisiana-Monroe and Georgia Southern. Hopefully the good USA shows up, even if USA vs. Air Force is some kind of Civil War.


35. St. Petersburg Bowl -- Miami (Ohio) vs. Mississippi State -- Dec. 26, 11 a.m.: The Redhawks are a great story this season, recovering from an 0-6 start to get to 6-6, but I have a hard time imagining they give Mississippi State much of a fight.
34. New Orleans Bowl -- Southern Miss vs. UL-Lafayette -- Dec. 17, 9 p.m.: These two teams aren't very good, but they do have a hint of insanity in them. Maybe this one gets strange.


33. Military Bowl -- No. 24 Temple vs. Wake Forest -- Dec. 27, 3:30 p.m.: I wouldn't expect this game to last very long, so that's good. I just don't know how competitive it will be.


32. New Mexico Bowl -- UTSA vs. New Mexico -- Dec. 17, 2 p.m.: New Mexico games tend to feature a lot of points, and I can definitely see that being the case in this game. The question is whether or not it'll be close.


31. Bahamas Bowl -- Old Dominion vs. Eastern Michigan -- Dec. 23, 1 p.m.: Two great stories, as Old Dominion plays in its first bowl game after joining the FBS in 2014 and Eastern Michigan plays in its first bowl game since since 1987 (only its second ever). Like I said, great stories. I just don't know how great the game will be.


30. Cure Bowl -- Arkansas State vs. UCF -- Dec. 17, 5:30 p.m.: I was tempted to bump this game up a few spots just because it has the threat of a scoring bonanza living just beneath the surface.


29. Poinsettia Bowl -- BYU vs. Wyoming -- Dec. 21, 9 p.m.: BYU absolutely refuses to play in anything but a close game, and Wyoming's defense absolutely refuses to ever let the Cowboys pull away. This ranking isn't great, but there's a lot of upside possibilities here.


28. Quick Lane Bowl -- Boston College vs. Maryland -- Dec. 26, 2:30 p.m.: I don't know how exciting this game was going to be, but I have a sneaking suspicion it'll be close. For now, that's enough to get this game to No. 28, but this one has the potential to be Not Good.


27. Cactus Bowl -- Baylor vs. Boise State -- Dec. 27, 10: 15 p.m.: A lot of this depends on whether Baylor shows up excited to play in this game. If it does it could prove to be great. If it doesn't, it'll likely be a stinker.


26. Potato Bowl -- Colorado State vs. Idaho -- Dec. 22, 7 p.m.: Another fantastic story as Idaho goes 8-4 and reaches only its third bowl game in program history (first since 2009) ... and prepares to drop down to the FCS level in 2018.
25. Independence Bowl -- NC State vs. Vanderbilt -- Dec. 26, 5 p.m.: All right, so maybe my own personal affinity for Vanderbilt and its defense is causing me to rank the one a little higher than I should. Still, I think this one has a good chance of being good in that ugly kind of way.


24. TaxSlayer Bowl -- Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky -- Dec. 31, 11 a.m.: Two teams you probably didn't pay a lot of attention to this season that could get your New Year's Eve started off right. I'm telling you, I have a sneaking suspicion about this one. Just not a strong enough one to move it above No. 24.


23. Dollar General Bowl -- Ohio vs. Troy -- Dec. 23, 8 p.m.: Some of my favorite bowl games are the ones that offer a matchup between Group of Five teams that fly under-the-radar but are better than you think. This game does just that. It also features a 72-year-old coach (Ohio's Frank Solich) going against a 36-year-old coach (Troy's Neal Brown). Solich will literally be facing a coach half his age. It feels like the plot to a terrible Seth Rogen movie just waiting to be made.

22. Belk Bowl -- No. 22 Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas -- Dec. 29, 5:30 p.m.: I really wanted to rank this game a lot higher, but Arkansas' defense has just been so bad this season that there's too much blowout potential here. But there's upside, too.


21. Foster Farms Bowl -- Indiana vs. No. 19 Utah -- Dec. 28, 8:30 p.m.: It's hard to know what kind of Indiana will show up following the dismissal of Kevin Wilson, but if the Hoosiers show up ready to play, they could give Kyle Whittingham's bowl record a real test
.
20. Armed Forces Bowl -- Louisiana Tech vs. No. 25 Navy -- Dec. 23, 4:30 p.m.: Louisiana Tech's had a sturdy run defense this season, allowing only 3.68 yards per carry, but it hasn't really had to deal with anything like what Navy will be throwing at it. This one could get shootout-y.


19. Liberty Bowl -- TCU vs. Georgia -- Dec. 30, 12 p.m.: Here's the thing about this game. Both teams have talent, and both teams failed to live up to their own expectations this season. So the hope is that both are motivated to end the year on a high note. If that happens, we could have a very fun game on our hands.


18. Boca Raton Bowl -- Memphis vs. Western Kentucky -- Dec. 20, 7 p.m.: WKU coach Jeff Brohm won't be around for this game as he's off to Purdue. Even so, these are two offenses that like to move quickly and run a lot of plays. I'd advise setting aside at least four hours for this one, because it's going to last a while.


17. Pinstripe Bowl -- Northwestern vs. No. 23 Pitt -- Dec. 28, 2 p.
m.: Pitt and Northwestern just tend to play a lot of close games, even if they both tend to take very different routes getting there. It will be an interesting clash of styles, one that should be quite entertaining.


16. Music City Bowl -- Nebraska vs. No. 21 Tennessee -- Dec. 30, 3:30 p.m.: For a few hours on a late December afternoon, two fan bases will descend upon the city of Nashville and live their greatest dream: pretending it's still the 90s.


15. Texas Bowl -- Kansas State vs. Texas A&M -- Dec. 28, 9 p.m.: An old Big 12 matchup as the Wildcats and Aggies reunite. This is one of those games between a couple of solid teams that maybe doesn't look all that sexy at first but could prove to be a thriller.


14. Camellia Bowl -- Toledo vs. Appalachian State -- Dec. 17, 5:30 p.m.: This situation is always a dilemma for me. I like seeing good Group of Five teams get shots at Power Five opponents to see if they can prove themselves, but I also like seeing when they're pitted against one another in bowl games. It's like two underdogs trying to prove they're the underdog-iest, and it has all the makings of a great game.


13. Holiday Bowl -- Washington State vs. Minnesota -- Dec. 27, 7 p.m.: A couple of Power Five teams that have been good the last couple of years but are always overlooked. They both have their own styles, and they're both good at what they do. As soon as I saw this matchup, I knew it was going to be near the top of these rankings.


12. Hyundai Sun Bowl -- North Carolina vs. No. 18 Stanford -- Dec. 30, 2 p.m.: Remember what Baylor did to North Carolina's run defense in the bowl game last season? Well, now that same run defense gets to go against the Stanford offensive line and Christian McCaffery. We could see one helluva show here because the Tar Heels' offense is rather potent itself.


11. Outback Bowl -- No. 17 Florida vs. Iowa -- Jan. 2, 1 p.m.: This game should be ugly, but sometimes ugly is good. I don't expect a lot of points, and I don't expect a bunch of big plays. What I do expect is a lot of angry football and two teams fighting in a close game for four quarters. May the best punter win.


10. Russell Athletic Bowl -- Miami vs. No. 16 West Virginia -- Dec. 28, 5:30 p.m.: The Mountaineers struggled with the two Oklahoma schools in conference play, but don't get it twisted, this is still a good team. And Miami, for all of its failures to ever exceed expectations, has plenty of talent on its roster. There's a good chance this one is lit.


9. Las Vegas Bowl -- Houston vs. San Diego State -- Dec. 17, 3:30 p.m.: Year in and year out the Las Vegas Bowl always finds itself with a great matchup. This season is no different as Houston (minus Tom Herman) gets to take on the Mountain West champions. These are two good teams that should provide a compelling game.


8. Citrus Bowl -- No. 20 LSU vs. No. 13 Louisville -- Dec. 31, 11 a.m.: Lamar Jackson faded a bit toward the end of the season, but I'd still bet that he's Heisman Trophy-winning Lamar Jackson by the time this game is played, and he'll have a chance to attack what is a very good defense. That matchup alone makes this one a must-watch.


7. Alamo Bowl -- No. 12 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Colorado -- Dec. 29, 9 p.m.: This is just a game featuring two good teams that match up pretty well with one another. Colorado has been one of my favorite teams to watch all season long, and Oklahoma State is a team that can make any game interesting.


6. Sugar Bowl -- No. 7 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Auburn -- Jan. 2, 8:30 p.m.: This game lacks a little flair on the surface just because Alabama was the only good SEC team this year, so we get a Big 12 champion Oklahoma taking on an 8-4 Auburn. But it's also an 8-4 Auburn with a month to prepare, as well as an Oklahoma team that can put up points in a hurry. I'm not sure what the number will be for this one, but I'm already leaning toward the over.


5. Cotton Bowl -- No. 15 Western Michigan vs. No. 8 Wisconsin -- Jan. 2, 1 p.m.: Twice this season P.J. Fleck and Western Michigan have rowed their boats across Lake Michigan to beat Northwestern and Illinois. Now, once again, the Broncos will take on a Big Ten team from the other side of Lake Michigan, but this time they'll fly the plane down to Texas to do it. This game could be an absolute blowout, or it could be an epic upset. Either way, I want to watch it to see what happens.


4. Orange Bowl -- No. 11 Florida State vs. No. 6 Michigan -- Dec. 30, 8 p.m.: I'm sure plenty of people envisioned this matchup as a possible CFP semifinal before the season began. While neither team made it that far, this is still a really exciting pairing. Two powerful programs looking to make a statement heading into 2017.


3. Rose Bowl -- No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 9. USC -- Jan. 2, 5 p.m.: Once it became clear that Penn State would be in the Rose Bowl, I was hoping that it would be facing Colorado. That isn't what happened, but it's really hard to complain about a Rose Bowl matchup against USC. These are both teams that got off to slow starts and then tore things up down the home stretch.


2. Fiesta Bowl -- No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State -- Dec. 31, 8:30 p.m.: A rematch of the 2014 Orange Bowl. If you don't remember that one, Clemson beat Ohio State 40-35 in an awesome game. If we can get that kind of contest again, that would be just fine with me.


1. Peach Bowl -- No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Washington -- Dec. 31, 3 p.m.: Here's the thing. I never expect Alabama to lose anymore because it just happens so rarely. I don't expect Alabama to lose this game either, but -- BUT! -- giving Chris Petersen a month to prepare for an opponent has led to very surprising results in major bowl games in the past.

 

[CNOTES]

The case for and against an eight-team playoff in college football


Mark Emmert doesn't have control over the College Football Playoff format -- the NCAA doesn't run the Football Bowl Subdivision postseason and would graciously like to remind you of that -- but if he did, he'd expand it to eight teams.
And so would roughly half of college football-loving America.
Speaking Wednesday at the Learfield Intercollegiate Athletics Forum, Emmert said he prefers an eight-team format that includes automatic bids for champions of each Power Five conference.


However, as Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany noted on Wednesday, the field selection this year did not provide any movement toward an eight-team playoff.


The tires have been kicked on an eight-team playoff, casually or otherwise, even before major college football had a four-team playoff. With the three-year-old postseason format paying out hefty sums of money, one can venture to guess expansion is coming at some point in the future.


The question is whether that expansion is good or not.


The case for expansion


For the first two years of the playoff, one thing looked abundantly clear: Winning your conference championship was important. It wasn't a prerequisite for inclusion, but it did matter. All eight playoff teams in those two years were conference champs.


Then Penn State won the Big Ten. Suddenly, the qualifying statements perpetuated by the CYA mission of selecting the "four best teams" began pouring in.


The resumes between Penn State and Ohio State weren't close enough.
Divisions aligned by geography have watered down championship games.


To be clear, this isn't to say those statements are wrong. In many ways they're right. But can anyone remember this much dismissing of conference titles last year? How about the year before? Funny how it emerges when it's the team no one expects winning the conference.


The macro point here is that the first three seasons of the playoff have been filled with inconsistencies. Fans see this on a week-to-week basis with the mock rankings selection show. "Body clocks" is a pass one week and "game control" is a criterion the next. Flexibility is the beauty of having a human committee.


It's also what makes it extraordinarily frustrating. Having the Power Five conference champions as automatic bids absolutely takes away the drama, but it also takes away a lot of the frustration.
Additionally, two things fans love about March Madness take effect.


There's the Cinderella story, which would have been Western Michigan this year, and the team with the hot hand. No one denies that early-season losses by Oklahoma and USC matter, but it's also true they aren't the same teams now as they were in September. Expanding to eight at least allows for greater consideration of this.


The case against expansion


What do you want to reward? The best team in tournament play at the time of the tournament, or the best team in the land?


In the modern era of college football, championships have been won by teams with superior talent and excellent coaching. Each year, you could make an argument that only about 13-16 teams in the country will fit that description at the beginning of the year, and many of those teams will fall from title contention because of injuries or ill-timed poor play. If the playoff is expanded, you gain the element of postseason drama but risk losing a worthy champion because of a bad break. Let's leave the "Cinderella story" to college basketball and let college football crown its king with the four best teams in the country.


I also think expanding the playoff would require increasing the scholarship limit or cutting back on the number of regular-season games. Expanding the playoff would also decrease the urgency for conference championship weekend for teams that were "locks," like Ohio State was heading into Selection Sunday this season.


I'm not great at math but scholarships cost money, cutting regular season or conference title games means less money, and there isn't enough impetus for this current crop of conference commissioners to go through the headache or reworking the letter of the law without knowing more regarding the future of finances (media rights) in college football.

 

[CNOTES]

College football winners and losers: A look at the best and worst of the 2016 season


Just like that, it's all over.


Well, save for Army-Navy. But you get the point.


The 2016 college football regular season has come and gone. As it does every year, it went by quicker than expected. Still, this sport manages to cram a lot of highs and lows into a three-month period. From the emergence of Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson to the rise of Colorado, there were plenty of unexpected moments.
So, we here at CBS Sports want to get you caught up on all the noteworthy things that went down -- both the good and not so good. What were the highlights from the 2016 season? What were the moments some programs want to forget? We hash out the best and worst below.


