Tuesday's Top Action
February 23, 2015
WISCONSIN BADGERS (25-2) at MARYLAND TERRAPINS (22-5)
XFINITY Center – College Park, MD
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Wisconsin -5.0
The top two squads in the Big Ten clash for the first time as conference members when No. 5 Wisconsin visits No. 14 Maryland.
No. 5 Wisconsin is as hot as any team in the nation not named Kentucky (10 game win streak; winners of 18 of last 19). Over the course of their current win streak, though, they have not faced one top-25 team – this isn’t entirely their fault, as the Big Ten only boasts one other current top-25 team, Maryland.
The Terrapins are 4-1 in their last five games and are undefeated at home (7-0) in conference play. Maryland comes off recent home wins versus Indiana and Nebraska on Feb. 11 and this past Thursday and a road win at Penn State on Feb. 14. The long break will give them plenty of time to prepare for Coach Bo Ryan’s group, but doesn’t statistically provide Maryland with a huge advantage (9-4 SU, 3-8-1 ATS, 68 PPG w/3+ days rest).
Wisconsin is fresh off wins at Penn State and at home versus Minnesota on Wednesday and Saturday, respectively. Both Wisconsin and Maryland have been unreliable ATS in recent games, with both Badger wins last week failing to cover. Wisconsin is 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS) however as a road favorite to date this season and is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games away from the Kohl Center. Maryland has just been awful ATS at home (3-11, 1-5 last five), and is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games.
The Terrapins are 0-1 SU (0-1 ATS) as a home underdog this season (Virginia). The total has gone Over in four of the last six contests Wisconsin has played on the road, while Maryland’s total has gone Under in four of its past six games. Historically, Wisconsin is 3-2 SU (3-2 ATS) since 2000 with these two teams last facing off in Jan. 2009.
G Traevon Jackson (9.4 PPG), who’s missed the Badgers last 10 games, will travel with the team to College Park but is not expected to play.
At the top of the list of things to watch for the Badgers will be how undefeated fill-in G Bronson Koenig (7.7 PPG, 2.3 APG, 40% 3PT) fares in his toughest individual matchup to date (Maryland’s stud freshman G Melo Trimble – 16.1 PPG, 3.1 APG), especially with the return of Jackson on the horizon. Koenig struggled in his only confrontation with an elite counterpart (Penn State’s D.J. Newbill), and if Trimble poses problems, then Coach Bo Ryan could conceivably reinstate Jackson as the starter when healthy for the defensive advantage the Badgers gain. Wisconsin’s frontcourt is as good as anyone’s in the nation.
C Frank Kaminsky (17.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 55% FG), F Sam Dekker (13.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 52% FG), and F Nigel Hayes (12.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 53% FG) should feast on Maryland’s lack of beef up front. Kaminsky has eclipsed 20 points in six of his past 10 contests, while Dekker just had a 10 game double-figures scoring streak snapped with an uncharacteristic 5-point outing versus Minnesota.
G Josh Gasser (7.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.3 threes/game) provides the Badgers with a spot-up shooting option and will be asked to have a big role on defense in containing the Terrapins’ multiple perimeter options. While Wisconsin’s scoring defense is largely pace-driven (55.4 PPG, 1st in Big Ten, 8th in NCAA) given that they allow opponents to shoot it decently from the field (44.4% FG defense, 10th Big Ten), the Badgers have started tightening up their grip on opponent’s shooting as of late (held four of last five opponents to 40% or under from the field). This is good because Wisconsin’s points-per-possession numbers have dipped to, gasp, 4th (they were first just last week) in college basketball (1.2 PPP) and Wisconsin’s FG% offense (48%, 2nd Big Ten) has dipped under 40% from the field in three of their past five games (something that hadn’t been done since Dec. 5th versus Marquette).
Maryland boasts an average offense (67 PPG in conference, 6th in Big Ten) predicated on the perimeter play of Trimble, G Dez Wells (14.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.8 APG) and F Jake Layman (13.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 49% FG). Nobody else on the Terrapins averages more than 6.6 PPG (G Richaud Pack) as nobody else besides Pack plays more than 19 minutes per game, either.
Maryland’s big three have been absolutely huge lately, as they’re all shooting above 50% FG in their past three games (Trimble is at 63%). Wells is filling it up to the tune of 18 points per game over his last three, while Trimble – in accordance with his marksmanship from the field – is going off for 21.3 points per game in that same span.
Maryland’s biggest weapon is its ability to get to – and convert – from the charity stripe (25.2% of points come via FT, 12th in NCAA; 74.8% FT, 18th in NCAA). As the conference’s leading free throw shooter at 87.9%, Trimble also leads the league in attempts (190) and is the perfect closer when Maryland has a lead. The Terrapins’ defense is also middle-of-the-road (64.3 PPG-allowed, 121st NCAA; 40.4 FG% defense, 72nd NCAA).
