Wednesday's Top Action
February 24, 2015
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (17-10) at IOWA HAWKEYES (17-10)
Carver-Hawkeye Arena – Iowa City, Iowa
Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Iowa -7
NCAA hopefuls Iowa and Illinois clash in a must-win conference game for two teams on the tournament bubble.
Iowa and Illinois meet for the only time this season with Iowa looking to pick up its third win in a row while Illinois has struggled to re-acclimate leading scorer, G Rayvonte Rice (15.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG) in dropping their last two games.
The Hawkeyes have been a team of small streaks, the only thing consistent about them being their inconsistency. Their last two wins, on the surface (Wednesday versus Rutgers, Sunday at Nebraska) may not seem impressive, however, the margins of victory – 34 and 28 points respectively – are eye-openers. The 28-point win at Nebraska Sunday was, by far, Nebraska’s most lopsided defeat at home. Notoriously hard to score on in Lincoln, Iowa went 50-50-84 (FG%, 3PT%, FT%) in embarrassing the Cornhuskers.
That Iowa Hawkeyes team, whenever it shows its face, is trouble for even the upper-crust of the conference. Illinois, seemingly clicking without senior leader, Rice (6-3 SU and a three game win streak before he returned) has had their offense take major steps back in his three games returning (squeaking out a 64-52 overtime win over Michigan, scoring 49 and 53 points, respectively in losses to Wisconsin and Michigan State). Dropping this contest to Iowa would require some major Big Ten tournament exploits for Illinois to make the NCAA’s.
Iowa has one trend going for them in conference play: When they win, they cover; when they lose, they don’t (8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS). They’re mediocre at home in conference (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) owning an impressive win versus No. 14 Maryland, but following that up with a disappointing loss versus Minnesota. Illinois has found some consistency in its last five with wins and covers as well (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) and are just as consistent across both categories on the road in conference play (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS). Historically, Illinois has enjoyed success recently (4-2 SU) when playing at Iowa in the past six games (since Mar. 2008).
The total in this series in Iowa City has also gone Under seven of the last eight times.
There are no new injuries, but Illinois G Aaron Cosby (7.8 PPG) who was suspended indefinitely has now officially left the team.
One of the best examples of how important ever-intangible “team chemistry” is is the age-old example of “team plays great in absence of best player; team falters upon best player’s return”. Unfortunately, Illinois is right in the thick of that quandary at the worst possible time, as they’ve played disjointed and uninspiring basketball upon the return of Rayvonte Rice. While Rice has done his fair share to contribute (9.7 PPG, 29% FG, 31 MPG) in the three games he’s been back for, he’s not alone.
F Malcolm Hill (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.1 APG, 45% FG) had averaged 17 points per game in Rice’s absence. Nobody’s mistaking Hill for Magic Johnson, but he’d passed out 1.3 assists per game in that span.
In three games since Rice’s return, Hill hasn’t dished out one assist. G Kendrick Nunn (11.5 PPG, 1.7 threes/game on 40% 3PT) had flourished to average 16.6 points per game in Rice’s absence, while upping his assists (4.1/game) and nailing 2.6 threes per game at a 43% clip. In the last three games, though, Nunn has dropped back down to 11.7 points per game on 31% from the field, and has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1:1. That turnovers are a recent issue is a surprise, because as a team, Illinois usually is very good at protecting the basketball (9.7 TO/game, 13th in NCAA; +3.4 TO margin).
C Nnanna Egwu (6.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG) as he’s been able to stay on the floor (which is always the biggest asset to Head Coach John Groce) and blocked seven shots in his last three. Egwu will be sorely needed against Iowa, as the Hawkeyes boast one of the taller frontcourts in the nation and are one of the best rebounding teams in the conference.
The formula for victory in conference play has been very simple for Iowa: Win the rebounding battle and win the game (all eight conference wins have been with Iowa winning on the boards). Now, the Hawkeyes are inconsistent enough with the rest of their play to dominate on the boards and lose (see at Purdue, where Iowa shot 32% FG). Leading the charge lately has been senior leader, F Aaron White (14.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 51% FG), who’s really been hitting the glass in his last five games (9.6 RPG). White has two of his three double-doubles on the season in his past three games, with his 18-point, 11-rebound performance in the drubbing of Nebraska being arguably his best performance of the season.
White’s wingman, F Jarrod Uthoff (12.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG) has also raised his play in the last four games. A lanky sharpshooter with a high basketball IQ, Uthoff has produced all over the stat sheet lately (16.8 PPG, 2 BPG, 1.5 SPG, 49% FG, 47% 3PT 2.3 threes/game). Uthoff’s threes are very important because Iowa doesn’t really make it’s mark from out there (33% 3PT, 237th in NCAA). Every bit of space that Iowa can get to free up White and their other big men, C Adam Woodbury (7.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and F Gabriel Olaseni (8.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.6 BPG – in 18 MPG) is gravy to Iowa’s offense. Given the need for perimeter production, the emergence of G Peter Jok (7.4 PPG, 37% 3PT) might be what’s boosted Iowa’s play the most recently.
Jok has hit double figures in five of the Hawkeye’s past six contests (11.7 PPG) and has poured in 12 threes over that span. Iowa consistently dominates on the boards (37.2 RPG, 2nd Big Ten, +3.9 margin) and all their frontcourt players (at 6’9” or taller) are bigger than Illinois’ biggest player (Egwu) so expect this trend to continue.