Winner -- Alabama: The machine has some miles on it now, but Alabama remains as well-oiled as ever. In fact, there's an argument that Nick Saban's program -- undefeated this year -- is more dominant than ever. That goes against the grain of what we usually see in college football. The typical timeline for a coach to win a national title is within the first three or four seasons. Saban won his first with Alabama in 2009, three years after taking the job. But whereas most coaches struggle to maintain that level of success, Saban has built upon it. If the Tide win this year's national championship, it will be the program's fifth under Saban in a decade -- one for every two years.


Loser -- SEC: The Crimson Tide have played on a different level than the rest of college football, but there's another side to this story. The fact is the SEC was down in 2016. Like, way down. SEC on CBS color commentator Gary Danielson called this the weakest SEC he's seen in 11 years. Outside of Alabama, every other SEC team has at least four losses. That's a lot of mediocrity for a conference nestled in a region of the country that produces a majority of the best athletes every year.


Winner -- Big Ten: The Big Ten champion, Penn State, didn't get into the playoff, but no conference was better positioned for inclusion heading into December. Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan all had a shot, and there was at least an argument for two teams. If that's not the sign of college football's best conference in 2016, I don't know what is.


Loser -- Houston: Oh, what could have been. 2016 was supposed to be the magical year for Houston. It had a hot-name coach in Tom Herman, a talented roster and playoff-crashing aspirations. At first, the Cougars looked like a legitimate national threat with a 33-23 win over Oklahoma. However, a 46-40 loss to Navy derailed those hopes, and things went from bad to worse with losses to SMU and Memphis. (Yet sandwiched in between those was a dominating victory over Louisville. Go figure.) To top it off, Herman left to become the coach at Texas.


Winner -- Matt Rhule and Temple: How good of a coach is Rhule? The now-former Temple coach followed up a breakout season in 2015 in which the Owls won 10 games with another 10-win season this year. Plus, Rhule took this team a step further by winning the American Athletic Conference -- and with style, too, by beating Navy 34-10. Between the two 10-win seasons, this was easily his better coaching job. He did so well, in fact, that he left Temple for Baylor on Tuesday.


A Military Bowl vs. Wake Forest is still winnable, too, meaning Rhule's now-former program could wind up with 11 wins! Remember: It wasn't terribly long ago that the Owls were being kicked out of the old Big East for basically stinking up the joint. Al Golden deserves a ton of credit for resurrecting the program, but Rhule took it new heights. Now, Temple looks for his replacement.


Loser -- Notre Dame: The team's fall to 4-8 -- its first losing season since 2007 -- wasn't of the garden variety; it was spectacular in fashion. From losing an overtime thriller against Texas to blowing a lead to Virginia Tech, the Irish managed to come up short in just about every imaginable way. Defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder was fired in the middle of the season and an academic misconduct story led to vacated wins from the 2012 and 2013 seasons. Coach Brian Kelly will be back in 2017, but likely on a much warmer seat than the one he sat upon to start the 2016 season.


Winner -- Colorado: Enough can't be said about the job coach Mike MacIntyre has done in Boulder. The Buffaloes program, once proud, was dead in the water when he arrived four seasons ago -- and it had been lying there a while, too. After winning 10 games in his first three years, MacIntyre led Colorado to a 10-3 effort and won the Pac-12 South. Rightly, MacIntyre was named the Walter Camp Coach of the Year.


Loser -- Conference championships: Playoff bids were on the line in last week's conference championship games, thus their importance was palpable. But, boy, most of the applicable conference title games were a dud. Alabama crushed Florida and Washington piled it on against Colorado. Even the de facto Big 12 title game The ACC championship between Clemson and Virginia Tech was exciting, as was the Big Ten title game between Penn State and Wisconsin, but the latter didn't get the Nittany Lions into the playoff -- and that probably was never going to happen. Not every conference championship was bad, but it didn't turn out to be as eventful as it could have been.


Winner -- Penn State coach James Franklin: Whether Penn State should have been among the final four teams is a separate conversation that doesn't serve much of a purpose anymore. Let's take a minute, then, and recognize that Franklin's team emerged as the representative from a division featuring Jim Harbaugh, Urban Meyer and Mark Dantonio. If you had told me that was the case three months ago, I'd have called you crazy. And hey, a Rose Bowl berth isn't a bad consolation prize for the Big Ten champs. There have been questions about Franklin's ability to win big games against top opponents, but beating top-10 teams Ohio State and Wisconsin with the potential of USC isn't too bad of an answer.


Loser -- Ex-Texas coach Charlie Strong: There's not much more that can be said about Strong's three years at Texas that hasn't already been said, so I'll end with this: This was a terribly mismatched gig for both sides, for multiple reasons that would take too long to list. Would he have turned it around in Year 4? Perhaps, but there simply weren't enough signs that was going to happen. Strong is a good coach who should (and will) get another chance elsewhere. Texas got its guy in Tom Herman. In the end, this was the right move for all parties.


Winner -- Washington: It happens every year. There's one sexy offseason darkhorse everyone wants to get behind. However, that darkhorse selection doesn't always pan out. Washington was the team du jour of 2016, except the Huskies actually achieved the lofty goals set for them, and then some. Third-year coach Chris Petersen led this program to a Pac-12 championship and College Football Playoff appearance. Nothing ever happens in a vacuum, of course; Oregon's sharp decline and Stanford's rebuilding season helped pave the way for this run, but Petersen is an elite coach who has his program in position to win for a long time.


Loser -- Ex-Oregon coach Mark Helfrich: Things went bad for Helfrich and Oregon -- and in a hurry. Oregon canned Helfrich following a 4-8 season. Just two years ago, the Ducks were playing for a national championship with a Heisman-winning quarterback. However, a drop-off in recruiting, specifically at quarterback, was the death knell for Helfrich. Now, the program has to conduct a coaching search for the first time in 40 years.


Winner -- Western Michigan: Row that boat, baby. Row it straight to Arlington for the Cotton Bowl. Western Michigan finished as one of two undefeated teams at the end of the regular season. The Broncos' 13-0 record is the best in school history and represents the first MAC champion to enter bowl season unbeaten since Marshall in 1999. It's been a surprisingly quiet coaching market, so P.J. Fleck may just stick around a little bit longer.


Loser -- Baylor: There's only one place to start with Baylor, and that's the sexual assault scandal that rocked the university. Absolutely nothing -- not the firing of coach Art Briles, not the six-game slide by the football team to end the season, not the recruiting fallout -- comes close to matching the importance of that story. That will always be the case. But goodness, what a fall from grace by the Bears. From the coaching staff's social media revolt to the bizarre story of an associate athletic director allegedly grabbing a media member by the throat after the TCU game, things have come unraveled quickly. The laissez faire attitude of acting coach Jim Grobe, the sudden spring of #CAB shirts as well an appearance by Briles himself at an away game haven't helped matters.


Winner -- Idaho: The program announced this year it's dropping from the Football Bowl Subdivision to the Football Championship Subdivision. It's a complete reverse of what many programs have been doing, jumping from the FCS to the FBS in hopes of finding some sort of media rights pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. So let's hear it for the Vandals, who went 8-4 this year in the Sun Belt. According to CBS Sports' own Dennis Dodd, that's the best record for the program in nearly two decades. This is unimportant to many people, and that's fine, but Idaho is a program facing a harsh reality of trying to compete in major college football. So good for them.


Loser -- Tennessee: The "Championship of Life" joke is overplayed, so we'll skip it altogether. Besides, Tennessee fans probably aren't laughing at the way the 2016 season played out. The Vols, picked in the preseason to win the SEC East and finally take that ever-elusive next step forward, went 8-4 and failed to claim the division. Tennessee did finally beat Florida, but it lost three in a row during its midseason stretch, including a bad loss to South Carolina. The season-ending loss to Vanderbilt is probably what bumped the Vols from the Sugar Bowl to the Music City Bowl. Tennessee's injury report is lengthy, and that needs to be taken into consideration, but it's an excuse for only so long. Coach Butch Jones has not worked his tail off recruiting over the past few seasons to keep coming up short.


Winner -- John Carroll (again): You're darn right I'm dipping back down into the Division III ranks. As you may (or may not) recall earlier this year, John Carroll upset Mount Union 31-28. As far as lower level football is concerned, that's like beating Alabama. Well, John Carroll did it again in the DIII playoffs by upending Wisconsin-Whitewater 31-14. Again. that's like beating Ohio State. What I'm saying is John Carroll actually wants Bama.


Loser -- Heisman Trophy race: Chances are that Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson is going to win the Heisman. He's more than earned it. You don't tally up nearly 5,000 yards of offense and 51 touchdowns for no reason. Still, Jackson is probably going to back himself into winning the award after the Cardinals lost consecutive games to Houston and Kentucky to finish out the season. Some Heisman voters turned in their ballots early and there's no clear-cut No. 2 option who could have swept in late in the season to pick up extra votes. Jackson was a dynamic and exciting player, but this Heisman race was mundane for a variety of reasons.


Winner -- USC quarterback Sam Darnold: USC looked cooked after losing to Alabama and Stanford, and the heat was already on coach Clay Helton's seat. However, the switch at quarterback from Max Browne to Darnold has paid off. Darnold didn't win in his first start against Utah, but the Trojans haven't lost since. USC's offense is explosive again and Darnold's mobility adds an extra dimension that USC hasn't seen before. Helton's quarterback change is but one part in this team's turnaround, but it is a big part all the same.


Loser -- Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall: Every year, there's a coaching change that makes you go "Huh?" Mendenhall's departure from BYU to Virginia was that change a year ago. And did it ever fall on its face. The Cavaliers went 2-10 in Mendenhall's first season and never stood a chance. (Meanwhile, BYU went 8-4.) Granted, Mendenhall didn't inherit a particularly good situation, but this surprising coaching move didn't yield any results in Year 1.


Winner -- Defensive touchdowns: If there was ever a year for a defensive player to make a Heisman run, this would have been it. From three pick-sixes by Ohio State safety Malik Hooker to Alabama's defense scoring a majority of the Tide's 14 non-offensive touchdowns (two fumble returns by defensive end Jonathan Allen), this was an exceptional season for defenders scoring immediate points off turnovers at eye-popping rates.


Loser -- BYU quarterback Taysom Hill: Life isn't fair, and Hill is a prime football example of that. The senior sustained a season-ending (and thus career-ending) elbow injury against Utah State. It was the fourth time in five years his season was cut short by injury. When he was healthy, Hill was a fun quarterback who played fearlessly. Ultimately, that proved to be what kept him back from a more complete college career.


Loser -- All of us (Goodbye, Saturdays with Uncle Verne): No, this isn't here because we're CBS Sports. Honest. I am going to greatly miss listening to Verne Lundquist call the SEC on CBS broadcast every Saturday next fall. Uncle Verne became the voice of SEC football and "Oh my gracious!" should be as much apart of Southern vernacular now as "y'all." Brad Nessler will do a fine job and the broadcast will be every bit as good -- it'll just be a very different without Verne in the booth.

 

[CNOTES]

College Bowl Trends
December 11, 2016


For the longest time College Bowl games played before New Year’s Day were deemed minor bowls. Those played from January 1st out were the main or major bowl games.


That all changed when cable television entered the fray. Today, in order to fill a need for cable television broadcasting rights, there are no less than a whopping 40 bowl games, only to conclude with the College Football Playoff championship game on January 9th.


Hence, a handful of bowl games on the docket prior to New Year’s Day are considered of the heavyweight variety. Nonetheless, the bowl games are still primarily populated by two classes of teams: those who suffered disturbing late losses and fell out of major bowl consideration, and those who scraped and clawed and earned a bowl bid thanks to a strong second-half effort.


Let take a look this year’s bowl card shapes up. I’ll return next week and an in-depth look at the New Year’s Six and College Football Playoff games.


Conference Call


Like teams and coaches, conferences too develop bowl personalities.


Our database dug deep and found these noteworthy ‘best and worst’ conference trends. All results are ATS dating back as far as 1980, unless noted otherwise.


ACC
Best: 9-1 ATS dog of more than 4 points versus opponents off a SU win: Memphis
Worst: 2-10 ATS versus opponents off a SU favorite loss (Temple and Tulsa)


Big Ten
Best: 7-1 ATS off double-digit ATS win (Iowa)
Worst: 3-9 ATS versus opponent off SU favorite loss (Nebraska)


Big 12
Best: 5-1 ATS off SU underdog win (Kansas State)
Worst: 2-17 ATS as favorites of less than 8 points if scored 35 or more points last game (Oklahoma)


C-USA
Best: 16-4 ATS off double-digit loss (North Texas)
Worst: 1-11 ATS as dogs versus opponent off SU underdog win (Texas San Antonio)


Independent
Best: 7-1 ATS versus opponent off SUATS loss (Army)
Worst: 5-13 ATS versus opponent off SUATS win (BYU)


MAC
Best: 4-0 ATS off SU underdog win versus opponent off SU win (Eastern Michigan)
Worst: 3-13 ATS off double-digit loss (Toledo)


MWC
Best: 9-2 ATS as underdog versus opponent off SU loss (San Diego State)
Worst: 1-7 ATS as favorites of more the 3 points versus opponents off ATS win (Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico)


PAC 12
Best: 9-1 ATS as underdogs off consecutive wins (Washington)
Worst: 1-6 ATS versus opponents off SU underdog win (USC)


SEC
Best: 16-4 ATS as underdogs of more than 4 points off a SU loss (Arkansas, Auburn, South Carolina)
Worst: 2-8 ATS as double-digit favorites off a double-digit SU win (Alabama, Mississippi State)


Sun Belt
Best: 8-1 ATS as underdogs of 8 or less points versus .500 or greater opponents (Appalachian State, Arkansas State, La Lafayette)
Worst: 1-6 ATS as favorites of more than 3 points (Troy)


Second-Half Ups and Downs


The bowl team whose second half overall stats (from Game 7 out as opposed to the first six games of the season) improved the most was Idaho (surprise), whose +116 net yards per game improvement tops the pack.


