NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 9
Top 13 games of the week
Ole Miss @ Oklahoma (-5.5)
Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1)
Ole Miss is 1-1 on road: 30-23 at Kentucky/35-43 @ Georgia
LW (351 yards) was first time TY they gained fewer than 439 yards.
Rebels have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 78 returning starts on offensive line.
New QB Chambliss is 104-166/1,549 passing this season.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 7-8 ATS as an underdog.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 2-6 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Kiffin is 14-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 19-24-2 ATS in SEC games.
Three of Rebels’ last four games stayed under the total.
Oklahoma (6-1, 2-1)
Oklahoma ran ball for 32-48 yards in its two SEC (1-1) games.
Under Venables, Sooners are 8-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Oklahoma has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Matter started 12 games for Wazzu last year- he is banged up (check status).
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 18-13-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 13-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Sooners are 6-1 despite being minus-5 in turnovers.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 12-16-1 ATS in conference games.
Under is 6-0 in Oklahoma’s I-A games.
Home team won last four series games.
Rebels lost 30-23/36-27 in last two visits to Norman.
Last five meetings went over the total.
SEC home favorites are 12-8 ATS in conference games.
Kansas State @ Kansas (-3.5)
Kansas State (3-4, 2-3)
Last four games, Wildcats are +7 in turnovers.
Last two games, K-State gave up 443/448 total yards.
Wildcats have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
K-State has 43 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Johnson started 13 games last year.
Under Klieman, K-State is 18-10 ATS as an underdog.
Under Klieman, K-State is 11-7 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Klieman, Wildcats are 55-41 ATS in Big X games.
K-State is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
Last three K-State games went over the total.
Kansas (4-3, 2-2)
Kansas scored 34.3 ppg in splitting four I-A games.
Jayhawks allowed 42-37 points in their losses.
Jayhawks have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Kansas has 82 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Daniels started 12 games last year.
Last five games, Kansas allowed 205.6 rushing yards/game.
In his career, Leipold is 22-12-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Kansas is 13-9 ATS in its last 22 Big X games.
Kansas is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
K-State won last 16 meetings in this rivalry.
Wildcats are 6-2 ATS last eight visits to Lawrence.
Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Big X home favorites are 15-6 ATS in conference games.
Auburn @ Arkansas (-3.5)
Auburn (3-4, 0-4)
Auburn lost its last four games, scoring 17-10-10-17 points.
Tigers scored 38-42-31 points in their wins.
Auburn has 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Tigers have 140 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Arnold started 10 games for Oklahoma.
Tigers were held under 300 yards in three of last four games.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 4-5 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Freeze is 20-11 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 9-11 ATS in conference games.
Auburn is 12-15 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
Under is 6-0 in last six Auburn games.
Arkansas (2-2)
Arkansas lost its last five games, giving up 41.6 ppg
Last five games, Hogs are minus-7 in turnovers.
Last 4 games, Arkansas gave up 246.3 rushing yards/game.
Razorbacks have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Razorbacks have 101 returning starts on the offensive line;
Senior QB Green has started 35 college games.
Arkansas is 3-6 ATS last nine games as a home favorite.
Razorbacks are 26-14-2 ATS last 42 SEC games.
Hogs are 10-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Over is 5-1 in Arkansas’ last six games.
Road team won last four meetings.
Tigers won/covered last four visits to Arkansas.
Over is 9-2 in last eleven series games.
SEC home favorites are 12-8 ATS in conference games.
Alabama (-11.5) @ South Carolina
Alabama (6-1, 4-0)
Alabama won first three SEC games, by 3-16-3-17 points.
Alabama is +10 in turnovers this season.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Simpson threw 25 passes last year.
Under DeBoer, Alabama is 2-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, DeBoer is 10-11-1 as a road favorite.
Crimson Tide is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 SEC games.
Alabama is 2-1 SU on road, with wins by 3-3 points.
Last four Alabama games stayed under the total.
South Carolina (3-4, 1-4)
Gamecocks scored 24-35 in I-A wins, 7-20-10-7 in losses.
Last four games, Carolina is +4 in turnovers.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Gamecocks have 78 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Sellers started 12 games last year.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 6-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 20-17 ATS in SEC games.
Under Beamer, Carolina is 15-7 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Under Beamer, Carolina is 19-13 ATS in home games.
Under is 4-2 in Gamecocks’ I-A games.
Alabama won four of last five series games SU.
South Carolina covered the last four meetings.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
SEC home underdogs are 6-3 ATS in conference games.
Missouri @ Vanderbilt (-2.5)
Missouri (6-1, 2-1)
Mizzou won its first road game LW, 23-17 @ Auburn. .
Tigers’ only loss was 27-24 at home to Alabama
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Tigers have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Last 2 years, Junior QB Pribula was a backup QB at Penn State.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 8-8 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Drinkwitz is 11-8 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 25-19-1 ATS in SEC games.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 20-19-1 in games coming off a win.
Last three Mizzou games stayed under the total.
Vanderbilt (6-1, 2-1)
Vandy scored 31+ points in all six of their wins.