BAYLOR BEARS (20-7) at IOWA STATE CYCLONES (20-6)
James H. Hilton Coliseum – Ames, Iowa
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Iowa State -7
No. 19 Baylor heads to Ames for a huge conference battle with No. 12 Iowa State on Wednesday.
No. 19 Baylor hosted Kansas State on Saturday and came away with a 69-42 victory as a 9-point home favorite. The Bears have now won two straight games, but they are just 2-2 SU in their past four games. One major positive to take away from their last two victories is that they held their opponents to just 45.5 PPG in those contests.
No. 12 Iowa State, meanwhile, has now won-and-covered in three straight games and four of their past five after beating the Longhorns 85-77 as 3-point underdogs in Austin on Saturday. The Cyclones were on fire in that game, shooting 46.4% from the field and 57.1% from behind the arc. This Iowa State team has now shot 45% or better from the field in 10 of its past 14 games.
These two conference foes last met on Jan. 14, when Baylor beat Iowa State 74-73 as a 2-point home favorite. The Cyclones have gotten the better of the Bears recently, however, going 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 meetings. Iowa State has also won-and-covered in its past seven games hosting Baylor. The Bears have not performed too well against Big 12 opponents this year, going just 8-6 SU and 6-8 ATS. They are also just 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS in away games this season. Iowa State, meanwhile, is 11-0 SU and 6-5 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Cyclones are also 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS versus conference opponents.
G Dee Durham (Wrist) is out indefinitely for Baylor and Iowa State is not currently dealing with any injuries.
Baylor plays a very balanced style of basketball, consistently getting the job done on both ends of the floor. The Bears are averaging 69.2 PPG (132nd in NCAA) on 43.2% FG (195th in NCAA) and they’re also allowing an impressive 58.8 PPG (19th in NCAA). This team is very good on the glass (40.5 RPG, 5th in NCAA) and also knows how to get into passing lanes (7.5 SPG, 55th in NCAA).
The most important player for this Baylor team on Wednesday will be F Rico Gathers (11.2 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.0 BPG). Gathers is an absolute monster on the glass and is also a handful to guard around the basket. He had 13 points, 10 rebounds, three steals and two blocks in a win over Kansas State on Saturday and will need to be active on both ends of the floor against Iowa State. Gathers had 14 points and 15 rebounds in 32 minutes when the Bears beat the Cyclones in their past meeting and will need to do more of the same this time around.
F Royce O’Neale (9.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.1 SPG) was on fire in that game, finishing with 15 points (6-for-8 FG, 3-for-5 3PT) and six rebounds in 36 minutes. The forward is a monster on the glass and is also one of this team’s best outside shooters (44% 3PT). His versatility is a huge asset and he should be in for a big game on Wednesday.
G Kenny Cherry (11.3 PPG, 3.9 APG, 2.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG) has really struggled the past two games, scoring just 11 points total over 64 minutes of action. Cherry had 13 points (4-for-16 FG) and four assists the last time he met Baylor, but he shot the ball horribly and this team needs him to be more efficient.
F Taurean Prince (13.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 1.0 BPG) came off the bench the last time he faced Iowa State. He had just five points in that game and will most certainly be more effective this time around. He is averaging 17.0 PPG over the past five contests and is this team’s most consistent scorer.
Iowa State runs one of the best offenses in the nation, putting up 79.8 PPG (9th in NCAA) on 48.6% FG (12th in NCAA). This team moves the ball extremely well (16.9 APG, 7th in NCAA) and also crashes the boards (36.5 RPG, 76th in NCAA). Defensively the team struggles though, allowing 69.0 PPG (251st in NCAA) thanks to some rather poor rim protection (3.9 BPG, 119th in NCAA).
F Georges Niang (14.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.4 APG) is the Cyclones’ most versatile player and he will need to play well against Baylor in this one. Niang does a little bit of everything for this group, hitting the glass and unselfishly finding his teammates when his shot is off. He is one of the best shooters they have (41% 3PT) and can’t afford to struggle like he did the last time he met the Bears. Niang had just 10 points (4-for-13 FG) and five rebounds in the loss in Waco and his team needs him to put it all together on Wednesday.
G Monte Morris (10.9 PPG, 5.4 APG, 3.6 RPG, 1.7 SPG) is the reason this team passes so well. Morris is an extremely unselfish guard that puts his teammates in the best positions to score. He is also a capable scorer and he’ll need to be aggressive when things get stagnant on Wednesday. Morris had 11 points, nine assists, seven rebounds and two steals in 38 minutes of action when the Cyclones lost to Baylor last game. He’ll need to bring that same energy this time around.
One guy who really got hot in the loss to the Bears in January was G Naz Long (11.2 PPG). Long played one of his best games of the season in that one, pouring in 19 points (7-for-8 FG, 5-for-5 3PT) in what was a nearly perfect shooting night. He can’t be expected to be that hot once again, but he will need to provide some offense if Iowa State is going to keep their home winning streak alive against Baylor.
G Bryce Dejean-Jones (12.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.2 SPG) will also need to play a good game for this team to win. Dejean-Jones was excellent against Texas Saturday, finishing with 16 points and four rebounds in 27 minutes of action. He had 14 points, four assists and four rebounds in 33 minutes against Baylor in Waco and that type of all-around play will come a long way in helping his team earn a big home victory.