Right on their heels was Appalachian State at +92 net yards per contest over the 2nd half of the season.


The bowl team whose overall team stats regressed the most from Game 7 out was Florida, who slipped a whopping -137 net YPG during the 2nd half of the campaign.


Nipping right on the Gators’ heels was Baylor as the Bears went backwards -135 net yards per game during their dramatic 0-6 SUATS season ending collapse.


In The Stats


Speaking of stat performances this season, the best teams overall ITS (In The Stats) in games against fellow bowl teams was (no surprise) Alabama, who was 10-0 ITS.


Other perfect ITS performers include Toledo (6-0), along with Houston and Miami Ohio (5-0 each).


Bowl teams that were beat up ITS against other bowl teams were Maryland (0-7), along with Hawaii and Memphis (each 0-5).


Tale Of The Tape


Another interesting slant is weighing teams and their performance in games against other fellow bowl teams this season.


The best bowl spread beaters against other bowl foes were Eastern Michigan and Temple, both going 5-1 ATS.


The biggest bowl spread money loser was Maryland at 0-7 ATS.


In games “In The Stats” (net overall yards versus opponent’s net overall yards), the biggest bowler Yards Per Game stat winner was Alabama (+247 net yards per game, with both Clemson and Louisville earning runner-up honors at +160 net YPG each.


Pre-New Year’s Day bowlers that got trounced on the field, or the biggest Yards Per Game stat loser was Maryland at -199 net YPG, with Boston College and Wake Forest in the neighborhood at -162 and -156 net YPG respectively.


You Gotta Be Kidding


Our well-oiled machine notes that if you were to simply pick the winner of a bowl game and you will likely beat the spread as well.


That’s confirmed by the fact that straight up bowl winners are 737-117-12 ATS in all bowl games since 1980. Now go find a winner.

 

[CNOTES]

Handicapping Motivation
December 12, 2016


Five Teams With Questionable Motivation Levels for Bowl Season

Handicapping college football bowl games is far different than handicapping a regular season contest. The biggest difference is the increased need to handicap motivation.


Which team wants to be there? Which team would rather just get their season over with?


It might seem too obvious, but motivation truly is the single most important factor in handicapping college football this time of the year. With that in mind, I've put together a list of five teams that might not be motivated for the upcoming postseason.


I would strongly suggest to follow beat writers via Twitter for the teams and read the press conferences of each team heading into their bowl matchups. Ask yourself if it seems like the team is excited and focused on the task at hand, or do the players and coaching staff seem ambivalent?


That will point you in the right direction and I'm expecting lackluster performances from these schools below.


Houston Cougars
Saturday, Dec. 17 - Las Vegas Bowl vs. San Diego State


The Houston Cougars got to play against ninth- ranked Florida State in the Peach Bowl last year and they ran past the Seminoles, 38-24. That game was on a much bigger stage than their game on the opening Saturday of bowl season this year against the San Diego State Aztecs.


The game is in Las Vegas, so you could argue that makes it more exciting for the players. On the other hand, you have to wonder in a situation like this if the team is motivated to go play a football game, or just to go spend some time in Las Vegas. It's very likely that many of the players have never been to Las Vegas, and there is definitely plenty to do in Sin City. Houston's opponent, San Diego State, is accustomed to coming to Las Vegas, because they play a road game at UNLV every other year.


The elephant in the room here is the fact that head coach Tom Herman left and is now running the show at Texas. Herman did great things with this program, and it has to be disappointing for the players to see him leave.


Cougars defensive coordinator Todd Orlando will be the interim coach for the Cougars in this game before leaving the school and joining Herman in Austin. Houston promoted within and named offensive coordinator Major Applewhite as the full time coach. This is an odd situation all the way around.


Temple Owls
Tuesday, Dec. 27 - Military Bowl vs. Wake Forest


Temple had another fantastic season. The Owls failed to cover the spread in their first game this year but then proceeded to rattle off 12 straight covers against the spread. Temple was supposed to be down this year after they lost a lot of talent on the defensive end, but the Owls won the American Athletic Conference title.


Why would they have questionable motivation? Head Coach Matt Rhule leaving is a large part of it. Rhule did a fantastic job at the school and he was rewarded with a new gig at Baylor. The Owls lost a great head coach, and the players really loved fighting hard for Rhule.


Defensively, Temple ranks in the top five in the nation in most of the major categories this year. However, another reason to question their motivation is their bowl opponent in Wake Forest, who ranks 125th out of 128 teams in total offense. The AAC was a good conference this year, and one would have expected Temple to get a tougher opponent than Wake Forest but since the group isn't a Power 5 conference, the bowl tie-ins don't present intriguting matchups.


The Owls (-13) are listed as one of the largest favorites this bowl season.


North Carolina Tar Heels
Friday, Dec. 30 - Sun Bowl vs. Stanford


North Carolina had higher aspirations than the Sun Bowl heading into the season and this was a team that appeared to be right on the cusp of big things. They played like a team that was on the verge of a breakout season at times but unfortunately for them, they were very inconsistent.


North Carolina ws blasted 34-3 at home to Virginia Tech after a strong 4-1 start. They did rebound with three consecutive wins, two coming on the road. However, the Tar Heels lost in two of their last three games to a pair of local rivals in Duke and North Carolina State as heavy favorites.


Head coach Larry Fedora's name has been thrown around multiple times with annual job openings that come up, and you have to think that hurts team chemistry a little bit. The Tar Heels skidded into the finish, and that's not an encouraging sign especially when you're facing a Cardinal team that closed the season with five straight victories.


Tennessee Volunteers
Friday, Dec. 30 - Music City Bowl vs. Nebraska


Remember when Tennessee was 5-0 and considered a playoff contender?


The Volunteers lost four of their final seven games and the defense has been shredded by everyone they have played of late. If they don't have an incredible offensive game, the Vols are toast. They allowed 635 and 740 yards in victories against Kentucky and Missouri respectively. They escaped those games but that poor production caught them in their final game as Vanderbilt posted 608 yards in a 45-34 victory over Tennessee.


Most people expected Tennessee to win at least 10 games this year, and now they have been terrible late in the season. Head coach Butch Jones is firmly on the hot seat -- again. They do face a struggling Nebraska squad in the bowl and playing in Nashville should give the Vols the edge but a short trip from Knoxville isn't exactly a great reward for the players.


TCU Horned Frogs
Friday, Dec. 30 - Liberty Bowl vs. Georgia


The TCU Horned Frogs were a major disappointment this year and that's being nice. The school was ranked in the Top 25 to begin the season and finished with a .500 record (6-6). Even worse, the Frogs burned bettors with a 3-9 ATS record and that includes a 0-7 ATS ledger in Fort Worth.


Gary Patterson is a good coach, so it is possible that TCU will be ready for this game. On the other hand, after one of the most disappointing seasons in recent program history, this team might just be ready to turn the page and look to next year.


TCU will take on Georgia in the Liberty Bowl and the postseason hasn't been great for the Frogs. TCU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games and while I'm not sure I will go against TCU, I definitely can't back them against a solid SEC school.

 

[CNOTES]

College Bowl Pick 'em
December 10, 2016


The 2016-17 bowl lineup is out with 40 games to watch over the next few weeks leading to the National Championship game in Tampa on Monday January 9. Alabama is the favorite to win it all as the Crimson Tide face Washington in one of two college football playoff games on New Year’s Eve.


During the holiday season, bettors have the opportunity to earn extra cash with "College Bowl Pick ‘em" contests where all you have to do is pick the winner, which isn’t as easy as it looks.


The most popular contest has you picking the winner of all 40 Bowl games and ranking them with confidence, starting with 40 as the most confident pick and counting all the way down to 1 as least confident.


Since Alabama is the overwhelming favorite to win it all, while laying 16 points in the Peach Bowl against Washington, I have selected the Crimson Tide as my most confident team to win its bowl at 40. Even though the Huskies have put together a terrific season at 12-1, it’s hard to see them traveling cross-country to Atlanta to pull off the upset of the Crimson Tide.


Michigan fell short of the college football playoff with its late-season loss to Ohio State, as the Wolverines were relegated to the Orange Bowl. The Wolverines will face Florida State as seven-point favorites on December 30 in Miami, as Michigan’s two losses this season came by a combined six points to Ohio State and Iowa. The Seminoles put up a dud in last season’s Chick-Fil-A Bowl loss to Houston, but are riding a four-game winning streak.


In Jim Harbaugh’s last two bowl games as head coach of Stanford in 2010 and Michigan last season, his teams have won by a combined score of 81-19. I’ve ranked Michigan at a 37 to win the Orange Bowl, sitting behind Air Force (39) and New Mexico (38) on the confidence meter.


Below are all 40 bowls ranked from 40-1. Happy Bowl Season!


2016-17 COLLEGE BOWL PICK 'EM STRAIGHT UP


Point Value Bowl Game Matchup Prediction


40 Peach Bowl Alabama vs. Washington Alabama


39 Arizona Bowl Air Force vs. South Alabama Air Force


38 New Mexico Bowl Texas-San Antonio vs. New Mexico New Mexico


37 Orange Bowl Florida State vs. Michigan Michigan


36 Rose Bowl Penn State vs. USC USC


35 Miami Beach Bowl Central Michigan vs. Tulsa Tulsa


34 Holiday Bowl Minnesota vs. Washington State Washington State


33 Idaho Potato Bowl Idaho vs. Colorado State Colorado State


32 Military Bowl Wake Forest vs. Temple Temple


31 Foster Farms Bowl Indiana vs. Utah Utah


30 St. Petersburg Bowl Miami-Ohio vs. Mississippi State Mississippi State


29 Bahamas Bowl Eastern Michigan vs. Old Dominion Old Dominion


28 Hawaii Bowl Hawai'i vs. Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee


27 Cactus Bowl Baylor vs. Boise State Boise State


26 Russell Athletic Bowl West Virginia vs. Miami-Florida West Virginia


25 Las Vegas Bowl Houston vs. San Diego State San Diego State


24 Independence Bowl North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt North Carolina State


23 Birmingham Bowl South Carolina vs. South Florida South Florida


22 Quick Lane Bowl Maryland vs. Boston College Maryland


21 Sugar Bowl Auburn vs. Oklahoma Oklahoma


20 Armed Forces Bowl Louisiana Tech vs. Navy Louisiana Tech


19 Citrus Bowl LSU vs. Louisville Louisville


18 Dollar General Bowl Ohio vs. Troy Troy


17 Pinstripe Bowl Northwestern vs. Pittsburgh Northwestern


15 Outback Bowl Iowa vs. Florida Iowa


16 Cotton Bowl Classic Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin Western Michigan


15 Outback Bowl Iowa vs. Florida Iowa


14 TaxSlayer Bowl Kentucky vs. Georgia Tech Kentucky


13 Music City Bowl Nebraska vs. Tennessee Nebraska


12 Fiesta Bowl Ohio State vs. Clemson Clemson


11 Heart of Dallas Bowl Army vs. North Texas Army


10 Poinsettia Bowl BYU vs. Wyoming BYU


9 Boca Raton Bowl Memphis vs. Western Kentucky Memphis


8 Texas Bowl Kansas State vs. Texas A&M Kansas State


7 Camellia Bowl Appalachian State vs. Toledo Toledo Rockets


6 New Orleans Bowl Southern Mississippi vs. Louisiana Lafayette Louisiana Lafayette


5 Sun Bowl Stanford vs. North Carolina Stanford


4 Cure Bowl Central Florida vs. Arkansas State Arkansas State


3 Alamo Bowl Oklahoma State vs. Colorado Colorado


2 Liberty Bowl TCU vs. Georgia Georgia


1 Belk Bowl Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech Virginia Tech

 

[CNOTES]

Bowl game writeups


Dec 17


New Mexico Bowl: Tex-San Antonio @ New Mexico


New Mexico stays at home for this bowl, its 4th bowl in last 11 years, all here in Albuquerque. Lobos won six of last seven games to finish 8-4; they’re 5-1 at home, 1-2 as a home favorite- their only home loss was 49-21 to Boise State. New Mexico likes to run ball; they ran for 300+ yards in seven games this year, had an astounding 568 rushing yards in 56-35 win in its finale vs Wyoming. UTSA’s QB is Dalton Sturm, named after Patrick Swayze’s character in Road House; Roadrunners are in first-ever bowl- they went 5-3 in last eight games, covered four of last five- none of their last eight opponents ran for more than 180 yards. New Mexico is 3-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread; UTSA is 2-2. C-USA non-conference road underdogs are 9-11 vs spread. Mountain West home favorites are 9-14. Mountain West team covered this bowl the last four years, with underdogs 3-1 vs spread in those games.

Las Vegas Bowl: Houston-San Diego State


Houston started season with upset of Oklahoma, then upset Louisville later in season, but they also lost to Navy-SMU-Memphis and now they’re in a lesser bowl than they thought and their coach is off to Texas, taking lot of assistants with him. Cougars scored 35-38 points to post upset wins in bowls the last two years; senior QB Ward (also leading rusher) needs a big game here. Houston is 9-0 when they allow less than 38 points, 0-3 when they give up 38+; Cougars are 0-6 vs spread in their last six games as a favorite. San Diego State lost its last two games, allowing 97 points; they’re 2-3 in bowls the last five years- they play on this field every other year- Aztecs beat UNLV here 52-14 LY. RB Pumphrey is one of nation’s best; Aztecs are 9-0 when they run for 200+ yards, 0-3 vs D-I teams when they do not. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-8 vs spread this season; Mountain West underdogs are 5-12.

