NCAAF
Weather Report
Friday, January 2
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
Friday’s games
Armed Forces Bowl (@ Ft Worth, TX)
Rice vs
Texas State (-16.5)
Rice (5-7)
Rice lost six of its last eight games.
Owls gave up 56-52 points in their last two games.
Rice has 3 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Owls have 56 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Jenkins has run for 539 yards, thrown for 1,025 yards.
Rice is 4-5 ATS as an underdog this year.
One of Owls’ wins was 14-12 (+10.5) at Louisiana of Sun Belt.
Owls were held under 300 TY in four of last six games.
Rice is 8-7-1 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Rice lost three of its last four bowl games.
AAC non-conference underdogs are 15-13 ATS
Texas State (6-6)
Texas State won its last three games, scoring 41-31-49 points.
Bobcats scored 30+ points in 10 of their 12 games.
Five of their six wins are by 17+ points.
Texas State has 3 starters back on offense, 2 on defense.
Texas State has 48 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Jackson has 3,049 PY (18 TD’s, 7 INTs)
Texas State scored 30+ points in four of their six losses.
Under Kinne, Bobcats are 11-14 ATS as a favorite.
This year, Texas State is 2-5 ATS as a favorite.
Five of Bobcats’ last seven games went over the total.
Texas State won its two bowl games, 45-21/30-28.
Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 6-10 ATS.
Texas State (-3.5) beat Rice 45-21 in a bowl two years ago.
Underdogs covered four of last five Texas Bowls.
This year, AAC teams are 6-3 SU/5-4 ATS vs Sun Belt opponents.
Liberty Bowl (@ Memphis)
Navy (-7) vs
Cincinnati
Navy (10-2)
Navy was held to 17-10 points in its two losses.
Middies are 5-0 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Navy has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Middies have 31 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Horvath has 13 career starts (1,040 RY, 1,390 PY).
Under Newberry, Navy is 9-12 ATS as a favorite.
Navy is 2-3 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Navy is 2-6 ATS as a favorite this year.
Middies ran for 200+ yards in 10 of their 12 games.
Navy won four of its last five bowl games.
Over is 7-4 in their I-A games.
AAC non-conference favorites are 9-9 ATS.
Cincinnati (7-5)
Cincinnati lost last four games, giving up 36.5 ppg
Cincinnati is 1-5 when they score less than 34 points.
Bearcats have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Bearcats have 81 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Sorsby has 19 career starts.
Problem vs Navy: Cincy allowed 228+ YR in four of last six games.
Cincinnati is 2-3 ATS as an underdog this year.
Under Satterfield, Cincinnati is 6-10-1 ATS as an underdog.
This year, Bearcats are 4-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
Cincinnati lost its last three bowls, last of which was in 2022.
Over is 6-4 in their I-A games.
Big X non-conference underdogs are 4-5 ATS.
Cincinnati won last two series games, 27-20/20-10 (2021/2022)
Underdogs covered eight of last nine Liberty Bowls.
AAC/Big X teams split four meetings this year.
Holiday Bowl (@ San Diego)
Arizona vs
SMU (-1.5)
Arizona (9-3)
Arizona is 7-0 when they allow less than 31 points.
Wildcats gave up 39-33-31 points in their losses.
Arizona has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Wildcats have 84 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Fifita has 21 career starts
Arizona is 2-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
In his career, Brennan is 28-27-1 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Brennan is 0-3 SU in bowl games.
This year, Arizona is 5-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
Under is 4-1 in Arizona’s last five games.
Arizona is 3-2 in its last five bowls (average total, 69.2)
Big X non-conference underdogs are 5-5 ATS.
SMU (8-4)
SMU won six of its last eight games.
SMU is 1-3 in games decided by less than 11 points.
SMU is 1-2 when they score less than 28 points.
Mustangs have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mustangs have 117 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Jennings started 13 times the last two years.
Mustangs are 30-10 SU the last three years.
This year, Mustangs are 12-8 ATS as a home favorite.
This year, Mustangs are 3-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
SMU lost its last five bowl games.
Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.
ACC non-conference favorites are 13-23 ATS.
Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in last eight Holiday Bowls.
This year, ACC teams are 2-6 SU/1-7 ATS vs Big X teams.
These teams haven’t met in the last six years.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (@ Charlotte, NC)
Mississippi State (-3) vs
Wake Forest
Mississippi State (5-7)
Miss State lost seven of its last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
Last five games, Bulldogs gave up 45-35-41-49-38 points.
Bulldogs have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Bulldogs have 91 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Shapen has 27 career starts.
This year, Bulldogs are 2-0 ATS as a favorite.
Under Lebby is 4-1 ATS as a favorite.
Bulldogs are 5-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
Bulldogs lost three of their last five bowl games.
Four of Miss State’s last five games went over the total.
SEC non-conference favorites are 18-23 ATS.
Wake Forest (8-3, 4-3)
Wake Forest won three in row, six of last seven games.
Deacons allowed 34-30-42 points in its three losses.
Deacons have 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Wake Forest has 86 returning starts on offensive line.
QB Ashford played previously at Auburn, South Carolina.
This year, Wake is 4-3 ATS as an underdog.
This year, Wake is 5-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
Deacons are 6-2 ATS in last eight games overall.
Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Wake Forest won three of its last five bowl games
ACC non-conference underdogs are 9-14 ATS.
This year, ACC teams are 6-6 SU/7-5 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Last 10 years, favorites are 6-3-1 ATS in this bowl.
These teams haven’t met in the last six years.