That said, again, they get a huge boost from the free throw line – in this case, the points they prevent from the stripe. Maryland allows only 15.6% of opponents points from the stripe (12th in NCAA) and “holds” opponents to 65.2% FT (1st in Big Ten). Maryland’s last top-10 opponent, Virginia, shot a hair over 70% from the line at the XFINITY Center in December, so the free throw line will be an area of the court to focus on come Tuesday night.
FLORIDA GATORS (13-14) at MISSOURI TIGERS (7-20)
Mizzou Arena - Columbia, MO
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Florida -6.5
The Gators head to Columbia Tuesday to face a Missouri team that has lost 13 straight games.
Florida has been miserable lately, losing 70-63 as 5-point underdogs at LSU for its fifth SU loss in six games. The Gators are also 2-4 ATS in those contests and they haven’t scored 65+ points in eight straight games. They will need to start playing better offensively or it will be extremely difficult for them to crawl out of this hole and even make the NIT Tournament. Fortunately for Florida, the team is now facing a Missouri team that lost its 13th straight game in a 76-53 defeat at Vanderbilt on Saturday.
The Tigers are 4-8-1 ATS over the course of their losing streak and they have not been good on either side of the ball. The most recent meeting between these two teams was a 72-49 victory for Florida in the SEC Tournament last season. Florida has won three of the past four games between these teams SU, but Missouri is 2-2 ATS in those games and won-and-covered the only time they hosted the Gators. The past three games played between these teams also happened to go Under the total. Florida has struggled when being a favorite on the road, going just 1-4 SU and ATS this season. Missouri, meanwhile, is 1-6 SU but 3-4 ATS as a home underdog.
F Dorian Finney-Smith (Suspension) will miss the game against Missouri and G Michael Frazier II (Ankle), C John Egbunu (Eligibility), G Brandone Francis (Academics) and G DeVon Walker (Knee) are either out indefinitely or for the season for Florida. G Wes Clark (Knee) is out for the season for Missouri.
Florida has been extremely disappointing this season and a lot of that has to do with its poor offense. The Gators are scoring just 64.8 PPG (242nd in NCAA) on 43.3% shooting (192nd in NCAA) and that is not going to cut it. Defensively they’ve been a lot better, allowing just 59.8 PPG (28th in NCAA).
This team is extremely depleted due to injuries and suspensions and the Gators are now heavily relying on the play of G Eli Carter (8.9 PPG) and F Devin Robinson (6.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG). Carter is a streaky player for the Gators and is coming off of a game where he had 14 points, four rebounds and three assists in a loss at LSU. Carter is a volume scorer and can score in a number of ways, but he’s really struggled from behind the arc this season (30% 3PT). He will need to find his stroke in order to get this team back to .500 on Tuesday. Devin Robinson has performed extremely well for a first-year player, averaging 12.0 PPG and 6.5 RPG over the past two games.
Robinson is tough to guard around the basket and he’ll need to continue to grow as a player this season. C Jon Horford (6.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG) is a tough player inside, but he doesn’t necessarily do anything well for this Gators team. He had six points, nine rebounds and three blocks against LSU but he has not been the type of offensive player that Billy Donovan had hoped he’d be. He has a solid jumper and passes very well for a big man, but he has not translated those skills into stats or wins.
G Kasey Hill (7.2 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.0 SPG) had a good game against LSU on Saturday, finishing with nine points, five assists, four rebounds and four steals in 37 minutes. Hill had big expectations coming into the season, but he has not lived up to them. He’s going to need to play out his mistakes the rest of the season in order to be an impact player a year from now.
Missouri has been one of the worst teams in the nation this year, struggling mightily on both ends of the floor. The team is scoring just 61.7 PPG (305th in NCAA) on 41.0% shooting (293rd in NCAA) and allowing a miserable 69.5 PPG (263rd in NCAA).
G Wes Clark (10.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.1 APG) was one of this team’s best sources of offense, but he’s out for the season after injuring his knee. Now F Johnathan Williams II (12.4 PPG, 7.0 APG) will need to carry even more of the offensive burden for the Tigers. Williams III really struggled against Vanderbilt last game, finishing with just six points in 21 minutes and he also got himself into foul trouble. He’ll need to stay disciplined against Florida because he is this team’s leading scorer and rebounder. He also happens to be one of the best shooters (37% 3PT) they have as well. If he can stay on the court, he should be able to give the Gators some problems.
G Keith Shamburger (8.5 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG) will have to play a very good game for this Tigers team on Tuesday. He had nine points, eight assists and four rebounds against Vanderbilt on Saturday and plays with an extremely high motor at all times. Shamburger fills up the stat sheet and does everything his coach asks of him on a nightly basis. If he can limit his turnovers and stay out of foul trouble, he should give a weak Gators backcourt some serious issues.
G Montaque Gill-Caesar (9.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG) has scored 11 points in back-to-back games for this team. He has been getting consistent minutes, but will need to find a way to knock down some shots. He has struggled with his outside shooting over the past three games (1-for-12 3PT) and will not help this team if he is not knocking down open jumpers.