Camellia Bowl: Appalachian State-Toledo


Toledo won three of its last four bowls, beating Temple LY; Rockets scored 32+ points in four of last five (3-2) bowl games. Toledo is 2-1-1 vs spread in games with a single digit spread; they allowed 249+ rushing yards in all three of their losses- they’re 9-0 when allowing less than 249 YR. Appalachian State won 31-29 over Ohio in this game LY, ASU’s first-ever bowl. Mountaineers won eight of last nine games this year after a 1-2 start, with loss to Troy; they’re 2-2 vs spread in games with a single-digit pointspread. ASU lost its season opener in OT at Tennessee. Junior QB Lamb is a 3-year starter for App State. Sun Belt teams are 8-7 in last 15 games with MAC opponents; Toledo opened this year with a 31-10 win over Arkansas State. App State won 45-38 at Akron in September. This is third Camellia Bowl; MAC/Sun Belt split first two, with totals of 61-60.


Cure Bowl, Orlando: Central Florida-Arkansas State


Central Florida was 0-12 LY after being 31-9 the three years before that, now they’re favored in a bowl game. Knights won three of their last four bowls, are playing in hometown here. UCF is 6-6 this year, 4-2 vs number in games with single-digit spread, 4-1 as a favorite- they lost last two games, allowing 83 points. Arkansas State is playing in its sixth straight bowl (under four different HC’s); they’re 0-2 in bowls under Anderson, losing 63-44/47-28. ASU is 7-5 this season after an 0-4 start that included a loss to a I-AA team. Red Wolves are 2-2 as underdogs this season. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine ASU games, 6-1 in UCF’s last eight games. Last two years, AAC teams are 4-2 vs spread when playing Sun Belt teams. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-9 vs spread this year. Sun Belt underdogs are 13-13. This is only second Cure Bowl, so no history to lean on here.


New Orleans Bowl: Southern Mississippi/UL-Lafayette


UL-Lafayette is playing in this bowl for 5th time in last six years; they won previous four, and were underdog three times- those are ULL’s only bowl appearances. Lot of people will make the trip east from Lafayette. ULL is 4-2 as an underdog this year, 7-2 vs number in games with a single-digit spread. ULL QB Jennings started 14 games for LSU before transferring. Southern Miss lost three of last four games, covered one of last eight; they had to beat La Tech as a 14-point dog to get bowl eligible. USM lost as a 10-point favorite to Troy of Sun Belt. Golden Eagles are 1-6 as a favorite this year, 1-2 in games with a single digit spread- they’re 1-3 in last four bowl games, they split two trips to this bowl in 2008-09. Underdogs won this bowl SU three of last five years; Sun Belt teams won four of the five.


Dec 19


Miami Beach Bowl: Central Michigan-Tulsa


Central Michigan lost 49-48/21-14 in bowls last two years; Chippewas are 3-6 overall in bowls, with four of last five decided by 3 or less points. CMU is 4-2 in games decided by 7 or less points. Tulsa is over .500 for first time in four years; they’re 3-2 in last five bowls, losing 55-52 to Va Tech LY. Chippewas lost four of last five games but did win at Oklahoma State; CMU is 1-2 as an underdog this year, 2-3 in games with double digit spread. Tulsa is 4-4 as a favorite this year, 2-4 vs number in games with double digit spread- they allowed 30+ points in six of last nine games. Favorite won/covered this bowl in first two years, with totals of 80-103. Weather isn’t a factor, being domed stadium. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-8 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 15-11.


Dec 20


Boca Raton Bowl: Memphis-Western Kentucky


Western Kentucky won its last seven games after a 3-3 start, with five of last six wins by 35+ points, but WKU lost its coach to Purdue; they’re 5-4 as a favorite this year, 1-2 in games wth single digit spread. Memphis is 1-2 as an underdog this year, 3-3 in games with single digit spread. Tigers allowed 42+ points in all four losses; they’re 7-0 when allowing less than 42 points. Memphis lost three of last four bowls, allowing 41 ots/game; they beat BYU in OT in nearly Miami two years ago. Hilltoppers won 49-48/45-35 in bowl games last two years; this is their 4th bowl in last five years. C-USA non-conference favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AAC underdogs are 7-10. AAC teams are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games vs Conference USA opponents. Over is 7-3 in last ten Memphis games, 6-2 in last eight WKU games.


Dec 21


Poinsettia Bowl: BYU-Wyoming


No love lost between these old conference rivals, who last met in 2010; BYU won last seven meetings, last four by average score of 39-8, but that was long time ago. BYU is 8-4 this year, with four losses by total of 8 points. Cougars are 4-3 vs spread as a favorite this year, 6-2-1 in games with a single digit pointspread. Because they’re an independent, most of their tougher games were earlier this season. Wyoming was 15-33 the previous four years; they’re 8-5 this season, losing last two games while allowing 83 points, 810 rushing yards. This is Wyoming’s first bowl in five years, and Bohl’s first bowl; he won multiple national titles at I-AA level. BYU lost its last three bowls, allowing 40.3 pts/game; favorites covered their last five bowl games. Two of Cowboys’ last three games were against San Diego State, but both were in Laramie. BYU won this bowl in 2012; Mountain West teams are 3-2 in last five Poinsettia Bowls.


Dec 22


Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise: Colorado State-Idaho


Idaho is dropping back to I-AA football after next season, so this has special meaning for them; it is Vandals’ first bowl since 2009, just their third bowl ever (2-0, both in this game). Idaho’s QB is Matt Linehan, whose dad is Cowboys’ OC. Vandals won their last three games, covered their last six; they’re 4-3 as an underdog this year, 2-3 in games with double digit spread. Colorado State is in its 4th straight bowl; they’re 7-5 SU, covering their last seven games. Rams are 2-2 as a favorite, 5-0 vs spread in games with double figure spread. Sun Belt underdogs are 12-12 vs spread; Mountain West favorites are 8-8. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in this bowl the last five years; Mountain West teams won three of last four Potato Bowls. Sun Belt teams are 7-5 vs spread in last dozen games against Mountain West opponents.


Dec 23


Popeye’s Bahamas Bowl: Eastern Michigan-Old Dominion


First-ever bowl for Old Dominion, which is in its third year of I-A football; first bowl for Eastern Michigan since 1987, their first/only bowl. EMU was 7-41 the last four years, jumped to 7-5 this year; Eagles are 8-2 vs spread in last ten games, 7-2 as an underdog, 6-2 in games with single digit spread. Four of EMU’s five losses are by 13+ points; five of their six I-A wins are by 7 or less. Old Dominion won its last five games (4-0-1 vs spread), scoring 41 pts/game; they’re 7-0-1 as a favorite this year, 6-0 in games with single digit spread. ODU’s senior QB Washington threw 28 TD’s with only four INTs; he is Monarchs’ 3rd-leading rusher. MAC teams are 14-7-1 vs spread in last 22 games vs C-USA opponents. Under is 8-2 in last ten EMU games, 0-3 in Monarchs’ last three games. First two Bahamas Bowls ended 49-48/45-31; this should be good.


Dollar General Bowl, Mobile AL; Ohio-Troy


This is first bowl in six years for Troy, which should have crowd edge given Mobile site; Trojans are 2-3 in bowls, with two of those games going OT. Ohio coach Solich (ex-Nebraska HC) is 4-8 in bowl games; Bobcats are 2-7 in bowls, losing last two 37-20/31-29- this is their 5th bowl in last six years. Ohio is 8-5 this year, 3-0 vs spread as an underdog, 3-2 in games with single digit spread- they used two QBs, a freshman and senior with mixed results. Troy lost two of last three games after an 8-1 start; they’re 4-5 as a favorite this year, 2-5 vs spread in last seven games, 1-3 in games with single digit spread- their junior QB is a 3-year starter. Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 3-3 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 15-11. Under is 10-0-1 in Bobcats last 11 games, 6-2-1 in Troy’s last nine. Underdogs are 3-2 SU in this bowl the last five years; Sun Belt teams won three of last four.


Dec 24


Hawai’i Bowl: Middle Tennessee @ Hawai’i


No line yet on this game because of unknown status of Middle Tennessee QB Stockstill. Blue Raiders are 4-5 as a favorite this year, 2-3 in games with single digit pointspread- they won their last game 77-56 over FAU. Hawai’i went 11-39 the last four years, is 6-7 now and is somehow in a bowl. Hawai’i allowed 40+ points seven times this year; they won last two games, but are 2-4 in games with a single digit pointspread. Rainbows lost last three bowls, allowing 50.7 pts/game- except for their great ’07 season their last four bowls have all been here, on their home field. Six of last seven MTSU games, five of last seven Hawai’i games went over total. Favorites won/covered last three Hawai’i Bowls. last four of which were all decided by 15+ points. Mountain West teams lost four of last five appearances in this game.


Dec 26


St Petersburg Bowl, Tropicana Field: Miami OH-Mississippi State


Miami was 0-6 at one point this year, in midst of a 4-year, 5-37 skid, then they won their last six games and are here- this Redhawks’ first bowl since 2010, their 2nd since ’04- they’ve got to be really excited. Miami is 5-2 as an underdog this year, 4-1 in games with a double digit spread. A 12-point favorite from the SEC with an 11am kickoff? Hmmm. Mississippi State is 3-2 in its last five bowls, scoring 44-34-51 the last three years, but that was with Dak Prescott at QB. Under is 7-3 in last ten Miami games, 0-6 in Bulldogs’ last six. SEC non-conference favorites are 10-18 vs spread this year; MAC underdogs are 15-11. Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years; MAC teams lost by 17-21 in last two appearances here. The game is in a dome; weather isn’t a concern, but it also is a baseball field- average total in this bowl last five years: 45.8.


Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit: Maryland-Boston College


In one three-game stretch in November, Maryland was outscored 149-13, but here they are, favored in a bowl. Terps are favored for first time since Oct 15 vs Minnesota (they lost 31-10). Maryland lost 31-20/45-21 in its last two bowls; their last bowl win was 2010. Boston College lost its last five bowl games (after winning 8 in row); their last bowl win was in in 2007. BC had to beat UConn/Wake Forest just to get to 6-6; Eagles are 3-3 as an underdog, 3-2 in games with a single digit spread; Maryland is 2-2 as a favorite, 1-3 in games with single digit spread. Underdog won this bowl SU three of last four years; Big 14 teams are 3-0 in this bowl the last five years. This season, ACC underdogs are 7-4 vs spread; Big 14 favorites are 15-11. This game is living proof there are too many bowl games.

Independence Bowl, Shreveport: NC State-Vanderbilt


Last five years, SEC teams are 10-4 vs ACC teams in bowls; ACC teams covered one of the three they were favored in. Vanderbilt is in its first bowl since 2013, when James Franklin was coach- they won last two bowls, are 4-2-1 all-time in bowls. NC State is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they lost 51-28 in Belk Bowl LY. Wolfpack are 2-5 in last seven games; they lost four in row at one point. State is 4-2 as a favorite, 3-2 in games with single digit spread. Vandy is 6-3 as an underdog this season, 4-4 in games with single digit spread. This season, ACC favorites are 17-9 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 5-3. Under is 7-1 in NC State’s last eight games, 5-3 in Sandy’s last eight. Vanderbilt (-7.5) beat NC State 38-24 at home in Music City Bowl in 2012; neither HC was here back then. Doeren is 2-1 in bowl games. Underdogs covered this bowl three of the last four years.


Dec 27


Heart of Dallas Bowl, Cotton Bowl: Army-North Texas


North Texas (+16.5) went to West Point Oct 22 and upset Army 35-18; UNT was +6 in turnovers in game where Cadets outgained North Texas 396-320- this is the only rematch of bowl season. This is unusual bowl: favorites won/covered this game the last five years, with all five games decided by 13+ points. North Texas beat UNLV 36-14 here three years ago, their only bowl since 2004. UNT is 2-5 all-time in bowls. Army is in its first bowl since 2010; they’re 3-2 all-time in bowls, with two losses by total of four points. Mean Green lost four of last five games; they’re 5-7 but the three 5-7 teams won their bowls last year. Conference USA non-conference underdogs are 9-11 vs spread this year. Under is 5-3 in last eight North Texas games.

Military Bowl, Annapolis: Wake Forest-Temple


Laying 13 points in a bowl with a team whose coach bolted for greener pa$ture$ is dangerous and not a great idea. Temple covered its last 11 games, is 10-3 SU, but Rhule is the new coach at Baylor now. Owls 6-1 as favorites this year, 6-1 in games with double digit spread- they won their last seven games, last six by 16+ points. Wake Forest is 6-6 but lost its last three games, scoring only 13 pts/game; Deacons are 5-1 as an underdog this year, 3-3 in games with a double digit spread. Wake is in its first bowl since 2011; they’ll be excited. Deacons covered four of last five bowls. Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years. ACC teams lost here two of last three years. Under is 5-1-1 in Wake’s last seven games, 5-0 in Temple’s last five. AAC favorites are 10-7 vs spread this year; ACC underdogs are 7-4.

Holiday Bowl, San Diego: Washington State-Minnesota


Underdogs covered last four Holiday Bowls, winning three SU. Pac-12 teams are 1-4 in this game the last five years. This year, Washington State lost its first two games, its last two games but went 8-0 in between; Coogs are 3-3 as favorites this year, 2-4 in games with a single digit spread. Minnesota is 2-2-1 as an underdog, 3-3 in games with a single digit spread. Leach is 6-5 in bowls, 1-1 here; Wazzu is 7-5 overall in bowls. Gophers are in 5th straight bowl; they’re 1-3 in last four bowls, ending skid with win over Central Michigan LY. Coogs are 1-3 this year when scoring less than 30 points; Minnesota held nine of 12 opponents under 30. Last two years, Pac-12 teams are 3-8 vs Big 14 teams- they’re 4-8-1 vs spread in last 13 games when favored against a Big 14 squad. Over is 6-3 in Coogs’ last nine games, 4-2 in Gophers’ last six.