Commodores’ only loss: 30-14 at Alabama.
Commodores have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Commodores have 139 returning starts on OL; lot of transfers.
Senior QB Pavia has started 36 college games
Under Lea, Vandy is 4-9 ATS as a favorite.
Under Lea, Vandy is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Lea, Vandy is 18-17 ATS in SEC games (8-3 last 11)
Under Lea, Vandy is 7-13 ATS in last six games coming off a win.
Over is 3-1 in Vandy’s last four games.
Mizzou won five in row, eight of last nine meetings.
Tigers were double digit favorite in last seven meetings.
Mizzou won four of last six visits to Vandy.
Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
SEC home favorites are 12-8 ATS in conference games.
BYU @ Iowa State (-2.5)
BYU (7-0, 4-0)
BYU scored 24-38-33-24 points in its Big X wins.
BYU ran for 200+ yards in three of last four games.
Cougars have 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Broncos have 61 starts returning on the offensive line.
QB Bachmeier is 91-144/1,220 passing (8 TD’s, 3 INTs)
In its Big X games, BYU allowed 21-24-27-21 points.
BYU is 17-9 ATS last 26 games as a road underdog.
BYU is 8-6 ATS in last 14 conference games.
BYU is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 games coming off a win.
Under is 4-2 in BYU’s last six games.
Iowa State (5-2, 2-2)
Iowa State lost last two games, 38-30/24-17
Iowa State Is 5-0 when it allows less than 24 points.
Cyclones have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Cyclones have 105 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Becht started 13 games last season.
Iowa State is 7-5 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Campbell is 31-32-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Cyclones are 13-10 ATS in last 23 Big X games.
Cyclones gained 441+ total yards in three of last games.
Since 2015, Iowa State is 35-18-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Iowa State (-7.5) won 45-13 at BYU in 2023.
Big X home favorites are 15-6 ATS in conference games.
Illinois @ Washington (-4.5)
Illinois (5-2, 2-2)
Illinois scored 34+ points in wins, 10-16 in losses.
Illini allowed 453+ yards in three of last four games.
Illinois has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Illini has 193 returning starts on OL.
Senior QB Altmyer has 23 career starts.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 12-5 ATS as road underdogs.
In his career, Bielema is 27-18-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 23-17 ATS in Big 18 games.
In his career, Bielema is 75-61-2 ATS in conference games.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 12-9 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Washington (5-2, 2-2)
Washington was held to 6-7 points in its two losses.
Washington gained 390+ yards in all five wins.
Huskies have 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Huskies have 54 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Williams started two games last year.
Under Fisch, Washington is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Fisch is 9-7 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Fisch is 21-20 ATS in conference games.
Under Fisch, Washington is 5-8 ATS in conference games.
Last four Washington games stayed under the total.
These teams haven’t met since 2014.
Big 18 home favorites are 7-13 ATS in conference games.
Minnesota @ Iowa (-7.5)
Minnesota (5-2, 3-1)
Minnesota is 0-2 on road, 27-14 at Cal, 42-3 at Ohio State.
Gophers won three of their last four games.
Gophers have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Minnesota has 79 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Lindsey is 128-208/1,437 passing (10 TD’s, 3 INTs).
Under Fleck, Minnesota is 10-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Fleck is 25-15-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Minnesota is 6-9-1 ATS last 16 games coming off a win.
Under Fleck, Minnesota is 36-34-4 ATS in Big 18 games.
Gophers ran for less than 70 yards in three of last four games.
Iowa (5-2, 3-1)
Iowa won four of their last five games.
Hawkeyes were held to 13-15 points in their losses.
Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Hawkeyes have 85 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Gronowski started 55 games at I-AA South Dakota State.
Hawkeyes are 5-3-1 ATS last nine games as a home favorite.
Iowa is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 conference games.
In his career, Ferentz is 122-94-7 ATS in conference games.
Last two games, Iowa threw ball for only 109-68 yards.
Iowa is 35-24-2 ATS in last 61 games coming off a win.
Iowa won nine of last ten meetings (6-1 ATS last seven)
Gophers are 2-7-1 ATS last ten visits to Iowa City.
Under is 6-3 in last nine series games.
Big 18 home favorites are 8-13 ATS in conference games.
San Diego State (-2.5) @ Fresno State
San Diego State (5-1, 2-0)
Aztecs won last four games, scoring 45-44 points in last two.
Aztecs’ only loss was 36-13 at Washington State.
San Diego State has 4 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Aztecs have 67 starts returning on offensive line.
Soph QB Denegal was a backup at Michigan for two years.
First two MW games, Aztecs ran ball for 281-204 yards.
Under Lewis, San Diego State is 2-0 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, coach Lewis is 7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
San Diego State is 10-7 ATS last 17 conference games.
Under Lewis, San Diego State is 5-1 ATS coming off a win.
Fresno State (5-2, 2-1)
Fresno won five of its last six games.
Bulldogs’ two losses were 31-7/49-21 (Kansas/Colorado State)
Bulldogs have 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Fresno has 50 starts returning on offensive line.