Cactus Bowl, Chase Field- Phoenix: Boise State-Baylor


Baylor started season 6-0, wound up 6-6; now they’ve hired Temple coach Rhule; not sure how it affects this game. Bears allowed 32.8 pts/game during its skid. Baylor was 3-2 in its last five bowls under Briles, with average total of 92.4. Baylor is 1-1 as an underdog, 1-4 in games with a single digit spread. Boise State is 10-2, covered one of its last seven games; they’re 4-8 vs spread, 0-2 in games with single digit spread. Broncos won four of last five bowls, scoring 40 pts/game; they won 55-7/38-30 in last two bowls. Underdogs covered three of last four Cactus Bowls; Big 12 teams are 4-1 in this game the last five years. Under is 7-4 in Baylor games this year, three of last four Boise games went over. Big X underdogs are 2-4 this season; Mountain West favorites are 8-8.

 

[CNOTES]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 1
December 15, 2016


SATURDAY, DEC. 17


Matchup Skinny Edge


UTSA vs. NEW MEXICO (New Mexico Bowl)...Lobos 6-1 SU, 5-2 vs. line last seven in 2016. UTSA just 2-3-1 vs. line away TY, but 4-2-1 as dog. UNM "over" 12-2 last 14!
“Over,” based on New Mexico “totals” trends.


HOUSTON vs. SAN DIEGO STATE (Las Vegas Bowl)...UH covered just one of last eight this season (1-6-1) and dropped last three SU and vs. line away after 13-1-1 spread mark previous 15 away from home. Though Cougs have won and covered bowls last two years. Aztecs no covers last three this season and just 3-8 vs. spread last 11 vs. non-MW foes. Rocky Long 3-7 vs. line in bowls with New Mexico & SDSU.
Houston, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE vs. UCF (Cure Orlando Bowl)...Sixth straight bowl for Ark State, which has lost last two SU and vs. line. Also no covers last six vs. non-Belt foes. But Red Wolves covered 6 of last 8 this season. ASU also 6-8 last 14 as dog. UCF playing in old home stadium for this one, was 8-4 overall vs. line for Frost and 5-2 as chalk in 2016. Sun Belt sides only 1-4 vs. line in bowls last season.
Slight to UCF, based on recent trends.


APPALACHIAN STATE vs. TOLEDO (Camellia Bowl)...Toledo has won and covered bowls past two seasons, 12-2-1 vs. spread last 15 away from Glass Bowl. App back at Camellia Bowl, where it won but failed to cover LY vs. Ohio. Mounties 5-1 vs. line away from Boone this season. Sun belt 1-4 vs. spread in bowls last year.
Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS vs. UL-LAFAYETTE (New Orleans Bowl)...Fifth New Orleans Bowl in last six seasons for ULL, which is 4-0 SU and vs. line in those previous appearances! Ragin’ Cajuns covered last 4 in 2016 and 4 of last 5 as dog. Prior to upset over La Tech in final to get bowl-eligible, USM had dropped seven straight spread decisions this season.
ULL, based on team trends.

MONDAY, DEC. 21


Matchup Skinny Edge

CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. TULSA (Miami Beach Bowl)...CMU dropped 3 of last 4 as dog this season but has covered 10 of previous 14 in role. Chips dropped 7 of last 9 vs. spread in 2016 after covering 12 of previous 16. Tulsa rolled down stretch TY, 5-1 SU last 6 and 5-1-1 vs. line last seven. Golden Hurricane 10-2-1 vs. number away from home since Philip Montgomery arrived as HC in 2015 (11-2-1 last 14 since late 2014), and covered bowl vs. VPI last year.
Tulsa, based on team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2
December 15, 2016


TUESDAY, DEC. 20


Matchup Skinny Edge


MEMPHIS vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (Boca Raton Bowl)...WKU 5-1 vs. line last six TY but just 2-2- vs. spread away from home this season. C-USA teams were 3-1 vs. points in bowls last year. Memphis, however, covered 3 of last 4 this season and is 6-2-1 last nine as dog.
Slight to Memphis, based on extended dog mark.


WEDNESDAY, DEC. 21


Matchup Skinny Edge

BYU vs. WYOMING (Poinsettia Bowl)...Old MW and WAC rivals, teams haven’t met since 2010. Sitake 9-3 vs. points in BYU debut season and covered all six away from Provo, though Cougs have lost and failed to cover last three bowls and just 3-3 as chalk this season. Bohl 8-4-1 vs. line in 2016 and 5-1 as dog this season.
Wyoming, based on dog mark and extended BYU bowl trends.


THURSDAY, DEC. 22


Matchup Skinny Edge


COLORADO STATE vs. IDAHO (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)...CSU closed its season in a rush with covers in its last seven games and 9-1-1 last 11 on board. Though Rams have failed to cover their bowl games the past three seasons. Idaho almost as hot vs. spread, covering last seven in 2016, though Vandals just 1-3 vs. line outside of Sun Belt. Idaho 16-8 as dog and 15-4 against number away from Kibbie Dome since 2014. First Vandals bowl since 2009 Humanitarian on this same field, beating Bowling Green 43-42.
Slight to Idaho, based on extended trends.


FRIDAY, DEC. 23


Matchup Skinny Edge


EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. OLD DOMINION (Bahamas Bowl)...Teams met in 2014 & ‘15, with ODU winning SU on each but failing to cover. EMU was 9-3 vs. line this season in major turnaround, also 4-1 vs. spread away from home. But ODU was also 9-3 vs. number as well as SU, and closed with five straight wins and covers with all wins by double-digit margins. In fact all nine Monarchs wins this season by double-digits margins. First-ever bowl for ODU! EMU first bowl since 1987 California Bowl in Fresno when upsetting San Jose State, 30-27!
ODU, based on recent trends.


LOUISIANA TECH vs. NAVY (Armed Forced Bowl)...Navy has won and covered last three years in bowls, while La Tech has won and covered last two years in bowls. Mids 7-4-2 vs. spread this season, 17-8-2 last 27 on board, though only 3-5 vs. line last seven away from Annapolis. Mids also “over” 12-6 last 18 since late 2015, but just 8-7 vs. line last 15 away from Ruston. Skip Holtz 26-14 vs. spread since 2014 and “over” 13-4 last 17 since mid 2015.
“Over,” based on “totals” trends.


OHIO vs. TROY (Dollar General Bowl)...Rematch of 2010 New Orleans Bowl won big by Troy, 48-21. Solich, however, has covered 3 of 4 bowls since, and is 8-1 vs. spread last nine away from home as well as covers in last six as dog. Trojans only 2-5 vs. spread last seven this season after covers in first five out of the chute. MAC teams recovered to 4-3 bowl spread mark LY after struggles in previous seasons.
Ohio, based on recent Solich trends.


SATURDAY, DEC. 24


Matchup Skinny Edge


MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. HAWAII (Hawaii Bowl)...Middle has lost and failed to cover last three bowls since 2010 and 1-4 SU and vs. line for Rick Stockstill in bowls since 2006. Blue Raiders, however, 6-2 vs. spread last eight vs. non-C USA teams. Nick Rolovich no covers last five this season and just 1-4 vs. spread at Aloha Stadium, and Rainbow Warriors just 1-10 last 11 and 2-13 last 15 vs. spread as host. First bowl for Hawaii since 2010 in this same Hawaii Bowl.
Slight to MTSU, based on extended Hawaii home negatives.


MONDAY, DEC. 26


Matchup Skinny Edge


MIAMI-OHIO vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (St. Petersburg Bowl)...MSU makes bowl with 5-7 SU mark, but remember all sub-.500 bowl teams won SU and covered last season. SEC teams were 8-3 vs. spread in bowls a year ago, including MSU with a win over NCS in Belk Bowl. Dan Mullen 4-2 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2010. Bulldogs, however, only 1-5 as chalk this season. Miami-O covered five of last six in 2016, and Chuck Martin 12-5 vs. spread as dog away from home since 2014.
Slight to Miami-Ohio, based on team trends.


MARYLAND vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (Quick Lane Bowl) ...Former ACC rivals last met in 2013. Terps lost six of last nine SU this season and dropped 8 of 12 spread decisions in Durkin debut. Also no covers last five away from College Park. BC 3-2 as dog away from Chestnut Hill TY and 9-3-1 last 13 in role.
BC, based on team trends.
.
VANDERBILT vs. NC STATE (Independence Bowl)... Vandy covered six of last nine this season and was 6-3 as dog in 2016. Derek Mason 17-10 as dog since 2014. NCS 8-4 vs. line in 2016 and makes third straight bowl visit for Doeren, and Pack is 9-4 as chalk for Doeren since last season. Note SEC 8-3 vs. line in bowls LY, ACC 4-6 vs. spread.
Vandy, based on recent trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
December 15, 2016


TUESDAY, DEC. 27


Matchup Skinny Edge


ARMY vs. NORTH TEXAS (Dallas Bowl)...Rematch of UNT’s 35-18 win at West Point on Oct. 22. UNT won this bowl three years ago vs. UNLV. Mean Green 9-7-1 last 18 as dog, though mean Green dropped 4 of last 5 vs. spread this season. Army 3-5 vs. line last eight into Navy game, Army 7-9-2 last 18 on board. Army “under” 9-4 last 13 since late 2015, though first meeting “over” in October.
Slight to North Texas and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


WAKE FOREST vs. TEMPLE (Military Bowl)...Temple plays its second straight game at Annapolis. Owls remarkably covered last 12 on board this season and are 35-16 vs. spread since 2013. Wake 5-1 as dog this season and 9-2 last 11 in role.
Temple, based on recent trends.


WASHINGTON STATE vs. MINNESOTA (Sun Bowl)...Mike Leach has covered his last two bowls with Wazzu (2013 & 2015). Leach 8-4 vs. line last 12 away from Pullman, though 0-2 as visiting chalk this season. Fifth straight bowl for Gophers (1-3 SU and 2-2 vs. line in those) who were 3-1-1 as dog this season and now 16-7-1 in role since 2013.
Slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.


BAYLOR vs. BOISE STATE (Cactus Bowl)...Baylor faded badly down the stretch, losing last six SU and only 1-5 vs. line in those games, ears 3-9 vs. spread this season for Jim Grobe and just 1-5 vs. line away from Waco. Bears 3-3 SU and vs. line last six years in bowls. Bryan Harsin 2-0 SU and vs. line in bowls last two years for Boise, which is 6-2 vs. spread last eight bowls. Broncos 8-3-1 vs. spread last 12 away from blue carpet (where they have had trouble covering numbers lately).
Boise State, based on team trends.


WEDNESDAY, DEC. 28


Matchup Skinny Edge

NORTHWESTERN vs. PITT (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...NU 3-2 as dog this season and 12-8 in role since 2014. Pat Fitz 1-5 SU but 4-2 vs. line in bowls since 2008. Pitt 2-5 as chalk this season and has lost and failed to cover last two and four of last five bowls. This is ninth straight bowl for Panthers. Pitt also “over” 11-1 this season!
Northwestern and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

WEST VIRGINIA vs. MIAMI-FLA. (Russell Athletic Bowl)...Streaky Canes won and covered first four this season, lost and failed to cover next four, then ended season with wins and covers in final four. Mark Richt was 6-3 vs. spread in his last nine bowls at Georgia. Canes however have failed to cover their last four bowls. Holgorsen no covers last two bowls and Mounties 1-5 vs. spread last six bowls. WVU 1-1 as dog this season and 1-4 vs. line in role since a year ago.
Miami, based on team trends.


INDIANA vs. UTAH (Foster Farms Bowl)...Kyle Whittingham 8-1 SU, 7-2 vs. spread in bowls, and Utes 12-1 SU last 13 bowls since ‘99 Las Vegas Bowl vs. Fresno, and 10-2 vs. spread last 12 in bowls. Utes 2-4 as chalk this season, just 3-6 last 9 in role. IU mostly 50-50 in all categories past few years.
Utah, based on bowl trends.
.
KANSAS STATE vs. TEXAS A&M (Texas Bowl)...Bill Snyder 1-5 SU and vs. line in bowls since KSU return, but also was 5-1 this season as dog and 27-13 last 40 in dog role. A&M 2-4 SU last six and 0-7-1 vs. line last eight this season. Sumlin 17-32-2 vs. spread since 2013.
Kansas State, based on team trends.


THURSDAY, DEC. 29


Matchup Skinny Edge


SOUTH FLORIDA vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Birmingham Bowl)...Muschamp just 5-7 vs. line this season, 14-21-1 last 36 on board with his Florida and Gamecock teams. Muschamp 3-5 as dog this season. USF 17-7-1 vs. spread since last season, 11-3-1 as chalk that span.
South Florida, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Belk Bowl)...Bielema has won and covered bowls past two years, also 13-6 as dog past three seasons (though just 4-4 TY). VPI finished season with covers in its last three but failed to cover four of last five as chalk this term.
Slight to Arkansas, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE vs. COLORADO (Alamo Bowl)...Old Big XII rivals have not met since 2009. Coach Mac has never coached in a bowl (left SJSU before 2012 Military Bowl). Buffs dropped last two vs. line TY but still 10-3 vs. spread this season and 15-5 last 20 on board. Gundy 3-5 vs. spread last eight bowls, only 2-2 as dog this season.
Colorado, based on team trends.


FRIDAY, DEC. 30


Matchup Skinny Edge


TCU vs. GEORGIA (Liberty Bowl)...Frogs won and covered their bowls the past two seasons but Patterson had failed to cover in previous five bowls. TCU only 3-9 vs. spread this season but were 3-2 vs. line away from Fort Worth. Kirby Smart 5-7 vs. points in Georgia debut, 1-3 vs. line non-SEC
Slight to Georgia, based on recent trends.

NORTH CAROLINA vs. STANFORD (Sun Bowl)...Heels have lost and failed to cover bowls past two seasons, while David Shaw is 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 vs. line in bowls since 2011. Stanford 5-1 vs. line away from Farm this season, 10-2 last 12 and 13-3 last 16 in role. Fedora 2-2 as dog this season, 7–12 in role since arriving at UNC in 2012.
Stanford, based on team trends.


SOUTH ALABAMA vs. AIR FORCE (Arizona Bowl)...Force 5-1 vs. line last six bowls. Jags 3-9 vs. line this season, 11-25-1 vs. spread overall since 2014, and 1-6 last seven vs. line as dog away.
Air Force, based on USA negatives.


NEBRASKA vs. TENNESSEE (Music City Bowl)...Butch Jones has won and covered big in bowls past two seasons but Vols only 4-7-1 vs. line this season and just 1-3-1 vs. number away from Knoxville. Huskers have covered last three bowls and Mike Riley 6-3 vs. spread in bowls. Huskers 10-5-1 vs. line last 16 on board.
Nebraska, based on team trends.


FLORIDA STATE vs. MICHIGAN (Orange Bowl)...Jimbo no covers last three bowls but covered previous three bowls. FSU 3-1 as dog since last season and 6-3 vs. points last nine away from Doak Campbell. Harbaugh 2-1 SU and vs. line in previous bowls, but Michigan just 9-10 vs. points last 19 on board and 4-4 as chalk away from Ann Arbor since last season.
Slight to Florida State, based on team trends.


SATURDAY, DEC. 31


Matchup Skinny Edge


LSU vs. LOUISVILLE (Citrus Bowl)...LSU -2 SU and vs. line after Orgeron took over early in season. Les Miles was 1-4 vs. line last five years in bowls. Petrino however no covers last three this season and 2-6 vs. spread last eight in 2016.
Slight to LSU, based on Orgeron trends.


KENTUCKY vs. GEORGIA TECH (Taxslayer Gator Bowl)...First bowl for Cats since 2010 Compass Bowl with Joker Phillips. UK 7-2 vs. line last nine this season and 5-1 last six as dog. Paul Johnson just 2-5 vs. spread in bowls with GT and no covers last five as chalk away from home.
Kentucky, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON vs. ALABAMA (CFP Peach Bowl)... Nick only 1-3 vs. line last four bowls, but 6-4 in role since arriving at Bama in 2007. Tide 8-3-2 vs. line this season, 13-5-2 last 20 on board. Also 11-3 vs. line last 14 away from Tuscaloosa. Chris Petersen only 5-6 as dog with Huskies, though Petersen 6-3 vs. spread in bowls with Boise and U-Dub.
Alabama, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE vs. CLEMSON (CFP Fiesta Bowl)...Dabo beat Urban Meyer in Orange Bowl three years ago. Dabo 9-3 last 12 as dog, and Clemson has covered in last five bowl games. Buckeyes have covered last three bowls and Urban Meyer 10-2 vs. spread in bowls, though OSU only 2-6 vs. spread last eight this season and 10-13 last 23 vs. spread as chalk.
Clemson, based on team trends.


MONDAY, JAN. 2


Matchup Skinny Edge


IOWA vs. FLORIDA (Outback Bowl)...Iowa closed hot with wins and covers in last three this season. Ferentz has lost and failed to cover big in bowls the past two seasons, but Iowa had covered 5 of 6 bowls prior to the past two seasons. Hawkeyes 10-7 last 17 as dog. McElwain however only 6-10 last 16 on board and is 0-2 vs. line in bowls (he had left CSU before 2014 Las Vegas Bowl) and 2-6 vs. spread last eight away from Swamp.
Iowa, based on recent trends.


WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. WISCONSIN (Cotton Bowl)...WMU 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls past two seasons, and Fleck 10-3 as dog since 2014. Broncos have also covered last six outside of MAC and 27-13 last 40 vs. spread. Wiscy has won and covered as dog in bowls past two seasons and Paul Chryst 11-4 vs. spread last 15 on board. MAC teams 4-3 vs. line in bowls LY.
Slight to WMU, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN CAL vs. PENN STATE (Rose Bowl)...James Franklin won and covered last eight in 2016 and 8-0-1 vs. line last nine in 2016. Franklin 4-1 as dog this season after 0-5 mark in role LY. SC also won last 8 SU (7-1 vs. line) though Trojans just 1-3 vs. line in last four bowls. Trojans won and covered last three away from Coliseum TY after losing previous seven away vs. spread.
Slight to Penn State, based on team trends.

AUBURN vs. OKLAHOMA (Sugar Bowl)...Rematch of ‘72 Sugar Bowl! Bob Stoops just 3-7 vs. line last ten bowls. Though Sooners did close fast with covers last three in 2016. Malzahn 2-0-1 as dog TY but was just 1-6 in role previous two seasons.
Slight to Auburn, based on extended Stoops bowl woes.

 

[CNOTES]

Minnesota players threaten boycott of Holiday Bowl
December 15, 2016

Minnesota football players are threatening to boycott the Gophers' appearance in the Holiday Bowl in protest of the school's decision to suspend 10 players following an investigation into an alleged sexual assault in September, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported Thursday.


According to the report the players were expected to announce Thursday evening that they will boycott all football practices and team activities, and the Dec. 27 bowl game if necessary.


The school announced Tuesday that Ray Buford, Carlton Djam, Seth Green, KiAnte Hardin, Dior Johnson, Tamarion Johnson, Kobe McCrary, Antonio Shenault, Mark Williams and Antoine Winfield Jr. were suspended.


A players-only meeting was held Thursday morning, according to the Star Tribune. The players then informed coach Tracy Claeys of the meeting and that they would halt all practices and football-related activities. They also said they would boycott the bowl game against Washington State if the suspended players were not reinstated.


The suspensions came several weeks after a criminal investigation resulted in no arrests or charges.


Some of the players were accused by a female student of a sexual assault the night before the Gophers' first game on Sept. 2. How the other suspended players were involved is not immediately clear.


The woman's claims were documented through police reports and led to an investigation.


Claeys said Wednesday he could not comment about the suspensions.


"I'm not going to answer any more questions about that," he said Wednesday. "This is about the game, the University of Minnesota vs. Washington State. We have enough guys to play. Last time I checked, it only takes 11 on each side of the ball and a few for special teams. So we've got enough left to do that and we'll get them prepared to go and our kids will play hard."


The Gophers have an 8-4 record this season.

 

[CNOTES]

Bowl game writeups


Dec 17


New Mexico Bowl: Tex-San Antonio @ New Mexico


New Mexico stays at home for this bowl, its 4th bowl in last 11 years, all here in Albuquerque. Lobos won six of last seven games to finish 8-4; they’re 5-1 at home, 1-2 as a home favorite- their only home loss was 49-21 to Boise State. New Mexico likes to run ball; they ran for 300+ yards in seven games this year, had an astounding 568 rushing yards in 56-35 win in its finale vs Wyoming. UTSA’s QB is Dalton Sturm, named after Patrick Swayze’s character in Road House; Roadrunners are in first-ever bowl- they went 5-3 in last eight games, covered four of last five- none of their last eight opponents ran for more than 180 yards. New Mexico is 3-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread; UTSA is 2-2. C-USA non-conference road underdogs are 9-11 vs spread. Mountain West home favorites are 9-14. Mountain West team covered this bowl the last four years, with underdogs 3-1 vs spread in those games.


Las Vegas Bowl: Houston-San Diego State


Houston started season with upset of Oklahoma, then upset Louisville later in season, but they also lost to Navy-SMU-Memphis and now they’re in a lesser bowl than they thought and their coach is off to Texas, taking lot of assistants with him. Cougars scored 35-38 points to post upset wins in bowls the last two years; senior QB Ward (also leading rusher) needs a big game here. Houston is 9-0 when they allow less than 38 points, 0-3 when they give up 38+; Cougars are 0-6 vs spread in their last six games as a favorite. San Diego State lost its last two games, allowing 97 points; they’re 2-3 in bowls the last five years- they play on this field every other year- Aztecs beat UNLV here 52-14 LY. RB Pumphrey is one of nation’s best; Aztecs are 9-0 when they run for 200+ yards, 0-3 vs D-I teams when they do not. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-8 vs spread this season; Mountain West underdogs are 5-12.

Camellia Bowl: Appalachian State-Toledo


Toledo won three of its last four bowls, beating Temple LY; Rockets scored 32+ points in four of last five (3-2) bowl games. Toledo is 2-1-1 vs spread in games with a single digit spread; they allowed 249+ rushing yards in all three of their losses- they’re 9-0 when allowing less than 249 YR. Appalachian State won 31-29 over Ohio in this game LY, ASU’s first-ever bowl. Mountaineers won eight of last nine games this year after a 1-2 start, with loss to Troy; they’re 2-2 vs spread in games with a single-digit pointspread. ASU lost its season opener in OT at Tennessee. Junior QB Lamb is a 3-year starter for App State. Sun Belt teams are 8-7 in last 15 games with MAC opponents; Toledo opened this year with a 31-10 win over Arkansas State. App State won 45-38 at Akron in September. This is third Camellia Bowl; MAC/Sun Belt split first two, with totals of 61-60.

Cure Bowl, Orlando: Central Florida-Arkansas State


Central Florida was 0-12 LY after being 31-9 the three years before that, now they’re favored in a bowl game. Knights won three of their last four bowls, are playing in hometown here. UCF is 6-6 this year, 4-2 vs number in games with single-digit spread, 4-1 as a favorite- they lost last two games, allowing 83 points. Arkansas State is playing in its sixth straight bowl (under four different HC’s); they’re 0-2 in bowls under Anderson, losing 63-44/47-28. ASU is 7-5 this season after an 0-4 start that included a loss to a I-AA team. Red Wolves are 2-2 as underdogs this season. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine ASU games, 6-1 in UCF’s last eight games. Last two years, AAC teams are 4-2 vs spread when playing Sun Belt teams. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-9 vs spread this year. Sun Belt underdogs are 13-13. This is only second Cure Bowl, so no history to lean on here.


New Orleans Bowl: Southern Mississippi/UL-Lafayette


UL-Lafayette is playing in this bowl for 5th time in last six years; they won previous four, and were underdog three times- those are ULL’s only bowl appearances. Lot of people will make the trip east from Lafayette. ULL is 4-2 as an underdog this year, 7-2 vs number in games with a single-digit spread. ULL QB Jennings started 14 games for LSU before transferring. Southern Miss lost three of last four games, covered one of last eight; they had to beat La Tech as a 14-point dog to get bowl eligible. USM lost as a 10-point favorite to Troy of Sun Belt. Golden Eagles are 1-6 as a favorite this year, 1-2 in games with a single digit spread- they’re 1-3 in last four bowl games, they split two trips to this bowl in 2008-09. Underdogs won this bowl SU three of last five years; Sun Belt teams won four of the five.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Early Bowl Tips
December 16, 2016


**Texas-San Antonio at New Mexico**


-- This is the Gildan New Mexico Bowl that’ll be played at New Mexico’s home venue, University Stadium in Albuquerque. This is the Lobos’ second straight appearance in this postseason game after losing a 45-37 decision to Arizona last season as nine-point underdogs.


-- As of Thursday night, most betting shops had New Mexico (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) installed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The number has moved up from seven earlier in the week, while the total has dipped down from 62.5 points. The Roadrunners were +250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $250).


-- UNM was a single-digit favorite only once this year, beating Utah St. 24-21 as a 1.5-point road ‘chalk’ on Nov. 12. The Lobos closed out the regular season by smashing Wyoming 56-35 as three-point home underdogs. They led 35-7 at intermission and 42-7 midway through the third quarter. Lamar Jordan led the way by rushing for 176 yards and one TD on just 12 carries. The junior quarterback also completed 4-of-5 passes for 122 yards and one TD without an interception. RB Teriyon Gipson ran for a team-best 217 yards and two TDs on 13 attempts. RB Richard McQuarley also eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark with 121 yards and three TDs on 15 totes.


-- Bob Davie’s team leads the nation in rushing offense, averaging 360.9 yards per game. Gipson has rushed for 1,209 yards and 12 TDs while averaging an eye-opening 9.2 yards per carry. Tyrone Owens has run for 1,084 yards and seven scores with an 8.1 YPC average, while Jordan has 658 rushing yards and three TDs. McQuarley has rushed for 588 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC.


-- New Mexico doesn’t throw it much. Jordan has connected on 37-of-71 passes (52.1%) for 604 yards with a 6/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Austin Apodaca has completed 53-of-96 throws for 654 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. Q’ Drennan has 11 receptions for 284 yards and three TDs.


-- Owens missed the regular-season finale with a foot injury and is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. UTSA. Starting senior nose tackle William Udeh also missed the win over Wyoming and is ‘questionable.’ Udeh has recorded 12 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss and one sack.


-- UTSA (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) beat Charlotte by a 33-14 count in its regular-season finale to secure its first bowl-game appearance in program history. Dalton Sturm threw for 286 yards and two TDs without an interception, while Kerry Thomas had five receptions for 145 yards and one TD.


-- Sturm, the junior signal caller, has completed 58.2 percent of his throws for 2,052 yards with an 18/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Sturm has also rushed for 263 yards and four touchdowns. Josh Stewart has a team-best 36 receptions for 682 yards and five TDs, while Thomas has 31 catches for 510 yards and eight TDs.


-- UTSA’s ground game is led by the 1-2 combination of Jarveon Williams and Jalen Rhodes. Williams has run for 775 yards and eight TDs while averaging 4.1 YPC. Rhodes has rushed for 756 yards and nine TD with a 5.3 YPC average.


-- Frank Wilson led UTSA to a second-place finish in Conference USA’s West Division with a 5-3 record in league play. The Roadrunners went 3-4 against teams that made the postseason. They compiled a 4-3 spread record with two outright victories as underdogs. Wilson’s squad faced one team from out of the Mountain West Conference in Week 2, losing 23-14 at Colorado St. as an 8.5-point ‘dog. UTSA squared off with a pair of Power Five foes, losing 32-28 to Arizona St. as a 21.5-point puppy and 23-10 at Texas A&M when catching 27 points. The Sun Devils actually trailed the Roadrunners 28-12 midway through the third quarter and 28-15 going into the fourth.


-- UTSA’s defense is led by redshirt freshman LB Josiah Tauaefa, who was the program’s first player to earn first-team All C-USA honors after recording a program-record 104 tackles, including 7.5 for loss. Tauaefa is ranked third among FBS freshmen in tackles.