EJ Warner (Kurt’s son) is new QB; he started 31 games at Temple/Rice.
Since 2016, Fresno is 8-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2021, Fresno is 8-6 ATS as an underdog.
Bulldogs are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 conference tilts.
In their losses, Bulldogs were minus-3/minus-4 in turnovers.
Mountain West home underdogs are 3-3 ATS in conference games.
Bulldogs won four of last six series games.
Aztecs are 1-5 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Fresno.
Last three meetings went over the total.
Baylor @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
Baylor (4-3, 2-2)
Baylor split last four games, giving up 32.5 ppg.
Baylor scored 35+ points in wins, 24-24-36 in losses.
Bears have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Bears have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Robertson had 3,071 PY (28 TD’s, 8 INTs) LY.
Baylor is 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 11-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 23-26-1 ATS in Big X games.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 13-15 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Baylor is 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
Over is 5-1 in their I-A games.
Cincinnati (6-1, 4-0)
Cincinnati won six in row since 20-17 loss vs Nebraska.
Cincinnati gained 427+ TY in four of last five I-A games.
Bearcats have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Bearcats have 81 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Sorsby has 19 career starts.
Under Satterfield, Cincinnati is 4-8 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Satterfield is 27-29-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Satterfield is 45-38-1 ATS as a favorite.
Cincinnati is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in conference games this year.
Over is 4-1 in their last five I-A games.
Baylor (+3) won 32-29 at Cincinnati two years ago.
Big X home favorites are 10-6 ATS in conference games.
Texas A&M (-2.5) @ LSU
Texas A&M (7-0, 4-0)
Last three games, Aggies scored 31-34-45 points.
A&M won their two road games, 41-40/45-42
Over is 5-2 in their games.
Aggies have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
A&M has 156 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Reed started eight games last year.
A&M is 3-7 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite.
In his career, Elko is 2-7 ATS as a road favorite.
Aggies are 9-13-3 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win
A&M is 10-15-3 ATS in last 28 SEC games.
In his career, Elko is 15-13 ATS in conference games.
LSU (5-2, 2-2)
LSU is 2-2 in SEC games, scoring 20.8 ppg.
LSU allowed 10 or fewer points in all five wins.
LSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
LSU has 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards LY (29 TD’s, 12 INTs)
LSU is 5-1-1 ATS last seven games as a home underdog.
In his career, Kelly is 16-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Kelly, LSU is 13-15-1 ATS in SEC games.
Under Kelly, LSU is 7-5 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Under is 5-1 in their I-A games.
Teams split last eight series games,
Aggies are 0-6 SU/0-5-1 ATS last six visits to Baton Rouge.
Over is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
SEC home underdogs are 6-3 ATS in conference games.
Tennessee (-8.5) @ Kentucky
Tennessee (5-2, 2-2)
Vols allowed 31+ points in 4 of last 5 games (44-37 in losses).
Vols hs gained 410+ yards in all seven games.
Tennessee has 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Vols have 46 returning starts on the offensive line;
Senior QB Aguilar started 24 games at Appalachian State.
Vols are 1-1 on road: 41-34 at Miss State/20-37 at Alabama.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 6-5 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Heupel is 13-13 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Heupel, Vols are 10-4 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 15-21 ATS in SEC games.
Over is 4-2 in their I-A games, 0-2 in last two.
Kentucky (2-4, 0-4)
Kentucky is 0-4 in SEC, losing by 7-22-21-3 points.
Last three games, Kentucky scored 13-14-13 points.
Wildcats have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Wildcats have 170 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Boley is 79-123/885 passing (4 TD’s/4 INTs)
Kentucky is 8-3 ATS last 11 games as a home underdog.
In his career, Mark Stoops is 12-15-2 ATS as a home dog.
Last 4+ years, Kentucky is 19-17 ATS in SEC games.
Wildcats are 11-9 ATS last 20 games coming off a loss.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Tennessee won 25 of last 28 meetings SU
Vols are 12-2 ATS in last 14 visits to Lexington.
Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
SEC home underdogs are 6-3 ATS in conference games.
Houston @ Arizona State (-7.5)
Houston (6-1, 3-1)
Houston scored 27+ points in all its wins.
Cougars’ only loss: 35-11 at home to Texas Tech.
Houston has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Cougars have 92 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Weigman started five games at Texas A&M last year.
Houston is 3-6-1 ATS last 10 games as a road underdog.
In his career, Fritz is 16-19-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Houston is 12-17-1 ATS in last 30 conference games.
Cougars are 8-12 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
Over is 5-1 in Houston’s last six games.
Arizona State (5-2, 3-1)
ASU’s last three wins were by 3-3-4 points.
Last five games, ASU is +8 in turnovers.
ASU has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Sun Devils have 76 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Leavitt started 13 games last year.
Under Dillingham, Sun Devils are 16-6-1 ATS in Big X games.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 8-2-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 6-1-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Dillingham, ASU 11-7-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under is 5-1 in Sun Devils’ last six games.
These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years.
Big X home favorites are 15-6 ATS in conference games.