-- The ‘over’ is 10-2 overall for New Mexico, 6-0 in its home games. The Lobos have seen their games average combined scores of 70.2 PPG.


-- Totals have been an overall wash for the Roadrunners (6-6), but the ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back games. Their games have averaged combined scores of 58.2 PPG.


-- Kickoff on Saturday is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Houston vs. San Diego State**


-- The Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium in Sin City features a matchup of the AAC vs. the Mountain West. As of Thursday night, most spots had Houston (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) installed as a four-point favorite with a total of 51.5. The Aztecs were available on the money line for a +160 payout (paid $160 on $100 wagers).


-- Houston went 22-4 in 26 games under Tom Herman, who left UH to take the Texas job shortly after the Cougars dropped a 48-44 heartbreaker at Memphis in their regular-season finale at the Liberty Bowl. Offensive coordinator Major Applewhite has been tabbed as UH’s new head coach.


-- Houston probably has the best true freshman in all of America in DT Ed Oliver, who has lived up to his 5-star billing and then some. Oliver has produced 61 tackles, 19 TFL’s, five sacks, three forced fumbles, nine passes broken up and seven QB hurries. Senior LB Steven Taylor has registered a team-best 72 tackles, 11 TFL’s, 8.5 sacks, four QB hurries, two PBU, a pair of forced fumbles and one pick-six.


-- Houston opened the season with a 33-23 win over Oklahoma as a 13-point underdog at NRG Stadium in H-Town. Senior QB Greg Ward Jr. was the catalyst, throwing for 321 yards and two TDs without an interception. Duke Catalon rushed for 88 yards on 22 totes, while Steven Dunbar hauled in seven receptions for 125 yards. Catalon also had four catches for 29 yards and one TD.


-- Houston has been a single-digit favorite three times this year, posting a 1-2 spread record.


-- One of those non-covers from the single-digit ‘chalk’ role was an outright defeat at Memphis. The Tigers won in come-from-behind fashion as six-point home underdogs thanks to Riley Ferguson’s 10-yard scoring strike to Anthony Miller with 19 seconds remaining. UH held a 624-555 advantage in total offense, but the Cougars were minus two in the turnover department. Ward completed 47-of-67 passes for 487 yards and four TDs with one interception. He also ran for a team-high 65 yards on 16 attempts. Catalon rushed 13 times for 60 yards and one TD while also catching seven balls for 41 yards. Linell Bonner had 17 receptions for 235 yards and one TD, while Chance Allen had eight catches for 73 yards and two TDs.


-- For the season, Ward has completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,328 yards with a 22/9 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for a team-high 518 yards and nine TDs, while Catalon has 510 rushing yards and four TDs. Catalon, a transfer from Texas, missed four games with injuries and averages only 3.9 YPC.


-- Bonner has a team-high 93 receptions for 1,076 yards and three TDs. Allen has 56 grabs for 815 yards and six TDs, while Dunbar has 51 catches for 669 yards and five scores.


-- Houston is ranked third in the nation in rush defense and 14th in total defense.


-- Houston has won back-to-back bowl games, beating Pitt 35-34 in 2014 as a 3.5-point ‘dog at the Armed Forces Bowl. Then last year at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, the Cougars thumped FSU by a 38-24 count as seven-point ‘dogs.


-- Houston took its other two defeats at Navy (46-40) and at SMU (38-16). The Cougars posted quality wins over Tulsa (38-31), UCF (31-24) and Louisville. They hosted U of L on a Thursday night as 17-point home underdogs. Bobby Petrino’s team was still in the mix for a CFP berth, but UH destroyed the Cardinals 36-10 and cashed money-line tickets for their backers to the tune of a monster return in the +550 range.


-- San Diego State (10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) played a soft schedule, which is evidenced by its first underdog spot of the season here. Nevertheless, the Aztecs won the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by capturing a 27-24 win at Wyoming as seven-point road ‘chalk.’ Rashaad Penny rushed for 117 yards and two TDs on 16 carries, while Donnel Pumphrey ran for 110 yards and one TD on 25 attempts.


-- San Diego State lost two of its last three games, going 0-3 ATS. The Aztecs dropped a 34-33 decision at Wyoming two weeks before returning to Laramie to exact revenge. They closed the regular season by getting smashed 63-31 at Colorado St.


-- San Diego State is led by Pumphrey, the senior who has shredded all of Marshall Faulk’s school rushing records Pumphrey rushed for a career-best 2,018 yards and 16 TDs this year, averaging 6.1 YPC. He also had 26 catches for 205 yards. Penny has rushed for 995 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 7.9 YPC.


-- San Diego State QB Christian Chapman has completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,866 yards with a 19/6 TD-INT ratio. Chapman’s favorite target is Mikah Holder, who has 26 receptions for 569 yards and five TDs. Penny has 14 catches for 220 yards and three TDs.


-- San Diego State started the season 3-0, only to get thumped 42-24 at South Alabama as an 18.5-point road favorite in Week 5. The Aztecs responded with six straight wins while going 5-1 ATS, but then they lost their last two regular-season contests.


-- San Diego State is 12th in the nation in total defense, 11th in defending the run and 19th in scoring (21.0 PPG). This unit has lost three starters to season-ending injuries since late October, including LB Na’im McGee, LB Randy Ricks and CB Billy Vaughn.


-- Rocky Long has led San Diego State to six straight postseason appearances since taking over. The Aztecs are 2-3 both SU and ATS in those bowl. They drilled Cincinnati 42-7 as 2.5-point favorites at last year’s Hawaii Bowl.


-- The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for the Aztecs, cashing in five of their last six outings.


-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Cougars, going 4-1 in their last five games.


-- ABC will have the broadcast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Late Bowl Tips
December 16, 2016



**Appalachian State vs. Toledo**


-- This is the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl that’ll be contested in Montgomery, Alabama, otherwise known as ‘The Gump.’ This game will feature the MAC against the Sun Belt with Toledo taking on Appalachian State. As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Toledo (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) listed as a one-point favorite with a total of 60.


-- Toledo started 3-0 before losing a 55-53 decision at BYU in a wild, back-and-forth affair in Provo. The Rockets covered the spread as three-point road underdogs. There were four ties and nine lead changes, including one tie and five lead changes in the final stanza. BYU pulled into a 45-45 tie on Rhett Almond’s 32-yard field goal with 5:21 remaining, and the Cougars went ahead 52-45 on Jamaal Williams’s 14-yard TD run with 3:00 left. Toledo answered on Kareem Hunt’s seven-yard TD run with 1:11 remaining and then first-year head coach Jason Candle brazenly chose to go for two. The conversion was good when Logan Woodside hit Michael Roberts for a three-yard scoring pass. However, trailing 53-52, BYU quickly moved into field-goal range and then actually had two plays inside the 10 that could’ve resulted in a TD and a spread cover. That didn’t happen, though, with Almond’s 19-yard FG proving to be the game winner (unless you were holding a BYU -3 ticket). Woodside completed 30-of-38 passes for 505 yards and five TDs with two interceptions. Hunt rushed for 146 yards and one TD on 27 carries.


-- Following the loss to BYU, Toledo enjoyed another three-game winning streak before dropping a 31-26 decision to Ohio as a 15-point home ‘chalk.’ The Rockets bounced back with a third three-game winning streak before losing 55-35 at Western Michigan to close the regular season. Their best wins were at Arkansas State (31-10), at Eastern Michigan (35-20) and vs. Central Michigan (31-17).


-- Toledo is fourth in the nation in total offense, eighth in passing and 18th in scoring, averaging 38.8 points per game. Woodside, the junior signal caller, enjoyed a sensational campaign. He completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 3,882 yards with a 43/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Senior WR Corey Jones, an electrifying speedster who thrives on special teams, has 60 receptions for 745 yards and five TDs. Jones has 1,525 all-purpose yards. Cody Thompson has 59 catches for 1,170 yards and 10 TDs, while Jon’Vea Johnson hauled in 38 balls for 751 yards and 10 TDs. Roberts has 43 catches for 514 yards and 15 TDs.


-- Hunt, a three-time All-MAC selection, needs only 25 rushing yards against the Mountaineers to become the school’s all-time leader. He produced 1,355 rushing yards and eight TDs with a 5.6 yards-per-carry average during his senior campaign. Hunt also had 39 catches for 377 yards and one TD. His 200-yard effort on 20 attempts was a season-high in the regular-season finale at Western Michigan.

-- Toledo has been a single-digit favorite just once this year, easily cashing tickets in the 31-10 win over Arkansas State as a 4.5-point road favorite.


-- Appalachian State (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) nearly shocked the country on the Thursday night of Week 1 at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. Scott Satterfield’s squad was a 21.5-point road underdog at Tennessee, but it jumped out to a 13-3 intermission lead. However, a missed extra point by freshman Michael Rugino, in addition to a 42-yard fourth-quarter field goal that sailed wide right, would come back to haunt the Mountaineers. On a third-and-goal play on the first possession of overtime, UT QB Josh Dobbs dove for the end zone, only to get stuck by an ASU defender and cough up the ball. The fumble was recovered by Jalen Hurd in the end zone for a TD. ASU’s incomplete pass on fourth and five ended the game, but the Mountaineers easily covered the number as 21.5-point road underdogs.


-- After thumping Old Dominion 31-7 as a 21-point home ‘chalk,’ App. State welcomed Miami to Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone for the biggest home game in the program’s history. Things didn’t go well, however. A long run by Marcus Cox was called back and the star RB was injured in the first quarter. The Hurricanes rolled to a 45-10 win as 4.5-point road favorites.


-- ASU won six in a row after the loss to UM, only to see its winning streak halted in a 28-24 loss at Troy as a two-point road underdog. The Mountaineers bounced back to win their last two games, beating ULM 42-17 at home before blasting New Mexico State 37-7 as 20-point road ‘chalk.’ In the win over the Aggies, Cox rushed for 140 yards on 16 carries while Jalin Moore ran 17 times for 111 yards and one TD. Junior QB Taylor Lamb completed 20-of-28 passes for 220 yards and one TD without an interception. Lamb also rushed for 71 yards and a pair of scores on 10 attempts.


-- After getting injured vs. Miami, Cox missed four consecutive games before returning to run for 115 yards and one TD in a 34-10 win at Ga. Southern. For the season, Cox ran for 854 yards and eight TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. Cox is the school’s all-time leading rusher with 4,942 career yards. He also had 12 catches for 102 yards and one TDs this year. Moore rushed for a team-high 1,367 yards and 10 TDs with a 6.2 YPC average.


-- Lamb completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,162 yards with a 14/8 TD-INT ratio. He rushed for 379 yards and eight scores. Those numbers were down from his 2015 stats as a sophomore when Lamb threw for 2,387 yards with a 31/9 TD-INT ratio. He ran for 436 yards and five TDs.


-- Lamb’s favorite target is Shaedon Meadors, who has 43 receptions for 698 yards and two TDs.


-- ASU is 15th in the nation in total defense, 23rd in defending the run and seventh in scoring (17.0 PPG).


-- ASU went to this same bowl game last year, defeating Ohio 31-29 but failing to cover as a 7.5-point favorite.


-- When Matt Campbell left Toledo to take the Iowa State job last year, Candle led the Rockets to a 32-17 win over Temple at the Boca Raton Bowl as 2.5-point underdogs.


-- These schools have one common opponent. App. State won 45-38 at Akron, while Toledo coasted to a 48-17 road win against the Zips.


-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for Appalachian State, which saw its games average combined scores of 46.1 PPG.


-- The ‘under’ is 6-5-1 overall for the Rockets, who saw their games average combined scores of 64.1 PPG. The ‘under’ cashed at a 4-1-1 clip in their last six outings.


-- Kickoff is slated for 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**Central Florida vs. Arkansas State**


-- The Autonation Cure Bowl will take place in Orlando at Camping World Stadium, where Arkansas State will represent the Sun Belt against Central Florida from out of the AAC. This contest will kick at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS College Sports Network.


-- As of Friday, most spots had UCF (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 50. The Red Wolves were +205 on the money line (risk $100 to win $205).


-- Scott Frost, the former offensive coordinator at Oregon, took over for George O’Leary and immediately posted a six-game improvement. The Knights finished 2015 with a 0-12 record, but they’re back in the postseason under Frost’s direction.


-- UCF went 1-2 both SU and ATS in three games as a single-digit favorite during the regular season.


-- UCF lost back-to-back contests to close the regular season, including a 35-20 home loss to Tulsa and a 48-31 loss at South Fla. The Knights gave up 351 rushing yards to the Bulls and they were minus two in turnover margin.


-- UFC’s defense is led by junior LB Shaquem Griffin, who has 85 tackles, 19 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, six passes broken up, three QB hurries, two forced fumbles and one interception. Senior CB Shaquill Griffin is the leader in the secondary, recording 48 tackles, four interceptions, one pick-six, 2.5 TFL’s, one blocked kick and 12 PBU.


-- UFC true freshman QB McKenzie Milton took over the job from senior Justin Holman in Week 3. Milton completed 57.9% percent of his passes for 1,808 yards with a 9/7 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 153 yards and three TDs. Milton’s favorite target is Tre’Quan Smith, who has 54 receptions for 808 yards and six TDs. UFC uses a trio of RBs led by Jawon Hamilton, who has rushed for a team-high 481 yards and four TDs.


-- Arkansas State (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) won seven if its last eight games while going 6-2 ATS after getting out to an abysmal 0-4 start. Blake Anderson’s team lost its first three games by double-digit margins vs. Toledo (31-10), at Auburn (51-14) and at Utah State (34-20). Then the Red Wolves hit rock bottom by losing at home to an FCS school, Central Arkansas, by a 28-23 count as 16.5-point ‘chalk.’


-- From there, however, Arkansas State turned it around with a six-game winning streak that included five wins by double-digit margins. The most impressive of those victories came at Troy on national television. The Trojans were 10-point home favorites, unbeaten in Sun Belt play with their only loss coming at Clemson by just a 30-24 score. Arkansas State limited Troy’s high-octane offense to merely 262 yards and forced five turnovers. Justice Hansen threw for 149 yards and one TD without an interception, while Warren Wand rushed for 90 yards on 17 attempts. Justin Clifton had a pair of interceptions for the defense.


-- Arkansas State has held foes to only 13.7 PPG in its last seven contests. Senior DE Chris Odom leads this unit with a team-best 12.5 sacks, while junior DE Ja’Von Rolland-Jones collected 11 sacks. Odom also tallied 52 tackles, 17.5 TFL’s, six QB hurries, four forced fumbles, two PBU and one blocked kick. Rolland-Jones finished the regular season with 53 tackles, 19 TFL’s and six QB hurries.


-- Wand has rushed for a team-high 867 yards and seven TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC. Hansen has completed 58.9 percent of his throws for 2,514 yards with a 16/8 TD-INT ratio. Blake Mack and Kendall Sanders have both caught 33 balls apiece. Mack has 585 receiving yards and three TD grabs, while Sanders has 426 receiving yards and four TD receptions.


-- Arkansas State has been an underdog four times this year, compiling a 2-2 record both SU and ATS with outright scalps at Troy and at Ga. Southern.


-- This is Arkansas State’s third straight postseason appearance under Anderson, but the Red Wolves are looking for their first bowl win on his watch. They lost 47-28 to La. Tech as 1.5-point underdogs at last season’s New Orleans Bowl.


-- The ‘under’ has been a monster money maker in Arkansas State games, cashing at a 9-2-1 overall clip. The Red Wolves have watched their games average combined scores of 49.2 PPG.


-- The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for UCF, going 6-1 in its last seven games. The Knights have seen their games average combined scores of 54.2 PPG.

**Southern Miss vs. UL-Lafayette**


-- This is the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl that’ll take place at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in the Crescent City. Mark Hudspeth’s program is no stranger to this game. In fact, before last year’s dismal 4-8 campaign, the Ragin’ Cajuns not only went to the New Orleans Bowl four straight years, but they won it four consecutive times both SU and ATS. They beat San Diego State 32-30 as four-point ‘dogs in ’11 before besting East Carolina 43-34 as 6.5-point ‘chalk’ in ’12. Also, UL-L edged Tulane 24-21 as a 1.5-point puppy and knocked off Nevada 16-3 as a 1.5-point ‘dog.


-- Southern Miss is no stranger to the New Orleans Bowl, either. The Golden Eagles are also making their fifth appearance. They are 3-1 with wins in ’04, ’05 and ’08 with a loss in ’09.


-- As of Friday, most books had So. Miss (6-6 SU, 3-8-1 ATS) listed as a six-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The line opened at two at The Westgate SuperBook, but it was up to 3.5 within 24 hours. Then on Monday, the number went to four and was to 4.5 by Tuesday and five on Wednesday. The number was up to six as of Thursday. The total opened at 58 points and hasn’t moved much, resting at 58.5 at most place on Friday. The Ragin’ Cajuns can be had on the money line for a nice +200 return.


-- Jay Hopson’s first team at So. Miss got out to a nice start, winning its opener 44-35 at Kentucky after trailing 35-10 late in the second quarter. The Golden Eagles improved to 4-1, with their lone defeat coming at home to Troy by a 37-31 score, by winning at UTEP (34-7) and vs. Rice (44-28) in their first two C-USA games. However, four lopsided defeats followed in the next five outings.


-- The slide began with a 55-32 loss at Texas-San Antonio as a 16.5-point road ‘chalk.’ After a 45-10 loss at LSU, So. Miss briefly stopped the bleeding with a 24-14 non-covering home win over Marshall. Next, the Golden Eagles lost 38-27 to Charlotte as 19.5-point home favorites. Following a 51-35 loss at Old Dominion and a 29-23 setback at North Texas, they had to win the regular-season finale at home vs. La. Tech to get bowl eligible.


-- With a seven-game ATS losing streak to go with five outright defeats in the last six outings, So. Miss produced its best performance in months by beating La. Tech 39-24 as a 14.5-point home underdog. Nick Mullens couldn’t have played better on his Senior Night in Hattiesburg, completing 29-of-33 passes for 342 yards and three TDs without an interception. Ito Smith rushed for 127 yards on 24 attempts and also had four catches for 63 yards. D.J. Thompson had a team-high 12 receptions for 135 yards and two TDs. Junior safety Picasso Nelson had a pair of interceptions.


-- As a junior in 2015, Mullens threw for 4,476 yards with a 38/12 TD-INT ratio. He couldn’t duplicate those numbers this year, however. Mullens missed losses at ODU and at North Texas due to injuries. He finished the regular season by connecting on 63.4 percent of his throws for 2,926 yards with a 22/10 TD-INT ratio. Mullens rushed for four TDs.


-- Smith led the Golden Eagles with 1,321 rushing yards and 15 TDs with a 5.5 YPC average. He also had 42 catches for 453 yards and one TD. Allen Staggers is Mullens’s top target. Staggers has 51 receptions for 927 yards and six TDs, while Thompson has 43 catches for 470 yards and six TDs.


-- So. Miss has been a single-digit favorite three times this year, going 0-3 both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, UL-Lafayette has posted a 4-2 spread record with a pair of outright victories in six games as an underdog.


-- UL-Lafayette (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) has covered the spread in four consecutive games, including a 30-3 win at ULM as a 5.5-point road favorite in the regular-season finale. The defense forced five turnovers and scored a pair of TDs on scoop and scores. Trevera Miller’s 73-yard return of a fumble recovery gave UL-L a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter. Then with 5:10 left until halftime, Otha Peters put his team ahead 21-3 with a 29-yard return of a fumble recovery. Elijah McGuire rushed for 110 yards and one TD on 28 totes.


-- Hudspeth’s team produced its best wins at home over South Alabama (28-23) and Arkansas State (24-19). The Ragin’ Cajuns beat the Red Hawks as six-point home underdogs thanks to three defensive stops on fourth-down conversion attempts and a 17-yard pick-six by junior DT Taboris Lee. UL-L QB Anthony Jennings, a transfer from LSU, threw for 242 yards and two TDs without an interception.


-- McGuire is the school’s second all-time leading rusher with 3,896 career yards. He was a Freshman All-American in 2013 and the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year in 2014. He ran for 1,028 yards this season to give him three 1,000-yard rushing years. McGuire averaged 4.8 YPC and had seven rushing TDs. McGuire also had 28 catches for 231 yards and two TDs.


-- Jennings has completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,083 yards with a mediocre 11/12 TD-INT ratio. Jennings has rushed for 322 yards and seven TDs. His best WR is Al Riles, who has 55 catches for 665 yards and two TDs. Keenan Barnes has 30 catches for 406 yards and a team-best six TD grabs.


-- The ‘under’ is 7-4-1 overall for UL-L, going 5-2 in its last seven regular-season contests. The Ragin’ Cajuns have watched their games average combined scores of 48.9 PPG.


-- The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 overall for So. Miss, but it saw the ‘under’ connect its last two regular-season contests. The Golden Eagles have seen their games average combined scores of 63.5 PPG.


-- Kickoff is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[CNOTES]

Miami Beach Bowl
December 18, 2016


**Tulsa vs. Central Michigan**


-- The lone bowl game Monday takes place at Marlins Park in Miami, Fla., as Mid-American Conference (MAC) representative Central Michigan (6-6 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) enters as a heavy underdog against Tulsa (9-3 straight up, 8-4 ATS) of the American Athletic Conference (AAC). The Golden Hurricane of Tulsa are listed as a 12 1/2-point favorite as of Sunday morning with a total just shy of 70.


-- Central Michigan fired out to a 3-0 record this season, including their memorable and controversial last-second victory at Oklahoma State Sept. 10. The Chippewas also started 3-0 ATS, but ended up covering just two of their final nine outings. In addition, the Chips posted just one victory in their final five regular season games, although it was an impressive 27-20 win over Ohio, a MAC Championship Game participant and current bowl team. The Chippewas managed to win two times in six games away from home, posting a 2-4 ATS mark on the road. Against bowl teams this season the Chippewas managed a 2-4 SU/ATS mark. CMU appeared to shoot their wad in a triple-overtime victory over Northern Illinois back on Oct. 15, as they were 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS at that point, but they fizzled hard down the stretch. The Chips were able to score 30 or more points in each of their first four games, but hit the mark just once in the final eight games, and that was the triple-overtime outing against NIU. Meanwhile CMU's defense went south down the stretch, giving up 28.2 points per game (PPG) in their final five outings.


-- CMU might not even be in a position for a bowl appearance if not for their controversial win in Stillwater. The Cowboys of Oklahoma State snapped the ball, threw the ball deep and out of bounds in an attempt to kill the clock. Oklahoma State was whistled for intentional grounding, which was the proper call. However, MAC officials incorrectly awarded the Chips an untimed down, which they converted into a miraculous 51-yard Hail Mary for score. After the game, officials admitted the game should have been over and the storybook finish should never have taken place. As it stands, both Oklahoma State and Central Michigan ended up bowling.


-- Central Michigan had a rather prolific pass attempt this season, posting 275.8 yards per game through the air to rank 26th in the nation. However, they managed just 119.2 yards per game on the ground to check in 116th in the country while posting 27.7 PPG and 395.1 total yards per game which were both middle of the pack. QB Cooper Rush was the story on offense, completing 61.0 percent of his passes for 3,292 yards with 23 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He wasn't a dual-threat quarterback, though, posting minus-13 yards with one score on 62 rush attempts.


-- When CMU wants to run the ball, it is RBs Devon Spalding (shoulder) and Jahray Hayes handling the totes. Spalding is a question mark for Monday's game due to a shoulder injury. If he cannot play it would be a huge hole in the offense, as he posted three of his six regular season touchdowns in the season finale at Eastern Michigan. Hayes also visited the end zone three times in the final three games, but he operated more like the hammer in short-yardage situations. If he is forced to shoulder more of the load, pun totally intended, the Chips would definitely not be firing on all cylinders in the run game.


-- The Chippewas were double-digit underdogs twice this season. Their one cover, even if not for the controversial ending, was at Oklahoma State Sept. 10. They failed to cover a 10-point number in a conference loss at Toledo Oct. 22 to kick off their 1-4 ATS slide to end the season.


-- Tulsa (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) had a lot more consistency in their season, and they never lost back-to-back games at any point during the season. While Tulsa was completely outplayed Sept. 10 at Ohio State in a 48-3 loss, on the same day as CMU's big win at Oklahoma State, they were able to survive and advance in the following three weeks, including overtime wins at Fresno State and at home against Southern Methodist.


-- Tulsa's season wasn't without controversy, either, although they were on the short end of the stick in their most memorable game Oct. 15. Tulsa was tied with Houston 31-31 with 3:31 to go, but the Cougars pulled ahead on a 24-yard fumble recovery for touchdown to take a 38-31 lead with 81 seconds remaining in regulation. The Golden Hurricane drove down to the 2-yard line in the closing seconds of regulation. QB Dane Evans hit Jesse Brubaker on a short pass and he reached for the goal line and appeared to be in, sending the game potentially to overtime. However, after further review officials determined Brubaker was short and the ball did not cross the plane before time ran out, handing Tulsa a gut-wrenching loss at TDECU Stadium in Houston.


-- The difficult loss seemed to galvanize the Golden Hurricane, as they won five of their final six regular season games while going 6-1 ATS over their final seven outings. Tulsa ranked No. 5 in the country in total yards with 523.2 yards per game, buoyed by a strong rushing attack ranking eighth in the country with 262.4 yards per game. The Golden Hurricane averaged 41.4 PPG to rank 11th in the country, too.


-- Evans threw for 3,044 yard with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, jelling nicely with WRs Keevan Lucas and Josh Atkinson for big numbers. Lucas led the team with 74 receptions, 1,108 yards and 15.0 yards per reception while also finding the end zone a team-high 12 times. Atkinson was right on his tail with 66 grabs for 927 yards and seven scores. WR Justin Hobbs emerged as an outstanding tertiary receiving option, hauling in 47 receptions for 657 yards and four scores while equaling Atkinson with 14.0 yards per catch.


-- In the run game, James Flanders gobbled up huge chunks of real estate, running for 6.3 yards per carry on 241 totes, leading the team wiht 1,529 yards and 17 forays into the end zone. D'Angelo Brewer was not only a complement, but an equal in a two-headed rushing attack. He rolled for 1,330 yards with seven scores on 247 carries, averaging 5.4 yards per game. Evans, like CMU's Rush, is a drop-back passer and not a dual-threat, but he was able to find the end zone four times with his feet.


-- Tulsa is looking for a better outcome than their showing last season in the Independence Bowl. They were outscored 55-52 in Frank Beamer's swan song game against Virginia Tech. Their last victory in the postseason came in 2012 when they topped Iowa State 31-17 to win the AutoZone Liberty Bowl, posting their 10th victory of the season that year. The Golden Hurricane have won four of their past six bowl games, covering five of the outings.


-- For Central Michigan, they have managed just three all-time bowl victories, with their last win coming in the Little Caesars Bowl in 2012 against Western Kentucky. The Chips have allowed 21 or more points in all but one of their nine bowl games since their postseason debut in 1990. They have also scored at least 21 points in eight of their nine bowl games, posting a low of 14 points last season in the Quick Lane Bowl in a loss against Minnesota.


-- These teams last met Oct. 17, 1987, with Central Michigan topping Tulsa 41-18.


-- Central Michigan is 8-2 ATS in their past 10 non-conference games, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall.


-- Tulsa covered six of their final seven games overall, they're 4-1 ATS in their past five neutral-site games and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight against non-conference foes.


-- The 'under' is 8-0 in the past eight for Central Michigan against teams with a winning overall record.


-- The 'under' is 6-1 in Tulsa's past seven neutral site games, and 6-2 in their past eight bowl appearances. The under is also 4-0 in the past four for the Golden Hurricane against MAC foes.


-- Kickoff is slated for 2:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.